RCAD RURAL COMMUNITIES ADAPTATION TO DROUGHT RESEARCH REPORT | AUGUST 2012 i | RCAD RESEARCH REPORT ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Rural Communities Adaptation to Drought (RCAD) project is grateful for the collaboration of the Canadian Plains Research Center CONTENTS and the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative of the University of Regina; the University of Saskatchewan; the University of Waterloo; the Saskatchewan Research Council; the Agri-Environment Services SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS—2 Branch of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada; and the Saskatchewan Watershed Authority. The project offers thanks to the Social Sciences PART I: INTRODUCTION—4 and Humanities Research Council of Canada for its financial support Organization of the Report—4 of this project. Project Objectives—4 We are no less grateful for the generosity of the community members Methodology—5 who donated their time to participate in the sometimes long and tedious interviews. Their contribution was essential to developing a better understanding of how extreme climate events impact rural PART II: THE IMPACTS OF DROUGHT IN 2001-2002—8 people. Characteristics of the Drought—8 The project benefited from the contributions of the following research Impacts on Agriculture—9 team members: Adaptations—10 SAIMA ABASI FANNY LUK Conclusions—11 (MA Candidate, University (MA Geography, University of Saskatchewan) of Waterloo) PART III: STUDY RESULTS— 12 DARRELL CORKAL, P. ENG. JEREMY PITTMAN 12 (Agri-Environment Services (Saskatchewan Watershed Community Overviews— Branch, Agriculture and Authority) Maple Creek Study Area—12 Agri-Food Canada) DR. DAVID SAUCHYN Shaunavon Study Area—13 DR. HARRY DIAZ (Geography, University of Regina, Coronach Study Area—14 (Sociology and Social Studies, and Research Coordinator, University of Regina) Prairie Adaptation Research Gravelbourg Study Area—14 Collaborative) Kindersley Study Area—15 SAM HAGE (PhD Candidate, Sociology, LYLE THOMSON Maidstone Study Area—15 University of Regina) (Saskatchewan Watershed Community Vulnerability—Exposures and Sensitivity—16 Authority) DR. HARVEY HILL Maple Creek and Shaunavon Study Areas—17 (Agri-Environment Services DR. JOHANNA WANDEL Coronach Study Area—18 Branch, Agriculture and (Geography and Environmental Agri-Food Canada) Management, University Gravelbourg Study Area—19 of Waterloo) MARGOT HURLBERT Kindersley Study Area—20 (Sociology and Social Studies/ JIM WARREN Maidstone Study Area—21 Justice Studies, University of (PhD Candidate, Canadian Plains Regina) Studies, University of Regina) Adaptive Capacity of Communities—22 Maple Creek and Shaunavon Study Areas—22 SAMANTHA KERR DR. ELAINE WHEATON (MSc. Candidate, Geography, (Climatology, University of Coronach and Gravelbourg Study Areas—31 University of Regina) Saskatchewan, and Saskatchewan Kindersley Study Area—35 Research Council) DR. SUREN KULSHRESHTHA Maidstone Study Area—38 (Policy, Business and Economics, University of Saskatchewan) PART IV: CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN—40 EDitORS: Harry Diaz and Jim Warren PROject AdminiStrativE ASSiStAnt: Pat Barrett-Deibert PART V: CONCLUSIONS—44 copy EDitOR: Donna Grant, CPRC Press Design: Duncan Campbell, CPRC Press APPENDIX: STATISTICAL TABLES—52 MAPS: Diane Perrick, CPRC Press PhOtOS: Jim Warren and David Sauchyn REFERENCES—54 ii | RCAD RESEARCH REPORT SUMMARY OBSERVatIONS Despite high levels of technical adaptation, human capital and vibrant social and information networks, agricultural producers in Saskatchewan’s portion of the Palliser Triangle region remain highly vulnerable to severe droughts lasting more than two to three years. gricultural producers in the Saskatchewan Despite high levels of technical adaptation, human Shaunavon, for example, is located over an aquifer The findings of paleoclimate research and projections portion of the Palliser Triangle region have capital and vibrant social and information networks, that provides ample high-quality drinking water that based on future climate change scenarios suggest that made significant advances in production agricultural producers in Saskatchewan’s portion of requires minimal treatment. Gravelbourg, on the other droughts could become more frequent, more severe methods that have enhanced their the Palliser Triangle region remain highly vulnerable hand, relies on a surface water source that is vulnerable and of longer duration in the Palliser Triangle region capacity to withstand drought. The near to severe droughts lasting more than two to three to drought and requires more intensive treatment. over the course of the 21st century. This is troubling, Auniversal adoption of minimum tillage practices is the years. Levels of vulnerability on individual production Some communities have been able to overcome given the current resilience threshold of two to three most significant adaptation to occur since the severe units are naturally related to each unit’s access to natural disadvantages by constructing ameliorating years of back-to-back severe drought identified by droughts of the late 1980s. That adaptation served to natural capital. With that qualification in mind, the infrastructure systems. For instance, Kindersley and the RCAD research. Without significant efforts to improve resilience and somewhat mitigate the impacts availability of economic capital stands as the most neighbouring communities have a pipeline to the further enhance drought preparedness as well as the of drought for many producers during the severe significant non-natural constraint to sustainability in South Saskatchewan River, which has allowed them adaptive capacity of agricultural producers and the drought of 2001 and 2002 (relative to the experience the face of prolonged drought. Economic vulnerability to overcome quality and quantity problems associated town and countryside communities they support, the in years such as 1988). Widespread soil erosion, for results from the cost price squeeze whereby increasing with local surface and groundwater sources. The long-term sustainability of the current social and example, was less of a problem in 2001 and 2002 than it input costs combined with low commodity prices limited financial capacity of these communities economic character of the region is in doubt. had been in 1988. Adaptations enhancing on-farm water restrict capital accumulation on the part of primary restricts their ability to achieve greater water security. management have also been made on many production producers. Economic vulnerability is also affected by units. Well and dugout construction have been the limitations of the current set of senior government- The small irrigation projects in the southwest corner underway for several decades. However, following the supported farm risk management programs. of the province remain vulnerable to the drought drought of 2001-2002 there has been an increase in the exposures they were putatively constructed to construction of pasture pipelines and regional pipelines. The resilience of rural-urban community water address. A combination of deteriorating natural capital, These pipelines enhance resilience related to the effects systems to prolonged drought varies considerably inadequate infrastructure and management issues of drought on livestock watering and domestic water between communities. This is a function of contributes to the challenges facing these projects. supplies for many farmsteads. significant differences in natural capital and existing infrastructure. Some communities are better located in relation to reliable quality water sources than others. 2 | RCAD RESEARCH REPORT 3 | SUMMARY OBSERVatIONS PART I: INTRODUCTION OrGANIZATION OF THE REPORT he introductory section of the report, Part I: Introduction, describes the RCAD project’s objectives and the research methodologies we employed. An Appendix that includes statistical tables is attached T to the report, providing additional information on Part II: The Impacts of Drought in 2001- the demographic and economic context of the study 2002 provides an overview of the impacts of communities. One table provides census data and a a severe multi-year drought (2001-2002) on calculation based on census data for the proportion agriculture on the Canadian Prairies. of area for each rural municipality (RM) that was METHODOLOGY employed for crop production as opposed to use for 2. We selected urban communities that were Part III: Study Results summarizes the findings of this pasture, forage production and summerfallow in 2010. The project objectives were addressed through study of six communities. It includes a brief overview It also includes average prices paid for pasture and experiencing population growth or at least a an ethnographic study of six Saskatchewan rural relatively low rate of population decline, as of the six study communities, and then applies the cultivated land in study area RMs over the 24-month communities and their surrounding agricultural concepts of vulnerability, exposure/sensitivities, and period from February 2010 to February 2012. A second opposed to the experience of many rural-urban areas at different stages of social and environmental communities that have had significant population adaptive capacity to the community field research table provides average yield data for spring wheat and vulnerability. Five of the study communities (Shaunavon, data collected for the project. That data is in the form canola in the study area RMs over the 2001-2010 period. loss over the past few decades (dying towns). The Maple Creek, Gravelbourg,