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ii Abstract In 2002, people around the world were shocked and confused when Jean-Marie Le Pen, who had previously polled at fifth or sixth, beat Lionel Jospin, established politician and incumbent Prime Minister, for a spot in the second round of the French presidential election. Years later, in 2016, a similar electoral surprise occurred in the United States. While many assumed that Hillary Clinton would be the next President, Donald Trump won the Electoral College vote, and therefore the presidency. There is a trend in these cases that unexpected candidates can have common successes. This project examines how and why the symbiosis of populism and media coverage contributed to these electoral surprises. While news media outlets outwardly discounted and spoke negatively about Le Pen and Trump, promoting the assumption they had no chance of winning, their focus on issues these candidates held strong positions on, such as insecurity and economics, as well as the large volume of coverage they gave these candidates, contributed to these candidates’ successes. Though it is not common, every once in a while, it appears that news media, without any input from the candidates, can have a real impact on election results through their symbiosis with populist movements, specifically through outwardly saying one thing about the candidates while having a different effect on them. This thesis labels these situations as “pop-elections.” Through a mix of content analysis of 25 news articles from each case and discourse analysis of other key texts, this project examines the U.S. 2016 presidential election and France 2002 presidential election as case studies for how the news media’s coverage of the populist candidates’ controversial statements and policies amplified their messages and helped them be seen by voters as valid candidates they should consider voting for. iii Contents Introduction 1 Literature Review 6 Methodology 22 Chapter 1 Insecurity in Immigration, Terrorism, and Crime 26 Chapter 2 Concerns and Insecurity through the Lens of Economic Issues 38 Chapter 3 Cycle of Controversy: Personality and Validity of Candidates 47 Chapter 4 The Element of Surprise 65 Conclusion 73 Bibliography 76 Appendix A France 2002 Presidential Election Article Selection 83 Appendix B U.S. 2016 Presidential Election Article Selection 85 iv List of Figures Figure 1: U.S. 2016 Policies 28 Figure 2: U.S. 2016 Insecurity Sub-Topics 29 Figure 3: France 2002 Policies 32 Figure 4: France 2002 Insecurity Sub-Topics 33 Figure 5: U.S. 2016 Econ Sub-Topics 35 Figure 6: France 2002 Econ Sub-Topics 36 Figure 7: U.S. 2016 Personality/Policy Overall 42 Figure 8: U.S. 2016 Personality/Policy 43 Figure 9: U.S. 2016 Candidate Mentions 45 Figure 10: U.S. 2016 Validity – Trump 46 Figure 11: France 2002 Personality/Policy Overall 48 Figure 12: France 2002 Personality/Policy 49 Figure 13: France 2002 Candidate Mentions 52 Figure 14: France 2002 Validity – Le Pen 54 1 Introduction In 2002, many French people, as well as much of the world, were shocked and confused when Jean-Marie Le Pen, who had previously polled at fifth or sixth, beat Lionel Jospin, established politician and incumbent Prime Minister, for a spot in the second round of the presidential election. How could someone so controversial and inexperienced, who barely made it onto the ballot, make it so far in the race for President? Many scholars agree that during the French presidential election of 2002, the major surprise was that Le Pen, a far-Right populist candidate, beat the established and politically experienced Jospin and moved on to the second round of the election.1 Years later, in 2016, a similar electoral surprise hit the United States. While many people assumed that Hillary Clinton would be the next President, Donald Trump, a businessman with far-right views on immigration, national security, and other key issues, won the Electoral College vote. Unlike the France 2002 case, this election gave Trump the presidency.2 In the U.S., political scientists argue that presidential election results are typically predictable based on factors such as public opinion, the state of the economy, and the incumbent party.3 None of these typical factors worked in favor of Donald Trump, so how did he win? There is a trend in these cases of unexpected candidates having common success. This project examines how media and populism contributed to these electoral surprises, through encouraging candidates’ larger-than-life, controversial personalities, spreading and contributing to discourses surrounding insecurity, such as crime, immigration, and 1 Maarek, “Introduction,” 5-9. 2 Warner and Bystrom, “Introduction,” 1-2. 3 Campbell, “The Fundamentals in US Presidential Elections,” 73-74. 2 terrorism, as well as economic issues, and sharing predictions that these candidates had no chance of winning. Though it is not common, every once in a while, it appears that the media, without any input from the candidates, are able to have a real impact on the presidential election results through their symbiosis with populist movements. This thesis will label these elections as “pop-elections,” acknowledging the element of surprise that many voters may have felt because of the controversies and populist discourses that the news media were so attracted to, as well as popular culture connotations that this phrase includes. While some people may assume that Trump and Le Pen did well in their respective elections just because they were able to connect with working-class people or persuade voters that their outrageous policies were actually doable, this is not necessarily the case, and this paper will explore the more detailed dynamics that appear to have taken place during these elections. This project will specifically examine the U.S. 2016 presidential election and France 2002 presidential election as case studies to explore how media coverage combined with populist candidates and discourses contributed to election results that many voters found surprising in these elections. Ultimately, it will argue that the media’s coverage of the populist candidates’ controversial statements and policies amplified their messages and helped them be seen by voters as valid candidates, even when the media coverage was negative or critical. Defining Populism Before discussing the background information and literature about each of these two cases, it is necessary to define what exactly populism refers to in this paper, as well as what its role was in these two presidential elections. This project defines populism as a political movement through which politicians appeal to ordinary people and convince 3 them that they can best address their needs and values. Populism allows democracy to “return to the people” through focusing on the issues that politicians believe people should care most about or are concerned about. Both left and right-wing populism exists around the world, and while all populism focuses on bringing together the people and pitting them against an enemy, there are distinguishing factors between these two different branches of populism.4 This “enemy” that is set up as being harmful to “the people” is the main difference between left and right populists. Right populists describe the enemy as something that weakens the nation, such as groups of outsiders like terrorists and immigrants or the “establishment,” which includes corrupt politicians and big corporations. Left populists typically consider the enemy to be the structures and institutions that prevent self-determination.5 Both Donald Trump and Jean-Marie Le Pen fall into the category of right-wing populists. During their respective elections, both candidates appealed to ordinary people and their needs while also pitting them against an enemy. These candidates convinced many voters that they should be concerned about the issues they specialized in and therefore that they were the best choice for President. They focused on policies related to issues of insecurity, such as immigration, terrorism, crime, and economics, through which they appealed to the people. Furthermore, these candidates labeled “enemies,” including immigrants, terrorists, corrupt government members, and more. They convinced ordinary people that they could save them from these enemies and provide them with a more successful and secure nation. More information about what scholars say about different theories and types of populism will be discussed in the literature review section, though 4 Zabala, “The Difference between Right and Left-Wing Populism.” 5 Gandesha, “Understanding Right and Left Populisms.” 4 this definition of populism is what this project’s study and analysis will primarily focus on. Additionally, the role of populism in the U.S. 2016 and France 2002 elections, as well as how the populist discourses were amplified by the media coverage of the elections, will continue to be explored throughout the analysis of the study. Background Information In order to understand how these two cases evolved and why they caused so much surprise, it is important to discuss the electoral systems and role of news media and populism in each country, as well as what scholars cite as having influenced these two electoral surprises. The electoral processes and roles of the Presidents in France and the United States both compare and contrast, and between 2002 and 2016, the media landscape significantly changed, which generally affected political communications. In France, about 60 candidates typically run for President in the first round, which is then narrowed down to two candidates in the second round. On the other hand, in the U.S., far fewer people run for the position.6 In the United States, the Republican and Democratic candidates typically share nearly 100% of the vote, while in France, a greater number of parties and candidates causes votes to be more dispersed among candidates. Every political party on the spectrum, from the extreme left to the extreme right, is represented as an option for the voters in the first round.

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