Europe's Future on the World Stage: Analyzing The European Think Tank Landscape Europe Summit Team Final Report Summer 2020 Natasha Porter, Project Lead Juan Cardenas Caroline Condon Pedro Giestas Bruce Hecht Isabella Rocco Layal Salaymeh Allegra Solari Annarosa Zampaglione Table of Contents Introduction 1 Literature Review 3 Data Collection and Analysis 12 Potential Themes for the 2021 European Think Tank Summit 21 European Think Tank Summit 2021: Planning and Logistics 27 Conclusion: Questions for future research 29 Introduction 1 According to the 2019 Global Go To Think Tank Index, there are 8,248 think tanks worldwide, with 2,219 of those think tanks located in Europe.1 Europe has the highest number of think tanks out of any continent, followed by North America with 2,058 think tanks with the majority of North American think tanks based in the United States. Within Europe, the United Kingdom, Germany, Russia, and France all have more than 200 registered think tanks in their respective countries. The number of think tanks in Europe varies within the region with 1,523 think tanks in Western European countries and 696 located in Central and Eastern European countries. The Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program (TTCSP) has continuously focused on collecting data and conducting research on think tanks and the role that they play in the policymaking process.2 This work includes planning and hosting international summits, and TTCSP has hosted six European Think Tank Summits between 2013 and 2019. The objective of this report is to analyze the key issues facing Europe as a region and European think tanks in 2020 to produce research that will support the planning and agenda setting of the 2021 European Think Tank Summit. We aim to answer the following question: What are the unique policy, strategic and operational challenges facing European think tanks in 2020? We will answer this research question by identifying key issues in Europe from previous European Think Tank Summits and relevant literature, utilizing the data collected on European think tanks in 2020 to identify trends in the region, synthesizing the literature review and data analysis to suggest potential summit themes based on our research, and conclude with recommendations for future research. This research is relevant to TTCSP and all parties interested in the future of 1 McGann, James G., "2019 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report" (2020). TTCSP Global Go To Think Tank Index Reports. 17. https://repository.upenn.edu/think_tanks/17 2 Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program. 2020. History And Mission — Think Tanks And Civil Societies Program. [online] Available at: <https://www.gotothinktank.com/history-and-mission> [Accessed 19 July 2020]. 2 European think tanks because the challenges facing think tanks in the region have shifted due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and identifying these specific challenges before the upcoming 2021 European Think Tank Summit is essential in creating a relevant agenda for the summit. This report will begin with a literature review that details previously identified challenges facing European think tanks from both summits and research produced by European think tanks. Then, there will be a presentation and analysis of the data TTCSP collected on European think tanks during the summer of 2020. Next, the report will continue with suggestions for potential summit themes for the 2021 European Think Tank Summit that would effectively address the issues raised in the literature review and the data analysis. The report will end with the logistical and planning elements that the TTCSP Europe Summit Team undertook during the summer of 2020 to assist in planning the summit. Finally, we will conclude with our key findings and suggestions for future research. Literature Review In order to answer our question, we reflected on the key policy issues raised in previous European Think Tank Summits. This was to assess the ongoing conversations that were happening between think tanks before the COVID-19 outbreak to better understand how these issues may have shifted due to the outbreak. We identified several key policy areas that were recurring in previous summits - The rise of populism, climate change, the impact of Brexit, Europe’s relationship with China, and Artificial Intelligence. This literature review will detail the previous discussions of these key policy issues and will frame the analysis and conclusions made later in the report. 3 The rise of populism in Europe In recent years, European summits have raised populism as a challenge to think tanks. In order to understand why think tanks have taken interest in the rise of populism in Europe, a literature review of the topic is necessary. In the first chapter of his book The Rise of Populism in Western Europe, Lochoki highlights the reason for populism’s success; “the electoral fortunes of populist radical right parties primarily depend on how moderate parties frame issues of national identity—embodied by immigration and EU topics.”3 In this way, Lochoki argues that the failure of established parties to successfully handle social issues allows populists to gain support through criticism enhanced by social media. With this being said, as the success of populism depends on the decline of moderate parties, the movement is also relatively unstable. In an opinion piece published by Geopolitical Intelligence Services, the author argues that Europe has in some ways populism has already peaked in Europe; “The British Parliament’s apparent success in blocking a no-deal Brexit on October 31 [2019] as well as setbacks for sovereigntist parties elsewhere in Europe have prompted some observers to claim that “populism” in Europe has passed its peak.”4 In this way, the rise of populism as an issue in Europe should also be considered as one that arises in waves rather than a steady incline. The 2018 European Think Tank Summit Report notes how think tanks must “provide valid, fact-based policy advice while simultaneously struggling to battle the slow degradation of their 3 Lochoki, Timo. ‘How the Failed Political Messaging of Moderate Political Actors Strengthens Populist Radical Right Parties in The Rise of Populism’ in Western Europe; A Media Analysis on Failed Political Messaging. Springer. 2018 4 Leigh, Michael. ‘Opinion: Brexit and ‘peak populism’ in Europe’ Geopolitical Intelligence Services. 20 September 2019. 4 reputations due to public disillusion in expertise.”5 Although a challenging task, the report stresses the importance of think tanks in countering the fiery movement as nations once considered allies to Europe, such as the US, have begun making self-interested and hypernationalist moves. Think tanks must thus address the problem “head-on” and clarify what makes populism attractive to so many people.6 More specifically, because populism has brought about a new disdain for expertise and well-informed research, think tanks must work to dispel their ‘ivory tower’ reputation which makes them seem “out of touch with the concerns and issues plaguing citizens at microlevels.”7 To do so is to recognize that think tanks often approach complicated problems with complicated solutions, but that amid the success of rash and irrational decision making of populists, they must refrain from dismissing such policy as “a fool’s errand.”8 Instead, think tanks should not only denounce populist, but understand their appeal and concerns so that they are able to attract the same mass support for populists but in a well-informed and deliberate way. To analyze why exactly populists do so well, the report suggests think tanks expand their collection of big data and use technology to understand how populist leaders maintain their support base despite their outlandish public behavior9. In learning from their past mistakes in that polls were inaccurate predictors, think tanks should analyze big data from social media to track patterns that better reflect reality. 5 Konrad-Adenauer-Stifting e.V and McKinsey Global Institute. “2018 Europe Think Tank Summit Report: Closing the Gap between Knowledge, Policy and Good Governance in the Digital Age” 2018. 6 Konrad-Adenauer-Stifting e.V and McKinsey Global Institute. “2018 Europe Think Tank Summit Report: Closing the Gap between Knowledge, Policy and Good Governance in the Digital Age” 2018. 7 Ibid. 8 Ibid. 9 Konrad-Adenauer-Stifting e.V and McKinsey Global Institute. “2018 Europe Think Tank Summit Report: Closing the Gap between Knowledge, Policy and Good Governance in the Digital Age” 2018. 5 As a result, the report also calls for an effort on behalf of think tanks to train their employees in these data analysis and computer science skills. While artificial intelligence poses a threat to developed nations who could see high levels of unemployment, think tanks should not be afraid of engaging with such tools because, as stated in the report, AI can only go as far as regurgitating information. The analysis needs human life. Lastly, think tanks should remember to work together if they are to tackle the policy issue of populism.10 Despite think tanks being self-motivated and competitive with one another, ego must be cast aside; “It is important that executives keep reminding themselves that the issues plaguing Europe are more important than glory.”11 Accordingly, think tanks must ensure that they are producing as unbiased research as possible and that their findings are not influenced by donors. Climate Change At past summits, the issue of climate change and developing cooperative