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Text of the Previous Instrumental Record Second-Order Draft Chapter 3 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report 1 Chapter 3: Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change 2 3 Coordinating Lead Authors: Kevin E. Trenberth, Philip D. Jones 4 5 Lead Authors: Peter G. Ambenje, Roxana Bojariu, David R. Easterling, Albert M. G. Klein Tank, David E. 6 Parker, James A. Renwick, Fatemeh Rahimzadeh, Matilde M. Rusticucci, Brian J. Soden, Pan-Mao Zhai 7 8 Contributing Authors: Robert Adler, Lisa Alexander, Hans Alexandersson, Richard P. Allan, Mark P. 9 Baldwin, Martin Beniston, David H. Bromwich, Inés Camilloni, Christophe Cassou, Daniel R. Cayan, 10 Edmund K. M. Chang, John R. Christy, Aiguo Dai, Clara Deser, Nikolai Dotzek, John Fasullo, Ryan L. 11 Fogt, Christopher K. Folland, Piers Forster, Melissa Free, Christoph Frei, Byron Gleason, Jürgen Grieser, 12 Pavel Y. Groisman, Sergey K. Gulev, James W. Hurrell, Masayoshi Ishii, Simon A. Josey, Per W. Kållberg, 13 George N. Kiladis, Ramesh H. Kripalani, Kenneth E. Kunkel, Chiu Ying Lam, John R. Lanzante, Jay H. 14 Lawrimore, David H. Levinson, Beate G. Liepert, Gareth J. Marshall, Carl A. Mears, Philip W. Mote, 15 Hishashi Nakamura, Neville Nicholls, Joel R. Norris, Taikan Oki, Franklin R. Robertson, Karen H. 16 Rosenlof, Fred H. Semazzi, Dennis J. Shea, J. Marshall Shepherd, Theodore G. Shepherd, Steven. C. 17 Sherwood, Adrian J. Simmons, Ian Simmonds, Peter C. Siegmund, Chris D. Thorncroft, Peter W. Thorne, 18 Sakari M. Uppala, Russell S. Vose, Bin Wang, Stephen G. Warren, Richard Washington, Matthew C. 19 Wheeler, Bruce A. Wielicki, Takmeng Wong, David B. Wuertz. 20 21 Review Editors: Brian J. Hoskins, Bubu P. Jallow, Thomas R. Karl 22 23 Date of Draft: 22 February 2006 24 25 Notes: This is the TSU compiled version. 26 27 28 Table of Contents 29 30 Executive Summary............................................................................................................................................................3 31 3.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................................................6 32 3.2 Changes in Surface Climate: Temperature.................................................................................................................7 33 3.2.1 Background ...................................................................................................................................................7 34 3.2.2 Temperature in the Instrumental Record for Land and Oceans....................................................................8 35 3.3 Changes in Surface Climate: Precipitation, Drought and Surface Hydrology .........................................................15 36 3.3.1 Background .................................................................................................................................................15 37 3.3.2 Changes in Large-scale Precipitation.........................................................................................................16 38 3.3.3 Evapotranspiration .....................................................................................................................................20 39 3.3.4 Changes in Soil Moisture, Drought, Runoff and River Discharge ..............................................................21 40 Box 3.1: Drought Terminology and Determination..........................................................................................................24 41 3.3.5 Consistency and Relationships between Temperature and Precipitation ...................................................24 42 3.4 Changes in the Free Atmosphere .............................................................................................................................25 43 3.4.1 Temperature of the Upper Air: Troposphere and Stratosphere..................................................................25 44 3.4.2 Water Vapour..............................................................................................................................................31 45 3.4.3 Clouds .........................................................................................................................................................35 46 3.4.4 Radiation.....................................................................................................................................................37 47 Box 3.2: The Dimming of the Planet and Apparent Conflicts in Trends of Evaporation and Pan Evaporation ...............39 48 3.5 Changes in Atmospheric Circulation .......................................................................................................................40 49 3.5.1 Surface or Sea Level Pressure.....................................................................................................................40 50 3.5.2 Geopotential Height, Winds and the Jet Stream..........................................................................................41 51 3.5.3 Storm Tracks ..............................................................................................................................................42 52 3.5.4 Blocking ......................................................................................................................................................42 53 3.5.5 The Stratosphere .........................................................................................................................................43 54 Box 3.3: Stratospheric-Tropospheric Relations and Downward Propagation ..................................................................44 55 3.5.6 Winds, Waves and Surface Fluxes...............................................................................................................44 56 3.5.7 Summary .....................................................................................................................................................46 57 3.6 Patterns of Circulation Variability ...........................................................................................................................46 58 3.6.1 Teleconnections...........................................................................................................................................46 59 Box 3.4: Defining the Circulation Indices ........................................................................................................................47 60 3.6.2 El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Tropical/Extra-tropical Interactions ....................................................48 Do Not Cite or Quote 3-1 Total pages: 123 Second-Order Draft Chapter 3 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report 1 3.6.3 Decadal Pacific Variability.........................................................................................................................49 2 3.6.4 The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Northern Annular Mode (NAM)..............................................50 3 3.6.5 The Southern Hemisphere and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) .................................................................51 4 3.6.6 Other Indices...............................................................................................................................................52 5 3.6.7 Summary .....................................................................................................................................................54 6 3.7 Changes in the Tropics and Subtropics ....................................................................................................................54 7 3.7.1 Monsoons ....................................................................................................................................................54 8 3.7.2 The Hadley and Walker Circulations, ITCZ, and Subtropical Highs..........................................................58 9 3.7.3 Summary .....................................................................................................................................................59 10 3.8 Changes in Extreme Events .....................................................................................................................................59 11 3.8.1 Background .................................................................................................................................................59 12 3.8.2 Evidence for Changes in Variability or Extremes.......................................................................................60 13 3.8.3 Evidence for Changes in Tropical Storms...................................................................................................63 14 Box 3.5: Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change.............................................................................................................63 15 3.8.4 Evidence for Changes in Extratropical Storms and Extreme Events ..........................................................68 16 Box 3.6: Specific Extreme Events ....................................................................................................................................69 17 3.8.5 Summary .....................................................................................................................................................72 18 3.9 Synthesis: Consistency Across Observations...........................................................................................................74 19 References ........................................................................................................................................................................79
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