Impacts of Typhoon Soudelor
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Topographic Influence on the Motion of Tropical Cyclones Landfalling on the Coast of China
OCTOBER 2016 C H E N A N D W U 1615 Topographic Influence on the Motion of Tropical Cyclones Landfalling on the Coast of China XIAOYU CHEN Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China LIGUANG WU Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, and State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China (Manuscript received 17 March 2016, in final form 10 August 2016) ABSTRACT A few recent numerical studies investigated the influence of a continent, which is much larger in size than islands, on the track of a landfalling tropical cyclone. It has been found that land surface roughness and temperature tend to make a tropical cyclone move toward the continent. In this study, the effect of the elevated terrain on the western part of mainland China on landfall tracks is examined through idealized numerical experiments, in which an initially axisymmetric vortex is embedded into a monsoon trough and takes a landfall track across China’s mainland. It is found that the effect of the elevated terrain on the western part of mainland China can enhance the southerly environmental flows in the low and midtroposphere, leading to an additional landward component of tropical cyclone motion, suggesting that forecasts for tropical cyclone tracks over land should take into consideration the change in thermal condition over the continent. -
Global Catastrophe Review – 2015
GC BRIEFING An Update from GC Analytics© March 2016 GLOBAL CATASTROPHE REVIEW – 2015 The year 2015 was a quiet one in terms of global significant insured losses, which totaled around USD 30.5 billion. Insured losses were below the 10-year and 5-year moving averages of around USD 49.7 billion and USD 62.6 billion, respectively (see Figures 1 and 2). Last year marked the lowest total insured catastrophe losses since 2009 and well below the USD 126 billion seen in 2011. 1 The most impactful event of 2015 was the Port of Tianjin, China explosions in August, rendering estimated insured losses between USD 1.6 and USD 3.3 billion, according to the Guy Carpenter report following the event, with a December estimate from Swiss Re of at least USD 2 billion. The series of winter storms and record cold of the eastern United States resulted in an estimated USD 2.1 billion of insured losses, whereas in Europe, storms Desmond, Eva and Frank in December 2015 are expected to render losses exceeding USD 1.6 billion. Other impactful events were the damaging wildfires in the western United States, severe flood events in the Southern Plains and Carolinas and Typhoon Goni affecting Japan, the Philippines and the Korea Peninsula, all with estimated insured losses exceeding USD 1 billion. The year 2015 marked one of the strongest El Niño periods on record, characterized by warm waters in the east Pacific tropics. This was associated with record-setting tropical cyclone activity in the North Pacific basin, but relative quiet in the North Atlantic. -
State of the Climate in 2015
STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2015 Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 97, No. 8, August 2016 severed during the storm, and four days after the Islands, on 28 June. Over the next couple of days, the storm nearly 60% of the nation’s inhabited islands system moved westward into the Australian region, remained cut off from the outside world. According where it was named a TC. Raquel then moved east- to UNESCO, 268 million U.S. dollars was required for ward into the South Pacific basin, where it weakened total recovery and rehabilitation of Vanuatu. into a tropical depression. On 4 July, the system The storm’s winds gradually slowed afterwards as moved south-westward and impacted the Solomon Pam tracked west of the Tafea Islands. However, the Islands with high wind gusts and heavy rain. Fiji Meteorological Service indicated that the TC’s pressure dropped farther to 896 hPa on 14 March. f. Tropical cyclone heat potential—G. J. Goni, J. A. Knaff, As Pam travelled farther south, the storm’s eye faded and I.-I. Lin away and Pam’s low-level circulation became dis- This section summarizes the previously described placed from its associated thunderstorms, indicating tropical cyclone (TC) basins from the standpoint of a rapid weakening phase. Later on 15 March, Pam en- tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) by focusing on tered a phase of extratropical transition and affected vertically integrated upper ocean temperature condi- northeast New Zealand and the Chatham Islands tions during the season for each basin with respect to with high winds, heavy rain, and rough seas. -
Fast Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction Using Searching Optimization of a Numerical Scenario Database
OCTOBER 2021 X I E E T A L . 1629 Fast Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction Using Searching Optimization of a Numerical Scenario Database a,b,c a,b,c a a a,b,c a,b,c YANSHUANG XIE, SHAOPING SHANG, JINQUAN CHEN, FENG ZHANG, ZHIGAN HE, GUOMEI WEI, a,b,c d d JINGYU WU, BENLU ZHU, AND YINDONG ZENG a College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China b Research and Development Center for Ocean Observation Technologies, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China c Laboratory of Underwater Acoustic Communication and Marine Information Technology, Ministry of Education, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China d Fujian Marine Forecasts, Fuzhou, China (Manuscript received 6 December 2020, in final form 10 June 2021) ABSTRACT: Accurate storm surge forecasts provided rapidly could support timely decision-making with consideration of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting error. This study developed a fast storm surge ensemble prediction method based on TC track probability forecasting and searching optimization of a numerical scenario database (SONSD). In a case study of the Fujian Province coast (China), a storm surge scenario database was established using numerical simulations generated by 93 150 hypothetical TCs. In a GIS-based visualization system, a single surge forecast representing 2562 distinct typhoon tracks and the occurrence probability of overflow of seawalls along the coast could be achieved in 1–2 min. Application to the cases of Typhoon Soudelor (2015) and Typhoon Maria (2018) demonstrated that the proposed method is feasible and effective. Storm surge calculated by SONSD had excellent agreement with numerical model results (i.e., mean MAE and RMSE: 7.1 and 10.7 cm, respectively, correlation coefficient: .0.9). -
Paleo-Tropical Cyclone Deposits in the Taiwan Strait
Paleo‐tropical cyclone deposits in the Taiwan Strait: Processes, examples, and conceptual model Shahin E. Dashtgard, Ludvig Löwemark, Romain Vaucher, Yuyen Pan, Jessica Pilarcyzk, and Sebastien Castelltort Supplementary Data File Part A: Summary of all tropical cyclones that impacted Taiwan between 1982 and 2017 Summary of Typhoons in Taiwan 1982 to 2017 ** The number of events refers to how many times each storm was counted. For example, if a storm cross Taiwan through the central area and then the northern area (Fig. 2) it would be counted twice. Storms for which the eye was more than 50 km from the shoreline are only counted once based on the closest point of the eye to the shoreline. If the closest point is in the south, then the event is assigned to the south region (Fig. 7). OL = overland CE = central‐east TD = tropical Depression N = north CW = central‐west TS = Tropical Storm NE = northeast S = south TY = typhoon NW = northwest SE = southeast STY = super‐typhoon Acronyms C = central SW = southwest No. Typhoon Name Start Date Strongest Level of Typhoon Closest Distance Posistion Relative Number of level of at closest point / to eye to Taiwan to Taiwan events by Year Typhoon landfall Margin (km) area 1TS 06W 1982 ‐ TESS 1982‐06‐28 TS TD 158 SW 1 2TS 08W 1982 ‐ VAL 1982‐07‐04 TS TS 154 NE 1 3TY 10W 1982 ‐ ANDY 1982‐07‐21 TY4 TY2 0 OL ‐ S1 4TY 12W 1982 ‐ CECIL 1982‐08‐04 TY4 TY3 152 NE 1 5TY 13W 1982 ‐ DOT 1982‐08‐08 TY1 TS 0 OL ‐ S1 6TY 15W 1982 ‐ FAYE 1982‐08‐20 TY2 TD 39 S 1 7 1983 STY 04W 1983 ‐ WAYNE 1983‐07‐20 STY4/5 TY2/3 80 -
Radar Observation of Precipitation Asymmetries in Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall on East China Coast
MAY 2013 WU ET AL. 81 RADAR OBSERVATION OF PRECIPITATION ASYMMETRIES IN TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL ON EAST CHINA COAST 1,2 2,* 3 4 DAN WU , KUN ZHAO , BEN JONG -DAO JOU , WEN -CHAU LEE 1Shanghai Typhoon Institute/China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 2Key Laboratory for Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE and School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 3Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei 4The National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder ABSTRACT This study explores, for the first time, the asymmetric distribution of precipitation in tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall along east China coast using reflectivity data collected from coastal Doppler radars at mainland China and Taiwan. Six TCs (Saomai, Khanun, Wipha, Matsa, Rananim and Krosa) from 2004 to 2007 are ex- amined. The temporal and spatial evolution of these TCs’ inner and outer core asymmetric precipitation patterns before and after landfall is investigated. The radius of inner-core region is a function of the size of a TC apart from a fixed radius (100 km) adopted in previous studies. All six TCs possessed distinct asymmetric precipitation patterns between the inner- and outer- core regions. The amplitude of asymmetry decreases with the increasing TC intensity and it displays an ascending (descend- ing) trend in the inner (outer) core. In the inner-core region, the heavy rainfall with reflectivity factor above 40 dBZ tends to locate at the downshear side before landfall. Four cases have precipitation maxima on the downshear left side, in agreement with previous studies. As TCs approaching land (~ 2 hr before landfall), their precipitation maxima generally shift to the front quadrant of the motion partly due to the interaction of TC with the land surface. -
Nation-Building Tasks Being Carried out Through Special Projects To
Established 1914 Volume XIII, Number 122 12th Waxing of Wagaung 1367 ME Tuesday, 16 August, 2005 Nation-building tasks being carried out through special projects to ensure cent-per-cent, equitable development of all regions of the country Strive in harmony for emergence of modern nation Prime Minister General Soe Win inspects development tasks in Pauk Prime Minister General Soe Win meets officials, social organizations and entrepreneurs. — MNA YANGON, 15 Aug — grading tasks and the rector, professors and frankly professors, lectur- the hospital, Prime Min- Superintendent Dr Than Prime Minister General PBANRDA Minister Col faculty members of the ers, demonstrator and tu- ister General Soe Win Than Aye and officials. Soe Win, accompanied by Thein Nyunt gave a sup- university, Rector U Soe tors. Later, the prime and party inspected the The prime minister Member of the State Peace plementary report. Myint reported on brief minister and party went wards, laboratory, medi- greeted doctors and ful- and Development Council Afterwards, the history of the university, to Pauk Township 16-bed cal store and X-ray room filled the requirements. Lt-Gen Ye Myint, Chair- prime minister and party the area, construction of hospital by helicopter. At together with Medical (See page 16) man of Sagaing Division went to Pakokku Univer- buildings in the university, Peace and Development sity and inspected con- the number of students and Council Commander of struction of the main build- staff strength. 187 villages out of the 273 in Pauk Township North-West Command ing of the university. Rec- After the meeting, have been supplied with safe drinking water. -
A Forecasting Approach of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Based on Thresholds of Multi-Physical Parameters and Its Verification Using ECMWF Model Data
MAUSAM, 71, 4 (October 2020), 649-660 551.515.2 : 551.509.32 A forecasting approach of tropical cyclone genesis based on thresholds of multi-physical parameters and its verification using ECMWF model data WEN FENG#, *, LI ZHU**, WAIKIN WONG***, CHUNWING CHOY*** and JUNFENG MIAO# #College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210 044, China *Hainan Meteorological Observatory, Haikou 510203, China **Taizhou Meteorological Observatory, Taizhou 225300, China ***Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong 99907, China (Received 31 January 2020, Accepted 15 September 2020) e mail : [email protected] सार — हालांिक काफी अययन ने सािबत िकया है िक उणकिटबंधीय चक्रवात (टीसी) के माग र् और तीता का पूवार्नमानु संख्यामक मौसम पूवार्नुमान (NWP) मॉडल से प्रा जानकारी पर बहुत अिधक िनभरर् करता है, कु छ शोध से पता चला है िक पिमी उरी प्रशांत महासागर (WNP) बेिसन म NWP मॉडल उणकिटबंधीय चक्रवात की उपि का िकतना अछा पूवार्नमानु लगाते ह। NWP मॉडल द्वारा WNP बेिसन म उणकिटबंधीय चक्रवात उपि पूवार्नमानु की िवशेषताओं को समझन े के िलए, यह अययन ऐितहािसक आंकड़ े का उपयोग करते हुए उणकिटबंधीय चक्रवात के बनने की पहचान हेतु मापदंड का एक सेट प्रा करता है तथा 2013 और 2015 के बीच ECMWF मॉडल आंकड़ े के आधार पर इसे सयािपत करता है - पिरणाम बताते ह िक प्रभाव सीमा मानदंड के आधार पर अपनाए गए प्रितशतता मूय का एगोिरदम के प्रदशनर् पर महवपूण र् प्रभाव पड़ता है। एक िविश अंतराल पर प्रभाव सीमा का उिचत समायोजन प्रभावी प से टीसी की उपि के पूवार्नुमान को बेहतर बना सकता है। उदाहरण के िलए, WNP बेिसन म पूवार्नमानु पिरणाम 850 hPa तर पर सापेिक्षक भ्रिमलता छोटे -
A WRF-Based Tool for Forecast Sensitivity to the Initial Perturbation: the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations Versus Th
JANUARY 2017 Y U E T A L . 187 A WRF-Based Tool for Forecast Sensitivity to the Initial Perturbation: The Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations versus the First Singular Vector Method and Comparison to MM5 a,b c,d a e f HUIZHEN YU, HONGLI WANG, ZHIYONG MENG, MU MU, XIANG-YU HUANG, g AND XIN ZHANG a Laboratory for Climate and Ocean–Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China b Qingdao Meteorological Bureau, Shandong, China c Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado d Global Systems Division, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado e Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China f Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, Singapore g IBM Research–China, Beijing, China (Manuscript received 12 September 2015, in final form 22 October 2016) ABSTRACT A forecast sensitivity to initial perturbation (FSIP) analysis tool for the WRF Model was developed. The tool includes two modules respectively based on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method and the first singular vector (FSV) method. The FSIP tool can be used to identify regions of sensitivity for targeted observation research and important influential weather systems for a given forecast metric. This paper compares the performance of the FSIP tool to its MM5 counterpart, and demonstrates how CNOP, local CNOP (a kind of conditional nonlinear suboptimal perturbation), and FSV were detected using their evolutions of cost function. The column-integrated features of the perturbations were generally similar between the two models. More significant differences were apparent in the details of their vertical distribu- tion. -
Capital Adequacy (E) Task Force RBC Proposal Form
Capital Adequacy (E) Task Force RBC Proposal Form [ ] Capital Adequacy (E) Task Force [ x ] Health RBC (E) Working Group [ ] Life RBC (E) Working Group [ ] Catastrophe Risk (E) Subgroup [ ] Investment RBC (E) Working Group [ ] SMI RBC (E) Subgroup [ ] C3 Phase II/ AG43 (E/A) Subgroup [ ] P/C RBC (E) Working Group [ ] Stress Testing (E) Subgroup DATE: 08/31/2020 FOR NAIC USE ONLY CONTACT PERSON: Crystal Brown Agenda Item # 2020-07-H TELEPHONE: 816-783-8146 Year 2021 EMAIL ADDRESS: [email protected] DISPOSITION [ x ] ADOPTED WG 10/29/20 & TF 11/19/20 ON BEHALF OF: Health RBC (E) Working Group [ ] REJECTED NAME: Steve Drutz [ ] DEFERRED TO TITLE: Chief Financial Analyst/Chair [ ] REFERRED TO OTHER NAIC GROUP AFFILIATION: WA Office of Insurance Commissioner [ ] EXPOSED ________________ ADDRESS: 5000 Capitol Blvd SE [ ] OTHER (SPECIFY) Tumwater, WA 98501 IDENTIFICATION OF SOURCE AND FORM(S)/INSTRUCTIONS TO BE CHANGED [ x ] Health RBC Blanks [ x ] Health RBC Instructions [ ] Other ___________________ [ ] Life and Fraternal RBC Blanks [ ] Life and Fraternal RBC Instructions [ ] Property/Casualty RBC Blanks [ ] Property/Casualty RBC Instructions DESCRIPTION OF CHANGE(S) Split the Bonds and Misc. Fixed Income Assets into separate pages (Page XR007 and XR008). REASON OR JUSTIFICATION FOR CHANGE ** Currently the Bonds and Misc. Fixed Income Assets are included on page XR007 of the Health RBC formula. With the implementation of the 20 bond designations and the electronic only tables, the Bonds and Misc. Fixed Income Assets were split between two tabs in the excel file for use of the electronic only tables and ease of printing. However, for increased transparency and system requirements, it is suggested that these pages be split into separate page numbers beginning with year-2021. -
Indigenous Knowledge and Endogenous Actions for Building Tribal Resilience After Typhoon Soudelor in Northern Taiwan
sustainability Article Indigenous Knowledge and Endogenous Actions for Building Tribal Resilience after Typhoon Soudelor in Northern Taiwan Su-Hsin Lee 1 and Yin-Jen Chen 2,* 1 Department of Geography, National Taiwan Normal University, 162, Section 1, Heping E. Rd., Taipei City 10610, Taiwan; [email protected] 2 Graduate Institute of Earth Science, Chinese Culture University, 55, Hwa-Kang Road, Yang-Ming-Shan, Taipei City 11114, Taiwan * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: Indigenous peoples often face significant vulnerabilities to climate risks, yet the capacity of a social-ecological system (SES) to resilience is abstracted from indigenous and local knowledge. This research explored how the Tayal people in the Wulai tribes located in typhoon disaster areas along Nanshi River used indigenous knowledge as tribal resilience. It applied empirical analysis from secondary data on disaster relief and in-depth interviews, demonstrating how indigenous people’s endogenous actions helped during post-disaster reconstructing. With the intertwined concepts of indigenous knowledge, SESs, and tribes’ cooperation, the result presented the endogenous actions for tribal resilience. In addition, indigenous knowledge is instigated by the Qutux Niqan of mutual assistance and symbiosis among the Wulai tribes, and there is a need to build joint cooperation through local residence, indigenous people living outside of their tribes, and religious or social groups. The findings of tribal resilience after a typhoon disaster of co-production in the Wulai, Lahaw, and Fushan tribes include the importance of historical context, how indigenous people turn to their local knowledge rather than just only participating in disaster relief, and how they produce indigenous tourism for indigenous knowledge inheritance. -
The Senate Nineteenth Northern Marianas Commonwealth Legislature P.O
The Senate Nineteenth Northern Marianas Commonwealth Legislature P.O. Box 500129 Saipan, MP 96950 October 06, 2015 The Honorable Eloy S. Inos Governor Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Capital Hill Saipan, MP 96950 Dear Governor Inos: I have the honor of transmitting herewith a certified copy of Senate Resolution No. 19-16, entitled, "Requesting the Department of Public Lands to allow the deferment of payments on public land leases for a period of three months to assist the lessees cope with the additional costs as result of the damages caused by Typhoon Soudelor," which was adopted by the Senate of the Nineteenth Northern Marianas Commonwealth Legislature. Sincerely, ~~Senate Clerk u Attachment The Senate Nineteenth Northern Marianas Commonwealth Legislature P.o. Box 500129 Saip~ MP 96950 October 06, 2015 The Honorable Joseph P. Deleon Guerrero Speaker House of Representatives 19th Northern Marianas Commonwealth Legislature Saipan, MP 96950 Dear Speaker Deleon Guerrero: I have the honor of transmitting herewith a certified copy of Senate Resolution No. 19-16, entitled, "Requesting the Department of Public Lands to allow the deferment of payments on public land leases for a period of three months to assist the lessees cope with the additional costs as result of the damages caused by Typhoon Soudelor," which was adopted by the Senate of the Nineteenth Northern Marianas Commonwealth Legislature. g~ Senate Clerk Attachment THE SENATE NINETEENTH NORTHERN MARIANAS COMMONWEALTH LEGISLATURE SENATE RESOLUTION NO. 19-16 Introduced by: Senator Justo S. Quitugua, Senator Arnold I. Palacios, Senator Sixto K. Igisomar, Senator Victor B. Hocog, Senator Steve K. Mesngon, Senator Teresita A.