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India Industrials 7 December 2018 SECTOR UPDATE INDIA INDUSTRIALS AUTOMOTIVE Building blocks ROADS in place CHEMICALS FOOD & BEVERAGE Sales growth at a 30-quarter high Broad-based recovery; 33 of 40 companies growing in double digits CEMENT Trough valuations; at -1 standard deviation SUGAR RAILWAYS STEEL PAPER POWER 7 December 2018 SECTOR UPDATE INDIA INDUSTRIALS TABLE OF CONTENTS INDIA INDUSTRIALS Sandeep Tulsiyan 03 Introduction [email protected] Tel: (91 22) 6630 3085 04 Key charts We acknowledge the support services of Harses Kampani in the MAIN THEMES preparation of this report. 06 Observations during the quarter – Broad-based growth with resilient margins 10 Order backlog at a decade-high, order inflows double JM Financial Research is also 12 Outlook – Bright prospects ahead but we remain selective available on: Bloomberg - JMFR <GO>, Thomson Publisher & 13 Industrial Index – Bottom valuations with stout earnings growth Reuters S&P Capital IQ and FactSet 15 What surprised the street? Please see Appendix I at the end of this report for Important Disclosures 16 Investment cycle at a decade low, private capex quiet and Disclaimers and Research Analyst Certification. 18 Peer Valuations You can also access our portal COMPANIES www.jmflresearch.com 19 SKF India 22 Voltas 25 Kirloskar Oil Engines 28 Bharat Electronics OTHER REPORTS INDIA STRATEGY INDIA POWER RURAL SAFARI VIII INDIA ELECTRICAL 2019 OUTLOOK CONSUMER DURABLES JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 2 7 December 2018 SECTOR UPDATE INDIA INDUSTRIALS Building blocks in place 5%+ for the 7th consecutive quarter Industrials growth Industrials - adjusted (%) MULTIPLE ENGINES FIRING 30.0% 25.0% An uptick in capex activity across multiple sectors has been 20.0% driving sharp and steady growth in India's industrials sector over the past few quarters. Aggregate sales of 40 industrials 15.0% companies grew 21.8% YoY in 2QFY19, while rolling TTM 10.0% sales grew 13.4% YoY, indicating that such robust growth 5.0% was not merely driven by the base effect. (%)YoY We have a positive growth outlook for CY19 on recovery 0.0% being more broad-based in nature (33 of 40 companies -5.0% grew in double digits), a strong order backlog position that stands at a 10-year high (2.8x TTM sales), continued capex -10.0% by PSUs (roads, railways, environment and renewables) and capacity enhancement by early-cycle industries such as -15.0% bearings, abrasives, machine tools and welding 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 consumables, indicating a pick-up in production levels. Source: Companies, JM Financial - Growth at 5%+ for the 7th consecutive quarter - Highest growth in 30 quarters CAPEX UPTICK + FAVOURABLE - Order backlog at a decade-long high of 2.8x sales BASE = J-CURVE At a 30-quarter high, aggregate net sales growth stood at 21.8% YoY (price inflation adjusted growth at 17%), thus sustaining above the 5% level for the 7th consecutive TROUGH VALUATIONS WITH quarter, accentuated further in 2QFY19 owing to a RESILIENT MARGINS favourable base. Barring power gen, all segments grew in strong double digits, led by an uptick in capex activity. Operating margins have been improving steadily and are We constructed JM's Industrials PE Index, comprising 15 hovering near 8-year highs of 12.3% (ex-BHEL). Also, the key industrials companies, which acts as a proxy to sector cumulative order backlog for 2QFY19 stood at a decade- valuations. Our analysis shows that the index has a strong long high of INR 2,295bn (+18%), providing visibility for correlation to the operating margins cycle and is currently 2.8 years. Despite the absence of marquee projects in hovering at -1 standard deviation levels of 28x 1-year power and steel sectors, order inflows doubled, led by forward PE and 33x TTM PE. We believe recent price hikes exports, railways, construction, FGD, sugar, chemicals, across various industries, improving capacity utilisations paper, fertilisers and F&B. and softening commodity prices are likely to keep margins resilient in the medium term and eventually lead to a We continue to remain positive on the sector and our top revival in sector valuations, closer to the LT median of 39x picks are SKF India, Voltas, Kirloskar Oil Engines and Bharat 1-year forward PE and 42x TTM PE. Electronics. JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 3 Industrials 7 December 2018 Exhibit 1. Key charts IIP growth continues to be upwards of 5% Sales growth highest in 6 years, partly led by the base effect Industrials growth Industrials - adjusted (%) IIP YoY (%) Capital Goods YoY (%) 20.0 25.0% 20.0% 15.0 15.0% 10.0 10.0% 5.0 5.0% YoY (%)YoY 0.0% 0.0 -5.0% Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 May-15 May-16 May-17 -5.0 May-18 -10.0% -10.0 -15.0% 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 -15.0 2Q19 Investments witness a decline a pre-election year, private capex down 7% YoY Commodity prices have started cooling off lately 230 60% Private Inv YoY Govt Inv YoY 50% 220 40% 210 30% 200 190 20% 180 10% 170 0% 160 -10% 150 -20% Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun May-16 May-17 May-18 Oct 08 Oct 09 Feb 09 Oct 10 Feb 10 Oct 11 Feb 11 Oct 12 Feb 12 Oct 13 Feb 13 Oct 14 Feb 14 Oct 15 Feb 15 Oct 16 Feb 16 Oct 17 Feb 17 Oct 18 Feb Order backlog at decade high, at 2.8x TTM sales Order inflows doubled - led by construction, PSUs and international orders Order backlog (INR bn) Order backlog/TTM sales (x) Order inflow (INR bn) Book to bill ratio (x) 500 2.5 2,400 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 450 2.8 2.7 2.7 2,200 2.7 400 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 1.8 2.6 2.6 1.7 2.5 350 2,000 1.4 2.4 2.5 300 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.4 1.2 2.3 1.6 1.0 1,800 250 1.0 1.1 2.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 200 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1,600 2.1 150 100 0.5 1,400 1.9 50 1,200 1.7 - 0.0 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 EBITDA margins continue to remain strong Net profit growth is sturdy at 23%, ex-BHEL at 21% EBITDA % EBITDA % (ex-BHEL) Net profit (ex-BHEL) (INR mn) YoY % (ex-BHEL) 14.0% 30,000 40.0% 13.0% 12.6% 12.6% 12.3% 11.9% 30.0% 11.7% 11.7%11.6% 20,000 12.0% 11.2% 10.7% 10.8% 10.7% 11.0% 20.0% 10.0% 9.9% 10,000 9.4% 9.6% 10.0% 9.1% 9.1% 8.8% 8.6% 9.0% 10.0% 7.7% 7.9% 0 8.0% 0.0% 7.0% 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 -10,000 6.0% -10.0% 5.0% -20,000 -20.0% 4.0% 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 -30,000 -30.0% Source: Industry, Company, JM Financial JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 4 Industrials 7 December 2018 Exhibit 2. Industrials sector quarterly snapshot . Net Sales (INR mn) EBITDA (INR mn) EBITDA Margins Adj PAT (INR mn) 2Q18 2Q19 YoY (%) 2Q18 2Q19 YoY (%) 2Q18 2Q19 Change (bps) 2Q18 2Q19 YoY (%) Power Generation BHEL 63,849 67,799 6.2 -954 2,408 NA -1.5 3.6 500bps 1,154 1,852 60.4 BGR Energy 5,174 7,772 50.2 771 729 -5.4 14.9 9.4 -550bps 11 69 511.5 Sub Total 69,023 75,571 9.5 -183 3,137 NA -0.3 4.2 440bps 1,165 1,921 64.8 Captive Power Thermax 10,331 14,276 38.2 952 1,100 15.6 9.2 7.7 -150bps 572 745 30.2 Triveni Turbines 2,170 2,168 -0.1 460 414 -9.9 21.2 19.1 -210bps 283 274 -3.2 TD Power Systems 1,262 980 -22.4 92 47 -49.1 7.3 4.8 -250bps 49 -6 -111.2 ISGEC 6,393 10,057 57.3 430 516 19.9 6.7 5.1 -160bps 460 288 -37.4 Sub Total 20,156 27,482 36.3 1,933 2,077 7.4 9.6 7.6 -200bps 1,365 1,302 -4.6 Power T&D Equipment ABB 19,234 25,154 30.8 1,342 1,940 44.6 7.0 7.7 70bps 834 1,083 29.9 GE T&D 8,700 9,933 14.2 805 921 14.5 9.3 9.3 0bps 475 515 8.3 Siemens 30,447 38,020 24.9 2,201 2,814 27.9 7.2 7.4 20bps 2,302 2,792 21.3 Schneider Electric 2,697 3,191 18.3 -64 -55 -14.1 -2.4 -1.7 70bps -109 -203 85.5 Sub Total 61,078 76,298 24.9 4,283 5,620 31.2 7.0 7.4 40bps 3,502 4,188 19.6 Power T&D EPC Kalpataru Power 12,228 15,741 28.7 1,329 1,709 28.6 10.9 10.9 0bps 715 914 27.8 KEC International 21,322 24,085 13.0 2,158 2,532 17.3 10.1 10.5 40bps 894 963 7.8 Sub Total 33,550 39,826 18.7 3,487 4,241 21.6 10.4 10.6 30bps 1,609 1,877 16.7 Transformer manufacturers Bharat Bijlee 1,751 2,378 35.8 105 106 1.1 6.0 4.4 -150bps 63 61 -3.3 Emco 858 402 -53.2 -54 -138 NA -6.2 -34.4 NA -303 -379 NA Indo Tech 429 499 16.2 -37 -3 NA -8.6 -0.5 810bps -40 -11 NA TRIL 1,658 1,867 12.6 145 78 -45.8 8.7 4.2 -450bps 28 -7 -123.8 Voltamp 1,289 1,890 46.6 86 191 121.4 6.7 10.1 340bps 153 154 0.8 Sub total 5,986 7,036 17.5 245 234 -4.5 4.1 3.3 -80bps -99 -182 84.4 Engines Cummins 11,539 14,869 28.9 1,675 2,509 49.8 14.5 16.9 240bps 1,529 2,116 38.4 Kirloskar Oil Engines 6,467 7,620 17.8 570 658 15.4 8.8 8.6 -20bps 299 412 37.9 Greaves Cotton 4,524 4,951 9.4 679 733 8.0 15.0 14.8 -20bps 429 494 15.0 Sub Total 22,530 27,440 21.8 2,923 3,900 33.4 13.0 14.2 120bps 2,257 3,022 33.9 Bearings SKF India 6,798 7,660 12.7 1,111 1,227 10.5 16.3 16.0 -30bps 740 843 14.0 Schaeffler India 10,040 11,915 18.7 1,677 1,997 19.0 16.7 16.8 10bps 959 1,298 35.4 Timken India 3,102 4,138 33.4 538 704 31.0 17.3 17.0 -30bps 373 346 -7.2 NRB Bearings 2,082 2,510 20.6 383 461 20.4 18.4 18.4 0bps 211 291 38.3 Sub Total 22,022 26,224 19.1 3,708
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