BERLUSCONI, RUNNING AGAIN, IS NO LONGER PROMISING 'ITALIAN MIRACLE' The New York Times, 12.04.2008
The endless clowning remains, like when he grasped his chest recently as if dying after eating buffalo mozzarella, now the focus of a dioxin scare. But other than the superwhite teeth, gone are many of the trademarks of Silvio Berlusconi in the heat of an election. The comic-book energy has declined, at 71, to self-acknowledged fatigue. Loose tongued in the best of times, he now says “anything that comes into his head,” one commentator wrote, like proposing mental health screening for prosecutors apparently unhinged enough to charge him with corruption.
Mostly, though, what is gone are the big promises: Italy, he seems to be saying, is so ill that not even the mighty Berlusconi can be sure of curing it. “The cross I will have to bear has never been so heavy, because never has the situation before us been so difficult,” he said last week, the cross being the office of prime minister, which he is seeking for the third time in elections on Sunday and Monday. This man who once said his leadership would herald “a new Italian miracle” now says, “We can’t promise and can’t achieve miracles.” (His fortunes have fallen, if slightly, in other ways. For years Italy’s richest man, he is now listed in Forbes as No. 3.)
Polls consistently show the center-right Mr. Berlusconi ahead, two years after voters ejected him from office in favor of a center-left government that itself collapsed in January. But his carefree behavior — and the remarkable calm of his opponent, Walter Veltroni, the 52-year- old former mayor of Rome — suggests what Italians have long been saying: that this election, no matter who wins, is unlikely to bring much change to an Italy that badly needs it. The broad issue is that Italy seems, in a word in vogue here, “blocked,” its economy again near zero growth, garbage still piling up around Naples, a yearlong effort to sell its troubled airline, Alitalia, seriously hurt this month by its unions, a symbolic victim of the difficulty of making even crucial things happen here.
“The impression is that whether it leans to the left or the right, Italy has a political class that is unable to decide, that doesn’t have the courage to take responsibility for unpopular decisions,” said Antonio Campi, a political science professor at the University of Perugia. “And so the situation has been allowed to deteriorate.” But more specifically, many experts say that despite Mr. Berlusconi’s lead in the polls, the election itself may be inconclusive, largely because of Italy’s electoral law. While Mr. Berlusconi looks likely to win in the lower chamber of Parliament, the Chamber of Deputies, the upper chamber, the Senate, is problematic, since its seats are apportioned under a complex formula based on Italy’s regions.
And at the moment, even Mr. Berlusconi has hinted that he may not be able to win enough seats to govern. Some experts believe Mr. Veltroni’s bloc could actually win the Senate — a situation that would pit the two chambers against each other and create an even worse paralysis. The paradox is that the election law was created by Mr. Berlusconi before the 2006 elections when it looked, correctly, like the center-left would win — and he wanted to make it impossible for it to govern. After that government fell, because of a too-slim majority in the Senate, Mr. Berlusconi rejected changing the law before this election. “It’s a crazy thing,” said Antonio Noto, director of IPR Marketing, an independent polling firm here. “It’s his law. It was created in a different era to make life difficult for the center-left. Now it could be a boomerang.”
In confronting this difficulty, Mr. Berlusconi has acted with typical audacity: This week, he suggested he could give Mr. Veltroni’s new Democratic Party control of one of the parliamentary houses — if the center-left president, Giorgio Napolitano, stepped down. For critics, the proposal confirmed long suspicions that what Mr. Berlusconi really wants is the presidency, an appointed job with power and influence but not the trouble of daily politics. He has also often suggested, though recently backed off on, a German-style grand coalition, in which left and right would govern together. Mr. Veltroni, though, says he rejects that unconditionally. “That’s not going to happen,” he said in an interview in a recent sweep, by bus, through southern Italy.
In his campaign, Mr. Veltroni, an amiable and relaxed politician sometimes accused of trying to accommodate everyone, has sought to disarm Mr. Berlusconi of one of this greatest strengths: a great antipathy for the left as fractured do-nothings, a reputation cemented by the two years of Prime Minister Romano Prodi’s unwieldy nine-party coalition. Last year, the two largest center-left parties fused into the Democratic Party, with Mr. Veltroni as its leader. Then he did something unheard of in Italian politics: He said his new party would run alone without the scores of small, and often extreme, parties that helped make Mr. Prodi’s government untenable. He thus earned enemies on the far left, but, in theory, friends in the center.
How many friends is unclear, but the well-connected and America-loving Mr. Veltroni has relied on his own famous ones to help make his case. He knows Senator Barack Obama, wrote the introduction for the Italian edition for one of the senator’s books and uses him as a model as a fresh young face (though detractors note that he has been in politics for nearly 30 years). “Si puo fare!” — “Yes we can!” — is his slogan. The actor George Clooney, who has a house on Lake Como, stumped for him this week. “He is a great speaker able to lead many people towards a common goal,” Mr. Clooney told reporters in Rome. He compared him with Mr. Obama, saying that Mr. Veltroni “also appeals to the young, he speaks of hope and a clean environment, rare in Italian politics.”
While Mr. Clooney is very popular here, his appearance in some ways underscored a criticism of Mr. Veltroni, that he escorted movie stars around Rome more than doing his job. Mr. Veltroni strongly denies the charge, listing improvements in tourism, jobs and infrastructure. In his campaign, he has made some daring moves — like publicly telling members of organized crime groups not to vote for him — but much of his campaign aims at asking Italy if it really wants Mr. Berlusconi back. He said he could understand a vote for Mr. Berlusconi in 2001, when Mr. Berlusconi did, in fact, win, because he campaigned as a nonpolitician who would shake Italy up. “Italians trusted him,” Mr. Veltroni said in the interview. “He promised everything, low taxes for everyone, anything for anybody. But in the end, he ran the country for five years and nothing happened. Frankly, I don’t get it.”
In a mood of national disgust, many Italians say that neither man represents the change they want. Pollsters say turnout on Sunday and Monday may be one of the lowest in years, and that in a nation where voting remains an important civic virtue. There is a low-grade campaign urging Italians to boycott the elections, also rare here but another sign of deep displeasure. “Nothing is ever going to change, because they gobble up everything,” said Danilo Berre, 30, a salesman in Rome. “I am not going to vote because I don’t believe either in the left or in the right; there is nothing we can do. “We need a new political class, a young one,” he added. “I am sick of these oldies.” BERLUSCONI RECLAIMS POWER IN ITALIAN ELECTIONS International Herald Tribune, 14.04.2008
Silvio Berlusconi, the idiosyncratic billionaire who already dominates much of public life in Italy, snatched back political power in elections that ended Monday, heading a center-right coalition certain to make him prime minister for a third term. But with a bad economy and frustration high that Italy has lost ground to the rest of Europe, it is unclear whether they voted for Berlusconi out of affection or, as many experts said, as the least bad choice after the nation weathered two years of inaction from the fractured center-left government.
While Berlusconi's coalition won a convincing majority in both houses of Parliament, the victory came with much help from the Northern League, which advocates a federal system to favor the more prosperous north. The party caused Berlusconi's first government in 1994 to collapse - a history that center-left leaders made clear in defeat. "A season of opposition now begins against a majority that will have a hard time keeping together things that are difficult to keep together," said Walter Veltroni, the former mayor of Rome and leader of the Democratic Party who ran against Berlusconi. "I don't know how long this majority will last." The Democratic Party will now be the largest in opposition.
Berlusconi, 71, the third richest man in Italy and the owner of a media and sports empire, did not make a victory speech. But in a brief phone call to a national television show Berlusconi, declaring himself "moved" by the victory. "We are always open to working together with the opposition," he said. He will make a fuller statement on Tuesday. The election - called just two years after Berlusconi lost to the now-departing center-left prime minister, Romano Prodi - was considered one of the least exciting in memory, with many Italians doubting that either candidate could actually accomplish any meaningful change.
But in some basic ways, the election signaled a decisive shift in a nation whose politics have been unstable because of the involvement of many small parties with narrow interests. As head of the newly born Democratic Party - the merging of the two largest center-left parties - Veltroni had refused to run with far-left parties as Prodi had done. As a result, the ANSA news agency reported that the number of parties in the Parliament's lower house, the Chamber of Deputies, would drop from 26 to just 6. On both the left and right, experts said - and in some cases lamented - the election showed a shift toward a more American- or British-style system of two dominant parties. "It's a Waterloo," runs Tuesday's headline in the moderate leftist daily Il Riformista.
Its editor, Antonio Polito, a departing senator from the now-defunct Margherita party, said, "The left is disappearing for the first time in history." Referring to Veltroni's party, he added, "The only party that managed to save itself after two disastrous Prodi years is a party that is modeling itself after the Democratic or Labour parties," in the United States and Britain respectively. Berlusconi's spokesman, Paolo Bonaiuti, echoed the analysis. "Italy has rewarded a simplification of the political panorama," Bonaiuti said.
BERLUSCONI 'FEELS GREAT RESPONSIBILITY' AFTER WINNING ELECTION The Independent, 14.04.2008
Conservative media mogul Silvio Berlusconi said today he "feels great responsibility" after winning a third term as Italy's prime minster. Centre-left rival Walter Veltroni conceded defeat after early results from a two-day election projected a big majority in both houses of parliament for the 71-year-old media magnate. "I called the leader of the People of Freedom (PDL), Silvio Berlusconi, to acknowledge his victory and wish him luck," the 52-year-old former mayor of Rome told reporters outside his party's headquarters.
Berlusconi, who has vowed to cut taxes and rein in Italy's huge debt, had been widely expected to win the lower house. But a strong Senate majority would help him push through structural reforms needed to pull Italy away from the brink of recession. Many Italians are deeply disillusioned with politics and doubt any government can quickly cure the ills of the European's Union's fourth-largest economy. Pollsters' projected results, based on early results, gave Berlusconi a 99-seat majority in the 630-member lower house and an advantage of at least 22 seats in the Senate, which has 315 elected and seven lifetime senators. That contrasts with the two-seat majority in the Senate that the last government had under Romano Prodi. Berlusconi had set his sights on a 20-seat majority in the Senate.
His spokesman, Paolo Bonaiuti, called it a "clear and decisive turnaround after the disastrous leftist government" which collapsed in January after 20 months in office. "From tomorrow the PDL will guarantee a stable government with two main objectives: giving Italy back its serenity and getting it out of the decline and back on the road to growth," Bonaiuti said. Many Italians went to the polls to elect their 62nd government since World War Two gloomy about chronic political instability and an economy that has long lagged behind its main partners in the EU.
JP Morgan economist Silvia Pepino described Italy's economic problems as "very long- standing and deep-rooted and it's difficult to see any progress in the near term whatever the outcome of the election." Public morale has been undermined by everything from a garbage crisis in Naples and failed rescue bid for loss-making airline Alitalia to a mozzarella food scare. Economic growth is expected by the International Monetary Fund to slow to 0.3 percent this year and Italy's debt is the third highest in the world. Berlusconi did not speak in public after the end of voting, but expressed "deep satisfaction" in a call to his main ally, National Alliance leader Gianfranco Fini, a party source said.
Berlusconi dominates Italian media through his business empire, Mediaset, Italy's largest private broadcaster, and is rated the country's third richest man by Forbes magazine. He has pledged to slash the debt, cut taxes and liberalise the economy as well as getting tough on crime. But critics say he failed to carry out pledges to revolutionise Italy when prime minister for seven months from April 1994 and from 2001-2006. The election could mark a watershed in Italian politics, with a handful of parties winning seats rather than more than 20 in the last election. Christian Democratic chief Pierferdinando Casini said the next parliament may have only five parties. Political analyst Roberto D'Alimonte told state television this would turn Italy into a "normal" European country, "with just two main parties accounting for over 70 percent of the vote".
BERLUSCONI HEADS TO 3rd STINT AS ITALY'S PRIME MINISTER International Herald Tribune, 14.04.2008
The conservative leader Silvio Berlusconi was headed Monday evening for a return to power as prime minister of Italy, after the center-left leader conceded defeat in national elections. Walter Veltroni, the center-left leader, said he had called Berlusconi to congratulate him because the result was clear, even though the final results were not in yet. Pollsters' projections based on early results from the two-day election showed that the 71-year-old Berlusconi, a media magnate who was prime minister twice before, had a solid parliamentary lead in both the lower house and the Senate. RAI state television projected that Berlusconi's bloc would take 163 Senate seats, ahead of 141 for Veltroni's Democratic Party and allies. The Senate has 315 seats. Berlusconi's bloc also had a 7 percent lead over Veltroni's in the lower house, according to the projections. Under Italy's system, prime ministers must have control of both houses to govern.
Renato Schifani, the outgoing Senate whip for Berlusconi's party, said that the center-right's showing was "better than any forecast." Most analysts breathed a sigh of relief. "These projections put Berlusconi firmly ahead, which raises the chances of a strong government," said Luigi Speranza of BNP Paribas. "That is good news for the economy, so it would be a more favorable outcome for markets than the picture of instability which was on the cards after the exit polls." Berlusconi did not speak in public after the end of voting, but he expressed "deep satisfaction" at his apparent victory in a phone call to his main ally, the National Alliance leader Gianfranco Fini, a party source said.
Berlusconi had been widely expected to win the lower house easily. But a clear victory in the Senate would be an added bonus, strengthening his ability to push through structural reforms needed to pull Italy away from the brink of recession. Analysts saw the result as a rebuff of Romano Prodi's government, which fell after just 20 months in office. The voting Sunday and Monday came amid a widespread sense of national decline and an economic downturn. "I think it was a vote against the performance of the Prodi government, high taxation and the feeling that everything was blocked by the interests of the various political parties," said Franco Pavoncello, a political science professor at John Cabot University. "The only way to get rid of the left is with a Berlusconi government.' Berlusconi had blamed the center-left government for the country's troubles.
Veltroni, a former mayor of Rome, is almost 20 years younger than Berlusconi and had promised deep reform and an ideology-free approach to the country's problems. Berlusconi entered the race as the front-runner, capitalizing on the unpopularity of the Prodi government, whose early collapse forced the vote three years ahead of schedule. But Veltroni appeared to have narrowed the gap, according to polls released before a pre-election ban on publishing polls took effect.
Berlusconi will face Italy's perpetual problem: how to improve the economy, the world's seventh-largest. With the third-highest debt in the world, the Italian economy has underperformed the rest of the euro zone for years, and the International Monetary Fund forecasts growth of 0.3 percent this year, compared with a 1.4 percent average growth for the 15-country euro area. Signs of decline abound, from piles of trash in Naples, to a buffalo mozzarella health scare that has hurt exports and hit one of the country's culinary treasures, to the faltering sale of Alitalia, the state airline. And Italians increasingly blame the governing class - not just one political force or another - for the failure to solve the nation's problems. Berlusconi has pledged to slash the debt, cut taxes and liberalize the economy. He also said he would get tough on crime. With Veltroni making similar promises, some of the 47 million voters had complained that there was little to choose from between the two. Berlusconi failed earlier in his political career to carry out pledges to revolutionize Italy. Berlusconi was prime minister for seven months in 1994 and from 2001 to 2006, and dominates the Italian media via his business empire Mediaset, Italy's largest private broadcaster. Forbes magazine rates him the country's third-richest man. The elections decide 945 parliamentary seats, 630 of those in the lower house. Under the much-criticized Italian election law, a party needs only a relative majority in the lower house - even just a one-vote lead - to win bonus seats securing full control of the chamber. Berlusconi will again have to govern with the populist Northern League and the rightist National Alliance, and some analysts said both would resist the kind of shake-up that the hidebound economy is crying out for.
ITALIE: BERLUSCONI PROCLAME SA VICTOIRE Le Figaro, 14.04.2008
D'après les premières projections, la droite menée par le « Cavaliere » remporterait les deux chambres du Parlement, obtenant au Sénat une large majorité absolue. Le candidat de la gauche Walter Veltroni a reconnu sa défaite.
Les législatives italiennes ont offert un come-back éclatant à Silvio Berlusconi. D'après des projections comme des résultats partiels, l'insubmersible «Cavalière» remporterait, avec une marge plus confortable que prévue, les deux chambres du Parlement. Des résultats partiels officiels portant sur 20% des bureaux de vote de la péninsule montrent que sa coalition de droite, formée du Peuple de la liberté (PDL), de la Ligue du Nord et d'un mouvement autonomiste sicilien, s'imposerait au Sénat avec 45, 47% des voix, contre 40,16% pour la gauche menée par l'ancien maire de Rome Walter Veltroni. D'après les calculs de la Rai, les troupes de Silvio Berlusconi décrocheraient 164 des 315 sièges du Sénat, soit la majorité absolue, contre 139 à la gauche. La droite est également donnée gagnante de 8,8 points à la Chambre des députés.
Fait surprenant, le milliardaire s'est fait très discret et n'est pas apparu à la télévision. Proclamant sa victoire, sans attendre les résultats définitifs des élections qui devraient tomber mardi au plus tard, il a même annoncé que «des mois difficiles» attendaient les Italiens. Au cours de cette interview téléphonique, accordée à la Rai Uno, il a précisé la composition de son gouvernement, qui réunira douze ministres dont quatre femmes. Pour son troisième mandat en tant que président du Conseil italien, Silvio Berlusconi a martelé que son nouveau cabinet restera aux affaires jusqu'àu terme de ses fonctions dans cinq ans, ajoutant ressentir une grande responsabilité à l'idée de reprendre les rênes de l'Italie. Sa large avance, qui lui assure un gouvernement stable, a un goût de revanche. Lors des législatives de 2006, seulement 24.000 voix d'écart lui ont ravi la victoire. De son côté le leader de la gauche italienne Walter Veltroni a reconnu sa défaite, estimant que le résultat était «clair» et a téléphoné à son rival victorieux pour le féliciter.
Berlusconi : «Je suis prêt à porter la croix du gouvernement»
Le score décevant de la gauche au Sénat est une surprise pour les observateurs qui, sur la base des dernières enquêtes d'opinion publiées il y a deux semaines, misaient sur un match serré à la Chambre haute et une meilleure tenue de la gauche. L'héritage de 20 mois de gouvernement Prodi aura été trop lourd à porter. Etalées sur deux jours, de dimanche matin à lundi 15 heures, les législatives italiennes se sont déroulées sur fond de malaise dans un pays plombé par un brusque ralentissement de la croissance et confronté successivement à la crise des ordures à Naples et à la faillite d'Alitalia. Le taux de participation a certes dépassé 80% mais cela constitue une baisse de 3,5% par rapport au scrutin de 2006.
S'il a montré qu'il a retrouvé un peu de pugnacité vers la fin de la campagne, l'une des plus ennuyeuses de ces dernières années, Silvio Berlusconi s'est bien gardé de faire cette fois des promesses inconsidérées alors que l'Italie est en panne de croissance. Conscient des difficultés qui l'attendent et accusant la gauche d'»avoir mis le pays à genoux», il a affirmé être « le seul capable et être prêt à porter la croix» du nouveau gouvernement, annonçant des «sacrifices» aux Italiens.
ITALIE: SILVIO BERLUSCONI OBTIENT UNE LARGE VICTOIRE AUX LÉGISLATIVES Le Monde, 14.04.2008
Le conservateur Silvio Berlusconi a obtenu, lundi 14 avril, un troisième mandat de président du Conseil, avec une majorité plus forte que prévu. Son adversaire de centre-gauche, Walter Veltroni, a reconnu sa défaite à l'issue des élections organisées dimanche et lundi. "J'ai appelé le dirigeant du Peuple de la liberté, Silvio Berlusconi, afin de reconnaître sa victoire et lui souhaiter bonne chance dans ses fonctions" , a déclaré M. Veltroni, ancien maire de Rome, aux journalistes, devant le siège de son parti.
Les résultats définitifs publiés mardi matin donnent au Peuple de la liberté (PDL) – nouvelle alliance de centre-droit du "Cavaliere" – une victoire sans ambiguïté à la Chambre des députés et au Sénat. D'après ces résultats, qui ne comptent pas les résultats dans le Val d'Aoste et des Italiens de l'étranger, la coalition de droite dirigée par M. Berlusconi obtient 47,32 % des voix au Sénat contre 38,01 % au centre-gauche de Walter Veltroni. En termes de sièges, la droite obtient donc la majorité absolue – 168 sur 315 – enjeu crucial du scrutin, car le contrôle du Sénat est indispensable pour gouverner. M. Berlusconi est également largement gagnant à la Chambre des députés, avec 46,8 % des voix, contre 37,5 % à la gauche, ce qui lui assure 340 sièges sur 617.
M. BERLUSCONI ANNONCE "DES MOIS DIFFICILES"
Silvio Berlusconi a salué sa victoire en intervenant, par téléphone, lors de deux émissions télévisées lundi soir : "Oui nous avons gagné, et c'est ce que je n'ai cessé de dire pendant toute la campagne électorale", a-il déclaré. "Je vais gouverner pendant cinq ans" , a-t-il affirmé, annonçant "des mois difficiles" qui "demanderaient un grand courage" de la part des Italiens.
Ce sera la troisième fois que M. Berlusconi, 71 ans, accèdera au pouvoir. En avril 2006, après un mandat de cinq ans et un bilan controversé, le magnat des médias avait été battu par son vieil adversaire de gauche Romano Prodi. Pour son premier scrutin national, Walter Veltroni, 52 ans, a rassemblé 38,01 % des voix au Sénat et 37,5 % à la Chambre, alors qu'il portait le lourd héritage des vingt mois du gouvernement Prodi, qui a battu des records d'impopularité et dont l'image a été ternie par la crise des ordures à Naples.
BON SCORE DE LA LIGUE DU NORD
La Ligue du Nord (régionaliste, xénophobe et antieuropéenne) réalise un score bien meilleur qu'en 2006 en recueillant 8,1 % des voix au Sénat, contre 4,4 % aux dernières législatives. Le chef de la Ligue, Umberto Bossi, qui avait récemment menacé de "prendre les fusils contre la canaille romaine", a cherché à rassurer lundi soir : "Berlusconi est un ami. Nous avons respecté notre parole, il ne sera jamais otage [de la Ligue]. "
Alliée du parti de M. Veltroni, l'Italie des valeurs (IDV) de l'ancien juge anticorruption Antonio Di Pietro (2,8 % en 2006) obtient 4,3 % des voix au Sénat, selon Ipsos. La Gauche arc-en-ciel (communistes et Verts) a été laminée, ne recueillant que 3,1 % des voix à la Chambre contre 10,2 % en 2006. Par rapport aux dernières législatives de 2006, la participation a baissé de 3,5 points à un peu plus de 80 %, selon le ministère de l'intérieur. C'est la deuxième fois que les Italiens retournaient aux urnes en l'espace de deux ans pour des législatives. Ces élections anticipées avaient été provoquées par la chute, fin janvier, du gouvernement Prodi.
BERLUSCONI WINS ITALIAN ELECTIONS EU Observer, 15.04.2008
Silvio Berlusconi has won the parliamentary elections in Italy, vowing to lead the country through the "difficult" years ahead. According to early results confirmed by the country's interior ministry, Mr Berlusconi's centre-right coalition took 46.5 percent of the vote in the lower house Chamber of Deputies against 38 percent won by the centre-left party led by Rome's mayor Walter Veltroni. Reacting to the news of his victory in a telephone interview with the Italian public TV Rai on Monday night (14 April), Mr Berlusconi said, "The months and years ahead will be difficult and I am preparing a government ready to last five years."
Among his top and most timely priorities, the media tycoon and rich businessman mentioned the sale of the state-controlled Italy's airline Alitalia as well as tackling a long-standing garbage crisis in Naples. But analysts suggest his key test will be healing his country's deep economic problems, epitomized by a public debt bigger than Italy's gross domestic product, and gloomy growth projections for the coming years. Critics point out that he had already failed to address similar economic challenges during his two previous terms as Italy's prime minister, first only for seven months in 1994 and then between 2001 and 2006.
Although he may have an advantage of around 99 seats in the 630-member lower house and up to 30 seats in the 322-strong Senate, compared to the two-seat Senate majority of the centre-left outgoing government, Mr Berlusconi's coalition is expected to have some different views on economy. His junior coalition partner, the anti-immigration Northern League - which doubled its votes on Sunday and Monday election to around 8 percent - previously proved rather protectionist while the would-be prime minister has said he wants liberalize Italy's economy. Mr Berlusconi said he is planning to form a cabinet with 12 ministers, including four women. Franco Frattini, currently EU justice commissioner, is to become his foreign minister while Giulio Tremonti will be appointed as economy minister.
European credentials
Following the previous experiences with the eccentric centre-right politician, some in Europe are also expecting tough or at least colourful times with Italy under Mr Berlusconi's leadership. In 2003, Italy made the most unusual opening of its six-month EU presidency when the prime minister told German Socialist MEP Martin Schulz, currently the chief of the centre-left group in the European Parliament, that he should play the role of the kapo (guard) in an Italian film about concentration camps.
More gaffes followed as he was quoted as making the case for investing in Italy at the New York Stock Exchange by arguing he believes the country's secretaries are "beautiful" and "superb girls". Similarly, he caused a diplomatic row with Finland in 2005, after telling the press he had used all his "playboy skills and courted the Finnish President" Tarja Halonen to get Helsinki's support for a plan to set up the European Food Authority in Italy.
Mr Berlusconi's records also include pre-election rhetoric against the euro, referring to the single European currency as a "disaster" and a "rip-off" that "screwed everybody" in an attack in 2005 on the then opposition leader and former European Commission president, Romano Prodi. In a previous poll which he had lost to Mr Prodi, he had spiced up his fight for votes by promising to abstain from sex until after election day, or comparing himself to Churchill, Napoleon and Jesus Christ. Following his victory last night after a somewhat less controversial campaign, Mr Berlusconi finished off his TV interview by sending "an affectionate kiss to all Italians."
LE TROISIÈME MANDAT DE SILVIO BERLUSCONI EN ITALIE EST TIRÉ À DROITE PAR LA LIGUE DU NORD Le Monde, 15.04.2008
Le berlusconisme est désormais durablement enraciné en Italie. Pour la troisième fois en quinze ans, ce mouvement, considéré comme un accident de l'histoire à sa naissance en 1993, est validé par une majorité d'Italiens. Pour Silvio Berlusconi, 71 ans, sur le point de retrouver le pouvoir après la nette victoire de sa coalition aux élections législatives anticipées des 13 et 14 avril, les deux années de gouvernement Prodi, de 2006 à 2008, n'auront été qu'une parenthèse.
Nicolas Sarkozy a adressé mardi ses "plus vives félicitations" à Silvio Berlusconi pour sa victoire aux élections législatives italiennes. "Mon intention est d'engager avec vous et votre futur gouvernement une concertation très étroite, notamment pour préparer la présidence française de l'Union européenne", au second semestre 2008, écrit le président français. "Alors que nous avons des intérêts convergents sur la plupart des dossiers européens, l'appui de votre pays (...) sera éminemment décisif", ajoute-t-il. "Je me réjouis de la possibilité qui nous est ainsi donnée d'approfondir encore les liens traditionnels d'amitié et de coopération qui unissent nos deux pays", écrit encore M. Sarkozy. Le président termine sa lettre en exprimant à Silvio Berlusconi sa "très haute considération", avec la mention "et amicale" rajoutée à la main. – (Avec Reuters.)
"Une interruption négative de notre travail" , a-t-il commenté, "ému" par le résultat. Le Peuple de la liberté (PDL, droite) est le premier parti à la Chambre des députés (37,4 %). Avec son allié populiste de la Ligue du Nord (8,3 %) et l'appoint d'un petit parti autonomiste dans le Sud (MPA), la coalition de droite obtient 46,8 % des suffrages, contre 37,6 % à l'alliance entre le Parti démocrate (DL, centre gauche), qui compte 33,2 % des voix, et l'Italie des valeurs (IDV, centre gauche) de l'ancien magistrat Antonio Di Pietro (4,4 %). En sièges, Silvio Berlusconi peut compter sur 340 députés contre 239 au centre gauche, 36 à l'Union du centre (UDC).
Silvio Berlusconi a aussi remporté le Sénat, avec un écart bien plus ample que prévu par les observateurs. "Cette loi électorale n'était pas si mauvaise" , a ironisé "Il Cavaliere" en constatant qu'il aurait 168 sénateurs contre 130 au centre gauche. Le PDL arrive en tête avec 38,2 % (141 sièges). La Ligue du Nord (8,1 %, 25 sièges) double son score précédent. Le Parti démocrate, avec 33,7 % des voix, aura 116 sénateurs, l'Italie des valeurs 14et l'UDC seulement trois.
Mais la vraie surprise de ces élections n'est pas le retour triomphal de Silvio Berlusconi, largement annoncé par les sondages dès la chute du gouvernement Prodi, le 24 janvier. La nouveauté réside dans la métamorphose du paysage politique. Seulement cinq partis nationaux seront représentés dans le prochain Parlement contre une bonne trentaine lors de la précédente législature : le PDL et la Ligue du Nord à droite ; le Parti démocrate et l'IDV au centre gauche ; enfin, l'Union du centre (UDC, démocrate chrétien) qui maintient ses scores habituels (5,6 % et 5,7 %). Elle aura 36 députés et 3 sénateurs.
Pour la première fois depuis la naissance de la République italienne, socialistes, communistes et Verts sont portés disparus au Parlement, où seules les petites formations régionalistes du Trentin Haut-Adige et de la Vallée d'Aoste récupèrent quelques miettes (trois députés et huit sénateurs). Le responsable de ce "massacre des nanetti" (petits nains) s'appelle Walter Veltroni. La décision du secrétaire du Parti démocrate de partir seul (ou presque) aux urnes, sans les encombrants alliés de l'ex-coalition Prodi, a précipité la simplification de la carte politique. L'Italie s'est mise en situation de bipolarisation ; il reste à graver dans la loi le nouvel échiquier sorti des urnes.
COMPOSER AVEC LES EXIGENCES DE LA LIGUE DU NORD
Le centre gauche s'est déclaré disponible pour un dialogue "sur les réformes dont le pays a besoin" . Celle de la loi électorale, ainsi que quelques retouches constitutionnelles. "Nous avons toujours été prêts à travailler avec l'opposition pour les intérêts du pays" , a répondu Silvio Berlusconi. Mais pour gouverner, "Il Cavaliere" a les mains libres. Son futur exécutif "comprendra quatre femmes" , a-t-il indiqué. Le commissaire européen à l'immigration, Franco Frattini, retrouverait le portefeuille des affaires étrangères. Son principal allié, Gianfranco Fini, dont le parti Alliance nationale (droite conservatrice) doit se fondre avec Forza Italia dans le nouveau PDL, se verrait confier la présidence de la Chambre des députés.
Dans les priorités rappelées lundi soir par Silvio Berlusconi figurent les dossiers urgents de la privatisation d'Alitalia et la crise des ordures à Naples, mais aussi les réformes de l'école et de la santé interrompues en 2006 par l'arrivée du centre gauche au pouvoir, ainsi que la relance d'une politique de grands travaux. Mais le contexte économique international incite Silvio Berlusconi à maintenir une approche modeste à l'issue d'une campagne où il n'a pas promis de miracles. "Ce seront des années difficiles, a-t-il averti. Ce seront cinq années décisives pour la modernisation du pays." Pour Il Corriere della Sera , "le vrai miracle est qu'il s'est fait accepter par les Italiens en se présentant comme un futur chef du gouvernement sans baguette magique" .
M. Berlusconi devra toutefois composer avec les exigences de la Ligue du Nord, notamment en matière de fédéralisme fiscal et de lutte contre l'immigration clandestine. Le gouvernement sera-t-il "conditionné" par cet allié incommode, comme le pronostique Walter Veltroni ? Le petit parti populiste et xénophobe a confirmé son ancrage profond dans le nord du pays, en obtenant des scores allant jusqu'à 35 % dans ses fiefs du Nord-Est. Pour l'eurodéputé de la Ligue, Mario Borghezio, "c'est un résultat déterminant pour tous les équilibres à venir" .
ELECTION VICTORY GIVES BERLUSCONI A SECOND CHANCE TO LEAVE MARK ON ITALY International Herald Tribune, 16.04.2008 Silvio Berlusconi has another chance to leave his mark on Italy after winning a thumping mandate at the helm of a streamlined coalition. But the charismatic media magnate has scored spectacular electoral successes in the past on promises to be the nation's savior — only to disappoint. Some fear that, once again, he might pander to his political base and cronies rather than confront Italy's deepening woes. As congratulations came pouring in, including from the U.S. President George W. Bush and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Berlusconi said Tuesday he will waste no time in getting to work.
He vowed to slim the Cabinet to 12 ministers, half the number in the outgoing center-left government, and push structural and economic reforms. He has also been preparing a list of priorities, starting with cleaning the trash off the streets of Naples. "I want to go down in the history of this country as the statesman who changed it," Berlusconi said in remarks phone in to Italian television shows after his victory. He certainly has the numbers to implement his agenda — if he so chooses. He has a significant majority in both houses of a parliament that for the first time since World War II does not include the Communist Party — once Western Europe's largest — or Socialists — who had been in endless governments for decades.
Berlusconi's conservative bloc commands a majority of about 40 seats in the Senate (compared to his predecessor Romano Prodi's one-seat lead) and an advantage of some 100 lawmakers in the lower house. The coalition is also, at least on paper, more cohesive as it has lost a centrist ally that proved troublesome in the past. But Berlusconi will still face demands from the volatile Northern League party, which had a better-than-expected showing and is crucial to ensure a Senate majority — giving it critical leverage. The League brought Berlusconi down in 1994, but proved a faithful ally years later during the billionaire's second stint as premier. "Now we need to implement reforms, if not we will lose our patience," Northern League leader Umberto Bossi said in an interview with Turin-based La Stampa.
Berlusconi has refrained from gloating and instead is maintaining a sober tone. "Difficult months and years await us, and I'm getting ready to govern with the utmost commitment," Berlusconi said hours after his victory. Italy is verging on recession — if it is not there already — with consumer spending at a low and zero growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund this year. And the European Union is pushing Italy toward further budget consolidation. While business leaders said the clear majority gives Berlusconi room to push through necessary reforms without political compromise, some analysts feared that the margin of victory will simply allow Berlusconi to do as he pleases.
In his last government, he was a free-spender to boost the economy — and he could go that route again in search for quick fixes. "I think he is going to be more closely watched this time," said Barcelona-based economist Edward Hughes. "If there are any signs that Berlusconi is not going to introduce reforms and is going to simply pander to the electoral base and spend more money, I think the financial markets can start to put pressure on Italy." In Brussels, EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia has already urged Italy to follow Prodi's "extremely successful" debt-cutting efforts. In 2001, Berlusconi won a mandate with promises of delivering a "new economic miracle." But critics accused him of spending most of his time passing laws to boost his business interests and help him escape criminal prosecution. He reformed labor and pension systems but the measures were watered down following union protests and analysts said they did not go far enough.
In the end, his record during the five-year term was largely seen as a disappointing. Berlusconi said Monday that he's a different self from 2001 "because by now I know everything and I can prioritize things." To implement his goal of deep reform, Berlusconi is not only looking at the economy. He says that Italy's image, so tainted by the Naples trash crisis, needs to be restored, and its international profile raised. He insists Italy cannot afford not having a national carrier and says that if Alitalia ended up in the hands of Air France- KLM it would hurt the national tourism industry. Berlusconi is also looking at the decision- making process in parliament and at the costs associated with keeping up the political machine. He wants to reform parliament by cutting the number of lawmakers (currently almost 1,000 between the two houses) and have laws approved only by one house rather than two. He wants to cut spending by eliminating provincial governments. "There is a clear majority and Berlusconi has no alibis this time," former ally Pier Ferdinando Casini said.
ITALY'S BITTERNESS COULD BLIGHT BERLUSCONI Financial Times, 17.04.2008
Silvio Berlusconi may have won the elections held in Italy last Sunday and Monday, but he did not win the popular vote. His new centre-right coalition party - The People of Liberty - did better than any other in the contest, capturing 37.4 per cent of the popular vote against 33.2 per cent for the Democratic Party on the centre-left. But in absolute terms, Mr Berlusconi's coalition did much worse than the separate parties he cobbled together did when standing alone in 2006.
Just over 13.6m Italians voted for The People of Liberty this time; last time, Mr Berlusconi's Forza Italia got slightly more than 9m votes, his principal allies in the formerly fascist National Alliance got 4.7m, Alternativa Sociale, the more explicitly post-fascist movement headed by Mussolini's grand-daughter Alessandra, got 250,000 votes, and Clemente Mastella's Popular Party got500,000 votes standing as part of the centre-left. In other words, the new Berlusconi came up almost 850,000 votes short. Italy's new Democratic Party did not do any better and may have done worse. The Democratic Party garnered just over 12m votes this time around and the Olive Tree coalition that preceded it managed to win just under 12m the last. But in the meantime, the Democratic Party has added the left-libertarian Radical Party to the Olive Tree, which means it should have added almost 1m votes as well. That did not happen. Moreover, there is no evidence that these voters have found some other home on the centre-left.
The Rainbow-Left coalition of greens and former communists lost more than 2m votes. The more exotic leftwing protest movements (of which there are too many to count, let alone try to name) failed to win many supporters either. And while it is true that turnout is about 3 per cent lower, that only accounts for about 1.5m of the votes that should have been cast. So where can we find Italy's 2m missing voters? Almost two-thirds of them voted for a regional protest party called the Lega Nord (or Northern League). In fact, the Lega Nord is the only clear winner at the polls this time out, having received slightly more than 3m votes compared with 1.7m in 2006. If Mr Berlusconi won the election, it is primarily because the Lega Nord is in an electoral alliance with The People of Liberty and his majority in both chambers of the Italian parliament will depend on the Lega Nord's support.
The Lega Nord has been around for more than a decade, but it has not been this popular since it made its breakthrough during Italy's political crisis of the early-to-mid 1990s. As its name would suggest, the party's stronghold is in the industrial heartland of Northern Italy and the most consistent part of its platform is a demand for greater autonomy from the south. This demand for autonomy is not the reason for its current success. The Lega Nord is also as long on anti-immigrant rhetoric as it is short on patience with free trade. Moreover, the Lega Nord's leaders have a reputation for challenging the state when frustrated with the policies set in Rome. At one point during the campaign, Umberto Bossi, the party's leader, suggested he might have to take up arms over the design of the ballot papers, leading to embarrassed mutterings in the Berlusconi camp and calls for a declaration of loyalty to the Republic from the centre-left.
The attraction of this anti-immigrant, anti-globalisation, anti-authority rhetoric is easy to see in the data. The number of Lega Nord supporters has doubled in the big northern cities such as Milan (140,000 to 280,000) and Turin (64,000 to 120,000). In Venice, the Lega Nord has become the city's largest political party, increasing from 222,000 to 523,000 votes. Moreover, even the more traditionally left-leaning cities in the centre of Italy are coming under the influence of the Lega Nord. While still less than 5 per cent of the electorate, the population of Lega Nord supporters in formerly communist heartlands such as Bologna and Florence has doubled as well - from 16,000 to 32,000 in Bologna; and from 27,000 to 48,000 in Florence.
Such sudden increases are more likely to be a sign of frustration and bitterness than any lasting affection for Italy's xenophobic far right. With the economy turning down, a series of law-and-order problems that people tend to associate with recent immigrants and a general insecurity about Italy's chances in the global economic competition, Italians have a lot of reasons to be frustrated that their politicians seem so unable to come up with solutions and to be bitter about how difficult it is to see any real changeover in the political ruling class. Mr Berlusconi comes to power riding this wave of bitterness and frustration and more beholden to the Lega Nord than ever before. Whatever the appearance that he has won a decisive victory, Mr Berlusconi should look for ways to work effectively with the opposition before this wave of bitterness engulfs his government just as thoroughly as it washed over the last.