THINK TANK REVIEW FEBRUARY 2021 Council Library ISSUE 86

Council of the European Union General Secretariat

THINK TANK REVIEW FEBRUARY 2021 Council Library ISSUE 86

This Think Tank Review* covers articles and reports published in January relating to different political and policy topics (twitter link).

Marking a year since the Covid-19 outbreak, reports review the management of the crisis in EU and OECD countries. They focus on the economic losses suffered by EU citizens and companies as a result of border closures and travel restrictions. They also compare and evaluate common Covid-19 measures across different countries. In particular, publications:  analyse cases of state aid to compensate undertakings for damage directly caused by an exceptional occurrence such as the Covid-19 outbreak;  comment on the flaws in European welfare states which have become more visible, a fact which could spur the renewal and reinforcement of those welfare states after decades of cuts and privatisation;  discuss public opinion on vaccination and EU action to boost vaccination communication;  note the need to consider digitisation and connectivity as a common, public or collective good to bridge the various societal gaps widened by Covid-19;  assess some of the preliminary effects that the pandemic has had on democracy in the region in the last 10 months;  reflect on the ways in which Covid-19 is leading to the transformation of national /European strategies and international relations; and  discuss Chinese health diplomacy during the Covid-19 crisis, calling for European involvement with foreign states on a multilateral and bilateral level, with a particular eye to post-Covid times.

EU POLICY AREAS

Papers review the relationship between green transition goals and European initiatives to reduce dependence on third countries for strategic raw materials, explain the divergent positions of various parties on explicit sovereign debt restructuring in a future EMU, analyse the new challenges of globalisation for economic policy and how the SURE instrument (support to mitigate unemployment risks in an emergency) can protect employment, and look at the role of railways and airports in the European Green Deal.

On the 10th anniversary of the European External Action Service, reports reappraise its actual and potential mission to forge a distinctly European brand of diplomacy and play a leading role in the international landscape. In terms of a shared vision in defence matters, the proposed Strategic Compass provides a framework for the member states to think, act and work together as Europeans.

* This collection of abstracts and links was compiled by the Council Library of the General Secretariat of the EU Council for information purposes only. The content links are the sole responsibility of their authors. Publications linked from this review do not represent the positions, policies or opinions of the Council of the EU or the European Council.

On EU-USA relations, publications point out that Europeans’ attitudes towards the US are optimistic after the 2020 US election and that the transatlantic partnership has a future; they also argue that with the Biden presidency the US and the EU have a strong interest in forging a new, more balanced partnership. Biden's presidency offers opportunities for a coordinated allied approach to technological and economic competition with China.

The TTR can be downloaded from Council's Library blog. TTR articles are available via Eureka, the resource discovery service of the Council Libraries.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS SPECIAL FOCUS - COVID 19 5 SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS 10 SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES 11 Competitiveness (Internal Market, Industry, Research and Space) 11 Economic and Financial Affairs 12 Education / Youth / Culture / Sport 13 Employment / Social Policy / Health and Consumer Affairs 13 Environmental Issues 14 Justice and Home Affairs 15 Transport / Telecommunications / Energy 16

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS 18 Foreign and Security Policy / Defence 18 Development 21 Trade 21 Africa 22 Asia-Oceania 22 Eastern Partnership 23 Middle East / North Africa (MENA) 23 Western Balkans 24 China 24 Russia 25 United Kingdom / Brexit 25 United States of America 25

SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES 27 Bulgaria 27 Denmark 27 Germany 27 Greece 28 Spain 28 France 28 Italy 29 Latvia 29 Lithuania 29 Hungary 29

MISCELLANEOUS 30

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SPECIAL FOCUS - COVID-19

dominated public attention, this paper assesses the role played by decision-makers in the EU, particularly in Finland. (16 p.)

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE

Taking stock of regional democratic trends SPECIAL FOCUS - COVID 19 in Europe before and during the Covid-19 pandemic BRUEGEL This brief provides an overview of the state The nonsense of Next Generation EU net of democracy in Europe at the end of 2019, balance calculations prior to the outbreak of the pandemic, and then assesses some of the preliminary by Zsolt Darvas impacts that the pandemic has had on democracy in the region in the last 10 The estimation of payments from the EU’s months. (30 p.) Covid-19 economic recovery fund, Next Generation EU (NGEU), to each EU country in 2021-2026 involves uncertainties, yet the TERRA NOVA overall magnitudes can be estimated with a reasonable degree of precision. The author Le grand paradoxe – ou pourquoi le règne suggests instead of concentrating on net du cash est loin de s’achever balances, NGEU should help to focus more by Marc Schwartz @Schwartz_MA and Yannis on effective, efficient and fair ways of Messaoui spending EU money and the long-term benefits countries can derive from it. (16 p.) Despite fears linked to the Covid-19 pandemic and to the transmission of the virus INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS by cash, largely unfounded, the circulation of ESTRATÉGICOS cash has seen a sharp increase in 2020: + 10% for the euro and + 15% for the dollar. ¿Quo vadis Europa? This dynamic is probably linked to a hoarding phenomenon. Contrary to popular belief, the by Begoña Ochoa de Olza Amat health crisis has sparked a real “cash rush”. (FR - 33 p.) Covid-19 will have long-term structural consequences: transformation of strategies at national and European level and in BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG international relations. The paper examines this situation by analysing both the measures Major differences in the conditions for taken by the EU and the international successful Covid-19 crisis management environment. (ES - 25 p.) Ungleiche Ausgangsbedingungen für erfolgreiches Covid-19-Krisenmanagement

ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH by Christof Schiller and Thorsten Hellmann INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) @th_hellmann

An abrupt awakening to the realities of a This paper compares the conditions in EU pandemic: learning lessons from the onset and OECD countries that contribute to of Covid-19 in the EU and Finland Covid-19 crisis management. It finds that the observed countries vary considerably in by Mika Aaltola @MikaAaltola, Johanna Ketola terms of their pre-crisis socioeconomic @jmketo, Aada Peltonen @aada_peltonen et al. conditions and capacity for political reform. These differences are likely to grow as the From January 2020 onwards, the pandemic Covid-19 crisis continues. (EN - 21 p. / DE - had become a prevailing theme of politics 21 p.) and decision-making. As Covid-19

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TÆNKETANKEN EUROPA EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE / ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE Konsekvenser for EU’s indre marked af FOR ADVANCED STUDIES coronakrisens første bølge State aid in the context of the Covid-19 The report provides an overall overview of outbreak, including the temporary the economic losses, which EU countries framework 2020 have suffered the most, and the barriers in the form of border closures and travel by Antonios Bouchagiar restrictions that arose for citizens and companies when the EU countries closed This paper concerns a chapter on the down in the spring of 2020. (DA - 86 p.) application of the EU state aid rules in the context of the Covid-19 outbreak. It addresses certain amendments to EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT regulations and guidelines, which were POLICY MANAGEMENT (ECDPM) adjusted in view of that outbreak. It analyses cases of aid to compensate undertakings for Team Europe: up to the challenge? damage directly caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. (69 p.) by Alexei Jones and Chloe Teevan @ChloeTvan

This brief presents how the Team Europe EUROPEAN TRADE UNION INSTITUTE approach has been applied to date, and explores the prospects, added value and Social policy in the European Union: state challenges in terms of the EU and member of play 2020 states (MS) working better together, enhanced visibility and the possibility of a by Bart Vanhercke, Slavina Spasova @SlavinaSpasova stronger voice in multilateral fora. The Team and Boris Fronteddu @BorisFronteddu (eds.) Europe approach was born in the context of Covid-19 and was initially conceived as a This publication analyses key developments way to brand European collective support to in the EU social agenda during 2019 and partner countries in response to the describes the initial Covid-19-driven EU and pandemic. (20 p.) domestic policies between January and July 2020. By doing this, it aims to contribute to the debate between policymakers, social EUROPEAN THINK TANKS GROUP stakeholders and the research community, while providing accessible information and Mind the Gap? Sketching the relevance of analysis for practitioners and students of the 2030 Agenda for the Green Deal and European integration. (223 p.) other key EU policies in the context of the Covid-19 crisis FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH by Christine Hackenesch @CHackenesch, Maximilian EBERT FOUNDATION) / SOCIAL EUROPE Högl @MaximilianHoegl, Julian Bergmann PUBLISHING @bergmann_jph et al. by Kathleen Lynch, Kate Pickett, Richard Wilkinson et al. The consequences of Covid-19 will shape The coronavirus crisis and the welfare state European policies and politics for years to come. Europe is lacking behind particularly The coronavirus crisis has highlighted the on the Sustainable Development Goals flaws in European welfare states, which can related to agriculture, climate change and spur their renewal and reinforcement after biodiversity and in strengthening decades of cuts and privatisation. This report convergence of living standards. The addresses what a 21st-century welfare state pandemic has made these SDGs even more should look like for all of Europe. difficult to achieve by 2030. (25 p.) Underpinning all these considerations is a vision of a welfare state which provides equal autonomy for all to pursue their life goals, in solidarity with others. (87 p.)

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WISSENSCHAFTSZENTRUM BERLIN FÜR RAND EUROPE SOZIALFORSCHUNG (SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH CENTER BERLIN) The coronavirus pandemic highlights why family caregivers need to be integrated into Unemployment in Europe and the United the health care team and shows us how to States under Covid-19: better constrained in make it happen the corset of an insurance logic or at the whim of a liberal presidential system? by Esther M. Friedman, Patricia K. Tong and Robert S. Rudin by Georg Fischer and Günther Schmid The authors describe why, in light of the The effects that the economic crisis triggered coronavirus disease, it is more critical than by Covid-19 is having on unemployment ever to integrate family caregivers into could hardly differ more than in the US and patients' health care teams and highlight Europe. This divergence also applies to the several solutions for accomplishing this goal. political reactions to it. This essay argues (8 p.) that the European approach promises a more humane and effective solution to the LEIBNIZ INSTITUTE SAFE - SUSTAINABLE crisis, but only if the EU and its MS find a way ARCHITECTURE FOR FINANCE IN EUROPE to combine short-time work with more forward-looking labour market and social Motivated beliefs and the elderly’s policies. (48 p.) compliance with Covid-19 measures

by Ferdinand A. von Siemens CORPORATE EUROPE OBSERVATORY This note shows that motivated beliefs can When the market becomes deadly: how explain why the elderly do not comply better pressures towards privatisation of health with Covid-19 measures than age groups and long-term care put Europe on a poor less threatened by the disease. The footing for a pandemic argument is that compliance might reveal by Rachel Tansey and James O’Nions (ed.) having a weak constitution, thereby increasing anxiety. If people receive utility From hospitals to care homes, the evidence from believing to be strong, there can exist a is mounting that outsourcing and private separating equilibrium in which only weak provision of healthcare has significantly people comply with the Covid-19 measures. degraded EU MS’ capacity to deal effectively (12 p.) with Covid-19. The paper suggests that EU must reject the private sector lobbyists now REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO whispering in its ear, and reverse course on ROYAL INSTITUTE) the kind of economic governance which has accelerated healthcare liberalisation, instead El impacto del Covid-19: la digitalización putting public provision at the centre of its como bien común strategy. (26 p.) by Andrés Ortega Klein @andresortegak

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK The pandemic has accelerated and stressed the importance of digitisation and Covid-19 vaccination campaigns: the public connectivity. The author discusses the need dimension to consider digitisation as a common, public by Nicole Scholz or collective good (in its economic, not legal, sense) that will help bridge the various gaps This briefing discusses the public opinion on widened with Covid-19 in societies and vaccination, the EU action to boost between them. (ES - 24 p.) vaccination communication and how international bodies as well as different stakeholder within society strive to optimise Covid-19 vaccine uptake. (12 p.)

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RAND EUROPE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL A comparison of national and international ASSISTANCE approaches to Covid-19-related measures Taking stock of regional democratic trends by Mahshid Abir, Megan K. Beckett, Wenjing Huang et al. in Africa and the Middle East before and during the Covid-19 pandemic The authors examine measures used in the early stages of the pandemic (December This brief provides an overview of the state 2019 – May 2020) and find tremendous of democracy in Africa and the Middle East variability in how different countries and US at the end of 2019, prior to the outbreak of states measure and report on Covid-19 the pandemic, and then assesses some of indicators. They make recommendations for the preliminary impacts that the pandemic the use and development of measures that has had on democracy in the region in the would allow for more standardised and valid last 10 months. (42 p.) comparisons. (104 p.)

EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE FOR GOVERNMENT POLICY MANAGEMENT (ECDPM)

Coronavirus: no going back to normal Simmering tensions: the long-term impact of Covid-19 on fragility and conflict in Africa by Bronwen Maddox @bronwenmaddox by Ashley Neat @NeatAshley and Sophie Desmidt The author suggests that life after the @SophieDesmidt pandemic will not feel like life before. Therefore, it is best that governments This note looks at the long-term impact of acknowledge that and start planning now in Covid-19 on fragility and conflict in Africa. order to capture the best that can come out Responding to the long-term challenges of a very tough period while not raising highlighted by the pandemic will require expectations that life will suddenly snap back sustained and concerted efforts, particularly to now an almost forgotten normal. (6 p.) ahead of the vaccination campaign expected to start later this year. (18 p.) INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS TERRA NOVA

El impacto de Covid-19 en la narrativa Russia’s policy response to Covid, its estratégica internacional economic benefits and human losses by Juan Luis Manfredi Sánchez @juanmanfredi by Sergei Guriev @sguriev

This paper sheds light on the Covid crisis The brief asks what is the impact of the through the strategic narrative, which reflects epidemic and why did Putin’s regime choose international communication and political economy over peoples’ lives? The answer to leadership. It shows a comparative this question requires understanding the perspective of the use of the strategic nature of modern Russia’s political system. narrative for the foreign policy objectives and (4 p.) highlights the risks of 'deinstitutionalisation' of international communication. (ES - 14 p.) STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS)

Chinas Gesundheitsdiplomatie in Zeiten von Corona

by Moritz Rudolf @MoritzRudolf

International cooperation in the health sector has been part of the Belt Road Initiative for

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SPECIAL FOCUS - COVID-19 more than five years. This paper discusses the measures of Chinese health diplomacy during Covid-19. To counter these Chinese ambitions, it also calls for European involvement with foreign states on a multilateral and bilateral level - especially in view of post-Covid times. (DE - 8 p.)

FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)

The pandemic of the Covid-19 and its impacts on work and life in South Korea by Shin Kwang-Yeong

Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, the ruling party won a landslide victory in the general election in April 2020, due to the government's swift response to the Covid-19. The Green New Deal, proposed by the government, seems to provide a new vision for Korean society in the post-Covid-19. However, it falls short of a genuinely new provision for the post-Covid-19 pandemic simply because it is an extrapolation of the current rather than a rupture from the current. (17 p.)

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SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS

EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE / ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES

An old couple in a new setting: Franco- German leadership in the post-Brexit EU

by Ulrich Krotz and Lucas Schramm

This report analyses what are the implications of Brexit for the nature, role, and potential of Franco-German leadership in the EU. Brexit, it contends, is both an expression SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS and a further cause of two broader AND INSTITUTIONS underlying developments in the contemporary EU: a stronger and more EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK prominent German part and position; and disintegrative tendencies in several EU The Twitter activity of members of the policy fields and the EU polity as a whole. European Council (11 p.) by Ralf Drachenberg @RalfDrachenberg and Emily Phillips

Given that EU leaders’ tweets on European issues are often picked up less than those on domestic issues, this study looks at whether there is unused potential for them to communicate better on Europe via Twitter, and suggests a number of techniques that might help them better explain Europe to a wider audience through this platform. (72 p.)

ÖSTERREICHISCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR EUROPAPOLITIK (AUSTRIAN SOCIETY FOR EUROPEAN POLITICS)

A smarter funding system for European parties by Louis Drounau @Louis_Drounau

This brief proposes to replace split-envelope budgeting with fixed amounts in order inter alia to: increase financial predictability and parties’ lump sum to improve funding fairness; replace MEP-based with vote- based funding to reward electoral results; and create individual-member-based funding to increase citizen participation. By increasing and better allocating overall public funding, the EU could bring European parties closer to citizens ensuring that all parties, large and small, are given a fair chance in the political arena. (11 p.)

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SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES

different trends relative to the US. The upward markup trend is less pronounced than in the US and markups are positively correlated with productivity and investments, including on innovation; while imported inputs and global value chains have pro- competitive effects. (37 p.)

CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES

Enterprise models and the EU agenda SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES by Donald Kalff This paper argues that the dominant COMPETITIVENESS (INTERNAL enterprise models, the shareholder model MARKET, INDUSTRY, and the stakeholder model, both serve as barriers to the shift from growth-oriented to RESEARCH AND SPACE) sustainable, resilience-oriented capitalism. It BRUEGEL stresses the need for alternative models and sketches the contours of a new competitive The productivity paradox: policy lessons enterprise model that is firmly rooted in from MICROPROD values continental Europeans share. It will be called the EU model. Finally, it proposes by Grégory Claeys @gregclaeys and Maria Demertzis an EU agenda for a level playing field, @mariademertzis because competition between models should be encouraged. (19 p.) The objective of MICROPROD, an EU-wide research project running until the end of LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL 2021, is to understand what is driving the ECONOMY current productivity slowdown and what the potential consequences are for Europe's Knowledge networks in joint research economic model and its citizens’ welfare. projects, innovation and economic growth This brief aims to understand the challenges across European regions posed to Europe by the fourth industrial revolution and its impact on productivity in by Daniela Di Cagno, Andrea Fabrizi, Marco Marini et al. the context of globalisation and digitalisation, and to recommend policies to address these This paper investigates the role played by challenges. (12 p.) the position of European regions in research networks on their rate of innovation and economic growth. The analysis is based on LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL a panel of EU-28 NUTS2 regions ECONOMY participating in EU framework programmes Market power and productivity trends in the observed over the 2004-2014 period. (36 p.) European economies: a macroeconomic perspective by Claudio Battiati, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, Enrico Marvasi @emarvasi et al.

This paper relies on national accounting data to investigate the negative effects of declining competition for four major EU countries: France, Germany, Italy and Spain. It finds that, despite some common trends, EU countries are differentiated and followed

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SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES

INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ECONOMIC AND ESTRATÉGICOS FINANCIAL AFFAIRS Repercusiones estratégicas del desarrollo LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL tecnológico: impacto de las tecnologías ECONOMY emergentes en el posicionamiento estratégico de los países Opening the black box of austerity: by Gonzalo León Serrano evidence from fiscal consolidation plans by Alessandro Franconi This study covers a limited set of technologies selected for their current or This report explores the effects of austerity future strategic impact. It describes the measures on labour markets and on income strategic impact of technological inequality and finds evidence of a development, the status of these mechanism that can mitigate the size of the technologies and their strategic impact, and economic contraction. (26 p.) analyses the concept of technological interdependence. (ES - 400 p.) ZENTRUM FÜR EUROPÄISCHE WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN CAPITAL MARKETS EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH) INSTITUTE / CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES The political economy of euro area sovereign debt restructuring Are European listed corporations short- termist? by Friedrich Heinemann by Karel Lannoo @karel_lannoo, Jesper Lau Hansen This article provides political economic and Apostolos Thomadakis explanations for the divergent positions taken by various parties on explicit sovereign In order to assess the origins of short- debt restructuring in a future EMU. It covers termism in corporate governance, the study the following key players: the EC, the EP, the examines the amount of net corporate funds European Central Bank and the used for pay-outs to shareholders (e.g. governments of high-debt and low-debt euro dividends, shares buybacks). Using a area countries. (26 p.) sample of 4,719 listed companies in 16 European countries over the period 1992- 2018, the study formulates a set of main CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY conclusions. (8 p.) STUDIES / EUROPEAN CREDIT RESEARCH INSTITUTE

INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS Anti-money laundering in the EU: time to ESTRATÉGICOS get serious

Los minerales estratégicos: el ser o no ser by Karel Lannoo @karel_lannoo and Richard Parlour de la descarbonización y la transformación digital de la UE The study argues that it is an illusion to Decarbonisation and digital transformation: believe that a single, Europe-wide to be or not to be dependent on strategic supervisory agency could, in the current minerals circumstances, be the sole solution. Anti- money laundering supervision requires the by Mar Hidalgo García cooperation of a multitude of supervisory entities, financial and non-financial This paper reviews the relationship between supervisors, financial intelligence units and green transition goals and European law enforcement officials, as well as the initiatives to reduce dependence on third obliged entities themselves. (57 p.) countries for strategic raw materials. It analyses the “Action plan for critical raw materials” and raises several open debates on the subject. (ES - 17 p.) (EN - 15 p.)

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MTA KÖZGAZDASÁG- ÉS REGIONÁLIS EMPLOYMENT / SOCIAL POLICY / TUDOMÁNYI KUTATÓKÖZPONT - HEALTH AND VILÁGGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC AND REGIONAL STUDIES HAS CONSUMER AFFAIRS - INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMICS) FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN Globalization - challenges for economic PROGRESSIVE STUDIES/ BRĪVĪBAS UN policy SOLIDARITĀTES FONDS/ FRIEDRICH- EBERT-STIFTUNG/ FUNDACIÓN PABLO by Miklós Szanyi IGLESIAS/ MASARYKOVA DEMOKRATICKÁ AKADEMIE The process of globalisation has set up new technological and business conditions since Concrete action for social and affordable the 1970s and 80s. New challenges have housing in the EU emerged for economic policy. This paper analyses four major challenges and the initial by Sergio Nasarre-Aznar @SNasarreA, Milan Ftáčnik , yet still not adequate policy responses to Nuria Lambea-Llop et al. them. (52 p.) This report goes into depth about the lack of broad societal access to affordable EDUCATION / YOUTH / housing as one of the most pertinent issues CULTURE / SPORT faced by European states. It is part of a year- long exploring multilevel recommendations INSTITUTE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND and actionable points for regional, national INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS and European actions to enhance access to a decent, inclusive and sustainable place to Broken but well: healing dimensions of live. (146 p.) cultural tourism experiences by Daniela Angelina Jelinčić and Ingeborg Matečić ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚO IΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚHΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚHΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚHΣ (HELLENIC This paper is intended to add to the growing FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN body of knowledge on subjective wellbeing in POLICY) tourism and to generate this knowledge in cultural tourism. This is achieved by Protecting employment in 2021 and beyond: measuring tourists’ subjective wellbeing after what can the new SURE instrument do? visiting a museum exhibition which by Christina Kattami @CKattami represents a specifically designed, experience-based cultural tourism product. This brief analyses the rationale for, and the The study highlights the connection between integration qualities of the SURE instrument this type of cultural tourism product and (support to mitigate unemployment risks in subjective wellbeing and as such represents an emergency). By establishing the a steppingstone for further research on the importance of short-time work schemes in subject. (19 p.) protecting employment during the crucial first months of the pandemic, the brief explains the solidarity function of the SURE instrument, which ensures that all MS have the resources available to make use of similar schemes to protect jobs, workers and incomes. (13 p.)

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FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA and well-being must be at the core of APLICADA policymaking, and that the debate on levelling up the EU’s role in health policy Jubilación activa should start. (4 p.) by Sergi Jiménez-Martíni WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM This paper reviews the international regulation and several European examples The global risks report 2021 on pension compatibility and delayed pension receipt beyond the normal age. The This report analyses the risks from societal results show a higher level of compatibility fractures, manifested through persistent and related to lower pension taxation, a higher emerging risks to human health, rising level of education and better health. The unemployment, widening digital divides, report proposes the flexibilisation and youth disillusionment, and geopolitical extension of active retirement for the fragmentation. (97 p.) Spanish case. (ES - 27 p.) ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AND EUROPEAN AFFAIRS EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK

Attitudes towards LGBTIQ rights in the EU EU policy on air quality: implementation of selected EU legislation by Ross Fitzpatrick by Ekaterina Karamfilova This paper provides an overview of the existing legal frameworks at the European This European implementation assessment and international level which extend presents findings on the implementation of protections to LGBTIQ people as well as three major pieces of EU legislation on air highlighting examples of best practice and quality, namely the two ambient air quality identifying areas for improvement. (9 p.) directives and the industrial emissions directive, and makes recommendations for policy action. (200 p.) EUROPEAN TRADE UNION INSTITUTE

Betwixt and between: integrating refugees DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR into the EU labour market WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH) by Béla Galgóczi (ed.) Coase and cap-and-trade: evidence on the This publication focuses on practices in the independence property from the European labour market integration of asylum seekers carbon market and refugees in the main EU reception states in the post-2015 period. It takes a by Aleksandar Zaklan comparative approach highlighting areas of good practice across the countries while also This paper tests the independence property examining integration barriers. (263 p.) under the Coase theorem in a large multinational cap-and-trade scheme for greenhouse gas emissions, the EU EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE emissions trading system (ETS). It analyses Turning a new vision into reality: what next whether emissions of power producers for the EU’s role in health? regulated under the ETS are independent from allowance allocations, leveraging a by Simona Guagliardo @s_guagliardo change in allocation policy for a difference- in-differences strategy. (44 p.) This paper reflects on how the EU can bring added value in terms of healthcare. It argues that the EU can support MS in improving their national health systems, that people's health

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EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY new normal and enable more sustainable INSTITUTE / ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE forms of connectivity’. Against this backdrop, FOR ADVANCED STUDIES the 14th Florence Air Forum examined the contribution of European airports and the European Green Deal: what implications for wider aviation ecosystem. (18 p.) state aid in the rail sector? by Juan Montero, Matthias Finger and Teodora Serafimova BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS To support the delivery of achieving climate neutrality in Europe by 2050 in relation to Towards a European Green Deal with cities: transport, which accounts for a quarter of the the urban dimension of the EU’s EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions, the sustainable growth strategy EC has declared 2021 as the European year of rail. The brief argues a significant modal by Hannah Abdullah @hannahabdull shift will be needed from less environmentally sound modes, such as road This publication explores how the EU is and aviation, towards the greenest modes, stepping up urban governance programmes namely rail and inland waterways, without and cooperation with cities to make the most compromising the connectivity of goods and of its Green Deal and the window of persons, which is at the heart of the single opportunity for systemic change. It examines market. (20 p.) how the Green Deal will support the climate and energy transition already underway in urban areas; and how local climate action EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY can contribute to and accelerate Europe’s INSTITUTE / ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE path towards carbon-neutrality by 2050. FOR ADVANCED STUDIES (142 p.) The governance of rail freight corridors JUSTICE AND HOME AFFAIRS by Matthias Finger, Juan Montero and Teodora Serafimova ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI This paper focuses on the European Green Deal that calls for a substantial part of the Le relazioni transatlantiche al tempo del 75% of inland freight carried today by road to digitale: la questione del trasferimento di be shifted onto rail and inland waterways. A dati decade after the regulation’s entry into force, however, the results achieved in the MS by Jean-Pierre Darnis @jpdarnis remain insufficient, and the share of rail freight stagnates at around 18%. The This paper analyses the July 2020 ruling by ongoing evaluation of regulation 913/2010 is the European Court of Justice that an opportunity to move away from a single invalidated the data transfer regime between corridor towards a European RFC network the EU and the US and the reactions, as well approach. (16 p.) as the opportunity that it sparked for a new transatlantic relationship. (IT – 12 p.) EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE /ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO FOR ADVANCED STUDIES ROYAL INSTITUTE)

The role of airports in the European Green El acceso a pruebas electrónicas y el Deal cifrado, dos puntos clave de la agenda de seguridad europea by Matthias Finger, Teodora Serafimova and Juan Montero by Javier Alonso Lecuit The EC’s recent sustainable and smart mobility strategy reiterates the urgency of The EC's security agenda includes complex transitioning to zero-emission airports, initiatives relating to the detection of and whereby ‘the best practices followed by the effective access to encrypted information in most sustainable airports must become the the course of transnational criminal

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investigations. The author discusses the TRANSPORT / evolving legal framework for transnational TELECOMMUNICATIONS / access to data in the course of such investigations. (ES - 11 p.) ENERGY COLLEGE OF EUROPE ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI Guardian of the galaxy? Assessing the Europol and differentiated integration European Union’s international actorness in cyberspace by Camino Mortera-Martínez @CaminoMortera, Zoran Nechev @ZoranNechev and Ivan Damjanovski by Constant Pâris

This paper examines the conditions and This thesis aims at demystifying the consequences of differentiation in the case international actorness of the EU in of Europol. With a particular focus on the cyberspace, by assessing to what extent external dimension of differentiated does the EU possess the sufficient integration in the case of Europol, the paper capabilities to become over time a global analyses the levels of cooperation between effective cyber-power on the international Europol and third countries in relation to the stage. The study relies on a holistic and recent migration and Brexit crises. (23 p.) kinetic approach based on the evaluation of four intertwined criteria: resilience, EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE coherence, attractiveness, and responsiveness. (38 p.) EU return sponsorships: high stakes, low gains? OPEN SOCIETY FOUNDATIONS by Olivia Sundberg Diez @OliviaSundberg1 and Florian Response to European Commission Trauner @ftrauner consultation on the white paper on artificial intelligence The concept of ‘return sponsorships’ would be one of the most controversial proposals of by Pamela Valenti and Guillermo Beltrà @gbeltra the new pact on migration and asylum. The text discusses the background to this idea In June 2020, the Open Society European and its possible implementation on the Policy Institute submitted its response to the grounds that, for the proposal to succeed, public consultation launched by the EC on its negotiators must avoid unrealistic white paper on "artificial intelligence – a expectations, prioritise the support provided European approach to excellence and trust". by the solidarity mechanism to the EU’s The response calls on the EC to prioritise a border states and prevent human rights. model of artificial intelligence (AI) (24 p.) governance that safeguards human rights and counters all forms of discrimination. INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR (13 p.) MIGRATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT EGMONT - ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR ICMPD migration outlook 2021. Seven INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS things to look out for in 2021: origins, key events and priorities for Europe Renewable energy communities in the European energy policy: an evidence of This migration outlook presents a brief clean energy for all Europeans, not by all analysis of migration and policy trends and provides an outlook on developments and by Loïc Cobut @lcobut events to watch out for in 2021. (20 p.) In 2016, the EC recognized the role of renewable energy communities (RECs) in the clean energy package. This paper presents RECs and the concepts of polycentric climate governance and citizen

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empowerment and combines them to EU INTEGRATION AND DIFFERENTIATION analyse the evolution of the renewable FOR EFFECTIVENESS AND energy governance of the EU. It also ACCOUNTABILITY provides recommendations for a future revision of the renewable energy policy as Differentiated integration in the energy well as for the coming transposition of the sector and its contribution to the European measures that were delivered by the clean goals of affordability, security of supply and energy package. (32 p.) sustainability

by Luca Franza @Lufranza, Héctor Sánchez Margalef EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE / @sanchezmargalef and Margherita Bianchi ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE FOR @marghebianchi ADVANCED STUDIES This brief studies the role of differentiated Upgrading guarantees of origin to promote integration in the field of energy – where an the achievement of the EU renewable EU-level compromise is not always energy target at least cost reachable due to strong heterogeneity among MS. (21 p.) by Alberto Pototschnig and Ilaria Conti @Ilaria_C80

This report explores alternative mechanisms E3G that could further catalyse progress towards the renewable penetration target, while Resetting relationships: the case for a new maximising an efficient selection of energy EU diplomatic strategy on fossil fuel vectors leading to that purpose. (24 p.) producers

by Jonathan Gaventa @jonathangaventa ECOLOGIC INSTITUTE: SCIENCE AND POLICY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD This paper outlines the case for a new European diplomatic strategy on fossil fuel Options for multilateral initiatives to close producers, the changing nature of Europe’s the global 2030 climate ambition and action geopolitical interests regarding producer gap - Policy field energy transition countries and the core components of what a new diplomatic strategy should include. by Benjamin Görlach @BenjaminGorlach and Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter (14 p.)

This paper discusses options how the INSTITUT DU DÉVELOPPEMENT DURABLE transition of the energy sector – from fossil to ET DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES renewable fuels – can be enhanced through (IDDRI) multilateral cooperation. It provides an overview of the most relevant international Neutralité carbone en Europe : défis futurs initiatives that work on issues related to pour les infrastructures de gaz energy transition, particularly on promoting energy efficiency, the uptake of renewable by Ines Bouacida @BouacidaInes and Nicolas energies, access to energy or the phase-out Berghmans @n_berghmans of fossil fuels. (40 p.) This study identifies the main challenges linked to the impacts of the objective of carbon neutrality on the gas system. It examines how the role of gas is presented in existing deep decarbonisation scenarios, and then identifies the potential consequences for the gas network. It focuses on the cases of France and Germany. (FR - 29 p.)

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challenges and objectives for the Union in security and defence will be better defined. In this context, this paper compares the advantages and disadvantages of introducing qualified majority in the areas of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). (8 p.)

EUROPEAN UNION INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES (EUISS)

SECTION 3 - FOREIGN What if ... not? The cost of inaction

AFFAIRS by Florence Gaub @FlorenceGaub (ed.)

FOREIGN AND SECURITY The 12 scenarios presented in this POLICY / DEFENCE publication draw attention to the cost of inaction in a variety of areas, ranging from FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH Russia to Africa, from cyberspace to EBERT FOUNDATION) / SWEDISH environmental matters. They highlight the INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY (geo)political, economic and strategic STUDIES / CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN implications of not taking action at a critical POLICY STUDIES juncture. They apply the precautionary principle to foreign and security policy, From self-doubt to self-assurance: the whereby calculating the different European External Action Service as the consequences of action and inaction in the indispensable support for a geopolitical EU future would help policymakers take crucial decisions ahead of time. (72 p.) by Christophe Hillion and Steven Blockmans @StevenBlockmans ЦЕНТЪР ЗА ИЗСЛЕДВАНЕ НА This study reappraises the EEAS’ actual and ДЕМОКРАЦИЯТА (CENTER FOR THE potential mission in the coming years, STUDY OF DEMOCRACY) considering the dynamic ecosystem within which it functions. Distilling key lessons from The Chinese economic footprint in Central the first decade of the Service’s operation, and Eastern Europe: impact on energy the report sets out 30 recommendations to transition and climate address identified shortcomings. It aims to by Martin Vladimirov and Christophe Rolland assist the EEAS’ purpose of forging a distinctly European brand of diplomacy, by The brief makes a comprehensive overview upgrading its operation to allow it more of the different patterns of Chinese economic flexibility to think, propose and act, more influence. It measures the main indicators for agility to factor in a rapidly changing the Chinese economic footprint in 12 CEE international landscape, and more countries. The brief zooms in on the impact determination to play a leading role. (40 p.) of Chinese investments on the overall quality of climate policies as well as provides EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK targeted policy measures on countering the malign aspects of the Chinese economic Qualified majority voting in foreign and presence. (14 p.) security policy: pros and cons by Tania Lațici @TaniaLatici

From 2020 until 2022, the EU is undertaking a strategic reflection process taking the form of a Strategic Compass, whereby the threats,

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ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI

Unlocking European defence: in search of NATO’s role in nuclear non-proliferation the long overdue paradigm shift and arms control: a (critical) history by Arnout Molenaar by Leopoldo Nuti

This paper studies the EU’s range of new EU This report looks at the interaction between security and defence initiatives stating that the Atlantic Alliance and the main arms- they can only deliver on their potential if MS control negotiations of the nuclear age. The shift the paradigm towards truly thinking, first part is dedicated to the role the Alliance acting and working together as Europeans, played in the arms-control and non- based on a strategic consensus regarding proliferation process that shaped the global the future of European defence in the nuclear order during the Cold War. The changing global context. The new Strategic second part discusses the Alliance’s Compass, to be adopted by the Council in adaptation to the post-Cold War period. early 2022, provides a framework to develop (41 p.) such a shared vision. (26 p.) INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE INTERNATIONAL

European strategic autonomy and third Strategic risk reduction between nuclear- countries: the defence industrial dimension weapons possessors by Marcin Terlikowski @MTerlikowski by Corentin Brustlein @CorentinBr

The EU’s quest to develop strategic This report defines strategic risk reduction as autonomy has become a source of tension the set of unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral both in transatlantic relations and within measures aimed at lowering the likelihood of Europe itself. The EU aims to foster nuclear weapons use through improved cooperation between its MS on developing communication, predictability, and restraint, new defence technologies and thereby limit and underlines the need to adopt a strategic dependencies on imported weapons approach to nuclear risk reduction. (60 p.) systems, which are seen as hampering the EU’s freedom to use military force in INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS scenarios of choice. (12 p.) INTERNATIONALES

INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS Cyberarmes - la lutte informatique offensive ESTRATÉGICOS dans la manœuvre future

El Tratado new START: contener al elefante by Jean-Baptiste Florant negro. The new Start Treaty: containing the black Due to the increasing digitisation of societies elephant and armed forces, offensive IT warfare offers unprecedented action capabilities at the by José Ignacio Castro Torres strategic level and on the battlefield. However, its implementation is based on a In a context of uncertainty about the future of complex civil-military architecture requiring a international arms control and non- high degree of coordination between all proliferation agreements, the author parties. Tomorrow's manoeuvre will have to analyses the history and content of the main take into account the effects of cyber agreements reached, their impact and the weapons, while integrating their technical future of the negotiations on this issue. (ES - and operational specificities in order to take 19 p.) (EN - 18 p.) full advantage of them on the battlefield. (FR - 52 p.)

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POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW WILFRIED MARTENS CENTRE FOR MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH EUROPEAN STUDIES INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) Europe and Biden: towards a new Greening the Three Seas Initiative with transatlantic pact? the US by Jolyon Howorth by Zuzanna Nowak This report argues that the US and the EU The Three Seas Initiative is a regional both have a strong interest in forging a new, political cooperation format of 12 EU MS more balanced partnership, one that reflects located between the Baltic, Black, and the evolving reality of their distinct roles in an Adriatic seas that pledge to work together to emerging multipolar world. (24 p.) improve connectivity in three key domains of infrastructure: energy, transport, and digital. LSE IDEAS According to the paper, these countries can become valuable partners in the US-backed Protect, constrain, contest: approaches for global coalition promoting the reduction of coordinated transatlantic economic and harmful greenhouse gas emissions. (6 p.) technological competition with China

by Peter Watkins, François Chimits, Ashley Lenihan et al. EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS The Biden Presidency offers opportunities for a renewed effort at formulating a The crisis of American power: how coordinated allied approach to technological Europeans see Biden's America and economic competition with China. This by Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard report provides a guiding framework for transatlantic coordination, and offers insights On the basis of pan-European survey of into key elements of future cooperation. more than 15,000 people in 11 countries, the (34 p.) brief analyses Europeans’ attitudes towards the US, which recently have undergone a CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY massive change. The findings show there is STUDIES widespread optimism among Europeans after the 2020 US election that the Extraterritorial sanctions with a Chinese transatlantic partnership has a future; and trademark: European responses to long- that Europeans are sceptical about arm legal tactics America’s efforts to regain its influence and contain the rise of China. (27 p.) by Steven Blockmans @StevenBlockmans

China has recently updated its laws on the EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN (security) screening of foreign investment, RELATIONS promulgated a new export controls law, Artificial divide: how Europe and America drawn up an ‘unreliable entity’ list, and could clash over AI adopted an EU-style statute blocking the extraterritorial jurisdiction of US law. Beijing by Ulrike Esther Franke wages legal warfare (‘lawfare’) against Hong Kong, in the South China Sea, along the Belt The paper examines the reasons European and Road, and in cyberspace. This paper states may want to work with the US on AI. It asks how the EU might prepare to be better also identifies the points of disagreement protected against such lawfare. (20 p.) that may stop the allies from fully fleshing out transatlantic AI cooperation. It shows that, while both sides are interested in collaboration, their rationales differ, and argues that transatlantic cooperation in the area of military AI could be a good first step. (16 p.)

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COLLEGE OF EUROPE DEVELOPMENT

American LNG and the EU-Russia EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT relationship: the end of Moscow’s energy POLICY MANAGEMENT (ECDPM) weapon? A sustainable development approach to by Stefano Cabras return and reintegration: dilemmas, choices and possibilities This paper examines to what extent the shale revolution in the US and the new US position by Anna Knoll @anna_katharinak, Pauline Veron in the global energy market has impacted the @PaulineVeron1 and Niklas Mayer EU’s gas market and energy relationship with Russia. The study finds that US liquefied This paper explores the role of development natural gas (LNG) coming to the market as of cooperation in reintegration support, in the 2019 has generated an oversupply and context of sustainable development and aid strengthened the position of EU buyers vis- effectiveness. (50 p.) à-vis the Russian Gazprom. (39 p.) TRADE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE Conflicts to watch in 2021: preventive WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA priorities survey results INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL by Paul B. Stares (ed.) @PaulBStares ECONOMIC STUDIES)

In CFR’s annual preventive priorities survey, Wanted! Free trade agreements in the US foreign policy experts assess the service of environmental and climate likelihood and impact of thirty potential protection conflicts that could emerge or escalate in the by Julia Grübler @JuliaGruebler, Roman Stöllinger and coming year. They rank the conflicts based Gabriele Tondl on their likelihood of occurring or escalating and their potential impact on US national This study provides an overview of the interests. (12 p.) development of sustainability chapters in FTAs and discusses their potential and BUSSOLA INSTITUTE limitations. It highlights particular industry- specific environmental issues related to EU An agenda for Europe-Gulf defence trade, especially with developing countries, cooperation and presents complementary policy options. (96 p.) by Jean-Loup Samaan

This paper discusses the current state of ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Europe-Gulf defence cooperation, how to INSTITUTE improve the European contribution to Gulf military training programmes and the EU-US trade structure and risks potential for European-Gulf industrial by Luke Dalya and Martina Lawless cooperation in the context of the growth of local defence industries. It explores the ways This paper maps out the trade relationship in in which this defence cooperation could goods between the two largest trading blocs move to a new level by establishing a in the global economy – the EU and US. The multilateral strategic dialogue on issues such authors use detailed product category as maritime security, stability in the Sahel, information to provide an indepth description and security assistance to Lebanon and Iraq. of current trade flows between the two (24 p.) markets, with a particular focus on how Irish- US trade patterns compare to those of the EU overall. (46 p.)

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EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY AFRICA INSTITUTE / ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP

Plurilateral cooperation as an alternative to How to spend it: new EU funding for African trade agreements: innovating one domain peace and security at a time Nouveaux modes de financement de l’UE en faveur de la paix et de la sécurité africaines by Bernard Hoekman and Charles Sabel New financial structures will soon allow the This paper argues that the ‘joint statement EU to fund African military operations – initiatives’ should seek to establish open including the supply of lethal weaponry – plurilateral agreements even in instances directly, instead of through the African Union where the outcome can be incorporated into (AU). To avoid aggravating conflicts, the brief existing schedules of commitments of suggests Brussels should undertake robust participating WTO members. (28 p.) risk assessments, constantly monitor its assistance, insist that recipient countries EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY subordinate military efforts to political INSTITUTE / ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE strategies and preserve AU oversight. (EN - FOR ADVANCED STUDIES 33 p. / FR - 35 p.)

Description of version 2 of the panel dataset on non-trade policy outcome indicators STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE (NTPOID_v2) RESEARCH INSTITUTE by Miriam Manchin Conflict mediation and peacebuilding in the Sahel: the role of Maghreb countries in an This dataset covers an extensive range of African framework non-trade policy outcomes which can be found in trade agreements. The variables by Virginie Baudais @VirginieBaudais, Amal Bourhrous measuring these various non-trade @ABourhrous and Dylan O’Driscoll @odriscoll_dylan outcomes are grouped along four main categories: economics and social rights; Conflict dynamics in the Sahel are complex. political and civil rights; environmental The region faces a multidimensional crisis issues; and security issues. (194 p.) that includes the proliferation of terrorist groups, criminal networks, environmental pressures, state weaknesses and severe EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR governance problems. This paper offers an INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY assessment of the situation in the Sahel in the context of relations with neighbouring Global trade today is global value chains Maghreb countries. (48 p.) by David Henig @DavidHenigUK ASIA-OCEANIA In the last 25 years global value chains have come to dominate global trade in a way INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS surprisingly little discussed or understood. INTERNATIONALES The paper indicates that to meet the policy challenges of today and the future, there is “New southern policy” Korea’s newfound a need to understand the key characteristics ambition in search of strategic autonomy of this new global trade and how it came about. (4 p.) by Wongi Choe This paper argues that the new southern policy (NSP), as Seoul’s new regional strategy to diversify its economic and diplomatic alignments in search of greater strategic autonomy, has been well received by Southeast Asia and India, and quite

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SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS successful in producing substantial BROOKINGS INSTITUTION deliverables over the last three years. However, Seoul’s desire to pursue its Economic diversification in the Gulf: time to middle-power ambition has been limited by redouble efforts external geopolitical constraints as well as by Nader Kabbani and Nejla Ben Mimoune internal limitations inherent in the design of the NSP itself. (24 p.) The issue of economic diversification has gained a renewed sense of urgency in Gulf EASTERN PARTNERSHIP Arab countries. A global economic slowdown induced by the coronavirus pandemic CLINGENDAEL - NETHERLANDS pushed Brent crude prices down. This brief INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL outlines the difficulties and offers RELATIONS recommendations of reforms needed to be in place for Gulf countries rich with oil. (20 p.) The Eastern Partnership: three dilemmas in a time of troubles ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI by Bob Deen, Wouter Zweers @Wouter_Zweers and Iris van Loon Countering zero-sum relations in the Middle East: insights from the expert survey The report assesses the following three policy dilemmas that need to be considered by Flavia Fusco @ff_flaviafusco in order to make the Eastern Partnership This paper analyses the results of a one-year more effective: the EU needs to reconcile its research and outreach project entitled geopolitical interests with its normative “Fostering a new security architecture in the aspirations; the added value of the Middle East”. Also an expert survey targeting Partnership multilateral track should be European, US, Russian, Middle Eastern and deliberated with consideration of the Chinese experts and practitioners was differentiation in bilateral relations with conducted on key themes associated with partner countries; and the EU will need to the research project and the search for new, consider how to deal with protracted inclusive mechanisms for dialogue and de- conflicts, hybrid threats, and other security escalation in the Middle East. (42 p.) challenges in the Partnership's region. (42 p.) FUNDACIÓN ALTERNATIVAS

MIDDLE EAST / NORTH AFRICA Las brechas que desestabilizan la Vecindad (MENA) Sur: de la "Primavera Árabe' a la era Covid- 19 BRUEGEL by Ricard González Samaranch @RicardGonz Economic crisis in the Middle East and North Africa This study identifies the main factors behind the 'Arab Spring' such as rupture of the tacit by Marek Dabrowski and Marta Domínguez-Jiménez social contract in place since independence, @MartaDomnguezJ1 corruption and inequalities, lack of freedoms and identity polarisation around the role of In the 2010s, the economic outlook of the Islam in public life. It argues that in a situation countries in the MENA region deteriorated. of multiple crises, these factors continue to Covid-19 has compounded the problems. mark the region's political life and difficult the The brief analyses the factors behind this system of governance. (ES - 29 p.) deterioration of economic performance and the main socio-economic policy challenges faced by the region. (24 p.)

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EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN GROUP OF LEGAL AND POLITICAL RELATIONS STUDIES

Spoiler alert: how Europe can save Electoral reform in Kosovo: a comparative diplomacy in Libya study by Tarek Megerisi @Tmegrisi by Barbara Matias

The paper looks into the current UN-led This report explores all topics in the context diplomatic process in Libya indicating its of the need for an electoral reform in Kosovo, shortcomings as well as underlining its as demanded by civil society at large and geopolitical importance. It includes called by for the EU. It finds that the Kosovar recommendations for the EU actors which democratic institutions need some technical should work together to protect the peace refurbishment and the legal framework some process from foreign "spoilers", such as amendments to enhance the country’s Turkey, Egypt, Russia and the UAE. democracy and combat regular Europeans should also strengthen Libya’s undemocratic practices left unsanctioned. governance and accountability mechanisms, (19 p.) which are needed to ensure a new government can successfully hold elections CHINA in December 2021. (19 p.) SVENSKA INSTITUTET FÖR WESTERN BALKANS EUROPAPOLITISKA STUDIER (SWEDISH INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP STUDIES)

Relaunching the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue Bör EU föra en tuffare handelspolitik mot Kina? Thirteen years after Kosovo broke away from Serbia, the two countries remain mired in by Harry Flam mutual non-recognition, with deleterious The author describes China's industrial effects on both. According to this report, the policy and how it affects the EU, including parties need to move past technicalities to positive effects. He also describes the EU's tackle the main issues at stake: Pristina’s new instruments in this area. (SV - 9 p.) independence and Belgrade’s influence over Kosovo’s Serbian minority. (36 p.) INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES GROUP FOR LEGAL AND POLITICAL STUDIES China’s ambitions in space - the sky’s the limit Enhancing Kosovo’s European integration process: an institutional approach by Marc Julienne @MarcJulienne by Alejandro Esteso Perez @aestesop China is a complete space power with autonomous access to outer space and to Drawing from a close examination of deep-space exploration. Under President Xi Kosovo's defunct Ministry of European Jinping, outer space is fully integrated in the Integration, this analysis provides a “China dream of the great rejuvenation of the comprehensive account on the perks and Chinese nation”, although it still lags behind weaknesses of Kosovo’s new European in terms of technology and means. The integration machinery. (21 p.) international space treaty needs to be updated, because political conflicts on Earth concerning the outer space domain are likely to intensify in the coming years. (44 p.)

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INSTITUT MONTAIGNE DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN The weak links in China's drive for COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS) semiconductors Russia’s strategic interests and actions in by Mathieu Duchâtel @mtdtl the Baltic region

This paper analyses the semiconductor by Heinrich Brauß and András Rácz value chain to highlight the balance between interdependence and chokepoints; it This report deals with Russia’s geopolitical describes the state of the Chinese objectives, policy and strategy, and their semiconductor industry, from equipment to effects across the wider Baltic region. It sums IC design and manufacturing; and reviews up NATO’s response to this evolving China’s current industrial policies to strategic challenge, including the potential overcome its weaknesses and military threat posed by Russia. (30 p.) vulnerabilities. (37 p.) UNITED KINGDOM / BREXIT RUSSIA CHATHAM HOUSE - THE ROYAL INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS INTERNATIONALES Global Britain, global broker: a blueprint for Russia's space policy: the path of decline? the UK’s future international role by Florian Vidal @DrFlorocene by Robin Niblett @RobinNiblett

Russia is engaged in a race against time to The author sets out a proposed blueprint for preserve one of its major industrial assets. Britain’s future foreign policy. He argues that The competition for space now includes the country has the chance to remain several dimensions. The reorganization of internationally influential if it serves as the the sector aims to rationalize its programs broker of solutions to global challenges. The according to budget constraints as well as paper lays out six international goals for the socio-economic, technological and UK: protecting liberal democracy; promoting infrastructural realities. In a highly international peace and security; tackling competitive international environment, the climate change; enabling greater global attempt to upgrade this sector challenges health resilience; championing global tax Russia’s credibility with its partners. (44 p.) transparency and equitable economic growth; and defending cyberspace. (72 p.) DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN UNITED STATES OF AMERICA COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS) INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS Russian foreign policy in 2020: INTERNATIONALES strengthening multi-vectorialism United States climate politics under Biden: by András Rácz (ed.) is the clean energy revolution under way?

This report assesses Russia’s relations with by Arnault Barichella the EU, China, and the US. While Russian relations with the West are unlikely to For the first time in US history, climate improve in 2021 – especially ahead of this change became a dominant issue in a fall’s Duma election – there is still a chance Presidential election, forcing Joe Biden to for limited engagement on issues of mutual backtrack on his initially moderate proposals interest. (32 p.) and set out a much more ambitious plan known as the “clean energy revolution”. This paper examines to what extent Democrats

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SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS will be able to deliver on campaign promises. CATO INSTITUTE (6 p.) Circumventing section 230: product liability lawsuits threaten Internet speech FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN by Will Duffield La transition Biden Social media platforms are easily accessible by Simon Serfaty digital tools that help users communicate with one another. While their creators may exercise The author focuses on Biden's agenda and some control over their uses, control is costly, argues that a well-disposed EU-conscious and the responsibility for specific platform uses President shares Europe's preference for ultimately rests with individual users. This report non military instruments of power, as well as analyses the understanding of the US law an inclusive take on world order and its section 230 of the communications act of 1934. global agenda. (FR - 6 p.) (20 p.)

INSTITUT PRO EVROPSKOU POLITIKU EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY)

Implications of the 2020 US presidential election on the EU and Czech climate policy by Aneta Navrátilová

The author argues that with the new US administration, many reckon that things are going to change fundamentally on the domestic US level as well on the international playing field. On the whole, it is expected that Biden will bring more stability into international relations as the US president since he plans to leave the unilateralist approach of his predecessor and re-join many of the global alliances. (7 p.)

INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES

Les républicains et la politique étrangère américaine après Trump - entre néo- isolationnisme et rivalité avec la Chine by Soufian Alsabbagh @4lsabbagh_S

This paper asks how the US can resist or even fight their new systemic adversary (China) if they must also refrain from engaging in world affairs. If the Biden administration continues to oppose Beijing, Republicans could grasp this opportunity to evade Trumpism and polarization, and reconcile with Democrats to better serve the country, as they did during the Cold War with the Soviet Union. (FR - 30 p.)

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GERMANY

INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY)

Deutsche Arbeitsplätze und Brexit: Die Bedeutung des Exports nach Großbritannien für die Beschäftigung in den deutschen Bundesländern

by Klaus Schrader and Levke Jessen-Thiesen SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER @LevkeJessen STATES This analysis suggests that the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement is in the BULGARIA interest of all German states. The export- oriented German economy, which will have EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY to recover from pandemic in the next few INSTITUTE / ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE years, will not be burdened with additional FOR ADVANCED STUDIES costs from a dismantling of the European division of labour thanks to the agreement. EU law and the mutual recognition of (DE - 20 p.) parenthood between member states: the case of V.M.A. v Stolichna Obsthina INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS by David A.J.G. de Groot INTERNATIONALES

This report examines the issues related to Les Verts allemands, un nouveau parti de EU law and the mutual recognition of rassemblement ? parenthood between MS. It specifically by Annette Lensing assesses the case C-490/20 V.M.A. v. Stolichna Obsthina, Rayon Pancharevo In a political landscape marked by the (Sofia municipality, Pancharevo district), erosion of the social base of the large concerning the recognition of a birth traditional parties and the greater volatility of certificate mentioning two women as parents the electorate, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen has in order to get proof of nationality. (25 p.) set its sights on the Federal Chancellery. Currently credited with 20% in the polls, it DENMARK wishes to embodying a new realism conceived as an alternative to the "popular" DANSK INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONALE parties. This note sheds light on the main STUIER (DANISH INSTITUTE FOR transformations of the former protest party INTERNATIONAL STUDIES) and questions the impact of its governmental ambition on the basis, the programme and Scoping study for an evaluation of the the political strategy. (FR - 28 p.) peace and stabilisation fund: how to strengthen Danish stabilisation engagements by Jessica Larsen and Katja Lindskov Jacobsen

Since 2010, Denmark has used the peace and stabilisation fund as an instrument through which to address diverse challenges in some of the world’s hotspots, such as Iraq, Syria and the Sahel. The authors examine possible paths through which to improve the fund ten years into its existence. (38 p.)

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SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES

GREECE FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE / ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE El necesario enfoque actuarial de los FOR ADVANCED STUDIES sistemas de pensiones: la relevancia de la esperanza de vida, también en España The politics of differentiated integration: what do governments want? Country report by Mercedes Ayuso and Jorge Bravo - Greece Life expectancy is probably the most relevant by Natalia Tellidou biometric measure in the field of pensions. The author studies the Spanish scenario, Two main questions regarding differentiated arguing that it is necessary to incorporate life integration (DI) in Greece are the focus of the expectancy into the design of public report, how salient was DI for Greek pensions in order to guarantee their governments and what positions Greek sustainability, sufficiency and equity. (ES - governments have on DI. (36 p.) 30 p.)

SPAIN FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE) Trece cuestiones sobre regulación en telecomunicaciones ¿Quiénes son los socios de España en el by Diego Rodríguez Rodríguez sistema multilateral de desarrollo? by Iliana Olivié @iolivie, Emma Carrasco and María This paper reviews relevant aspects of Moreno telecommunications regulation in Spain and its challenges. It explores the current Spain participates in different multilateral or regulatory discussion such as the supra-national development spaces along challenges of spectrum auctions, especially with a small group of EU donors with whom with 5G, network neutrality, universal service it shares a relatively common vision of the and its relationship with the audiovisual multilateral system. According to the authors, sector regulation and competition policy. these could be Spain's main allies in its (ES - 52 p.) strategy to strengthen the multilateral development system in the post-Covid-19 phase. (ES - 11 p.) FRANCE INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO INTERNATIONALES ROYAL INSTITUTE) Réparer 2020 ou préparer 2030 ? Siete tendencias climáticas y energéticas a L'entraînement des forces françaises à l'ère seguir en 2021 du combat multi-domaines by Lara Lázaro @lazarotouza and Gonzalo Escribano by Morgan Paglia @Morgan_Paglia @g_escribano With a view to an ever more demanding Seven energy and climate trends to follow in military engagement, the improvement of 2021 are outlined regarding their policy, digital technologies and new battlefield sector, region and country: impact of the information capabilities make it possible to pandemic on energy and climate; leverage of simulate complex exercise scenarios science and international climate action; involving high-intensity operations at a lower major emitters' challenges; deployment of cost. Only in situ training, however, makes it the Spanish climate action; oil market possible to model all the conditions of recovery; changes in natural gas markets; engagement. To prepare forces for present and acceleration of the energy transition. (ES challenges while anticipating future conflicts - 15 p.) and multi-domain operations, alternative

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SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES methods to the physical segment must be LATVIA given their rightful place. (FR - 56 p.) LATVIJAS ĀRPOLITIKAS INSTITŪTS FONDATION POUR L'INNOVATION (LATVIAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL POLITIQUE - FONDAPOL AFFAIRS)

Souveraineté économique : entre ambitions Latvian foreign and security policy: et réalités yearbook 2021 by Emmanuel Combe @emmanuelcombe et Sarah by Andris Spruds @AndrisSpruds and Sintija Broka Guillou @Sarah_Guillou @SintijaBroka (eds.) The Latvian foreign and security policy The Covid-19 pandemic has led to a return yearbook 2021 aims to examine and to the forefront of the question of economic evaluate various spheres of Latvia’s foreign sovereignty, particularly in France. The issue and security policy. It looks at what has been is to know what content to give this notion. In achieved in 2020 and draws up development a maximalist sense, economic sovereignty scenarios for 2021, informing the public and would lead to advocating a return to a certain offering recommendations to Latvian degree of autarky: in order not to depend on policymakers. (247 p.) anyone, a country would have to somehow put itself "out of the world". The authors show LITHUANIA that such a policy leads to an impasse and is even almost impossible. (FR - 92 p.) EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE / ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE FONDATION POUR L'INNOVATION FOR ADVANCED STUDIES POLITIQUE - FONDAPOL The politics of differentiated integration: Relocaliser en décarbonant grâce à what do governments want? Country report l’énergie nucléaire – Lithuania by Inga Vinogradnaitė and Ramūnas Vilpišauskas by Valérie Faudon @ValerieFaudon

This study looks at the advantages of nuclear The report discusses the attitude of the facilities and the French nuclear industry as Lithuanian policy-makers (parliament, a whole for relocation and, beyond that, president, government) towards reindustrialisation policies. In particular, it differentiated integration during the period shows that nuclear power is a sovereign tool from Lithuania’s accession into the EU in in France that makes it possible to withstand 2004 till 2020. (40 p.) energy shocks, rendering the country more cost-competitive and more attractive HUNGARY internationally. (FR - 64 p.) EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE / ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE ITALY FOR ADVANCED STUDIES

LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL The politics of differentiated integration: ECONOMY what do governments want? Country report – Hungary Il piano italiano di ripresa e resilienza: Come utilizzare una straordinaria opportunità by Anna Kyriazi by Marcello Messori This paper evaluates the salience of differentiated integration (DI) and the This brief highlights the five elements of the positions of successive Hungarian Italian recovery and resilience plan that are governments since the country’s EU essential to ensure its efficiency and accession. It finds that DI has a low-salience effectiveness. (IT – 9 p.) and tends to come up in relation to specific events or policy debates. (38 p.)

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MISCELLANEOUS

MISCELLANEOUS

BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

Cities in global governance: from multilateralism to multistakeholderism? by Agustí Fernández de Losada @AgustiFdeLosada and Marta Galceran-Vercher @martagalceran (eds.)

This publication discusses the opportunities and constraints affecting cities’ political agency within the contemporary global order. It addresses the tensions and complementarity between two strategies for bringing urban concerns and interests to the global stage: reforming the current multilateral system and “multistakeholderism” as an alternative. (98 p.)

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