Elliptical Structures of Gravity Waves Produced by Typhoon Soudelor in 2015 Near Taiwan
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Observation and a Numerical Study of Gravity Waves During Tropical Cyclone Ivan (2008)
Open Access Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 641–658, 2014 Atmospheric www.atmos-chem-phys.net/14/641/2014/ doi:10.5194/acp-14-641-2014 Chemistry © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. and Physics Observation and a numerical study of gravity waves during tropical cyclone Ivan (2008) F. Chane Ming1, C. Ibrahim1, C. Barthe1, S. Jolivet2, P. Keckhut3, Y.-A. Liou4, and Y. Kuleshov5,6 1Université de la Réunion, Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, UMR8105, CNRS-Météo France-Université, La Réunion, France 2Singapore Delft Water Alliance, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore 3Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales, UMR8190, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Université Versailles-Saint Quentin, Guyancourt, France 4Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research, National Central University, Chung-Li 3200, Taiwan 5National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia 6School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University, Melbourne, Australia Correspondence to: F. Chane Ming ([email protected]) Received: 3 December 2012 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 24 April 2013 Revised: 21 November 2013 – Accepted: 2 December 2013 – Published: 22 January 2014 Abstract. Gravity waves (GWs) with horizontal wavelengths ber 1 vortex Rossby wave is suggested as a source of domi- of 32–2000 km are investigated during tropical cyclone (TC) nant inertia GW with horizontal wavelengths of 400–800 km, Ivan (2008) in the southwest Indian Ocean in the upper tropo- while shorter scale modes (100–200 km) located at northeast sphere (UT) and the lower stratosphere (LS) using observa- and southeast of the TC could be attributed to strong local- tional data sets, radiosonde and GPS radio occultation data, ized convection in spiral bands resulting from wave number 2 ECMWF analyses and simulations of the French numerical vortex Rossby waves. -
Global Catastrophe Review – 2015
GC BRIEFING An Update from GC Analytics© March 2016 GLOBAL CATASTROPHE REVIEW – 2015 The year 2015 was a quiet one in terms of global significant insured losses, which totaled around USD 30.5 billion. Insured losses were below the 10-year and 5-year moving averages of around USD 49.7 billion and USD 62.6 billion, respectively (see Figures 1 and 2). Last year marked the lowest total insured catastrophe losses since 2009 and well below the USD 126 billion seen in 2011. 1 The most impactful event of 2015 was the Port of Tianjin, China explosions in August, rendering estimated insured losses between USD 1.6 and USD 3.3 billion, according to the Guy Carpenter report following the event, with a December estimate from Swiss Re of at least USD 2 billion. The series of winter storms and record cold of the eastern United States resulted in an estimated USD 2.1 billion of insured losses, whereas in Europe, storms Desmond, Eva and Frank in December 2015 are expected to render losses exceeding USD 1.6 billion. Other impactful events were the damaging wildfires in the western United States, severe flood events in the Southern Plains and Carolinas and Typhoon Goni affecting Japan, the Philippines and the Korea Peninsula, all with estimated insured losses exceeding USD 1 billion. The year 2015 marked one of the strongest El Niño periods on record, characterized by warm waters in the east Pacific tropics. This was associated with record-setting tropical cyclone activity in the North Pacific basin, but relative quiet in the North Atlantic. -
Université D Faculté Des Lettres Départemen
UNIVERSITÉ D’ANTANANARIVO FACULTÉ DES LETTRES ET SCIENCES HUMAINES DÉPARTEMENT DE GÉOGRAPHIE Filière Spécialisée en Environnement et Aménagement du Territoire (F.S.E.A.T) MÉMOIRE POUR L’OBTENTION DU DIPLÔME DE MAITRISE « VULNERABILITE DE LA VILLE COTIERE FACE AUX CYCLONES : CAS DE LA COMMUNE URBAINE D’ANTALAHA REGION SAVA » Présenté par : BE MELSON Evrald Angelo Sous la direction de : Madame Simone RATSIVALAKA, Professeur Titulaire au Département de Géographie Date de soutenance : 1O Octobre 2014 Octobre 2014 UNIVERSITÉ D’ANTANANARIVO FACULTÉ DES LETTRES ET SCIENCES HUMAINES DÉPARTEMENT DE GÉOGRAPHIE Filière Spécialisée en Environnement et Aménagement du Territoire (F.S.E.A.T) MÉMOIRE POUR L’OBTENTION DU DIPLÔME DE MAITRISE « VULNERABILITE DE LA VILLE COTIERE FACE AUX CYCLONES : CAS DE LA COMMUNE URBAINE D’ANTALAHA REGION SAVA » Présenté par : BE MELSON Evrald Angelo Président du jury : James RAVALISON, Professeur Rapporteur : Simone RATSIVALAKA, Professeur Titulaire Juge : Mparany ANDRIAMIHAMINA, Maitre de conférences Octobre 2014 REMERCIEMENTS Ce mémoire de Maitrise n’aurait pas été ce qu’il est aujourd’hui, sans le concours de plusieurs personnes, à qui nous aimerons témoigner notre plus profonde reconnaissance. Tout d’abord, nous remercions de tout profond de notre cœur le Dieu Tout Puissant de nous avoir donné encore la vie et l’opportunité d’avoir pu mener à terme ce travail de recherche. Aussi, Monsieur James RAVALISON, Professeur pour avoir accepté de présider notre soutenance ; Monsieur Mparany ANDRIAMIHAMINA, Maître de conférences pour avoir accepté de juger notre soutenance ; Madame Simone RATSIVALAKA, notre Directeur de mémoire pour sa constante dévotion à notre travail malgré ses multiples occupations. -
Geospatial Analysis of Rain Fields and Associated Environmental Conditions for Cyclones Eline and Hudah
Article Geospatial Analysis of Rain Fields and Associated Environmental Conditions for Cyclones Eline and Hudah Corene J. Matyas and Sarah VanSchoick * Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA; matyas@ufl.edu * Correspondence: sm.vanschoick@ufl.edu; Tel.: +1-3523-920-494 Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TCs) that landfall over Madagascar and Mozambique can cause flooding that endangers lives. To better understand how environmental conditions affect the rain fields of these TCs, this study utilized spatial metrics to analyze two storms taking similar paths two months apart. Using a geographic information system, rain rates of 1 mm/h were extracted from a satellite- based dataset and contoured to define the rain field edge. Average extent of rainfall was measured for each quadrant and asymmetry was calculated along with rain field area, dispersion, closure, and solidity. Environmental conditions and storm intensity were analyzed every six hours. Results indicate that although both TCs intensified prior to first interaction with land, stronger vertical wind shear experienced by Eline was associated with higher asymmetry and dispersion. Additionally, rain fields were less solid although the center was mostly enclosed by rain. Storm shape was altered as both storms tracked over Madagascar, with Hudah recovering more quickly. Moisture increased for both storms and shear decreased for Eline, allowing it to become more centered and solid, and grow larger. Relationships between intensity, land interaction, and rain field shape support the results of previous research and demonstrate the global utility of these metrics. Keywords: GIS; spatial analysis; tropical cyclones; rain fields Citation: Matyas, C.J.; VanSchoick, S. -
Tropical Cyclones Avoidance in Ocean Navigation – Safety of Navigation and Some Economical Aspects
the International Journal Volume 12 on Marine Navigation Number 1 http://www.transnav.eu and Safety of Sea Transportation March 2018 DOI: 10.12716/1001.12.01.06 Tropical Cyclones Avoidance in Ocean Navigation – Safety of Navigation and Some Economical Aspects M. Szymański & B. Wiśniewski Maritime University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland ABSTRACT: Based upon the true voyages various methods of avoidance maneuver determination in ship – cyclone encounter situations were presented. The goal was to find the economically optimal solution (minimum fuel consumption, maintaining the voyage schedule) while at the same time not to exceed an acceptable weather risk level. 1 INTRODUCTION 1 Opposite courses – courses of the ship and the cyclone differ by 150° to 210°. Tropical cyclone avoidance in shipping by merchant 2 Crossing situation– courses of the ship and the ships is a constant element of both ocean and coastal cyclone cross at an angle of 30° ‐ 90°. navigation. It has a significant influence upon the 3 Overtaking of the cyclone by the ship. economical and safety aspects of the voyage.The key In each of them a certain type of action (course decision in tropical cyclone avoidance is the alteration, slowing down or speeding up) is regarded determining of the moment of the beginning of as the most effective one. avoidance manoeuvre and the determining of the correct course and speed with maintaining the Determination of the avoidance maneuver in commercial and economic viability of the voyage. coastal and restricted waters is a separate issue.Within the area of the tropical storm the wind is By commercial and economic viability of the very violent and the seas are high and confused. -
State of the Climate in 2015
STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2015 Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 97, No. 8, August 2016 severed during the storm, and four days after the Islands, on 28 June. Over the next couple of days, the storm nearly 60% of the nation’s inhabited islands system moved westward into the Australian region, remained cut off from the outside world. According where it was named a TC. Raquel then moved east- to UNESCO, 268 million U.S. dollars was required for ward into the South Pacific basin, where it weakened total recovery and rehabilitation of Vanuatu. into a tropical depression. On 4 July, the system The storm’s winds gradually slowed afterwards as moved south-westward and impacted the Solomon Pam tracked west of the Tafea Islands. However, the Islands with high wind gusts and heavy rain. Fiji Meteorological Service indicated that the TC’s pressure dropped farther to 896 hPa on 14 March. f. Tropical cyclone heat potential—G. J. Goni, J. A. Knaff, As Pam travelled farther south, the storm’s eye faded and I.-I. Lin away and Pam’s low-level circulation became dis- This section summarizes the previously described placed from its associated thunderstorms, indicating tropical cyclone (TC) basins from the standpoint of a rapid weakening phase. Later on 15 March, Pam en- tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) by focusing on tered a phase of extratropical transition and affected vertically integrated upper ocean temperature condi- northeast New Zealand and the Chatham Islands tions during the season for each basin with respect to with high winds, heavy rain, and rough seas. -
Fast Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction Using Searching Optimization of a Numerical Scenario Database
OCTOBER 2021 X I E E T A L . 1629 Fast Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction Using Searching Optimization of a Numerical Scenario Database a,b,c a,b,c a a a,b,c a,b,c YANSHUANG XIE, SHAOPING SHANG, JINQUAN CHEN, FENG ZHANG, ZHIGAN HE, GUOMEI WEI, a,b,c d d JINGYU WU, BENLU ZHU, AND YINDONG ZENG a College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China b Research and Development Center for Ocean Observation Technologies, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China c Laboratory of Underwater Acoustic Communication and Marine Information Technology, Ministry of Education, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China d Fujian Marine Forecasts, Fuzhou, China (Manuscript received 6 December 2020, in final form 10 June 2021) ABSTRACT: Accurate storm surge forecasts provided rapidly could support timely decision-making with consideration of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting error. This study developed a fast storm surge ensemble prediction method based on TC track probability forecasting and searching optimization of a numerical scenario database (SONSD). In a case study of the Fujian Province coast (China), a storm surge scenario database was established using numerical simulations generated by 93 150 hypothetical TCs. In a GIS-based visualization system, a single surge forecast representing 2562 distinct typhoon tracks and the occurrence probability of overflow of seawalls along the coast could be achieved in 1–2 min. Application to the cases of Typhoon Soudelor (2015) and Typhoon Maria (2018) demonstrated that the proposed method is feasible and effective. Storm surge calculated by SONSD had excellent agreement with numerical model results (i.e., mean MAE and RMSE: 7.1 and 10.7 cm, respectively, correlation coefficient: .0.9). -
Analysis of Gravity-Waves Produced by Intense Tropical Cyclones
Ann. Geophys., 28, 531–547, 2010 www.ann-geophys.net/28/531/2010/ Annales © Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under Geophysicae the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Analysis of gravity-waves produced by intense tropical cyclones F. Chane Ming1, Z. Chen2, and F. Roux3 1Laboratoire de l’Atmosphere` et des Cyclones, UMR 8105, CNRS-Met´ eo-France,´ Universite´ de la Reunion,´ La Reunion,´ France 2Institute of Atmospheric Physics – Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China 3Laboratoire d’Aerologie,´ UMR CNRS – Universite´ Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France Received: 19 June 2009 – Revised: 27 January 2010 – Accepted: 31 January 2010 – Published: 15 February 2010 Abstract. Conventional and wavelet methods are combined sphere (Sato, 1993; Pfister et al., 1993; Danielsen, 1993; to characterize gravity-waves (GWs) produced by two in- Dhaka et al., 2003; Cairo et al., 2008). Chane Ming et tense tropical cyclones (TCs) in the upper troposphere and al. (2002) showed that such GWs can be characterized using lower stratosphere (UT/LS) from GPS winsonde data. Anal- high resolution daily radiosonde data in the UT/LS within yses reveal large contribution of GWs induced by TCs to a radius of about 2000 km above the radiosonde station. For wave energy densities in the UT/LS. An increase in total instance, significant release of GW energy was observed dur- energy density of about 30% of the climatological energy ing landfalls of TC Hudah over Madagascar and Mozam- density in austral summer was estimated in the LS above bique. Observations of GWs also appear to be common in Tromelin during TC Dina. -
A Forecasting Approach of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Based on Thresholds of Multi-Physical Parameters and Its Verification Using ECMWF Model Data
MAUSAM, 71, 4 (October 2020), 649-660 551.515.2 : 551.509.32 A forecasting approach of tropical cyclone genesis based on thresholds of multi-physical parameters and its verification using ECMWF model data WEN FENG#, *, LI ZHU**, WAIKIN WONG***, CHUNWING CHOY*** and JUNFENG MIAO# #College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210 044, China *Hainan Meteorological Observatory, Haikou 510203, China **Taizhou Meteorological Observatory, Taizhou 225300, China ***Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong 99907, China (Received 31 January 2020, Accepted 15 September 2020) e mail : [email protected] सार — हालांिक काफी अययन ने सािबत िकया है िक उणकिटबंधीय चक्रवात (टीसी) के माग र् और तीता का पूवार्नमानु संख्यामक मौसम पूवार्नुमान (NWP) मॉडल से प्रा जानकारी पर बहुत अिधक िनभरर् करता है, कु छ शोध से पता चला है िक पिमी उरी प्रशांत महासागर (WNP) बेिसन म NWP मॉडल उणकिटबंधीय चक्रवात की उपि का िकतना अछा पूवार्नमानु लगाते ह। NWP मॉडल द्वारा WNP बेिसन म उणकिटबंधीय चक्रवात उपि पूवार्नमानु की िवशेषताओं को समझन े के िलए, यह अययन ऐितहािसक आंकड़ े का उपयोग करते हुए उणकिटबंधीय चक्रवात के बनने की पहचान हेतु मापदंड का एक सेट प्रा करता है तथा 2013 और 2015 के बीच ECMWF मॉडल आंकड़ े के आधार पर इसे सयािपत करता है - पिरणाम बताते ह िक प्रभाव सीमा मानदंड के आधार पर अपनाए गए प्रितशतता मूय का एगोिरदम के प्रदशनर् पर महवपूण र् प्रभाव पड़ता है। एक िविश अंतराल पर प्रभाव सीमा का उिचत समायोजन प्रभावी प से टीसी की उपि के पूवार्नुमान को बेहतर बना सकता है। उदाहरण के िलए, WNP बेिसन म पूवार्नमानु पिरणाम 850 hPa तर पर सापेिक्षक भ्रिमलता छोटे -
Capital Adequacy (E) Task Force RBC Proposal Form
Capital Adequacy (E) Task Force RBC Proposal Form [ ] Capital Adequacy (E) Task Force [ x ] Health RBC (E) Working Group [ ] Life RBC (E) Working Group [ ] Catastrophe Risk (E) Subgroup [ ] Investment RBC (E) Working Group [ ] SMI RBC (E) Subgroup [ ] C3 Phase II/ AG43 (E/A) Subgroup [ ] P/C RBC (E) Working Group [ ] Stress Testing (E) Subgroup DATE: 08/31/2020 FOR NAIC USE ONLY CONTACT PERSON: Crystal Brown Agenda Item # 2020-07-H TELEPHONE: 816-783-8146 Year 2021 EMAIL ADDRESS: [email protected] DISPOSITION [ x ] ADOPTED WG 10/29/20 & TF 11/19/20 ON BEHALF OF: Health RBC (E) Working Group [ ] REJECTED NAME: Steve Drutz [ ] DEFERRED TO TITLE: Chief Financial Analyst/Chair [ ] REFERRED TO OTHER NAIC GROUP AFFILIATION: WA Office of Insurance Commissioner [ ] EXPOSED ________________ ADDRESS: 5000 Capitol Blvd SE [ ] OTHER (SPECIFY) Tumwater, WA 98501 IDENTIFICATION OF SOURCE AND FORM(S)/INSTRUCTIONS TO BE CHANGED [ x ] Health RBC Blanks [ x ] Health RBC Instructions [ ] Other ___________________ [ ] Life and Fraternal RBC Blanks [ ] Life and Fraternal RBC Instructions [ ] Property/Casualty RBC Blanks [ ] Property/Casualty RBC Instructions DESCRIPTION OF CHANGE(S) Split the Bonds and Misc. Fixed Income Assets into separate pages (Page XR007 and XR008). REASON OR JUSTIFICATION FOR CHANGE ** Currently the Bonds and Misc. Fixed Income Assets are included on page XR007 of the Health RBC formula. With the implementation of the 20 bond designations and the electronic only tables, the Bonds and Misc. Fixed Income Assets were split between two tabs in the excel file for use of the electronic only tables and ease of printing. However, for increased transparency and system requirements, it is suggested that these pages be split into separate page numbers beginning with year-2021. -
NASA Satellites Analyze Typhoon Soudelor Moving Toward Taiwan 5 August 2015
NASA satellites analyze Typhoon Soudelor moving toward Taiwan 5 August 2015 mission core observatory, a satellite managed by both NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, took a look at rainfall and cloud heights. Typhoon Soudelor's sustained winds were 105 knots (about 121 mph) when the GPM core observatory satellite flew above on August 5, 2015 at 1051 UTC. At NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, a rainfall analysis was made from data collected from GPM's Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) instruments. The analysis showed that Soudelor was very large and had a well-defined eye. Intense feeder bands are shown spiraling into the center. Three dimensional radar reflectivity data from GPM's DPR (ku Band) were used to construct a simulated cross section through Typhoon Soudelor's center. A view from the south showed the 3-D vertical structure of rainfall within Soudelor. On Aug. 5, the GPM satellite data was used to make a Some storms examined with GPM's radar reached 3-D vertical structure of rainfall within Soudelor. Some heights of over 12.9 km (about 8 miles) and were storms examined with GPM's radar reached heights of dropping rain at a rate of over 87 mm (3.4 inches). over 12.9 km (about 8 miles) and were dropping rain at a rate of over 87 mm (3.4 inches). Credit: NASA/JAXA/SSAI, Hal Pierce Heavy rain, towering thunderstorms, and a large area are things that NASA satellites observed as Typhoon Soudelor moves toward Taiwan on August 5, 2015. -
Indigenous Knowledge and Endogenous Actions for Building Tribal Resilience After Typhoon Soudelor in Northern Taiwan
sustainability Article Indigenous Knowledge and Endogenous Actions for Building Tribal Resilience after Typhoon Soudelor in Northern Taiwan Su-Hsin Lee 1 and Yin-Jen Chen 2,* 1 Department of Geography, National Taiwan Normal University, 162, Section 1, Heping E. Rd., Taipei City 10610, Taiwan; [email protected] 2 Graduate Institute of Earth Science, Chinese Culture University, 55, Hwa-Kang Road, Yang-Ming-Shan, Taipei City 11114, Taiwan * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: Indigenous peoples often face significant vulnerabilities to climate risks, yet the capacity of a social-ecological system (SES) to resilience is abstracted from indigenous and local knowledge. This research explored how the Tayal people in the Wulai tribes located in typhoon disaster areas along Nanshi River used indigenous knowledge as tribal resilience. It applied empirical analysis from secondary data on disaster relief and in-depth interviews, demonstrating how indigenous people’s endogenous actions helped during post-disaster reconstructing. With the intertwined concepts of indigenous knowledge, SESs, and tribes’ cooperation, the result presented the endogenous actions for tribal resilience. In addition, indigenous knowledge is instigated by the Qutux Niqan of mutual assistance and symbiosis among the Wulai tribes, and there is a need to build joint cooperation through local residence, indigenous people living outside of their tribes, and religious or social groups. The findings of tribal resilience after a typhoon disaster of co-production in the Wulai, Lahaw, and Fushan tribes include the importance of historical context, how indigenous people turn to their local knowledge rather than just only participating in disaster relief, and how they produce indigenous tourism for indigenous knowledge inheritance.