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Dashboard the Monthly Auto Update

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Dashboard the Monthly Auto Update June 2014 Dashboard The Monthly Auto Update Data Track: June 2014 volume update of auto majors Speedometer Sector overview and outlook ........................................................... 2 June 2014 relative performance Hero MotoCorp ................................................................................. 3 Bajaj Auto .......................................................................................... 4 HMSI .................................................................................................. 6 TVS Motor .......................................................................................... 7 Maruti Suzuki .................................................................................... 9 Mahindra & Mahindra ..................................................................... 11 Tata Motors ...................................................................................... 13 Ashok Leyland ................................................................................. 15 Eicher Motors .................................................................................. 16 Sector Gauge: May 2014 update 12-month relative performance Two-wheelers ................................................................................. 17 Three-wheelers .............................................................................. 19 Cars and UVs .................................................................................... 21 Commercial vehicles....................................................................... 23 Management Media Interviews & News developments Maruti Suzuki: Mr Mayank Pareek, COO, (Sales & Marketing) ..... 26 Bajaj Auto: Mr Rajiv Bajaj , Managing Director............................... 29 Yamaha launches upgraded FZ and FZ-S bikes ............................... 32 New Ford Fiesta Facelift Launched ................................................ 32 Aggregate Volumes For June 2014* Segment Jun-14 Jun-13 YoY (%) May-14 MoM (%) FY15YTD FY14YTD Chg (%) 2-Wheelers 1,320,778 1,166,110 13.3 1,497,471 -11.8 4,161,110 3,637,134 14.4 Motorcycle 1,029,673 936,524 9.9 1,186,281 -13.2 3,273,375 2,948,112 11.0 Scooters 228,643 169,934 34.5 249,355 -8.3 699,964 507,416 37.9 3-Wheelers 56,226 52,285 7.5 42,141 33.4 150,362 148,786 1.1 Cars 114,103 90,887 25.5 103,115 10.7 304,698 284,487 7.1 UVs 39,513 38,791 1.9 40,517 -2.5 118,573 126,640 -6.4 Commercial Vehicles 39,466 51,543 -23.4 39,272 0.5 107,757 144,119 -25.2 LCV 20,117 31,794 -36.7 20,522 -2.0 59,240 92,923 -36.2 M&HCV 19,349 19,749 -2.0 18,750 3.2 48,517 51,196 -5.2 Tractors (M&M) 29,884 27,749 7.7 23,940 24.8 74,555 74,577 0.0 Total Volumes 1,599,970 1,427,365 12.1 1,746,456 -8.4 4,917,055 4,415,743 11.4 * Aggregate of Bajaj, Hero, TVS Motor, HMSI, Maruti, M&M, Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland & Eicher Motors Source: Company, MOSL Comparative Valuation CMP * Rating TP P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Auto OEM's (INR) (INR) FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E Bajaj Auto 2,295 Buy 2,191 18.0 15.7 12.0 10.0 35.0 33.7 48.8 46.8 Hero MotoCorp 2,589 Buy 2,712 17.6 14.3 12.4 10.2 47.1 46.7 61.9 62.6 TVS Motor 171 Buy 178 17.0 12.5 10.5 7.7 29.9 31.6 32.7 36.5 M&M 1,236 Buy 1,310 15.9 12.2 14.5 11.6 18.0 18.5 19.0 20.1 Maruti Suzuki 2,630 Buy 2,977 12.3 10.0 10.0 8.0 19.8 22.1 0.0 0.0 Tata Motors 469 Buy 574 9.2 6.9 3.8 2.9 22.3 23.8 22.6 25.0 Ashok Leyland 36 Buy 38 NA 26.4 14.5 9.0 0.9 7.9 5.0 9.5 Amara Raja Batteries 496 Buy 515 19.7 15.7 11.8 9.2 27.1 27.5 37.9 38.9 * Price as on 3rd July 2014. # Nos. are on CY basis Source: Company, MOSL Jinesh Gandhi ([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5416 Chirag Jain ([email protected]); + 91 22 3982 5418 1 Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report. Dashboard Data Track Sector overview and outlook Recovery signs gathers pace across segments; monsoon remains key near term monitorable Sharp improvement in PV demand; MHCV decline continues to moderate With improved consumer sentiments, post general elections, passenger vehicle demand has improved considerably. Lead indicators of CV industry such as freight rates, fleet operators' utilization are turning positive over the last few months. Recent rail fare hike on freight movement would further support road freight rates. Recovery in two-wheeler industry continues with double digit growth. While tractors (M&M) registered 8% growth, below average monsoon poses a risk to FY15 growth forecast. Product lifecycle key factor to off-set competitive forces Competitive intensity is expected to remain high across segments, especially in PVs and CVs, with several launches from challengers and incumbents. While volume recovery would be witnessed across segments, benefit of the same would differ from player to player depending on their product lifecycle and competitive intensity. Product lifecycle of incumbents like HMCL (2-3 new product launches) and MSIL (3 new product launches) is favorable, whereas MM doesn't have any major launch lined- up for FY15. In CVs, we expect continued roll-out of new trucks from Eicher and Daimler, along with ramp-up in their distribution network, keeping incumbents on their toes. Improvement in economic activity post general election proving to be key catalyst for demand recovery Revival in economic activity along with improve in business and customer sentiments leading to demand recovery. The pace of project clearences and increase in investment activity would be key to monitor demand moving forward. Valuation and view Demand environment and changing competitive landscape in the auto sector would be the key determinants of stock performance. Prefer Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors in large caps and TVS Motor and Ashok Leyland in mid-caps. Key Financial Indicators Volume Chg (%) ^ EBITDA Margins (%) EPS (INR) * EPS Growth (%) * Auto OEM's FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E Bajaj Auto 9.1 13.6 20.4 20.4 127.2 146.1 13.5 14.9 Hero MotoCorp 7.7 13.5 13.0 14.0 147.3 180.8 39.5 22.8 TVS Motor 24.6 17.6 7.4 7.9 10.1 13.7 35.5 19.9 M&M 5.0 14.7 13.1 13.7 59.4 72.9 19.3 7.3 Maruti Suzuki 16.3 17.1 13.1 13.8 41.0 30.9 132.5 172.6 Tata Motors * 10.5 20.1 16.1 16.5 50.9 68.3 11.3 34.2 Ashok Leyland 20.3 24.3 5.9 8.9 -0.3 1.8 NA NA Eicher Motors # - - 11.6 13.7 226.0n 340.5 54.9 50.7 ^ Volume growth for standalone; * Consolidated wherever applicable, ** Royalty adjusted margins, # Nos. are on CY basis. July 2014 2 Dashboard Data Track Hero MotoCorp June volumes up 8%; cautious guidance on below average monsoon Snapshot of volumes for May 2014 Resi- Residual FY15 YTD YoY MoM FY14- Chg FY15 YoY Jun-14 Jun-13 May-14 FY15-YTD dual Monthly Monthly (%) (%) YTD (%) estimate (%) Gr. (%) Run rate Run rate Total volume 541,594 502,279 7.8 602,481 -10.1 1,715,129 860,151 10.0 6,690,837 7.7 6.9 552,856 571,710 Source: Company, MOSL Highlights Hero Moto's Jun-14 sales stood at 541,594 units (+7.8% YoY, -10% MoM), above our estimate of 524,590 units. The recent advertising campaign on Splendor iSmart has helped to generate more awareness about its new i3S technology, leading to capacity expansion for the model. It recently unveiled four new products, the key launch among them being 100-cc scooter, Dash. Our estimates model for ~8% growth in FY15, implying residual growth of ~7% or ~552,856 units. Below average monsoon could pose risk to both urban and rural demand, as per management. Hero Moto recently commenced production at its 4th manufacturing plant at Neemrana, Rajasthan. The plant has an installed capacity of 750K units, taking the total annual installed capacity to 7.65m units of 2Ws. Hero Moto trades at 17.6x/14.3x FY15E/FY16E EPS of INR147/INR180 respectively. Maintain Buy. Hero MotoCorp: two-wheelers FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 690,000 625,000 560,000 495,000 430,000 365,000 300,000 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Hero MotoCorp: Financial & Valuation Summary Bloomberg HMCL IN Year Net Sales PAT EPS EPS P/E P/CE P/BV EV/ RoE RoCE Equity Shares (m) 200 End (INR m) (INR m) (INR) Gr. (%) (X) (X) (X) EBITDA (%) (%) CMP (INR) 2,589 3/13A 235,827 21,182 106.1 -10.9 24.4 21.5 10.3 15.6 45.6 43.6 52-Wk Range (INR) 2,775/1,636 3/14A 251,249 21,091 105.6 -0.4 24.5 21.9 9.2 14.2 39.8 50.7 1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%) 7/6/25 3/15E 278,567 29,415 147.3 39.5 17.6 14.9 7.5 12.4 47.1 61.9 M.Cap. (USD b) 8.6 3/16E 321,598 36,111 180.8 22.8 14.3 12.8 6.0 10.2 46.7 62.6 July 2014 3 Dashboard Data Track Bajaj Auto Below est; 3W volumes rise 5%, exports grow 12% Snapshot of volumes for May 2014 Resi- Residual FY15 YTD YoY MoM FY14- Chg FY15 YoY Jun-14 Jun-13 May-14 FY15-YTD dual Monthly Monthly (%) (%) YTD (%) estimate (%) Gr. (%) Run rate Run rate Total volume 305,465 295,749 3.3 351,436 -13.1 988,430 979,275 0.9 4,221,623 9.1 11.8 359,244 329,477 Motorcycles 262,202 254,544 3.0 313,020 -16.2 874,858 860,151 1.7 3,728,130 8.9 11.4 317,030 291,619 Three-Wheelers 43,263 41,205 5.0 38,416 12.6 113,572 860,151 -4.7 493,493 10.2 15.6 42,213 37,857 Domestic 170,391 175,350 -2.8 195,257 -12.7 546,463 119,124 -11.4 2,452,831 7.3 14.2 211,819 182,154 Exports 135,074 120,399 12.2 156,179 -13.5 441,967 616,712 21.9 1,768,792 11.7 8.6 147,425 147,322 Source: Company, MOSL Highlights Bajaj Auto's Jun-14 total sales below our estimates.
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