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Tropical Cyclones Avoidance in Ocean Navigation – Safety of Navigation and Some Economical Aspects

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Tropical Cyclones Avoidance in Ocean Navigation – Safety of Navigation and Some Economical Aspects the International Journal Volume 12 on Marine Navigation Number 1 http://www.transnav.eu and Safety of Sea Transportation March 2018 DOI: 10.12716/1001.12.01.06 Tropical Cyclones Avoidance in Ocean Navigation – Safety of Navigation and Some Economical Aspects M. Szymański & B. Wiśniewski Maritime University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland ABSTRACT: Based upon the true voyages various methods of avoidance maneuver determination in ship – cyclone encounter situations were presented. The goal was to find the economically optimal solution (minimum fuel consumption, maintaining the voyage schedule) while at the same time not to exceed an acceptable weather risk level. 1 INTRODUCTION 1 Opposite courses – courses of the ship and the cyclone differ by 150° to 210°. Tropical cyclone avoidance in shipping by merchant 2 Crossing situation– courses of the ship and the ships is a constant element of both ocean and coastal cyclone cross at an angle of 30° ‐ 90°. navigation. It has a significant influence upon the 3 Overtaking of the cyclone by the ship. economical and safety aspects of the voyage.The key In each of them a certain type of action (course decision in tropical cyclone avoidance is the alteration, slowing down or speeding up) is regarded determining of the moment of the beginning of as the most effective one. avoidance manoeuvre and the determining of the correct course and speed with maintaining the Determination of the avoidance maneuver in commercial and economic viability of the voyage. coastal and restricted waters is a separate issue.Within the area of the tropical storm the wind is By commercial and economic viability of the very violent and the seas are high and confused. Swell voyage the following is understood: is also high and confused, with several different swell 1 Minimalization of fuel consumption during the systems, often crossing and interfering with each avoidance maneuver. other. Because of that it is a dangerous threat even to 2 Maintaining the voyage schedule. Depending by the biggest and well‐found chips. The danger is the type of shipping it is understood as: especially enhanced when the ship is caught by the maintaining the charterer speed throughout the storm in restricted or shallow waters or in the vicinity voyage – tramping, of land, without adequate room to manoeuvre. It is arrival at the destination port according to the recommended to remain all the time no less than charter party conditions – tramping, 80Nm, however, 250Nm is regarded as the safe arrival at the destination port within the port distance. (UK Hydrographic Office, NP100, 2016) window – regular shipping. Early and effective action might be essential to Three types of encounter situations are possible in preclude any such situation arising. The key decision open (ocean) areas (Wiśniewski & Kaczmarek 2012): in tropical cyclone avoidance is the determining of the 57 moment of the beginning of avoidance manoeuvre (Wiśniewski 1995). These works contain definitions of and also determining the correct course what might 2 weather coefficients of difficulty, weather coefficient pose a problem in coastal and restricted waters. of difficulty 1 and weather coefficient of difficulty 2, based on the maximum wave height in the whole There are no recommended actions in terms of voyage (coefficient 1) and a height of wave as efficiency in tropical cyclones avoidance in coastal observed by the navigators (coefficient 2) which the and restricted waters with regard to type of ship would encounter en route in the function of encounter. Vicinity of land, navigational hazards and angle of attack and on a calculated or for each ship obstructions (straits, narrows, shoals and shallow defined safe/acceptable and dangerous wave heights. waters) force treatment of each such case Definitions of safe/acceptable and dangerous wave individually. The following general strategies can be heights are also given in these works. identified: 1 Steaming away from the cyclone at a safe distance For evaluation of a safety level of routes tested in and waiting it out. this article a modified weather coefficient 2 was 2 Separation from the cyclone by land. adopted (Wiśniewski 1995). The modification lies in 3 Waiting out the cyclone in port or other place of replacing the observed wave height hc with a refuge. forecasted significant wave height h1/3. A modified weather coefficient K1/3 is given by the following In this paper all types of encounter situations were formula: discussed and analyzed in the aspects of safety and sea transport economy. The analyzes are based upon i1 the true voyages by ships in the regions where 1 h1/3 q tropical cyclones can be encountered. K111/3 ds (1) nhqin d where: 2 METHODOLOGY h1/3(q) – significant wave height (h1/3) forecasted on a given section of track (h1/3= 1,11hc); The following toolswere employed: hc –wave height as observed onboard by the ORS (Onboard Routing System) BVS 7.0 – Bon navigators; Voyage System 7.0 (Applied Weather hd(q) – safe/acceptable wave height Technologies, 2014), hs – dangerous wave height ORS SPOS Fleet Management 7.0.0.1 (Meteo αd= nd/n – a ratio of number of cases where significant Consult BV, 2009), wave heights ere equal or bigger than hd to a total 1‐2‐3 rule (Holweg, 2000), number of observations in a given sector of angle of manual anti‐collision plot, wave attack CYKLON programme (Wiśniewski&Kaczmarek αs = ns/n – a ratio of number of cases where significant 2012) (Wiśniewski 2012), wave heights ere equal or bigger than hs to a total shore based weather routing recommendations by number of observations in a given sector of angle of AWT. wave attack In cases, where data were available, determined avoidance actions had been evaluated with the use of the weather coefficient K1/3 invented by the authors. 4 RESULTS Weather data used and their sources: the weather data file for ORS BVS containing 4.1 Typhoon SOUDELOR – restricted and coastal areas weather analysis and prognosis up to 16 days in advance (AWT), Big (LOA=336m,GT=97500, DWT=71274MT) the weather data file for ORS SPOS containing postpanamax containership has encountered typhoon weather analysis and prognosis up to 9 days in SOUDELOR during the voyage from Yantian (China, advance (SPOS), ETD: 07.08.2015 0300UTC,) to Vancouver (Canada, EGC forecasts, outlooks and advisories, ETA: 19.08.2015, 2100UTC) in August 2015 in coastal surface pressure analysis and prognosis charts and restricted area of the Taiwan Strait and northern from JMA (Japanese Maritime Agency), South China Sea.. typhoon prognosis charts from JMA (up to 120 Route as recommended by nautical publications is hrswith 70% probability level), shown in Fig. 1 (UK Hydrographic Office NP136 typhoon strong winds prognosis charts from JMA 2014). It was, however, impossible to steam along it. (up to 72 hrs), Immediately after commencment of the voyage the weather charts from NOAA (NOAA) typhoon SOUDELOR was encountered.It was moving Results obtained were compared. The best WNW from the Philippine Sea over Taiwan towards solutions in terms of safety and possibility of route continental China – Fig. 2. execution were chosen. 3 WEATHER COEFFICIENT K1/3 Definition of a weather coefficient of difficulty of the sea voyage is given in (Wiśniewski, 1991) and in 58 Figure 1. Great circle route Yantian – Vancouver (Own Figure 3. Track of the typhoon SOUDELOR and route study based on BVS 7.0) through the Luzon Strait (own study based on BVS) 4.1.2 Avoidance maneuver with the use of ORS SPOS 7.0.0.1 ORS SPOS generated the routes through the Taiwan Strait until August 3rd inclusive. Then the SPOS automatic generated routes led through Luzon Strait, initially Bashi Channel (Fig. 4), and from Figure 2. SOUDELOR track in JMA outlooks from 7 and 8 August 6th (Fig. 5) through Balintang Channel. August (JMA) Three options of avoidance manoeuvre were thus outlined: 1 Passing North through the Taiwan Strait crossing‐ T the typhoon’s track. 2 Waiting until the typhoon passes by steaming SW from Taiwan in the South China Sea. 3 Deviation to SE towards the Luzon Strait and passing S of the typhoon through one of the 3 available deep water passes in the Luzon Strait: Bashi Channel, Balintang Channel or Babuyan Channel. 4.1.1 Avoidance maneuver with the use of ORS BVS 7.0 Figure 4. SPOS generated route from 3 August (Own study based on SPOS ORS) Testing by BVS carried out on 3, 4 and 5 August generated the routes through the Taiwan Strait. At that time that route was already closed – see Fig. 2. SOUDELOR intensifies and heads WNW. Choice of route through the Taiwan Strait would lead to cross‐T the typhoon’s track on a restricted area, close to land and shallow waters. Therefore these routes were rejected by the captain. The option to wait out the typhoon in the south was also rejected as too time consuming. The correct solutions is the route passing through the Balintang Channel in the Luzon Strait, S of Taiwan(the most southern route in Fig. 3). This route has been programmed manually. Distance from the centre of the typhoon along that route was reasonably safe (150‐200Nm) and it run through the deep and safe Balintang Channel. Equally deep Bashi Channel, situated farther to the N, was rejected due to insufficient distance from the centre from the typhoon Figure 5. Results of testing in SPOS on 4, 5 and 6 August (100Nm) and the Babuyan Channel, situated farther (Own study in SPOS ORS) to the S, was regarded navigationally unsafe. 4.1.3 Avoidance manoeuvre by 1‐2‐3 rule Current position of the typhoon SOUDELOR together with 34 knots wind zone is marked with the blue colour for August 4th (Fig.
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