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Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center Northwest Weather & Avalanche Center 2009-2010 Annual Report Report prepared by Mark Moore, Kenny Kramer and Garth Ferber A partnership between the USDA Forest Service, Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission, National Park Service, National Weather Service, Pacific Northwest Ski Area Association, Ski Washington, Washington State Department of Transportation, Washington State Snowpark and Snowmobile Programs, USDA Forest Service Fee Demo programs, Title II RAC programs, Ski Schools, Friends of the Avalanche Center and others. Forest Service United States Department of Pacific Agriculture Northwest Region Cover Photo credits: The Friends of the Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center (FOAC) board worked long and hard (especially Jorie Wackerman and Benj Wadsworth) with Web Collective and NWAC staff to design and implement a new internet portal for NWAC forecasts, data, and avalanche, weather and snowpack related information. The site was paid for and is being administered by FOAC (who also benefit from the advertising revenues), with NWAC supplying much of the informational content. Although the new site utilized during the 2009-10 season was a huge step forward, it still only represents version 1.0 or maybe 1.1. Increased functionality of this popular web site is expected by the 2010-11 winter when users should be able to request archived forecasts or data from many past seasons via a user friendly interface. Depending on the cost for the data and forecast retrieval interface, some site specific mobile apps (mobile phones now constitute about 10% of site usage) may also be available, as well as graphical output of data, and a transition from the danger level table to danger roses in the detailed avalanche products. Among other planned enhancements, regions having similar avalanche forecasts will also be visually highlighted on the main map mouse-over, while a danger rose indicating the highest danger level in that area for the day should pop up with a mouse-over of any region, along with a daily danger trend arrow. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Cover Photo credits:................................................................................................................... 2 A MESSAGE FROM THE DIRECTOR.................................................................................. 5 NWAC MISSION STATEMENT ............................................................................................. 7 OPERATIONS SUMMARY...................................................................................................... 7 INFORMATION EXCHANGE ................................................................................................ 8 2009-2010 WEATHER AND AVALANCHE SUMMARY .................................................. 10 AVALANCHE ACCIDENTS AND TRENDS ....................................................................... 14 US And North American Statistics......................................................................................... 14 Northwest Statistics ................................................................................................................ 16 PRODUCT DISSEMINATION AND EDUCATION............................................................ 20 Review of recent web site traffic:........................................................................................... 20 Selected Web Site Statistics for 2009/10:............................................................................... 22 WEATHER STATION NETWORK ...................................................................................... 26 FOAC AND OTHER PRIVATE SUPPORT ......................................................................... 29 New Website........................................................................................................................... 29 NW Snow and Avalanche Summit (NSAS) ........................................................................... 30 Northwest Snow and Avalanche Workshop (NSAW)............................................................ 31 Snowbash................................................................................................................................ 32 Vertfest ................................................................................................................................... 32 Snowball ................................................................................................................................. 33 NWAC BUDGET AND FUTURE........................................................................................... 33 NWAC STAFF.......................................................................................................................... 40 THE LAST WORD...................................................................................................................40 LIST OF ACRONYMS USED ................................................................................................ 41 3 List of Figures Figure 1. Pacific Northwest daily seasonal Snowdepths, 2009-10............................................ 10 Figure 2. Klawatti South Face Avalanche, North Cascades National Park - May 5, 2010, John Scurlock ...................................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 3. Days with warnings or special statements by year...................................................... 13 Figure 4. NWAC days with warnings or special statements by month versus normal. ............. 13 Figure 5. North American Avalanche Fatalities by year, 1985-2010......................................... 14 Figure 6. US annual avalanche fatalities by year, 1950-2010. ................................................... 14 Figure 7. US avalanche fatalities by activity category, 2009-10. .............................................. 14 Figure 8. ENSO event versus Anuual Avalanche Fatalities....................................................... 15 Figure 9. ENSO event versus Annual Fatality Change--US % change by state......................... 16 Figure 10. NW avalanche fatalities by month, 1974-2010......................................................... 17 Figure 11. NW avalanche accidents and fatalities by month, 1996-2010. ................................. 17 Figure 12. Northwest Fatal Avalanche Accidents by danger level, 1996-2010. ....................... 17 Figure 13. NW Avalanche Fatalities by season, 1950-2010. ..................................................... 18 Figure 14. Fatalities caused by natural disaster in Washington State, 1950-2008. .................... 19 Figure 15. Data and forecast product dissemination by year, 1995-2009. ................................. 20 Figure 16. Annual plot of weekly page views (in millions) on NWAC web site, 2004-2009 ... 21 Figure 17. Newly installed Hurricane Ridge precipitation and snowdepth station .................... 26 Figure 18. Map of mountain weather stations cooperatively maintained by NWAC. ............... 28 Figure 19. NWAC―Projected FY10 Expenses ......................................................................... 39 Figure 20. NWAC―Projected FY10 Income ............................................................................ 39 List of Tables Table 1. Annual US Avalanche fatalities by state, 1985-2010................................................... 19 Table 2. Top Referring sites to NWAC web site....................................................................... 23 Table 3. Top accessed products from within graphical portion of web site, 2009-10................ 24 Table 4. 2009/10 Avalanche Education efforts by NWAC & FOAC staff. ............................... 26 Table 5. NWAC avalanche education efforts by season, 1996/97 thru 2009/10........................ 26 Table 6. Northwest Snow and Avalanche Summit agenda......................................................... 30 Table 7. Sources of Funding for FY10 and FY11; Total direct and indirect funding. ............... 38 4 A MESSAGE FROM THE DIRECTOR After some very robust storms in late October and early November of this strong El Niño winter produced a 2-4 ft snowpack in many PNW mountain locations and an associated significant increase in avalanche danger, the NWAC started daily forecasting operation on November 10, the second earliest start for regular forecasts since NWAC’s inception in 1975. The earliest start was in another El Niño driven winter, 1994-95 when NWAC began issuing special statements on November 1, and went to daily operation on November 10. In any case, the strong storms allowed many NW ski areas to open very early, which helped assuage fears typically associated with El Niño. This prompted thoughts that led to an early season poem: You’ve heard it before, El Niño winter ahead— Some may start shrieking, and approach it with dread. “The storms will go elsewhere, dwindling rivers unfed— Reservoirs will wither, powder is dead!” Yet history shows, all is not lost— We’ve had some good winters, though at some cost. Unusual weather means unusual danger— Avalanches in places where they may be a stranger. Though overall it may be warmer and drier— The number of accidents could be higher. Whether driven by weather or impatient travels— Ensure that it’s not your trip that unravels. Watch the snowpack as it begins to develop-- Or else it’s you that the slide will envelop. However, following this early season bounty of deep snows and November powder, the effects of a strengthening southern
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