Dissertation

DISSERTATION Titel der Dissertation „ACHIEVING SECURITY AND STABILITY IN THE REGION OF SOUTH CAUCASUS: WHAT ROLE FOR INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS? Study on the role and effectiveness of the UN, the OSCE, the CIS and the EU in facilitation of the conflict resolution in South Caucasus“ Verfasserin Mag. Esmira Jafarova angestrebter akademischer Grad Doktor der Philosophie (Dr. phil) Wien, 2011 Studienkennzahl lt. A-092 300 Studienblatt: Dissertationsgebiet lt. Dr.-Studium der Philosophie UniStG Studienblatt: Politikwissenschaft Betreuer: Otmar Höll, tit. Ao. Univ.-Prof. CONTENTS Acknowledgement and dedication 5 INTRODUCTION 6 Chapter I: SOUTH CAUCASUS IN A PERSPECTIVE 12 1. South Caucasus republics after independence: challenges of transition 12 1.1. Democracy, human rights 14 1.2. Elections 18 1.3. Security sector 20 1.4. Economic challenges 21 2. Interests of key players in South Caucasus 28 2.1. Russia 29 2.2. United States 33 2.3. Turkey 36 2.4. Iran 38 2.5. Actors’ interactions 39 3. Summing up 42 Chapter II: SECURITY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS: Long-standing conflicts in the South Caucasus – “landmines” with delayed action 44 1. Conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region 44 1.1. Roots of the conflict 45 1.2. Contemporary stage of the conflict 49 2. Conflicts within Georgia 52 2.1. Abkhazia 52 2.2. South Ossetia 56 2.3. Russian role in Georgian conflicts and August 2008 war 60 3. Summing up 66 Chapter III: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 67 1. Regime theory framework 67 1.1. Actors’ interests (concerned powerful actors) 73 1.2. Problem solving capacity 74 1.3. Nature of the problem (problem structure) 76 2. Theoretical approaches to international mediation 78 3. Theoretical approaches to explaining the EU role 80 3.1. Intergovernmentalism 81 3.2. Neofunctionalism 83 4. Summing up 85 Chapter IV. ROLES of the UN and the CIS: ANALYSIS of THEIR EFFECTIVENESS 87 1. United Nations contribution to conflict resolution in the South Caucasus region: the case of Abkhazia 87 1.1. UN role in IDP return 93 2 2. Commonwealth of Independent States in Abkhazia– convoluted assistance 95 3. Analysis of effectiveness from the prisms of regime theory 101 3.1. First hypothesis: powerful actors’ interests 102 3.2. Second hypothesis: problem solving capacity 108 General conclusions 113 4. Summing up 116 Chapter V. INVOLVEMENT of the OSCE and ANALYSIS of ITS EFFECTIVENESS 118 1. OSCE as a mediator in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan 118 1.1 Nagorno-Karabakh and the CSCE Budapest Summit 123 1.2. Nagorno-Karabakh is on the agenda of CSCE Lisbon Summit 123 1.3. Next stage in the mediation process: The Minsk Group proposals for peaceful resolution 125 1.4. Tet-a-tet: where is the solution? 128 2. OSCE role in South Ossetian conflict 133 2.1. Negotiation formats and peacekeeping 133 2.2. Initiatives for peaceful settlement of the conflict 138 2.3. OSCE contribution to economic development of the region 140 3. Analysis of effectiveness from the prisms of regime theory and theoretical approach to international mediation 144 3.1. OSCE Minsk Group activity in Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict through regime theory hypotheses 144 3.1.1. First hypothesis: powerful actors’ interests 144 3.1.2. Second hypothesis: Problem solving capacity 150 General conclusions 151 3.2. OSCE Minsk Group effectiveness/success through theoretical approach to international mediation 153 3.3. Analyzing OSCE effectiveness in Georgia through regime theory hypotheses 157 3.3.1. First hypothesis: powerful actors’ interests 157 3.3.2. Second hypothesis: problem solving capacity 162 General conclusions 164 4. Summing up 166 Chapter VI: ROLE of the EU and EVALUATION of the EU CONLFICT RESOLUTION POLICY TOWARDS SOUTH CAUCASUS 168 1. European Union – low profile vs. the necessity for stronger role 168 1.1. First period - from “low profile” to increasing attention 168 1.2. Second period - increased role: desired, but volatile 171 2. Evaluating the EU conflict resolution approach 180 General conclusions 185 3 3. Summing up 188 Chapter VII: NATURE OF THE PROBLEM IN SOUTH CAUCASUS CONFLICTS 189 1. Views of the conflicting parties on the nature of the problem 189 1.1. Azerbaijan and Armenia 191 1.2. Georgia and its breakaway republics 198 2. Principles of territorial integrity and self-determination: the acrimonious debate in international law 203 3. Impact of the nature of the conflict on the effectiveness of the institutions 219 4. Summing up. 223 CONCLUSION 224 BIBLIOGRAPHY 229 Annex A 247 Abbreviations 250 4 DEDICATION AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work is dedicated to the dear memory of my mother, who had inspired me to stay motivated and accomplish this undertaking. I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisors Ao. Univ.-Prof Otmar Höll and Univ. - Doz. Gernot Stimmer, whose supervision and recommendations have been instrumental to write this work. My thanks also extent to the members of the Examination Committee in the field of Political Science for their contribution. Finally, I want to thank my husband Elchin, whose support and understanding kept me going throughout the time I was writing this dissertation. 5 INTRODUCTION This scholarly work aims to focus on the roles of four institutions – the UN, the CIS, the OSCE and the EU – in the process of conflict resolution in South Caucasus and wherever applicable, the analysis of their effectiveness in facilitating the achievement of final settlement. The reason why the “effectiveness analysis” is specified with the words “wherever appropriate” is due to the fact that [as it will be further described in the work], effectiveness analysis in the case of the latter institution – the EU, which unlike the previous three institutions has until recent times maintained rather distant conflict resolution approach – would risk to bring to fallacious conclusions. In the case with the EU, the overall evaluation of its conflict resolution strategy will be made, instead of the mentioned “effectiveness analysis”. For the above purpose, this work at the outset will provide the empirical data and historic excursion to the involvement of the four institutions in conflict resolution, well as the overview to the South Caucasus conflicts – Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Abkhazian and South Ossetian conflicts within Georgia. On the basis of this empirical data, the subsequent analysis of their effectiveness and evaluation of their policies will be conducted. In order to analyze the effectiveness of the UN, the CIS and the OSCE in addressing the conflict cases in the South Caucasus and evaluate the EU involvement in conflict resolution, the assumptions of the “effectiveness” concept of regime theory, theoretical approaches to the study of international mediation and theoretical approaches to the study of European integration [intergovernmentalism and neofunctionalism] are chosen as theoretical frameworks. Although some scholarly works have been previously written on the subject, the originality to this dissertation is added by virtue of the fact that it attempts to explore the effectiveness and evaluate the policies of these institutions by incorporating various assumptions of regime theory, theoretical approaches to international mediation and theoretical approaches to the study of European integration. Moreover, provided that the in scholarly literature, regime theory and its “effectiveness” concept were mostly researched and applied to international environmental regimes, and study on the effectiveness of non-environmental regimes from the perspective of the regime theory seems lagging behind, this work is one of the humble attempts to fill this gap. 6 The effectiveness of the UN, the CIS and the OSCE will be attempted to be analyzed from the prisms of two regime theory hypotheses: 1. Actors’ interests: Interests and preferences of the concerned powerful states influence the effectiveness of the UN, the OSCE and the CIS to facilitate the achievement of a final solution to the conflicts in the South Caucasus republics. 2. Problem solving capacity: Problem solving capacity of the organizations influence the effectiveness of the UN, the OSCE and the CIS to facilitate the achievement of a final settlement to the conflicts in the South Caucasus republics. Problem solving capacity will be measured against three determinants: 1) the institutional setting or the rule of the game; 2) the distribution of power among the actors involved; 3) efforts directed to achievement of cooperative solutions. The reason why the aforementioned two hypotheses are tested together is because of the fact that they are interconnected, i.e. problem solving capacities of the institutions are to a great extent influenced by actors’ interests, therefore, these two hypotheses will be considered in conjunction with each-other. Moreover, it should be especially emphasized that although “actors’ interests” element is often seen as one of the determinants of organizations’ problem solving capacity, in this work it is taken as an independent variable influencing the effectiveness of the institutions due to the strength of this determinant in the context of the current research. The mentioned regime theory hypotheses will mostly explain the cases of the UN, the CIS and the OSCE [particularly its role in South Ossetia] effectiveness. However, in the case of the CIS one determinant of problem solving effectiveness [institutional setting/rule of the game] will not be applicable. In the case of the OSCE Minsk Group the first hypothesis of the regime theory [influence of powerful states] cannot really explain the effectiveness of the OSCE Minsk Group, but can help to highlight the internal dynamics within this entity. Only the third determinant [efforts directed to achievement of cooperative solutions] of the second hypothesis [problem solving capacity] will applicable to this case. This is due to the fact that the Minsk Group is not a full-fledged regime and hence, has no decision making procedures, and power balance within this entity is not disturbed.

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