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Seasonality of the Water Balance of the Sooke Reservoir, BC, Canada

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Seasonality of the Water Balance of the Sooke Reservoir, BC, Canada Seasonality of the Water Balance of the Sooke Reservoir, BC, Canada by Arelia Taymen Werner B.Sc., University of British Columbia, 2000 A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE in the Department of Geography Arelia Taymen Werner, 2007 University of Victoria All rights reserved. This thesis may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by photocopy or other means, without the permission of the author. ii Supervisory Committee _____________________________________________________________________ Dr. Terry D. Prowse, Co-Supervisor (Department of Geography) _____________________________________________________________________ Dr. John J. Gibson, Co-Supervisor (Department of Geography) _____________________________________________________________________ Dr. Dan L. Peters, Departmental Member (Department of Geography) _____________________________________________________________________ Dr. Barrie R. Bonsal, Departmental Member (Department of Geography) Examining Committee All members of the Supervisory Committee and _____________________________________________________________________ Dr. Garth van der Kamp, External Examiner (University of Saskatchewan) iii Supervisory Committee Dr. Terry D. Prowse, Co-Supervisor (Department of Geography) Dr. John J. Gibson, Co-Supervisor (Department of Geography) Dr. Dan L. Peters, Departmental Member (Department of Geography) Dr. Barrie R. Bonsal, Departmental Member (Department of Geography) Abstract Climate change and population growth is putting increased pressure on water supply. However, detailed water-balance information, which would assist with management is lacking for major reservoirs around the world. This information is particularly critical in mid- latitude northern Mediterranean climates where evaporation is a potentially important water- balance component. This study examines the seasonality of the water balance for the Sooke Reservoir in western Canada, a major water supply for the City of Victoria, British Columbia. Evaporation is estimated with three evaporation models, Penman, Priestley-Taylor, and Hamon and the results are compared. Inflows are estimated with the contributing-area approach and the HBV- EC, hydrologic model. Finally, a worst-case drought scenario is created. If conditions of low precipitation and high evaporation like those found in the study period were to persist, water levels would become critically low during the third dry season and by the fifth season if water restrictions were put in place. iv Table of Contents Supervisory Committee ................................................................................................ ii Abstract........................................................................................................................iii Table of Contents......................................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES....................................................................................................... vi LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgments......................................................................................................... x CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION................................................................................. 1 1 BACKGROUND .............................................................................................. 1 2 STUDY AREA................................................................................................. 3 3 PREVIOUS STUDIES OF THE SOOKE RESERVOIR ................................. 5 4 RESEARCH PROBLEM.................................................................................. 6 5 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES............................................................................. 7 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................... 11 CHAPTER 2: STUDY AREA.................................................................................... 14 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 14 2 REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATIC SETTING................................................ 14 3 PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS............................................................... 16 4 RESERVOIR HISTORY AND LIMNOLOGY ............................................. 21 5 DATA HISTORY SUMMARY ..................................................................... 22 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................... 28 CHAPTER 3: ESTIMATING EVAPORATION FROM THE SOOKE RESERVOIR, BC, CANADA ............................................................................................................ 32 ABSTRACT................................................................................................................ 32 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 33 2 STUDY AREA............................................................................................... 38 3 METHODOLOGY AND DATA.................................................................... 40 3.1 Observational Data......................................................................................41 3.2 The Penman Estimate ................................................................................. 42 3.3 Priestley-Taylor Estimate............................................................................ 44 3.4 The Hamon Estimate and an Adjustment Factor ........................................ 51 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION..................................................................... 52 4.1 The Penman Estimate ................................................................................. 52 4.2 The Priestley-Taylor Estimate .................................................................... 58 4.3 Heat-Storage Flux....................................................................................... 62 4.4 The Hamon and Monthly Adjustment Factors............................................ 67 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................... 73 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................... 77 CHAPTER 4: SEASONALITY OF THE WATER BALANCE OF THE SOOKE RESERVOIR, BC, CANADA.................................................................................... 83 ABSTRACT................................................................................................................ 83 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 84 2 STUDY AREA............................................................................................... 87 v 3 METHODOLOGY AND DATA.................................................................... 90 3.1 Total Inputs................................................................................................. 90 3.1.1 Surface Water Inflows ........................................................................ 91 3.1.1.1 Primary Data................................................................................... 91 3.1.1.2 Secondary Data............................................................................... 92 3.1.1.3 Methods for Discharge Estimate..................................................... 93 3.1.1.3.1 Modelled Total Inflows.............................................................94 3.1.1.3.2 Scaling Inflows from Individual Catchments up to the Total Inflow Estimate........................................................................................... 96 3.1.1.3.3 Estimates of Total Inflows Based on Contributing Area Approach 97 3.1.2 Diversions ........................................................................................... 99 3.1.3 Groundwater ....................................................................................... 99 3.2 Total Outputs............................................................................................ 100 3.2.1 Evaporation....................................................................................... 100 3.2.2 Spill................................................................................................... 101 3.2.3 Fisheries Release............................................................................... 101 3.2.4 Consumption..................................................................................... 102 3.3 Change in Storage..................................................................................... 103 3.4 Closure of the Water balance.................................................................... 103 3.5 Seasonal Trends and Extremes ................................................................. 103 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION................................................................... 105 4.1 Total Inputs............................................................................................... 105 4.1.1 Surface Water Inflows ...................................................................... 105 4.1.1.1 Validity of HBV-EC Model.......................................................... 105 4.1.1.2 Comparison of Total Inflow Estimates......................................... 108 4.1.1.2.1
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