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“Sequential Recovery Witnessed in Passenger Vehicles & 2-Wheeler Segment” Auto Sector: Focus Stocks

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“Sequential Recovery Witnessed in Passenger Vehicles & 2-Wheeler Segment” Auto Sector: Focus Stocks “Sequential Recovery Witnessed in Passenger vehicles & 2-Wheeler segment” Auto Sector: Focus Stocks Maruti Suzuki/Tata Motors/ Bajaj Auto/Eicher Motors Q1FY21 Post Earnings Review 18th August 2020 Table of Contents 1 Q1FY21 Earnings Summary – Key Takeaways 4 2 Earnings Review: Result Summary 5 - 8 3 Valuation Snapshot 9 - 12 4 Performance Overview 13 - 17 KRChoksey Research ANALYST Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO> www.krchoksey.com Parvati Rai, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5413 Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ Coverage Companies Passenger Vehicles • Maruti Suzuki Ltd • Tata Motors Ltd 2/3-Wheelers • Bajaj Auto Ltd • Eicher Motors Ltd KRChoksey Research ANALYST Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO> www.krchoksey.com Parvati Rai, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5413 Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ Q1FY21 Earnings Outlook – Key Takeaways Passenger & 2-Wheelers segment show recovery; Upcoming festive season & Rural market to drive demand Green-Shoots in Passenger vehicles and Two-Wheelers, while Commercial Vehicle remains challenging • As per SIAM, In July-20, Industry Passenger Vehicle (PV) sales declined by 3.9% YoY at 182,779 units while 2-Wheelers (2-W) registered a decline of 15.2% YoY which was significantly better than preceding months wherein in Q1FY21, PV sales were down 63% YoY while that of 2-W were down by 60.5% YoY • CV segment performance will remain challenging due to high axle norms, delayed infrastructure projects. We expect the announcement impending scrappage policy to bring relief to CV segment 3-Wheelers to be impacted as people shun shared mobility and public transport • Industry 3-wheelers performance continues to remain laggard as it witnessed a decline of 77.2% YoY in July-20, hardly improving compared to its performance in Q1FY21 where the volumes declined 87.6% YoY • This can be attributed to public transport and shared mobility being impacted due to social distancing which will in turn drive demand for personal vehicles such as entry level passenger vehicles and 2-Wheelers • Bajaj Auto reported a decline of 71.1% YoY in 3-Wheelers during the month of July-20, which indicates that recovery is expected to take a bit longer Gearing up new launches to bolster sales ahead of festive season; Rural recovery expected to boost domestic demand • Rural market led by good monsoon and robust crop output is expected to show strong growth as compared to urban region • This will drive the demand for Tractor, Small Commercial Vehicles and Motorcycle sales which will benefit Eicher Motors and Bajaj Auto • Urban demand is expected to recover by H2FY21 gradually, which will manifest during festive season • New launches planned in affordable segment ahead of festive season: Tata Motors (micro-SUV concept ‘HBX’, Tata Gravitas), Maruti Suzuki (New-Gen Celerio) KRChoksey Research Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576 ANALYST is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO> www.krchoksey.com Parvati Rai, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5413 Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ Q1FY21 Earnings Review: Result Summary …(1/4) Companies Revenue and Segment-wise Performance • Revenue stood at INR 41,065 mn, declining 79.2% YoY/ down 77.4% QoQ due to 81.0% YoY/ down 80.1% QoQ decline in volumes to 76,599 units. • Average Selling Price increased 9.4% YoY/+3.6% QoQ due to better product mix on account of higher sales of Utility vehicles Maruti Suzuki and export sales. • Domestic sales was down 82.1% YoY while export sales declined 66% YoY. • The outlook appears favorable as inquiries are currently at 85-90% of pre-COVID levels as percentage of inquiries are higher for hatchbacks (65% in Q1FY21 vs. 55% on average earlier) • Revenue declined 47.9% YoY/ down 48.8% QoQ to INR 3,19,831 mn, driven by 81.8% YoY volume decline in Tata Motor Standalone and 44.8% YoY decline in JLR business owing to lockdown • Tata Motor Standalone sales were down by 80% YoY while that of JLR declined by 44% YoY. Tata Motors • Within domestic business, volumes were down on YoY basis: M&HCV -92.1%, ILCV -92.1%, SCV & Pick Ups -85.4% and CV Passenger -97.2%. Domestic PV volumes were down 60.6% . • Currently, Indian CV plants are at ~20% utilization levels presently, with PV utilization levels at ~60-70% which shows demand recovery in PV business while CV still affected • Bajaj Auto revenue declined 61.0% YoY/ down 55.4% QoQ. The volumes fell by 64.5% YoY/down 55.3% QoQ due to lockdown witnessed during the earlier part of the quarter. Bajaj Auto • Realizations increased by 9.8% YoY due to better export realizations and a higher sales of BS VI vehicles • The demand for 3Wheelers is affected as shared mobility and public transport has been impacted due to COVID precautions • Eicher Motors reported consolidated revenue from operations of INR 818 Cr (in line with our estimates of INR 800 Cr) a decline of 65.7% YoY (down 62.9% QoQ). While the earlier part of the quarter was impacted due to lockdown, the company Eicher Motors witnessed recovery towards the end of June 20 Total volumes of Royal Enfield motorcycles declined by 67.8%YoY at 52,433 vehicles due to lockdown owing to COVID-19 • Average price realization increased by 6.8% YoY/+15.2% QoQ due to higher mix of BS-VI motorcycles KRChoksey Research ANALYST Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO> www.krchoksey.com Parvati Rai, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5413 Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ Q1FY21 Earnings Review: Result Summary …(2/4) Companies Margin Performance • EBITDA loss of INR 863 Cr due to negative operating leverage on account of higher fixed cost and raw material cost in Q1FY21 (one-off mark down of inventory value of INR 110 Cr). The raw material cost is expected to normalize in the coming quarters. Maruti Suzuki • MSIL reported a loss of INR 249 Cr which was partially cushioned by higher other income on account of fair value gains on investments. • Focus on cost controls related to material cost through localization and fixed cost is likely to aid margin going forward. • EBITDA margins were at 2.0%, down 289 bps YoY/ down 181 bps. • JLR cost and cash savings programme Project Charge+ continued to deliver significantly during the quarter. • Total savings during the quarter was £1.2 billion (£500 million in structural cost, £400 million in inventory, £300 million in Tata Motors investment reductions). India programme delivered INR 1,020 crore in cash savings in Q1FY21. The company maintains its stance of achieving INR 6,000 crore cash savings target in FY21E. • Consolidated loss after tax was at INR 8,438 crore, with JLR PBT loss at £413 million and standalone loss at INR 2,191 crore • Gross margins improved by 460bps YoY/ 130 bps QoQ to 32.9% in Q1FY21. This can be attributed to higher USD-INR realization and improved mix skewed towards exports and higher segment bikes such as KTM and Pulsar. Bajaj Auto • EBITDA declined by 65.9% YoY while margins stood at 13.8% lower by 198 bps YoY due to low operating leverage. The overall decline in EBITDA was partially offset by cost savings and favourable currency. • PAT margin improved 3 bps YoY/ down 707 bps QoQ to 13.4% due to lower taxation rate • Absolute EBITDA declined 99.4% YoY (down 99.1% QoQ) to INR 4 Cr while EBITDA margin contracted 2,533bps YoY/down 1,911bps QoQ to 0.5% due to negative operating leverage • In its Joint venture business, VECV continued to be affected by demand slowdown in commercial vehicle space. VECV sold Eicher Motors 2,129 trucks and buses registering a decline of 84% YoY (lower than industry level decline of ~95% YoY). Eicher Motor’s loss from JV stood at INR 65 Cr compared to profit of INR 21 Cr in Q1FY20 • Overall, Net Profit reported a loss of INR 55 Cr with Net Profit Margin at (-ve) 6.7% as compared to profit of INR 452 Cr in Q1FY20 and net profit margin of 19% KRChoksey Research ANALYST Phone: +91-22-6696 5555, Fax: +91-22-6691 9576 is also available on Bloomberg KRCS<GO> www.krchoksey.com Parvati Rai, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5413 Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ Q1FY21 Earnings Review: Result Summary …(3/4) Companies Industry/Outlook/ Strategy • Demand has returned to ~85% of pre-COVID levels. Currently, the company manufactures 4000+ units/day across its Haryana and Gujarat (single shift) plants. As the Gujarat plant starts with the second shift in mid-Aug20, Maruti will produce an incremental 900 units per day. Maruti Suzuki • Maruti is benefitting from its entry level portfolio as customers are turning towards the use of personal mobility in the current environment. The company is exploring further export opportunities • Present MSIL inventory level is at ~80,000 units i.e. ~25 days of sales • Total lifetime savings under Project Charge+ stood at £4.7 billion. The company raised targeted savings by £1 billion to £6 Billion (earlier £5 Billion) to be achieved through material cost, VME and other overheads which will aid margin Tata Motors • Capex (Indian operations): INR 492 crore for Q1FY21; FY21E capex guidance at INR 1,500 crore. • Capex (JLR): £548 million for Q1FY21; FY21E capex guidance: £2.5 billion • JLR inventory is at ~90 days of sales as of June vs.
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