THINK TANK REVIEW SEPTEMBER 2020 Council Library ISSUE 81
Council of the European Union General Secretariat
THINK TANK REVIEW SEPTEMBER 2020 Council Library ISSUE 81
This Think Tank Review* covers articles and reports published in July and August relating to different political and policy topics. (twitter link)
The Think Tank reports on the EU’s response to the impact of Covid-19 focus on the agreement brokered at the July European Council regarding the Next Generation EU recovery plan and the European budget (2021-2027). The progress in European integration and the collective and internal solidarity of all member states are commented on in detail as follows: . the scale of the response this agreement will bring to the economies and the progress in European integration both deserve to be commended; their concrete, rapid and visible translation into action is now necessary; . the historic agreement on the EU budget has broken a taboo and advanced the integration process; . the EU that emerges is potentially more integrated and more united. The papers also note the central role the German presidency of the EU Council can play in implementing the recovery fund and explore how the Covid-19 pandemic has changed the working methods of the EU institutions. The publications reflect on how the corona crisis could become a turning point in the European integration process, as the economic constraints within the euro area and the related political tensions are seen as the greatest challenge. The reports analyse the financial fragility of European households in Covid-19 times, the need for an EU anticipatory governance through contingency planning and stress-testing of policies; how an ‘EU health sovereignty’ and the EU’s international leadership in health can be fostered; how Covid-19 has tested the resilience of critical infrastructure and communication networks and systems in cyberspace, and the impact of Covid-19 on security and defence-related aspects.
On EU policy areas, the papers discuss how a legitimate balance can be found between solidarity and responsibility mechanisms in debt mutualisation; the role of fiscal rules in relation to the green economy; how digitalisation can aid progress towards a green, competitive and resilient EU economy, and how Europe can achieve digital sovereignty. They look at the impact of artificial intelligence on fundamental rights in law enforcement and criminal justice; the state of the art in hybrid warfare; how the EU can modernise its trade defence instruments and its networks of free trade agreements; and why Russia’s infrastructure is holding back its ‘pivot to Asia’.
The TTR can be downloaded from Council's Library blog. TTR articles are available via Eureka, the resource discovery service of the Council Libraries.
The Council Library is open to staff of the EU institutions and Permanent Representations of the member states. The general public may use the Library for research purposes. It is located in the Justus Lipsius building, at JL 02 GH, Rue de la Loi 175, 1048 Brussels. Contact: [email protected]
* This collection of abstracts and links was compiled by the Library of the General Secretariat of the EU Council for information purposes only. The content links are the sole responsibility of their authors. Publications linked from this review do not represent the positions, policies or opinions of the Council of the EU or the European Council.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS SPECIAL FOCUS 4 COVID -19 4
SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS 17 SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES 19 Agriculture and Fisheries 19 Competitiveness (Internal Market, Industry, 19 Research and Space) 19 Economic and Financial Affairs 19 Education / Youth / Culture / Sport 21 Employment / Social Policy / Health and Consumer Affairs 22 Environmental Issues 22 General Affairs 23 Justice and Home Affairs 25 Transport / Telecommunications / Energy 26
SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS 29 Foreign and Security Policy / Defence 29 Trade 31 Development 32 Asia-Oceania 33 Eastern Partnership 33 Middle East / North Africa (MENA) 34 Western Balkans 34 China 35 Russia 35 United Kingdom / Brexit 36 United States of America 37
SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES 38 Germany 38 Ireland 38 Greece 38 Spain 38 France 38 Italy 39 Sweden 39
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SPECIAL FOCUS (MS) and the German government will assume a central role here. (12 p.)
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Angela Merkel y cómo la gestión de la crisis de la pandemia puede marcar su legado
by Pilar Requena @RequenaPilar
This report highlights how the successful management of the Covid-19 pandemic has brought the German Chancellor Angela Merkel back to the forefront by proposing together with Emmanuel Macron a 500 billion euro recovery plan. Germany holds the six- COVID -19 month rotating EU presidency and BARCELONA CENTRE FOR expectations are high. Everyone is confident INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS that Angela Merkel will seize this opportunity to strengthen her legacy. (ES - 29 p.) Member states’ expectations towards the German Council Presidency CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES by Sophia Russack @SophiaRussack and Minna Ålander @minna_alander (eds.) Crisis decision-making. How Covid-19 has changed the working methods of the EU As Germany assumes the presidency of the institutions Council of the EU, the Union is facing the “biggest test of its history” according to by Sophia Russack @SophiaRussack and Drew Fenner Chancellor Angela Merkel. The challenges of the Covid-19 and an economic recession The Covid-19 pandemic has caused the could not be more extraordinary. What dynamics of the EU institutions to change. exactly do other MS expect from Germany This contribution analyses the three main and how do they set their policy priorities? institutions (Council, Commission and EP) by (22 p.) describing how decisions are usually made; exploring how they were made in corona DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR times; and assessing how well the individual AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN institutions were equipped and able to adapt COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS) to these unusual circumstances. (21 p.)
Germany’s corona Presidency. Germany’s NOTRE EUROPE / INSTITUT JACQUES leadership role and European partners’ DELORS expectations Un accord historique à améliorer et à by Claire Demesmay @C_Demesmay, Julian Rappold réaliser @JulianRappold, Anna-Lena Kirch et al. by Sébastien Maillard @seb_maillard The expectations of Germany's European partners regarding the country's EU Council It is a potentially more integrated and united presidency are even higher now as a result EU that emerges from the great agreement of the coronavirus crisis. The German concluded between the 27 heads of state government's success will be measured in and government in July on a recovery plan particular by the implementation of an backed by the European multiannual budget. appropriate recovery fund as part of the MFF The scale of the response that this 2021-2027. This will require resolving the agreement will bring to the economies most conflicts of interest between member states affected by the Covid crisis and the progress
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SPECIAL FOCUS in European integration it engages both 2021-2027. In the short term, the European deserve to be commended. Its concrete, Parliament (EP) and national parliaments rapid and visible translation is now must give their consent. (ES - 5 p.) necessary so that the astronomical sums announced to Europeans do not remain CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY distant promises. (FR - 6 p.) STUDIES
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK Reading between the lines of Council agreement on the MFF and Next Generation European economic recovery EU by Jerome Saulnier by Jorge Núñez Ferrer
A more united Europe has the potential to This paper presents a brief rundown of the deliver greater benefits for its citizens, more actual changes in numbers and reflects on effectively and efficiently. This paper the historic agreement on the EU budget. It analyses some of the issues arising has broken a taboo and advanced the specifically in the economic field in the integration process. While attention has aftermath of the coronavirus crisis and looks focused on the Next Generation EU, the at a range of policy initiatives that could help agreement also includes the ‘normal’ MFF build a broadly based and sustainable 2021-27. (7 p.) European economic recovery and a more resilient EU. (13 p.) LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY HERTIE SCHOOL / JACQUES DELORS CENTRE Next generation EU: Una condizionalità virtuosa What the European Council's MFF recovery deal tells us about the EU's global ambition by Gianni Toniolo by Nicole Koenig @Nic_Koenig and Eulalia Rubio Apart from the agreement on the overall size @eulaliarubio of the Next Generation EU fund, confirming the 750 billion proposed by the Commission, The authors claim the compromise on the EU the July European Council had also to decide budget and recovery fund is historical in on two issues: the relationship between terms of internal solidarity, but it curtails the grants and loans and the conditions for EU’s geopolitical ambition and ability to disbursement of funds and control over their provide global public goods. EU spending on use on the other. The first question has very development and humanitarian aid is lower modest quantitative implications, while the and expenditure on security and defence has second is certainly important for the been halved compared to the Commission’s opportunity for growth it offers, if it is played 2018 proposal. If the EP fails to rectify these well by individual states and by the cuts, the MS will have to find more creative institutions of the EU. (IT - 6 p.) ways to pool national resources in the coming years. (4 p.) ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚO IΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚHΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚHΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚHΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO POLICY) ROYAL INSTITUTE) The future is green, digital and social: El Consejo Europeo extraordinario del 17 al Europe’s new growth model and its 20 de julio de 2020: mucho ruido, muchas recovery plan nueces y algunas sombras by Christina Kattami @CKattami by Mario Kölling This brief outlines inter alia the At the July European Council, political Commission’s recovery plan proposal, and agreement was reached on the Next examines its links to the aspiring green and Generation EU recovery plan and the MFF digital transition. It argues for the need of a
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SPECIAL FOCUS holistic recovery which takes into account the determinants of sovereign bond spreads in policy window brought by public and private the euro area (January - May 2020) show funding, and ensures that the eventual that: the countries’ resilience to the Covid indebtedness of the next generation is at shock depended on healthcare capacity, the least compatible with the goals of an strength of the banking sector and the fiscal economy and society of the future. (18 p.) outlook; during the crisis, ECB speeches were a game changer; coordination by the NOTRE EUROPE / INSTITUT JACQUES European Council also helped to reduce the DELORS spreads. (25 p.)
Plan de relance européen: place aux EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK obligations vertes et sociales The ESM pandemic crisis support by Jean-François Pons by Alice Zoppé and Cristina Dias The EC proposed a € 750 billion plan in May to revive the European economy and support This paper provides a summary analysis of the countries most affected by the pandemic. the European stability mechanism pandemic These € 750 billion will be borrowed on the crisis support instrument agreed by the financial market. The author suggests that Eurogroup. This instrument allows the ESM the Commission issues a significant portion to provide financial assistance to euro area of this debt under form of "green bonds" for an amount that could reach € 100 billion over MS, to be used for recovering costs related 5 years and another in "social obligations" for to direct and indirect healthcare, cure and a potential amount of € 50 billion over 5 prevention due to the Covid-19 crisis. (5 p.) years. (FR - 4 p.) ÖSTERREICHISCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR CLINGENDAEL - NETHERLANDS EUROPAPOLITIK (AUSTRIAN SOCIETY INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL FOR EUROPEAN POLITICS) RELATIONS Die Corona-Krise – Ein Stresstest für den The European Commission on the brink of a Euro green recovery. Will it be able to deliver? by Thomas Leoni and Atanas Pekanov @atanaspekanov by Paul Hofhuis The corona crisis could become a turning According to the report, greening the huge point in the European integration process. corona recovery investments and the revised The economic constraints within the euro MFF is marketed as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. The EC is keeping its Green area and the associated political tensions are Deal ideas at the heart of its Next Generation not the only, but the greatest challenge in this package, but meanwhile the recovery context. This brief traces the most relevant measures of individual MS are aimed mostly findings from the first two decades of euro at ensuring the jobs and businesses of the history and attempts to highlight the grey economy. This brief analyses the economic policy challenges facing the euro effectiveness of key steering instruments available to the Commission and explores area and the dangers arising from them how their effectiveness is influenced by the against the background of the current crisis. political context of the European Council. (DE - 13 p.) (8 p.) ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH CENTRE D’ÉTUDES PROSPECTIVES ET INSTITUTE (ESRI) D'INFORMATIONS INTERNATIONALES (CEPII) Debt sharing after Covid-19 : how the direct involvement of EU institutions could impact Covid 19: a new challenge for the EMU the recovery path of a member state by Anne-Laure Delatte @aldelatte and Alexis Guillaume by Kieran McQuinn and Petros Varthalitis @p_varthalitis
The pandemic triggered portfolio rebalancing The authors are assessing the role European in the euro area implying a divergence of institutions can play in mitigating the sovereign risk premia in the first phase of the crisis eventually followed by a narrowing of negative economic and fiscal effects of the the spreads. The estimates on the crisis for a particular member state by
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SPECIAL FOCUS participating directly in the sovereign debt EUROPEAN TRADE UNION INSTITUTE management of that country. The results indicate that the direct involvement of EU Mitigating the Covid-19 effect: emergency institutions via sovereign bonds purchases economic policy-making in Central Europe increases the efficiency of the extraordinary by Ana Podvršič, Joachim Becker, Dóra Piroska et al. fiscal stimulus packages undertaken by member states. (29 p.) This paper analyses the economic policy- making in the first phase of the epidemic in Austria, Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia and BRUEGEL Slovenia, whose economic structure is characterized by strong export orientation. The financial fragility of European The focus is on the participatory character of households in the time of Covid-19 the governments’ Covid-19 packages, on by Maria Demertzis @mariademertzis, Marta their design, and targets. (50 p.) Domínguez-Jiménez @MartaDomnguezJ1 and Annamaria Lusardi @A_Lusardi EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
In the wake of Covid-19, the authors ask how Tracking key coronavirus restrictions on households in the EU (including the UK) movement and social life in the EU member were well-prepared to handle an unexpected states expense. They found that one in three EU by Costica Dumbrava households is unable to meet an unexpected shock during regular times, let alone during All the EU MS adopted emergency measures a pandemic. Covid-19-related support against the spread of the coronavirus. These measures put in place across the EU are measures restricted a number of intended to provide economic help to those fundamental freedoms, including movement households where members have lost jobs across and within national borders, access to or face a severe reduction in income. (16 p.) education, freedom of association and, more broadly, freedom to engage in social and economic activities. This briefing presents an EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK overview of 10 key measures taken by the Towards a more resilient Europe post- MS in response to the pandemic. (12 p.) coronavirus: an initial mapping of structural risks facing the EU KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND by Franck Debié (ed.) TRADE)
The current coronavirus crisis emphasises Force majeure clauses during Covid–19 and the need for the EU to devote more effort to their implications anticipatory governance, notably through analysis of medium- and long-term global by Mariah Rossi trends, structured contingency planning and the stress-testing of existing and future One issue that poses a common challenge policies. This paper offers an initial ‘mapping’ for many scholars is Force majeure clauses of some of the potential structural risks which in contracts and their applicability during this crisis. Due to the “factspecific” nature of could confront Europe over the coming Force majeure clauses, Covid–19 cannot be decade and offers a closer look at some of unilaterally applied to all contracts. The the more immediate risks to be considered. economic impact of stalled and cancelled (100 p.) international and domestic business contracts is staggering, and governments have to decide whether they will opt to legislate or have parties litigate in response to the virus. (10 p.)
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EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK OPEN SOCIETY FOUNDATIONS
EU tourism sector during the coronavirus Covid-19, agri-food systems, and migrant crisis labour: the situation in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden by Maria Niestadt by Letizia Palumbo @letizia_palumbo and Alessandra Tourism in the EU is one of the sectors Corrado (eds) hardest hit by the coronavirus crisis. The EU has acted to support the tourism sector, Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 whether by temporarily changing EU rules, pandemic, a rise in the demand for essential helping to interpret current rules or by goods has meant that workers in core providing much-needed financial support. In sectors, such as agri-food, have been May, the Commission adopted a recognised as fundamental in the functioning comprehensive package of non-legislative of EU countries. By immobilising thousands measures for the tourism and transport of foreign seasonal workers from EU and sector. (8 p.) non-EU countries, border and mobility restrictions have caused labour shortages and food production losses in many EU REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO countries. (28 p.) ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Por una pausa temporal vinculada al Covid- 19 en la automatización FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES by Andrés Ortega @andresortegak and Federico Steinberg @SteinbergF Opening doors to labour immigration
The response to the pandemic has led to a by Lisa Pelling @lisa_pelling sudden, deep and general economic and According to the paper, it is not just social crisis. In view of rising unemployment, immigration of the ‘global talent’ that is deglobalisation and growing interest in needed to staff intensive care units, or the repatriating activities, the authors suggest to researchers needed to recruit in the hope slow down the introduction of technologies they will end the pandemic with a vaccine – that replace human employment, not those but also of the indispensable migrant that improve it. This should be done through agricultural workers. The idea was to create agreements at national and international an employer-driven system that would be level. (ES - 9 p.) able to respond flexibly to ever-changing needs on the labour market, while protecting ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH the rights of migrant workers. (24 p.) INSTITUTE (ESRI)
The implications of the Covid-19 pandemic REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO for policy in relation to children and young ROYAL INSTITUTE) people: a research review Ciberlecciones aprendidas del Covid-19 by Merike Darmody, Emer Smyth and Helen Russell by Javier Alonso Lecuit This report presents a critical analysis of Irish and international research involving children The paper shows that Covid-19 has tested and young people before and during the the resilience of critical infrastructure and pandemic period as a basis for discussing communication networks and systems in the implications for policy development. The cyberspace. Its effects have been different study focuses on four main domains: family from the incidents and attacks for which and peer relationships; formal and informal those responsible for cybersecurity are learning; physical and mental health and preparing; hence the usefulness of its wellbeing; and transitions to further/higher analysis. (ES - 22 p.) education, training and the youth labour market. (114 p.)
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LSE IDEAS TERRA NOVA
Technology in conflict: how Covid-19 The first thirty days. Comparative lessons contact tracing apps can exacerbate violent from the Covid pandemic conflicts by Paul-André Rosental by Jennifer Easterday @jeasterday This paper compares the effectiveness of The author explores how a human security national responses to the Covid-19 epidemic in approach to Covid-19 tech tools would 24 countries, covering Western and Central prompt tech companies, governments, and Europe, North America, Russia, Turkey, South other actors to work with communities in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. It recalculates ways that enhance their agency in the face national mortality rates and compares them with of the pandemic to both reduce the risk of some major public health parameters. The goal exacerbating conflict while maximizing the is to observe the extent to which the combination benefits of technology. (12 p.) of structural (proactive) health efforts and immediate (reactive) measures tempered the severity of the scourge. (25 p.) INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS Conséquences et leçons d'un virus In sickness and in health: European by Thierry de Montbrial @TdeMontbrial cooperation during the coronavirus crisis
Europeans took their summer vacation at a by Pawel Zerka @PawelZerka time when the Covid pandemic seemed to be receding, despite the clusters that are still The paper analyses the impact of the appearing. After so many imprudent coronavirus crisis on cooperation patterns speeches, nobody dares to make too precise among governments of the 27 EU MS, and forecasts. In any case, any confirmed lull on the roles that policy professionals across lends itself to broader reflections both on the the continent expect EU institutions and consequences of the disaster and on the national capitals to play in such a situation. dysfunctions that allowed it. (4 p.) The crisis might have strengthened some bonds, but it has also consolidated or EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE harmed the image of some leaders. (32 p.)
From reaction to action: how the EU can CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY step up its role in global pandemics STUDIES by Claire Dhéret and Simona Guagliardo Compulsory licensing and access to future Covid-19 vaccines The authors outline a twofold strategy to foster ‘EU health sovereignty’ and reinforce by Weinian Hu the EU’s international leadership in health: foster EU health crisis management The author asks if developing countries will capabilities, prepare a European stockpile of have access to affordable Covid-19 strategic medical products and equipment, vaccines, once available. Would an EU and make better use of the Single Market in member state be eligible to import generic the area of health; and strengthen the versions of a patented vaccine if it has resilience of national health systems and insufficient or no manufacturing capacity? encourage the creation of a common, EU- How to enable an expeditious and predicable wide evaluation framework for health care. multiple patent examination process so that (4 p.) Covid-19 vaccines could become market- ready more efficiently? (20 p.)
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EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK EUROPEAN TRADE UNION INSTITUTE
Assessment of Covid-19 surveillance case Our failure to prevent known risks: definitions and data reporting in the occupational safety and health in the European Union healthcare sector during the Covid-19 pandemic by André Peralta-Santos @andre_peralta by Paula Franklin @paulakfranklin All institutional bodies in the MS base their approaches on technical guidance by the The author recommends that hazards from European Centre for diseases and control. SARS-CoV-2 should be addressed in line Harmonisation of Covid-19 case definitions with the EU biological agents directive and by is essential to mitigate disputes about data means of a strengthened centralised quality between MS and coordinate, capacity of the EU for responding to health implement and evaluate EU policies. (7 p.) emergencies. Mitigating and preventing its impact should be done by classifying it as an occupational disease. The coronavirus crisis, FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA which is the result of the impact of the nexus APLICADA of austerity/virus/illness on society at large, should trigger a transformative change in the Un modelo robusto para la predicción care economy. (9 p.) ad‑futurum de los efectos de la epidemia del Covid‑19 HERTIE SCHOOL / JACQUES DELORS by Juan Luis Fernández-Martínez CENTRE
The prediction of both the dynamics of the Four implications of the Covid-19 pandemic Covid-19 pandemic and the needs it for the EU asylum and migration policy generates is based on the combination of two predictive models: limited growth and by Lucas Rasche @LuRasche short-term. The report discusses both models in terms of uncertainty analysis, Border closures and regional lockdowns relation to the historical series, related to Covid-19 have had a direct impact regionalization and interaction with the on the functioning of the EU’s asylum and meteorological conditions. (ES - 20 p.) migration policy. This brief shows that the virus impaired access to asylum in the EU, hampered the EU’s ability to steer a common EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK response to the crisis, and underlined the importance of migrants as “essential Lifting coronavirus restrictions: the role of workers”. It identifies lessons learned that therapeutics, testing, and contact-tracing can inform the process of making the EU’s apps asylum and migration policy Covid-19- proofed. (6 p.) by Costica Dumbrava
In the absence of vaccines and treatments WILFRIED MARTENS CENTRE FOR for Covid-19, any easing of restrictions to EUROPEAN STUDIES freedom of movement and social life needs to be accompanied by enhanced monitoring Covid-19 and the old-new politics of measures, such as expanded testing irregular migration from Libya capacity and improved contact tracing. A by Vít Novotný @vitnovotny flexible and integrated strategy and a coordinated approach across the EU are key This crisis has been spurred by a progressive to gradually lifting restrictions and to going increase in illegal border crossings from back to the (new) normal. (36 p.) Libya towards Malta and Italy. This increase is due to: a mass joblessness among Libya’s large migrant population, as a consequence of the pandemic; the conflict in the country; and a resumption of migrant smugglers
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SPECIAL FOCUS activities tolerated by the officially defence-related aspects for the EU between recognised Government of National Accord. December 2019 and June 2020. It identifies The health crisis has confirmed Libya as the key problems in four areas: security main North African country serving as a environment and implications for strategy; departure point for Europe bound irregular Common Security and Defence Policy migrants. (6 p.) (CSDP) and defence-related mechanisms, capabilities and resources; positive NOTRE EUROPE / INSTITUT JACQUES contributions that the armed forces have DELORS made to support civilian authorities at home; and how CSDP operations and missions Carnet de crise, quel nouvel agenda pour have been affected by Covid-19. (19 p.) l'Europe? by Alain Lamassoure REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE) According to the author, the incredible crisis triggered by the pandemic will have some of Covid-19: reaffirming cyber as a 21st the effects of a major international conflict: century geopolitical battleground redistribution of economic and geostrategic power, new rules of the game international, by Danny Steed @TheSteed86 the collapse of certain countries and certain regimes, new unexpected sources of As all organisations and businesses conflicts and regional tensions, or the reverted to a work from home model, cyber promotion of the “values” of all kinds of security is an even higher priority than countries who will appear to emerge as before. Although some cyber-criminal “winners”. (FR - 5 p.) activities have shifted emphasis to exploit the pandemic, the bulk of the evidence POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW suggests that the same geopolitical MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH objectives are being pursued at the INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) international level. Covid-19 has served to reaffirm the centrality of cyberspace as a Konsekwencje pandemii Covid-19 dla 21st century geopolitical battleground. stosunków międzynarodowych (7 p.) by Łukasz Kulesa @lukasz_kulesa, Sebastian Płóciennik @plocienniks, Patrycja Sasnal et al. DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN The report presents lessons learned from the COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS) pandemic in the context of international relations. It focuses on Covid-19 impact on How “democratic security” can protect main international organisations such as EU, Europe from a rising China. Ten practical UN including WHO, and on multilateralism. It steps to protect European democracy and includes also the consequences of the sovereignty from influence and interference outbreak for security, economy and climate by the CPC change. (PL - 47 p.) by Didi Kirsten Tatlow @dktatlow
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK The Communist Party of China (CPC) plans for China to achieve effective global How the Covid-19 crisis has affected dominance by 2049. According to the report, security and defence-related aspects for the the CPC is using the major global crisis EU caused by the Covid-19 pandemic to secure strategic advantage through propaganda by Christoph O. Meyer, Sophia Besch @SophiaBesch, and disinformation, assertive, sometimes Martin Bricknell @MartinBricknell et al. aggressive diplomacy, pursuing targeted investments, and offering “health This briefing examines the impact that the cooperation.” The CPC has long targeted Covid-19 crisis has had on security and European business and political elites to
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SPECIAL FOCUS build constituencies of support. Europe must increase their influence on the population. counter by building robust societies based on (DE - 8 p.) core democratic values. (12 p.) INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS ESTRATÉGICOS Guerra y epidemias: dos cabalgan juntos Covid-19, ¿elemento de reconfiguración mundial? by Amable Sarto Ferreruela by José Rafael Belisario Flores The severe impact of this pandemic is seen as an engine of change that can facilitate a The paper notes that in the context of a trade peaceful end to war and armed conflict. war between the US and China, Covid-19 However, historical experience, the real emerged as a possible catalyst in the impact and the responses to the call for a reconfiguration of the global chessboard. cessation of hostilities made by the UN The geostrategic players are taking Secretary General suggest that this will not advantage of the opportunity to change the be the case. (ES -13 p.) correlation of forces through humanitarian aid or military deployment, under the EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK justification of protecting the population. (ES - 14 p.) Impact of the pandemic on elections around the world: from safety concerns to political CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW crises MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR by Ionel Zamfir and Tessa Fardel INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)/KONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG The coronavirus has taken a heavy toll on electoral processes around the world, with Post-Covid multilateralism. How to save many elections being postponed. This humanity from hell? postponement should involve a sensible by Bartłomiej E. Nowak balancing act between the democratic imperative, enshrined in international law The crisis of multilateralism was present long and national constitutions, to hold regular before Donald Trump's rise to power and the elections, and public health requirements outbreak of Covid-19. The paper examines restricting large gatherings and minimising the repercussions of the pandemic for the close contact between people. The crisis multilateral cooperation and presents new provides a unique opportunity for electoral approaches which can be developed to save reform. (10 p.) the multilateralism and the global governance system. (31 p.) INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS KONRAD-ADENAUER STIFTUNG El Sahel en tiempos de pandemia: ¿Aún Corona haucht Gewaltakteuren weltweit peor? neues Leben ein by Pedro Sánchez Herráez by Jürgen Brandsch @JBrandsch, Caspar Schliephack @SerioSito and Marcel Dirsus @marceldirsus The Sahel has long been subject to complex dynamics (insecurity, weak states, scant Covid-19 has spread rapidly in developing economic and social development and countries. And the effects will be dramatic. population growth) that create a "perfect The Covid-19 crisis offers significant storm" situation in which terrorist groups recruiting potential, especially for violent seek to grow and expand. The Covid-19 actors - and for several reasons. Particularly pandemic adds to this by creating a health, where the state fails, violent actors provide economic, food, social and security crisis. material and immaterial support and thus The resulting instability was only predicted in
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SPECIAL FOCUS the worst-case scenarios and is tending to and provides recommendations for worsen rapidly. (ES - 23 p.) policymakers and civil society to counteract the negative impacts of Covid-19 on INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS democracy. (42 p.) ESTRATÉGICOS FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH Cisnes negros: Ébola y Covid-19 EBERT FOUNDATION) Black swans: Ebola and Covid-19 Covid-19 and the Syrian regime: an by Edgar Jiménez García opportunity to tighten its authoritarian control over society The Covid-19 pandemic has important similarities to the Ebola epidemic that struck by Joseph Daher West Africa between 2013 and 2016. The article analyses the common points of both, The Syrian regime has handled the Covid-19 highlighting their sudden appearance, which pandemic with a combination of opacity and are "carers' diseases" and are tackled with repression. As Covid-19 has deepened insufficient means. Systemic strengthening Syria’s socioeconomic crisis, Damascus’ measures are proposed which concern both attempts to dominate society have not quite the national health capacities of each country succeeded. Criticism of the central and the international structure and laws; authorities and their policies is being publicly highlighting the role of the WHO and the expressed, even in areas under the regime’s international health regulations. (ES - 18 p./ control. (10 p.) EN - 17 p.) INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL FUNDACIÓN ALTERNATIVAS (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY) Informe Iberoamérica 2020: América Latina ante la protesta y la pandemia Mask wars: China's exports of medical goods in times of Covid-19 by Erika Rodríguez Pinzón @emaropi (ed.) by Andreas Fuchs, Lennart Kaplan, Krisztina Kis-Katos The year 2020 will be a turning point in the et al. history of Latin America. The current Covid- 19 crisis will hit the political and economic This article studies the economic and systems of all nations but will be cushioned political factors that are associated with in a different way. Latin America is facing this China's exports of medical equipment during in a critical situation: economic stagnation, the first two months of the pandemic. problems of drug trafficking, public safety, Findings imply that, to secure access to poverty, migratory crises and unprecedented medical equipment in crises, countries are social protests that show the limits of well advised to either diversify their sources governability of a region immersed in a cycle or to develop closer relations with Beijing and of political instability. (ES - 137 p.) China's provinces. (41 p.)
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL UNITED STATES ASSISTANCE Masks off: Chinese coronavirus assistance Global democracy and Covid-19: upgrading in Europe international support by Etienne Soula @EtienneSoula, Franziska Luettge, Melissa Ladner et al. by Richard Youngs @YoungsRichard and Elene Panchulidze @ElePanchulidze This analysis points out that Chinese assistance stretched well beyond the high- This report highlights how some profile cases of hard-hit Italy and Spain to governments are using the public health countries large and small. The donations by crisis to further curtail democratic activities, Chinese authorities and companies
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SPECIAL FOCUS coincided with China’s national and INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY economic interests. Chinese donations were RESEARCH accompanied by a sustained communications and diplomatic push aimed Rescue and recovery, Covid-19, jobs and at a global audience. (12 p.) income security
by Clare McNeil @claremcneil1, Carsten Jung POLICY NETWORK @carsjung and Dean Hochlaf @Dhochlaf
Heading for disaster : how Britain's Brexit In the first ‘stabilisation and rescue' phase of collision course with the European Union the crisis, governments introduced a range of will exacerbate the Covid crisis emergency measures to preserve jobs and by Roger Liddle support incomes. In the next phase of the crisis, the job of governments is to support the Labour peer Roger Liddle argues that the UK economic recovery. In the case of the labour faces huge economic risks in piling on top of market, it must be done by stimulating the the grave Covid-19 emergency with the economy through large-scale public negative impacts of ‘no deal’, or a very investment to support the creation of new jobs ‘barebones’ trade deal, which is probably and help for some workers to switch to new where Brexit is heading. Equally, the sectors. (30 p.) success is imperilled of Britain’s future relationship with the European friends and EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK allies beyond Brexit. (31 p.) States of emergency in response to the coronavirus crisis: situation in certain EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN member stats RELATIONS by Zuzana Alexandre, Micaela Del Monte, Gianna Eckert, The Brexit parenthesis: three ways the et al. pandemic is changing UK politics With the virulence of the coronavirus by Mark Leonard pandemic gradually diminishing, and in the light of the restrictive measures adopted by The paper argues that Covid-19 has the MS, attention remains on the way chosen by potential to replace the nationalism of Brexit the various states to respond to the crisis. with a politics of pragmatic international This briefing analyses the legislation of cooperation abroad and tackling structural Cyprus, Czechia, Greece, Ireland, Lithuania inequalities at home. While much of the pain and Slovakia. (12 p.) of the looming recession still lies in the future, the crisis of 2020 could, paradoxically, lead to normal politics in abnormal times. (28 p.) CLINGENDAEL – NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES Streamlining the value chain in times of Covid-19 Cities against the pandemic by Iván Tosics by Jos Meester, Loïc Bisson @loicbisson and Brigitte Dekker
In times of major crises, strong and The paper presents the key risks that the coordinated interventions are needed at all impact of Covid-19 on global value chains government levels. This paper gives poses to the Dutch economy and its foreign concrete examples of the vital role local policy objectives. It draws on insights from governments play in the fight against the three case studies concerning developing pandemic. Municipalities can play a crucial economies in Latin America, Indonesia and role in ensuring that all members of the Sahel, showing that the consequences of the pandemic are more severe in less well-off community are taken care of when the states. (6 p.) economy is at great risk of collapse. (12 p.)
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ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH perception of the European integration in the INSTITUTE (ESRI) future. (7 p.)
Managing mass unemployment flows during the Covid-19 pandemic ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE by Seamus McGuinness @seamusmcguinnes and Elish Kelly Public understanding and perceptions of the Covid-19 test-and-trace system As a consequence of the Covid-19 health pandemic, Ireland’s standard seasonally by Shane Timmons @_shanetimmons, Martina adjusted unemployment rate went from 4.8% Barjaková, Deirdre Robertson @Deirdre_AR et al. in February 2020 to an estimated peak of 28.2% in April when those in receipt of the The aim of this study is to measure pandemic unemployment payment are understanding and perceptions of the Covid- included. Due to Covid, Ireland’s public 19 test-and-trace system among a employment services are likely facing representative sample of adults in Ireland. substantial constraints arising from the rapid Almost half of people do not know that calling increase in jobseeker claimants qualifying their GP to discuss symptoms of Covid-19 is for, and/or seeking, their employment free, and over one third think they could be supports. (35 p.) charged for a test. These wrongly perceived costs could deter or delay people from arranging a test if they experience ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH symptoms. (40 p.) INSTITUTE (ESRI)
The environmental and economic impacts ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚO IΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚHΣ ΚΑΙ of the Covid-19 crisis on the Irish economy : ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚHΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚHΣ (HELLENIC an application of the I3E model FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY) by Kelly de Bruin, Eoin Monaghan and Aykut Mert Yakut The recovery plan as a major step towards This report assesses the economic and fiscal union: the Multiannual Financial environmental impacts of the Covid-19 crisis Framework 2021-2027 after the on the Irish economy, by applying the Ireland Commission’s proposals environment, energy and economy (I3E) model. I3E allows us to quantify the by Achilleas Mitsos consequences of the restrictions on various economic agents in a consistent and This report states that with the proposed comprehensive manner. (48 p.) recovery plan, for the first time the EU is moving away from the principle of net fiscal benefit or loss of each MS. If the projected INSTITUT PRO EVROPSKOU POLITIKU distribution of the resources of the recovery EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM INSTITUTE FOR and resilience facility is calculated as a EUROPEAN POLICY) percentage of the GDP of each country, Greece is the country that is expected to Czech perception of EU’s reaction to Covid- receive the largest percentage of GDP. (EL - 19 18 p.) by Vít Havelka @Havelka_Vit POLICY NETWORK This paper discusses the past and current development of the pandemic in the Czech Beds or bonds? Conditional solidarity in the Republic as well as a first interpretations of coronavirus crisis how the Czech attitudes towards the EU by Sebastian Koos and Dirk Leuffen might have changed. The article is based on a representative public opinion survey This report debates to what extent are conducted in May. The author finds Europeans willing to help each other, and necessary to start discussing what impact what kind of help are they willing to provide? the Covid-19 pandemic might have on the A recent survey of the German residential
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SPECIAL FOCUS population offers a mixed picture: whereas and the contrast between the results of the people strongly support medical solidarity, two states in which the country was their willingness to support financial partitioned. (ES - 11 p.) redistribution is limited. (10 p.) FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO APLICADA ROYAL INSTITUTE) Informe de la Comisión sectorial segunda ¿Ha sido un fracaso la gestión española del del grupo mixto de trabajo Covid-19: Covid-19? Errores, lecciones y turismo, comercio y economía circular recomendaciones by José Luis Bonet and Anna Balletbó (eds) by Miguel Otero-Iglesias @miotei, Ignacio Molina @_ignaciomolina and José Pablo Martínez This report highlights the high weight of @jpmromera tourism and trade in the Spanish economy and the strong negative impact that the Spain has been one of the countries with the health crisis is having on these sectors. It greatest impact of the Covid-19 during the goes on to propose a number of measures first half of 2020. The possible explanatory aimed at promoting their recovery. (ES - factors are multiple and complex, pointing to 27 p.) human geography, demography and cultural habits, but also to failures in the public health system. This analysis aims also to help both manage de-escalation and prevent further outbreaks. (ES - 18 p.)
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
¿Recuperación o metamorfosis? Un plan de transformación económica para España by Federico Steinberg @SteinbergF, Miguel Otero Iglesias @miotei and Enrique Feás @EnriqueFeas
The Covid-19 pandemic is going to have an even greater global economic impact than the Great Recession and Spain will be particularly affected. Before the crisis, the need for a change in the Spanish production model towards a greener, more digital and more sustainable economy was already apparent. The report outlines a strategy for Spain to emerge from this crisis. (ES -100 p.)
FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA
Las políticas de reconstrucción hoy y en el pasado: los casos de Alemania y España comparados by Gabriel Tortella
This paper draws some lessons for post- Covid Spain from the experience of German reconstruction after the Second World War
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EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Linking the levels of governance in the EU
by Klemen Žumer @klemenzum and Yann-Sven Rittelmeyer @YSRittelmeyer
The coronavirus crisis has further underlined the need for a more cohesive European Union. This paper focuses on the rationale for, and form of, an EU strategy to better connect the different levels of the multilevel
system of governance in Europe. It assesses SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS the consequences of the current crisis for the AND INSTITUTIONS links between EU governance levels. It highlights the historic opportunity provided EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK by the forthcoming Conference on the Future of Europe to develop and establish a more Priority dossiers under the German EU permanent system to link the levels of our Council Presidency Union. (12 p.) by Lucienne Attard FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH Germany took the helm of the EU Council EBERT FOUNDATION)/ INSTITUT FUR Presidency on 1 July 2020, starting the trio EUROPAISCHE POLITIK Presidency composed of Germany, Portugal and Slovenia. The Trio has adopted a Make European elections more meaningful : how to reinforce parliamentary democracy Declaration outlining their main areas of at the EU level focus, including democracy, human rights and the rule of law, as well as an by Manuel Müller @foederalist economically strong EU based on growth and jobs and the social dimension. It is to be The paper argues that in order to reinforce noted that the Trio is working on a revised European parliamentary democracy, it is declaration to reflect the changed situation in necessary to make European elections more Europe due to the coronavirus pandemic. consequential and to increase the scope of (5 p.) majoritarian decision-making in the EU. This implies short and longterm reforms regarding the European electoral system, the EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK parliamentarisation of the EC, and a more transparent and efficient legislative Adjusted European Commission work procedure. (8 p.) programme 2020 by Leda Bargiotti, Ivana Kiendl Kristo and Stefano EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK Vettorazzi Ten opportunities for Europe post- The EC presented its work programme for coronavirus: exploring potential for 2020 in January. The Covid-19 pandemic progress in EU policy-making forced the Commission to focus its efforts on the immediate crisis management and to by Etienne Bassot @EtienneBassot adjust its original work programme. This briefing provides an overview and analysis of This analysis looks at ten areas which may the main changes between the original and offer potential for progress, including working the adjusted programme. (14 p.) more closely together on health policy, using climate action to promote a sustainable recovery, re-thinking the world of work, future-proofing education, harnessing e- commerce and championing European values and multilateralism. (28 p.)
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CHATHAM HOUSE - THE ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
The future of the E3: post-Brexit cooperation between the UK, France and Germany by Alice Billon-Galland @AliceBillon, Thomas Raines and Richard G. Whitman @RGWhitman
This paper explores the origins of the E3 (European/EU 3) format of diplomatic coordination between France, Germany and the UK, and its possible future development. It addresses the potential role of the E3 over the coming decade and how the UK can make the best use of this format. (18 p.)
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COMPETITIVENESS (INTERNAL MARKET, INDUSTRY, RESEARCH AND SPACE)
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)
Catching up in a time of constraints: industrial policy under World Trade Organization rules, free trade agreements and bilateral investment agreements
by Petra Dünhaupt and Hansjörg Herr
SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES The aim of this study is to explore the AGRICULTURE AND FISHERIES possibilities of an active industrial policy in today’s environment of free trade and OPEN SOCIETY FOUNDATIONS investment agreements. It evaluates how beneficial industrial policies can perform in a Are agri-food workers only exploited in world increasingly linked by binding free Southern Europe? Case studies on migrant trade agreements. It seeks to bridge the labor in Germany, Netherlands, and Sweden divide between the politically desirable industrial policy and what is legally possible by Letizia Palumbo @letizia_palumbo and Alessandra under binding treaties. (48 p.) Corrado (eds)
This publication provides recommendations ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL on how the EU and national governments AFFAIRS can act to make Europe’s agri-food system more sustainable, benefiting farmers, EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK consumers, workers, and the environment. (45 p.) Economic dialogue and exchange of views with the President of the Council (ECOFIN)
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT by Cristina Dias, Alice Zoppé, Rebecca Segall et al. POLICY MANAGEMENT This briefing provides an overview of the The food systems approach in practice. A German Presidency priorities in Ecofin guide for sustainable transformation matters, including the establishment of the new and temporary EU recovery plan, and by Koen Dekeyser @KoDekeyser, Francesco Rampa the Council’s work relating to the @F_Rampa, Cecilia D’Alessandro et al. implementation of the European Semester for economic coordination. (18 p.) Tackling the myriad sustainability challenges related to food requires systemic EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK interventions that improve sustainability at local, national, and international level. The How to make the European Semester more authors develop an iterative, step-based effective and legitimate? sustainable food system approach that helps navigate complexity. This combines four by Päivi Leino-Sandberg and Fernando Losada Fraga components: food system, sustainability, political economy analyses, and the This paper assesses the successes and development of transformation pathways to shortcomings of the European Semester with advance food system sustainability. (20 p.) a focus on legitimacy, effectiveness and ownership. It argues that in order to address these problems, the framework should be redesigned from a new starting point, which
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builds on existing divisions of competence HERTIE SCHOOL / JACQUES DELORS and clear decision making structures. (35 p.) CENTRE
How does differentiate integration work in SWEDISH INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN the financial sector? Spotlight on banking POLICY STUDIES (SIEPS) union
State interests and bargaining power in the by Sebastian Mack @SebastianMack_ reform of the eurozone Five years after the entry into force of the by Lisa Dellmuth, Magnus Lundgren banking union, this paper assesses its @MagnusLLundgren and Jonas Tallberg effectiveness as a form of differentiated @JonasTallberg integration. This study presents the legal and organisational dimensions of the banking The authors analyse two themes of the union and describes its accountability dynamics behind the eurozone reforms from mechanisms and procedures. At the heart is 2010 to 2015: the formation of national the question of whether the creation of the interests and the bargaining at the EU level. banking union has been effective in promoting integration among its members The study provides valuable lessons for the while avoiding distortions in the Single present initiatives centred on economic Market. (23 p.) recovery during and after the corona pandemic. (96 p.) NOTRE EUROPE / INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
CENTER FOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC European debt mutualisation: finding a RESEARCH (CASE) legitimate balance between solidarity and responsibility mechanisms Increasing the international role of the euro: a long way to go by Andreas Eisl and Mattia Tomay by Marek Dąbrowski This paper analyses the solidarity- responsibility arrangements of various The author notes that increasing the proposals and realized forms of European attractiveness of the euro outside the euro debt mutualisation made over the last area requires, among others, a proactive role decades to evaluate their shortcomings and for the European Central Bank and potential in finding a legitimate balance of completing the banking union and capital solidarity and responsibility mechanisms for market union. (38 p.) all EU MS. (20 p.)
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK Benefits and drawbacks of an “expenditure Economic and monetary union rule”, as well as of a "golden rule", in the EU fiscal framework by Angelos Delivorias @AngeDelivorias by Daniel Gros @DanielGrosCEPS and Marvin Jahn The EMU represents a very important step in the process of European economic Given the current crisis, all fiscal rules have integration. The recent sovereign debt crisis been suspended. When the economy highlighted its incomplete design and some recovers, both expenditure and structural inherent instabilities. A series of measures balance rules will be more difficult to apply as were therefore taken to deepen the EMU. the level and growth of potential output will The coronavirus pandemic has shown the become more uncertain. The economic urgency of many of them; recently submitted argument for a golden rule is that debt can proposals could lead to a noteworthy be used to finance the creation of public evolution in the architecture of the EMU. (12 capital. But this implies that any golden rule p.) should only exempt net investment, which is much lower than the gross investment. (41 p.)
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EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY The role of fiscal rules in relation with the (ECIPE) green economy Unintended and undesired consequences: by Atanas Pekanov @atanaspekanov and Margit the impact of OECD pillar I and II proposals Schratzenstaller @MargitSchratz on small open economies
This study argues that to achieve the by Matthias Bauer necessary green transition in the EU, additional public investment by MS will need Corporate tax laws vary significantly to be mobilised throughout the next decade. between different jurisdictions. Over the past The paper discusses three approaches for a reform of the fiscal rules: an exemption four decades, governments globally clause for green public investment; the competed for business activity by lowering implementation of a green golden rule; a statutory and effective corporate tax rates. country-specific benchmark share of Many governments provide special tax government expenditures dedicated to green incentives for businesses to invest and public investment recommended by the expand employment. Special economic Commission. (50 p.) zones often grant full corporate tax exemptions to stimulate commercial EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK development. (52 p.) The role of fiscal rules in relation with the green economy - A new start after the EDUCATION / YOUTH / CULTURE outbreak / SPORT by Paul van den Noord EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK According to this study, the fiscal framework in principle provides sufficient flexibility to Creative Europe programme 2021-2027 accommodate the call on government by Magdalena Pasikowska-Schnass budgets from the EGD - even in the very challenging fiscal landscape that is currently Creative Europe programme continues to be unfolding. The study observes that for this to a stand-alone programme with an increased hold in practice, a number of conditions must budget. The proposed framework for cultural be met, including a strong design of policies, policy highlights not only the economic a careful assessment of their budgetary dimension but also the role of culture in impact and the integration of the relevant social cohesion and its relation to creative governance processes. (49 p.) and artistic freedom and diversity, and freedom and plurality of media. Parliament E3G and Council have agreed positions on the proposal, and trilogue negotiations started in The European Investment Bank: becoming autumn 2019. (12 p.) the EU climate bank by Iskander Erzini Vernoit, Sonia Dunlop BARCELONA CENTRE FOR @soniakdunlop, James Hawkins et al. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
At a time of converging economic, health, Las relaciones culturales internacionales de climate and environmental crises, the EU la UE y la necesidad de incorporar a las has committed to strong public investment to ciudades transform its economy. The EIB is in the process of setting out its "roadmap” for by Hannah Abdullah @hannahabdull and Jeremie Molho becoming the EU climate bank. The EU’s goal is to deliver climate neutrality and According to the paper, the EU must rethink climate resilience, while seeking its strategy for international cultural relations transformative change abroad, with the aim from a multi-level perspective and exploit the of achieving a fair and prosperous society for potential of cities. The exponential growth of its citizens. (59 p.) transnational networks of cities
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demonstrates the emergence of cities as key trends, the authors also provide global political actors. (ES - 6 p.) recommendations for policy makers and stakeholders on improving the affordability of housing. (63 p.) EMPLOYMENT / SOCIAL POLICY / HEALTH AND CONSUMER EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK AFFAIRS EU public health policy WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA by Gianluca Quaglio INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES) This paper explains the origins and current role of public health policy at EU level, details Decoupling of labour productivity growth how the Union has responded to the 2020 from median wage growth in Central and coronavirus pandemic to date, and analyses Eastern Europe the Commission’s proposal for a flagship policy initiative, the EU4Health programme. by Joris Schröder It explores a range of possible further initiatives that could be taken to strengthen This study provides an overview of the extent healthcare system across Europe. (12 p.) and underlying factors of wage-productivity decoupling with a focus on the EU-CEE11 countries. (46 p.) EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK The post-2020 European disability strategy EUROPEAN TRADE UNION INSTITUTE by Lisa Waddington and Andrea Broderick Non-financial reporting: how can it be a resource for workers? This study analyses the European disability strategy (EDS) 2010-2020 and its by Anna Kaliga and Alexander Oberdieck implementation, achievements and shortcomings. The study makes Non-financial reporting is the provision by recommendations in respect of the post- companies of information regarding their 2020 EDS. (156 p.) policies that have an impact on workers, the environment and society. EU requirements for such reporting are based on the directive ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES on the disclosure of non-financial and diversity information by certain large BRUEGEL undertakings and groups. The authors argue that this directive falls short of key demands Greening the recovery by greening the made by European trade unions. fiscal consolidation Nevertheless, current reporting requirements by Ben McWilliams @McwilliamsBen, Simone present an important opportunity for workers’ Tagliapietra @Tagliapietra_S and Georg Zachmann representatives and trade unions. (5 p.) @GeorgZachmann
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK Greening the recovery is a significant policy challenge. According to the paper, the EU Policies to ensure access to affordable needs a significant increase in carbon prices housing after 2021, to be engineered through revisions of the emission trading system and by Dovydas Caturianas, Piotr Lewandowski, Jakub Sokołowski et al. the energy taxation directive. Such reforms could provide annual additional revenues This study analyses the current situation and €90 billion. This could make a major key challenges with regard to housing contribution to post-Covid-19 fiscal affordability in the EU, as well as policies to consolidation requirements, which might be ensure access to affordable housing at in the order of one percent of GDP per year. national and EU levels. After assessing the (8 p.)
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WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL Climate change and climate action ECONOMIC STUDIES) by Gregor Erbach Getting serious about the European green The coronavirus crisis presents challenges deal with a carbon border tax as well as opportunities for policies to by Roman Stöllinger address the issue of climate change. The postponement of the COP26 climate change In December 2019 the Commission conference slows down international climate announced the European Green Deal action, but also offers the opportunity for the (EGD), which aims to turn the EU into a Parties to develop ambitious long-term climate-neutral, circular economy. Although strategies in the aftermath of the coronavirus it is as yet not very specific in many areas, crisis. (11 p.) the EGD sends the right signal and contains several promising elements. (28 p.) GENERAL AFFAIRS
ÖSTERREICHISCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN EUROPAPOLITIK (AUSTRIAN SOCIETY What should we make of the just transition FOR EUROPEAN POLITICS) mechanism put forward by the European Commission? Overcoming the net position thinking in EU member states by Olivier Marty by Julia Bachtrögler-Unger @JBachtroegler, Mario The paper explains the just transition Holzner @MarioHolzner, Veronika Kubeková et al. mechanism, an integral part of the EGD, aiming to reconcile the Union's exceptional Focusing primarily on the question of net climate ambition with social justice. It puts contributions to the EU budget instead of the the grounds for scepticism into perspective question of the ideal size and structure of an and stresses that the envisaged mechanism EU budget is a major obstacle to the represents a significant step forward in the negotiations for the next MFF of the EU. The European climate strategy. (10 p.) paper suggests a quick solution that helps to overcome the net position thinking prevalent in many EU MS is desirable, as the current crisis CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY is evolving rapidly and common action via STUDIES European public goods could offer relief. (7 p.)
Biomass and climate neutrality EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK by Mihnea Catuti, Milan Elkerbout, Monica Alessi et al. How EU funds tackle economic divide in the The use of sustainable biomass will play a European Union considerable role in meeting the 2030 target by Robert Stehrer, Roman Stöllinger, Gabor Hunya, et al. to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the objective of climate neutrality by 2050 When assessing the benefits MS receive in the EGD. Biomass can fulfil a plethora of from the EU budget, they primarily focus on purposes, as a source of renewable energy their individual net positions. This ‘juste and material substitution and as a carbon retour’ thinking is associated with several sink. This paper analyses some of the limitations and problems and neglects the barriers that may restrict its availability and benefits accruing to MS beyond the pure usage. (39 p.) financial streams related to the EU budget. The net position view could be complemented by additional indicators providing a more comprehensive picture of the overall benefits resulting for MS from the EU membership and budget. (104 p.)
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EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA Pilot projects and preparatory actions in the INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL EU budget 2014-2019 ECONOMIC STUDIES) by Roderick Ackermann, Roland Blomeyer, José Papi et al. The effects of the EU cohesion policy on regional economic growth: using structural This study performs a “reality check” of pilot equation modelling for impact assessment projects and preparatory actions (PPPAs) included in the EU budget over 2014-2019 by Ambre Maucorps, Stefan Jestl and Roman Römisch and assesses their use as a strategic political tool. It covers 324 PPPAs with an aggregate This paper analyses the effects of the EU value of EUR 337 million to date. The study cohesion policy on the economic growth of identifies a series of areas for improvement. 276 European NUTS-2 regions i.e. (120 p.) basic regions for the application of regional policies between 2008 and 2016. (34 p.) WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA ECONOMIC STUDIES) INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL On the economic effects of a reallocation of ECONOMIC STUDIES) EU cohesion policy expenditures Estimating demand spillovers of EU by Stefan Jestl and Roman Römisch cohesion policy using European regional input-output tables This paper analyses the economic effects of a reallocation of cohesion policy by Roman Römisch expenditures across EU countries. The This paper develops a simple method to authors evaluate a shift from stronger MS to consistently break down world input-output less-developed EU economies and vice tables to regional input-output tables. They versa. (36 p.) are used to estimate cohesion policy- induced demand spillovers in the EU, EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK covering the years 2007-2018. (31 p.)
European territorial cooperation (Interreg) MTA KÖZGAZDASÁG- ÉS REGIONÁLIS 2021-2027 TUDOMÁNYI KUTATÓKÖZPONT - by Christiaan Van Lierop VILÁGGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC AND REGIONAL STUDIES HAS In 2018, the EC adopted several proposals - INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMICS) defining the architecture of EU cohesion The three archetype European historic policy for the post-2020 programming period. development models and their impact in The package includes a proposal for the new East-Central Europe generation of European territorial cooperation programmes, referred to as by Miklós Szanyi 'Interreg', which would bring significant changes to the current Interreg architecture The study provides evidence on the historic and the incorporation of cooperation with determination of the features of the rent- countries other than EU MS. (11 p.) based ECE development model. The rent- based economy’s stability has been supported by external political and economic assistance. The social tensions of the political and economic backlashes have been covered by politically inflated regional conflicts, mainly ethnic rivalry. (28 p.)
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JUSTICE AND HOME AFFAIRS regulatory and other measures to counter them. (117 p.) EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK Artificial intelligence and law enforcement - impact on fundamental rights State of play of existing instruments for combating impunity for international crimes by Gloria González Fuster @FusterGloria by Olympia Bekou This study examines the impact on fundamental rights of artificial intelligence in The EU and its MS have been at the forefront the field of law enforcement and criminal of the fight against impunity for core justice, from an EU perspective. It presents international crimes, collectively providing the applicable legal framework (notably in political, technical and financial assistance to relation to data protection), and analyses international, regional and domestic major trends and key policy discussions. The accountability efforts. Focusing on the study also considers developments following current EU framework on accountability and the Covid-19 outbreak. It argues that the six country situations (Rwanda, Colombia, seriousness and scale of challenges may Venezuela, Myanmar, Syria and Iraq), this require intervention at EU level. (92 p.) study offers recommendations to guide future EU policy. (116 p.) EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK HERTIE SCHOOL / JACQUES DELORS Hate speech and hate crime in the EU and CENTRE the evaluation of online content regulation approaches Europe to the rescEU: the missing piece in the EU migration management is civil by Judit Bayer @JuditBayer and Petra Bárd protection @BardPetra by Marie Walter-Franke @MWalterFranke The study argues that hate speech and hate crimes poison societies by threatening Civil protection is a policy on the rise by individual rights, human dignity and equality, which the EU provides tangible solidarity in reinforcing tensions between social groups, crisis situations. After weighing the potential disturbing public peace and public order, and and limitations of using rescEU in the context jeopardising peaceful coexistence. It of migration, the report outlines three proposes concrete, enforceable and scenarios: what can be done under the systematic soft and hard law measures to status quo; how activation procedures could counter hate speech and hate crimes EU- be streamlined; and establishing a rescEU wide efficiently. (169 p.) agency. (6 p.)
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Safety of journalists and the fighting of corruption in the EU The European asylum system: a necessary case of differentiation by Tarlach McGonagle @tarlachmc by Emmanuel Comte Journalism and journalists face a growing range of threats, including violence and The European asylum system is an instance harassment; the misuse of defamation and of differentiated cooperation offering flexible other laws against them, and restrictive forms of participation with opt-outs for measures on freedom of information and Denmark, Ireland and the UK. This paper expression were adopted in response to the investigates the triggers, nature and effects Covid-19 crisis. This study examines the of this differentiated cooperation and overall chilling effect of crimes and threats concludes that differentiation has been against journalists and explores various decisive to starting European cooperation in
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a new policy area, that it has created a judicial and investigative frameworks to dynamic of progressive convergence, and address organised crime. (12 p.) that its impact has been positive. (20 p.) EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK FUNDACIÓN ALTERNATIVAS Organised property crime in the EU Flujos migratorios en el Mediterráneo: causas, políticas y reforma by Ernesto U. Savona and Matteo Anastasio by Itxaso Domínguez de Olazábal @itxasdo, Ruth This report aims to provide information on Ferrero Turrión @RFT2 , Beatriz Mesa @Bmesacope organised property crime in the EU, by et al. offering a strategic discussion on the Union policies on this topic and highlighting key The Covid-19 crisis led to a shift from talk of recommendations for future action. It closing borders to refugees from Turkey to proposes a holistic approach to the problem, the closure of borders between MS. adding new elements to existing measures. According to the authors, the pandemic has (50 p.) shown the importance of migrants to our societies and their vulnerability. But it has also opened the door to nationalist populist TRANSPORT / discourses. There is no indication that in a TELECOMMUNICATIONS / post-Covid-19 world, further reflection on the ENERGY needs and relevance of human mobility will not be necessary. (ES - 111 p.) EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Electronic freight transport information EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK by Maria Niestadt Climate change and migration The movement of goods in the EU has by Albert Kraler, Caitlin Katsiaficas and Martin Wagner increased by almost 25 % over the last 20 This study examines legal and policy years, and this growth is projected to responses to environmental migration and continue. Digitalisation of information displacement. Following a review of exchange could make it more efficient and international, regional and national initiatives reliable, and yield significant savings. The and legal instruments, it offers Commission adopted a proposal for a recommendations on ways to better address regulation on electronic freight transport root causes and consequences of the information with the aim to provide for a fully climate change-migration nexus in Europe digital and harmonised environment for and beyond. (114 p.) information exchanges between transport operators and authorities. (7 p.)
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE Understanding the EU response to organised crime Towards a green, competitive and resilient EU economy: how can digitalisation help? by Katrien Luyten and Sofija Voronova by Annika Hedberg @AnnikaAhtonen and Stefan Sipka While the impact of serious and organised crime on the EU economy is considerable, This paper puts forward three there are also significant political and social recommendations for the EU to get the most costs, as well as negative effects on the out of its sustainability and digital agendas: wellbeing of EU citizens. Recognising the create a European 'data space'; develop and severity of the problem and the need for deploy digital solutions to support and coordinated action, the EU has initiated accelerate the greening of our economy and measures to encourage closer cooperation society; address the negative environmental between MS and adopted common legal, and climate impact of digitalisation. The EU should introduce requirements and financial
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incentives for developing and deploying ICT widely used model of digitalisation which has equipment that is circular and energy- ”people at its heart“ is to be implemented, efficient. (22 p.) Europe will have to place digitalisation at the service of values such as equality, democracy and justice. The author outlines EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE the political strategies and approaches that Europe can promote during this process. Getting the digital services act right: 3 (16 p.) recommendations for a thriving EU digital ecosystem EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN by Andreas Aktoudianakis RELATIONS
The digital services act (DSA) is a landmark Europe's digital sovereignty: from EU legislation that will establish limits and rulemaker to superpower in the age of US- obligations on the activities of digital services China rivalry and online platforms. The author argues that the DSA should include: a double-incentive by Carla Hobbs (ed.) mechanism that fosters competition and Europe's digital transformation and transparency among platforms and digital sovereignty are a question of existential services; a central EU agency that monitors importance. The purpose of the essay is to and enforces the DSA across the EU; and help readers understand better the strengthened national data protection challenges and opportunities that digital authorities to safeguard data access regimes technologies, and the geopolitical for the independent monitoring of giant competition over them, pose for Europe and platforms' opaque algorithmic black boxes. its MS. The EU is world leading digital (4 p.) regulatory power, however is this power sufficient to protect Europe’s interests and EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK vision for the internet and digital technologies? (99 p.) Digital sovereignty for Europe by Tambiama Madiega WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM Accelerating digital inclusion in the new This paper explains the context of the normal emerging quest for 'digital sovereignty', which the coronavirus pandemic now seems Covid-19 has highlighted how critical digital to have accelerated, and provides an connectivity is to governments, businesses, overview of the measures currently being and society, and has brought a newfound discussed and/or proposed to enhance sense of urgency to the digital inclusion European autonomy in the digital field. agenda. While the crisis has enabled (12 p.) hundreds of millions to participate online, it has also exacerbated the digital divide for FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH 47% of the world’s population that remains EBERT FOUNDATION) unconnected. The post-Covid world will be more digital – requiring more connectivity, A vision for digital Europe: from the taming digital skills, and affordability. (24 p.) of unruly platforms to a new digital humanism by Thomas Gegenhuber @gegenhuber
Digitalisation offers great potential to boost the European project for humanising the economy and society in the 21st century. The regulation of the platforms is an important step towards realising this potential. If the
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INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Bioénergies, quelle contribution a l'objectif euro de neutralité climatique by Michel Cruciani
Bioenergy resources constitute a vast and heterogeneous whole, including wood, certain dedicated crops, the organic fraction of household waste as well as residues from the wood industries and agricultural and agro-food activities. Their recovery uses three channels, solid products (logs, wood pellets), liquid products (biofuels) and gaseous products (biogas, biomethane) and is suitable for all uses (electricity, heat and transport). (FR - 52 p.)
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BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Differentiated cooperation in European foreign policy: the challenge of coherence
by Pol Morillas @polmorillas, Eduard Soler i Lecha @solerlecha, Giovanni Grevi et al.
This paper addresses the central question of the interplay between mostly informal differentiated cooperation formats in
European foreign policy, and the foreign SECTION 3 - FOREIGN policy of the EU. It provides an overview of AFFAIRS the Treaty-based mechanisms enabling differentiation in EU foreign policy and FOREIGN AND SECURITY assesses why these arrangements have hardly been used. It outlines the ways in POLICY / DEFENCE which EU MS operate through flexible mechanisms and applies this analytical REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO approach to two case studies covering ROYAL INSTITUTE) important dimensions of European foreign ¿Actor regional o global? El perfil policy – the Western Balkans and the Middle internacional de la UE East Peace Process. (24 p.) by Iliana Olivié @iolivie and Manuel Gracia INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES
This paper describes the EU's international The EUs chemical weapons sanctions profile and analyses whether the contents of regime this global strategy are aligned with the volume, nature and geographical distribution by Clara Portela @DrClaraPortela and Erica Moret of the Union's external projection. (ES - @DrEricaMoret 52 p.) According to this brief, the use of chemical weapons has increased in recent years in EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN spite of the robust disarmament regime RELATIONS seeking to curb their use. In October 2018, the EU adopted a sanctions regime against The big engine that might: how France and the proliferation and use of chemical Germany can build a geopolitical Europe weapons. Even though the EU had previously employed sanctions to halt by Jana Puglierin @jana_puglierin and Ulrike Esther nuclear proliferation it had never applied Franke sanctions to chemical weapons activities. (8 p.) This brief analyses the Franco-German engine’s potential to cooperate and lead the EU on foreign policy. The paper discusses EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK Germany’s and France’s respective roles in the EU and shows how Germany – together A balanced Arctic policy for the EU with France – can use the EU Council German presidency to build coalitions that by Petra Dolata @fabulierend might be best suited to dealing with various The EU is currently working towards aspects of foreign policy. (35 p.) updating its Arctic policy. It needs to respond to two major changes, accelerated climate change and increased geo-economic and geopolitical competition. As a supranational institution with competences in parts of the
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Arctic, and with MS having territories in the INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES region, as well as institutionalised linkages with Arctic countries, the EU needs to Uncharted territory? Towards a common balance sectoral policies, priority areas and threat analysis and a strategic compass for addressing different Arctics. (51 p.) EU security and defence
by Daniel Fiott @DanielFiott EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS Reflecting the current geopolitical turbulence facing Europe, the author argues the EU’s Disorder from chaos: why Europeans fail to rhetorical shift could split opinion that the promote stability in the Sahel word ‘geopolitics’ sits uneasily alongside terms such as ‘multilateralism’, especially by Andrew Lebovich @tweetsintheME when one considers the historical connotations of geopolitics. (8 p.) The brief analyses the activities of the Sahel alliance launched by Germany, France and Sahel countries in 2017 with the aim of INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS bringing together major international donors ESTRATÉGICOS to better coordinate development assistance and other financing efforts for the region. Las capacidades de aerotransporte militar y (28 p.) la UE. La crisis económica y la necesidad de compartir e integrar FOREIGN POLICY CENTRE by Juan Manuel Chomón Pérez Religion and forced displacement in the The economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 Eastern Orthodox world adds to the previous budget reduction in most by Lucian N. Leustean (ed.) European air forces. This article deals with the strengthening of military air cooperation in order This report examines the relationship to develop the CSDP and the Common Foreign between religion-state relations, forced and Security Policy (CFSP). It focuses on air displacement, religious diplomacy and transport and on pooling and sharing initiatives human security in Eastern Europe and that can be integrated into the CSDP. (ES - 14 Eurasia, with a focus on eight countries in the p.) region, Armenia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Greece, Moldova, Russia, Serbia and Ukraine. (79 p.) EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK EU civil protection capabilities HERTIE SCHOOL / JACQUES DELORS CENTRE by Leopold Schmertzing @leopricon
The EUs strategic compass for the security The Union civil protection mechanism and defence (UCPM) is a highly visible and tangible promise by the EU to its citizens to protect by Nicole Koenig @Nic_Koenig them when in need, and to act in solidarity in times of extraordinary suffering. This paper The EU decided to develop a “strategic explores the issue and identifies potential compass” for its security and defence policy initiatives to further improve the structural until 2022. The strategic compass represents and capability components of EU crisis a real and timely opportunity, but there is also response. (12 p.) a risk of engaging in a lengthy and winding process that would simply produce another paper. This paper presents risks and opportunities and develops recommendations for both stages of the process. (13 p.)
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FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE NATO’s nuclear mission, and to provide STRATÉGIQUE (FRS) policy-driven research to shape and inform nuclear policy at member-state level. (57 p.) L’interdiction des essais nucléaires: fragilité juridique, réussite stratégique, incertitudes politiques TRADE by Bruno Tertrais @BrunoTertrais EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE/KONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG 75 years after the Alamogordo explosion, the comprehensive test ban treaty is going Fostering Europe’s strategic autonomy: badly, but the standard is there. The test ban a new agenda for trade and investment increasingly appears to take the form of a by Johan Bjerkem standard, endorsed by the Security Council resolution of 2016. For twenty years, only This paper argues inter alia that in fostering North Korea has failed to respect it. Nuclear strategic autonomy the EU should, states that have not ratified the treaty have strengthen and modernise its trade defence respected their respective moratoria. instruments while ensuring the viability of the However, the entry into force of the Treaty temporary appeal arrangement set up to remains unlikely in the short term. (FR - 8 p.) cope with the blockage of the WTO Appellate Body. It should ensure a level playing field for ÖSTERREICHISCHE INSTITUT FÜR all companies within the Single Market and INTERNATIONALE POLITIK (AUSTRIAN continue to engage internationally, INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL modernise its networks of free trade AFFAIRS) agreements (FTAs), and re-centre its trade policy around fewer top priorities. (13 p.) The use of cyberspace in the context of hybrid warfare. Means, challenges and EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT trends POLICY MANAGEMENT by Cholpon Abdyraeva Making it count: civil society engagement in This paper aims to introduce the state of art EU trade agreement on hybrid warfare and seeks to address the by Nadia Ashraf and Jeske van Seters conceptual confusion regarding an ever- expanding concept of hybrid warfare. It The report suggests a reform of civil society attempts to assess the growing significance engagement in EU FTAs is necessary and of cyber and information domains within the particularly timely with the recently launched hybrid warfare, which can be clearly review of EU’s trade policy. Civil society can illustrated by the example of the Russian contribute towards promoting sustainability hybrid warfare strategy. (DE - 36 p.) dimensions of FTAs between the EU and other countries. However, given the lack of CHATHAM HOUSE - THE ROYAL substantial outcomes, civil society actors and INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS other stakeholders are increasingly critical of the usefulness of these mechanisms. (26 p.) Ensuring cyber resilience in NATO’s command, control and communication EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK systems International trade policy by Yasmin Afina @AfinaYasmin, Calum Inverarity and Beyza Unal @beyzaunal by Jana Titievskaia
This paper identifies, raises awareness of, The five main priorities for EU trade policy and helps reduce risks to NATO’s nuclear after coronavirus will be economic recovery, weapon systems arising from cybersecurity re-establishing a positive transatlantic vulnerabilities. It aims to respond to the need relationship, levelling the playing field with for more public information on cyber risks in China, negotiating a fair new trade
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SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS relationship with the UK, and improving BRUEGEL enforcement and implementation of the EU's trade agreements with 76 countries around The impact economy: balancing profit and the world. Each of these priorities will need impact to be balanced against the requirements of by Dirk Schoenmaker the WTO. (11 p.) This paper examines how governments and BARCELONA CENTRE FOR companies can be jointly empowered to have INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS a positive impact in terms of achieving the sustainable development goals. The central Differentiation in ASEAN, ECOWAS and premise of this paper is that the choice of MERCOSUR: a comparative analysis governance for the economy and for the corporate sector cannot be studied in by Bart Gaens, Bernardo Venturi @bervent and Anna isolation. Corporate governance must fit Ayuso @AyusoAnna within the broader economic system to be successful. (21 p.) This policy paper explores how diverse modes of differentiation occur in regions beyond Europe. Examining the Association EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Economic Community of West African States EU development cooperation and ethical (ECOWAS) and the Southern Common certification schemes: impact, transparency Market (MERCOSUR), it analyses how and traceability differentiation is applied and how it ties in by Enrique Uribe Leitz and François Ruf with primarily trade integration. Finally, it draws policy recommendations for the EU. ‘Transparency’, ‘traceability’, ‘sustainable (20 p.) standards’, ‘good agricultural practices’ and ‘zero-deforestation’ are all fine terms which DEVELOPMENT have emerged in connection with the cocoa sector’s certification process. But does the POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW reality of this process justify using such MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH terms? The initial conclusions of this study INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) reveal that a considerable number of investigations had been commissioned by The external dimension of EU migration the certification schemes themselves. (87 p.) management: the role of aid INSTITUT FÜR AUSLANDSBEZIEHUNGEN by Jolanta Szymańska @jola_szymanska, Patryk Kugiel (ΙFA) @PKugiel, Henriette Erstad et al. Culture in the sustainable development This report sees aid as a key EU instrument goals: the role of the European Union in addressing the root causes of migration, La culture dans les objectifs de but it has not been decisive for the drastic développement durable: Le rôle de reduction of irregular arrivals in Europe in l’Union européenne recent years. Nevertheless, development assistance has become crucial leverage for by Gijs de Vries the EU in persuading major transit countries to improve their border control. Although this Agenda 2030 is the most comprehensive “externalisation” of EU border management and ambitious agenda for development the seems like a successful approach for now, it world has ever seen. Culture forms part of is not sustainable in the long term. (12 p.) this agenda. The sustainable development goals provide pathways for culture to flourish, but culture also helps to drive the SDGs. The EU and its 27 MS have pledged to deliver on the global agenda. The purpose of this study is twofold. Its first objective is to take stock of the EU’s progress in reaching
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SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS the cultural goals and targets of Agenda EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK 2030. Secondly, the paper explores a limited number of potential policy priorities. (EN - Association agreement between the EU and 56 p./ FR- 63 p.) Ukraine by Anna Zygierewicz (ed.) ASIA-OCEANIA The European implementation assessment FONDATION POUR L’INNOVATION (EIA) evaluates the implementation of the association agreement, including the deep and POLITIQUE comprehensive free trade agreement, between the EU and Ukraine. The EIA shows Hong Kong: the second handover progress and challenges in the implementation of the agreement in Ukraine and stresses the by Jean-Pierre Cabestan and Laurence Daziano importance of further reforms in this Eastern @LaurenceDaziano Partnership country. (100 p.) The national security law, which came into effect in June, the day before the anniversary DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR of Hong Kong’s handover to China (1 July AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN 1997), is designed to intimidate Hong Kong COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS) civil society and suppress all protests. New ‘crimes’ are now heavily punished. Some Four scenarios for the crisis in Belarus provisions go very far in creating legal by András Rácz, Cristina Gherasimov insecurity. Directly subordinated to Beijing, @cgherasimovand Milan Nič @MilanN_inBerlin new security institutions have been set up to deal with these ‘crimes’. (84 p.) As protests continue to galvanize Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko is consolidating his FOREIGN POLICY CENTRE grip on power. This paper outlines four possible scenarios for Belarus up to one year Spotlight on Uzbekistan from now. They include options for Russia and the EU: preventing bloodshed, avoiding by Adam Hug (ed.) @AdamHug open geopolitical conflict, and preparing for a post-Lukashenko transition. (10 p.) This paper examines the progress of the reform process in Uzbekistan and explores INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES what still needs to be done. It finds that the much talked about reform process in Can Belarus resist Russian coercion? Uzbekistan is real, but that so are the significant holes in it, with a lot of work still by Anais Marin needing to be done to create an open economy, pluralist politics and free society. (161 p.) Belarus is traditionally considered to be Russia’s closest ally, and their alliance is a EASTERN PARTNERSHIP cornerstone of post-Soviet integration projects, both military and economic. But ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH bilateral relations have entered a different INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) and more conflictual phase. The paradigm shift started in 2014, when Belarus invoked President Zelensky’s first year leading its constitutional neutrality pledge to refuse to Ukraine: a case of déjà vu side with Russia in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine and the West. (8 p.) by Ryhor Nizhnikau
During his first year as President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky prioritized presidential power-building. The author forecasts instability will intensify as his personal popularity wanes and economic and political crises deepen. (8 p.)
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INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS EUROPEAN INSTITUTE OF THE INTERNATIONALES MEDITERRANEAN
Un régime dans la tourmente. Le système Democratic change and urbanisation in the de sécurité intérieure et extérieur du aftermath of the Arab revolts: Euro- Belarus Mediterranean cultural cooperation in local urban development in Morocco and Tunisia by Andreï Paratnikau by Hannah Abdullah @hannahabdull The regime's survival depends more than ever on the state security apparatus. The paper focuses on a programme that Alexander Lukashenko represses opposition supported civil society organizations in and fragments the structures ensuring the Tunisia and Morocco in their effort to assert regime's internal security. The forces of order their “right to the city” by formulating cultural are the object of an effective control which solutions to promote democratic and makes them hermetic to the slightest outside sustainable local urban development. (42 p.) influence and kills in the bud any attempt at rebellion within them. (44 p.) STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR EXPERT-GRUP INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS)
Moldova’s anaemic democracy and Reconstruction in Syria. Challenges and distorted Europeanisation – before and policy options for the EU and its member beyond 2020 states by Denis Cenușă by Muriel Asseburg
The tangible benefits of European The EU and its MS have made engagement in integration, and the costs of damaging Syria’s reconstruction conditional on viable relations with the EU, remain driving forces steps towards a negotiated conflict settle- in Moldova. Governmental instability and ment and a political opening. The author external balancing (between the EU and recommends they should adapt their Russia) make Moldova’s approach towards approach to align better with the current the EU inconsistent. (27 p.) realities and challenges on the ground i.e. targeting humanitarian aid more effectively, MIDDLE EAST / NORTH AFRICA dismantling certain sectoral sanctions and supporting the rehabilitation of basic (MENA) infrastructure. (38 p.) FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION) WESTERN BALKANS
The policies of European states and Russia GROUP FOR LEGAL AND POLITICAL on Libya STUDIES by Tarek Megerisi @Tmegrisi and Vasily Kuznetsov The Zagreb summit: one step forward, two steps back The authors argue that despite all their by Alejandro Esteso Perez @aestesop differences, European states share considerable common ground on Libya. The The leaders of the 27 EU MS and the six non- longer the war drags on, the less likely there EU countries in the Western Balkan region will be an elaboration of a clear military gathered in May 2020 for what would be the solution. Moscow will try to beef up its second EU-WB6 high-level meeting in three leverage potential in Libya so that it could put years. The Zagreb summit brought together the Libyan agenda to a more efficient use in EU representatives and enlargement hopefuls its relations with third countries. (10 p.) amid the dire outbreak of Covid-19 that is, to this day, wreaking political, economic and social havoc around the world. (12 p.)
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GROUP FOR LEGAL AND POLITICAL CLINGENDAEL - NETHERLANDS STUDIES INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Breaking down Hoti's new government: formation and the 2020-2023 plan China and the EU in the Western Balkans. A zero-sum game? by Barbara Matias by Wouter Zweers @Wouter_Zweers, Vladimir Shopov, This analysis examines how the new Hoti Frans-Paul van der Putten et al. government came to be appointed, by exploring the 2020-2023 government plan The report explores whether and how presented to the public. It also looks at the China’s approach to the six non-EU key priorities of the plan and particularly countries of the WB relates to EU interests. concentrates on its foreign policy aims tied to It focuses in particular on the question of the dialogue with Serbia and EU integration. whether China’s influence affects the (14 p.) behaviour of these countries' governments in ways that run counter to the EU’s objectives in the region. It proposes a number of actions CHINA based on recognising the developmental needs of countries in the WB and on INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES accepting that China’s economic Stand by me. The Sino-Russian normative involvement is inevitable and potentially partnership in action beneficial for such developmental needs. (62 p.) by Alice Ekman, Sinikukka Saari and Stanislav Secrieru @StasSecrieru RUSSIA It has become commonplace to describe the relationship between China and Russia as ‘a РОССИЙСКИЙ СОВЕТ ПО marriage of convenience’, in particular in the МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫМ ДЕЛАМ (RUSSIAN aftermath of the annexation of Crimea in INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL) 2014. The deepening relationship between these two states is seen as ‘stable and Russia–China dialogue: the 2020 model successful’ doomed to be a temporary solution. (8 p.) Ivan Timofeev, Elena Karpinskaya, Ksenia Kuzmina et al (eds)
EUROPEAN THINK TANKS GROUP This report analyses the dynamics of Russia- China relations across a comprehensive European fear of missing out and narratives range of areas, providing expert on China in Africa recommendations on developing interaction between Moscow and Beijing. It summarizes by Linda Calabrese @lindacalab, Poorva Karkare the results of bilateral cooperation in the @PoorvaKarkare, Sven Grimm @grimm_sven et al. 2nd–4th quarters of 2019 and the 1st quarter of 2020. The strategic partnership between Africa is being courted by world powers in Russia and China has acquired new regional search of growing markets and new and global dimensions: the countries are opportunities. China’s rapidly growing taking on greater responsibility for footprint in particular has elicited increased maintaining international peace, reforming engagement of other countries. However, multilateral institutions, and creating a new the ‘competition’, as some perceive it, needs world order. (130 p.) not to be a zero-sum game. It can be leveraged to speed progress on the continent. (14 p.)
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INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS inadequacies in Russia’s existing INTERNATIONALES infrastructure in the Russian Far East and eastern parts of Siberia. (31 p.) La Russie et l'Amérique latine au XXI siècle by Andreï Piatakov RAHVUSVAHELINE KAITSEUURINGUTE KESKUS (INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR This paper offers a detailed examination of DEFENCE AND SECURITY) the various forms of cooperation and interaction between Russia and Latin Nothing new under the sun? Continuity and America in areas such as energy, change in Russian policy towards Ukraine infrastructure and transport. It places by James Sherr particular emphasis on military-technical cooperation, at the heart of bilateral relations The aims of this report are to explain between Russia and many countries. It Ukraine’s consolidation, resilience and shows the specificity of the Russo- determination to make its own decisions Venezuelan relationship in the overall despite great asymmetries of power and structure of relations between Russia and Russia’s exploitation of its vulnerabilities and the Latin American states. (FR - 38 p.) divisions; to describe why President Volodymyr Zelensky represents an opportunity as well as a challenge to Russia; INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS and to set out necessary and realistic goals INTERNATIONALES for the West. (29 p.) Russie, les patrons de l'énergie face aux sanctions occidentales UNITED KINGDOM / BREXIT by Régis Genté EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE In order to influence Russia's policy in Heading for disaster Ukraine, after the destabilization it brought about there from 2014, the US and the EU by Roger Liddle adopted sanctions against it on an unprecedented scale. It was a question of The author provides a frank analysis of EU putting in tension the relationship between and UK expectations and realities in a range the Kremlin and the big bosses who give it of topics – Northern Ireland, establishing a the means of its ambitions, starting with level playing field, the moot issue of fisheries, those of energy. The subject is eminently security – measuring one against another to sensitive, while most of them were partly depict a contentious future UK-EU opposed to the destabilization of Ukraine, relationship. (20 p.) fearing from the outset a standoff with the West. (FR - 39 p.) INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW, KÖLN) GERMAN ECONOMIC CHATHAM HOUSE - THE ROYAL INSTITUTE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Der britische Sonderweg in Europa Networks and links: why Russia’s infrastructure is holding back its pivot to by Berthold Busch Asia After Brexit, the British are free to negotiate by Emily Ferris and Richard Connolly trade agreements with the rest of the world. But even before Brexit, British foreign trade Russia is attempting to position its Far was moving away from the EU and towards Eastern region as a logistics hub that will third countries. Yet continental Europe is still facilitate closer links to Asia and Europe. For the island nation’s most important trading this agenda to succeed, an efficient transport partner and both sides must therefore seek a infrastructure must be in place. However, as meaningful framework for future economic this paper shows, there are serious cooperation. (DE - 76 p.)
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INSTITUTE FOR GOVERNMENT CENTRE D’ÉTUDES PROSPECTIVES ET D'INFORMATIONS INTERNATIONALES Preparing Brexit: the scale of the task left (CEPII) for UK business and government Corporate tax avoidance and industry by Joe Marshall @Joe_Marshall0, Maddy Thimont Jack concentration @ThimontJack and Haydon Etherington @HST_Etherington by Julien Martin, Mathieu Parenti @Mathieu_Parenti and Farid Toubal This report finds that many businesses are poorly positioned for the end of the transition This paper argues that tax avoidance by period on 31 December. It also finds that large corporations has contributed to the however well businesses prepare, the new 25% increase in concentration among US friction at the EU-UK border could lead to firms since the mid-1990s. Corporate tax major disruption, will force many of them to avoidance gives large firms a competitive change their operations fundamentally and edge, which translates into larger market could even make some unviable. (38 p.) shares and an increase in the granularity of the economy. Had firms not resorted to tax avoidance in 2017, the average industry INSTITUTE FOR GOVERNMENT concentration would have been 8.3% lower, which is around its early 2000 level. (57 p.) Trade and regulation after Brexit by James Kane @jameskkane DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN For the first time in half a century, the UK is COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS) beginning to negotiate its own independent free trade agreements (FTAs). This report Amerikas apartheid. Der neue alte explores what pressures the UK will come Exzeptionalismus und seine under in future and what it should do about außenpolitischen Folgen them. It also says prospective trading by Josef Braml @Josef_Braml partners are likely to tell the UK to change its standards if it wants a trade deal. (44 p.) This analysis discusses why America is still trapped in racism and what effects internal UNITED STATES OF AMERICA strife has on the foreign policy of the world power: the more broken America, the more MIGRATION POLICY INSTITUTE aggressive its foreign policy and the more important a united, strong Europe becomes. Dismantling and reconstructing the U.S. (DE - 10 p.) immigration system: a catalog of changes under the Trump presidency INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT by Sarah Pierce @SarahPierceEsqand and Jessica (IW, KÖLN) GERMAN ECONOMIC Bolter @jessicabolter INSTITUTE
The Trump administration has reshaped the Biden versus Trump US immigration system since entering office in January 2017. Now well into its fourth year, by Hubertus Bardt @H_Bardt and Galina Kolev the administration has undertaken more than 400 executive actions on immigration. While transatlantic cooperation has suffered (126 p.) under the current administration, according to the authors there is a chance of a new beginning with a change of government. In terms of economic policy, the two candidates differ fundamentally. Particularly in climate and trade policy, concrete effects on global politics can be expected, which are of great importance for Europe. (DE - 22 p.)
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SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES
GREECE
FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES
The future of European migration and asylum policy post Covid-19
by Angeliki Dimitriadi
Although intended for earlier, Covid-19 has delayed the new pact and proved a game
changer for migration and asylum policy. SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER According to the author, EU MS have sent STATES mixed signals as regards the management of migration amidst the pandemic, with some GERMANY countries adopting a more flexible approach, and others clamping down further on access KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG to territory and asylum. (12 p.)
Die 5G-Debatte. Ein Test für die digitale Souveränität Europas. Eine fundamentale SPAIN strategische Herausforderung REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO by Isabel Skierka @i_skierka ROYAL INSTITUTE) España ante el acuerdo del Consejo According to the report, the 5G debate is far Europeo de julio de 2020: ¿oportunidad from over. One reason is the complex para el cambio o indigestión de fondos political implications of dealing with so-called europeos? high-risk suppliers. It is very likely that this debate will set a precedent for future by José Moisés Martín Carretero @jmoisesmartin decisions about strategic technologies. The report analyses and summarizes the debate The agreement reached at the July 2020 and shows which criteria must be considered European Council not only involves a series in a solution. (DE - 10 p.) of financial instruments, but also ratifies a recovery and growth strategy consistent with IRELAND the EU's long-term objectives. Spain must take advantage of this opportunity to ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH contribute to its own economic INSTITUTE transformation. (ES - 9 p.)
Green innovations and export performance FRANCE by Stefano Meneto and Iulia Siedschlag INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS This paper examines the relationship INTERNATIONALES between innovations with environmental benefits (green innovations) and firms’ La Bavière et la France. Préparer l'avenir export performance. The authors examine ensemble whether and to what extent green by Florian Herrmann innovations are associated with firms’ export participation and with the intensity of their With its 13 million inhabitants, its exports. (31 p.) internationally oriented economy and its gross domestic product (GDP) of 630 billion euros, the Free State of Bavaria is a strong region at the heart of Europe. Bavaria also has a unique cultural heritage, beautiful
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SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES landscapes and the best conditions for both sport and recreation, not to mention the famous Bavarian hospitality. (FR - 4 p.)
ITALY
LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY
I grandi nodi da sciogliere per salvare l'Italia by Carlo Bastasin @CarloBastasin, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi @LBiniSmaghi, Claudio De Vincenti et al.
The turning point in recent months by the initiatives of Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron offers Italy an opportunity as unexpected as it is unmissable not only to recover from the economic shock, but also to find a path of growth that is financially, socially and ecologically sustainable. Rather than starting from the use of the resources made unexpectedly available by the EU, the author draws the attention to obstacles hindering the economic growth of Italy in recent decades. (IT - 10 p.)
SWEDEN
SWEDISH INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES (SIEPS)
Tjugofem år av Europarätt i Sverige by Jane Reichel and Karin Åhman
This report describes the Europeanisation of Swedish law, with a focus on the legislative process, the content of the legislation and the application of law. According to the authors, the changes have been radical but of different kinds. The specific areas of law that are investigated are constitutional law and administrative law. (SE - 75 p.)
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