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Model Portfolio Update Model Portfolio update January 21, 2016 LatestDeal Team Model – PortfolioAt Your Service Large cap Midcap Name of the company Weightage(%) Name of the company Weightage(%) Auto 14 Aviation 6 Tata Motor DVR 4 Interglobe Aviation 6 Bosch 3 Auto 6 Maruti 4 Bharat Forge 6 EICHER Motors 3 BFSI 6 BFSI 23 BjjFiBajaj Finserve 6 HDFC Bank 8 Capital Goods 6 Axis Bank 3 HDFC 8 Bharat Electronics 6 Bajaj Finance 4 Cement 6 Capital Goods 5 Ramco Cement 6 L & T 5 Consumer 24 Cement 3 Symphony 6 UltraTech Cement 3 Supreme Ind 6 FMCG/Consumer 14 Kansai Nerolac 6 ITC 7 Pidilite 6 United Spirits 2 FMCG 8 Asian Paints 5 Nestle 8 IT 21 Infrastructure 8 Infosys 10 NBCC 8 TCS 8 Oil & Gas 6 Wipro 3 Meida 2 CtlCastrol 6 Zee Entertainment 2 Logistics 6 Metal 2 Container Corporation of India 6 Tata Steel 2 Pharma 12 Oil & Gas 4 Natco Pharma 6 Reliance Industries 4 Torrent Pharma 6 Pharma 12 Textile 6 Lupin 5 Arvind 6 Dr Reddys 4 Total 100 Aurobindo Pharma 3 Total 100 • Exclusion - Eicher Motors, Bajaj Finance (transferred to large cap), PVR, • Exclusion- State Bank of India, Bharti Airtel and ONGC CARE, Cummins & Shree Cement • Inclusion – Eicher Motors, Bajaj Finance (transferred from midcap), Wipro, • Inclusion – Ramco Cement, Bajaj Finserv, Supreme Industries, Indigo, Reliance Industries & Aurobindo Pharma Pidilite, Bharat Electronics and Bharat Forge Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research *Diversified portfolio - Combination of 70% large cap and 30% midcap portfolio OutperformanceDeal Team – At continues Your Service across all portfolios… • Our indicative large cap equity model portfolio (“Quality -20”) has • In the large cap space we continue to remain positive on pharma & IT. continued to deliver an impressive return (inclusive of dividends) of 86.5% With the recent correction, we also remain overweight on BFSI and FMCG since its inception (June 21, 2011) vis-à-vis the index return of ~51.8% • We continue to remain underweight on metals and oil & gas with our only during the same period, an outperformance of ~35%. This validates our pick being Reliance Industries and Tata Steel, which have a better risk- thesis of selecting companies with sound business fundamentals that reward opportunity. We expect PSU banks to underperform next year form the core theme of our portfolio. Our midcap portfolio (“Consistent- owing to steep asset quality woes ahead. In the private banking space, we 15”) outperformed the benchmark by ~2x since June 2011. Our prefer large banks with a strong retail presence. We continue to remain consistent outperformance demonstrates our superior stock picking ability overweight to neutral on pure play defensives (IT, FMCG) as secular as markets in CY15 aligned to our view of favourable risk-reward, good earnings coupled with sector rotation could lead to consolidation in near franchisee vs. reward-at-any-risk businesses. Some key performers of our term valuations and offer stock specific opportunities. We remain positive portfolio are Lupin, HDFC Bank and TCS in the large cap portfolio while on auto, pharma, capital goods and infrastructure Natco Pharma, Cummins and Shree Cement have delivered stupendous • Among individual names, we are strongly overweight on Infosys, TCS in returns in the midcap portfolio theITspace,HDFCandHDFCBankintheBFSIspace,ITCandNestléin • We reiterate the SIP mode of investment as the preferred mode of theconsumerspaceandL&T&NBCCintheinfraspace deployment given the current volatile market conditions. We highlight that the SIP return of our portfolio has consistently outperformed the indices, House view on Index which affirms our belief in the staggered and systematic approach of • We expect Sensex EPS to grow 7.5% and 20% to | 1462 and | 1755 investment amid market volatility during FY16E and FY17E, respectively (CAGR of 14% in FY15-17E). We • Global headwinds have been a spoiler for markets as we tread into the assign a P/E multiple of 16.5x on FY17E EPS to arrive at a fair value of global growth re-alignment zone wherein, on the one hand, US is showing 29000 for the Sensex and Nifty estimated to reach 8800 signs of improvement while, on the other, behemoths like China are adjusting to declining output. Post the Fed rate hike, concerns on China’s hard landing and tepid domestic economic data points have weighed on Strategy 2016 - Sensex & Nifty Target investors’ sentiments. Furthermore, the sharp sell-off in Chinese markets FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E have triggered a domino effect in financial markets across the globe. Sensex EPS 1365135914621755 Amid this volatility, though, India remains in a sweet spot on the cusp of a Growth (%) 17.1% -0.4% 7.6% 20.1% domestic recovery with relatively resilient consumption and savings Target Multiple 16.5x patterns. We believe companies with reasonable earnings visibility & valuations will find flavour among investors Sensex Target - December 2016 29000 Corresponding Nifty Target 8800 • Given the valuations re-rating, we have aligned our portfolio to capture the new opportunities available in the market. We have transferred Eicher Motors and Bajaj Finance that were earlier a part of the midcap portfolio tothelargecapportfolio.WehaveaddedWipro&AurobindoPharmain our large cap portfolio and replaced ONGC with Reliance Industries. We have also added Interglobe Aviation in our midcap portfolio, which is a clear bfiibeneficiary of fllifalling crudde prices. AtApart from shu ffling stktocks, we have also increased/reduced allocation weights of some companies Performance*Deal Team – soAt farYour … Service Portfolio performance since inception Portfolio performance since last update (Oct 2015) 0 150 Large Cap Midcap Diversified 120.3 -2 125 99.1 -4 100 86.5 -6 % % 75 59.4 -8 51.8 55.4 -7.3 50 -10 -9.1 -10.1 -9.9 -12 25 -11.5 -12.2 -14 0 Large Cap Midcap Diversified Portfolio Benchmark Portfolio Benchmark • The large cap equity model portfolio-“Quality-20” continued to heavily • Since the last update, our large cap portfolio was adversely impacted outperform the index with ~86.5% return since its inception (June 21, mainly due to subdued export earnings of frontline companies. However, 2011) vis-à-vis index return of ~51.8% in the same period. Our sustained the midcap portfolio exhibited some resilience to the negativity in preference for high quality names has aided this outperformance on a markets. Though the index lagged, the performance of Bajaj Finance and consistent basis. We continue to be rewarded for our meticulous Arvind helped the outperformance in our midcap portfolio approach towards stock selection while we endeavour to emulate the • Our Large cap portfolio lagged the index returns, delivering -12.2% vs. broader index return of -10.2% for the BSE since July, 21, 2015. The drag was on • The “Consistent-15” midcap portfolio recovered lost ground and surged account of underperformance from Dr Reddy’s and Larsen & Toubro. ahead of its benchmark index (2x Index returns) However, the negativity was partially offset by positive performance in • The diversified portfolio (combination of Q-20/C-15 in a 70/30 ratio) has Infosys and Tata Motors DVR also outperformed its benchmark indices, given the overall outperformance of both portfolios Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research TopDeal movers* Team –soAt far… Your Service Large cap Midcap Diversified Gainers Gainers 350 200 350 Gainers 300 300 250 160 200 250 120 (%) 150 ) ) 200 %% ( 100 (% 50 80 150 0 40 100 TCS Lupin Lupin 50 0 HDFC Bank Axis Bank* Axis 0 ins sind sai lac* Motors (DVR) Motors ma* ia* ent* ree nk* tco mm uu rr nn oo aa dd Lupin Natco HDFC TCS Cummins mm Ba Sh Na In Ka Ind Tat Pha Ner Ce Cum Pharma* Bank India* Large cap Midcap Diversified Draggers Draggers Draggers 0 0 0 -5 -5 -8 -10 -10 (%) -16 -15 -15 (%) -24 (%) -20 -20 -32 -25 -25 -30 Star -40 India* Ferro* CARE* Castrol Eicher Nestle* United State Bharti Tata Steel Dr Motors* Dr Reddys Star CARE* Tata Steel Bharti Spirits Bank of Airtel Ltd Ltd Reddys Lab Ferro* Ltd Airtel Ltd India Lab Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research , *Starred stocks have been included in the portfolio since the last rejig in July 2012/May, August ,DecemberDecember 2013/ April, June, December 2014/ May 2015/July 2015/October 2015. Rest all are since inception in June 2011 Performance*Deal Team – soAt farYour in SIPService mode … 8,500,000 7,500,000 ,565 99 6,500,000 10,51 | 5,600,000 5,600,000 5,600,000 5,500,000 7,099,578 51,648 2,129 ,390,140 191,278 11 00 6 4, 500, 000 6, 6, 5,9 3,500,000 Largecap Midcap Divesified Investment Value of Investment in Portfolio Value if invested in Benchmark • Systematic investments at regular intervals in all our three portfolios have outperformed their respective benchmarks acting as a perfect shield tothe volatility encountered by the market in the last year • Assuming | 1,00,000 invested as SIP at the end of every month • Start date of SIP is June 30, 2011 Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research What’sDeal Team in, what’s – At Yourout? Service What'sin? s in? Name Portfolio Weight Eicher Motors Shifted from Midcap to Largecap 3% Bajaj Finance Ltd. Shifted from Midcap to Largecap 4% Wipro Largecap 3% Reliance Industries Largecap 4% AbidPhAurobindo Pharma Largecap 3% Interglobe Aviation Midcap 6% Bajaj Finserve Midcap 6% Bharat Electronics Midcap 6% Supreme Ind Midcap 6% Pidilite Midcap 6% Ramco Cements Midcap 6% Bharat Forge Midcap 6% What's out ? Name Portfolio Weight SBI Largecap 6% ONGC Largecap 3% Bharti Airtel Largecap 3% CARE Midcap 6% Cummins Midcap 6% Shree Cement Midcap 6% PVR Midcap 8% Source: ICICIdirect.com Research TheDeal story Team of stocks…– At Your Service Wipro (Wipro) Reliance Industries (RELIND) • Wipro could return to industry average growth led by bottoming of • RIL is the largest Indian private company operating across hydrocarbons portfolio related concerns, leadership change and helped by account exploration & production, petroleum refining & marketing, petrochemicals, mining initiatives, improved deal traction & win ratios, large deal closures textiles, retail and telecommunication.
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