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Drought on the Canadian Prairies

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Drought on the Canadian Prairies Canadian Prairie Drought: Characteristics of Precipitation at the Surface and Aloft with Attendant Atmospheric Conditions for the Summer Months of 2001 and 2002 A thesis submitted to McGill University in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Master of Science By Erin C. Evans February, 2008 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences McGill University Montréal, Quebec © Erin C. Evans, 2008 ii Abstract Droughts can have a deleterious impact on many aspects of the environment and society. Severe drought can evoke catastrophic effects, degrading the success of numerous socioeconomic activities including agriculture and agri-food, hydro-electric power generation, and water resource management. The period from 2001 to 2002 was one such drought, which caused unprecedented loss on the Western Canadian Prairies, and had an economic impact felt on the national scale. In this study, the recent drought was characterized with respect to precipitation on a small scale at three sites: Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon. Climatologically, precipitation events of low daily accumulation (≤10 mm day-1), called “light events”, were found to be an important moisture source, accounting for a majority of the total accumulation at all three locations. During the recent drought, these low daily-accumulation events continued to occur, and in fact, contributed a higher proportion to the total precipitation amount due to the lack of heavy precipitation events. Using archived radar data, precipitation events were classified into three cases: convective, stratiform, and virga. The composite dynamic forcings for these three types of events were found to be distinct. Additionally, on a small scale, the surface wind analysis for cases of precipitation and of virga showed distinctions in wind direction, and a relation to topography was evident, especially at the Alberta locations. iii Résumé La sécheresse peut avoir un impact désastreux sur l‟environnement et la société. Une sécheresse importante peut provoquer des conséquences catastrophiques sur différentes activités socioéconomiques comme l‟agriculture et l‟agroalimentaire, la production hydroélectrique et la gestion des volumes d‟eau. Une telle sécheresse a sévit entre 2001 et 2002 dans les prairies canadiennes où des pertes sans précédent ont affectées l‟économie à la grandeur du pays. La présente étude caractérise les précipitations à petite échelle à trois endroits : Calgary, Edmonton et Saskatoon. Climatologiquement, les journées présentant de faible précipitation (≤ 10 mm jour -1) ont été identifiées comme une source importante de mouillure correspondant à la majorité de l‟accumulation totale pour chacun des trois sites. Durant cette récente période de sécheresse, de faibles précipitations quotidiennes étaient toujours présentes, en fait, elles contribuaient à une plus grande proportion des précipitations totales en raison de l‟absence de précipitations importantes. Les donnés radar archivées des précipitations furent classifiées en trois catégories : précipitation convective, précipitation stratiforme et virga. Des conditions atmosphériques caractéristiques étaient associées à chacun des types de précipitations. De plus, les dynamiques des forces composites se sont révélées distinctes. Aussi, à petite échelle, l‟analyse des vents de surface lors des précipitations et virga a démontré des distinctions au niveau de la direction des vents ainsi qu‟une relation évidente avec le relief topographique, particulièrement en Alberta. iv Acknowledgements: I am deeply grateful to everyone who has helped me along this journey, without whom, I might have strayed from this meandering (and unfamiliar) path long ago. And as this “Graduate School” chapter of life comes to a close and I prepare to move on to new things, I have many people to thank who have contributed immeasurably to my success. Indeed there were times when things seemed impossible, and without the unwavering encouragement of the wonderful support network I had during my tenure at McGill, I would not be writing this today. First, I would like to thank my supervisor, Professor Ron Stewart for being himself, and for providing the guidance and insight necessary to ensure that each phase of my project (i.e. the “formation, evolution and cessation”, not unlike a drought itself) was tangible and realistic. The frequent discussions around the practical application of my research, and specifically that there were several social science implications inherent in this work were much appreciated. Also, I must acknowledge the support of the Drought Research Initiative not only for providing the funding to carry out this project, but for the introduction to the engaging group of drought scientists who have proven to be genuinely interested in the work and ideas of graduate students. This interest and support is critical in fostering a “new generation” of young scientists who will move forward, advancing the research begun with supervisors and mentors. I feel very fortunate to have been a part of this learning community. I would like to thank the Graduate Program Director, Professor Lawrence Mysak, who kept me on the track leading to graduate studies in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, despite a lack of the traditional math and physics background. To have completed this degree in what started as a foreign discipline is an accomplishment that I will be proud of forever, and something that has instilled a confidence in myself that will be invaluable in future endeavors. A huge thank you goes to Dr. Eyad Atallah for being a tremendous source of weather information, anecdotes and encouragement. Another thank you to Dr. William Henson for sharing his wealth of knowledge about radar data and expertise in Matlab programming so openly. Vaughn, thanks for always having the answer! Thanks to Rob Lillington for getting the Master‟s project off the ground by travelling nearly 6,000 km from Whitehorse to Montréal. I must also thank Dr. Shawn Marshall from the University of Calgary for his belief in my ability to undertake graduate studies at McGill. And to Jollin Charest: thank you providing for your assistance in translation from English to French. I would finally like to acknowledge the support of my family, and especially my mom who has set the precedent of academic achievement, and has always been my “number one fan”. It is with them that I share in this most recent milestone of success. v Contents Abstract .............................................................................................................................. ii Résumé ............................................................................................................................. iii Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ............................................................................................................... v List of Figures .................................................................................................................. ix List of Tables .................................................................................................................... xv 1. Introduction............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background ..................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Study Focus, Objectives, and Strategy ......................................................... 12 2. Data and Analysis Methods .................................................................. 15 2.1 Precipitation Characterization ..................................................................... 15 2.2 Radar Analysis ............................................................................................... 16 2.3 Mesoscale Analysis ......................................................................................... 17 2.4 Composite Atmospheric Conditions ............................................................. 19 3. Results and Discussion .......................................................................... 20 3.1 Precipitation Characterization ..................................................................... 20 3.1.1 Climatology of Annual Total Precipitation ............................................... 20 3.1.2 Six-year Drought Scale (1999-2004) ........................................................ 21 vi 3.1.3 Annual Scale Precipitation ........................................................................ 21 3.1.4 Seasonal Scale Precipitation ..................................................................... 22 3.1.5 Daily Total Precipitation Accumulation ................................................... 25 3.1.6 Days with Precipitation ............................................................................. 30 3.2 Sub-drought Summer Precipitation Event Analysis .................................. 31 3.2.1 Event Classification .................................................................................. 32 a) Convective versus Stratiform Precipitation ........................................... 33 b) Virga ...................................................................................................... 40 3.2.2 Summer 2001 and 2002 ............................................................................ 42 a) Hours of Precipitation and Virga .............................................................
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