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Bajaj Finserv (BAFINS) Bajaj Finserv (BAFINS) CMP: | 5983 Target: | 7000 (17%) Target Period: 12 months BUY October 22, 2020 Steady revival & holdco discount remains favourable Bajaj Finserv reported steady traction in its lending business. With slower premium accretion for Bajaj Finserv, consolidated topline was up 5.8% YoY to | 15052 crore, lower compared to earlier run rate, due to moderation in the lending business. While the insurance business witnessed an improvement in earnings, contingent provisioning of | 1370 crore impacted consolidated earnings reported at | 986 crore, down 18% YoY. Particulars Amid lockdown & risk aversion, AUM remained flat at | 137300 crore. Particu lar Am o u n t Subsequently, NII growth came in at 4% YoY to | 4158 crore. Contingent Market C apitalization | 93801 crore Result Update Result provision of | 1370 crore was partially offset by tight cost control, leading to Net worth | 32243 crore 14% YoY growth in operating profit to | 3005 crore. PAT came in at | 965 52 week H/L (|) 10297/3986 crore, down 36% YoY and flat QoQ. Asset quality improved amid standstill E quity capital | 80 C rore classification with GNPA at 1.03% vs 1.4% in Q1FY21. F ace value | 5 DII Holding (% ) 6.8 The pick-up seen in premium accretion in general insurance was at | 4156 FII Holding (% ) 7.7 crore, down 3% YoY. Crop insurance premium broadly stayed flat YoY at | 1759 crore. Non crop premium declined ~6% YoY to | 2397 crore, led by Key Highlights de-growth in CV & two-wheeler due to base effect. Cautious approach led 10% de-growth in group health business though retail health insurance Healthy revival witnessed in insurance increased 28.5% in H1FY21. Experience on claims remained mixed with business supporting consolidated claim ratio at 74.2%; motor claims being lower partially offset by rise in revenue health claims. Steady claims coupled with tight cost control led combined Moratorium book reduced from 15.7% ratio to come in at 97.4%, leading to underwriting profit of | 29 crore. to 8%. AUM growth guided to pick up Investment income remained healthy at | 414 crore, leading to 13% YoY to 25-27% from FY22E growth in earnings at | 332 crore, led by lower tax rate. Life insurance premium grew 20% YoY to | 2677 crore, led by 11% YoY Upgrade from HOLD to BUY with traction in NBP at | 1372 crore. Demand for protection and guaranteed revised target price of | 7000 products led individual rated premium growth at 19% YoY to | 535 crore. Group premium de-grew by 21% YoY to | 338 crore, led by lower credit disbursement. PAT came lower at | 98 crore, due to new business strain and lower capital gain. AUM increased 10% YoY to | 64367 crore. Embedded value is at | 14527 crore in H1FY21. Commenced operations with Karur Research Equity Retail Vysya Bank and IDFC First Bank during the quarter. Research Analyst – Kajal Gandhi Valuation & Outlook [email protected] Leaving FY21E behind, front-loading provisions for asset quality stress, Bajaj Vishal Narnolia Finance management has guided for strong improvement of 25-27% growth [email protected] in AUM and credit cost at 160-180 bps from FY22E. Tight control on cost and focus on improving collection bodes well in a changed environment. Yash Batra [email protected] Securities ICICI Demand for protection & guaranteed products is seen driving life insurance premium and VNB margins ahead. Higher acceptance of health insurance bodes well for premium accretion ahead, though claims are seen to be gradually increasing as normalcy resumes. With plans to enter into asset management, license for AMC has been applied. Given anticipation of healthy growth in earnings at ~19% CAGR in FY21-Y22E and prevailing steep holdco discount, we upgrade our target to | 7000/share (earlier | 6400) based on SOTP valuation, implying a multiple of ~23x on FY22E consolidated earnings. Hence, we upgrade the stock from HOLD to BUY. s Key Financial Summary | crore F Y18 F Y19 F Y20 F Y21E F Y22E C AG R (F Y19-22E ) R evenue 32,456.8 42,608.2 54,351.5 56,371.0 59,387.4 12% PBT 6,105.5 8,069.5 8,300.2 8,206.7 10,425.9 9% PAT 2657.0 3133.5 3367.7 3967.4 4780.3 15% E P S (|) 167.0 198.1 269.7 249.3 300.4 BV (|) 1302.1 1498.5 2026.3 2273.9 2572.6 P /E 35.6 30.0 22.1 23.9 19.8 P /BV 4.6 4.0 2.9 2.6 2.3 R oA 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.3 R oE 14.5 14.1 15.3 11.6 12.4 S Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Bajaj Finserv ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis Q2FY21 Q2FY21E Q2FY20 YoY (%) Q1FY21 QoQ (%) Comments Lower traction in motor insurance kept premium accretion General Insurance 4155.6 5220.7 4,279.3 -2.9 2,289.1 81.5 muted New business premium growth came in at 11% YoY led Life Insurance 2677.1 2638.0 2,235.6 19.7 1,700 57.5 by traction in individual rated business Net premium earned 6832.7 7858.8 6,514.9 4.9 3,988.8 71.3 Investment and other 2592.7 2045.2 2,220 16.8 3,667 -29.3 income Reinsurance Ceded 420.5 471.5 262 60.4 294 42.9 Reserve for unexpired 478.8 200.0 568 -15.6 -280 -271.0 risk Total Insurance 8526.2 9232.5 7,904.9 7.9 7,641.3 11.6 Retail financing 6523.3 7038.0 6,323 3.2 6,650 -1.9 AUM growth flattish at 1% YoY Windmill 9.9 11.7 12.3 -20.0 7.8 26.2 Investment and 47.6 200.0 410 -88.4 42 14.4 others Total 15051.6 16130.3 14,224 5.8 14,192 6.1 Interest and Finance 2340.2 664.6 2,313.2 1.2 2,395.2 -2.3 Charges Other Exp 10554.8 13099.4 9,284.6 13.7 9,228.7 14.4 Provision of | 1370 crore related to Covid Total Expenses 12895.0 13764.1 11,597.9 11.2 11,623.9 10.9 PBT 2156.6 2366.2 2,626.4 -17.9 2,568.1 -16.0 Impact of elevated provision offset by cost control and PAT 986.3 1093.2 1,203.7 -18.1 1,215.2 -18.8 lower claims Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 2: Change in estimates F Y21E F Y22E (| Crore) O ld New % C hang e O ld New % C hang e Total Income 52,783.4 56,371.0 6.8 60099.8 59,387.4 -1.2 PBT 9,239.4 8,206.7 -11.2 10,987.8 10,425.9 -5.1 PAT 4,129.2 3,967.4 -3.9 4,932.2 4,780.3 -3.1 ABV (|) 2,291.7 2,273.9 -0.8 2,599.9 2,572.6 -1.0 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Assumption C urrent E arlier F Y19 F Y20 F Y21E F Y22E F Y21E F Y22E C ommercial Finance growth (% ) 37.9 37.1 1.7 22.2 1.7 22.2 Life Ins Premium growth (% ) 16.9 10.1 2.4 10.1 1.5 5.9 General Ins GWP growth (% ) 17.0 15.6 3.0 15.0 8.0 20.0 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | Bajaj Finserv ICICI Direct Research Valuation and Outlook Leaving FY21E behind, front-loading provisions for asset quality stress, the Bajaj Finance management has guided for strong improvement of 25-27% growth in AUM and credit cost at 160-180 bps from FY22E. Tight control on cost and focus on improving collection bodes well in a changed environment. Demand for protection & guaranteed products is seen driving life insurance premium and VNB margins ahead. Higher acceptance of health insurance bodes well for premium accretion ahead, though claims are seen to be gradually increasing as normalcy resumes. With plans to enter into asset management, license for AMC has been applied. Given anticipation of healthy growth in earnings at ~19% CAGR in FY21-Y22E and prevailing steep holdco discount, we upgrade our target to | 7000/share (earlier | 6400) based on SOTP valuation, implying a multiple of ~23x on FY22E consolidated earnings. Hence, we upgrade the stock from HOLD to BUY. Exhibit 4: SOTP valuation V alue/ V alue of S take B usiness share after B usiness B asis stake (| (% ) V alue 20% d iscount crore) (|) Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance 1.2 FY22E EV 74 18140 13404 590 Bajaj Allianz General Insurance 20x P AT 74 26546 19777 870 Bajaj Finance 4.7x FY22E BVPS 54.8 231000 126611 5532 Windmill |4 crore per MW 100 260 143 8 Total 7000 Source: ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3 Result Update | Bajaj Finserv ICICI Direct Research Story in Charts Exhibit 5: Consolidated profit summary Particulars Q 4F Y18 Q 1F Y19 Q 2F Y19 Q 3F Y19 Q 4F Y19 Q 1F Y20 Q 2F Y20 Q 3F Y20 Q 4F Y20 Q 1F Y21 Q 2F Y21 General Insurance 2764 2429 2718 2547 3402 2843 4279 3055 2655 2289 4156 Life Insurance 2670 1361 2083 2123 3290 1837 2236 2552 3128 1700 2677 Total Insurance 5590 4862 5404 6179 7782 6537 7905 7632 6066 7641 8526 Investments & others 16 18 337 54 51 52 410 60 381 42 48 Windmill 17 16 29 10 16 8 12 12 7 8 10 Retail financing 3483 3941 4296 4995 5269 5808 6323 7026 7229 6650 6523 Less: Inter-segment revenue 49 67 367 96 123 133 426 169 389 148 55 Total revenue 9057 8771 9698 11142 12995 12272 14224 14561 13294 14192 15052 Interest and Finance C harges 1209 1334 1540 1782 1884 2054 2313 2419 2552 2395 2340 O ther E xp 6302 5447 6348 7136 8981 7963 9285 9514 9949 9229 10555 Total E xpenses 7511 6781 7888 8918 10864 10017 11598 11934 12501 11624 12895 PBT 1546 1990 1810 2224 2130 2255 2626 2627 793 2568 2157 PAT 637 826 704 851 839 845 1204 1126 194 1215 986 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 6: Higher traction in home finance Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 7: AUM growth witnesses decline | crore Q 1F Y19 Q 2F Y19 Q 3F Y19 Q 4F Y19 Q 1F Y20 Q 2F Y20 Q 3F Y20 Q 4F Y20 Q 1F Y21 Q 2F Y21 NII 2573 2708 3201 3395 3688 3999 4537 4679 4151 4158 Total income 2578 2708 3203 3395 3695 3999 4537 4683 4152 4158 Total expenses 954 959 1119 1174 1293 1382 1536 1452 1156 1159 P rovision 327 315 454 409 551 594 831 1954 1686 1700 PBT 1297 1435 1630 1812 1851 2022 2170 1278 1309 1341 Loan outstanding 93314 100217 109930 115889 128898 135533 145020 147153 138000 137300 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 8: Life insurance premium (NBP) growth
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