Analyzing the European Think Tank Landscape Europe Summit Team

Europe's Future on the World Stage: Analyzing The European Think Tank Landscape

Europe Summit Team Final Report Summer 2020

Natasha Porter, Project Lead Juan Cardenas Caroline Condon Pedro Giestas Bruce Hecht Isabella Rocco Layal Salaymeh Allegra Solari Annarosa Zampaglione

Table of Contents

Introduction 1 Literature Review 3 Data Collection and Analysis 12 Potential Themes for the 2021 European Think Tank Summit 21 European Think Tank Summit 2021: Planning and Logistics 27 Conclusion: Questions for future research 29

Introduction

According to the 2019 Global Go To Think Tank Index, there are 8,248 think tanks worldwide, with 2,219 of those think tanks located in Europe.1 Europe has the highest number of think tanks out of any continent, followed by North America with 2,058 think tanks with the majority of North American think tanks based in the United States. Within Europe, the United

Kingdom, Germany, Russia, and France all have more than 200 registered think tanks in their respective countries. The number of think tanks in Europe varies within the region with 1,523 think tanks in Western European countries and 696 located in Central and Eastern European countries.

The Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program (TTCSP) has continuously focused on collecting data and conducting research on think tanks and the role that they play in the policymaking process.2 This work includes planning and hosting international summits, and TTCSP has hosted six European Think Tank Summits between 2013 and 2019.

The objective of this report is to analyze the key issues facing Europe as a region and

European think tanks in 2020 to produce research that will support the planning and agenda setting of the 2021 European Think Tank Summit. We aim to answer the following question: What are the unique policy, strategic and operational challenges facing European think tanks in 2020? We will answer this research question by identifying key issues in Europe from previous European

Think Tank Summits and relevant literature, utilizing the data collected on European think tanks in 2020 to identify trends in the region, synthesizing the literature review and data analysis to suggest potential summit themes based on our research, and conclude with recommendations for future research. This research is relevant to TTCSP and all parties interested in the future of

1 McGann, James G., "2019 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report" (2020). TTCSP Global Go To Think Tank Index Reports. 17. https://repository.upenn.edu/think_tanks/17 2 Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program. 2020. History And Mission — Think Tanks And Civil Societies Program. [online] Available at: [Accessed 19 July 2020].

European think tanks because the challenges facing think tanks in the region have shifted due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and identifying these specific challenges before the upcoming

2021 European Think Tank Summit is essential in creating a relevant agenda for the summit.

This report will begin with a literature review that details previously identified challenges facing European think tanks from both summits and research produced by European think tanks.

Then, there will be a presentation and analysis of the data TTCSP collected on European think tanks during the summer of 2020. Next, the report will continue with suggestions for potential summit themes for the 2021 European Think Tank Summit that would effectively address the issues raised in the literature review and the data analysis. The report will end with the logistical and planning elements that the TTCSP Europe Summit Team undertook during the summer of

2020 to assist in planning the summit. Finally, we will conclude with our key findings and suggestions for future research.

Literature Review

In order to answer our question, we reflected on the key policy issues raised in previous

European Think Tank Summits. This was to assess the ongoing conversations that were happening between think tanks before the COVID-19 outbreak to better understand how these issues may have shifted due to the outbreak. We identified several key policy areas that were recurring in previous summits - The rise of populism, climate change, the impact of Brexit, Europe’s relationship with China, and Artificial Intelligence. This literature review will detail the previous discussions of these key policy issues and will frame the analysis and conclusions made later in the report.

The rise of populism in Europe

In recent years, European summits have raised populism as a challenge to think tanks. In order to understand why think tanks have taken interest in the rise of populism in Europe, a literature review of the topic is necessary. In the first chapter of his book The Rise of Populism in

Western Europe, Lochoki highlights the reason for populism’s success; “the electoral fortunes of populist radical right parties primarily depend on how moderate parties frame issues of national identity—embodied by immigration and EU topics.”3 In this way, Lochoki argues that the failure of established parties to successfully handle social issues allows populists to gain support through criticism enhanced by social media.

With this being said, as the success of populism depends on the decline of moderate parties, the movement is also relatively unstable. In an opinion piece published by Geopolitical

Intelligence Services, the author argues that Europe has in some ways populism has already peaked in Europe; “The British Parliament’s apparent success in blocking a no-deal Brexit on October 31

[2019] as well as setbacks for sovereigntist parties elsewhere in Europe have prompted some observers to claim that “populism” in Europe has passed its peak.”4 In this way, the rise of populism as an issue in Europe should also be considered as one that arises in waves rather than a steady incline.

The 2018 European Think Tank Summit Report notes how think tanks must “provide valid, fact-based policy advice while simultaneously struggling to battle the slow degradation of their

3 Lochoki, Timo. ‘How the Failed Political Messaging of Moderate Political Actors Strengthens Populist Radical Right Parties in The Rise of Populism’ in Western Europe; A Media Analysis on Failed Political Messaging. Springer. 2018 4 Leigh, Michael. ‘Opinion: Brexit and ‘peak populism’ in Europe’ Geopolitical Intelligence Services. 20 September 2019.

reputations due to public disillusion in expertise.”5 Although a challenging task, the report stresses the importance of think tanks in countering the fiery movement as nations once considered allies to Europe, such as the US, have begun making self-interested and hypernationalist moves. Think tanks must thus address the problem “head-on” and clarify what makes populism attractive to so many people.6

More specifically, because populism has brought about a new disdain for expertise and well-informed research, think tanks must work to dispel their ‘ivory tower’ reputation which makes them seem “out of touch with the concerns and issues plaguing citizens at microlevels.”7

To do so is to recognize that think tanks often approach complicated problems with complicated solutions, but that amid the success of rash and irrational decision making of populists, they must refrain from dismissing such policy as “a fool’s errand.”8 Instead, think tanks should not only denounce populist, but understand their appeal and concerns so that they are able to attract the same mass support for populists but in a well-informed and deliberate way.

To analyze why exactly populists do so well, the report suggests think tanks expand their collection of big data and use technology to understand how populist leaders maintain their support base despite their outlandish public behavior9. In learning from their past mistakes in that polls were inaccurate predictors, think tanks should analyze big data from social media to track patterns that better reflect reality.

5 Konrad-Adenauer-Stifting e.V and McKinsey Global Institute. “2018 Europe Think Tank Summit Report: Closing the Gap between Knowledge, Policy and Good Governance in the Digital Age” 2018. 6 Konrad-Adenauer-Stifting e.V and McKinsey Global Institute. “2018 Europe Think Tank Summit Report: Closing the Gap between Knowledge, Policy and Good Governance in the Digital Age” 2018. 7 Ibid. 8 Ibid. 9 Konrad-Adenauer-Stifting e.V and McKinsey Global Institute. “2018 Europe Think Tank Summit Report: Closing the Gap between Knowledge, Policy and Good Governance in the Digital Age” 2018.

As a result, the report also calls for an effort on behalf of think tanks to train their employees in these data analysis and computer science skills. While artificial intelligence poses a threat to developed nations who could see high levels of unemployment, think tanks should not be afraid of engaging with such tools because, as stated in the report, AI can only go as far as regurgitating information. The analysis needs human life.

Lastly, think tanks should remember to work together if they are to tackle the policy issue of populism.10 Despite think tanks being self-motivated and competitive with one another, ego must be cast aside; “It is important that executives keep reminding themselves that the issues plaguing Europe are more important than glory.”11 Accordingly, think tanks must ensure that they are producing as unbiased research as possible and that their findings are not influenced by donors.

Climate Change

At past summits, the issue of climate change and developing cooperative global efforts to address it have been of utmost importance. Climate change is by no means a new issue, but its observable impacts on the environment in Europe and around the world are persistently increasing.

Achieving sustainability is an objective that intersects with policy areas including economy, health, and immigration. The 2019 European Think Tank Summit (ETTS) report emphasized the need to blend climate discourse with these other policy dynamics while noting the difficulty of

10 Stoub, Jeff, “World’s Think Tanks Confront Rising Populism and Nationalism at Montreal Summit” (2016) https://www.cigionline.org/articles/worlds-think-tanks-confront-rising-populism-and-nationalism- montreal-summit 11 Konrad-Adenauer-Stifting e.V and McKinsey Global Institute. “2018 Europe Think Tank Summit Report: Closing the Gap between Knowledge, Policy and Good Governance in the Digital Age” 2018.

doing so. As different sectors of society have competing interests and strategies, a critical question was how to coalesce to tackle this important issue.12

The report also reflects that while drawing attention to climate change and integrating it with other pertinent policy areas is important, think tanks and policymakers must be responsible about how they relay climate policy to the public. The 2019 ETTS report highlighted how important working with rather than against the public will be to engineering a sustainable future.

A risk when addressing climate change with the public is promoting the normalization of climate issues in mainstream discourse. At the 2019 summit, think tanks discussed the need to fight this normalization and to increase a sense of urgency about climate issues among the public.13

Think tanks discussed potential sources of reluctance to climate change policies as diminishing many of these concerns is vital to energizing the public about climate policy. One issue think tanks observed was push back against the effects of climate policies on the working and middle class in particular. The Yellow Vest movement demonstrated a broad resistance to taxes and legislation that disproportionately affected these groups, so think tanks ought to discuss climate policy through a class-lens and consider how to accommodate different populations.14

Mobilizing support for climate action has also been restricted by public apprehension about inter-state cooperation. The spread of populism and nationalism has exacerbated reluctance to climate policy, partially due to its global nature.15 These anti-globalist waves have seriously challenged the efficacy of international climate agreements and the prospects of involving the public in climate policy. Think tanks discussed ways to inhibit populist misinformation and garner

12 McGann, James G., "2019 European Think Tank Summit" (2019) 13 Ibid. 14 Williamson, Vanessa, “What France’s Yellow Vest protests reveal about the future of climate action” (2018) 15 Dervis, Kemal and Sebastian Strauss, “What COVID-19 means for international cooperation,” 2020. https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/what-covid-19-means-for-international-cooperation/

greater support for science-based evidence.16 This is an issue that remains relevant and that reinforces the importance of placing climate policy within the scope of broader political and economic dynamics.

The Impact of Brexit

Brexit has posed a challenge to the future of the EU and its uncertainty makes EU decisions and planning difficult in the long term. However, as shown through the 2019 Europe Summit,

Brexit is evidence that Think Tanks must understand how to “address the global populist movements and its effects.17” Think Tanks must use Brexit as an example and strive to understand the wants and needs of the public. These issues are especially important when engaging with issues related to the EU. Solutions proposed by Think Tanks during the summit included focus groups, conferences, and general engagement with the target audience.

In the 2019 Europe Summit, it was discussed how Brexit demonstrates the value of EU membership and identity because it is an example of “the difficulties involved in withdrawal and making citizens reflect on their relationship to the EU.”18 The Brexit negotiations were a powerful demonstration of the “effectiveness and power of European unity.19” However, this does not mean that think tanks are content with how the EU functions, and they still believe that reform is necessary. Many think tanks in Europe, address EU reforms as a major part of their research and key policy.

16 Morillas, Pol, “Grappling with Dissent: How Can Think Tanks Cope with Politicisation?” (2019) https://www.cidob.org/en/publications/publication_series/opinion/seguridad_y_politica_mundial/grappling_ with_dissent_how_can_think_tanks_cope_with_politicisation 17 McGann, James G., "2019 European Think Tank Summit" (2019) 18 McGann, James G., "2019 European Think Tank Summit" (2019) 19 Ibid.

Within England, think tanks such as Chatham House have hosted debates and discussions of Brexit. They focus on the future of England and the EU. An area of interest and concern of

Chatham House is the UK’s food system. Many aspects of this system including manufacturing transport, retailing and consumptions have strong ties to England's EU. membership, more than any other industry. Therefore, England’s withdrawal from the EU will have major repercussions in this industry.

Further, in 2019, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published an article on how transatlantic foreign policy cooperation could evolve following Brexit. In highlighting how

“for London, the traditional playbook on major foreign policy issues—align with Washington, lead an EU response—is now no longer always the one that is followed”, the author presents a series of ideas to how governments can adapt to the new political landscape with policies that are in line with their party’s beliefs.20

Other think tanks have explored the immediate impacts of the decision. Such is the case for Bruegel which in 2019 published a blog post entitled ‘Where Brexit goes, the law will follow.’

Among explaining how Brexit has affected the financial as well as legal sectors in London, the author explores the new dichotomy between the EU and UK post-Brexit and how both will need to adjust to the decision accordingly; “Brexit will be a catalyst for all sides to push for change on their priorities”.21

20 Whineray, David. “How transatlantic foreign policy cooperation could evolve after Brexit.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. September 3rd, 2019. 21 Christie, Rebecca. “Where Brexit goes, the law shall follow.” Bruegel. June 25th 2019

Europe’s relationship with China

One of the challenges addressed in the 2018 summit is whether with the rise of populism and a failed Russia would be good for the West. China plays an important role in international affairs, and has particularly close ties to Russia, which should be addressed by taking it into consideration in the trans-Atlantic discussion. The differences in the Chinese political system and the one in the West have to also be taken into account. The main features of the communist party in power in China are the tight business control, the growth of techno-nationalism along with the threat at the political level, and China’s position against the West’s liberal order. China’s inflexibility poses barriers which limit cooperative possibilities for Europe which leads to a substantive effort to co-exist with Trump.22

In the 2019 Summit, one of the main topics was the trade wars that are happening between different countries and the issue of the tensions between the US and China were addressed. The inability of the two largest economies to settle and agree with each other over trade agreements and the threat of a trade war approaching could have long-term serious consequences. When taking trade wars concerning China into consideration, the Summit drew the conclusions that the EU needed to take the current and future role of China as well as how China’s growth will impact the

European markets and working class into consideration.23

The year 2019 played a significant role for the EU-China relations, since the EU dealt with

China in a much tougher manner than before. This change in attitude from the EU towards China will likely be a trend which will continue throughout the coming years. There are several key issues

22 McGann, James G., "2018 European Think Tank Summit" (2018)

23 McGann, James G., "2019 European Think Tank Summit" (2019)

which both parties will have to discuss and agree upon in the near future, including an accord on a bilateral investment agreement and whether European governments give the Chinese company

Huawei contracts for building out 5G networks. Yet, despite the more assertive European approach, the EU remains keen on maintaining cordial relations with Beijing and ensuring strong continued business ties, especially since China is the EU’s second most important trading partner after the US.24

Artificial Intelligence

One of the groundbreaking frontiers of technology is the development of Artificial

Intelligence. Its development would greatly affect economics, politics, education and many other segments of society, which is why it was one of the topics discussed in the 2018 European Think

Tank Summit.25 Discussions revolved around the role of AI and big data in the future of European think tanks. Big data has provided new opportunities for interconnectedness and for researchers to conduct new projects on a macro scale. Think tanks can utilize the same technological tools that populist leaders use to rally their base but to do this, they must expand upon their skills in data analytics. This will prove to be a big challenge, as one of the main conclusions of the summit was that European think tanks are lacking in the analysis of data and innovations.

Solving this would include changes in the training of their staff and diversifying their workforce to include those with skills in coding, computer languages and quantitative/qualitative data analysis. Think tanks continue to struggle with maintaining influence over key decision makers and innovation will help address this issue. Artificial Intelligence will replace many

24 Carnegie Endowment, "The EU and China in 2020: More Competition Ahead" (2020)

25 McGann, James G., "2018 European Think Tank Summit" (2018)

manual labour jobs within the near future, especially in developing nations. This is a controversial issue, with some hailing it as an opportunity for human advancement and others fearing its disruptive qualities that could lead to mass unemployment around the globe.

Therefore, think tanks must be vigilant of this issue. AI can be used to reinvent the way we analyze and interpret data but cannot be used to interpret and utilize this data. Therefore, think tanks must embrace technological change, as new AI will not replace them, but can rather be utilized for the enhancement of these institutions. It was stated in the summit report that “If think tanks are able to utilize this technology in an effective manner immediately and make it work to their benefit, the potential for good is astounding. Not only will think tanks remain alive, but they will be more active and influential than ever.”26 For example, projects will become shorter due to increased ability to analyze data. The report recommends that think tanks in Europe continue to increase their capacity to utilize big data, technology, and AI in order to continue to justify their existence.

Data Collection and Analysis

Methodology

Each year, TTCSP conducts a data collection and analysis with the goal of reflecting the scope of operations for think tanks around the world. Organizations throughout the world were contacted to provide updates to the Think Tank Database including information about the history, establishment, and affiliations for the organization as well as details about staff, budget, areas of policy interest and key research areas. In preparing for the European Summit, additional analysis

26 McGann, James G., "2018 European Think Tank Summit" (2018)

was conducted on the basis of the data reported in the Think Tank Database. In this report, we specifically analyzed the data collected on Western European countries due to the TTCSP Central and Eastern Europe Team analyzing the data for the rest of the region. Details of our analysis are summarized in the following charts. We collected data from 236 think tanks from 18 different countries.

Data on Annual Budgets

Of the 236 think tanks that responded to the survey, 212 responded to the question asking about their annual budget. Due to the data being submitted in several different currencies the team decided to to convert all of the data into United States Dollars (USD) so we could effectively compare the data provided. Firstly, as the Euro is the currency for the majority of European currencies, we assumed that data entries that did not specify currency were in Euros. We identified the other currencies that data were entered in: USD, Great British Pounds (GBP), Swedish Krone (SEK), Danish Krone (DKK or

DKR), Swiss Frank (CHF). We used the following conversion table using the rates on 7/14/2020.

Currency Equivalent in USD

Euro 1.14

USD 1

SEK 0.11

DKK 0.15

DKR 0.15

CHF 1.06

GBP 1.25

In order to analyze this information, the following clarifying assumptions were applied to a data table spreadsheet that could then be tabulated, computed and charted:

● Country names were identified in English (Spain for Espana, The Netherlands, Italy for

Italia)

● One entry was listed as Spain/Portugal. For the purpose of analysis this was estimated as

50% to each country

● One entry was listed in partnership with Senegal, this was excluded from the analysis

● One entry was listed as affiliated with the United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (MOD)

and the budget amount appeared to be much larger than the average think tank and was

excluded from the analysis

Presented here are the findings for the average budget in USD for think tanks in the Western

European countries surveyed. It is clear from the data that Germany, Austria, and Ireland have significantly higher average budgets than other countries. An average budget of $4-6 million is common for countries in the region. The second graph displays the total budget per country in

USD. Similarly, Germany has the largest total budget and Greece, Scotland, Iceland, and

Denmark remain the lowest both in terms of average and total budget. The third pie chart displays the relative percentage of the entire budget for all Western European think tanks, with

Germany representing 40.8% of the total budget and Austria and Portugal taking significantly smaller but the second and third largest percentage of the total budget.

Data on Human Resources

As shown in the first chart, the average number of staff members per think tank in Western Europe ranges from a low of 1 in Scotland and a high of 86 in Germany. It is important to look at these figures in the context of their respective countries. This is illustrated by the second graph. For example, Iceland, Ireland, and Scotland only have one think tank, and therefore, the average number of staff members per think tank only represents the one think tank. In contrast, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain all have over

20 think tanks. Therefore, their average number of research staff represents a range of think tanks, from those with a handful of researchers to those with a team of over 90.

It is also important to note that some of the averages exclude outliers in order to show a representative sample. The countries that have been adjusted for outliers are Belgium, Denmark, Germany, and Portugal. By removing outliers, the data gives a more accurate demonstration of the trends of research staff in think tanks. The average staff number in the region is 62 people. However, this number is higher than many of the staff sizes in countries because of larger outliers. The median staff size in Europe is 23 people. It is important to look at both key numbers to obtain an accurate picture of the region.

Data on Key Research Programs

The survey asked respondents to identify the key policy areas that their think tank focused on. As the format of the survey allowed for open answers, we had to categorize their answers in order to be able to compare the research programs. There were thirteen categories: Global Health,

International Development, Education, Environment, Food, Transparency and Good Governance,

Energy and Resources, Defense and National Security, Science and Technology, International

Economics, Domestic Economics, Foreign Policy and International Affairs, Social Policy. The

first pie chart displays the key research programs throughout the region, followed by country specific breakdowns for countries in the region with the highest number of think tanks.

Key Research Programs in Belgium

Our sample revealed that the main area of focus for Belgian think tanks focus is the issue of Social Policy. It is notable that these institutions are not only researching about Belgian issues but also European topics more generally. Many important policy decisions for the whole continent are taken in Brussels and there is a matching think tank scene. In second place in our sample is the topic of Transparency & Good Governance. This indicates that improving the EU's governance along with its social policies assumes protagonism in Belgium, especially with the EU's political structures being questioned in the last years, with calls for reform. Other issues that showed up with secondary relevance were International Economics, Energy & Resources and Defense &

National Security. These three topics had 11.8% of our sample, which is significantly higher than our sample's regional percentages (7.1%, 3.1%, 8.9%).

Key Research Programs in France

The French think tank ecosystem, according to our sample, has less pulverized policy areas of focus in comparison to their Belgian neighbors to the north. Transparency & Good

Governance come ahead with 28.6% in the first place, focusing more in improving the efficiency of the French state. Social Policy is the second biggest topic, with 19%, showing similarity to the main topics in Belgium but with a larger proportion of the think tank scene, at least in our sample. Our French sample also presented a high proportion of think tanks focused on Defense & national Security, with 14.3%. It was interesting to observe that the main policy areas of France and Belgium were quite similar, especially when taking into consideration that both countries have similar cultures and share the same language in some parts.

Key Research Programs in Spain

According to our sample, Spanish think tanks focus mainly on 2 policy areas Domestic

Economics and Transparency & Good Governance. 22% of our sample was focused in Spanish economics which is interesting considering that the country has faced significant economic downturns since the 2008 crisis and has been one of the problematic economies of the EU. The country follows the same pattern as other countries in the region, with 22% of think tanks in our sample also focusing on Transparency &

Good Governance. Additionally, it is also interesting to observe that Foreign Policy & International affairs come at 22% in our sample, which almost follows the sample's regional average 17.3%.

Key Research Programs in Germany

Environmental research programs compose a quarter of topics covered by German think tanks. This is notable when compared to the regional research program breakdown where environmental programs only occupy 7.6%. In Belgium, environmental research is only 6% of their topic breakdown. Germany is clearly an outlier in Western Europe in terms of dedicating resources to environmental research. Social policy, transparency and good governance, and energy and resources all respectively occupy 15% of the research programs in Germany. The first two categories align with the regional average, but the energy and resources program is 3 times larger in Germany than the regional average. Notably, Germany’s defense and national security program occupies 4% of its general composition, five points less than the regional average as well. While

some of its research topics align well with the general trends in Western Europe, it is evident that

Germany has devoted its resources uniquely and distinctly to its neighbors.

Key Research Programs in Italy

Based on the responses provided to our survey, the areas covered by think tanks in Italy had the most emphasis in four areas: Domestic Economics, Social

Policy, and Foreign Policy &

International Affairs. Additional areas covered include Defense & National Security,

International Development, International

Economics, Environment and in Transparency and Good Governance. In 2020, as the global

COVID-19 crisis emerged, Italy was its first epicenter in Europe. Highlighted as a “laboratory for political ideas”, Italy is at the crossroads of politics, economics, social change, and most recently, the changes underway due to COVID-19 as well as the approaches to respond to these factors.27

Key Research Programs in the United Kingdom

The key research programs in the United Kingdom are focused on Transparency and Good

Governance, Foreign Policy and International Affairs, and International Development which make up 20%, 18%, and 18% respectively. Think tanks that fall into these categories make up almost two thirds of think tanks surveyed. This is comparable to the region in general, where Foreign

27 Donadio, Rachel, “The Coronavirus Exposed the West’s Weakest Link”, The Atlantic, July 21, 2020.

Policy and International Affairs think tanks make up 17.3% of the total think tank universe.

.International Development and Transparency and Good Governance think tanks are overrepresented in the United Kingdom in comparison with the region. Key research areas that are underrepresented in the United Kingdom are Energy and Resources and International Economics.

These research areas are also underrepresented in the region, but more so in the United Kingdom.

Potential Themes for the 2021 European Think Tank Summit

Given the literature review and the data collected on European think tanks, we decided to choose potential summit themes that reflected the previous policy issues addressed within the context of COVID-19. During the literature review, we noted the significance of populism, climate change, and international cooperation and decided that these issues should continue to be discussed in the context of the pandemic. We also noted that the survey suggested that while Social Policy, Foreign Policy and International Affairs, and Transparency and Good

Governance were key research topics in the region, think tanks focused on Global Health are very unrepresented in the region. We predict that this number will increase as the pandemic continues.

The potential summit themes described below will serve as a starting point in creating an effective agenda for the summit that continues previous conversations while looking towards recovery from

COVID-19 in the region.

Economic Recovery after COVID-19

Economic recovery post-COVID-19 can take many forms, one of which will involve the emergence of think tanks in producing well-founded and constructive public policy research.

According to World Bank forecasts, the global economy will shrink by 5.2% this year, the deepest recession since World War Two. Among advanced economies, economic activity is expected to shrink 7% in 2020 whereas emerging markets and developing economies are forecasted to shrink by 2.5%.28 As specified by the report, the recession will hit hardest in countries where the pandemic has been the most severe and those which rely heaviest on global trade, tourism, commodity exports, and external financing.

Even though Europe is posed to be one of the hardest hit economies in the world, with a projected GDP growth of -7.5%, analysts believe that the Euro area could have a relatively successful recovery in 2021, with projections of 4.7% economic growth, much higher than the normal 1-2% growth found pre covid. In this case, European integration is expected to aid in the recovery efforts, as hard hit countries (which are predominantly in the south of the continent) will be able to receive meaningful stimulus packages from wealthy countries like Germany, which are dependent on their neighbors for trade. However, there has been controversy in how hard-hit countries like Spain will be helped, as certain Northern European countries resist giving grants instead of loans as they feel it unfairly burdens their tax payers and creates a degree of debt sharing that many nations are uncomfortable with. Many believe that a uniform recovery effort is essential,

28 The World Bank. “COVID-19 to Plunge Global Economy into Worst Recession since World War II,” 2020. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/06/08/covid-19-to-plunge-global-economy- into-worst-recession-since-world-war-ii

as divisions could permanently fracture the European project and bring back tensions not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.29

The global recession following COVID-19 could hit think tanks just as hard. Drawing parallels with how think tanks were urged to handle to trickle down effects from the 2008 financial crisis and the situation in Crimea detailed in the 2014 European Summit Report, think tanks will need to invest in the following five goals: securing core funding; engaging social media and reaching out to diverse audiences; maximizing impact; maintaining relevance; and building regional and global networks.30

Populism and Nationalism post-COVID

Over the past few years, the effects of populism and nationalism on the world order have been critical points of inquiry at Europe Think Tank Summits. This year’s theme Populism,

Nationalism, and COVID would explore how these dynamics were affected by the pandemic and, in hand, how these progressions themselves influenced responses to the global health crisis. In some ways, COVID-19 seems to undermine populist and nationalist sentiments. Countries have had to work together towards a common goal in unprecedented ways—not against other states, but against an invisible enemy. Such a collaborative global defense effort challenges the antecedent nationalist tide. Further, one recent commonality among populist leaders is that they have been associated with the least coordinated and least successful pandemic responses. By exposing this failed leadership when put to the test and the futility of antagonizing experts, COVID might

29 International Monetary Fund. “World Economic Outlook, April 2020: The Great Lockdown,” 2020. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020#Chapter%202 30 McGann, James G. “2014 European Think Tank Summit Report: Emerging From the Crisis: The Role of Think Tanks on the Road Ahead,” 2014.

challenge the viability of nationalism and populism. This role of COVID in undermining enemies of cooperative liberal democracy will be an important topic during the upcoming summit.31

Alternatively, however, there are reasons to believe populism and nationalism are not going anywhere. Some evidence even suggests the pandemic has reinforced them and these conversations are similarly urgent and relevant to the theme. It will also be necessary to understand the future effects of authoritarian measures that were taken to counteract the pandemic. Another interesting impact to consider is whether the post-COVID world will be more resistant to globalization due to supply chain difficulties and inter-connected economic failure. Over the next months it will become clear if governments that used the pandemic to justify autocratic measures, nationalist sentiments, and individual political interests will have been successful in their pursuits.32

Climate Change

Climate Change has been a key issue shaping international cooperation in recent decades.

From the Kyoto Protocol, to the Paris agreement, countries have been continuing their scientific research on the current and future impacts of climate change and its political and diplomatic implications. The EU has often been considered a world policy leader creating and implementing policies that shape further international discourse on the global response to climate change. In

2020, the European Green Deal and the European Climate Law were proposed, calling for gradual

31 Bieber, Florian, “Global Nationalism in Times of the COVID-19 Pandemic,” 2020. https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge- core/content/view/3A7F44AFDD6AC117AE05160F95738ED4/S0090599220000355a.pdf/global_nationali sm_in_times_of_the_covid19_pandemic.pdf 32 Simoni, Alessandro, “Populist legal strategies and enforcement discretion in Italy in the COVID-19 emergency,” 2020. https://flore.unifi.it/retrieve/handle/2158/1193220/479229/COVID- 19%20e%20os%20impactospagine.pdf

restrictions on carbon emissions and a just transition towards carbon neutrality by 2050 which the

EU has committed to.33

COVID-19 has led to scientific innovation, interdependence and international cooperation in order to solve a public health crisis. However, the threat of climate change will pose more than just a public health threat but will require the same skills in combating a pandemic. There is an urgent need for innovative and effective strategies that can gain support from many aspects of society that promote carbon reduction and sustainable development. European think tanks should be at the forefront of advising the EU, national governments, general public, and the media on the most effective strategies in confronting the climate crisis and encouraging international cooperation in dealing with the issues created by climate change.34

The role of the EU post-COVID

In recent years, increased globalization has created a world of interconnected politics, economies, and cultures. In light of the COVID 19 pandemic, globalization came to a complete standstill as countries attempted to minimize the effect of the pandemic on their people and their local economies. Some countries were able to quickly close their borders, but countries within the

EU were faced with a more complicated scenario, since free travel has long been a trademark between the 27 member countries. As countries begin to open their borders once again, leaders and states must decide how to restart a globalized world while ensuring the safety of their citizens.

The post-pandemic future may lead down a road of more isolationist tendencies, and so, the EU

33 EDC. “Climate change challenges for EU development co-operation: emerging issues,” 2020. http://protosh2o.act.be/VIRTUELE_BIB/Noord-Zuidrelaties/MIL- Milieu_en_Technologie/MIL_E33_climate_change.pdf 34 Bruyninckx, Hans, “Reflecting on climate-neutrality ambitions in Europe in times of Covid-19,” 2020. https://www.eea.europa.eu/articles/reflecting-on-climate-neutrality-ambitions

will be an important pacesetter for the future of globalization.35 As trust in international institutions declines and the positive aspects of globalization are overshadowed by the downsides of an interconnected world, groups such as the EU must take action to demonstrate their relevance and importance.36

The role of think tanks in post-COVID world

The social sciences have long played an important role in pandemic response; while hard science may offer us containment plans, treatments, and vaccines, ultimately those solutions, in order to be implemented, rely on effective public policy and social organization. In addition to shaping policy, the social sciences can help us to understand why a pandemic progresses the way it does- in the case of the 2014-2016 Ebola crisis, for example, social scientists identified local burial practices in several regions that contributed to the continued spread of the disease despite other containment measures, while other regions suffered from a chronic lack of trust in government, meaning that medical work was more effectively done through community organizations.37 At their best, think tanks can play the role of a bridge between the applied sciences

(such as vaccine research taking place at universities and corporations) and the social sciences, transforming theories into actionable plans curated for the regions that they serve.38

35 Rediker, Douglas A. and Giovanna De Maio, “Europe and the existential challenge of post-COVID recovery,” 2020. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/04/20/europe-and-the- existential-challenge-of-post-covid-recovery/ 36 Dervis, Kemal and Sebastian Strauss, “What COVID-19 means for international cooperation,” 2020. https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/what-covid-19-means-for-international-cooperation/ 37 Biggins, Ed, “The future of think tanks in a post-Covid-19 world: Looking to (social) science for the answers,” 2020. https://www.idrneu.org/democracy-and-civil-society/idrn-democracy-and-civil-society- research 38 McGann, James G. “Global Think Tank Town Hall: Saving Lives and Livelihoods” 2020.

This is not only something think tanks can do- it is, increasingly, something that think tanks must do. Much ink has been spilled on the future of think tanks in civil society, and how funding and distribution models must shift in order for institutions to maintain their standards and continue to serve their missions in an increasingly competitive landscape. COVID-19 has accelerated this process, making issues that were formerly chronic increasingly acute. Many think tanks will not live to see a post-COVID world; but those that do will be much stronger for it. One potential strategy, adopted by Chatham House among others, is to expand the scope of their intended audience, from policy-makers and experts to average citizens in need of reliable, evidence-based information on the ongoing public health crisis. To this end, they have begun distributing a general- audience newsletter with their findings. This type of mixed-audience model is only one of several being employed by think tanks rising to meet the challenge of COVID.39

European Think Tank Summit 2021: Planning and Logistics

The European Think Tank Summit gathers policy experts from Europe and other regions of the globe to discuss and explore the questions currently circulating the political and economic global sphere. The 2021 summit will look significantly different than other years reflecting the changing circumstances posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to select the participants of the summit, we created a database to include the participants from other summits including the

European Think Tank Summit 2017, 2018, and 2019 and the Global Think Tank Summit 2018 and

2019. We had a particular interest in including participants from smaller underrepresented countries to ensure diversity. Therefore, we intentionally added think tank executives from Central

39 Babu, Suresh C., “Revitalizing Policy Think Tanks in Developing Countries: COVID-19 Challenges and Opportunities” 2020. https://www.agrilinks.org/post/revitalizing-policy-think-tanks-developing-countries- covid-19-challenges-and-opportunities

and Eastern Europe to the potential participant database. The goal is for the distribution of the participants to be an accurate representation of the voices of the world while elevating the voices of the lesser heard. Even though the summit is centered on European think tanks, it is of utmost importance to invite perspectives from all across the world. The database has a total of 556 potential participants which come from North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. A geographic analysis of this participant database has ensured that the participants at the summit proportionately represent the points of view of all continents.

322 or 65.2% of the potential participants are think tank executives from European countries.

Within them, we tried to accurately represent the diversity within the region. Of the 322, 249 are from Western Europe and 73 are from Central and

Eastern Europe. Within these regions, we have represented 17 Western European and 20 Central and Eastern European countries. Western European countries are better represented with an average of

15 potential participants from each country, whereas there is an average of 4 participants per country from the Central and Eastern European region. However, we specifically added think tank executives from highly ranked think tanks in

Central and Eastern Europe, particularly from

Slovakia and Ukraine.

Conclusion: Questions for future research

In conclusion, this report has detailed the several ways in which the policy, strategic, and operational challenges facing European think tanks have been building throughout time but has been uniquely shaped by the COVID-19 crisis which should be a key topic in the upcoming summit. The collection of this data now is important to track the outcome of funding and researcher numbers for European think tanks to analyze how they have been impacted by the outbreak, both financially and in the quality of their research. We noted how think tanks dedicated to Global

Health are underrepresented in the region and predict that this will change as the continent continues to grapple with the pandemic. Both the potential summit themes reflecting the pressing issues facing Europe and a diverse participant list will create a productive and interesting 2021

European Think Tank Summit that we aim to lead to effective collaboration and policy-making.

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Authors

Project Lead, Natasha Porter is a recent graduate of Bryn Mawr College, graduating in May 2020 with a B.A. Political Science. Her main academic interests are International Relations and Women's and Gender Studies. She joined the Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program (TTCSP) internship in Fall 2019 and was part of the Europe Team planning the 2020 European Think Tank Summit in Fall 2019 and Spring 2020. In the Summer of 2020 she is leading the Europe Summit team and working on the North America Data Collection Team and the G20/T20 Team. Outside of TTCSP, she has also worked as a research assistant, where she researched feminist activism and gender-based violence in Southern Africa, as well as immigration in the Philadelphia-area. In Summer 2019, she interned for PennEnvironment where she researched state-level environmental policy and lobbied for clean water legislation in Pennsylvania. After graduation, she hopes to gain experience in International Affairs before pursuing a Graduate Degree in International Relations.

Juan Cardenas is a sophomore at the University of Pennsylvania. He is a sophomore in the Huntsman Program for International Studies and Business, studying finance, business analytics in Wharton, and International Studies in the College. He is a dual American and Colombian citizen with a vast interest in Latin America. He is fluent in Spanish and Portuguese. Juan Pablo has previously participated in the Iraqi Young Leaders Exchange Program, a state department funded program between 40 Iraqi students and 10 American students, where he led dialogue sessions and participated in conflict resolution and project management workshops. At the University, he is the finance chair for the Wharton Undergraduate Travel and Hospitality Club and an active member of Wharton Latino and the Kappa Sigma Fraternity.

Caroline Condon is a Junior at the University of Pennsylvania studying Economics with minors in Consumer Psychology and Spanish. Her main areas of study are Marketing and International Economics. She is fluent in English and Spanish and plans to continue her study of Spanish both at Penn and abroad. At the University of Pennsylvania, Caroline is very involved in the Undergraduate Economics Society. She is on the Marketing team, where she helps to run the club's Facebook page and advertise events. In the Summer of 2019, Caroline was an intern at a retail startup accelerator XRC labs. At XRC she worked in business development and sourcing, where she researched, contacted, and ran screen calls with potential startup investments. She is currently an intern at 30X, a global tech advisory startup, where she assists on various projects including industry deep-dives and grant research.

Pedro Giestas is a first-year student at Columbia University studying history along with a minor in philosophy. He is specially interested in Urban history and understanding how cities shaped the world we live in today along with intellectual and post-colonial history. As a Brazilian citizen,

Pedro is specially interested in Latin-American affairs as well. He was raised bilingual in German and Portuguese and is also fluent in English along with intermediate Spanish skills. Prior to freshman year, Pedro served as a youth parliamentarian in Brazil and worked as a summer communication apprentice in McKinsey's São Paulo office, contributing in content creation, event planning and the managing of partnerships. In his first year at Columbia, Pedro has worked as a staff-writer for the Columbia Daily Spectator's feature magazine, reporting on topics such as Climate Change and student activism. He is also an Intern at Trybe, an education startup in São Paulo, where he works in the area of Student Success.

Bruce Hecht applies design and systems thinking for creative innovation. Originally from Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Bruce holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees in applied science from the University of Waterloo. Bruce was awarded 5 US Patents and has released breakthrough new products for automotive, industrial, medical, aerospace and consumer electronics. Bruce is dedicated to learning, applying, and teaching new skills and building capacity for understanding and influencing future systems. He holds a Certified Achievement in Alliance Management from the Association of Strategic Alliance Professionals, a Certified Six Sigma Black Belt through the American Society for Quality, and Associate Systems Engineering Professional with INCOSE. He joined the Corporate Advisory Board for INCOSE in 2018 and helped shape and organize the INCOSE/IEEE Design for Action Workshop at the UN 68th Civil Society Conference in the summer of 2019 at Salt Lake City, Utah. Bruce is the CEO of VG2PLAY, based at the Cambridge Innovation Center, and a founding member of Ideas in Action, producer of TEDxBeaconStreet. His TEDx talk “Engage Your Curiosity” was an invited presentation at the National University of Singapore @ TEDxNUS. Bruce is currently an Advanced Study Program Fellow at MIT, participating in the Systems Architecting of Future Enterprises and the J-WEL World Education Laboratory.

Isabella Rocco is a Sophomore at the University of Pennsylvania studying Politics, Philosophy, and Economics. She is interested in the legal relationships between different states and their institutions. At Penn and beyond, Isabella hopes to explore these dynamics and their impacts on our increasingly globalized world. She is fluent in Italian and Spanish and looks forward to applying both languages throughout her career. After having attained certified biliteracy in both Spanish and Italian, Isabella joined the government program the National Language Service Corps (NLSC), whose members provide interpretation and translation for federal agencies and programs. Isabella has gained meaningful skills and experiences through her enthusiastic participation in collegiate parliamentary debate and Model UN. As a summer 2020 research intern for the Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program, Isabella is a member of four teams: the Europe Summit, the Central and South America team, the 2020 Global Go-To Index team, and the Global Issues, Politics, and Governance team.

Layal Salaymeh is a student at University of Business and Economics of Vienna. Having grown up in a cosmopolitan environment, Layal is able to communicate in 4 different languages. Due to her Middle Eastern heritage, she spoke Arabic at home. Before attending the American International School in Vienna and receiving the International Baccalaureate, she was in the French school until the age of 15. She then went on to study mainly in German, at the University of Business and Economics of Vienna. The exposure to these different environments allowed her to learn and enriched her in ways that could not have been taught in any other manner than through personal experience. At the peak of the refugee crisis, Layal worked as a German-Arabic translator after school and on weekends. In the summer of 2019, she spent seven weeks in an intensive and immersive Arabic programme at the American University of Beirut. She is due to graduate in September 2020, being in the top 10% of the students in her university.

Allegra Solari is a junior at the University of Pennsylvania whose interests include international economics, globalization, and business. While at Penn, she volunteers at an elementary school in West Philadelphia as a student mentor. Allegra’s experience as an Argentine citizen and American resident has heavily influenced her interests in politics in Latin and South America. In the summer of 2019, Alegra interned at KOKET, a Portuguese furniture designer and manufacturer, as a Sales and Finance intern. There she managed client outreach and helped develop strategies to expand the company into Spain. At Penn, Alegra volunteers as a student mentor for elementary school students in Philadelphia.

Annarosa Zampaglione is a rising sophomore at Columbia University studying History and French Literature. She is most interested in 19th century intellectual and conflict History. She is Italian but grew up in Washington D.C, where she began to nurture her interest in development economics and international affairs. Further, after moving back to Italy for high school, her appreciation for international organizations connecting isolated corners of the world grew exponentially. With this mind, in the Summer of 2017, she attended the Teen Summer Program hosted by the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund where she collaborated with other members to try and find solutions to broad economic challenges of the developing world. Later, she also participated actively and led her boarding school's MUN club. At Columbia, she is a regular writer for the undergraduate journal of sustainable development, Consilience, and Columbia's Undergraduate Law Review. She is fluent in English, Italian and French.