Assessment of the Influence of Nonstationary Climate on Extreme Hydrology of Southwestern Canada
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ASSESSMENT OF THE INFLUENCE OF NONSTATIONARY CLIMATE ON EXTREME HYDROLOGY OF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research For the Degree of Special Case Doctor of Philosophy in Geography University of Regina By Sunil Gurrapu Regina, Saskatchewan January 2020 Copyright 2020: S. Gurrapu UNIVERSITY OF REGINA FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES AND RESEARCH SUPERVISORY AND EXAMINING COMMITTEE Sunil Gurrapu, candidate for the degree of Special Case Doctor of Philosophy in Geography, has presented a thesis titled, Assessment of the Influence of Nonstationary Climate on Extreme Hydrology in Southwestern Canada, in an oral examination held on November 7, 2019. The following committee members have found the thesis acceptable in form and content, and that the candidate demonstrated satisfactory knowledge of the subject material. External Examiner: *Dr. Stephen Jacques Dery, University of Northern British Columbia Co-Supervisor: Dr. David Sauchyn, Department of Geography & Environmental Studies Co-Supervisor: *Dr. Kyle Hodder, Department of Geography & Environmental Studies Committee Member: *Dr. Jeannine St. Jacques, Adjunct Committee Member: Dr. Peng Wu, Environmental System Engineering Committee Member: Dr. Ulrike Hardenbicker, Department of Geography & Environmental Studies Chair of Defense: Dr. Fanhua Zeng, Faculty of Graduate Studies & Research *Via ZOOM conferencing ABSTRACT The demand for water supplies across southwestern Canada has increased substantially over the past century with growing population and economic activities. At the same time, the region’s resilience to the impacts of hydrological extremes, floods and droughts is challenged by the increasing frequency of these extreme events. In addition, increased winter temperatures over the past century have led to declines in winter snowpack and caused earlier snowmelt, leading in some years to a substantial shortage of water during late summer and fall seasons. This calls for a better understanding of the flood and drought characteristics in addition to the information on water availability for effective water management and to design infrastructure resilient to such extreme conditions. The objective of this thesis is to examine the spatial and temporal variability of available water in the naturally flowing watersheds of southwestern Canada and evaluate various regional hydroclimatic and large-scale climatic indices in representing the regional hydrology and hydrological extremes. To do so, I first examined the empirical relationships between historically observed streamflow in 24 naturally flowing watersheds across southwestern Canada and the associated watershed’s hydroclimate, represented by the watershed averaged Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The hydroclimate of all the selected watersheds is assumed to be represented by the second version of the NRCAN gridded climate dataset. These empirical relationships indicate that the water availability can be represented by the watershed averaged SPEI. I then developed SPEI-based principle component regression (PCR) equations and found them to be very efficient in representing the variability in historically observed monthly and annual streamflow. These equations are simpler to build than calibrating a numerical hydrological model S. Gurrapu, 2020 P a g e | ii and can be applied over large areas and many sub-basins with minimal data requirements to estimate streamflow. I then analysed the annual peak flows in 119 naturally flowing watersheds and 8 regulated watersheds, but with naturalized streamflow datasets, across southwestern Canada to examine the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on annual flood risk. Using Spearman’s rank correlation ρ and permutation tests on quantile-quantile plots, I found that higher magnitude floods are more likely during the negative phase of the PDO than during the positive phase. In addition, the flood frequency analysis (FFA) stratified according to PDO phase suggests that higher magnitude floods may also occur more frequently during the negative PDO phase than during the positive phase. These results question the validity of the stationarity assumption made in FFA and suggest that the knowledge of large-scale climate state should be considered prior to the design and construction of key infrastructure. The results indicate that the stationarity assumption is not tenable in the watersheds of southwestern Canada. To demonstrate the invalidity of the stationarity assumption, I evaluated the variability in drought characteristics, i.e. severity, duration and frequency as applied to the City of Calgary, as a case study. The drought characteristics are defined by the historic (100 years of observed) and prehistoric (900 years of stochastically generated from tree-ring reconstructions of annual streamflow) weekly streamflow datasets. The results indicate that the severity and duration of hydrological drought with the same frequency is substantially larger and longer in the prehistoric period than that observed over the historical period. The results also indicate that varying lengths of data used in determining characteristics of extreme events produce varying results, which indicate that the stationarity assumption could be deceptive. Overall, the results demonstrate the implications of the non-stationary climate. in the analysis of hydrological extremes. S. Gurrapu, 2020 P a g e | iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my gratitude to everyone that supported and guided me in completing my research work and putting this thesis together. I owe a many thanks to my co-supervisors Dr. David J Sauchyn and Dr. Kyle R Hodder, for their constant support, patience and belief in me. I could not have completed this thesis without their guidance and continuous feedback. Their encouraging and supporting words have reassured me and helped me to work harder in completing the research work. I also would like to thank all of my committee members for their advice and encouragement in many meetings we have had. My rationale thinking has evolved over the past few years from all the critical suggestions and comments from the committee members, which has helped me in making relevant conclusions from my research work. A very special thanks to Dr. Jeannine St. Jacques for the encouragement she gave me in accomplishing all the objectives of my research work. Her encouraging words have always helped me boost up my confidence and inspired me to work harder in putting this thesis together. I sincerely appreciate her constant support and advice in correcting my English grammar and writing skills. This has helped me substantially in preparing the manuscripts and this thesis. I also would like to acknowledge the constant support I received from my family and friends. Their encouragement has helped me to pursue and accomplish one of the major objectives of my career. Long conversations with my friends Solomon Yadessa Kenno and Vikas Methre have helped me rebuild my confidence and work towards my goals. I can never forget the comforting words from all my other friends. A very special thanks to the God-given sister Dr. Meena Pole for her constant support every time I needed. S. Gurrapu, 2020 P a g e | iv DEDICATION I would like to dedicate this thesis to all the members of my family whose love and support over many years have laid foundation for the discipline and dedication necessary in completion of this work. S. Gurrapu, 2020 P a g e | v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page # ABSTRACT ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv DEDICATION v CHAPTER 1: Introduction and Literature Review 1.1. Overview 1 1.2. Objectives 5 CHAPTER 2 Abstract 7 Keywords 7 2.1. Introduction 8 2.2. Data and Study Region 10 2.3. Methods 12 2.4. Results 16 2.5. Discussion 21 2.6. Conclusions 24 2.7. Figures 25 2.8. Tables 34 Appendix 38 CHAPTER 3 Abstract 39 Key Terms 39 3.1. Introduction 40 3.2. Study Area and Data 42 3.3. Methods 44 3.4. Results and Discussion 47 3.5. Conclusion 53 3.6. Figures 55 3.7. Tables 64 Supplementary Figures 70 S. Gurrapu, 2020 P a g e | vi Supplementary Tables 74 Supplementary Text 88 CHAPTER 4 Abstract 97 Key Points 97 4.1. Introduction 98 4.2. Study Region and Data 100 4.3. Methods of Analysis 103 4.4. Results and Discussion 108 4.5. Conclusions 114 4.6. Figures 118 4.7. Tables 128 CHAPTER 5: Conclusions 5.1. Summary 130 5.2. Assessment of Regional Hydroclimate for Streamflow Prediction 130 5.3. Influence of Non-stationary climate on Hydrological Extremes 131 5.4. Reliability of Current Water Supply and Management Systems 132 BIBLIOGRAPHY 135 APPENDIX Statement of Co-Authorship 151 S. Gurrapu, 2020 P a g e | vii CHAPTER 1: Introduction and Literature Review 1.1. Overview A growing population and economic activities across southwestern Canada have increased the demand for water supplies and at the same time increased the region’s vulnerability to extreme hydrological events, floods and droughts (e.g. Schindler & Donahue, 2006; Horbulyk, 2014; Sauchyn et al., 2015; Hurlbert and Gupta, 2017). Therefore, the planning and design of water resources (e.g. dams, canal systems) and transportation (e.g. roads, bridges) infrastructure for efficient distribution and management of the available water in this region requires a depth of knowledge on the magnitude, duration, and frequency of regional hydrological extremes, in addition to information on water availability. The majority of the watersheds across southwestern Canada are snow- dominated; and winter snowpack is the primary reservoir