Council of the European Union General Secretariat THINK TANK REVIEW SEPTEMBER 2020 Council Library ISSUE 81 This Think Tank Review* covers articles and reports published in July and August relating to different political and policy topics. (twitter link) The Think Tank reports on the EU’s response to the impact of Covid-19 focus on the agreement brokered at the July European Council regarding the Next Generation EU recovery plan and the European budget (2021-2027). The progress in European integration and the collective and internal solidarity of all member states are commented on in detail as follows: . the scale of the response this agreement will bring to the economies and the progress in European integration both deserve to be commended; their concrete, rapid and visible translation into action is now necessary; . the historic agreement on the EU budget has broken a taboo and advanced the integration process; . the EU that emerges is potentially more integrated and more united. The papers also note the central role the German presidency of the EU Council can play in implementing the recovery fund and explore how the Covid-19 pandemic has changed the working methods of the EU institutions. The publications reflect on how the corona crisis could become a turning point in the European integration process, as the economic constraints within the euro area and the related political tensions are seen as the greatest challenge. The reports analyse the financial fragility of European households in Covid-19 times, the need for an EU anticipatory governance through contingency planning and stress-testing of policies; how an ‘EU health sovereignty’ and the EU’s international leadership in health can be fostered; how Covid-19 has tested the resilience of critical infrastructure and communication networks and systems in cyberspace, and the impact of Covid-19 on security and defence-related aspects. On EU policy areas, the papers discuss how a legitimate balance can be found between solidarity and responsibility mechanisms in debt mutualisation; the role of fiscal rules in relation to the green economy; how digitalisation can aid progress towards a green, competitive and resilient EU economy, and how Europe can achieve digital sovereignty. They look at the impact of artificial intelligence on fundamental rights in law enforcement and criminal justice; the state of the art in hybrid warfare; how the EU can modernise its trade defence instruments and its networks of free trade agreements; and why Russia’s infrastructure is holding back its ‘pivot to Asia’. The TTR can be downloaded from Council's Library blog. TTR articles are available via Eureka, the resource discovery service of the Council Libraries. The Council Library is open to staff of the EU institutions and Permanent Representations of the member states. The general public may use the Library for research purposes. It is located in the Justus Lipsius building, at JL 02 GH, Rue de la Loi 175, 1048 Brussels. Contact: [email protected] * This collection of abstracts and links was compiled by the Library of the General Secretariat of the EU Council for information purposes only. The content links are the sole responsibility of their authors. Publications linked from this review do not represent the positions, policies or opinions of the Council of the EU or the European Council. SPECIAL FOCUS TABLE OF CONTENTS SPECIAL FOCUS 4 COVID -19 4 SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS 17 SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES 19 Agriculture and Fisheries 19 Competitiveness (Internal Market, Industry, 19 Research and Space) 19 Economic and Financial Affairs 19 Education / Youth / Culture / Sport 21 Employment / Social Policy / Health and Consumer Affairs 22 Environmental Issues 22 General Affairs 23 Justice and Home Affairs 25 Transport / Telecommunications / Energy 26 SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS 29 Foreign and Security Policy / Defence 29 Trade 31 Development 32 Asia-Oceania 33 Eastern Partnership 33 Middle East / North Africa (MENA) 34 Western Balkans 34 China 35 Russia 35 United Kingdom / Brexit 36 United States of America 37 SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES 38 Germany 38 Ireland 38 Greece 38 Spain 38 France 38 Italy 39 Sweden 39 3/39 SPECIAL FOCUS SPECIAL FOCUS (MS) and the German government will assume a central role here. (12 p.) INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS Angela Merkel y cómo la gestión de la crisis de la pandemia puede marcar su legado by Pilar Requena @RequenaPilar This report highlights how the successful management of the Covid-19 pandemic has brought the German Chancellor Angela Merkel back to the forefront by proposing together with Emmanuel Macron a 500 billion euro recovery plan. Germany holds the six- COVID -19 month rotating EU presidency and BARCELONA CENTRE FOR expectations are high. Everyone is confident INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS that Angela Merkel will seize this opportunity to strengthen her legacy. (ES - 29 p.) Member states’ expectations towards the German Council Presidency CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES by Sophia Russack @SophiaRussack and Minna Ålander @minna_alander (eds.) Crisis decision-making. How Covid-19 has changed the working methods of the EU As Germany assumes the presidency of the institutions Council of the EU, the Union is facing the “biggest test of its history” according to by Sophia Russack @SophiaRussack and Drew Fenner Chancellor Angela Merkel. The challenges of the Covid-19 and an economic recession The Covid-19 pandemic has caused the could not be more extraordinary. What dynamics of the EU institutions to change. exactly do other MS expect from Germany This contribution analyses the three main and how do they set their policy priorities? institutions (Council, Commission and EP) by (22 p.) describing how decisions are usually made; exploring how they were made in corona DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR times; and assessing how well the individual AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN institutions were equipped and able to adapt COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS) to these unusual circumstances. (21 p.) Germany’s corona Presidency. Germany’s NOTRE EUROPE / INSTITUT JACQUES leadership role and European partners’ DELORS expectations Un accord historique à améliorer et à by Claire Demesmay @C_Demesmay, Julian Rappold réaliser @JulianRappold, Anna-Lena Kirch et al. by Sébastien Maillard @seb_maillard The expectations of Germany's European partners regarding the country's EU Council It is a potentially more integrated and united presidency are even higher now as a result EU that emerges from the great agreement of the coronavirus crisis. The German concluded between the 27 heads of state government's success will be measured in and government in July on a recovery plan particular by the implementation of an backed by the European multiannual budget. appropriate recovery fund as part of the MFF The scale of the response that this 2021-2027. This will require resolving the agreement will bring to the economies most conflicts of interest between member states affected by the Covid crisis and the progress 4/39 SPECIAL FOCUS in European integration it engages both 2021-2027. In the short term, the European deserve to be commended. Its concrete, Parliament (EP) and national parliaments rapid and visible translation is now must give their consent. (ES - 5 p.) necessary so that the astronomical sums announced to Europeans do not remain CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY distant promises. (FR - 6 p.) STUDIES EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK Reading between the lines of Council agreement on the MFF and Next Generation European economic recovery EU by Jerome Saulnier by Jorge Núñez Ferrer A more united Europe has the potential to This paper presents a brief rundown of the deliver greater benefits for its citizens, more actual changes in numbers and reflects on effectively and efficiently. This paper the historic agreement on the EU budget. It analyses some of the issues arising has broken a taboo and advanced the specifically in the economic field in the integration process. While attention has aftermath of the coronavirus crisis and looks focused on the Next Generation EU, the at a range of policy initiatives that could help agreement also includes the ‘normal’ MFF build a broadly based and sustainable 2021-27. (7 p.) European economic recovery and a more resilient EU. (13 p.) LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY HERTIE SCHOOL / JACQUES DELORS CENTRE Next generation EU: Una condizionalità virtuosa What the European Council's MFF recovery deal tells us about the EU's global ambition by Gianni Toniolo by Nicole Koenig @Nic_Koenig and Eulalia Rubio Apart from the agreement on the overall size @eulaliarubio of the Next Generation EU fund, confirming the 750 billion proposed by the Commission, The authors claim the compromise on the EU the July European Council had also to decide budget and recovery fund is historical in on two issues: the relationship between terms of internal solidarity, but it curtails the grants and loans and the conditions for EU’s geopolitical ambition and ability to disbursement of funds and control over their provide global public goods. EU spending on use on the other. The first question has very development and humanitarian aid is lower modest quantitative implications, while the and expenditure on security and defence has second is certainly important for the been halved compared to the Commission’s opportunity for growth it offers, if it is played 2018 proposal. If the EP fails to rectify these well by individual states and by the cuts, the MS will