Bajaj Finserv (BAFINS)

CMP: | 11000 Target: | 11500 (5%) Target Period: 12 months HOLD

April 30, 2021 Gradual revival in finance; picks pace Bajaj Finserv reported a mixed performance with a gradual pick-up in lending business and robust growth in life insurance while general insurance momentum was slower. Consolidated topline grew 15.7% YoY to | 15387 crore, led by improved traction in insurance business, partially offset by moderation in lending business. Consolidated earnings increased 4x YoY to | 980 crore with improvement in all segments. Particulars

Consolidated AUM witnessed QoQ growth of 4% YoY to | 152947 crore, led Particular Amount by mortgages. NII remained broadly flat YoY at | 4,659 crore. Lower Market Update Result | 176612 crore provision at | 1230 crore led to higher earnings at | 1346 crore, up 42% YoY Capitalization and 18% QoQ. Asset quality has synced with proforma GNPA, NNPA by Q4 Net worth | 35830 crore reaching at 1.79%, 0.75% (post ~| 2000 crore i.e. 1.3% write-off in Q4) from 52 week H/L (|) 11299 /3986 proforma GNPA, NNPA of 2.86%, 1.22%, respectively, in Q3FY21. Face value | 5 Gross written premium (GWP) in general insurance increased 5% YoY to DII Holding (%) 6.1 | 2787 crore. Excluding crop insurance, GWP increased 10% YoY to | 2663 FII Holding (%) 9.1 crore. The 2-W, 4-W saw healthy growth at 21.4%, 27.9%, respectively, but

CV business (especially passenger CV) remains muted with de-growth of Key Highlights 2%. Growth in retail health business moderates. Stance on group health insurance still continues to remain cautious. Claim ratio increased to 64.3%  Robust 44% YoY growth in life vs. 62.1% in Q4FY20, primarily due to strengthening of reserves for third insurance premium with NBP uptick of

party motor claims. Hence, combined ratio (claim + opex) came in at 96.6% 64% YoY vs. 93.8% in Q4FY20. Higher claim provisioning led to lower underwriting  GWP in general insurance showed profit coming at | 6 crore though FY21 profit came in at | 237 crore. modest growth of 5% YoY Investment income remained healthy at | 353 crore, up 38% YoY. Life insurance GWP grew 44% YoY to | 4501 crore, led by robust new  Downgrade to HOLD with revised business premium (NBP) accretion at 64% YoY to | 2493 crore, attributable target price of | 11500 to pick-up in individual & group protection business. Individual rated Risk to our call premium grew 63% YoY to | 989 crore (led by guarantee & protection product) while group premium increased 34% YoY to | 739 crore, led by  Persistent impact of pandemic may

pick up in loan disbursement. Renewal premium witnessed an uptick lead to increased claims and impact

Retail Equity Research Equity Retail

business

reporting 25% YoY growth to | 2008 crore. New business value increased – 59% YoY to | 361 crore. AUM grew 32% YoY to | 73773 crore, reflecting  Faster-than-expected growth in life impact of rebound in equity markets and strong inflows. insurance and lending segment could Valuation & Outlook boost profitability Gradual pick-up in AUM in finance business, robust premium accretion in Research Analyst life insurance and growth in general insurance with under writing profit to Kajal Gandhi

aid business momentum and earning trajectory. Robust pick-up in life [email protected] Securities ICICI insurance business, selective product mix (pick up in unit linked products) Vishal Narnolia and improvement in VNB margins remains positive. The management focus [email protected] on selective segment like PV, 2-W, property and retail health bodes well to keep a tab on claim ratio. Recent resurgence in Covid cases remain near Sameer Sawant term risk. Factoring in revival in business segments, we revise our target [email protected]

price to | 11500/share (earlier | 10500), based on SOTP valuation, implying a multiple of ~26x on FY23E consolidated earnings. However, given recent price run up, we downgrade the stock from BUY to HOLD. s Key Financial Summary

| crore FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E CAGR (FY21-23E) Revenue 54,351.5 60,591.6 62,136.1 73,536.0 10% PAT 2269.0 4470.5 5287.7 6822.4 24% EPS (|) 269.7 235.6 332.3 428.8 BV (|) 2026.3 2260.2 2590.7 3017.7 P/E 40.8 46.7 33.1 25.7 P/BV 5.4 4.9 4.2 3.6 RoA 1.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 RoE 15.3 11.0 13.7 15.3 S

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Bajaj Finserv ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis Q4FY21 Q4FY21E Q4FY20 YoY (%) Q3FY21 QoQ (%) Comments Sequential degrowth in premium due to lower crop General Insurance 2787.4 3452.1 2,655.5 5.0 3,392.0 -17.8 business Growth in individual and group NBP propelled life Life Insurance 4501.3 3441.1 3,128.3 43.9 3,147 43.0 insurance premium Net premium 7288.7 6893.3 5,783.8 26.0 6,539.0 11.5 Investment and 1837.3 2438.7 275 569.1 3,659 -49.8 other income Reinsurance Ceded 590.5 413.6 206 186.0 491 20.2 Reserve for -71.3 200.0 -214 -66.7 305 -123.4 Total Insurance 8606.9 8718.3 6,066.3 41.9 9,401.9 -8.5 Retail financing 6854.9 7297.1 7,229 -5.2 6,655 3.0 Gradual pick seen in finance segment Windmill 2.4 7.5 7.1 -66.8 3.9 -38.9 Investment and 311.7 70.0 381 -18.3 79 292.9 Total 15387.3 15910.5 13,294 15.7 15,961 -3.6 Interest and Finance 2147.4 664.6 2,552.3 -15.9 2,258.4 -4.9 Charges Other Exp 10880.0 12912.0 9,949.0 9.4 10,922.8 -0.4 Total Expenses 13027.5 13576.7 12,501.4 4.2 13,181.3 -1.2 PBT 2359.8 2333.9 792.9 197.6 2,779.5 -15.1 Gradual pick in finance segment, strong growth in PAT 980.4 1102.7 194.4 404.2 1,290.3 -24.0 life insurance and capital gains led to YoY growth in

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 2: Change in estimates FY22E FY23E (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Total Income 59458.9 62,136.1 4.5 69985.6 73,536.0 5.1 PBT 10,565.6 11,679.3 10.5 13,209.7 14,816.9 12.2 PAT 4,863.1 5,287.7 8.7 6,449.3 6,822.4 5.8 ABV (|) 2,581.8 2,590.7 0.3 2,985.4 3,017.7 1.1

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Assumption Current Earlier FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY22E FY23E Commercial Finance growth (%) 25.7 3.8 18.0 21.7 19.7 21.7 Life Ins Premium growth (%) 10.1 15.4 23.7 14.0 11.4 12.7 General Ins GWP growth (%) 15.6 5.0 11.0 12.0 12.0 13.0

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | Bajaj Finserv ICICI Direct Research

Valuation and Outlook A gradual pick-up in AUM in the finance business, robust premium accretion in life insurance and growth in general insurance with under writing profit to aid business momentum and earning trajectory. Robust pick-up in life insurance business, selective product mix (pick up in unit linked products) and improvement in VNB margins remains positive. Management focus on selective segment like PV, 2-W, property and retail health bode well to keep a tab on claim ratio. Recent resurgence in Covid cases remain near term risk. Factoring in a revival in business segments, we revise our target price to | 11500/share (earlier | 10500), based on SOTP valuation, implying a multiple of ~26x on FY23E consolidated earnings. However, given the recent price run up, we downgrade the stock from BUY to HOLD.

Exhibit 4: SOTP valuation

Value/ Value of stake (| Business Basis Stake (%) Business Value share after 30% crore) discount (|)

Bajaj Life Insurance 1.5x FY23E EV 74 27827 20562 905 Bajaj Allianz General Insurance 25x PAT 74 51394 38288 1684 6.7x FY23E BVPS 55 363440 199201 8903 Windmill |4 per mw 100 260 143 8 Total 11500

Source:

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Story in Charts

Exhibit 5: Consolidated profit summary Particulars Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 General Insurance 2547 3402 2843 4279 3055 2655 2289 4156 3392 2787 Life Insurance 2123 3290 1837 2236 2552 3128 1700 2677 3147 4501 Total Insurance 6179 7782 6537 7905 7632 6066 7641 8526 9402 8607 Investments & others 54 51 52 410 60 381 42 48 79 312 Windmill 10 16 8 12 12 7 8 10 4 2 Retail financing 4995 5269 5808 6323 7026 7229 6650 6523 6655 6855 Less: Inter-segment revenue 96 123 133 426 169 389 148 55 179 389 Total revenue 11142 12995 12272 14224 14561 13294 14192 15052 15961 15387 Interest and Finance Charges 1782 1884 2054 2313 2419 2552 2395 2340 2258 2147 Other Exp 7136 8981 7963 9285 9514 9949 9229 10555 10923 10880 Total Expenses 8918 10864 10017 11598 11934 12501 11624 12895 13181 13027 PBT 2224 2130 2255 2626 2627 793 2568 2157 2779 2360 PAT 851 839 845 1204 1126 194 1215 986 1290 980

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 6: Consumer finance largest contributor to loan mix

100 15 16 18 20 22 23 24 24 25 80 8 8 8 10 9 9 9 9 9 12 10 9 8 10 60 7 9 9 9 28 25 25 23 23 23 23 22 21 (%) 40 20 39 39 39 39 39 37 36 36 35

0

Q1FY20 Q4FY19 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21

Consumer Finance SME Business Commercial Rural Mortgage in HFC

0060 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 7: Strong growth in new business premium in life insurance

3000 2493

2500

1818 1706

2000 1699.7

1519

1411

1394

1372

1235 1213

1500 1171

1014

944 721

| crore | 1000 500

0

Q1FY19 Q2FY21 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 8: Strong growth in total premium driven by sharp uptick in NBP Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Total premium 3290 1837 2235 2552 3129 2658 2677 3147 4501

New business premium 1818 1014 1235 1411 1519 1700 1372 1706 2493

Renewal premium 1472 823 1000 1141 1610 958 1305 1441 2008 Policyholder profits 31 -30 -1 10 11 -52 -33 -30 45 Shareholder profits* 81 92 207 133 27 182 131 148 189 Total profits 112 62 206 143 38 130 98 118 234 Solvency ratio (%) 804 790 770 770 745 760 730 708 666

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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Exhibit 9: General insurance business mix dominated by motor insurance in Q4FY21

Agri (incl Others crop) 10% 4% Health 10%

Motor 54% Property & Eng 22%

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 10: Underwriting profit marred by higher claims provisioning Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Gross Premium 4279 3055 2655 2289 4156 3392 2787 Net Earned Premium 2131 2156 1972 1818 1986 1838 1794 Underwritting profit -91 -87 159 175 29 27 6 Investment income 462 359 255 352 414 413 353 PBT 371 272 414 527 443 440 359 PAT 294 191 304 395 332 330 273 Claim Ratio (%) 75 73 62 68 74 66 64 Combined Ratio (%) 103 104 94 98 97 96 97

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 11: Shareholding Pattern (in %) Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Promoter 60.7 60.8 60.8 60.8 60.8 60.8 FII 8.7 8.6 8.0 7.7 8.8 9.1 DII 6.6 6.2 6.4 6.8 6.1 6.1 Others 24.0 24.3 24.9 24.7 24.4 24.0

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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Financial summary

Exhibit 12: Profit and loss statement | crore Exhibit 13: Balance Sheet (Year-end March) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E (Year-end March) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E Revenue Sources of Funds Life Insurance 9753 12025 13916 15862 Shareholders' Funds 32242 35830 41223 48018 General Insurance 12833 12624 14957 16752 - Share capital 80 80 80 80 Total 22586 24649 28873 32614 Less: Reinsurance ceded 1056 1797 2348 2602 - Reserves & Surplus 32162 35750 41144 47938 Reserve for unexpired risk 180 432 748 838 Policy liabilities 58772 75230 68766 85105 Net Insurance Premium Earned 21349 22420 25777 29174 Loan funds 122465 124014 173139 210773 Investment and other income 6791 11756 6992 8439 Defered tax liability (net) 80 320 326 333 Total Insurance Income 28140 34176 32770 37613 Current liabilities 75071 44624 67751 64364 Investment and others 904 480 528 581 Provisions 176 226 235 245 Retail financing 26386 26683 29792 36386 Total liabilities 251384 280164 386309 450522 Windmill 39 24 30 37 Total 55469 61363 63120 74618 Less: Inter-segment revenue 1118 772 983 1082 Applications of Funds Total revenue 54351 60592 62136 73536 Fixed assets 1615 1565 2387 2602 Pre-tax profit Goodwill on investments in associates 689 689 689 689 General Insurance 1033 2392 2425 2832 Investments 27714 33609 17845 17310 Life Insurance 39 1383 1197 1371 Policyholders' Investments 64108 80072 72171 86999 Total Insurance 1072 3776 3622 4203 Deferred Tax Assets (net) 885 946 976 1025 Retail financing 7442 6387 8307 10886 Current assets 14997 163284 119101 131124 Investments & others -234 -305 -264 -291 - Receivable under financing activity 141376 146687 173139 210773 Windmill 20 5 14 18 Total PBIT 8300 9862 11679 14817 Misc Expenditure 0 0 0 0 Less: Interest -234 -96 -264 -291 Total Assets 251384 280164 386309 450522

Profit before tax 8301 9862 11679 14817 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Tax -2308 -2495 -2866 -3054 Net profit before minority 5994 7367 8813 11763 Minority and deferred tax adjustments 2624 2897 3525 4940 Net profit 2269 4470 5288 6822

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 14: Key Ratio (Year-end March) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E No. of shares in mn 159.1 159.1 159.1 159.1 EPS 269.7 235.6 332.3 428.8 BV 2026.3 2260.2 2590.7 3017.7 RoA 1.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 RoE 15.3 11.0 13.7 15.3 P/BV 5.4 4.9 4.2 3.6 P/E 40.8 46.7 33.1 25.7

(Year-end March) - Growth ratios FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E Gross Written Premium - Life 10.1 15.4 23.7 14.0 - General 16 5 11 12 Loan book Bajaj Finance 26 4 18 22 Consol Networth 35 12 15 16 Consol Revenues 30 20 10 18 Consol PAT 36 -13 41 29 Consol Effective Tax rate 25 25 25 21

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 6 Result Update | Bajaj Finserv ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 15: ICICI Direct coverage universe (BFSI) CMP M Cap EPS (|) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%) Sector / Company (|) TP(|) Rating (| bn) FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) 411 475 Hold 203 58.9 65.3 76.0 7.0 6.3 5.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 15.4 15.1 15.9 HDFC (HDFC) 2,531 3,100 Buy 4,542 58.5 75.0 84.4 43.3 33.7 30.0 4.3 4.1 3.9 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.2 Bajaj Finserv (BAFINS) 11,000 11,500 Hold 1,77,988 253.3 305.6 405.3 43.4 36.0 27.1 4.8 4.3 3.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 11.8 12.6 14.6 Bajaj Finance (BAJFI) 5,484 5,900 Buy 2,937 73.5 102.9 131.7 74.6 53.3 41.6 9.2 8.0 6.2 2.2 3.3 3.5 12.1 15.6 16.3 Mahindra & Mahindra Finance165 160 Reduce 204 2.7 7.2 10.4 60.7 23.0 15.8 1.8 1.5 1.3 0.4 1.2 1.6 2.6 5.7 7.3

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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RATING RATIONALE ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15% Hold: -5% to 15%; Reduce: -15% to -5%; Sell: <-15%

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICI Direct Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) – 400 093 [email protected]

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ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Sameer Sawant, MBA Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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