ARF Annual Security Outlook 2020
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Table of Contents Foreword 5 Executive Summary 7 Australia 9 Brunei Darussalam 25 Cambodia 33 Canada 45 China 65 European Union 79 India 95 Indonesia 111 Japan 129 Lao PDR 143 Malaysia 153 Mongolia 171 Myanmar 179 New Zealand 183 The Philippines 195 Republic of Korea 219 Russia 231 Singapore 239 Sri Lanka 253 Thailand 259 United States 275 Viet Nam 305 ANNUAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2020 ASEAN Regional Forum 4 ANNUAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2020 ASEAN Regional Forum FOREWORD Complicated changes are taking place in the regional and global geostrategic landscape. Uncertainties and complexities have been further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. We are deeply saddened by the loss of lives and sufferings caused by this dreadful pandemic. Nevertheless, we are determined to enhance solidarity and cooperation towards effective efforts to respond to the pandemic as well as prevent future outbreaks of this kind. Since its founding in 1994, the ARF has become a key and inclusive Forum working towards peace, security and stability in the region. Through its activities, the ARF has made notable progress in fostering dialogue and cooperation as well as mutual trust and confidence among the Participants. In face of the difficulties and challenges brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, ARF Participants have exerted significant efforts to sustain the momentum of dialogue and cooperation, while moving forward with new proposals and initiatives to respond to existing and emerging challenges. At this juncture, it is all the more important to reaffirm the ARF as a key venue to strengthen dialogue, build strategic trust and enhance practical cooperation among its Participants. In that spirit, Viet Nam is pleased to publish the 21st edition of the Annual Security Outlook. I believe that the Outlook is an important contribution to promoting mutual understanding and confidence building through enhancing transparency and facilitating the exchange of views among the ARF Participants. And for that, I wish to thank all ARF Participants for their support and contribution to this year’s ASO. By constructively working together, we will overcome challenges and see the opportunity for lasting peace, stability, security, cooperation and prosperity in our region and beyond. Pham Binh Minh Chair of the 27th ASEAN Regional Forum Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Foreign Affairs 5 Socialist Republic of Viet Nam ANNUAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2020 ASEAN Regional Forum 6 ANNUAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2020 ASEAN Regional Forum EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The 21st edition of the ASEAN Regional Forum to further practical cooperation to enhance Annual Security Outlook (ARF ASO) includes preparedness and response capacity. On 22 voluntary submissions from the ARF maritime security, the Participants underscore Participants. This is a record-high number of the importance of maintaining and promoting submissions to date. peace, security, stability, freedom of navigation and overflight in the region, at the same time This publication provides a compilation of the emphasising the importance of upholding Participants’ perspectives on the contemporary international law, particularly the 1982 UNCLOS. regional landscape as well as their expectations In addition, the Participants also acknowledge on the future role of the ARF. To promote the need to address other maritime challenges transparency and trust, the Participants share such as piracy, people smuggling, drug information on their respective national security trafficking and the protection of the marine and defence policies. And in highlighting their environment. On ICTs security, while recognising national contributions towards ARF activities, the opportunities brought about by ICTs in the Participants continue to reaffirm their terms of economic and social development, the commitment to enhance cooperation in the Participants also share their concern over the priority areas of cooperation, which include increasing cyber threats, which require closer counterterrorism and transnational crime, non- cooperation among countries to respond. proliferation and disarmament, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, maritime security On the future role of the ARF, the Participants and security in the use of information and express the hope that the ARF could do more to communication technology (ICT). reach its potential and become action-oriented, with more concrete activities implemented on In general, the Participants acknowledge the the ground. It is in this spirit that the Ha Noi Plan challenges and risks posed to the global and of Action II (2020-2025) has been developed, regional geostrategic landscape, particularly by which will guide the Forum’s cooperation, or under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, development and activities for the next 5 years. as well as the dynamics in major power relations. The Participants also reiterate their support Non-traditional challenges such as terrorism, for ASEAN to remain as the primary driving smuggling, natural disasters, and cybercrime, force in steering the ARF to develop further as which no single country can tackle and overcome a central pillar in the evolving regional security on its own, have also been widely mentioned architecture. as common concerns. On counterterrorism and transnational crime, the Participants stress the importance of preventive measures such as information sharing and capacity-building in countering these threats. On non-proliferation and disarmament, the Participants reaffirm their support for and continued participation in international efforts on non-proliferation and disarmament. On humanitarian and disaster 7 relief, the Participants underline the need ANNUAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2020 ASEAN Regional Forum 8 ANNUAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2020 ASEAN Regional Forum AUSTRALIA 1. Overview of the Regional Security Environment Australia remains committed to working with its Indo-Pacific partners to support an open and inclusive region of stable, prosperous, sovereign and resilient states that cooperate on shared interests and challenges. ASEAN, and the ASEAN-led architecture, has a central role in supporting the rules and norms that have underpinned regional security and prosperity for more than 50 years. Australia will continue to promote an open, inclusive and prosperous region defined by respect for international law, sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. ASEAN is a key partner for Australia in this regard, and we are committed to supporting the implementation of the 2019 ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific. The COVID-19 pandemic is now the overriding challenge for the region. Its humanitarian and economic impacts threaten to: reverse hard-won development gains; retard trade and investment flows; lead to instability in some countries; and increase vulnerability to other risks, such as natural disasters. The pandemic could add momentum to powerful drivers of change that were converging in the Indo- Pacific before COVID-19. Shifts in the distribution of power across the region could accelerate, and pressure on rules, norms and institutions could become more acute. The US-China relationship is under further strain. Meanwhile, the pandemic could exacerbate other challenges such as: territorial disputes; nuclear and missile proliferation; terrorism and returning foreign fighters; malicious cyber activity; people-smuggling and other transnational crime. Technological change, challenges to globalisation and climate change also continue to require both regional and global responses. The global nature of the COVID-19 pandemic means that no country in our region can overcome this unprecedented challenge alone. Even as Australia continues to address COVID-19 at home, we are committed to working with regional partners to mitigate the impacts of the crisis and to support regional recovery. Australia’s approach centres on: ensuring our domestic policy settings remain fit-for-purpose; strengthening bilateral cooperation with regional partners to coordinate our respective efforts and build resilience; pivoting our development assistance program to respond to the pandemic; and helping build a pathway toward regional economic recovery. Australia will work through regional and international forums to pursue comprehensive, balanced responses in accordance with international law and norms. We are committed to the central role of ASEAN in regional architecture, including as the convenor of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). ASEAN and the ASEAN-centred institutions sit at the heart of the Indo-Pacific, geographically, diplomatically and strategically. Through the ARF and other groupings, particularly the East Asia Summit (EAS), Australia seeks to ensure that all regional countries, large and small, have a voice on regional issues. With its well-established program of activities focused on confidence building 9 ANNUAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2020 ASEAN Regional Forum measures and a growing preventive diplomacy agenda, the ARF can help manage tensions, set norms of acceptable behaviour, and bolster regional resilience. The Informal ASEAN-Australia Defence Ministers’ Meeting on 19 February 2020 and 32nd ASEAN- Australia Forum on 18 May 2020 reaffirmed Australia’s commitment to ASEAN and reinforced our Strategic Partnership. Our engagement with ASEAN and ASEAN-led frameworks - guided by the Plan of Action to Implement the ASEAN-Australia Strategic Partnership (2020-2024) - is focused on building trust, transparency and habits of cooperation across Southeast Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific. Australia’s 2020 Vision