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Antique's Morning Presentation

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Antique's Morning Presentation STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL AMP 16 October 2014 ANTIQUE’S MORNING PRESENTATION Market Snapshot Global Indices Closing % Chg % YTD FROM THE RESEARCH DESK Dow Jones 16,142 (1.1) (2.6) 2QFY15 RESULTS REVIEW NASDAQ 4,215 (0.3) 0.9 FTSE 6,212 (2.8) (8.0) Bajaj Finance Limited CAC 3,940 (3.6) (8.3) Defying slowdown yet again DAX 8,572 (2.9) (10.3) Cyient Limited Russia 1,067 (0.8) (26.0) Strong beat in performance; Acceleration to continue Bovespa 56,135 (3.2) 9.0 Nikkei 15,074 0.9 (9.8) Hang Seng 23,140 0.4 (0.7) Shanghai Composite 2,374 0.6 12.2 Global News Indian Indices Closing % Chg % YTD Sensex 26,349 (0.1) 24.5 U.S. stocks plunged on Wednesday in wake of disappointing U.S. retail sales and wholesale pricing data. The Census Bureau reported earlier that Nifty 7,864 (0.3) 24.7 U.S. retail sales fell 0.3% last month, exceeding forecasts for a 0.1% decline, MSCI India 495 - 21.5 after expanding 0.6% in August. DJIA fell 1% to close at 16142, the S&P CNX Midcap 11,270 (0.1) 39.6 500 index fell 0.8% to close at 1862.5 BSE Smallcap 10,631 (0.1) 62.3 Tokyo stocks closed 0.92% higher on Wednesday, recovering slightly after five days of losses on bargain hunting and coutesy a weaker yen. Nikkei Flows (USDm) Prev. Day MTD which sank to a two-month low on Tuesday, gained 0.9% to finish at 15,073.5 FII (89) (325) Sector & Corporate News Locals 79 431 DLF, India's largest builder, which has been in the centre of a political storm Provisional flows (USDm) for its alleged dealings with Robert Vadra, has now received a body blow FIIs (113) from the capital market watchdog: Securities and Exchange Board of India. Locals 81 DLF, its Chairman KP Singh, some members of the promoter family, and a few senior executives have been barred from dealing in stocks and securities for Volumes USDbn % Chg three years by Sebit. The regulatory action stems from the DLF management's failure to disclose material information to investors during the firm's maiden Cash (NSE + BSE) 3.1 19.4 equity offer in 2007. F&O (net) 37.0 20.0 Economy: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced an interim assistance INR10bn for Andhra Pradesh, for undertaking relief and FII F&O Stock Fut Index Fut rehabilitation measures in the cyclone-affected areas of the state. The Eastern Net ($ mn) 15 (49) Power Distribution Company, which supplies power to Vizag and other areas, Open Int (%) 0.2 (3.7) alone is estimated to have incurred a loss of INR400bn. Over 6,000 transformers and 16,000 electric poles have been uprooted by heavy gales. ADR/GDR Gainers Last % Chg Indian Oil Corporation will invest USD4bn in the British Columbia province, Tata Motors 43.6 0.5 Canada, to source LNG from the region. The company in May had signed a SBI 82.2 0.2 deal to buy 10% stake in shale-gas assets and a linked LNG project in British Dr Reddy 48.0 0.2 Columbia. Wipro 12.2 0.2 Ranbaxy 9.6 0.1 Bhushan Steel: Alstom T&D India has received a contract worth INR1.4bn from Power Grid Corporation of India for supply of transformers and reactors ADR/GDR Losers Last % Chg to strengthen the southern grid. Under the contract, Alstom will supply six units Reliance 31.0 (0.6) of 400/200 kV, 500 MVA transformers and two units of 420 kV, 125 MVAr Infosys 64.2 (0.5) shunt reactors. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 16 October 2014 | 2 Sectoral indices Delivery Spike Closing % Chg % MTD % YTD Company Volume Spike (%) Chg (%) BSE Auto 17,261 (0.4) (2.7) 40.8 Adani 1,545,983 7749% (1.76) BSE Bank 18,027 0.5 2.3 38.6 DLF 27,023,891 653% (28.56) BSE Cap Goods 14,278 (0.0) 0.1 39.1 NMDC 2,228,191 349% (1.06) BSE Cons dur 9,521 (0.6) (3.3) 63.6 Bajaj Auto 139,626 348% 2.69 BSE FMCG 7,300 (0.2) (4.3) 11.2 HDFC 1,471,651 165% (1.35) BSE IT 10,722 (0.8) 0.3 18.1 Union Bank 1,343,367 157% 2.63 BSE Health 13,577 0.1 (5.4) 36.2 Axis Bank 2,174,417 153% 2.64 BSE Metal 11,090 0.1 (2.8) 11.3 PFC 1,189,378 115% 3.77 BSE Oil 10,707 (0.5) (0.2) 21.2 Mundra Port 1,472,225 96% (0.13) BSE Power 2,021 0.6 2.2 18.8 Kotak Bank 746,160 73% 0.46 BSE PSU 7,855 0.2 0.9 32.9 BSE Realty 1,419 (9.2) (10.2) (1.0) BSE TECK 5,917 (0.5) (0.0) 17.1 Derivatives Update Long Build Up Company Last % Chg % Chg OI OI (in 000) BHEL 225 3.4 2.4 36,306 UNIONBANK 211 2.2 3.4 10,016 INDUSINDBK 652 2.1 4.8 5,951 Nifty Outperformers GLENMARK 739 1.6 7.1 1,938 Short Build Up Price % Chg % MTD % YTD Company Last % Chg % Chg OI OI (in 000) Bharat Heavy Electricals 226 3.6 12.7 27.8 DLF 106 (28.5) 33.8 28,396 Bajaj Auto Ltd 2,412 2.7 2.6 26.2 HDIL 75 (5.4) 25.7 34,056 Axis Bank Ltd 397 2.6 5.1 52.8 IOC 369 (3.2) 4.1 5,179 Indusind Bank Ltd 650 2.3 4.5 54.4 INDIACEM 106 (2.9) 4.0 17,292 Tata Power Co Ltd 87 2.1 4.7 (1.4) Bharti Airtel Ltd 398 1.7 (1.7) 20.6 Short Covering State Bank Of India 2,524 1.5 3.2 42.9 Company Last % Chg % Chg OI OI (in 000) LICHSGFIN 335 4.1 (3.4) 12,403 Nifty Underperformers SAIL 77 3.7 (4.7) 39,216 Price % Chg % MTD % YTD PFC 250 3.5 (4.6) 8,558 ORIENTBANK 242 3.1 (7.6) 6,456 Dlf Ltd 105 (28.6) (30.4) (37.0) Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd 656 (2.3) 0.1 88.6 Profit Booking Cairn India Ltd 284 (2.0) (8.9) (12.2) Company Last % Chg % Chg OI OI (in 000) Hcl Technologies Ltd 1,723 (1.9) 0.5 37.5 MOTHERSUMI 378 (2.1) (1.0) 5,312 Tata Motors Ltd 488 (1.7) (2.8) 29.6 NMDC 154 (1.5) (1.5) 11,668 Asian Paints Ltd 646 (1.5) 2.6 31.9 VOLTAS 235 (1.4) (5.3) 7,606 Housing Development Finance 1,004 (1.4) (4.9) 26.4 EICHERMOT 11,243 (0.8) (4.4) 127 Bulk Deals Date Security Name Client Name Buy/Sell Qty Price 14-Oct-14 RAINBOWPAP Mangal Keshav Capital Ltd BUY 2,148,213 77.50 14-Oct-14 RAINBOWPAP Bdr Securities Limited SELL 2,148,213 77.50 14-Oct-14 Dolphin Offshore Enterpri Jagartius Universal BUY 99,000 161.98 14-Oct-14 BITL Jackpot Vintrade Private Limited SELL 352,000 26.55 ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 16 October 2014 | 3 Nifty Nifty P/E Nifty P/B 8200 24 4.0 22 7200 3.5 20 6200 18 3.0 16 5200 2.5 14 4200 12 2.0 O c t - 10 O c t - 11 O c t - 12 O c t - 13 O c t - 14 O c t - 10 O c t - 11 O c t - 12 O c t - 13 O c t - 14 O c t - 10 O c t - 11 O c t - 12 O c t - 13 O c t - 14 Source: Bloomberg Sensex FII Provisional Flows (INRcr) DII Provisional Flows (INRcr) 28000 4,000 1,500 26000 750 24000 2,000 22000 0 20000 0 y 18 0 0 0 -750 16 0 0 0 -2,000 -1,500 14 0 0 0 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Source: Bloomberg Economy, Money & Banking Commodities Update Forex Rate Last % Chg % MTD % YTD Commodities Last % Chg % MTD % YTD INR~USD 61.4 (0.5) 0.5 0.6 Gold ($/Ounce) 1,244 0.1 2.9 3.1 INR~EUR 77.8 (0.3) (0.1) 9.3 Crude Oil ($/Bl) 81 (1.2) (11.3) (13.4) INR~GBP 97.8 0.2 2.2 4.4 Aluminium ($/t) 1,892 (1.5) (1.9) 7.8 Copper ($/t) 6,685 (2.5) (0.5) (9.4) Bond Market Last Chg (bps) MTD (bps) YTD (bps) Zinc ($/t) 2,273 (2.9) (0.4) 10.7 10 Year Bond 8.4 0 (11) (42) Lead ($/t) 1,997 (2.4) (4.5) (8.8) Interbank call 9.0 120 90 25 Nickel ($/t) 15,753 (3.2) (3.0) 13.9 INR/USD Gold and silver prices Crude prices 64 2000 60 110 50 63 15 0 0 40 62 10 0 10 0 0 30 61 20 500 60 10 90 59 0 0 58 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 80 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Gold (LHS) Silver (RHS) Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Source: Bloomberg Inflation vs 10 year yield Nifty premium/discount NSE volatility index (%) 10 60 52.8 15 9 50 8 14 7 40 31.3 29.8 26.9 27.1 6 30 13 5 20 4 12 3 10 Nov-12 Jun-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 0 11 Inf lat io n (%) 10 Yr Yield (%) 08-Oct 09-Oct 10-Oct 13-Oct 14-Oct 16-Sep 23-Sep 30-Sep 7-Oct 14-Oct Source: Bloomberg ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 16 October 2014 | 4 Current Reco : HOLD 2QFY15 RESULTS REVIEW Previous Reco : BUY CMP : INR2,727 Bajaj Finance Limited Target Price : INR2,890 Defying slowdown yet again Potential Return : 6% Bajaj Finance's strong 2QFY15 performance was driven by traction in the consumer and SME businesses, which witnessed 56% and 47% YoY disbursement growth, respectively.
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