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Spatial Patterns of Preinstrumental Moisture Variability in the Southern Canadian Cordillera

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Spatial Patterns of Preinstrumental Moisture Variability in the Southern Canadian Cordillera 1AUGUST 2005 WATSON AND LUCKMAN 2847 Spatial Patterns of Preinstrumental Moisture Variability in the Southern Canadian Cordillera EMMA WATSON Climate Research Branch, Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, Downsview, Ontario, Canada BRIAN H. LUCKMAN Department of Geography, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada (Manuscript received 7 May 2004, in final form 23 October 2004) ABSTRACT Extreme wet and dry intervals of the last 350 yr in the Canadian Cordillera and adjacent United States are examined using a network of 25 tree-ring-based precipitation and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions. Reconstructed twentieth-century-mapped patterns compare well with patterns based on the instrumental records at both annual and decadal scales. During the most extreme events, dry conditions occurred over the entire area. The longest widespread drought in the last 350 yr occurred from 1917 to 1941. Shorter intervals of more severely dry conditions occurred in the early 1720s, 1750s, 1790s, 1860s–70s, and the 1890s. Many of the driest individual years and most extreme dry periods of Ͻ7yrare reconstructed for the eighteenth century. The longest, wettest periods identified by these reconstructions occurred in the early twentieth century. In agreement with published studies that explore links between instrumental precipitation records from the region and conditions in the Pacific Ocean, the reconstructed records show that drier (wetter)-than-normal conditions are associated with El Niño (La Niña) events and the positive (negative) phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). 1. Introduction States (Cook et al. 1996, 1999) has demonstrated the tremendous potential for tree-ring-based reconstruc- The majority of dendroclimatic work conducted in tions to document spatial as well as temporal patterns the southern Canadian Cordillera has focused on gen- of preinstrumental climate variability. Reconstruction erating estimates for individual climatic time series: ei- of such patterns allows us to compare the magnitude ther for a single meteorological station (e.g., Watson and spatial extent of documented extreme events (e.g., and Luckman 2001a) or a regionally representative the 1920s–1930s drought) with those in the preinstru- time series (e.g., Luckman et al. 1997; Wilson and Luck- mental period. This type of information cannot be elic- man 2003). Although these studies have greatly ex- ited from individual station reconstructions and is panded our knowledge of climatic variability at sites highly significant because of the relatively greater eco- within the region, they have not systematically explored nomic and social costs of widespread prolonged variability across the region. Climate reconstructions drought vis-à-vis shorter, more localized severe events. for individual records contain local-, regional- and Much of the southern Canadian Cordillera and the large-scale signals that cannot be differentiated, or veri- neighboring prairies lie in the rainshadow of adjacent fied, without the broader view and replication that a mountains and consequently have low mean annual network of sites affords. The recent development of a precipitation totals (often less than 400 mm). The spa- gridded network of Palmer Drought Severity Index tial and temporal variability of precipitation is there- (PDSI) reconstructions for the contiguous United fore a significant control of many economic activities and an important conditioner for forest fire activity within the region. The extreme forest fire season of Corresponding author address: Dr. Emma Watson, Climate Re- search Branch, Meteorological Service of Canada, 4905 Dufferin 2003 in the British Columbia interior was preceded by Street, Downsview, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada. three years of drought and cost the province an esti- E-mail: [email protected] mated 700 million dollars, destroyed over 300 homes, © 2005 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/30/21 05:21 PM UTC 2848 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 18 and led to the evacuation of over 45 000 people (Filmon 2004). Watson and Luckman (2001a, 2004) have developed tree-ring-based reconstructions of annual precipitation for 13 meteorological stations across this region. These data, combined with precipitation/PDSI reconstruc- tions for the Rocky Mountain foothills, the Canadian Prairies, and adjacent United States provide the first dataset that can be used to explore spatial aspects of preinstrumental precipitation in western Canada. This study complements earlier research into temporal char- acteristics of dry and wet events in the region using these data (Watson and Luckman 2004). In this paper, we present maps of the spatial extent of dry and wet periods in the southern Canadian Cordil- lera over the past 350 yr. The periods identified during the twentieth century can be compared with those in FIG. 1. Location of the tree-ring reconstructions used in this study. Annual (Jul–Jun) precipitation reconstructions developed the preinstrumental period. This allows us to determine by Watson and Luckman (2004) are PG ϭ Prince George, BC ϭ whether these earlier events were more extensive and/ Big Creek, WL ϭ Williams Lake, JA ϭ Jasper, NT ϭ North or severe than those identified in the instrumental rec- Thompson, LI ϭ Lillooet, LY ϭ Lytton, WE ϭ Westwold, BA ϭ ord (e.g., the infamous drought of the 1920s–30s). It Banff, SU ϭ Summerland, OL ϭ Oliver, CR ϭ Cranbrook, and ϭ also provides data about the past frequency of wide- WA Waterton. Here, CM is an annual precipitation reconstruc- tion (Aug–Jul for a combined Fort Macleod and Calgary record) spread dry and wet events that persist over different using limber pine (Case and MacDonald 1995). SAU is an annual time scales across the region. To improve our under- precipitation reconstruction (Aug–Jul) for Maple Creek, Sas- standing of the causes of widespread events, we provide katchewan, using white spruce from the Cypress Hills (Sauchyn a preliminary discussion of their possible association and Beaudoin 1998). The grid points (GPs) are gridded Jun–Aug with conditions in the Pacific Ocean. PDSI reconstructions from Cook et al. (1999). The shaded area in Canada represents the approximate location of the Palliser Tri- angle, which is an extension of the U.S. northern Great Plains 2. Datasets and reconstruction quality (also shaded). a. Datasets used Although proxy records of two different variables The primary dataset used in this analysis consists of (precipitation and PDSI) are used in this study, the two 13 annual (prior July to current June) precipitation re- moisture measurements are comparable. The PDSI constructions developed from a network of Pseudot- (Palmer 1965) is a measure of meteorological drought suga menziesii (Douglas fir) and Pinus ponderosa (pon- that incorporates precipitation, potential evapotranspi- derosa pine) tree-ring chronologies sampled at low el- ration, and antecedent soil moisture and runoff (Ola- evation sites in the southern Canadian Cordillera dipo 1985). Monthly PDSI values have considerable (Watson and Luckman 2001b, 2004). In addition, to month-to-month persistence built into them (Hu and expand spatial coverage, we utilize data from 10 adja- Wilson 2000) and therefore represent conditions over a cent grid points from the June–August PDSI estimates much longer time period than monthly precipitation. in the northwestern United States (Cook et al. 1999) Annual instrumental precipitation totals (summer– plus annual (prior August to current June) precipita- summer) correlate highly with summer PDSI values in tion reconstructions for the Rocky Mountain foothills the southern Canadian Cordillera (Watson and Luck- (Case and MacDonald 1995) and Canadian Prairies man 2002). For example, the mean correlation between (Sauchyn and Beaudoin 1998; Fig. 1). Although these August and July precipitation at 17 stations in the area sites are unevenly distributed across the region (Fig. 1), and the June–August (JJA) PDSI (the period used by Watson and Luckman (2004) demonstrate that the re- Cook et al. 1999) is 0.79. As others report similar results constructions from the southern Canadian Cordillera (e.g., Stahle et al. 2000) we consider these two param- correlate significantly with gridded instrumental pre- eters to be comparable.1 cipitation data over the region and define coherent spa- tial patterns. This indicates that these reconstructions 1 Few instrumental PDSI records are available for the southern capture regional precipitation variability and are there- Canadian Cordillera and therefore preference was given to recon- fore appropriate for use in this study. structing precipitation variables (Watson and Luckman 2002). Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/30/21 05:21 PM UTC 1AUGUST 2005 WATSON AND LUCKMAN 2849 b. Comparing instrumental and reconstructed years. Mean correlation and congruence coefficients precipitation patterns calculated between the pairs of decadal maps (similar to the maps of widespread anomalies presented later in The individual reconstruction models pass conven- this paper) are higher than for individual years (0.78 tional verification tests that evaluate the year-to-year and 0.79; Fig. 4). performance and levels of explained variance in the time series over several intervals (Watson and Luck- man 2004; Cook et al. 1999; Sauchyn and Beaudoin 1998; Case and MacDonald 1995). However, these tests 3. Results do not evaluate the collective ability of the reconstruc- a. Evaluation of the relative severity of prolonged tions
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