ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM ANNUAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM ANNUAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 Table of Contents Foreword 5 Executive Summary 6 Australia 8 Brunei Darussalam 22 Cambodia 26 Canada 31 China 46 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 62 European Union 67 Indonesia 78 Japan 97 Malaysia 110 Myanmar 136 New Zealand 140 The Philippines 150 Republic of Korea 159 The Russian Federation 169 Singapore 175 Thailand 187 The United States of America 196 Vietnam 221 ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM ANNUAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 Foreword s Chairman of the 22nd ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), it gives me great pleasure in presenting the A ARF Annual Security Outlook 2015, comprising 19 contributions by members of the ARF. First published in the year 2000, the ARF Annual Security Outlook serves as an essential instrument for the promotion of confidence building through greater transparency. The voluntary sharing of information and perspectives on political and security issues compounding the region, continues to strengthen mutual understanding among its members. This is the essence of the ARF framework that we have been advocating since its inception in 1994. The ARF has certainly made a big contribution towards the sustained period of peace and stability, which led to greater level of prosperity in the region. The year 2015 is a historic and a significant year for ASEAN as it is the year the ASEAN Community is to be realised. As Chairman of ASEAN and concurrently the Chairman of the ARF, we intend to work towards the promotion of regional peace and security through moderation as a shared value in addressing conflict and finding solutions to issues concerning regional peace and security. I take this opportunity to express my deepest appreciation to all ARF Members for the sustained commitment to ensure the successful implementation of the Hanoi Plan of Action to Implement the ARF Vision Statement as well as other related Work Plans in support of the ARF process. Lastly, I wish to convey my sincere thanks to all members of the ARF for the support given in the publication of the ARF Annual Security Outlook 2015. ANIFAH AMAN Chairman of the 22nd ASEAN Regional Forum Minister of Foreign Affairs, Malaysia Kuala Lumpur, 6 August 2015 5 ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM ANNUAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 Executive Summary Since the first publication of ASEAN Regional ARF Members shared the view that the Forum Annual Security Outlook (ARF ASO) back comprehensive multilateral cooperation including in the year 2000, the scope of publication and through the ARF framework had directly contributed the depth of information shared have significantly to the region’s growth and prosperity. At the improved. The number of annual submission has same time and recognising the increased inter- also increased. dependency of countries in dealing with security issues, ARF Members underlined the necessity The ARF ASO 2015 is a compilation of information to mount an effective and coherent international and shared perspectives of 19 ARF Members response to deal with the substantially more highlighting political and security issues of common complex security challenges than ever before. concerns compounding the region as well as the future development of the ARF. This publication is The contributions highlighted the traditional and reflective of the role of the ARF as the primary forum non-traditional security threats faced by the region to foster constructive dialogue and consultation and called for strengthening of cooperation in among its 27 Members. order to address these challenges effectively. 6 ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM ANNUAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 Aside from maritime security and non-proliferation The contributions are also reflective of the support issues, ARF Members also highlighted the need of the ARF Members for this platform to be a more to strengthen cooperation in the area of cyber robust mechanism to promote regional peace and security, understandably to counter the threat of stability by becoming more strategic and action- terrorism and extremism which have become more oriented in responding to the need of the region. sophisticated in recent times. This would ensure that the ARF process, namely the transition from confidence building measures, ARF Members also called for improved coordination to preventive diplomacy and ultimately to conflict and better management of resources to ensure resolution, continues to be relevant in light of the complementarities of the various efforts in various on-going discussion on regional architecture, with regional mechanisms such as East Asia Summit ASEAN at its core. (EAS) and ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus). 7 ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM ANNUAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 AUSTRALIA Australia I. OVERVIEW OF REGIONAL SECURITY ASEAN-centred institutions have played the key role ENVIRONMENT in building trust and habits of cooperation amongst countries in the region. Given the geopolitical A prosperous and peaceful Indo-Pacific region is shifts in the region, more weight will be placed core to Australia’s economic and strategic interests. on these institutions in the future to help manage The best environment for the region is one which tensions and set the norms of acceptable strategic promotes strategic stability, open societies and behaviour, in the region’s collective interests. economies, and economic integration. The region currently faces multi-faceted and evolving security Australia welcomes the work of ASEAN’s 2015 challenge. These include traditional security issues High Level Task Force in looking at the future of relating to trust, maritime disputes, and changing regional architecture and its consultations with power dynamics. They also include non-traditional ASEAN dialogue partners. This year is the 10th security threats posed by terrorism, including anniversary of the East Asia Summit. We look foreign terrorist fighters, natural disasters, and forward to working with ASEAN to strengthen human pandemics. the EAS to help it address emerging regional challenges. We remain committed to ministerial Constructive and forward-looking bilateral relations, dialogue and practical cooperation on security particularly among major powers, are fundamental issues through the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) to addressing these challenges. For Australia, our and the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus alliance with the United States is the cornerstone of (ADMM-Plus) process. our strategic architecture. A strong and consistent US presence in the region will continue to be South China Sea important in providing confidence in the region’s changing strategic landscape as it has in the Australia has a legitimate interest in the maintenance past. of peace and stability, respect for international law, unimpeded trade and freedom of navigation and Regional institutions play a complementary role overflight in the South China Sea. Australia does in promoting a stable and resilient regional order. not take sides on competing territorial claims in Australia appreciates ASEAN’s leadership in the South China Sea but is concerned that land establishing our existing regional frameworks. reclamation activity by claimants raises tensions in 8 ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM ANNUAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2015 the region and calls on all claimant states to halt through peaceful, non-coercive means, and in land reclamation. Australia is particularly concerned accordance with international law. We support the at the prospect of militarisation of artificial islands or development of better means of military-to-military structures. We are also concerned that all countries communication and preventive diplomacy amongst respect the right, under international law, to freedom relevant countries, in order to build confidence and AUSTRALIA of overflight in international airspace. Recent events reduce the scope for misunderstandings. underline the importance of states clarifying their maritime claims and resolving disputes peacefully, Korean Peninsula consistent with international law. Australia strongly opposes the use of intimidation, aggression or Australia is also concerned about the situation in coercion to advance any country’s claims or the Korean Peninsula. The Democratic People’s unilaterally alter the status quo. We urge claimants Republic of Korea (DPRK) continues to contravene to exercise restraint, takes steps to ease tensions UNSC resolutions in the development and and refrain from provocative actions that could proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, escalate tensions. We call on governments to clarify posing a direct threat to international peace and and pursue territorial claims and accompanying security. This was highlighted by its dangerous firing maritime rights in accordance with international law, of over 100 short and medium-range rockets into including the United Nations Convention on the international waters during 2014, and its restart Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and support the right in late 2013 of a plutonium-producing reactor of all states to seek to resolve disputes peacefully, following its largest nuclear test to date in February including through arbitration. We encourage 2013. Australia calls on the DPRK to comply with practical implementation of commitments under the its international obligations under relevant UNSC Declaration on Conduct of the Parties in the South resolutions. The DPRK needs to take sincere China Sea and urge China and ASEAN member and concrete steps to show it is serious about countries to make early progress on a substantive