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EWS Economics Background Paper on Assessment of the Economics of Early Warning Systems for Disaster Risk Reduction1 Submitted to The World Bank Group Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) for Contract 7148513 Submitted by A.R. Subbiah Lolita Bildan Ramraj Narasimhan Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System 1 This paper was commissioned by the Joint World Bank - UN Project on the Economics of Disaster Risk Reduction. We are grateful to Apurva Sanghi, Saroj Jha, Thomas Teisberg, Rodney Weiher, and seminar participants at the World Bank for valuable comments, suggestions, and advice. Funding of this work by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery is gratefully acknowledged. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s). Facilitated by the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center 1 December 2008 Background Paper on Assessment of the Economics of Early Warning Systems for Disaster Risk Reduction Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................. v 1. Introduction and Methodology ................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Methodology for Quantification of Benefits of EWS ................................................................. 2 2. Case Studies on Cost-Benefits of EWS.................................................................................... 6 Case Study 1: Sidr Cyclone, November 2007, Bangladesh ........................................................ 8 2.1 Group 1: .................................................................................................................................... 12 Case Study 2: 2003 Floods, Sri Lanka ...................................................................................... 12 2.2 Group 2: .................................................................................................................................... 16 Case Study 3: Bangladesh Floods ............................................................................................. 16 2.3 Group 3: .................................................................................................................................... 24 Case Study 6: 2006 Floods (July – September) Thailand ......................................................... 24 2.4 Group 4: .................................................................................................................................... 26 Case Study 5: Climate Forecast Applications- Philippines (2002-2003 El Niño) .................... 26 Case Study 6: India Drought 2002 ............................................................................................ 28 2.5 Category 2: Geological Hazards (e.g. Tsunami) ....................................................................... 32 Case Study 7: Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) ................ 33 3. Non-Market Factors ............................................................................................................... 39 3.1 Factors Influencing Adoption of EWS at Government or Institutional Levels ........................ 39 3.1.1 At policy level .................................................................................................................. 39 3.1.2 At political level ............................................................................................................... 42 3.1.3 At technical institutions ................................................................................................... 45 3.1.4 At the community level .................................................................................................... 47 3.2 Incentives for EWS ................................................................................................................... 48 Annex A: Methods of Calculating Flood Damage Reduction due to Early Warning ....................... 50 Annex B: Basic Services vs. Value-Added Services ......................................................................... 52 Annex C: Avoidable Damage for Various Sectors – Perception of Small Farmers in Bangladesh .. 55 Annex D: Additional Case Studies .................................................................................................... 56 Annex E: Climate Field Schools in Indonesia ................................................................................... 64 Annex F: List of References .............................................................................................................. 56 Annex G: Terms of Reference for the Paper ..................................................................................... 68 i Background Paper on Assessment of the Economics of Early Warning Systems for Disaster Risk Reduction Figures 1. Flood affected areas – Sri Lanka, May 2003 ........................................................................13 2. Historical flood event: extent and crop damage ...................................................................16 3. Area under production: major crops .....................................................................................17 4. Cereal production (1972-2001) .............................................................................................18 5. Improvement in forecast lead time due to CFAB technology, Bangladesh ..........................21 6. June-July rainfall (1993-2002) ..............................................................................................29 7. RIMES Member Countries ...................................................................................................33 8. Integration of tsunami and hydro-meteorological subsystems .............................................35 9. Integration of tsunami and hydro-meteorological subsystems: common elements ..............35 10. Integration of tsunami and hydro-meteorological subsystems: human resource ..................35 11. Integration of tsunami and hydro-meteorological subsystems: human resource ..................35 12. Addressing various gaps in an end-to-end early warning framework ..................................36 13. Central Water Commission (CWC) of Government of India ...............................................46 Boxes 1. Benefits of adopting early warning systems ............................................................................2 2. Benefits of fostering community and institutional involvement ..............................................6 3. Climate forecast applications in Bangladesh,flood forecasting technology ..........................20 4. Institutional responses to the July 2007 flood forecasts in Bangladesh.................................23 5. Forecasting technology options & avoidable damages ..........................................................25 6. Possible measures that could have led to reduction of impacts of 2002 drought ..................32 7. Agro-meteorological station in Dumangas Municipality, Iloilo Province.............................43 8. Bird flu claims first Thai victim.............................................................................................44 9. August 2003 heat wave in France ..........................................................................................44 Tables 1. Case study findings on cost-benefits of EWS ........................................................................ vi 2. Application of lead time for agriculture...................................................................................3 3. Decision table- probabilistic forecast information ...................................................................3 4. Damage reduction due to early warning of different lead times ..............................................4 5. Summary of damage and losses – Cyclone Sidr ......................................................................8 6. EWS costs for Bangladesh Sidr Cyclone .................................................................................9 7. Identifying EWS benefits for Bangladesh Sidr Cyclone .......................................................10 8. Quantifying EWS benefits for Bangladesh Sidr Cyclone ......................................................11 9. EWS costs for Sri Lanka ........................................................................................................14 10. Avoidable damage in two of the five districts affected – 2003 floods, Sri Lanka .................14 11. Estimated avoidable damage from floods in Sri Lanka, last 3 decades .................................15 12. Return period of floods ..........................................................................................................16 13. Major floods affecting Bangladesh in last five decades ........................................................17 14. Quantifying benefits: July-Aug 2007 Floods .........................................................................18 15. Estimated avoidable damage for floods in Bangladesh, last 3 decades .................................20 16. Potential impacts in food and agriculture sector due to various floods ................................21 17. Actions for utilizing improved flood forecast information
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