Country Partnership Strategy Final Review

December 2015

Afghanistan (2009 to mid-2015)

ABBREVIATIONS

ADB – Asian Development Bank ADF – Asian Development Fund AIB – Afghanistan International Bank AIGF – Afghanistan Investment Guarantee Facility AITF – Afghanistan Infrastructure Trust Fund ANDS – Afghanistan National Development Strategy ANR – agriculture and natural resources APPF – Afghan Public Protection Force CAPE – country assistance program evaluation CAREC – Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation COBP – country operations business plan CPS – country partnership strategy CSPU – country strategy and program update DABS – Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (Afghanistan Electricity Corporation) DMF – design and monitoring framework EIRR – economic internal rate of return FCAS – fragile and conflict-affected situation GDP – gross domestic product GWh – gigawatt-hour ICSP – interim country strategy and program ICT – information and communication technology IWRM – integrated water resources management JFPR – Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction km – kilometer kWh – kilowatt hour MAIL – Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock MEW – Ministry of Energy and Water MFF – multitranche financing facility MW – megawatt MPW – Ministry of Public Works MRRD – Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development NPP – National Priority Program O&M – operation and maintenance PMO – project management office PSM – public sector management TA – technical assistance

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. STRATEGIC CONTEXT 1 III. ASSESSMENT OF CPS PERFORMANCE 3 A. Relevance 3 B. Effectiveness 7 C. Efficiency 11 D. Sustainability 14 E. Development Impacts 15 F. Performance of Nonsovereign Operations 18 G. ADB and Borrower Performance 19 H. Overall Assessment 20 IV. LESSONS 21 V. RECOMMENDATIONS 22 A. Inclusive Economic Growth 22 B. Cross-Cutting Themes and Drivers of Change 23 C. Sector Selection 23 D. Enabling Environment for Private Sector 23 E. Addressing Security Risks 24 F. Enhance Monitoring and Reporting of Outcomes and Impacts 24

APPENDIXES 1. ADB Loans, Grants, and TAs Active During 2009 to mid-2015 2. Afghanistan Country Partnership Strategy 2009–2013: Objectives and Expected Outcomes 3. Consistency of Country Partnership Strategy and Afghanistan National Development Strategy Objectives and Priorities 4. Performance Ratings of Completed Sovereign Projects, 2009 to mid-2015 5. Performance Assessment of Physically Completed Projects and Technical Assistance, 2009 to mid-2015 6. Performance Assessment of Ongoing Projects and Technical Assistance, 2009 to mid- 2015 7. Progress Under Results Framework from Country Operations Business Plan 2013–2014 8. Performance Assessment of Nonsovereign Operations, 2009 to mid-2015 9. CPS Final Review Ratings Methodology 10. Comparison of CPS Final Review Ratings and CAPE Ratings

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) final review covers the Afghanistan CPS 2009–2013 and up until mid-2015. The purpose of the CPS final review is to assess the performance of ADB’s operations in the country and guide the development of the next CPS for Afghanistan. The criteria used in the final review entail relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, sustainability, and development impacts. The final review also assesses ADB’s and the government’s performances in the implementation of ADB-financed operations and offers lessons and recommendations for the next CPS.

The CPS 2009–2013 followed ADB’s Initial Country Strategy and Program and the subsequent Country Strategy and Program Updates, and its strategic directions were extended to the Interim CPS 2014–2015. The objective of the CPS 2009–2013 was accelerated economic growth and poverty reduction. The priority sectors were energy, transport, and agriculture and natural resources (ANR). The CPS was closely aligned with the Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS), the government’s poverty reduction strategy.

ADB has operated in an extremely challenging environment in Afghanistan. While it appeared that the conflict was ebbing in the mid-2000s, violence escalated substantially in 2009 and then again in 2015, demonstrating that the conflict is increasing in its intensity rather than winding down. Insecurity remains the largest constraint to development in Afghanistan. Other key challenges include a large illicit economy driven by narcotics, high poverty, low school enrollment rates, inequality for women and girls, and a substantial percentage of the population comprised of returned refugees.

In the assessment of the CPS, the program is rated relevant. The CPS 2009–2013 was consistent with the needs of Afghanistan as defined under the ANDS priorities, aligned with ADB’s Strategy 2020, and the sector choices were focused and appropriate. The design of the CPS was relevant to supporting inclusive growth, with most of the operations supporting ADB’s inclusive growth pillars 1 and 2. Inclusiveness figured prominently in program and project designs, particularly for transport and ANR projects. ADB’s coordination with other development partners varied from sector to sector, but overall ADB performed fairly well in building partnerships and coordination. ADB’s Afghanistan Infrastructure Trust Fund contributed in part to this result. A key shortcoming in the relevance criterion, however, was that security issues and the conflict situation were not factored adequately into ADB’s project designs and operations.

ADB’s program is rated effective due to the progress made towards achieving outcomes during the review period, with the transport sector being given the most weight due to its large proportion of the overall portfolio. The transport sector is rated effective due to (i) the number of kilometers of roads constructed, (ii) a decrease in intercity travel time, (iii) increased access to public service facilities, (iv) increased traffic volume, (v) reduced transport costs, and (vi) vehicle operating costs savings. The energy sector is given a rating of effective because of a higher grid connected electrification rate, increased megawatts in the North East Power System, surpassing the target for reduced system losses, and other achievements. The ANR sector is rated less than effective as a result of some cancellations, reductions in project scope, and low project effectiveness ratings. Other sectors such as public sector management, finance, and multisector were all rated less than effective. However, important contributions have been made by ADB to policy dialogue, reforms, and sector planning and governance in the sectors that ADB has engaged. ii

The efficiency rating is less than efficient. Most projects across all sectors have consistently experienced start up and implementation delays, cost overruns, and occasionally underutilization of funds. Most of the delays can be attributed to security conditions at project sites, limited capacities of government agencies, project design and recruitment issues, a changing legal environment, long customs clearances, and harsh weather. Contract award ratios and disbursement ratios were typically below the ADB average, but in some years they were as good or better.

Overall, the program is assessed as less than likely sustainable, but developments in government actions and improved capacities to finance operations and maintenance indicated greater likelihood of sustainability in the near future. The energy and ANR sectors are rated as likely sustainable because, in the case of energy, the electricity utility DABS is able to cover all of its operations and maintenance costs, while in ANR communities and farmers groups are taking care of operations and maintenance for small irrigation infrastructures. The transport sector is rated less than likely sustainable because of a shortfall in necessary financing for operations and maintenance for roads despite the imposition of a fuel tax. The railway, however, is deemed sustainable as a result of the successful performance-based operations and maintenance contract. Finance, public sector management, and multisector are all assessed as less than likely sustainable.

The rating for development impacts is less than satisfactory due to limited or inconclusive contributions to Afghanistan’s broader development results and inclusive growth, and only mixed results for cross-sector and thematic areas. However, sector level impacts are more notable, particularly in energy and transport.

ADB had limited nonsovereign operations during the review period, but these operations are rated successful. Projects for the telecommunications firm Roshan and Afghanistan International Bank performed well, and both companies are leaders in their respective fields. The two downsides to ADB’s nonsovereign operations were that the nonsovereign political risk guarantee was not utilized and no new private sector operations were initiated during the CPS period.

ADB’s performance is assessed as satisfactory based on close alignment with the government’s priorities, focused operations, attention to capacity building, and contributions to the preparation of sector road maps. Also, ADB mobilized over $375 million in official cofinancing during the review period. The government’s performance is rated as less than satisfactory due to issues about lack of ownership in some ministries, capacity weaknesses, governance concerns, and shortcomings on fulfilling project covenants. However, the government has shown improvements in financial and project management capacities, donor coordination, and delivering a consistent message to development partners about the country’s development priorities.

The overall assessment for ADB’s operations during 2009 to mid-2015 is successful on the borderline with a rating of 1.64 (with successful on the borderline meaning a rating between 1.60 and 1.75 in ADB’s rating system, and a successful score ranging between 1.60 and 2.49). A successful rating is considered to be a remarkable and significant achievement given the challenging circumstances in which ADB’s operations take place in Afghanistan.

Key lessons learned from the final review are the following:

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(i) Security issues and security risk management need to be more central in project design and implementation in conflict situations such as Afghanistan, even in areas of the country that are considered relatively secure. (ii) A focused program concentrated in a few sectors eases the burden on governments with limited capacities. (iii) Improving efficiency requires ensuring better quality at entry, strengthening capacities at startup, increasing supervision, and having realistic timeframes. (iv) Improved results frameworks and monitoring systems can strengthen the results orientation of ADB support.

In preparing the next CPS, the final review offers several recommendations:

(i) ADB should focus on inclusive economic growth. This ought to include: a. Ensuring greater local participation in planning. b. Ensuring that project designs include explicit benefits for lower income groups. c. Developing synergies with other development partners to address a greater totality of communities’ development needs. d. Achieving greater balance among the pillars of ADB’s inclusive economic growth strategic agenda. (ii) Devote more attention to cross-cutting themes and drivers of change. (iii) ADB and the government should continue to partner on transport, energy, and agriculture and natural resources sectors in the next CPS. (iv) Devote more efforts to developing an enabling environment to support prospective nonsovereign opportunities. (v) Strengthen risk assessment and risk management approaches for ADB projects. Ways to strengthen could entail: a. Training for ADB project officers and counterpart government officials on assessing and managing security risks. b. Require security assessments, security plans, and risk mitigation for all projects. c. Give a greater role to the Afghanistan Resident Mission’s Security Unit in project security matters. d. Apply conflict-sensitive approaches to ADB’s operations. (vi) Enhance results orientation and measurement, and strengthen results tracking and reporting. (vii) Discontinue the use of design-build contracts.

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I. INTRODUCTION

1. Afghanistan has been a member of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) since 1966. Cumulative assistance (lending, grants, and technical assistance [TA]) totals $4.03 billion.1 ADB is currently one of the leading development partners in Afghanistan in terms of level of assistance, and it is the largest on-budget supporter in the transport and energy sectors.

2. ADB’s Operations Manual Section A2/OP calls for an evaluation of a country partnership strategy (CPS) prior to preparing a new one. A Country Assistance Program Evaluation (CAPE) for Afghanistan was prepared in 2012 and covered operations from 2002 to 2011.2 Since the CAPE did not cover the whole CPS for Afghanistan during 2009–2013, a CPS final review is being conducted. This final review assesses ADB’s country operations in Afghanistan during the CPS 2009–2013 and up until June 2015 (see Appendix 1 for list of projects). It also considers the performance of loans, grants, and advisory TAs approved before 2009 that were ongoing during the CPS period.

3. The final review serves as an input to formulating the new CPS by assessing past performance and identifying lessons and recommendations for future operations. The final review follows the evaluation criteria contained in ADB’s 2015 Guidelines for the Preparation of Country Assistance Program Evaluations and Country Partnership Strategy Final Review Validations.3 The criteria entail relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, sustainability, and development impacts. This review also considers ADB and the Afghanistan government’s performance in the implementation of ADB-financed operations, and concludes with lessons and recommendations for the new CPS.

II. STRATEGIC CONTEXT

4. Afghanistan is an extremely challenging environment for development assistance. The conflict in Afghanistan has continued since the Taliban were driven out of power in 2001. While it appeared that the conflict was ebbing in the mid-2000s, violence escalated substantially in 2009 and then again in 2015, demonstrating that the conflict is increasing in its intensity rather than winding down. Insecurity remains the largest constraint to development in Afghanistan.

5. Although the Afghanistan economy averaged over 8.0% annual growth during 2003- 2014, much of the growth was attributed to the surge in foreign aid and security spending. Growth, however, has slowed considerably the last two years (2013 and 2014) due to the drawdown of the international security forces and the uncertainty during and after the presidential election in 2014, which was the first democratic transfer of power in Afghanistan. Into 2015, the escalating insurgency and the lengthy delay in appointing a complete government contributed to another year of relatively slow growth, with economic growth forecasted to reach only 2.5%.4 The prospects for growth are limited over the medium-term, as foreign assistance is expected to decline in the coming years.

6. Afghanistan faces extensive challenges in other realms. The illicit economy due to narcotics is large and exacerbates corruption and the insurgency. Poverty is estimated to be

1 Based on ADB’s Loan, TA, Grant and Equity Approvals database as of 10 July 2015. 2 Asian Development Bank. 2012. Country Assistance Program Evaluation: Afghanistan. Manila. 3 Asian Development Bank. 2015. 2015 Guidelines for the Preparation of Country Assistance Program Evaluations and Country Partnership Strategy Final Review Validations. Manila. 4 Asian Development Bank. 2015. Asian Development Outlook Update. Manila. 2

36.5%, essentially unchanged from 2007-2008,5 which means the high growth rates between 2007 and 2012 had virtually no impact on poverty. Despite the impressive gains made in school enrollments for boys and especially girls since 2001, an estimated 30% of school age children are not enrolled in school. The situation for women and girls has improved considerably from the Taliban regime, but gender equality indicators are among the worst in Asia. Additionally, around one quarter of the population is made up of refugees who have returned to Afghanistan during the past decade. Many of these people are homeless and jobless living in temporary camps for returnees with no public services available to them such as schools, water and sanitation, and electricity. These and other problems pose extensive challenges and strains to the government beyond the critical security issues. However, the government’s ability to finance the numerous development priorities is extremely limited, with domestic revenue equivalent to a mere 8.5% of GDP in 2014. Due to these conditions, Afghanistan has relied heavily on development assistance from a number of multilateral and bilateral partners.

7. Since the resumption of ADB’s operations in Afghanistan in 2002, ADB and the government have had an Initial Country Strategy and Program (ICSP) 2002–2004, three Country Strategy and Program Updates (CSPUs) for 2003–2005, 2004–2006, and 2006–2008, the CPS 2009–2013, and an interim CPS 2014–2015.

8. The ICSP of 2002 included as priority sectors agriculture and natural resources (ANR), education, health, transport and communications, energy, finance, and water supply and sanitation. The three CSPUs dropped the social sectors and water supply and sanitation, leaving ANR, energy, transport and communications, and to a limited extent finance as the priority sectors. The reduction in priority sectors was in response to the government’s request for each development partner to prioritize three sectors.

9. The objective of the CPS 2009–2013, the focus of this final review, was accelerated economic growth and poverty reduction (Appendix 2).6 The priority sectors under the CPS were energy, transport and communications, and ANR. The thematic focus intended to cover counter- narcotics, gender, governance, private sector development, and regional cooperation.7 The interim CPS 2014–2015 extends the validity of the CPS 2009–2013 and continues ADB’s focus on the three priority sectors.

10. The key government strategy during this review period is the Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS) 2008–2013, the government’s poverty-reduction strategy.8 ANDS envisioned a stable Afghanistan by 2020 based on constitutional democracy with social equity, environmental sustainability, and a market economy led by the private sector. The three pillars of ANDS are (i) security; (ii) governance, rule of law, and human rights; and (iii) economic and social development. The third pillar, economic and social development, is most relevant to ADB’s operations and contains 13 “sector strategies”: (i) private sector development, (ii) energy, (iii) mining, (iv) water and irrigation, (v) transport, (vi) ICT, (vii) urban development, (viii) education, (ix) culture, media, and youth, (x) health and nutrition, (xi) agriculture and rural development, (xii) social protection, and (xiii) refugees, returnees, and internally displaced persons. In addition, ANDS includes six crosscutting issues covering (i) regional cooperation, (ii)

5 Central Statistical Office. 2014. National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 2011-2012. Kabul. 6 Asian Development Bank. 2008. Country Partnership Strategy: Afghanistan, 2009-2013. Manila. 7 It is not clear if capacity development was intended to be a thematic focus in the CPS or not. It is included in the main text in para. 73, but it was excluded from the CPS thematic focus shown in Figure 1 of the main text and from Appendix 6 on Country Sector and Theme Road Maps. 8 Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. 2008. Afghanistan National Development Strategy 1387–1391 (2008–2013): A Strategy for Security, Governance, Economic Growth & Poverty Reduction.

3 environment, (iii) gender equity, (iv) anticorruption, (v) capacity development, and (vi) counter- narcotics. To attain this vision, ANDS set goals to be achieved by 2013 through 22 national priority programs (NPPs).9 The programs have been continued by the government beyond 2013 in order to achieve the goals and vision by 2020.

11. The government has also prepared an economic development strategy, Towards Self- Reliance,10 which covers the transition period (2012–2014) and the transformation decade (2015–2024). It contains three pillars: infrastructure development, private sector development, and agriculture and rural development. The cross-cutting themes are gender, counter-narcotics, and environment. Additionally, the government put out Realizing Self-Reliance: Commitments to Reforms and Renewed Partnership in December 2014 for the London Conference on Afghanistan. The document serves as a statement of commitment to the reform agenda that can help Afghanistan move towards peace, recovery, productivity, and growth.

12. The key challenge in Afghanistan is to overcome the widespread insecurity that the country currently faces. An improved security environment would lead to significant improvements in economic growth and the effectiveness and efficiency of development programs and projects. ADB’s operations in the country would also benefit from lower costs, higher efficiency, enhanced monitoring, and greater development impacts.

III. ASSESSMENT OF CPS PERFORMANCE

A. Relevance

13. The formulation and implementation of the CPS is rated relevant given its (i) consistency with country needs, (ii) alignment with ADB’s Strategy 2020, (iii) appropriateness of sector focus, (iv) mix of lending modalities including grants and TA, (v) design for inclusive growth, (vi) inclusiveness of program and project designs, and (vii) enhanced partnerships.

14. Consistency with country needs. The CPS 2009–2013 was consistent with the needs of Afghanistan as defined under the ANDS 2008‒2013 priorities (Appendix 3). To achieve social and economic development, ANDS called for strategic interventions in, among other sectors, energy, transport, agriculture and rural development, and water and irrigation—main areas which the CPS focused on. Specific sector programs and interventions were also aligned with those identified in ANDS and its respective sector plans/road maps. Government ministries as well as development partners have confirmed the proper matching of ADB priority sectors to the country’s needs.11 Thematic priorities identified in the CPS were also consistent with ANDS which include counter-narcotics, capacity development, gender mainstreaming, regional cooperation, and governance.

15. Alignment with the ADB strategy. The CPS was aligned with ADB’s Strategy 2020 in moving towards inclusive growth and regional integration.12 The CPS aimed to support the country’s economic and social development and poverty reduction. In particular, the CPS and

9 NPPs were grouped in six clusters: (i) peace, (ii) human resources development), (iii) infrastructure development, (iv) private sector development, (v) agriculture and rural development, and (vi) governance. 10 Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. 2012. Towards Self-Reliance: Strategic Vision for the Transformation Decade. Kabul. 11 Central and West Asia Department, ADB. July 2015. Back to Office Report on the Country Partnership and Strategy Final Review. 12 ADB. 2008. Strategy 2020: The Long-Term Strategic Framework of the Asian Development Bank 2008–2020. Manila.

4 the accompanying country operations business plans (COBPs) intended to enhance inclusive growth through infrastructure investments resulting in higher economic growth, connecting poor people to markets, and increasing access of the poor to basic productive assets and social services. Programmed interventions were also directed at regional integration, particularly in transport and energy, to boost mobility, trade, and access to services among countries. The CPS was also in sync with the ADB strategy as it placed importance on the role of good governance, capacity development, gender equity, private sector development and partnerships in achieving development outcomes.

16. Sector selectivity. Sector choices in the CPS were appropriate, focusing on three priority sectors that are in line with ADB’s strengths. ADB also ensured continuity in its Figure 1. Sovereign Portfolio: choice of priority sectors going back to the Percentage Share of Grants and TA Approved in 2009 to mid-2015 earlier CSPUs. During 2009 to mid-2015, approved sovereign operations amounting to $2.2 billion largely went to the transport sector ANR 12% (59%), energy (29%), and ANR (12%) (Figure 1). Transport ($1.3 billion) comprised mostly the Ring Road and other corridors. Projects in energy ($641 million) and ANR ($266 million) ENE TRANS 29% were mostly in electricity transmission and 59% distribution and irrigation, respectively. The sector selections and spread were strategic in terms of the synergies of their results towards FIN 0.02% the country’s socio-economic development. PSM 0.05% MULTI 17. Less than 1% of the total sovereign 0.09% portfolio approved during the CPS was allocated to finance, public sector ANR=agriculture and natural resources, ENE=energy, FIN=finance, MULTI=multisector, PSM=public sector management, management (PSM), and multisector TRANS=transport operations. These were mostly TAs which Source: ADB database. complemented operations of the three core sectors.13

18. In terms of all projects ongoing during the CPS review period (i.e., those approved before 2009 but active during the CPS period and those approved between 2009 and mid- 2015), the portfolio totaled $3.7 billion. The sector breakdown was similar to approvals during 2009 to mid-2015 with transport: 51.9%, energy: 23.9%, ANR: 12.3%, multisector: 8.4%, finance: 1.8%, and PSM: 1.7%.

19. Selection of modalities. As proposed in the CPS, Afghanistan was provided with 100% grant support through the Asian Development Fund (ADF), Afghanistan Infrastructure Trust Fund (AITF), Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction (JFPR), Clean Energy Fund, and Water Financing Partnership Facility. This is consistent with the debt sustainability analysis which placed the country at high risk of debt distress. The use of the multitranche financing facility (MFF) was also seen as appropriate given its flexibility, predictability, and frontloading of analytical work which facilitated project execution. The use of MFFs also helped to execute

13 Technical assistance focused on strengthening government capacity to coordinate financing of infrastructure projects (multisector), strengthening capacity of microfinance institutions and commercial banks (finance), and preparation of the security plans for project implementation (public sector management).

5 sector priorities that aimed to address gaps in infrastructure, policy, and capacity within the transport, energy, and ANR sectors.14 However, there were instances when tranche releases were used to augment financing of other projects outside of the scope of the MFF.15

20. The CAPE critiques the frequent use of design-build contracts by ADB in Afghanistan. While there are downsides to these contracts as noted in the CAPE, there are also some benefits to them and their applicability to Afghanistan’s circumstances, such as the difficulty in getting qualified contractors to work in the country. However, this final review concurs with the CAPE that design-build contracts have been overall unsuccessful. Rather than shortening implementation periods and achieving savings as expected from design-build contracts, their use has caused extensive cost overruns and delays. Moreover, as noted in the CAPE, the design-build contracts have not enabled government ministries to build their capacities in planning and design, contract management, and construction oversight.

21. Relevance of CPS design for inclusive growth. The design of the CPS is assessed as relevant to support inclusive growth. The selection of the three priority sectors intended to support pillar 1 (growth and expansion of opportunities) and pillar 2 (access to jobs and opportunities) of ADB’s inclusive economic growth strategic agenda. The transport and energy sectors supported pillar 1, and the agriculture and irrigation initiatives supported pillar 2. Although no sectors were selected in the CPS to directly support pillar 3 on social protection, the Road Employment Project for Settlement and Integration of Returning Refugees and Displaced Persons project16 helped to address pillar 3 by providing livelihood and employment opportunities to returning refugees and displaced persons. Additionally, most of the transport initiatives and all of the agriculture and irrigation initiatives can be seen as pro-poor because they took place in rural areas where a higher proportion of the poor live.

22. Inclusiveness of program and project designs. Inclusiveness figured prominently in transport and ANR projects. Investment projects and TAs in transport incorporated inclusive growth strategies that provided livelihood and employment opportunities and increased access to social services among vulnerable and disadvantaged groups, including poor farmers and women. In ANR projects, while designs were mainly inclusive, baselines and targets were formulated with ambiguity (i.e., no data disaggregation between poor and nonpoor, women and men) and obtaining reliable data has been problematic. In more recent projects, improved results frameworks for gender mainstreaming were observed.

23. Enhanced partnerships. The strength of ADB’s coordination with other development partners has varied from sector to sector. In some sectors, such as transport and energy, strong donor coordination has occurred. The Interministerial Commission for Energy, financed through ADB TA, was noted by some donors as making important coordination contributions to the sector. But in other sectors such as PSM ADB has not been very active in coordination, partly because no one at the Afghanistan Resident Mission is assigned to cover the sector. Also, in ANR one ministry noted the lack of coordination among donors, many of whom are interested in working in the Panj-Amu basin.

14 While delays in project start up and implementation were experienced in most MFFs, these issues were not inherent in the use of the modality. Most operations in the country were constrained by security and capacity issues which negatively affected project duration and cost. 15 In the case of Andkhoy-Qaisar Road Project (37075-013), an MFF tranche (42095-022) was used to finance the counterpart contribution ($18.6 million) that the government failed to provide. Total civil works contract cost was $76.6 million. 16 Asian Development Bank. 2002. Road Employment Project for Settlement and Integration of Returning Refugees and Displaced Persons. Manila. First approved in 2002 but also supplementary financing approved in 2007.

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24. Division of support among development partners has worked well within some sectors. For example, in the transport sector ADB has been focused on road construction and rehabilitation while USAID has focused on institutional development of the road authority and road fund. Working within each sector’s road map created synergies on the development partners’ efforts in supporting government priorities.17

25. Additionally, the establishment of the ADB’s AITF in 2010 has helped to harmonize aid and build partnerships in key infrastructure sectors, but the number of contributors has remained limited to only three. As of 30 June 2015, the total amount committed by AITF donors was $490.5 million and the total amount received was $350.65 million from the governments of Japan (Embassy of Japan, $126.0 million), United States (USAID, $105.0 million), and United Kingdom (DFID, $119.6 million out of a total commitment of $259.5 million). AITF has been seen by some donors as lacking flexibility, particularly in the early years. As a result, AITF’s implementation arrangements were revised and approved by the ADB’s Board of Directors in May 2012 to make AITF operationally more flexible and more responsive to contributors’ own requirements. The AITF’s Implementation Guidelines were accordingly revised to reflect these changes.

26. Feedback from the government and other development partners indicates that ADB has done fairly well overall in building partnerships and coordination, but more efforts could be done in some sectors. One concern from development partners is that ADB needs to improve the quality and frequency of its reporting to cofinanciers. Furthermore, enhancing intersectoral linkages is an area where coordination can be improved (footnote 11).

27. Addressing security risks. Security is deteriorating in many parts of the country that were previously identified as relatively safe, thereby affecting ongoing ADB projects. ADB is also now implementing projects in higher risk areas such as Helmand province. While security risks have been recognized as a major constraint in program and project implementation in Afghanistan, measures to mitigate these risks were often not well thought out or made specific to the project context and location. In some cases, general statements on mitigating security risks were mentioned in project documents (often copied from other projects) instead of specific fragility and security measures tailored to the project, and their cost implications were often not well integrated in the design, or the security budgets are often unrealistic in order to lower the bid proposal. In most cases, project designs have been similar to what would be done in non- conflict settings. Also, some projects became reactive as security risks emerged, often as a result of unanticipated changing security conditions in project sites. Failure to properly forecast risks and actual security costs as well as to integrate and implement appropriate detailed measures to address security concerns have led to costly delays and contributed to some projects (or their components) being suspended or cancelled altogether. This has affected the amount of benefits to local communities. Despite these ongoing issues, the security unit at the Afghanistan Resident Mission has not been adequately harnessed to advise on security issues, review proposed security measures in projects, or assist in monitoring or assessing security conditions at project sites.18

17 In the energy sector, particularly MFF Energy Sector Development Investment Program (42094), components that were cancelled or dropped were picked up by other development partners. 18 The current Field Security Advisor’s terms of reference is to provide security advice on AITF projects, but he has been used almost exclusively for managing security at the Afghanistan Resident Mission.

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28. Interviews with government ministries highlighted the need to consistently include security as part of project design. The security arrangements, usually provided through the Afghan Public Protection Force (APPF) for larger projects, have often not adequately secured project sites, but it is currently a requirement from the government when security is needed for a project.

29. Afghanistan continues to be regarded as a post-conflict country despite the difficult security environment. Overall, it is deemed that security issues and the conflict situation were not adequately factored into ADB’s project designs and operations during the CPS period. This is the key shortcoming under the relevance criterion.

30. Quality of CPS results framework. The CPS results framework needed improvement. Some outcome statements could have been better used as indicators, and some indicators could have been appropriately used as outputs or intermediate outcomes. More critically, there was a lack of consistency between the CPS period and the target years in which outcomes were to be achieved. Much of the results framework adopted the target year set forth in the Afghanistan Compact and ANDS which was set for 2010, while the CPS coverage was up to 2013. The COBP for 2013–2014 updated the 2009 results framework. Furthermore, many indicators in the CPS results framework lacked baselines. The quality of the design and monitoring frameworks (DMFs) of projects was also often lacking. Outcomes were often actually outputs, and frequently DMFs needed more realistic and monitorable targets. This also applies to the preparation of overall MFF and tranche results frameworks.

31. Relevance ratings of completed and ongoing projects. Of the 32 projects completed during the CPS period, 27 had a relevance rating. Out of these 27, 96% (N=26) were rated relevant or highly relevant (Appendix 4).19 All projects in energy, transport, finance, multisector, public health, and PSM have been assessed with positive relevance ratings. Relevance of operations in ANR is 83% (1 project out of 6 with a rating was less than relevant). The high percentage of relevant projects reflects the appropriateness of the CPS objectives and the focus on addressing country needs and alignment with ADB’s strategies (paras. 10‒12). Appendices 5 and 6 provide matrices of the assessment of relevance and the other evaluation criteria for completed and ongoing projects.

B. Effectiveness

32. Progress towards achieving outcomes during the CPS period is assessed as effective. This assessment is based on the (i) measure of outcomes identified under the COBP 2013– 2014’s results framework which provides updated targets for the CPS under review (Appendix 7),20 (ii) overall effective rating of the projects completed during the CPS period (Table 2 in Appendix 5), and (iii) likelihood of ongoing projects in achieving outputs and outcomes (Table 2 in Appendix 6). ADB support in Afghanistan has yielded encouraging outcomes in transport and energy but less so in other sectors.

33. Transport. The transport sector is rated effective. The objective of ADB operations in transport is to provide improved low cost, reliable transport connectivity for goods and people within Afghanistan and cross-border. There have been some consistency issues with regard to what was targeted and what has been measured. For example, one indicator in the results

19 Eight projects (29.6%) were rated highly relevant. 20 COBP 2013–2014 indicators and targets are seen as more appropriate than the CPS results framework because of the inherent weaknesses in the results framework and an inability to measure many of its indicators for lack of data.

8 framework was increased connectivity, but the actual measured result is kilometers of roads.21 Despite differences in measuring progress against the target indicators, measures of results have indicated (i) 643 km of roads constructed/rehabilitated,22 (ii) a decrease in intercity travel time (65-75%), (iii) an increase in access to the nearest health, primary education and other essential services given the reduction in travel time, (iv) an increase in traffic volume, (v) 40- 50% reduction in public transportation costs on selected routes, (vi) 25-41% savings on vehicle operating costs, and (vii) freight transport via railway increased by 41 million tons with 45% cost reduction. Despite delays in implementation, most ongoing projects are likely to contribute to these outcomes.

34. Other achievements that were not targeted in the sector results framework include (i) 50% increase in the number of flights and passengers with the rehabilitation of airports, (ii) at least 10,000 refugees and displaced persons obtained opportunities for livelihood, and (iii) enhanced capacities of the Ministry of Public Works (MPW) and Ministry of Transportation and Civil Aviation. In response to the potential for undesired outcomes of improved transport networks, mitigating interventions under transport projects have achieved positive results in sensitizing people on HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases. Most of the completed transport projects were rated effective (88%).

35. ADB has engaged in extensive policy dialogue on a wide variety of issues in the transport sector. Among the policy issues progressing with the Afghan transport sector authorities are:

 Making a more coherent institutional landscape: helping with reforms to streamline sector responsibilities across multiple transport ministries and agencies, and make sector governance more effective. This includes assisting in the establishment of new institutions such as a road authority and road fund (both pending), a railway authority (established), and an autonomous civil aviation agency (pending).

 Maintenance management of road assets: engaging with the government to address to backlog of maintenance needed for road assets in order to break the cycle of build- neglect-rebuild.

 O&M financing needs: through the ADB-financed Transport Master Plan Update, ADB has helped the government to estimate the total annual maintenance requirements at $251 million.

 Road asset management system: engaging in discussions to develop a rational and systematic O&M regime for the road sector that would create and maintain transport infrastructure in a cost-effective manner.

 Sustainable asset financing: conducting dialogue on the user-pays (cost recovery) principle in which users should be charged in accordance with the wear-and-tear they inflict on infrastructure assets.

21 Another example is the indicator for average speed in kilometers per hour but actual measurement in average travel time. 22 An additional 707 km of road improvements are in progress.

9

 Road contracting industry: promoting the development of the local road contracting industry to ensure that national contractors are assigned a greater share of the road works performed in Afghanistan.

 Trade logistics: assisting the country to reduce its trade transaction costs and improve its transport logistics.

 Transport and climate change: working with the government to build resilient transport infrastructure systems to significantly reduce hazard exposure and vulnerability to climate change.

36. Energy. The energy sector is rated effective. The objective of the energy sector is to improve access to affordable and reliable energy to most households. Despite mixed results in the effectiveness of completed projects (2 out of 3 were rated effective), ADB support has generally yielded positive outcomes. Progress has been made in increasing the grid connected electrification rate to 30% in 2015 which is ahead of meeting the 30% target in 2017. The North East Power System was capable of supplying 658 MW as of 2014 (from 150 MW in 2009) to make progress towards the target of 1,000 MW of connected load in 2017. The sector has already surpassed the 2017 target of 30% systems loss reduction, as it went down to 25% in 2014. However, the enactment of the Electricity Law is progressing much slower than expected.23 While the Cabinet has already approved the Electricity Law, it has yet to be passed by the Parliament. This legislation would give full financial and operational autonomy to the electricity company DABS, ensure appropriate tariff setting, and establish the electricity regulatory authority.

37. Other achievements cited in project completion reports that are not targeted in the CPS results framework include the reduction in electricity cost and increased electricity consumption. Connection targets for households, however, are not likely to be achieved as this component has sometimes been scrapped when the need to reduce project scope becomes necessary.24 For completed projects, the overall effectiveness rating is at 67% (N=3). As for ongoing projects, despite a difficult start, these will likely contribute to the achievement of sector outcomes as most projects are on track in terms of disbursements and contract awards as well as progress in completing outputs.

38. The government is implementing the energy sector road map, policy framework, and the envisaged investment plan as confirmed in the ADB-assisted power sector master plan, 2012– 2032 and the gas development master plan, 2015–2035, which have been integrated into the National Energy Supply Program. Vital achievements on the policy and institutional side were the (i) signing of power purchase sales agreements with Tajikistan and Turkmenistan that enhanced regional cooperation, (ii) creation of an autonomous power utility and formulation of tariffs for its operation—making progress towards unbundling, (iii) implementation of an Operations and Maintenance Program to ensure sustainability of operations and the Disconnection and Anti-theft Policy in various sector projects which addresses non-technical systems loss, (iv) revitalizing the Interministerial Commission for Energy that has proven to be an effective mechanism for programming investments and governance support, (v) updating of

23 Although the Electricity Law should be considered an output, it is listed as an outcome under the TA for Supporting the Interministerial Commission for Energy (46347). 24 The reduced household connections have occurred under the Power Transmission and Distribution Project (37078) and the MFF Energy Sector Development Investment Program tranches 1 and 2 (42094-012/022 and 42094-032).

10 the power sector master plan, (vi) formulation of the first ever gas development master plan, and (vii) a roadmap for renewable energy development.25

39. Agriculture and Natural Resources. The ANR sector is rated less than effective. ADB’s objective in agriculture and natural resources is to improve food self-sufficiency and increase agricultural exports. Projects in the ANR sector have experienced cancellations, reductions in project scope, and an effectiveness percentage of 20% of completed projects (N=5), and so the effectiveness in ANR is not as strong as in transport and energy. However, operations in the sector have exceeded the CPS target on irrigation coverage. Irrigation facilities from three ongoing projects are so far serving 60,389 hectares of agricultural land, which is more than the expected coverage by 2019.26 Furthermore, progress has been made in the operationalization of water users associations and community development councils as most are capable of undertaking operations and maintenance work on small-scale irrigation systems.

40. Other project achievements that contributed positively to the sector include, among others, 185,000 households that benefitted from agriculture-based livelihood activities in the provinces of Faryab, Sari Pul, and Jawzjan;27 and increased income of 10,000 producers and processors in Balkh, Bamyan and Nangarhar.28 Ongoing projects, despite initial delays, are likely to achieve their expected outputs and outcomes.

41. For policy and planning dialogue, ADB has led with the preparation of the Afghanistan Water Resource Sector Development Plan. The draft plan was developed in close cooperation with the Ministry of Energy and Water as the lead agency, plus seven other water related ministries, agencies, and entities. There are over 30 policy and regulatory recommendations in the plan. In addition, detailed water resource development master plans were prepared for the Helmand and Harirud river basins. There is also an ongoing TA on the economics of climate change that contains policy advice on climate change mitigation.

42. Contributing to a less than effective rating of some operations in the sector are lack of interest from implementing agencies (particularly during the introduction of integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach where the implementing agency requested changes in project activities to focus more on physical investments), and delays that led to reduced project scope and relevance as projects were affected by developments from other national programs (i.e., subprojects selected were no longer in demand, were seen as redundant, or had diminished linkages to the project they were supposed to support).

43. Public Sector Management. This assessment finds the PSM operations to be less than effective. ADB support focused on strengthening fiscal management, public administration, and statistical capacity of government offices. Most of these operations were characterized by extensions, cost overruns, and cancellation. While crucial building blocks for stronger PSM have been put in place, some targets have only been partly achieved or are still ongoing, suggesting

25 Future interventions under discussion include (i) development of a tariff model and framework, and (ii) development of a business plan for the power utility. 26 Actual coverage may be much higher as actual command areas served by some irrigation subprojects were not monitored and reported. Also of note is that the Emergency Infrastructure Rehabilitation and Reconstruction project (36673-013) achieved 100,000 ha of irrigated farm land in the Lower Balkh river basin. Asian Development Bank. 2009. Afghanistan: Emergency Infrastructure Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Project. Technical Assistance Completion Report. Manila. 27 Asian Development Bank. 2013. Implementation Completion Memorandum: Rural Recovery through Community- Based Irrigation Rehabilitation Project. Manila (JFPR 9039). 28 Asian Development Bank. 2013. Implementation Completion Memorandum: Rural Business Support Project in Afghanistan. Manila (JFPR 9100).

11 the need for more time to overcome capacity constraints. Support was also provided to enhance capacity to address security of ADB assets and investments. Even with the successful completion of the first TA on addressing security risks, integration of mitigation measures and corresponding costs have yet to be consistently reflected in project designs across sectors. Positive outcomes were evident on the statistical capacity building TA specifically for poverty monitoring and assessment to support ANDS. Also, ADB has provided policy advisory support to the Ministry of Finance, specifically the Minister of Finance and two Deputy Ministers of Finance. Advisors support the Ministry in making critical decisions on economic reforms, macroeconomic policy, fiscal policy, and the effective operation of government. By ensuring that these decisions are undertaken with as much information as possible, the costs and benefits are known, and sound analysis supports policy decisions that are more effective and contribute to the development of the country. The Ministry requested that this support from ADB continue, and ensure that capacity continues to be built more broadly in the Ministry.

44. Finance. Sector operations are assessed as less than effective. Completion reports of key sector programs confirmed that some targets were only partially achieved. Long gestation periods needed by institutional reform interventions in order to produce results as well as the need for complementary reforms account for this performance. There is also a difficulty in obtaining relevant statistics to compare with baseline data. However, ADB has been making contributions to policy development in the financial sector. ADB has supported financial sector development through specialist legal support to grow the nascent Islamic finance market. With many people not accessing formal finance and international investors looking for opportunities to invest in Shariah compliant ways, Islamic finance is seen as a significant growth opportunity. Quality regulation and financial oversight is critical to this growth and to ensure confidence in Islamic finance. ADB has therefore supported the Islamic Finance Division in Afghanistan's Central Bank as the regulator of Islamic banking in terms of the development of regulatory rules and guidelines, and building capacity of the division.

45. Multisector. Completion reports of sector operations have indicated mixed results for effectiveness. While most institutional and policy reform targets for the energy and transport sectors were achieved, physical targets under the emergency infrastructure operations were not.29 Sector operations are therefore assessed as less than effective.

C. Efficiency

46. ADB operations have been less than efficient in achieving results given project efficiency ratings, startup and implementation delays, slow disbursements, and cost adjustments. These have led to the reductions in project scope and inputs including project cancellations—reducing effectiveness of ADB support. On average, loans, grants and TAs have been extended by about 28.7 months before closing, with 16 projects having closing delays of more than 40 months.

47. Efficiency ratings. Out of 17 completed projects with an efficiency rating, 2 (11.8%) were rated highly efficient, 4 (23.5%) efficient, and 11 (64.7%) less than efficient. One project, the Hairatan to Mazar-e-Sharif Railway Project, was rated highly efficient in the completion report as a result of having exceeded its expected economic internal rate of return (EIRR) as well as thorough planning and management of construction, complemented with enhanced ADB project supervision, and expeditious approvals and release of payments.30 Two other transport

29 Asian Development Bank. 2009. Project Completion Report: Emergency Infrastructure Rehabilitation and Reconstruction. Manila. 30 Asian Development Bank. 2013. Project Completion Report: Hairatan to Mazar-e-Sharif Railway. Manila.

12 projects that have high internal rates of return were noted to have suffered from significant cost overruns and delays.31 One of these projects, the North-South Corridor Project, received a less than efficient rating, while the other was rated highly efficient.

48. Most interventions across sectors have consistently experienced implementation delays (time extensions), cost adjustment due to cost overruns, and underutilization of funds in some cases. Start up and implementation delays have been attributed to deteriorating security situations in the project sites, capacity constraints of and lack of initiative among executing and implementing agencies, poor absorptive capacity of target institutions, changes in the legal environment,32 design and recruitment issues,33 delays in customs clearance for equipment, and harsh weather conditions in project areas.

49. EIRRs. Despite these common efficiency issues, the EIRRs for completed projects are overall efficient. In six completed infrastructure projects for which there were eight EIRRs (some projects have multiple EIRRs for separate components), only one (Regional Airports Rehabilitation Project Phase 1) was below the standard 12% discount rate. However, only 50% of these eight EIRRs at completion were above the original EIRR estimates.

50. Portfolio performance. ADB’s portfolio performance during the review period is less than efficient. Contract award ratios for sovereign projects in Afghanistan exceeded the ADB- wide average for three of the six years covered in this review (see Figure 2). The disbursement ratios showed only two years better than or about equal to the ADB average (see Figure 3). This low disbursement was mainly on account of the active projects approved since 2005 which experienced delays and had their completion dates extended. Most projects during the CPS period are still ongoing and initially experienced slow progress given start up delays.

Figure 2: Contract Award Ratios for Sovereign Projects

50 AFG ADB 41.0 40 30.0 31.6 27.4 30 24.5 26.1 24.9 23.9 19.119.8 20

13.4 12.0 Percentage 10

0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

31 Asian Development Bank. 2010. Project Completion Report: Andkhoy-Qaisar Road in Afghanistan. Manila. Asian Development Bank. 2013. Project Completion Report: North-South Corridor Project in Afghanistan. Manila. 32 Particularly for PSM projects. 33 Including, among others, issues on protracted contract negotiations, difficulty to get interested consultants, poor quality of proposals, long duration to secure approval for design changes, and delayed compliance with implementation arrangements.

13

Note: Contract award ratio = contract awarded or the actual commitment (for financial intermediation loans) during the year over the value available for contract or commitment awards at the beginning of the year. Source: Contract Award/Commitment Ratio Reports, Operations Services and Financial Management Department.

Figure 3: Disbursement Ratio for Sovereign Loans and Grantsa 25 AFG ADB 21.1 19.9 20.2 20.4 20 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.3

15 11.3 9.8

10 Percentage 5.7 5.9 5

0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 a Excludes policy-based lending disbursements. Note: Disbursement Ratio is computed as the ratio of year-to-date disbursements to the undisbursed balance of loan/grant (net approved amount undisbursed less cancellations) at the beginning of the year. Source: Disbursement Ratio Reports, Controller’s Department.

51. Annual portfolio reviews reveal five key factors that account for the weaknesses in contract awards and disbursements:

(i) Contractor and consultant selection delays and capacities: Issues include (a) unwillingness of contractors and consultants to bid on projects because of security concerns, (b) repeated tendering due to weak bidders or lack of qualified bidders, (c) ADB requests for clarifications of bid evaluation reports, (d) inexperienced supervision consultants, and (e) non-performing contractors. (ii) Insecurity in Afghanistan: The poor security conditions in Afghanistan lead to (a) unwillingness of qualified firms to bid on projects, (b) delays in implementation and construction, and (c) requests for cost variations to cover additional security measures. Also, some projects have had poor security arrangements and security management practices that lead to delays. (iii) Lengthy procurement processes: Procurement delays result from (a) inexperience and weak procurement capacities of line ministries, (b) limited capacities of procurement committees, (c) disagreements between executing agencies’ procurement committees and ADB, and (d) long approval time by ADB for procurement packages and changes in scope. (iv) Safeguards: Safeguard issues include (a) land acquisition and resettlement delays, (b) insufficient budgeting for land acquisition by the government, (c) delays in government disbursement of funds for land acquisition, and (d) resettlement and gender action plans failing to meet ADB safeguard requirements. (v) Capacities of executing agencies and implementing agencies: Overall, government ministries and agencies have limited capacities, particularly in contract administration, project management, and financial management.

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D. Sustainability

52. Overall, the stream of benefits from ADB support is assessed as less than likely sustainable. While the sustainability percentage of completed projects across sectors is 44% (N=18), more recent developments in government actions and improvements in capacities to finance operations and maintenance (O&M) provide positive indications of the improved sustainability of outcomes, particularly of ADB operations in energy and ANR.

53. Transport. Transport sector operations are rated less than likely sustainable, but prospects for sustainability are improving. Completion reports have noted that financing and O&M of ADB projects are dependent on government allocation and donor commitments, particularly for road infrastructure. According to MPW, the government currently generates around $50 million per year from the fuel tax34 and earmarks an additional $17 million from its national budget for road maintenance. However, the government needs an estimated $100-120 million a year for O&M. To finance the gap, the government plans to increase the fuel tax from AF1 to AF1.5-2.0 per liter and introduce tolls for bridges and tunnels (footnote 9). However, the introduction of an off-budget revenue system requires the Ministry of Finance and MPW to agree on the salient features of a toll policy. This was an issue left unresolved when the toll policy was dropped in 2010. In contrast, the adoption of user charges in air transport and appropriate civil works design (which took into account longer life cycles of the airport’s physical infrastructure) points to a positive contribution in ensuring sustainability of outcomes. For railways, the Hairatan railway project’s sustained operational achievement is largely attributed to the outsourced performance-based O&M contract.35

54. In terms of institutional capacity, MPW has yet to build its capacity in road surveys and designs, including the ability to analyze connectivity and prioritize corridors for trade. In railways, the establishment and strengthening of the Afghanistan Railway Authority is expected to increase the government’s capacity for planning, development, and management of the railway subsector. Furthermore, under the outsourced performance-based O&M contract for the railway, 32 government staff members have already been trained, and additional training is planned for about 100 staff members over 2 years. Existing capacity of the Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation is seen as adequate in managing the country’s civil aviation.36

55. Energy. Sector operations are likely sustainable. A vital institution in the unbundling of the power sector in the country is the electricity authority, the Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS). DABS has gained financial autonomy, institutionalized its financial systems, and established a strong board of directors that is independent of regular government systems and protocols. DABS operates without government subsidies as it receives onlent donor funds from the Ministry of Finance, imposes tariff at cost recovery, currently achieves a 90% collection rate across the country, and covers all of its O&M costs (currently allocates about $10 million annually in O&M expenditures). Its project management office has full staff complement being supported by ADB through an MFF. Coordination of sector priorities is achieved through the Interministerial Commission for Energy. While the body ceased to exist in 2012 due to lack of

34 In 2012, the government issued the Transitional Law on Toll which allowed the collection of AF1 from the price of each liter of imported fuel. 35 Asian Development Bank. 2014. Unstoppable: The Hairatan to Mazar-e-Sharif Railway Project Performance-Based Operation and Maintenance Contract. Manila. 36 The Civil Aviation Law passed in 2012 established the Afghanistan Civil Aviation Authority, an independent authority (reporting to the Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation) to manage civil aviation activities in the country.

15 financing, a second TA is currently being implemented and ensures capacity support beyond 2016.

56. An area to focus on within DABS is its internal audit system, as transparency in financial management remains a concern.37 Within the sector, the enactment of the electricity law by the Parliament would strengthen the regulatory side as it provides for the rationalization of tariffs and establishment of the electricity regulatory authority.

57. Agriculture and Natural Resources. Sector operations are likely sustainable, particularly for community-based projects. Local communities have adequate capacity to undertake O&M activities on small irrigation infrastructures. Farmers groups (producers) also have sufficient capacity to financially and operationally maintain their respective cooperatives. Community participation has ensured a high level of ownership. Institutional strengthening through the establishment of river basin authorities and development of master plans that set out directions and priorities in the river basins point to a likely sustainable implementation of IWRM. The Agriculture Sector Program had an important impact on key ministries and institutions in the sector and stimulated ongoing changes in institutional and organizational arrangements that are leading to more effective and efficient agencies. A conducive policy environment for environmental protection and agricultural development has also been established through ADB support.

58. Among the issues related to sustainability include (i) the lack of an equitable water allocation system; (ii) the need for water delivery service fees; (iii) lack of exit strategies for phasing out donor support; and (iv) the need to improve on the climate resilience of infrastructure (i.e., flooding destroyed some of the small irrigation facilities due to low quality construction).

59. Other sectors. Outcomes of ADB support in PSM and the finance sector are less than likely sustainable. While capacity constraints were aptly recognized in various PSM interventions, assessment of sector operations indicates the need for new approaches to capacity development (i.e., balance local absorptive capacity against the skills needed by government agencies to effectively implement reforms and improve retention of trained staff within their respective government institutions). Policy reforms initiated under the finance sector programs generated new implementation challenges and problems for which new capacity has to be developed. Sustainability therefore depends on continued assistance to (i) implement complementary reforms, and (ii) provide capacity development in the new institutions created. A stable political and security situation is also crucial.

60. Multisector sector operations are rated less than likely sustainable. While sustainability pertaining to policy reforms is likely sustainable, infrastructure-related operations require continued government and donor allocations for O&M in some sectors. Recent developments, however, point to positive indications of sustainability in energy and ANR components.

E. Development Impacts

61. ADB’s overall contribution to development impacts is assessed as less than satisfactory based on limited or inconclusive contributions to Afghanistan’s development results and

37 A series of independent audit reports could not obtain sufficient evidence to be able to provide an audit opinion to DABS financial reports 2009–2012. Back to Office Report for MFF 0026-Tranche 5 (Dashte Alwan 500kV substation) dated July 24, 2013.

16 inclusive growth, and only mixed results for cross-sector and thematic areas. However, the sector level impacts are notable, and completed projects across sectors have a 70% satisfactory rating (N=10).

62. ADB’s contribution to the country’s development results and inclusive growth. It is inconclusive whether ADB support contributed to the economic and social objectives of ANDS which are to reduce poverty, ensure sustainable development, improve human development indicators, and achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Economic growth during 2008/09– 2014 averaged 8.2% annually, only slightly higher than the average of 8.0% prior to the CPS from 2003/04 to 2007/08. While the growth rates during the CPS period can be considered relatively high, the CPS objective of attaining accelerated economic growth was not attained. However, there have been improvements in GDP per capita ($489.1 per capita in 2009–2010 and $753.4 in 2014) and higher average per capita consumption between 2007–2008 and 2011–2012.38 More importantly, a conclusion is made that economic growth during the CPS period was not inclusive, based on available indicators. At the national level, poverty data from the last two National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment household surveys show no improvement in the poverty headcount, but because of different methodologies the two survey’s results must be compared with caution (see Table 1). Hence, no conclusion can be reached about ADB’s contribution to poverty reduction at the national level. Regionally, the north, where most of ADB’s projects have been focused, experienced a decline in poverty from 39.4% in 2007–2008 to 31.7% in 2011–2012, indicating possible contributions of ADB to poverty reduction in that region.

Table 1: Afghanistan Poverty Headcount (%)

National Urban Rural 2007-2008 2011-2012 2007-2008 2011-2012 2007-2008 2011-2012 36.3 36.5 29.1 28.9 38.2 38.8 Source: Central Statistical Organization. 2014. National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 2011-2012.

63. Inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, worsened during the CPS period from 29.7 in 2007–2008 to 31.6 in 2011–2012, suggesting that growth has not been inclusive. Furthermore, labor indicators on employment to population ratio and labor force participation rates (for men and women) remained virtually unchanged from 2009 to 2013, thereby indicating that job creation (under ADB’s inclusive growth pillar 1) and access to jobs (inclusive growth pillar 2) did not improve.39 Indicators on access to education and health (also for pillar 2) did improve during the CPS period, but ADB had no direct initiatives in education that would have contributed to those improvements. Finally, only limited progress or contributions were made to inclusive growth pillar 3 on social protection. Some livelihood and employment training was provided to returning refugees and displaced persons, but otherwise ADB did not conduct any initiatives for improved social protection.

64. Cross-sector and themes under the CPS. The CPS 2009–2013 contained five themes (para. 6). The objectives of these themes are shown in Appendix 2. The five themes are assessed overall as less than satisfactory, as the achievements varied greatly among the themes. The theme of regional cooperation saw very good progress as key road and rail connections were made with neighboring countries; Afghanistan now receives vital supplies of

38 Improved consumption is shown in Central Statistical Organization. 2014. National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 2011-2012. Kabul. 39 Based on World Bank. 2015. World Development Indicators database.

17 electricity from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan; and some progress has been made on trade facilitation through the CAREC Customs Cooperation Committee, Time Release Study training, and Corridor Performance Measurement and Monitoring. On the other hand, the theme of counter-narcotics did not achieve its objective of mainstreaming counter-narcotics in the design and monitoring of programs and projects.40 Some progress was seen in the other three themes.41 For example, improved sector governance has been achieved in transport and energy, and some gains in foreign investment were made for private sector development.42 Only a few contributions to gender were realized on older projects (e.g., women beneficiaries in the wool and carpet value chain),43 but more recent projects are making greater contributions by including more women participants.44 In particular, in one project site (Bamyan) for the Enhanced Agricultural Value Chains for Sustainable Livelihoods project (45259-001), an estimated 70% of the agriculture workers are women in 2015. However, more impact could likely have been achieved if greater attention had been given to these three themes throughout the CPS period.

65. Sector level impacts. ADB’s contributions to development impacts at the sector level are rated satisfactory. In the transport sector, positive indications of impact-level socio-economic benefits are intermittently noted in completion reports, resulting in a satisfactory rating.45 These include strong prospects for intraregional and cross-border trade opened by transport corridors. However, until a lasting solution to the sustainability of attained outcomes is reached, the impacts of transport projects may decline in time. ADB’s transport initiatives are also generating local development impacts through the community-based development projects that accompany newer MFF tranches for the Ring Road.46 Villages around project sites are able to choose what type of small-scale infrastructure project they would like, such as sanitation infrastructure or community centers.

66. In energy, ADB’s contribution to sector impact is satisfactory. Continuing expansion and rehabilitation of transmission and distribution networks, construction of substations and development of a hydropower plant contributed to greater access to electricity (760,000 households and 15,000 new industrial and commercial users in Kabul), increased electricity consumption (from 21kWh per year in 2002 to 185kWh in 2015),47 and regional power trade (with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan). Recent signing of the power purchase sales agreement with Turkmenistan is expected to contribute to a further increase of 1,000 GWh of power imports.

67. In 2013, DABS reported 24-hour power supply access for more than 75% of the population in Kabul, Mazar-e Sharif, Kunduz and Pul-e Khumri to which ADB support has

40 The 2009 completion report of the Agriculture Sector Program claimed poppy cultivation was reduced as a result of removing restrictions in agriculture commodity markets. However, since 2009 cultivation has risen sharply, likely indicating that the Program had no effect on the drop in cultivation that occurred between 2007 and 2009. 41 If capacity development is included (see footnote 5), it is evident that extensive capacity building has featured in all three priority sectors, such as training for O&M, planning, project design, safeguards, financial management, procurement, and project management. Additionally, 30 officials from the Ministry of Energy and Water have been supported for master’s degrees in Thailand. 42 Asian Development Bank. 2006. Private Sector and Financial Market Development Program (37393) and Asian Development Bank. 2004. Afghanistan Investment Guarantee Facility (38912). 43 Asian Development Bank. 2006. Rural Business Support (40586). 44 Due to the successful participation of women and their performance under the project, ADB is considering standalone subprojects for the women in 2016. 45 To provide clearer measures of its contribution to sector development impacts, ADB needs to improve on monitoring and reporting of impact-level indicators. 46 This is a more recent approach by ADB in the latter tranches of the MFF Transport Network Development Investment Program (44482-012). 47 Figures provided by DABS in August 2015.

18 significantly contributed. However, recent reports have indicated scheduled blackouts (load shedding) as power supply could not keep up with the requirements of increasing grid connections. Ongoing projects are geared towards synchronizing power systems to satisfy not only Afghanistan’s increasing demand for energy but also to serve as energy transit to Pakistan.

68. Completed operations in the ANR sector point to a less than satisfactory rating given the limited effectiveness of outcomes and the inconclusive data about the impact of ADB support on poverty reduction. Impact on women in completed projects was limited, as most project designs were not explicit about gender mainstreaming, but ongoing projects such as the Agriculture Market Infrastructure Project are more explicit on the inclusion of women (including women's producer associations and having gender disaggregated targets) and should achieve positive impacts for women such as reduced poverty. Moreover, it is evident that even with the reductions of scope, some projects can generate high impact in terms of the magnitude of beneficiaries they reach (e.g., Rural Business Support Project).

69. Support to PSM had less than satisfactory development impact given the changing political, security, and socio-economic conditions in Afghanistan which may derail the limited achievements in the sector. ADB’s contribution to the finance sector’s development impact is rated less than satisfactory in view of the declining GDP growth rates after 2010, higher unemployment since 2005,48 but with the mobilization of $108.6 million in foreign direct investment and creation of 850 jobs.49 Multisector operations, assessed with satisfactory development impacts, have contributed to various institutional and policy reforms that have set the platform for subsequent actions of other development partners, decreased travel times, improved irrigation and incomes for thousands of people, the provision of uninterrupted electricity supply, enhanced regional and national linkages, and positive performances in GDP per capita, inflation rates, budget deficit, and social indicators.

70. Unintended and unplanned impacts. Few unintended and unplanned impacts are noted in the project completion documents, but those that are recorded are positive developments and therefore the rating is satisfactory. Among these are 225,000 new households in Kabul with electrical service, 15,000 new nondomestic (i.e., industrial and commercial) electricity users, improved IWRM framework, and greater awareness of security, communications, improvised explosive devices and mines, and first aid.50

F. Performance of Nonsovereign Operations

71. ADB’s nonsovereign operations are rated successful based primarily on the highly successful ratings for projects in telecommunications and banking (Appendix 8). ADB support to the Telecom Development Company of Afghanistan (Roshan) was vital in the development and expansion of Afghanistan’s mobile telecommunication sector and infrastructure. Roshan’s subscriber base grew from 158,000 in 2004 to 5 million in 2011 (covering 230 cities and towns across 34 provinces). Roshan also promoted innovative services such as mobile money transfer and payment system, and mobile agricultural trade data service (i.e., farmers, input suppliers, traders and wholesalers have access to commodity information in 13 provincial wholesale markets through text messaging).

48 Expected impacts in the Private Sector and Financial Market Development Program (37393-032) and Supporting Private Sector and Financial Market Reforms Capacity Building (37393-042). 49 Achievements from the Afghanistan Investment Guarantee Facility (38912-014). 50 Impacts from the following projects: Regional Power Transmission Interconnection (40043), Capacity Development for Irrigation and Water Resources (38252-012), and Security of ADB-Financed Projects in Afghanistan (37561- 012).

19

72. Support to Afghanistan International Bank (AIB) catalyzed the entry of more local and international financial institutions in the financial market, and it has become the country’s largest private bank. As of August 2015 ADB had received $8.2 million through divestment of its shareholding and $2.9 million through dividend payouts by AIB.

73. The nonsovereign political risk guarantee of the Afghanistan Investment Guarantee Facility (AIGF), as part of a crisis response that included a sovereign loan, was not utilized due to political and economic developments that were not foreseen at the time of approval.51 The nonsovereign development impact was evaluated as below expectations and the political risk guarantee did not lead to profitability or income for ADB. However, AIGF’s development contribution overall was evaluated as a success, and the nonsovereign component was given some credit for this success based on its contributions to setting up AIGF and at minimal expense.

74. No new private sector operations were initiated during the CPS period due to a number of reasons, including the change of government in 2014 whose uncertainty led to delays in many businesses making investment decisions. One project, Sungas LLC, was approved in 2010 but subsequently cancelled, although this was related to commercial reasons and not government or macro factors. Despite the lack of new deals being finalized, ADB’s Private Sector Operations Department engaged with numerous sponsors during the CPS period, demonstrating the potential for private sector deals in Afghanistan. There are viable projects in Afghanistan, but internal and external challenges (e.g., the quality of the enabling environment; investors expecting a risk premium from their investments; difficulty in integrating Afghanistan- based companies with international markets; and government endorsement obstacles) made it difficult to conclude deals.

G. ADB and Borrower Performance

75. Overall, ADB performance is assessed as satisfactory. ADB has aligned well with the government’s priorities and focused its operations on three core sectors to maximize effectiveness and reduce coordination issues for the government. Government ministries and development partners have confirmed the appropriateness of ADB’s strategic approach in transport, energy, and ANR, and they have recognized the role of ADB in prioritizing investments through its support in preparing sector road maps. For the most part, ADB has coordinated adequately with other development partners and attracted a significant amount of cofinancing, especially through AITF. During 2009 to mid-2015, ADB approved $375.36 million worth of projects with official cofinancing.52 Although ADB has mobilized cofinancing, the government expected AITF to have more contributors and higher levels of commitments, especially as other development partners started winding down operations to coincide with the withdrawal of international security forces. Another issue regarding AITF is some miscommunication to prospective contributors about the precise implementation guidelines during the initial years.

76. ADB has given attention to capacity building and strengthening government ownership as well as improving sector governance. ADB has also made progress in addressing contract management issues and been able to ensure adequate monitoring and supervision in difficult

51 Asian Development Bank. 2014. Extended Annual Review Report: Political Risk Guarantee. Afghanistan Investment Guarantee Facility. Manila. 52 For grants, it is 10 projects worth $368.86 million, and for TAs it is $6.5 million for 5 projects.

20 conditions (and to take decisive actions to improve project performance). ADB’s performance has been enhanced given the joint venture approach and delegation of more responsibility to the resident mission in Kabul.53 However, some projects reflected a less than satisfactory performance from ADB due to high staff turnover, the need for more frequent review missions (particularly for projects approved in 2003‒2005), and long delays in issuing no objections to project scope changes and approving contract variations.

77. Borrower performance has shown mixed results. Government capacities are gradually improving and resulting in better performance, including improved capacity for financial and project management, procurement, and the timely provision of administrative support. The National Procurement Authority established in 2014 is an important step forward and is making progress. The Capacity Building for Results initiative has similarly shown encouraging initial results. The government has also delivered a consistent message to ADB and other development partners about the country’s development agenda and priorities. Progress has been made on improving donor coordination, with the Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board, the Heads of Agencies Meeting, the Aid Policy Implementation Committee, and other mechanisms. On the other hand, the government’s occasional failure to finance counterpart requirements, a lack of strong ownership in certain ministries, ongoing capacity and governance concerns, a lack of security for some projects, and some inability to comply with project covenants contribute to a less than satisfactory rating.

78. A weakness of both ADB and government ministries is the lack of attention to results monitoring. This stems from the quality of designs at the onset and permeates during implementation when a monitoring system is not established and evaluation fails to fully capture measures of outcomes.

H. Overall Assessment

79. ADB operations during 2009 to mid-2015 are assessed as successful with relevant, effective, less than efficient, less than likely sustainable, and less than satisfactory development impacts ratings.54 The weighting methodology is explained in Appendix 9 and is based on the sector share of the portfolio. Due to rounding of the criteria scores, the overall weighted score is 1.64 (Table 2). The overall rating is successful on the borderline. A successful score in ADB’s rating system ranges between 1.60 and 2.49, with the successful on the borderline rating ranging between 1.60 and 1.75. This successful rating is considered to be a remarkable and significant achievement given the challenging environment (particularly security and human and institutional capacities) in Afghanistan in which operations take place. A comparison of the CPS final review ratings and CAPE ratings is found in Appendix 10.

53 Increasing the responsibility of Kabul resident mission was coupled with a 50% increase in staff complement from 2008 to 2014. 54 Given the small amount of nonsovereign operations during the review period, nonsovereign operations have been factored into the overall sector assessments.

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Table 2: Overall CPS and Sector Ratings

Development Relevance Effectiveness Efficiency Sustainability Impacts Overall Agriculture and Natural Resources 2 1 1 2 1 1.4 Energy 2 2 1 2 1 1.6 Transport 3 2 1 1 2 1.8 Finance 2 1 1 1 1 1.2 Multisector 2 1 2 1 2 1.6 Public Sector Management 2 1 1 1 1 1.2 Cross-Cutting Objectives 2 1 1.5 Weighted Score 2.47 1.76 1.08 1.36 1.54 1.64 Source: ADB staff.

IV. LESSONS

80. Project and sector experiences in Afghanistan highlight security, a focused country program, improvements in efficiency, and better results orientation as some of the important lessons in improving development effectiveness of ADB’s country program assistance. The following lessons are meant to supplement the earlier lessons identified in the Afghanistan Country Assistance Program Evaluation.55

81. Security issues and security risk management need to be more central in project design and implementation in conflict situations such as Afghanistan, even in areas of the country that are considered relatively secure. Experience in Afghanistan has shown that insufficient consideration of security conditions leads to delays that have resulted in the reduction of scope, extensive cost overruns, and in some cases cancellations of ADB support. Project design and implementation require more detailed and ongoing security assessments and risk management plans, taking into account local conditions at project sites. More appropriate assessment and more tailored mitigation measures are needed for each project rather than generic, one-size-fits-all security approaches. This would facilitate the readiness of ADB support in conflict-affected countries.

82. A focused program concentrated in a few sectors eases the burden on governments with limited capacities. Afghanistan’s capacity limitations are recognized, and the practice of having development partners limit the number of sectors they are involved in aids the government in donor coordination, preparing and implementing sector road maps, and to avoid overstretching the government’s human resource capacities. ADB’s experience in prioritizing only a few sectors also indicates that this concentration helps to generate deeper sector achievements. Furthermore, ADB’s on-budget assistance enhances government predictability of aid, increases ownership, and builds government financial management capacity.

83. Improving efficiency requires ensuring better quality at entry, strengthening capacities at startup, increasing supervision, and having realistic timeframes. Specifically, there is a need for technical designs consistent with expected project outcomes, sound capacity assessment of executing and implementing agencies, timeliness of actions to address recruitment and other administrative issues, and adequate review missions. Realistic

55 Asian Development Bank. 2012. Country Assistance Program Evaluation: Afghanistan. Manila.

22 implementation timeframes are crucial in avoiding cost overruns and time extensions. Given the fragile and conflict conditions in Afghanistan, imminent delays from security threats, limited government capacity, including procurement, and contractors’ willingness to bid and abilities to implement projects in insecure conditions need to be adequately factored into project implementation schedules.

84. Improved results frameworks and monitoring systems can strengthen the results orientation of ADB support. Difficulty in the monitoring and assessment of support were related to often poor quality results frameworks and the lack of established systems for tracking results, particularly outcomes and impact. When done well, these can help to better identify ADB’s contribution to development results and areas that ADB needs to improve on.

V. RECOMMENDATIONS

85. In preparing the next CPS, consideration should be given to the following:

A. Inclusive Economic Growth

86. Recommendation: ADB should focus on inclusive economic growth. Greater attention to inclusive economic growth is needed in the next CPS, as revealed in this CPS final review and in line with ADB’s Midterm Review of Strategy 2020.56 To this end, a number of recommendations are given to sharpen the focus on inclusive growth:

(i) Ensure greater local participation in planning. Current processes for project planning are centralized in the ministries in Kabul. More local level participation would strengthen local voices, increase the inclusiveness of ADB interventions, and better ensure more localized benefits. (ii) Ensure that project designs include explicit benefits for lower income groups.57 There is scope to include explicit benefits for lower income groups in ADB infrastructure projects, particularly in energy. ADB energy projects have focused on supplying grid electricity, but more components should be directed to connections for lower income households. Furthermore, off-grid initiatives should be included to provide benefits to rural populations that have grid electricity infrastructure passing through their villages but without accruing any of the benefits. In transport, ADB should continue with its recent practice of including community-based development in MFF tranches, whereby villages along the Ring Road project sites can select small-scale infrastructure projects in order to develop more community buy in and offer local benefits. (iii) Develop synergies with other development partners. Greater efforts should be made to develop synergies with other development partners’ initiatives to complement ADB infrastructure and address a greater totality of development needs in local communities. For example, ADB-financed roads could be planned in conjunction with other development partners’ education (schools) or health (health centers) interventions 58 so that explicit linkages are made across sectors in which ADB is not engaged, thereby generating greater inclusive growth impacts. Also, greater coordination between ADB and World Bank and USAID would be beneficial so that ADB’s Ring Road sections are linked with the feeder or local roads constructed by the latter two agencies.

56 Asian Development Bank. 2014. Midterm Review of Strategy 2020: Meeting the Challenges of a Transforming Asia and Pacific. Manila. 57 Drawn from Asian Development Bank. 2014. ADB Support for Inclusive Growth. Manila. 58 This example is cited in Asian Development Bank. 2014. ADB Support for Inclusive Growth. Manila.

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(iv) Achieve greater balance among the pillars of ADB’s inclusive economic growth strategic agenda. As noted earlier, most of ADB’s contributions to inclusive growth in Afghanistan have been in pillar 1 (economic opportunities, including jobs, created and expanded) because of the focus on infrastructure. ADB should strive in the next CPS to have more initiatives that would support pillar 2 (access to economic opportunities broadened) and pillar 3 (extreme deprivation prevented and vulnerability to risks reduced), as progress in all three pillars is needed to achieve inclusive economic growth.

B. Cross-Cutting Themes and Drivers of Change

87. Recommendation: Devote more attention to cross-cutting themes and drivers of change. Many of the ADB projects during the CPS period related to reconstruction of infrastructure that had been damaged by years of war. While this reconstruction was vital to Afghanistan’s resumption of economic growth, cross-cutting themes did not feature prominently in ADB’s efforts with the exception of regional cooperation and integration. The next CPS should strive to give more emphasis to cross-cutting themes and cross-sector linkages that would strengthen ADB’s development contributions and impact. Investment projects should include more components or activities that directly support cross-cutting themes and ADB’s drivers of change. Two areas in particular would be gender and environment and climate change.

C. Sector Selection

88. Recommendation: ADB and the government should continue to partner on transport, energy, and agriculture and natural resources sectors in the next CPS. The sector selection has been assessed as highly appropriate given the country’s priorities and needs and ADB’s core competencies. Furthermore, ADB’s value addition is significant in regional integration through transport and energy infrastructure support under the CAREC Program. Continuing assistance to the ANR sector can have a high and lasting impact on incomes and poverty reduction. As noted in lessons learned, focusing on a limited number of priority sectors has been beneficial and ADB should avoid spreading its resources across too many sectors.

D. Enabling Environment for Private Sector

89. Recommendation: Devote more efforts to developing an enabling environment to support prospective nonsovereign opportunities. Inclusive growth requires the creation of jobs, but these opportunities must emanate from the private sector. Private sector development will be needed to accomplish this. A better enabling environment for the private sector is vital to this process and should be given more attention by ADB in the next CPS. In particular, ADB should focus on working closely with the government to ensure delivery on agreements that are committed to, for example a Gas Sales and Purchase Agreement that would secure national fuel supplies for uninterrupted business operations in the manufacturing and independent power producer sectors, fair and predictable tax treatment for companies, impartial regulation of the private sector, and stronger titling systems for property and assets. These measures would enable ADB and other investors to make more significant contributions to private sector development, job creation, and sustainable, private sector-led economic growth. ADB’s nonsovereign operations for AIB and Roshan have shown that the right private sector projects in Afghanistan can have a high impact, but subsequent nonsovereign operations have not emerged because of a number of obstacles, including the enabling environment.

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E. Addressing Security Risks

90. Recommendation: Strengthen risk assessment and risk management approaches for ADB projects. As discussed in ADB’s operational plan for enhancing effectiveness in fragile and conflict-affected situations, risk management approaches need to be country specific.59 ADB needs an improved country-specific security framework in Afghanistan that provides, among others, better structures and processes on how security risk is assessed and managed at the various phases of the project cycle. Security costs can be as high as 35% of overall project costs in Afghanistan, yet numerous delays and cost overruns are occurring due to security issues. ADB’s approach to security for projects in Afghanistan can be strengthened by:

(i) Training for ADB project officers and counterpart government officials. Training should be provided to all project officers on assessing and managing security risks in order to strengthen security risk management in project preparation and implementation. (ii) Require security assessments, security plans, and risk mitigation for all projects. Even in “secure” areas of Afghanistan, all projects should have a security assessment and a detailed security plan that is tailored to the specific project and location. (iii) Greater role for the Resident Mission’s Security Unit in project security matters. The Afghanistan Resident Mission’s Security Unit should be more integrated into project design and implementation to ensure that appropriate security measures are planned and implemented, quality assurance is given to proposed security measures, and to verify that what ADB is paying for (security services and assets) is actually being implemented on the ground. Key roles performed by the Security Unit could entail: (a) conducting initial risk assessments for proposed projects; (b) reviewing bid proposals’ security components and costs; (c) review security-related contract variation requests and advise ADB project officers; and (d) participate in monitoring of security measures taken during project implementation. (iv) Apply conflict-sensitive approaches to ADB’s operations. Afghanistan is classified by ADB as a fragile and conflict-affected situation (FCAS), and the current security and political conditions give rise to great uncertainty in the future. In many instances, however, project design and implementation in Afghanistan have been conducted in a “business as usual” manner ill-suited to the country’s FCAS conditions. ADB should be more diligent in applying FCAS approaches because of the security conditions, weak institutions and governance, and other causes of fragility. In particular, ADB could (a) ensure that conflict-sensitivity is used throughout the entire project cycle; (b) thorough risk assessments and mitigation strategies are prepared for each project up front, including an examination of internal and external factors underlying fragility and the drivers of conflict; (c) that local conditions related to potential or actual conflict in a project area are clearly understood by ADB staff, government officials, and project management units; (d) ensure close collaboration with civil society; and (e) apply appropriate flexibilities allowed under ADB’s FCAS approaches to project appraisal requirements, project processing, procurement, and disbursement.

F. Enhance Monitoring and Reporting of Outcomes and Impacts

91. Recommendation: Enhance results orientation and measurement, and strengthen results tracking and reporting. ADB operations have been adequate in monitoring outputs but need to vastly improve the system of tracking outcomes and impacts. In some cases, even with

59 Asian Development Bank. 2013. Operational Plan for Enhancing ADB’s Effectiveness in Fragile and Conflict- affected Situations. Manila.

25 the budgeting of monitoring and evaluation specialists, measures of the targeted indicators are not included in progress reports and final reports. ADB and the government need to improve on the following at the country, sector, and project level: ensuring the appropriateness of a hierarchy of results, consistency of outcome and impact statements and indicators, availability of baseline information, and a clear implementation arrangement for monitoring and reporting ongoing results.60 Additional attention also needs to be placed on monitoring local benefits generated by ADB projects, such as the number of local people hired at project construction sites, and monitoring of inclusive growth aspects in infrastructure projects.

G. Discontinue Use of Design-Build Contracts

92. Recommendation: The use of design-build contracts should be discontinued by ADB. As noted in paragraph 20, the expected benefits of design-build contracts have generally not been realized and, in fact, their use has been problematic in terms of potential conflicts of interest by the winning contractors, extensive cost overruns, and forgone capacity development of ministries. Instead, the design-build approach should be replaced by the traditional civil works procurement method of design-bid-build, whereby engineering and design specifications are handled by the relevant ministries, and prospective contractors then prepare their tender documents based on these details. The traditional procurement approach of developing the design before tendering will provide the government and ADB more certainty about design quality and cost.

60 In discussions with government ministries it was revealed that some project management offices (PMOs) thought it was ADB’s responsibility to track results despite this task being assigned to the PMO in the project documents.

26 Appendix 1

ADB LOANS, GRANTS, AND TAs ACTIVE DURING 2009 TO MID-2015

Project Loan/ Project Name Fund Amount Date Date No. Grant/ Type ($ million) Approved Closed TA No. Original Revised Agriculture and Natural Resources 38096 9060 Balkh River Basin Water Resources JFPR 10.0 10.0 15-Dec-04 10-Jul-12 Management 39370 0126 Agriculture Market Infrastructure Project ADF grant 30.0 30.0 21-Nov-08 Active (formerly Commercial Agriculture Development Project) 40586 9100 Rural Business Support JFPR 18.0 18.0 12-Dec-06 30-Aug-13 36222-012 9039 Rural Recovery through Community-Based JFPR 5.0 5.0 26-Dec-03 12-Apr-12 Irrigation Rehabilitation 36252-013 0033 Western Basins Water Resources ADF grant 14.5 14.5 20-Dec-05 Active Management 36252-013 2227 Western Basins Water Resources ADF loan 60.5 51.05 20-Dec-05 Active Management 36252-013 0052 Western Basins Water Resources Canada 13.2 8.35 25-Aug-06 Active Management grant 37046-013 2083 Agriculture Sector Program ADF loan 55.0 55.6 04-May-04 16-Apr-14 37713-012 9038 Integrated Community Development in JFPR 3.0 3.0 26-Dec-03 05-Mar-13 Northern Afghanistan 38221-012 4483 Capacity Building for Land Policy and TASF/UK 0.8 0.8 15-Dec-04 31-Jan-09 Administration Reform 38252-012 4716 Capacity Development for Irrigation and TASF 0.755 0.755 07-Dec-05 18-Jun-09 Water Resources 4209101 7088 Water Resources Development JSF 1.8 1.8 10-Jun-08 31-Aug-10 36222-013 9165 Community-Based Irrigation Rehabilitation JFPR 10.0 10.0 06-Jul-12 Active and Development 42091-032 0167 Water Resources Development Investment ADF grant 86.6 86.6 06-Oct-09 Active Program - Tranche 1 42091-032 0170 Water Resources Development Investment UK grant 3.3 3.3 06-Oct-09 Active Program - Tranche 1 42091-043 0362 Water Resources Development Investment ADF grant 100.0 100.0 08-Oct-13 Active Program - Tranche 2 45259-001 9167 Enhanced Agricultural Value Chains for JFPR 18.5 18.5 19-Sep-12 Active Sustainable Livelihoods 48326-001 0411 Northern Flood-Damaged Infrastructure ADF grant 40.0 40.0 16-Oct-14 Active Emergency Rehabilitation Project 48326-001 0412 Northern Flood-Damaged Infrastructure AITF 16.6 16.6 16-Oct-14 Active Emergency Rehabilitation Project 44411-022 7994 Supporting Natural Resources Operations WFPF 1.5 1.5 14-Dec-11 Active

Appendix 1 27

Project Loan/ Project Name Fund Amount Date Date No. Grant/ Type ($ million) Approved Closed TA No. Original Revised Energy 40043 2304 Regional Power Transmission ADF loan 35.0 35.0 19-Dec-06 05-Mar-14 Interconnection (Regional) 37078-013 0004 Power Transmission and Distribution ADF grant 23.5 22.8 14-Apr-05 31-Jul-14 Project 37078-013 2165 Power Transmission and Distribution ADF loan 26.5 25.7 14-Ape-05 31-Jul-14 Project 42094-022 0134 Energy Sector Development Investment ADF grant 164.0 164.0 02-Dec-08 Active Program - Tranche 1 42094-062 9128 Development of Mini Hydropower Plants JFPR 12.0 12.0 28-Nov-08 30-Oct-14 in Badakhshan and Bamyan Provinces 40622 4909 Improving Capacity of Da Afghanistan TASF 1.2 1.2 19-Dec-06 25-May-10 Breshna Moassessa 39402-012 4918 Support to the Interministerial TASF 2.0 2.0 31-Jan-07 31-Dec-09 Commission for Energy 42472-012 7168 Development of Wind Energy TASF 0.16 0.16 06-Nov-08 31-May-10 40043-013 0230 Regional Power Transmission ADF grant 12.0 12.0 18-Nov-10 29-Oct-13 Interconnection 42094-032 0184 MFF - Energy Sector Development ADF grant 81.5 81.5 03-Dec-09 Active Investment Program - Tranche 2 42094-042 0280 Energy Sector Development Investment ADF grant 43.0 43.0 22-Dec-11 Active Program - Tranche 3 42094-042 0281 Energy Sector Development Investment UK 20.0 20.0 22-Dec-11 Active Program - Tranche 3 42094-042 0282 Energy Sector Development Investment Denmark 12.4 12.4 22-Dec-11 Active Program - Tranche 3 42094-052 0332 Energy Sector Development Investment ADF grant 200.0 200.0 18-Dec-12 Active Program - Tranche 4 42094-075 0377 Energy Sector Development Investment ADF grant 49.1 49.1 04-Dec-13 Active Program - Tranche 5 46392-001 0374 North-South Power Transmission ADF grant 99.0 99.0 25-Nov-13 Active Enhancement Project (formerly Power Distribution Project) 46392-001 0375 North-South Power Transmission AITF 117.0 117.0 25-Nov-13 Active Enhancement Project (formerly Power Distribution Project) 42094-072 7289 Kabul Distribution Network Rehabilitation TASF 0.225 0.225 27-May-09 25-Feb-10 43497-012 7637 Power Sector Master Plan JFPR 1.5 1.5 06-Nov-10 31-Jan-14 46347 8328 Supporting the Inter-Ministerial AITF 1.5 1.5 22-Feb-13 Active Commission for Energy 47018-001 8401 Gas Development Master Plan TASF and 1.5 1.5 11-Jul-13 Active AITF 43497-013 8475 Addendum to the Afghanistan Power TASF 0.225 0.225 04-Oct-13 28-Feb-15 Sector Master Plan 47282-002 8509 Energy Development 2014-2023 TASF 1.5 1.5 19-Nov-13 Active 47266 8508 Renewable Energy Development CEF 1.0 1.0 12-Dec-14 Active

28 Appendix 1

Project Loan/ Project Name Fund Amount Date Date No. Grant/ Type ($ million) Approved Closed TA No. Original Revised Finance 37393-032 0067 Private Sector and Financial Market ADF grant 56.0 56.0 14-Dec-06 13-Apr-09 Development Program 37393-042 0068 Supporting Private Sector and Financial ADF grant 4.0 4.0 14-Dec-06 28-Jan-11 Market Reforms Capacity Building 38912-014 2091 Afghanistan Investment Guarantee ADF loan 5.0 5.0 24-Sep-04 28-Sep-10 Facility 44457-012 7983 Rural Finance Expansion TASF 1.5 1.5 14-Dec-11 30-Jun-15 Health 36628 9030 Primary Health Care Partnership for the JFPR 3.0 3.0 19-Dec-02 20-Nov-11 Poor (formerly Piloting Health Care Partnership) Industry and Trade 39571-012 4699 Building the Capacity of the Ministry of TASF 0.4 0.4 24-Nov-05 31-Jan-09 Commerce for Trade and Transit Facilitation 40577-012 4906 Capacity Building for Customs and Trade TASF 1.2 1.2 18-Dec-06 13-May-09 Facilitation Multisector 36231-013 1954 Postconflict Multisector Program ADF loan 173.5 171.2 04-Dec-02 01-Oct-12

36673-013 1997 Emergency Infrastructure Rehabilitation ADF loan 150.0 142.6 03-Jun-03 01-Jul-13 and Reconstruction 37102-012 4415 Kabul Air Quality Management Denmark 0.45 0.45 15-Oct-04 31-Jul-09 47263-001 8470 Support for Infrastructure Investments TASF 1.2 1.2 01-Oct-13 Active and Policy 47263-001 8470 Support for Infrastructure Investments TASF 0.75 0.75 25-Mar-14 Active and Policy (Supplementary) Private Sector 38912-014 7201 Afghanistan Investment Guarantee Guarantee 10.0 10.0 24-Sep-04 Cancelled Facility 42919 7281/ Telecom Development Company of OCR 60.0 60.0 29-Jul-08 28-Feb-10 2431 Afghanistan (Roshan) 37903-014 7199 Afghanistan International Bank Equity 2.6 2.6 13-May-04 Active Facility 40921-014 7307 Sungas LLC Equity 8.0 8.0 25-Mar-10 Cancelled Facility Public Sector Management 38122-013 0030 Fiscal Management and Public ADF grant 7.0 7.0 14-Dec-05 31-Dec-10 Administration Reform Program (formerly Public Service Delivery Reform Program) 38122-013 2215 Fiscal Management and Public ADF loan 48.0 48.0 14-Dec-05 Active Administration Reform Program (formerly Public Service Delivery Reform Program) 37047-012 4313 Poverty Assessment and Socioeconomic TASF 1.75 1.75 26-Dec-03 31-Oct-12 and Macroeconomic Statistical Capacity Building 37561-012 4345 Security of ADB-Financed Projects in TASF 0.99 0.99 01-Jun-04 31-May-12 Afghanistan 40580-012 4897 Support to the Afghanistan National TASF and 2.7 2.7 14-Dec-06 28-Sep-12 Development Strategy GCF 40280 4964 Support for Economic Policy TASF and 2.5 2.5 04-Sep-07 Active Management (formerly Capacity Building cofinancing for Ministry of Finance) 40280 4964 Support for Economic Policy TASF and 0.225 0.225 15-Apr-14 Active Management (formerly Capacity Building cofinancing for Ministry of Finance) [Supplementary]

Appendix 1 29

Project Loan/ Project Name Fund Amount Date Date No. Grant/ Type ($ million) Approved Closed TA No. Original Revised 42089-012 7090 Security Plan for Project Implementation TASF 0.995 0.995 25-Jun08 17-Dec-14 42089-012 7090 Security Plan for Project Implementation TASF 0.225 0.225 16-Sep-10 17-Dec-14 (Supplementary) 42089-012 7090 Security Plan for Project Implementation TASF 0.75 0.75 02-May-12 17-Dec-14 (Supplementary) Transport 36553 9024 Road Employment Project for Settlement JFPR 15.0 15.0 03-Oct-02 16-Nov-09 and Integration of Returning Refugees and Displaced Persons 36553 9024 Road Employment Project for Settlement Kuwait 15.0 15.0 03-Oct-02 16-Nov-09 and Integration of Returning Refugees and Displaced Persons (Supplementary) 36587-032 0076 Road Employment Project for Settlement Canada 12.8 12.8 28-Mar-07 30-Jun-11 and Integration of Returning Refugees and Displaced Persons (Supplementary) 37075-013 2140 Andkhoy-Qaisar Road ADF loan 80.0 66.7 15-Dec-04 30-Jun-14 37075-022 0012 Qaisar-Bala Murghab Road ADF grant 55.0 55.0 12-Jul-05 Active 37136-013 2105 Regional Airports Rehabilitation Project ADF loan 30.0 27.0 23-Nov-04 18-Dec-14 Phase 1 37728-012 9037 Emergency Road Rehabilitation JFPR 20.0 20.0 19-Dec-03 29-Apr-11 39467-013 9097 North-South Corridor Project JFPR 20.0 20.0 26-Sep-06 25-Jun-10 39467-013 0054 North-South Corridor Project ADF grant 40.0 40.0 26-Sep-06 19-Aug-13 39467-013 2257 North-South Corridor Project ADF loan 78.2 78.2 26-Sep-06 Active 40333-022 0081 Road Network Development Project I ADF grant 176.0 176.0 28-Sep-07 Active (Bala Murghab to Leman) 42095-022 0135 MFF - Road Network Development ADF grant 60.0 60.0 02-Dec-08 04-Sep-13 Investment Program, Tranche 1 37083-012 4675 Capacity Building for Road Sector TASF 1.0 1.0 31-Oct-05 30-Apr-10 Institutions 37326-012 4828 Road Rehabilitation and Capacity TASF 2.7 2.7 21-Aug-06 31-Mar-09 Building Cluster 42095-032 0244 Road Network Development Investment ADF grant 340.0 310.0 21-Dec-10 Active Program, Tranche 2 42095-032 0291 Road Network Development Investment AITF 30.0 30.0 29-May-12 25-Sep-13 Program, Tranche 2 42533-022 0161 Hairatan to Mazar-e-Sharif Railway ADF grant 165.0 165.0 30-Sep-09 05-Apr-13 44482-022 0261 Transport Network Development ADF grant 189.0 189.0 12-Oct-11 Active Investment Program - Tranche 1 44482-022 0262 Transport Network Development AITF 33.0 33.0 12-Oct-11 Active Investment Program - Tranche 1 44482-023 0327 Transport Network Development ADF grant 176.0 149.0 10-Dec-12 Active Investment Program - Tranche 2 44482-023 0328 Transport Network Development AITF 60.0 87.0 10-Dec-12 Active Investment Program - Tranche 2 44482-024 0355 Transport Network Development ADF grant 220.0 220.0 11-Sep-13 Active Investment Program - Tranche 3 44482-025 0422 Transport Network Development ADF grant 109.0 109.0 15-Dec-14 Active Investment Program - 4 44482-025 0423 Transport Network Development EU 21.0 21.0 15-Dec-14 Active Investment Program - 4 42533-012 7259 Railway Development Study TASF 1.9 1.9 27-Mar-09 12-Aug-11 44482-029 8069 MFF for Transport Network Development TASF 0.225 0.225 02-Apr-12 15-Jan-13 Investment Program, Tranche 2 47210-001 8687 Transport Sector Master Plan Update TASF 1.0 1.0 22-Jul-14 Active ADF = Asian Development Fund, AITF = Afghanistan Infrastructure Trust Fund, EU = European Union, GCF = Green Climate Fund, JFPR = Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction, JSF = Japan Special Fund, CEF = Clean Energy Fund, TASF = Technical Assistance Special Fund, OCR = ordinary capital resources, UK = United Kingdom, WFPF = Water Financing Partnership Facility.

30 Appendix 2

AFGHANISTAN COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY 2009–2013: OBJECTIVES AND EXPECTED OUTCOMES

Overall CPS objective:

Accelerated economic growth and poverty reduction.

Sector level objectives (expected outcomes) and links to CPS objectives:

Agriculture: Improved food self-sufficiency and increased agriculture exports.

Energy: Improved access to affordable and reliable energy to most households.

Transport: Improved low cost, reliable transport connectivity for goods and people within Afghanistan and cross-border.

Objectives (expected outcomes) related to themes:

Counter-narcotics: Counter-narcotics effectively mainstreamed in the design and monitoring of programs/projects.

Gender and development: Women and men experienced equal benefits from ADB interventions including access to public service delivery.

Governance: Improved efficiency and accountability in public investment and expenditure.

Private sector development: Increased private sector investments, improved business enabling environment, and increased subregional trade.

Regional cooperation: Improved cross border connectivity infrastructure; harmonization of standards and regulations and customs cooperation; and increased subregional and transit trade.

Appendix 3 31

CONSISTENCY OF COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY AND AFGHANISTAN NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OBJECTIVES AND PRIORITIES

Country Partnership Strategy Afghanistan National Development Strategy

Objective Objective Accelerated economic growth and poverty reduction. Economic and social development (Pillar 3): Reduce poverty, ensure sustainable development through a private-sector-led market economy, improve human development indicators, and make significant progress towards the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Sectoral focus Priorities Energy Energy Power generation, transmission, and distribution; Implementation of key power infrastructure projects; development of indigenous energy resources such energy sector governance; legal reform and as micro-, small, and medium-sized hydropower; regulatory standards; expanded public power grid; and regional trade in energy. increased access to rural energy services (mini- hydro and solar, among others); increased regional

cooperation and trade in energy products. Transport and communications Transport Rehabilitation and construction of national roads and Regional, national highways and provincial roads; railways, including links to neighboring countries. rural roads; urban transport; civil aviation; transport sector maintenance; public transport; and railway program. Agriculture and natural resources Agriculture and rural development Irrigation and water resource management and agriculture market infrastructure. National food security, national area based development, horticulture, livestock, national rural access, rural water supply and sanitation, irrigation, Private sector operations national resources, national surveillance system, rural electrification program, rural enterprise Banking, telecommunications, energy, and mining program, research and extension system, sectors. emergency response system, and capacity building programs; geographic priorities for commercial Enabling environment for a vigorous private sector. agriculture through Agriculture and Rural Strategic investments that catalyze additional private Development Zones. sector investment. Thematic areas included local governance, agricultural production, agricultural and rural infrastructure, economic regeneration, and disaster and emergency preparedness. Water and irrigation Effective integrated water resources management; institution building and capacity development program; national water resources development program; and irrigation rehabilitation program. Private sector development Strengthening the enabling environment; expand opportunities for private investment in infrastructure and natural resources development; concerted private sector investment promotion.

32 Appendix 3

Country Partnership Strategy Afghanistan National Development Strategy

Thematic focus Cross-cutting issues Counter-narcotics Counter-narcotics Increase access to markets and provide income- Strengthen and diversify legal rural livelihoods (e.g., generating opportunities. alternative livelihood opportunities in districts where poppy is grown). Capacity development Capacity building Efforts focus on priority sectors. Build on regional human resource capacity; develop Substantive medium-term advisory technical skills needed to effectively implement programs and assistance (TA), with a focus on capacity projects. development (including mobilizing support for long- term training), to be included in all ADB-financed Gender equality projects. Gender equality in employment, promotion, policy Sustained TA support is required to (a) substitute for making and budgetary allocations; improvement in the lack of skilled staff in ministries, (b) compensate women’s status (e.g., literacy, enrollment, wages, for institutional weaknesses and human capacity etc.); and social acceptance of gender equality. gaps during planning and implementation, and (c) Anti-corruption provide longer-term capacity development support. Gender Enhance government anti-corruption commitment and leadership; raise awareness of corruption and Mainstream gender in its activities by identifying evaluating the effectiveness of anticorruption suitable entry-points. measures; mainstream anticorruption into government reforms and national development; and Targeted gender TA support to promote gender in strengthen the legal framework for fighting key sectors (and related agencies) or for other corruption and building an institutional capacity for activities that add a gender dimension to other ADB- effective implementation of the United Nations supported activities. Convention Against Corruption. Governance (including anticorruption activities) Governance Better public expenditure planning, management, Policy framework covers national assembly and accountability as key elements in sector support empowerment, public administration reform, anti- and contribute to improved portfolio management corruption measures, land administration, and project implementation. governance administration, effective system of Systems to reduce opportunities for corruption disaster preparedness and response. through corruption risk management plans in key Environmental management sectors of engagement. Community-based natural resource management, Regional cooperation prevention and/or abatement of pollution; Focus on activities supported through the Central environmental management, education and Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) awareness; and accounting of environmental costs Program. of proposed programs or projects. Scope for regional cooperation interventions to be Regional cooperation assessed in planning support to selected sectors of Increase access to power; generate revenues engagement. through transit trade; reduce impediments to trade and expand both import and export opportunities; increase investment and contribute to improved employment and business opportunities; facilitate the free flow of goods, services, and technology; allow the costs or benefits of development of common resources to be shared; reduce regional tensions and facilitate regional efforts to reduce cross border crime and terrorism; and facilitate the voluntary return of refugees. Sources: Asian Development Bank. 2008. Country Partnership Strategy: Afghanistan, 2009-2013. Manila. Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. 2008. Afghanistan National Development Strategy 1387–1391 (2008–2013): A Strategy for Security, Governance, Economic Growth & Poverty Reduction. Kabul.

Appendix 4 33

PERFORMANCE RATINGS OF COMPLETED SOVEREIGN PROJECTS, 2009 TO MID-2015

Table A4.1: Relevance Not Sector HR/R LR/I Total HR/R% Rated Agriculture and Natural 5 1 1 7 83% Resources Energy 3 0 0 3 100% Transport 9 0 0 9 100% Finance 2 0 0 2 100% Multisector 3 0 0 3 100% Public Sector Management 3 0 1 4 100% 25 1 2 28 96% HR=highly relevant, R=relevant, LR=less than relevant, I=irrelevant

Table A4.2: Effectiveness Not Sector HE/E LE/I Total HE/E% Rated Agriculture and Natural 1 4 2 7 20% Resources Energy 2 1 0 3 67% Transport 7 1 1 9 88% Finance 1 1 0 2 50% Multisector 1 1 1 3 50% Public Sector Management 1 2 1 4 33% Total 13 10 5 28 57% HE=highly effective, E=effective, LE=less than effective, I=ineffective

Table A4.3: Efficiency Not Sector HE/E LE/I Total HE/E% Rated Agriculture and Natural 1 4 2 7 20% Resources Energy 1 0 2 3 100% Transport 2 4 3 9 33% Finance 1 1 0 2 50% Multisector 1 0 2 3 100% Public Sector Management 0 1 3 4 0% Total 6 10 12 28 38% HE=highly efficient, E=efficient, LE=less than efficient, I=inefficient

34 Appendix 4

Table A4.4: Sustainability Not Sector MS/S LS/US Total MS/S% Rated Agriculture and Natural 4 1 2 7 80% Resources Energy 0 1 2 3 0% Transport 3 4 3 10a 43% Finance 0 2 0 2 0% Multisector 1 1 1 3 50% Public Sector Management 0 1 3 4 0% Total 8 10 11 29 44% MS=most likely sustainable, S=likely sustainable, LS=less than likely sustainable, US=unlikely sustainable a One transport project provided two sustainability ratings (Loan 2140, Andkhoy- Qaisar Road Project).

Table A4.5: Development Impacts Not Sector HS/S LS/U Total % Rated Agriculture and Natural 1 3 3 7 25% Resources Energy 1 0 2 3 100% Transport 5 0 4 9 100% Finance 0 0 2 2 0% Multisector 0 0 3 3 0% Public Sector Management 0 0 4 4 0% Total 7 3 18 28 73%

HS=high satisfactory, S=satisfactory, LS=less than satisfactory, U=unsatisfactory

35 Appendix 5

PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT OF PHYSICALLY COMPLETED PROJECTS AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, 2009 TO MID-2015

Table A5.1: Project Performance: Relevance Rating Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth (Loan/Grant Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations Rating integration in design No.) Sector: Energy

40043 Regional Power Relevant Power supply and demand issues in Design was appropriate and None. At design, the local villagers were (L2304/G0230/ Transmission both Afghanistan and Tajikistan led to responsive to the country's to serve as guarantors for the TA4909) Interconnection a mutually and economically beneficial development issues. security of the line; however, PCR approach in resolving their power did not report on this. issues. Variations during implementation appropriate and ensured project Design included component for remained relevant even after demining and costs for security implementation. during construction. During construction, the contractors and government provided services related to security. 43497 Power Sector Master Relevant Energy sector has consistently been a Design adequate and TA financing None. None. (TA 7637/8475) Plan/ Addendum priority in the national development sufficient for desired outcome. to the Power Sector plan. An updated power master plan Master Plan was meant to facilitate strategic No major changes made during prioritization of the required implementation. infrastructure to achieve energy Design had adequate flexibility to security. meet requests from Afghanistan. 39402 Support to the Relevant Interministerial Commission for Energy Impact statement and indicators None None (TA 4918) Interministerial is a key point of contact for energy were not appropriate for the level of Commission for reform—providing accurate TA intervention. Impact statement Energy information, facilitating market and indicators were too optimistic relationships, coordinating energy given TA scope. project development, and building regional linkages. Not identified as an issue at the onset, constraints in data availability proved to be a challenge which affected delivery of results. Sector: Transport

36553 Road Employment Relevant Project assisted government in Project design relevant and Yes. Livelihood and Identified security as a concern (J9024/G0076) Project for Settlement reintegrating, settling, and providing appropriate in achieving the employment opportunities but JFPR relied heavily on and Integration of livelihood and employment development objectives of poverty provided to returning government and UN agencies to Returning Refugees opportunities for returning refugees reduction through beneficiaries' refugees/displaced persons. provide security to the project. and Displaced and displaced persons. engagement in road construction Insufficient mitigating measures Persons activities, complemented with a or contingency were identified or comprehensive package for implemented, e.g., conflict developing labor skills and improving situation not fully factored in educational and health services in project implementation schedule. targeted communities. No explicit budget allocation for mitigating security-related issues noted in JFPR. 37075-013 Andkhoy-Qaisar Highly Project was consistent and aligned Design benefited from PPTA that Yes. Primary beneficiaries, Recognized that political and (L2140) Road relevant with government’s 2002 National provided a feasibility study of the estimated at about 800,000 security situation were volatile. Development Framework and later project road. Implementation period and mostly engaged in Several mitigation measures were ANDS, and ADB’s CSPU 2004-2006. of 36 months proved to be agriculture, 50% live under the identified. A more comprehensive 36 Appendix 5

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth (Loan/Grant Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations Rating integration in design No.) unrealistic. Toll road concept was poverty line. assessment of the situation could abandoned, and given the state of have identified other issues and security in Afghanistan, should not corresponding mitigating have been included in the design. measures. No explicit budget During implementation, civil works allocation for mitigating security- design was changed to improve related issues noted in RRP. safety features. 37136-013 Regional Airports Relevant Project promoted the integration of Project design weak; insufficient None. Discussed indirect Political and volatility of security (L2105) Rehabilitation Project remote regions and facilitated more measures to mitigate identified risks benefits to regional and local situation were recognized and Phase 1 rapid economic growth in those areas; which contributed to major change in communities from promoting discussed in the design. responds to the ANDS vision. scope of a component. tourism; direct benefits to poor Mitigating measures insufficient. households in terms of No explicit budget allocation for employment during mitigating security-related issues construction of airports only. noted in RRP. 37728-012 Emergency Road Relevant Project helped the government restore Design was inadequate, resulted in Yes. Road rehabilitation was Conflict situation and political (J9037) Rehabilitation the primary road transport network in cost overrun of $28 million. No price expected to increase access to instability were recognized in the northern Afghanistan. escalation clause in the contract that social services and increase design but insufficient mitigation prolonged negotiations on the income to rural poor in the measures identified and Project was consistent with: (i) increase in contract price. area. implemented. No explicit budget Afghanistan's National Development allocation for mitigating security- Framework and Budget; (ii) ADB’s related issues noted in the RRP. CSPU for Afghanistan, 2003-2005; (iii) ADB’s policy on rehabilitation assistance of 1989; and (iv) Japan's Regional Comprehensive Development Assistance to Afghanistan (The Ogata Initiative of 2002).. 39467-013 North-South Corridor Highly Project was consistent with Some project goal, outcome, and Yes. Project was expected to Government committed to exert (L2257/G0054/ Project relevant Government’s overarching objective of output indicators were not clearly lead both direct and indirect best effort to provide adequate G0135/J9097) ensuring economic growth by defined in the initial project design poverty reduction impacts. security for the smooth and rebuilding and rehabilitating the and monitoring framework. Since the project connected uninterrupted implementation of country’s national roads, i.e., aligned most of the main agricultural the project. Although identified as with ANDS and with ADB’s CSPU regions to Kabul, the project a risk, adequate security was not 2004-2006. goal of promoting economic provided during implementation. and social development and Serious security challenges reducing poverty is likely to be delayed project implementation. reached. Security issues were eventually resolved by the government and ADB through additional security arrangements. No explicit budget allocation for mitigating security- related issues noted in RRP. PCR noted as a lesson that extensive security measures should be planned and budgeted from the start. 42533-022 Hairatan to Mazar-e- Highly Project was consistent with the Project was designed to address Yes. Project was located in Security was identified as a major (G0161) Sharif Railway relevant government’s objectives and policies Afghanistan's incomplete and Balkh Province and the main risk to the project. Government

Appendix 5 37

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth (Loan/Grant Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations Rating integration in design No.) for developing the transport sector, as inadequate transport network which beneficiaries are local planned strong measures and set out in ANDS and CPS 2009-2013. constrains socio-economic companies, local arrangements to mitigate the development. The development of communities, shippers, and risks. A budgetary provision for the rail infrastructure was a logical freight forwarders, including security arrangements was step after the road network was women. Railways generate included in the project's improved. social benefits and will likely contingency budget. attract considerable economic activity into the area, thus generating job opportunities, including for women. 42533-012 Railway Development Relevant TA was requested by the government TA was appropriately designed to None. Inclusive growth not Deteriorating security situation in (TA7259) Study to study the development of a railway support the government in directly discussed but study the project area was duly noted in system in the northern part of the developing the railway network to had implications on transport the DMF. Insufficient discussion country. supplement Afghanistan’s road infrastructure that will on mitigating measures. network. eventually benefit the poor. Allocation for armored vehicles TA was closely linked to ADB’s CPS with anti-explosives noted in the 2009-2013 and supported the TA budget. government in developing the railway network to supplement Afghanistan’s road network. 37083-012 Capacity Building for Relevant TA was requested by the Government At the request of the Government, None. Not discussed in the Not discussed in the TAR or DMF. (TA4675) Road Sector to further strengthen the MPW’s the scope of the TA was revised to TAR. Cost estimates in the TAR include Institutions capacity in its core functions. include capacity building of MPW a budget for security assurance. staff in financial management and TA was included in CSPU 2004–2006. technical audit of road construction. 37326-012 Road Rehabilitation Highly TA was requested by the Government TA outputs were too ambitious and None. Not directly discussed DMF identified the possible effect (TA4828) and Capacity Building relevant to (i) prepare national highway the TA implementation period was in TAR and TCR, but study of poor security to mobilizing Cluster rehabilitation projects, (ii) strengthen too short. has implications on transport feasibility consultants in project MPW’s capacity to carry out its core infrastructure that was sites. No mitigating measures functions; and (iii) restructure MOT expected to eventually benefit discussed in the TAR. Cost and strengthen its capability and role the poor. estimates in the TAR included a as sector regulator. budget for security assurance. TA request was consistent with CSPU 2004–2006. Sector: Agriculture and Natural Resources

38096 (9060) Balkh River Basin Relevant Consistent with government strategy Project formulation was based on a Yes. Project targets rural Security risks and related Water Resources to rebuild the national economy, combination of physical and non- farmers. mitigating measures were Management achieve food self-sufficiency and physical components, providing a discussed at the onset. reduce rural poverty. balanced and innovative approach to improving water management. 40586 (9100) Rural Business Less than Consistent with government’s strategy Project adopted a value chain based Yes. Financial assistance Volatile security situation Support Project relevant to address rural poverty. approach (as opposed to piece meal was to be provided to recognized in the design and this approach). extremely poor households called for engagement with NGOs so they can generate income and adherence to ADB security There were major changes in scope and use the full range of rules and regulations as well as (geographic expansion, type of

38 Appendix 5

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth (Loan/Grant Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations Rating integration in design No.) agricultural commodity value chains, services provided by the rural security situation monitoring. credit modality) and implementation business support centers. arrangement. 36222-012 (9039) Rural Recovery Highly Aligned with the country's National Implementation arrangements Yes. Primary beneficiaries Given the general insecurity and through Community- relevant Development Framework (2002) and recognized capacity constraints of are rural population weak central government Based Irrigation National Solidarity Program various government levels and were depending on agriculture administrative control, the Project Rehabilitation (strengthening local governance and in line with the implementing based activities for livelihood. was implemented by provincial laying a foundation for community arrangements of the national DRRD and NGOs already managed subprojects), and ADB's development framework. working in the project area. Afghanistan CSPU which recognized national reconstruction as the main objective including revitalizing agriculture and natural resource for rural poverty reduction and economic growth. 37046-013 (2083) Agriculture Sector Relevant Consistent with the strategies of ADB Project was based on extensive Yes. While the design cites Political and security situations Program and the government to increase consultations with the government, the rural poor, small and were a concern; hence, increased agriculture sector investment and to work of consultative group, marginal farmers, nomadic funding was mobilized to finance reduce poverty in Afghanistan, and comprehensive needs assessment, pastoralists and other reforms in the security sector. remained relevant to an ongoing and lessons learned from similar livestock herders, returning reform program that will lead to an programs, particularly with respect to refugees, internally displaced On weak institutional capacity, effective agriculture sector and building on government initiated persons, and demobilized ADB’s support for capacity improved livelihoods. reform processes; however, time combatants as part of the building as well as development frames for meeting conditions for beneficiaries of the program, partners were mobilized to help fund release were too optimistic and the design did not adequately build capacity in the relevant performance indicators were acknowledge the poor in the government agencies. Reforms inadequate. rural nonfarm sector, and the initiated under the Program will importance of community help build implementation organizations. capacity within the public sector. 37713-012 (9038) Integrated Relevant Consistent with Afghanistan's The project was not supported by Yes. Project was designed Security concerns were raised at Community development priorities and ADB's appropriate analysis. Implementation keeping in view a multitude of design level, and project Development in country and sector strategies. arrangements were not appropriate the needs of the poor, the personnel were expected to Northern Afghanistan and adequately estimated, which marginalized, and the closely coordinate with UN Complements road investments under resulted in start-up delays. Baseline vulnerable through broad agencies, Afghanistan Resident the Emergency Infrastructure and arrangements for monitoring participatory decision making Mission, and MRRD that monitor Rehabilitation and Reconstruction were lacking and key performance organizations (assisted by the security situation. Project as it focused on improving indicators were formulated with a NGOs), ensuring participation socioeconomic condition of degree of ambiguity or required of women in decision-making communities within the vicinity of sophisticated assessment process and access to project's road component methodologies that were not resources, and access of the Consistent with the National Solidarity appropriate given the size of the poorest in the community to Program that aims to develop capacity project. microcredit. of local communities on project development and management. 38221-012 Capacity Building for Not rated Consistent with government's sector TA restricted to rural land None Security cited as a risk but no (TA 4483) Land Policy and program. tenure/common land/pastures issues mitigating measures mentioned. Administration to avoid overlapping with a new Reform Included in CSPU 2004-2006. USAID multi-year funded project

Appendix 5 39

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth (Loan/Grant Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations Rating integration in design No.) (dedicated to urban land/private land Recognized strong linkages between titling) and given significant progress insecurity and land tenure. on the land policy, the revision of the land legal framework was also added to the TA focus. 38252-012 Capacity Relevant Responded to the need for capacity Outcomes and outputs were realistic, None Risks were identified but no (TA 4716) Development for development of MEW. and targets were appropriate to TA mitigating measures provided. Irrigation and Water Developed within and supported the objectives. Resources framework of ADB's agriculture sector program loan that underpinned ADB's strategy for agriculture and natural resource management in Afghanistan. Sector: Public Sector Management

38122-013 Fiscal Management Relevant Program aligned with the Interim Approaches taken by development None. Recognized that political situation (L2215/G0030) and Public ANDS. Consistent with CSPU 2006- partner assistance to fiscal was not stable but insufficient Administration 2008. management and public financial mitigating measures identified. No Reform Program management should have been budget allocation to address (formerly Public Program was crucial to enable rethought in view of the complexity of security-related concerns noted in Service Delivery government policy and planning capacity development challenges in the RRP. Reform Program) efforts to achieve the country‘s Afghanistan. Program‘s design and development objectives. formulation process underestimated these challenges. DMF impact and outcome statements lacked clarity and were very difficult to measure.

37047-012 Poverty Assessment Highly Scope and objectives of TA were Design was based on the Yes. TA in itself enabled Security was identified as a risk in (TA4313) and Socioeconomic relevant unanimously endorsed by the joint recommendations of the joint selected line ministries to the TA framework. TAR did not and Macroeconomic mission which includes IMF, DFID and mission. Modifications in scope and produce and disseminate discuss any mitigating measures Statistical Capacity the World Bank. content extended the 3-year project socioeconomic and or allocate funds to address the Building life by 2 years. macroeconomic data and to security issues. Some TA to strengthen the country's assess the poverty situation. implementation delays were capacity to produce and disseminate attributed to security issues. socioeconomic and macroeconomic data, and conduct comprehensive poverty assessment expressed commitment from Afghanistan government and ADB. 37561-012 Security of ADB- Not rated TA was a response to address TA completion date was revised from None. Constraints caused by the (TA4345) Financed Projects in effectively the security environment 2006 to 2008. political and security situation Afghanistan and provision of security for ADB were recognized in the DMF. projects in Afghanistan. While mitigating measures were discussed in the TAR/DMF, TA was confirmed by the ADB guidance and security briefings mission in September 2003. were provided on a regular basis TA was supposed to help ADB to ensure minimal impact of comply with UN security guidelines. security issues in project

40 Appendix 5

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth (Loan/Grant Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations Rating integration in design No.) implementation. Budget allocation for UN Minimum Operating Security Standards -compliant vehicles and communications equipment noted in the TA budget. 40580-012 Support to the Highly TA was a response to a request by Partitioning of TA to three Yes. Component 3 aimed to Recognized that security situation (TA4897) Afghanistan National relevant the Government of Afghanistan from components was an enabling factor improve national capacity to affected the conduct of survey in Development ADB in support of the ANDS and the in implementation. However, TA analyze the scope and nature all provinces. No discussion on Strategy Afghanistan Compact. timeframe was optimistic. of poverty. mitigation measures in the TCR. No budget allocation to address Scope, objectives, and activities of the security-related concerns noted in components were widely discussed the TAR. with Government agencies and development partners. 42089-012 Security Plan for TCR With the deteriorating security TA completion date was extended 4 None TA directly addresses the issue (TA7090) Project pending situation in Afghanistan, TA assists times until June 2014 and finally on security in the Afghanistan. Implementation the Government to plan and closed in December 2014. TA costs Allocation for equipment such as implement appropriate mitigation also increased. armored vehicle, trauma kits, and measures to protect staff and assets helmets and vests was included involved in reconstruction and in the TA budget. Allocation for development projects. supplemental security for VIPs and missions was also noted in the TA budget. Sector: Finance

37393 Private Sector and Relevant Program was consistent with country’s PCR noted that the design was None. DMF and RRP recognized (G0067/G0068) Financial Market development objectives and ADB’s sound and included a number of security as a risk. Delays due to Development initial CSP 2002-2004 and CSPU outputs to address constraints: security situation were noted Program (G0067) and 2006–2008. Program outputs were in line with indicating that mitigation Supporting Private recent trends in the international aid measures may have been Sector and Financial I-ANDS acknowledged private sector assistance. insufficient. No budget allocation Market Reforms development as key outcome and to address security-related Capacity Building prioritized reform programs to concerns noted in the RRP. (G0068) strengthen the financial sector. 38912-014 Afghanistan Relevant Project was relevant to the country’s Because of the chosen modality None. Security was identified as a risk to (L2091) Investment development objectives, the National PRG cover for noncommercial risks the project. Deteriorating security Guarantee Facility Development Framework (2002) and that were or ought to have been greatly affected the project but CSP 2002–2004. within the power of the government the PCR has no discussion on to mitigate, project design became how this was addressed or ADB acknowledged the need for less attractive. Project design also mitigated. No budget allocation to investment insurance or guarantees to did not address (i) the inability of the address security-related concerns help catalyze private investments. Afghanistan Investment Support noted in RRP. Agency to translate initial investor interest into foreign direct investment or to promote PRGs to support such investment. (ii) MIGA’s limited marketing of PRGs, and (iii) local investors’ lack of interest in PRGs.

Appendix 5 41

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth (Loan/Grant Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations Rating integration in design No.)

Sector: Multisector

36231-013 Post Conflict Highly ADB’s program support for policy and Program adopted a realistic None. Volatile political situation and (L1954) Multisector Program relevant institutional reform in Afghanistan approach to policy and institutional unpredictable security situation complemented and in many ways reform in post-conflict Afghanistan, were recognized as risks to strengthened World Bank and IMF keeping in view the government’s project implementation. programs in the country. National Development Framework Quantification of risk and objective of promoting economic development of risk mitigation Formulated in response to growth and poverty reduction while mechanisms were mentioned in Government’s weak fiscal situation developing the private sector and the PCR (Appendix 5). PCR and need to support efforts to meet its creating a modern Afghan state. noted that Afghanistan's difficult ordinary budget deficit. Design introduced the first security environment posed Stands out as major accomplishment generation of policy and institutional challenges in implementation. of development assistance to reforms that laid the foundation of a The mitigation measures were not Afghanistan, for without this market-driven economy. discussed or assessed in the foundation additional donor assistance PCR. No budget allocation to would not have been channeled. address security-related concerns noted in the RRP. 36673-013 Emergency Relevant Consistent with (i) the Government’s The emergency nature of the Project None. Not directly discussed Volatile political situation was (L1997) Infrastructure strategy to improve infrastructure; (ii) meant only a short time used in in the RRP but project had recognized as a risk to project Rehabilitation and CSP 2002–2004; and (iii) ADB’s policy design preparation and thus an implications on infrastructure implementation. RRP mitigation Reconstruction on rehabilitation assistance after inherent weakness which resulted in that eventually benefitted the statement that ADB would closely disasters. some cost overruns and time poor. monitor and coordinate with local extensions. The amount saved from and central authorities and the the road component was quickly UN agencies to ensure adequate processed (from September to protection appears to be December 2003) into an irrigation inadequate. No budget allocation component and subsequently added to address security-related to the Project in January 2004. concerns noted in the RRP. 37102-012 Kabul Air Quality Relevant TA was a response to the TCR indicated that TA design was None. Not discussed in TAR. (TA4415) Management Government's request to ADB and adequate, terms of reference for concern over the increasing levels of consultants were appropriate, and air pollution in Kabul. TA was completed within the budget. However, it implied in the lesson section that the TA could have benefited from a flexible approach, longer implementation period, and realistic implementation arrangements given the ongoing transition of Afghanistan from conflict to peace and development as well as Afghanistan's limited human and institutional capacity. Sector: Industry and Trade

(39571-012) 4699 Building the Capacity Not rated Consistent with ANDS. Well-formulated given that it was None. None indicated in the TAR.

42 Appendix 5

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth (Loan/Grant Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations Rating integration in design No.) of the Ministry of based on recommendations of the Commerce for Trade Consistent with CSPU 2006-2008. TA on Cross-Border Trade and and Transit Supports regional development Transport Facilitation (4536-AFG). Facilitation agenda under the framework of the TA had clear but unrealistic Central and South Asia Trade and objectives. Transport Forum initiative. International consultant’s terms of Builds on preliminary findings of TA reference were well-structured and 4536-AFG: Cross-Border Trade and comprehensive, albeit quite broad Transport Facilitation. and ambitious. Complements ongoing assistance provided by other development partners. 40577-012 (4906) Capacity Building for Not rated Consistent with CSPU 2006-2008. The terms of reference for each None. Customs and Trade consultant were clearly defined. Facilitation Supports the implementation of recommendations from meetings of the Central and South Asia Trade and Transport Forum and CAREC. Builds on the findings of other recent and ongoing TA to facilitate trade (TA 4699 and TA 4536-AFG). Complements assistance provided by other development partners, particularly the World Bank and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Sector: Health

36628 (9030) Primary Health Care Relevant Consistent with Afghanistan’s Project’s design, objectives, Yes. Design had gender equity Governance and capacity Partnership for the National Development Framework. components, implementation objectives and focused on identified as risks but no Poor arrangements and schedule were cost-effective interventions for mitigation measures provided at Linked to ADB’s proposed social appropriate and relevant. the poor (i.e., about design. sector program and World Bank’s $3/person/year). Health Sector Emergency Highly participatory from planning to Project ensured community Reconstruction and Development implementation. Project will help create income involvement not only in site Project. opportunities for the poor. selection and provision of land and labor, but also in assurance of security. ADB = Asian Development Bank, AFG = Afghanistan, ANDS = Afghanistan National Development Strategy, ANR = agriculture and natural resources, CPS = country partnership strategy, CSP = country strategy and program, CSPU = country strategy and program update, DFID = Department for International Development, DMF = design and monitoring framework, DRRD = Department of Rural Rehabilitation and Development, IMF = International Monetary Fund, JFPR = Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction, MEW = Ministry of Energy and Water, MIGA = Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, MOT = Ministry of Transport, MPW = Ministry of Public Works, MRRD = Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development, NGO = nongovernment organization, PCR = project completion report, PPTA = project preparatory technical assistance, PRG = political risk guarantee, RRP = Report and Recommendation of the President, TA = technical assistance, TAR = technical assistance report, TCR = technical assistance completion report, UN = United Nations, USAID= United States Agency for International Development. Sources: Project Completion Reports (PCR), Technical Assistance Completion Reports, Implementation Completion Memorandum, PCR Validation Reports and Project Completion Report, Back to Office Reports, and eOps.

Appendix 5 43

Table A5.2: Project Performance: Effectiveness Rating

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging

Sector: Energy

40043 Regional Power Effective 163 km 220 kV transmission line, Restoration of Consumption increased from Improved capacity in Technical capacity (L2304/G0230/ Transmission demining of 4.5 km section power supply. 21 kWh/yrea to 106kWh in utility operations, building provided to TA4909) Interconnection (completion of substations 2011. and commercial trainers on delayed). Reduction of operations. protection and electricity costs 1,274 diesel generators were substation (consumption per discontinued (100% operations but no capita from 21 to replacement target was not institutional and 35kWh/year). achieved). management 100% Power supply to Kabul was training provided replacement of only at 200.6 MW. due to diesel gas turbine reorganization of power. Collection rate was reported utility operator; to be about 80% (but no lacked commitment Satisfy 300 MW baseline was provided). on the part of the demand in Kabul. executing agency Electricity cost decreased by to strengthen its Increase collection $11.8 million in 2012 and $20 institutional and rates. million in 2013. management Decrease power capacity. cost by $25 million/year).

43497 Power Sector Master Effective Updated power sector master None None Improved MEW The outcome was (TA 7637/8475) Plan/Addendum to the plan (with a 20-year demand ability to analyze achieved by (i) Power Sector Master forecast presented, and program ensuring MEW’s Plan recommended generation and investments in the active involvement transmission development set power sector as in all stages of the out, and investment projects indicated by the use TA, (ii) enhancing justified on economic, financial, of the master plan in MEW’s planning safeguard, and technical investment capacity, and (iii) grounds). programming. delivering a populated software system model and detailed investment road map. MEW’s ability further enhanced by the need for detailed assessment of domestic and regional solutions with the trade-off of

44 Appendix 5

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging reduced energy security against increased low-cost supply fed by imports. ADB investment programming (North-South Transmission and MFF Energy Sector Development Investment Program tranche 5) are based on the power sector master plan.

39402 Support to the Less than Establishment Interministerial None None ICE staff able to The full (TA 4918) Interministerial effective Commission for Energy (ICE) assess data, implementation of Commission for Energy secretariat. The commercial synthesize and the envisioned ICE advisory team facilitated develop energy mandate was never formulation of monthly and strategy, prepare realized (i.e., quarterly progress reports, planning and policy prioritizing and paperwork for DABS for review. costing of energy incorporation, power purchase sector programs for agreements for power import Improved short- and medium- from neighboring countries, implementation of term, and general baseline for sector governance ongoing projects. capacity and regulation, corporate National energy development of key financial statements and training, sector strategic plan, line ministries in proposal for upgrading of power regional and technical, master plan, and draft provincial energy managerial and Afghanistan National strategies, line administrative Development Strategy (energy ministry energy functions). component). sector strategies Performance is drafted within 6 contingent on months of startup. resolving major Improved structural, communication technical, fiscal and systems in place to governance issues keep key decision on the part of makers informed of government, where sector institutions are in developments, nascent stages. facilitate market relationships, coordinate energy

Appendix 5 45

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging project development, and build regional linkages. Energy sector investments identified that will facilitate reshaping the sector to become market- based and sustainable. Greater ability of the Government to interact with donors and potential investors through regular meetings and reviews of energy sector portfolios. Consultation process that will assess the social, environmental, and other impacts of energy restructuring to promote sound regulation of the sector.

Sector: Transport

36553 (J9024/ Road Employment Effective (a) 100+ km of Kandahar-Spin 161,500 individuals provided At least 10,000 None identified Synergy impacts to G0076) Project for Settlement Boldak rehabilitated, 2 bridges with health services. On refugees and the poor facilitated and Integration of replaced, 1 bridge repaired, local average, about 8,000 displaced persons with the (i) improved Returning Refugees and gravel roads not constructed, 10,000 patients received health obtained secondary roads, Displaced Persons refugees/DPs employed in services per month. opportunities for and (ii) rehabilitation construction activities, and several sustainable of primary road local contractors trained in project livelihood. network. construction activities; (b) 10,000 refugees/ DPs trained in construction, 3,900 refugees trained on income generating activities; (c) 2 education facilities rehabilitated,

46 Appendix 5

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging 16 schools received educational support, 6 schools constructed, and 1,500 refugees benefited from literacy and basic education support; and (d) 4 health facilities constructed.

37075-013 Andkhoy-Qaisar Road Effective (a) Improvement of 210 km Andkhoy (a) 50% decrease in travel (a) Approximately Enhanced capacity MPW capacity to (L2140) to Qaisar road completed as required time per trip; 65% decrease in of MPW to manage manage project but with delays as roads fully opened travel time per trip; project. enhanced. to traffic only in 2010; (b) 50% decrease in VOC or freight and passenger (b) VOC savings (b) Facility for road tolling and axle transport fares; range from 25% to load control not achieved; 41%, and 40%- (c) average 50% reduction 49% decrease in (c) A total of four trainee engineers, in travel time to nearest taxi and bus fares; three project implementation health, primary education, engineers and two project managers and other essential services. (c) Assessed were heavily involved in the project reduction in travel and gained valuable project time to nearest experience. health, primary education, and other essential services.

37136-013 Regional Airports Effective (a) 4 of 7 airports rehabilitated; (a) 50% increase in number (a) Over 100% Capacity in Capacity in MOTCA (L2105) Rehabilitation Project of flights and passengers in increase in number MOTCA for civil for civil aviation Phase 1 (b) Precision approach path rehabilitated airports; of flights and aviation sector sector management indicators meeting International Civil passengers in 3 management strengthened. Aviation Organization standards (b) Zero incidence of airports and strengthened. provided in 4 airports; trespassing into airports; remained same in (c) 72 staff from 4 airports and (c) 50% decrease in 1 airport; MOTCA trained on flight safety, air accidents; and (b) No data on traffic control, and post-construction number of operation management. (d) 50% decrease in flight cancellations. trespassing; (c) No accidents reported from 2007-2011; and (d) No incidences of cancellations reported.

37728-012 Emergency Road Effective 112 km national road rehabilitated, Increase in road traffic. Road traffic volume Increase in social No data confirming (J9037) Rehabilitation as targeted. increased with services and increase of new reduced travel income of rural social services along time. poor in the project rehabilitated road,

Appendix 5 47

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging area. but access provided to existing nearby schools and clinics. No statistical data on increased income of rural poor but benefits were generated during and after construction in terms of direct employment.

39467-013 North-South Corridor Highly (a) Target of 220.65 km improved (a) 50% decrease in travel (a) Average of 75% 5,000 people 6,000 people (L2257/G0054 Project effective national highway sections (Mazar-e- time on the project roads for decrease in travel sensitized or with sensitized on /G0135/J9097) Sharif to Dar-i-suf and Bamyan to all types of vehicles time per trip; improved HIV/AIDS. Yakawlang) achieved with some immediately after project awareness on delays; completion; (b) Traffic volumes HIV/AIDS. more than four (b) Target installation of cross-border (b) 10% increase per year in times higher in facilities achieved; and freight and passenger traffic 2012 than in 2005; on the project roads for 3 (c) 6,000 (target of 5,000) people years after project (c) Freight reached by public awareness completion; transport fares campaign on HIV/AIDS. reduced to 45% in (c) 20% decrease in freight the Bamyan to and passenger transport Yakawlang region; fares passing through the Bus fares project roads within 1 year decreased by of project completion; and 80%;and (d) Average 30% reduction (d) Travel times in in travel time to nearest the project area health and social services reduced by 75% by areas within 3 months of project completion. completion.

42533-022 Hairatan to Mazar-e- Highly (a) 75 km railway line and stations By 2012: (a) Freight (a) Increased job (a) Employment in (G0161) Sharif Railway effective (with line meeting specifications, transported by opportunities for the project area has upgraded marshalling yard, and (a) Freight transported by trains reached women in the rail an overall growth of signaling and telecommunication trains reaches 6,000 tons about 6,500 tons service and local 10–11% per year, system installed) between Hairatan per day from 4,500 tons per per day in 2012; businesses, but due to cultural and Mazar-e-Sharif constructed and day in 2008; including logistics restrictions, the (b) Composition of operated); and (b) Composition of heavy services at all number of women heavy vehicle stations and at employed is (b) long-term railway development vehicle traffic on Hairatan– traffic is about Mazar-e-Sharif road Mazar-e-Sharif insignificant; and plan (2013-2025) drafted, legal and 40%, at current airport; and regulatory framework drafted and reduced to 35% from 50% in volumes of freight (b) No suspected

48 Appendix 5

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging reviewed by government, O&M 2008; traffic, composition (b) Reduced cases of HIV and agreement signed between was less than 35% incidence of HIV other sexually Uzbekistan Temir Yullari and (c) Travel time for freight in 2008; and other sexually transmitted government, and 32 staff trained in traffic between Hairatan and transmitted infections reported in railway O&M. Mazar-e-Sharif reduced to 1 (c) Travel time for infections in the the Hairatan– hour from 2 hours in 2008; freight project area. Mazar-e-Sharif transportation by project area. (d) CO2 emissions reduced rail between from 2.3 million tons per Hairatan and year (2008) to 1.7 million Mazar-e-Sharif has tons ; and been reduced to (e) Around 5 million people about 1 hour; will benefit from the project (d) CO2 emissions and railway operations. are about 1.9 million tons per year at current volumes of freight traffic; and (e) Over 7 million people have benefited from the project.

42533-012 Railway Development Effective Study on railway development in the Development of an Outcome achieved Recommended Outcome achieved (TA7259) Study northern part of the country affordable, safe, through Grant approach for the through Grant 0161. completed in 2011 after its scope environmentally friendly, 0161. government on was expanded. Input for transport energy-efficient, and reliable railway projects, e.g., Grant 0161. transport system in development in the Afghanistan. northern part of Afghanistan. 37083-012 Capacity Building for Not rated (a) Curricula for road database — — (a) MPW's capacity (a) Road database (TA4675) Road Sector Institutions management and quality control for to develop a road management and road works were provided to the road database, carry out quality control construction department of KPU; road surveys, and ineffective due to operate a material lack of information/ (b) Training courses for road testing laboratory data, implementation database management and quality equipped with delays, and control for road works in the MPW appropriate testing unsatisfactory retraining scheme, and also for equipment and performance of the faculty members of RCD of KPU quality control of consultants; were provided; road works strengthened; (b) Measures to (c) Testing equipment in the material strengthen internal testing laboratory, the quality control (b) MPW's financial controls; keeping and database management unit of management of records, and the Survey and Design Department road projects establishing in MPW and RCD of KPU to be strengthened; and appropriate systems upgraded; and procedures

Appendix 5 49

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging suggested; and (d) Assistance to improve financial (c) Best practices management systems and implemented (c) Conducted procedures including financial through technical technical audits management manuals provided; and audits of road revealed construction inconsistencies in (e) Construction practices to be projects. project execution improved through the provided and suggested technical audit manuals and measures to improve methodologies. contract administration and quality controls. 37326-012 Road Rehabilitation and Less (a) Feasibility studies on 2 priority Agreed loan projects for A road investment MPW’s capacity for Capacities of MPW (TA4828) Capacity Building effective roads (i) Kabul-Jalalabad, and (ii) improvement of high priority project did not project and MOT in Cluster Salang completed; roads. receive funding. management and effectively procurement undertaking their (b) MPW staff trained on project strengthened, and respective tasks management, procurement and MOT’s capacity for improved but administration; regulations on sustainability may (c) Institutional and road sector transport services prove elusive assessments and restructuring plans improved. without further prepared for MPW and MOT; support (d) Development of legal and regulatory framework for road transport services (no information on completion).

Sector: Agriculture and Natural Resources

38096 Balkh River Basin Water Less than Various consultant reports in Improved infrastructure for This was not Improved livelihood The non- (9060) Resources Management effective accordance with the TOR. irrigation and water accomplished due opportunities, water achievement of the management in the Balkh to changed management, activities was mainly River Basin, and improved emphasis in project agricultural due to MEW having operation and maintenance activities, delays in productivity, and little interest and of irrigation facilities. approval of reduced poverty in understanding of the changed activity the Balkh River importance of schedule, and Basin. planned activities delays in (not fully committed implementation of Reduced conflicts to IWRM). essential over water preparatory work. allocation in the Balkh River Basin and developed mechanisms for water allocation, planning and

50 Appendix 5

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging monitoring. Strengthened capacity of government officials, mirabs (traditional water managers), and other stakeholders in the Balkh River Basin. Institutional development for water resources management in the Balkh River Basin.

40586 Rural Business Support Not rated Potato value chain- Extension None None Four RBSC No RBSCs were (9100) Project assistance (demonstrations, field days operating established due to and outreach activities) to over 5,000 profitably. change in project producers. Focused multiyear technical scope. assistance, training and equity Annually, 5,000 investment on 1,411 potato producers farm families Project investments and members of 8 potato producer benefiting from assisted 10,000 value cooperatives. new long-term chain stakeholders income- increasing their 5,000 farmers and 36 edible oil generating income by about $6 processors and over 2,000 wool opportunities, and million during project spinners, carpet weavers and carpet 3,600 from short- period. traders received technical assistance, term ones, with an training and equity investment average increase 39 producer (Recipients of farm implements and of 40% of family cooperatives and two processing machines). income by the processing Project’s end. cooperatives established (14 in the 9,000 farm oil value chain, 8 in families indirectly potato and 17 in benefiting from carpet). the Project. 20 producer's 40 producer and cooperatives for marketing potato and oil crops associations and were able to generate 4 cooperatives income from renting established and RBSP-supplied operating at a equipment to profit. members and non- members. Half of the producer 40 trainers were

Appendix 5 51

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging beneficiaries trained (comprised engaged at least government and once in training project staff). and capacity development. 5,795 potato producers received 75% of training (potato beneficiaries production, harvesting “satisfied” with the best practices, sorting Project. and grading, and marketing seed and ware potatoes. 373 benefited from training of trainers in wool processing and weaving best practices. 1,895 carpet weavers trained on best practices, 327 recipients of spinning wheels trained. 3 carpet designers were trained in website design, and 4,352 oil producers trained in oil crop production, post- harvest and marketing best practices. No satisfaction survey conducted but the high demand for project activities is indicative of high level of satisfaction with project interventions and resulted in a follow on project.

36222-012 Rural Recovery through Less than 74 subprojects (out of the targeted 120 Short-term Approximately 38,600 Improved Every village and (9039) Community-Based effective small scale irrigation) were completed in employment households benefitted knowledge and provincial authority Irrigation Rehabilitation 3 provinces in northern Afghanistan opportunities for from short-term skills of involved in (average command area has not been 40,000 to 45,000 employment. communities, implementation community-based benefitted from a12-

52 Appendix 5

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging recorded in the M&E system). members. 185,000 directly and organizations and module training. indirectly benefited local Regular reporting established for each Long-term benefits from the project. governments. subproject. M&E system was not accruing to adequate to monitor all key performance approximately indicators. 150,000 households involved in agriculture based livelihood activities.

37046-013 Agriculture Sector Less than Sector policy and planning framework None None Increased Valuable progress (2083) Program effective (rationalized functions of MAIL, MEW, participation of was made as and MRRD; sector development strategy private sector in opportunities are master plan). agricultural being provided for the production, private sector to Natural Resource Management marketing, and invest in and provide (passage of water, land management, service provision. more efficient and environmental protection laws); services in the Cabinet approved land, forest, rangeland Restructuring/ agriculture sector. As and land policies including a national divestment of all a result of the environmental impact assessment agricultural SOEs. program, the policy; national environment protection government prepared agency and land authority established. Government capacity for procedures for Policy and institutional reforms in sustainable restructuring and support services received little attention natural resource divesting all SOEs. (rural credit, certification and assurance management. However, only one- systems agricultural research and third of the SOEs are technology transfer system). Government under liquidation capacity for committees, and the Agricultural commodity markets (reduced rational sector divestments of the poppy cultivation and increased private policy making and Afghan Fertilizer investment in agriculture; studies on planning. Trading Company and import fees, access to quality seeds, Improved Seed removal of price controls, and Improved food Enterprise are still strengthening of quality assurance security for all ongoing. systems undertaken). rural households. Commitment to State-owned enterprises (23 out of 64 continuing capacity SOEs and 3 banks are under liquidation development is strong committees; ongoing divestment of 3 in MRRD and MAIL. SOEs). However, only MAIL was able to reduce its number of departments and an increase in MEW and MRRD. Food security worsened in 2008 because of the poor

Appendix 5 53

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging harvest, very high international wheat prices and a ban on export of wheat from Pakistan.

37713-012 Integrated Community Less than 40 out of the targeted 72 CDCs None None 90% of Key performance (9038) Development in effective mobilized. communities indicator not Northern Afghanistan achieving 70% of measured at project objectives within completion. their community development plan Community for 3 years by development plans for June 2007. 50% of the villages were prepared by April 2008. Achieved infrastructure construction in only 50% of target villages due to reduced effective project implementation period and delays in fund flow mechanism. Microcredit development was not implemented.

54 Appendix 5

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging

38221-012 Capacity Building for Effective Feasibility of community-based None None Comprehensive Outcome achieved (TA 4483) Land Policy and pasture land administration and model land policy based on the full Administration Reform for administration of community range promulgated delivery of outputs. land agreements by village shuras. within 2 years. Capacity assessments of institutions An appropriate and proposed capacity building land titling and recommendations to be implemented registration together with institutional reform. system in place within 3 years. Civil servants, NGOs and communities trained on ADAMAP. Program could be presented by Government to potential donors (analysis of problems, discussion of possible solutions, and nationwide vision for a better land administration and management). This program was supported by a new land policy.

38252-012 Capacity Development Not rated Due to delayed start, some of the None None Senior officials able Outcomes largely (TA 4716) for Irrigation and Water proposed activities and associated to direct all TA- achieved. Resources outputs identified in the TA had been developed activities Improved decision taken up under government initiatives. by the end of the making capacity for TA coincided with start of a major TA. senior officials, government-funded water sector Defined procedures Improved capacity for development program, yet MEW had no for core MEW staff improving capacity to tender and manage the organizational and institutionalizing feasibility studies and civil works functions in place core organizational contracts. TA supported a new Project and Irrigation process, especially for Implementation Unit under the General Department staff project development Director of Planning to identify potential able to execute and management schemes, prepare bidding documents for 50% of all manifested through feasibility and civil works, evaluate procedures by the the establishment and proposals, administer and monitor end of the TA and training of the Project contracts, and evaluate the outputs. 100% within 4 Implementation Unit. Inputs resulted in quality outputs that years. Outcome related to were used on a day-to-day basis by Capacity for transboundary water MEW to further their program of work managing shared management was not and standardize procedures. water resources realized. with Central Asian riparian neighbors by the end of the TA. Sector: Public Sector Management

Appendix 5 55

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging

38122-013 Fiscal Management and Less (a) Budgeting framework — — Building blocks for Building blocks for (L2215/ Public Administration effective enhanced through approved improved public improved public G0030) Reform Program budget law, chart of accounts, finances are in finances are only (formerly Public Service inventory of government-owned place and partly achieved, i.e., Delivery Reform and controlled entities, functioning as (i) tax and non-tax Program) restructured moustufiats (i.e., intended, i.e., (i) yields meet targets MOF provincial offices), created tax and non-tax not achieved; (ii) fiscal policy unit; yields meet timely and effective targets; (ii) timely fiscal framework (b) A more results-oriented public and effective implementation partly investment program partially fiscal framework achieved; (iii) effective achieved; implementation; articulation of the (c) Resource mobilization (iii) effective budget for National enhanced through amended articulation of the Development revenue law and tax codes; budget for Framework is still a National work in progress; and (d) More effective and responsive Development (iv) audited civil service administration Framework; and statements of the partially achieved; (iv) audited national budget and statements of the other government- (e) More functional and national budget controlled entities development-oriented provincial and other substantially administrations partially government- achieved. achieved; controlled entities. (f) Greater transparency and accountability of public finances achieved through issuance of financial budgeting and audit manuals; and (g) No update on final output. 37047-012 Poverty Assessment Less (a) CSO CPI was expanded to — — (a) Higher (a) Not fully achieved; (TA4313) and Socioeconomic and effective include six more provinces; capacity at CSO Macroeconomic and selected line (b) Integrated Statistical Capacity (b) No update on the expected ministries to Business Enterprise Building poverty assessment report; compile improved Survey developed and updated key and released/ (c) National accounts estimates disseminated. improved; socioeconomic indicators, i.e., (d) Trade, balance-of-payment, ability to design fiscal and monetary data and implement improved; sample surveys with minimum (e) No update on the review of assistance at legal and institutional framework completion of and current statistical system technical

56 Appendix 5

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging adjustments; assistance; and (f) Trained CSO staff and line (b) Economic ministries conducted field visits to statistics monitor collection, tabulation and produced quality; regularly with limited external (g) No update on upgrading of support. physical infrastructure at CSO and selected ministries; and (h) Integrated Business Enterprise survey results released in December 2010 and ran publicity campaigns.

37561-012 Security of ADB- Not rated (a) Emergency Management Plan — — (a) Master (a) Both sub-outcome (TA4345) Financed Projects in (which include security Emergency targets were Afghanistan measures) and project security Management Plan achieved; plans tailored to the specific completed by the requirements of individual end of December (b and c) both projects completed; 2004 and outcome targets were individual project ongoing as of TCR (b) Ongoing risk assessments of security plans writing in 2010. ADB projects in various regions completed by of Afghanistan and expected to October 2004; provide security implementation advice and mitigation measures; (b) Identification and of requirements for developing (c) Ongoing participation in the and enabling the UN and other pertinent security implementation of coordination bodies, such as the the security plans; Government of Afghanistan facilitation and ministries and security forces, advice on the International Security Assistance acquisition of Force, Provincial Reconstruction necessary Teams, etc. equipment, recruitment of security personnel, design and construction of security reinforcement measures for work camps and other physical assets; implemented security plans by

Appendix 5 57

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging the end of April 2005; and (c) Active participation with identified agencies present in Afghanistan in security-related matters. 40580-012 Support to the Effective Component 1: Target outputs — — Component 1: Component 1: CSO (TA4897) Afghanistan National achieved but with considerable Capacity of CSO staff acquired skills Development Strategy delays and cost overruns. enhanced to and knowledge in collect, analyze, conducting surveys Component 2: Vulnerabilities to and manage from experts, which corruption risk assessments on ANDS/PRSP- are useful in the road and energy sectors related data, and producing official completed and incorporated into poverty statistics, filling ANDS and were inputs to the assessment statistical skills gap government in the development completed by and monitoring the of an overall anti-corruption early 2007. ANDS, and poverty strategy. assessment Component 2: completed but with Component 3: Outputs were Government delivered in time to serve as considerable delay adopted a and cost overrun. inputs to ANDS. multipronged, strategic, and Component 2: coordinated National approach to accountability and curbing transparency corruption, and strategy/action plan new developed reconstruction incorporates outputs and investment from TA and adopted funded by ADB by government. explicitly builds in accountability and Component 3: transparency Afghanistan pilot measures in the participatory poverty project cycle. assessment demonstrated, and Component 3: CSO and ANDS unit Civil society capacity to analyze organizations and the scope and nature ANDS Unit of poverty improved. develop and implement a pilot methodology to

58 Appendix 5

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging collect and analyze qualitative data on poverty in selected target areas, and results of analysis reflected in the ANDS. 42089-012 Security Plan for Project TCR pending (a) Security risk assessment and — — (a) Less TCR pending (TA7090) Implementation needs identification report disruption to TA prepared by August 2008. and projects due to improved (b) Guidelines and crisis security measures management plans submitted to at time of and approved October 2008. implementation. (c) Guidelines and security plans (b) Positive trends submitted to and approved by should be seen October 2008. within 1–2 years (d) Needs assessment and with outcomes security measures achieved by May implementation guidelines report 2010. submitted and approved by EA by 2008. (e) Establishment of a regular information-sharing scheme between relevant agencies by November 2008. (f) Procurement of equipment in year 1 of the TA.

Sector: Finance

Appendix 5 59

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging 37393 Private Sector and Less (a) Targeted commercial — — (a) Increased (a) Data for targets on (G0067/G0068) Financial Market effective arbitration and immovable private sector private sector share, Development Program property formalization laws were share in industrial private saving rate (G0067) and Supporting achieved while the targeted out- production (from and registered private Private Sector and of-court business dispute 26% in 2005 to enterprises were not Financial Market resolution system and land titling approximately available while the Reforms Capacity and management system were 40% in 2009), targeted private Building (G0068) still ongoing as of project increased private investment rate was completion; investment rate not achieved; (b) Targeted municipal price (from 8.5% in (b) Targeted access controls and business registration 2005 to to bank credit, deposit and permit system were approximately mobilization and bank achieved; 14% in 2011), loans and deposits (c) Targeted bidding invitations increased private maturity were for SOE assets and social safety savings rate (from achieved while data net program for redundant 2.3% in 2005 to for the target on workers were achieved while the approximately 8% borrowing costs were target mechanism for SOE in 2011), and not available. liquidation was ongoing as of increased number project completion; of registered (d) Targeted agreement on cross private border supervision, detailed risk enterprises; management regulations and (b) Increased guidelines, policies and access to bank procedures on conservatorship, credit (from 1.2% receivership and forced of GDP in 2005 to liquidation of banks, regulations approximately 5% on banks’ external audit, and of GDP in 2009), training on internal control, risk higher deposit management, enforcement mobilization (from actions and back-office 3.6% of GDP in operations were achieved while 2005 to the targeted system for managing approximately enforcement actions was partially 11% of GDP in achieved; and 2009), longer (e) Targeted accounting and maturity of bank auditing laws were ongoing while loans and the targeted accounting and deposits (from a auditing board and accreditation maximum of 6 and training programs were not months in 2005 to achieved. at least 1 year in 2009), and lower borrowing costs. 38912-014 Afghanistan Investment Effective (a) 6 PRGs issued amounting to — — (a) Increase in (a) Foreign direct (L2091) Guarantee Facility $80.4 million supporting 5 private sector investment of $108.6 enterprises; investment and million and 850 jobs employment

60 Appendix 5

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging indicator; created;

(b) Amount and number (10-20) of (b) Response time did not directly PRGs issued. (b) 6 PRGs issued contribute to the output with value of $80.4 statement; hence, was excluded million. in assessing the project output.

Sector: Multisector

36231-013 Postconflict Multisector Effective (a) All governance and financial sector — — (a) Government (a) Program helped (L1954) Program reforms were achieved but with delays capacity for policy improve on some expected reforms; making and planning governance and improved; finance by creating (b) At time of second tranche release, all an enabling reforms were complied with, except for (b) Efficient and framework for three that were fully achieved during the effective concerned financial sector PCR mission; ministries and reform and agencies improved. (c) All energy sector reforms were improving working achieved but with slight delays on some of the financial reforms. system, fiscal management and transparency, and personnel management; (b) Progress was made in improving efficiency in the transport and energy sectors, and opportunities were created for investment and development of these sectors.

36673-013 Emergency Less (a) Of the 392 km of road, 284 km were (a) Improved access; (a) Access improved; — — (L1997) Infrastructure effective reconstructed including 80 km upgraded Rehabilitation and to a higher standard, and Naibabad- (b) Improved power (b) Improved power Reconstruction Hairatan 55 km road was reconstructed supply in Kabul; supply in Kabul on target as of PCR; to a higher standard than designed (c) Reduction in power overlay only; distribution losses; (c) Reduction in (b) First sub-output was on target, power distribution (d) Enhanced losses not achieved, except 50 cct-km of 110 kV transmission availability of gas in lines, but second sub-output was not component not Mazar-e-Sharif and implemented;

Appendix 5 61

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging implemented; Sheberghan; (d) Enhanced availability of gas in c) Rehabilitation of gas production and (e) Reduction in gas Mazar-e-Sharif and distribution facilities in Sheberghan and losses because of Sheberghan not 13 km transmission line to Mazar-e- leakage; and achieved, component Sharif were either cancelled or not cancelled; implemented; (f) Increased share of natural gas in overall (e) Reduction in gas (d) Creation of database of the energy consumption. losses because of rehabilitated Kabul distribution network leakage not achieved, was not implemented; component cancelled; (e) Metering and billing of 30,000 more and electricity consumers, increase in (f) Increased share of collection rate to 60%, and improving natural gas in overall metering and collection for gas were energy consumption either cancelled or not implemented; and not achieved, (f) Provision of adequate O&M budget component cancelled. not achieved.

37102-012 Kabul Air Quality Not rated The TA delivered the following outputs: — — (a) An air quality (a) Government (TA4415) Management (a) An AGM Strategy for air quality management has yet to improvement in Kabul was developed, strategy is adopted formulate an with the policy on vehicular emission by the Government implementation reduction; after completion; plan for the air quality (b) National Environmental Protection (b) Government management Agency's capacity for data collection, officials trained strategy; installation, operation and maintenance during TA of monitoring systems was built through completion; and (b) No institutional four workshops, seminars, and trainings arrangements have on air quality; (c) Public awareness been made for the on air quality use of data (c) Air quality monitoring systems management is collected under the (equipment) were procured and installed raised. TA; in eight locations in Kabul; (c) No adequate (d) Public awareness about air quality systems have been was raised through audio-visual and established for the print media, as well as distribution of post-TA campaign materials; on public (e) Baseline data on air quality were awareness about established; air quality. (f) An inventory of pollutant sources at the city level and related pollution corridors was assessed and reported. Data were collected on hazardous

62 Appendix 5

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging

pollutants NO2, SO2, and PM-10 and analyzed. (g) Two fountains powered through solar panels were constructed. As of September 2008, however, neither of the fountains was operational due to inadequate operation and maintenance by local authorities.

Sector: Industry and Trade 4699 Building the Capacity of Not rated but Capacity Building: (a) Basic capacity- Trade and transit (i) Preparation of a the Ministry of TA partly building road map and initial training agreements (re) new agreement to Commerce for Trade successful needs assessment for Ministry of negotiated and regulate transit and Transit Facilitation with respect Commerce; implementation between to its (b) Appropriate seminars and training strengthened, in Afghanistan and capacity events; partnership with Pakistan; (ii) development (c) General Directorate of Transit & Ministry of Finance promotion of objectives Trade Facilitation under the Ministry of principles behind a and Commerce established in 2007, with the functional regional successful subsequent creation of a Division of transit system with Transit Agreements and a Division of facilitating cross agreements, Border Posts and Freight Logistics (not border trade, principles targeted in the design and monitoring including and framework); delineation of definitions Transit Facilitation: (d) Revision of responsibilities related to Afghan Trade and Transit Agreement among different border trade. drafted (but yet to be endorsed by the agencies at the Joint Economic Commission between border in line with Afghanistan and Pakistan governments); international good (e) Protocol on Cross Border Traffic practice; and (iii) between the Islamic Republic of definition of new Afghanistan and the Republic of border functions for Tajikistan signed in 2008; the Ministry of (f) Preparation of the transit and trade Commerce. facilitation component of the Ministry of Capacity building Commerce’s contribution to the was less than Afghanistan National Development successful as the Strategy (not targeted in the design and Directorate of monitoring framework); Transit and Trade (f) Initiation of negotiations for new were newly agreements; established, Cross Border Facilitation: (g) Joint ADB- leaving little time World Bank agreement on cross-border for training. transit facilitation priorities reached and presented to Government (not achieved but TA recommendations to simplify and

Appendix 5 63

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging streamline transit border crossing facilities customs procedures and documentation were adopted by Ministry of Commerce, developed Integrated Border Management defining responsibilities of agencies as well as layout of infrastructure facilities, and undertook survey to create baseline for ANDS); Private Sector Participation: (h) Draft report on preliminary road map for clarifying institutional roles and role of private sector at border posts as input to 2006 ADB TA prepared (also produced a draft Border Port Services Act as a framework for private sector participation); Interministerial Cooperation: (i) Reactivation of the Afghan Interministerial Technical Committee on Cross Border Facilitation, or providing this function within an Afghanistan Trade and Transport Facilitation Committee (target was not achieved; drafted Afghan Transit Transport Act to clarify the delineation of responsibilities among ministries in line with the Government’s Integrated Transit Transport Policy). Promotion of Regional Cooperation: (j) Active Afghan participation in Central and South Asia Trade and Transport Forum meetings (not mentioned in the TCR; but TA supported the Government’s preparation for different working groups and meetings organized by ADB under CAREC Program. 40577-012 Capacity Building for Not rated but Accomplished outputs not targeted in the Customs revenue TA outcomes were (4906) Customs and Trade overall rating TA: increases at a rate not achieved Facilitation is that at least meets because the TA unsuccessful (i) a background paper on the role of projected was not customs, challenges facing Afghan Government implemented as Customs, and possible solutions revenue targets. designed and explaining main challenges Afghanistan consequently did Customs Department faced and how Leakage decreases not produce all the five-year strategic plan coped with (no quantitative expected outputs. those challenges; (ii) a study of baseline data Afghanistan’s external trade to identify available). Consultant carried

64 Appendix 5

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging measures for export expansion; (iii) out ad hoc tasks papers regarding (a) the creation of a requested by the Tariff Research Unit for the purpose of Afghanistan monitoring trends in revenue collection Customs and the adoption of appropriate tariff Department not policy, (b) a plan for surveys of customs within the terms of offices for human resource planning, (c) reference. customs tariff policy advice on ad-hoc duty exemption to raw material imported for industries; (d) policy framework for granting of duty exemption to Government imports; and (e) provision of incentives to customs officers for good performance in enforcement work by creating a fund from the proceeds of sale of confiscated goods; and (iv) technical specifications of cargo handling equipment needed in different customs clearance stations procured on ADB loan. Sector: Health 36628 (9030) Primary Health Care Effective Community organization and support: Coverage of health Achievement of Partnership for the Poor Performance-based contracts with services. outcome was not NGOs issued by Ministry of Health; properly reported in NGOs performed their responsibilities Proportion of women the ICM. despite political and security conditions. and children Community Health Workers Program: attended by health Badakhshan 193 community health workers trained center and Province: 3 (of which 50% are women) and community health community health community health committees workers. centers and 2 basic health centers established and functional. Community share of Health Center Development: Building constructed. 37 drug funds reaches health posts construction, furnishing, staffing and 60%. provision of drugs were achieved. established. Mobile Clients reported satisfaction on quality of Standardized health team health services received. procedures for operated in remote Drug supply systems: Pooled drug contracting NGOs. areas. Community procurement system was not Health Committees established; NGOs are providing drugs established. of standard quality. Ghor Province: 2 community and 2 basic health centers constructed/ rehabilitated; 60 health posts constructed and 120 community

Appendix 5 65

Project No. Physical Outcomes Non-Physical Outcomes Effectiveness (Loan/Grant Project Name Physical Output Rating No.) Expected Actual/Emerging Expected Actual/Emerging health workers were trained. ADB = Asian Development Bank, ANDS = Afghanistan National Development Strategy, CCT-KM = circuit kilometer; CO2 = carbon dioxide, CPI = consumer price index, CPS = country partnership strategy, CSO = Central Statistics Organization, CSP = country strategy and program, CSPU = country strategy and program update, DABS = Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat, CDC = community development council, DMF = design and monitoring framework, DP = displaced person, DRRD = Department of Rural Rehabilitation and Development, GDP = gross domestic product, HIV/AIDS = human immunodeficiency virus /acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, ICE = Interministerial Commission for Energy, ICM = implementation completion memorandum, IMF = International Monetary Fund, IWRM = integrated water resource management, JFPR = Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction, km = kilometer, KPU = Kabul Polytechnic University, kV = kilovolt, kWh = kilowatt per hour, MAIL = Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, M&E = monitoring and evaluation, MEW = Ministry of Energy and Water, MFF = multitranche financing facility, MIGA = Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, MOT = Ministry of Transport, MOTCA = Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation, MPW = Ministry of Public Works, MRRD = Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development, MW = megawatt, NGO = nongovernment organization, NO2 = nitrogen dioxide, O&M = operation and maintenance, PCR = project completion report, PPTA = project preparatory technical assistance, PRG = political risk guarantee, PRSP = poverty reduction strategy paper, RBSC = Rural Business Support Centers, RCD = Road Construction Department, RRP = Report and Recommendation of President, SO2 = sulfur dioxide, SOE = state-owned enterprises, TA = technical assistance, TAR = technical assistance report, TCR = technical assistance completion report, TOR = terms of reference, UN = United Nations, VOC=vehicle operating cost. Sources: Project Completion Reports (PCR), Technical Assistance Completion Reports, Implementation Completion Memorandum, PCR Validation Reports and Project Completion Report, Back to Office Reports, and eOps.

66 Appendix 5

Table A5.3: Project Performance: Efficiency Rating

Project Cost Project No. ADB’s Business (Loan/Grant Project Name Efficiency Rating EIRR Project Implementation Issues Processes No.) Planned Actual ($million) ($million)

Sector: Energy

40043 Regional Power Efficient 32.3% (would have been 67.90 57.90 Loan closing was extended No issues (L2304/G0230/ Transmission substantially higher if due to failure to agree with mentioned on TA4909) Interconnection environmental benefits were terms of the ADB’s business included). intergovernmental power process. purchase agreement (condition for contract awards) and resettlement issues. Project closed more than 2 years later than expected. Loan required supplementary grant funding to be completed. 43497 Power Sector Master Not rated — 1.72 1.41 Implementation delay of over No issues (TA 7637/8475) Plan/Addendum to the a year due to recruitment mentioned on Power Sector Master issues (i.e., lack of qualified ADB’s business Plan proposals and unsuccessful process. contract negotiation) reduced consultant’s field time.

39402 Support to the Not rated — 2.00 1.36 Delays in recruiting the No issues (TA 4918) Interministerial energy commercial expert mentioned on Commission for Energy resulted in lack of ADB’s business coordination among team process. members. Instead of procuring individual consultants, recruitment of a firm would have facilitated better coordination and curtailed administrative delays. Unaddressed gaps in TA outputs and outcomes, coupled with employment of lesser man-months of consulting services due to delayed recruitment resulted in some 32% of unutilized funds.

Appendix 5 67

Project Cost Project No. ADB’s Business (Loan/Grant Project Name Efficiency Rating EIRR Project Implementation Issues Processes No.) Planned Actual ($million) ($million)

Sector: Transport

36553 Road Employment Less than efficient Not computed 27.8 25.11 Project faced substantial — (J9024/G0076) Project for Settlement costs adjustments and time and Integration of extensions. Returning Refugees and Displaced Persons 37075-013 Andkhoy-Qaisar Road Highly efficient Target: 19.1% 81.63 82.50 Government committed (but — (L2140) failed to provide) $18.6 Actual: 23.6 million as counterpart contribution to total civil works contract cost of $76.6 million. Gap was augmented through an MFF (Grant 0135). Government insistence, despite ADB repeated advice, on reducing the construction unit rate, which resulted in cost overruns. Difficult security conditions resulted in a delay of 2.5 years.

37136-013 Regional Airports Less than efficient Target: 22.5% 31.24 27.03 Cost of the incremental Use of (L2105) Rehabilitation Project administration and consulting International Civil Phase 1 Target after scope change: services sufficient. Securing Aviation 10.1% of additional grant funds Organization Actual: 11% enabled completion of standards and runways to international specifications standards. 3 years delay in saved airport completion. considerable time and effort, and enabled designs and tendering to proceed without the often laborious and time- consuming design and approval processes.

68 Appendix 5

Project Cost Project No. ADB’s Business (Loan/Grant Project Name Efficiency Rating EIRR Project Implementation Issues Processes No.) Planned Actual ($million) ($million)

37728-012 Emergency Road Less than efficient None computed 28.71 56.25 Original budget breakdown: Thorough (J9037) Rehabilitation (i) JFPR to provide $20 planning still million, and (ii) ADB to needed even in provide $8.707 million. Cost emergency overrun of $28 million projects. financed by ADB using reallocated funds from Loan 1997-AFG and 2-year time extensions reported. Cost overrun is due to design defects and significant price increases of oil and construction materials during project implementation.

39467-013 North-South Corridor Less than efficient Mazar-e-Sharif--Dar-i-Suf 140.90 175.13 Completion delayed due to: — (L2257/G0054/ Project road Target: 29.8%, harsh weather in the project G0135/J9097) Actual: 26.55% area, design changes, poor security, and issues in Bamyan-Yakawlang road administration, approval, and Target: 20.7%, disbursement processes. Actual: 17.79%

42533-022 Hairatan to Mazar-e- Highly efficient Target: 14.5% 165.00 155.54 Efficient planning and — (G0161) Sharif Railway management of construction, Actual: 15.89% together with enhanced ADB project supervision, expeditious approvals and release of payments resulted in the completion of project ahead of schedule.

42533-012 Railway Development Not rated Not applicable 1.90 1.58 — — (TA7259) Study

37083-012 Capacity Building for Not rated Not applicable 1.00 0.86 Experienced delay in — (TA4675) Road Sector Institutions implementation due to lack of capacity and initiatives of Ministry of Public Works.

37326-012 Road Rehabilitation and Not rated Not applicable 2.70 2.07 Experienced delays in — (TA4828) Capacity Building implementation due to Cluster security situation in Afghanistan.

Appendix 5 69

Project Cost Project No. ADB’s Business (Loan/Grant Project Name Efficiency Rating EIRR Project Implementation Issues Processes No.) Planned Actual ($million) ($million)

Sector: Agriculture and Natural Resources

38096 Balkh River Basin Water Less than efficient Not applicable 12.00 2.22 Undisbursed amount was Delays in (9060) Resources Management 78% (of $10 million grant). releasing grant funds affected No infrastructure performance. improvements were undertaken by the Project. This was not accomplished due to changed emphasis in project activities, delays in approval of changed activity schedule, and delays in implementation of essential preparatory work. 40586 Rural Business Support Efficient Not applicable 19.30 21.92 The economy of input The approval (9100) Project provision has been rated as process for core efficient as 26% of grant budget expense proceeds were used on items needs to be administrative and streamlined to consultancy purposes as allow the compared to the original implementation to allocation of 35%. be timely, procurement to be The productivity of inputs is done efficiently, considered high as the total and impact of the project's value subcontractors to chain activities on net income be paid based on of the Project beneficiaries their contract. was estimated at $7.3 million (with an 83% disbursement rate). The value added by the value chain activities will last for decades and continue to generate returns on investment. Initial implementation delays were caused by poor performance of consultant firm, weak capacity of Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock and Project Implementation Unit.

70 Appendix 5

Project Cost Project No. ADB’s Business (Loan/Grant Project Name Efficiency Rating EIRR Project Implementation Issues Processes No.) Planned Actual ($million) ($million)

36222-012 Rural Recovery through Less than efficient Not applicable 5.60 5.60 More than 2 years delayed None indicated in (9039) Community-Based during the initial phase of the report. Irrigation Rehabilitation project as there were concerns about recruitment of consultants, deteriorating security conditions, and underestimation of operational challenges. Startup delays and price escalation between the time of approval and implementation resulted in the reduction of subprojects from 120 to 75 (63%). 37046-013 Agriculture Sector Less than efficient Not applicable 55.00 56.50 Second tranche was delayed None indicated in (2083) Program for 3.5 years, because the the report. release conditions had not been complied with. Delays experienced may have been reduced if implementation arrangements as given in RRP had been put in place on time (i.e., appointment of program officers from each implementing agencies, appointment of program coordinator by Ministry of Finance (EA) and establishment of steering committee). 37713-012 Integrated Community Less than efficient Not applicable 3.46 1.65 Disbursement at completion Delay in approval (9038) Development in was 48%. of consultant’s Northern Afghanistan Administrative and contract variation consultancy costs increased contributed to the by 12% from $347,760 to delay in grant $412,285. closing. Significant delays during project start up led to change in design and scope. Startup delays had reduced relevance of the link to road project, experienced significant price escalation and cost increases, and shortened effective

Appendix 5 71

Project Cost Project No. ADB’s Business (Loan/Grant Project Name Efficiency Rating EIRR Project Implementation Issues Processes No.) Planned Actual ($million) ($million) implementation period. Implementation delays were due to recruitment issues, lack of an efficient financial management system, and absence of appropriate protocols for project fund flow and approvals, and changes in administrative procedures in 2007. 38221-012 Capacity Building for Not rated Not applicable 0.85 0.79 TA started nearly 1.5 years (TA 4483) Land Policy and after its approval due to Administration Reform delays in consultants' recruitment caused in part by the resignation and frequent changes of project officers. Minor changes on TA focus were necessary to adjust to the changes that had taken place during that period. 38252-012 Capacity Development Not rated Not applicable 0.76 0.72 Start-up delay was 1.3 years (TA 4716) for Irrigation and Water due to consultant recruitment Resources issues. Sector: Public Sector Management

38122-013 Fiscal Management and Less efficient Not applicable 55.00 51.39 Encountered delays due to — (L2215/G0030) Public Administration unexpected change to the Reform Program legal framework for civil (formerly Public Service service reform and capacity Delivery Reform constraints. Program) 37047-012 Poverty Assessment Not rated Not applicable 1.75 1.35 TA was extended by 41 — (TA4313) and Socioeconomic and months because of security Macroeconomic issues, difficulties in Statistical Capacity recruiting consultants, and Building time needed to close lapsed contracts.

37561-012 Security of ADB- Not rated Not applicable 0.99 0.91 Emergency Management — (TA4345) Financed Projects in Plan prepared in timely Afghanistan manner and disseminated to ADB, AFRM, Government and contractors. Risk assessment missions

72 Appendix 5

Project Cost Project No. ADB’s Business (Loan/Grant Project Name Efficiency Rating EIRR Project Implementation Issues Processes No.) Planned Actual ($million) ($million) regularly carried out. Weekly participation in the UN Security Management Team meetings provided critical information to understand the dynamic security environment and to ensure that contractors were informed of any potential threats to their projects.

40580-012 Support to the Not rated Not applicable 2.70 1.75 Delays and cost overrun TA’s pilot (TA4897) Afghanistan National encountered in implementing approaches on Development Strategy Component 1 due to new initiatives mismatch between training ensured success level and absorptive capacity in the long run. of Central Statistics Organization staff and the TA’s failure to limited capacity of AFRM on assess absorptive statistical activities and to capacity of target realign and better focus on institutions at operational activities. appraisal resulted in delays and cost overruns.

42089-012 Security Plan for Project TCR pending Not applicable 0.995 Pending TCR TA completion date extended — (TA7090) Implementation 4 times until June 2014. TA cost estimates increased.

Sector: Finance

37393 Private Sector and Less efficient Not applicable 60.00 58.30 Grant 0067 was fully — (G0067/G0068) Financial Market released without the need for Development Program extensions. There was less (G0067) and Supporting ADB support to Grant 0068 Private Sector and notwithstanding that funding Financial Market was still available and key Reforms Capacity program outputs and the two Building (G0068) outcomes had yet to be fully achieved by completion date.

38912-014 Afghanistan Investment Efficient Not applicable 5.00 2.50 $80.4 million, $20 million — (L2091) Guarantee Facility more than expected. Sector: Multisector

36231-013 Postconflict Multisector Efficient Not applicable 173.53 171.20 ADB support to the program Program was (L1954) Program was both flexible and highly rapidly prepared,

Appendix 5 73

Project Cost Project No. ADB’s Business (Loan/Grant Project Name Efficiency Rating EIRR Project Implementation Issues Processes No.) Planned Actual ($million) ($million) responsive. approved, signed and made effective, which suited Afghanistan’s post-conflict situation and demonstrated a highly flexible response on the part of ADB. Road component: 36673-013 Emergency Not rated RRP = 31.5% 165.74 142.64 Road component incurred — (L1997) Infrastructure PCR = 24% cost increases and delays. Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Power component’s output Power component: was allowed to operate with RRP = 26.8% defects. PCR = 16.07% Implementation of associated Gas component: Cancelled components financed by Irrigation component: Not other donors was significantly computed delayed. 37102-012 Kabul Air Quality Not rated Not applicable 0.45 0.38 ADB Controller’s Department — (TA4415) Management wrote off the net amount of $33,362.72 on 24 July 2009 as a supplier refused to refund the amount equivalent to undelivered equipment. Sector: Trade and Industry 4699 Building the Capacity of Not rated — 0.40 0.30 Closing was delayed by more None mentioned the Ministry of than a year due to the delay in the report. Commerce for Trade in submission of consultant’s and Transit Facilitation final report. Trade, transit, and customs are somewhat specialized areas, with Afghanistan Resident Mission and Central and West Asia Regional Department having no such expertise. As such, it was somewhat difficult to provide effective supervision and guidance to the TA consultants.

74 Appendix 5

Project Cost Project No. ADB’s Business (Loan/Grant Project Name Efficiency Rating EIRR Project Implementation Issues Processes No.) Planned Actual ($million) ($million) 40577-012 Capacity Building for Not rated but overall — $1.20 $0.17 Due to poor security None mentioned (4906) Customs and Trade rating is situation, only 1 out of the 4 in the report. Facilitation unsuccessful international experts was mobilized (i.e., customs and trade facilitation expert). Although outputs were provided at the request of the implementing agency with satisfactory quality, and to a degree, contributed to strengthening capacity of Afghanistan Customs Department, they were out of the original TA design, difficult to be integrated into an intended deliverable, and thus weakened the rationale of the TA. Sector: Health

36628 (9030) Primary Health Care Less than efficient — 3.0 2.8 Cost per capita was lower None mentioned Partnership for the Poor than similar projects financed in the report by other donors. The project faced cost adjustments and time extensions. ADB = Asian Development Bank, AFG = Afghanistan, AFRM = Afghanistan Resident Mission, EA = executing agency, EIRR = Economic Internal Rate of Return, JFPR = Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction, MFF = multitranche financing facility, PCR = Project Completion Report, RRP = Report and Recommendation of the President, TA = technical assistance, UN = United Nations. Sources: Project Completion Reports, Technical Assistance Completion Reports, Implementation Completion Memorandum, PCR Validation Reports and Project Completion Report, Back to Office Reports, and eOps.

Appendix 5 75

Table A5.4: Project Performance: Sustainability Rating Project No. Sustainability Financing and Operation and Adequacy of Risk (Loan/Grant Project Name Institutional Policy and Political FIRR Rating Maintenance Mitigation No.)

Sector: Energy

40043 Regional Power Less than Inadequate O&M financing. As of PCR, DABS As of PCR, government 42.1% (but Sustainability will (L2304/G0230/ Transmission likely remained institutionally support is required to allow should have also depend on the TA4909) Interconnection sustainable weak and required DABS to maintain electricity considered protection of asset extensive external support tariff at levels that provide distribution given the security in every aspect of the adequate O&M funding. costs) situation. power business. 43497 Power Sector Master Not rated Investment programming based — Afghanistan Government — — (TA 7637/8475) Plan/Addendum to the on both the sector plan and its officials and parliamentarians Power Sector Master addendum. endorsed the Master Plan at Plan the high-level inter- governmental presentation. 39402 Support to the Not rated ICE was not functional in June Institutional capacity is ICE and its sectoral sub- — — (TA 4918) Interministerial 2012 due to financing constraints developing. committees provide an Commission for Energy but resumed meetings in 2013 adequate forum for through ADB support. The coordination and discussions ongoing TA 8328 will ensure to map out sector priorities. capacity support to sustain ICE beyond 2014. Sector: Transport

36553 Road Employment Less likely Health care and education — Sustainability of project Not No specific (J9024/G0076) Project for Settlement sustainable services need continued impacts remains volatile to computed. mitigation and Integration of government support. In addition, overall economic measures for Returning Refugees and the sustainability of road development and security in identified risks. Displaced Persons rehabilitation investments the project area. depends on timely development and implementation of proper road network maintenance strategy and programs.

37075-013 Andkhoy-Qaisar Road Less likely ADB and other donors agreed to Given the government’s As of PCR, government Not A more (L2140) sustainable for maintain the constructed roads. financial constraints, needs to set up appropriate computed. comprehensive road In the long term, creation of off- continued earmarking of operating policies for assessment of risks component budget revenue system (toll government funds for independent road fund for could have led to collection, user charges, etc.) for maintenance may not be road maintenance. appropriate Likely road maintenance is critical. possible. mitigating sustainable for measures. capacity building component

76 Appendix 5

Project No. Sustainability Financing and Operation and Adequacy of Risk (Loan/Grant Project Name Institutional Policy and Political FIRR Rating Maintenance Mitigation No.)

37136-013 Regional Airports Likely User charges are collected. MOTCA has capacity to To ensure sustainability, Target: 5% Political situation (L2105) Rehabilitation Project sustainable Designs for civil works ensured manage the civil aviation close monitoring and remained stable Phase 1 longer life cycles of physical sector. preventive maintenance Target after during project structures. require continuous funding major scope period. and technical backing. change: Government must continue 3.4% to charge users and support Actual: the project outputs, as 4.49% agreed. However, the government is facing severe shortage in funding for O&M and has no concrete plan to negotiate the problem.

37728-012 Emergency Road Less likely Dependent on Government — Government must continue Not Project (J9037) Rehabilitation sustainable allocation. allocating sufficient funds computed. implemented on for routine and periodic account of conflict maintenance and axle load and security. controls, as indicated in the project design and Loan Agreement.

39467-013 North-South Corridor Less likely Fuel tax and government MOF and MPW could not Government cancelled Not Mitigation (L2257/G0054/ Project sustainable allocation on O&M not sufficient. agree on how to collect the tolling policy in 2010. computed. measures appear G0135/J9097) toll. Ongoing work to Instead, collected tax on to be insufficient establish an Afghanistan fuel imports (through the even if at onset road authority. Transitional Law on Toll). project recognized the volatile political and security situation.

42533-022 Hairatan to Mazar-e- Likely Outsourced the O&M of the Establishment and Steps taken to deepen Target: 4.5% Government (G0161) Sharif Railway sustainable railway facility through a strengthening of the corporatization and established the performance-based O&M Afghanistan Railway privatization in the road and Actual: Afghan Public contract. Authority. This will increase rail subsectors, and improve 8.05% Protection Force to the government’s capacity sector performance in O&M, serve as an for planning, development, safety, and project independent and and management of the management. dedicated security railway sector. force to safeguard infrastructure projects, including road and rail assets.

Appendix 5 77

Project No. Sustainability Financing and Operation and Adequacy of Risk (Loan/Grant Project Name Institutional Policy and Political FIRR Rating Maintenance Mitigation No.)

42533-012 Railway Development Not rated Not applicable — Recommended approach of Not Risks were noted in (TA7259) Study study adopted by applicable DMF but no government. adequate mitigation measures identified.

37083-012 Capacity Building for Not rated Not applicable Lack of capacity and — Not Not discussed in (TA4675) Road Sector Institutions initiatives of MPW indicate applicable TAR; TCR, that improvements in however, noted financial management unforeseen project areas are unlikely to be delay risks due to sustainable. insecurity and limited capacity of MPW.

37326-012 Road Rehabilitation and Not rated Not applicable Without further support, — Not Risks were noted in (TA4828) Capacity Building strengthened capacities of applicable DMF but no Cluster MPW and MOT may not be adequate mitigation sustainable. measures identified in TAR or implemented.

Sector: Agriculture and Natural Resources

38096 Balkh River Basin Water Unsustainable — Implementation of a proper Sustainability of project — — (9060) Resources Management exit strategy was not activities has been achieved due to further adversely affected by the delays in implementation of reluctance of activities, non-availability of implementing agency and counterparts, and low interest its provincial departments and involvement of the water to appreciate the need for management department. capacity and institution building. Important ongoing programs (pilot program for WUA Within pilot irrigation development) could not be areas for WUA completed because development, requested extension of 11 enforcement of water months was not granted. allocations has been inconsistent, with influential and strong individuals threatening or paying to keep the status quo, while government agencies were too weak to enforce rules.

78 Appendix 5

Project No. Sustainability Financing and Operation and Adequacy of Risk (Loan/Grant Project Name Institutional Policy and Political FIRR Rating Maintenance Mitigation No.)

40586 Rural Business Support Not rated All value chains deemed Capacity building exceeded Stakeholder ownership — Focused on areas with (9100) Project financially sustainable. targets and cooperatives are and participation is high fewer security risks deemed sustainable in terms and rated relevant. (Balkh, Bamyan, Producer cooperatives generated of financial and organization Nangarhar). income by renting out farm management. Constraints in the growth implements and this was used to in oil and wool/carpet Activities in Kandahar sustain operations and invest in Participation of cooperatives value chain: fragmented were put on hold due other income generating in the implementation of the carpet industry and the to security concerns. activities. equity scheme facilitated their low market coordination empowerment and improved in the value chain; lack of transparency of the scheme. integration of technology and market development to improve oilseed and edible oil production. 36222-012 Rural Recovery through Likely 2 years after project completion, Capacity of local institutions Community participation — 2009 flooding to (9039) Community-Based sustainable local CDCs were able to was strengthened as (identification, selection damaged infrastructure Irrigation Rehabilitation undertake O&M of the 74 villagers, local CDCs and and implementation of in 6 sites. subprojects (i.e., minor provincial and district rural subprojects were infrastructure maintenance). rehabilitation and executed at the local development officials were level) ensured a high involved in subproject level of ownership. identification and implementation. CDCs receive continued support in the wider decentralization process in Afghanistan. 37046-013 Agriculture Sector Likely — Program had an important Program established a — — (2083) Program sustainable impact on key ministries and conducive environment institutions in the sector and that has the commitment stimulated ongoing changes of the ministries involved in institutional and (demonstrated by their organizational arrangements willingness to put in place that are leading to more the necessary legislation effective and efficient for implementation of agencies. policies and institutional arrangements). Private sector has been supported with training for Sustainability dependent business planning, on continued investment management, and marketing. in the sector and the continuation of an open and free economy that encourages private sector investment.

Appendix 5 79

Project No. Sustainability Financing and Operation and Adequacy of Risk (Loan/Grant Project Name Institutional Policy and Political FIRR Rating Maintenance Mitigation No.)

37713-012 Integrated Community Likely MRRD provided government There was no clear exit Project ownership was — — (9038) Development in Northern sustainable funds to complete subprojects strategy. relatively strong at Afghanistan under the project. MRRD. Some activities remained unfinished without a clear roadmap on how to secure project investments and achievements. While the staff were capable of implementing the project, they only worked part time as they lacked salary support and were committed to nonproject tasks at MRRD. 38221-012 Capacity Building for Not rated No donors could be formally Government training of This programs identified — — (TA 4483) Land Policy and identified to finance the program trainers were available to through the TA is Administration Reform proposed by the TA and replicate scale up the ADAMAP. supported by a land the community-based land policy approved by the administration approach on a The TA undertook capacity Cabinet in 2007. broader scale to ensure that the assessments of concerned TA results will be fully exploited. institutions and proposed capacity building recommendations to be implemented together with institutional reform. Yet, the inputs required to achieve the proposed changes in mandate and approach were clearly beyond the TA capacity. 38252-012 Capacity Development for Likely MEW secured additional funding Project Implementation Unit Assessed as sustainable — — (TA 4716) Irrigation and Water sustainable from the World Bank to sustain became high profile and an due to Government’s Resources the work of the Project important section in MEW. By continued support for the Implementation Unit started by end of 2008, it was Project Implementation the TA. responsible for monitoring Unit. and administering 18 consultancy and civil works contracts with a combined value of about $50 million. Sector: Public Sector Management

38122-013 Fiscal Management and Less likely Not applicable Recognized capacity Local absorptive capacity Not Risks were identified (L2215/G0030) Public Administration sustainable constraints. New approaches needs to be balanced applicable but mitigation Reform Program to capacity development against the skills transfer measures appear to (formerly Public Service needed. needed in government be insufficient. Delivery Reform agencies to effectively

80 Appendix 5

Project No. Sustainability Financing and Operation and Adequacy of Risk (Loan/Grant Project Name Institutional Policy and Political FIRR Rating Maintenance Mitigation No.) Program) implement reform.

37047-012 Poverty Assessment Not rated Not applicable Sustainability hinged on — Not — (TA4313) and Socioeconomic and trained staff remaining at the applicable Macroeconomic CSO. There have been Statistical Capacity instances where trained staff Building have been lost to international organizations operating in Kabul.

37561-012 Security of ADB- Not rated Not applicable Master emergency TCR indicated ongoing Not Mitigation efforts were (TA4345) Financed Projects in management plan available risk assessments in applicable noted in the PCR, Afghanistan to government. regions where ADB e.g., training of staff projects are being from ADB, implemented and ongoing government, and participation in UN and contractors on other pertinent security security in the field, coordination bodies. communications, first aid, IED and mine awareness, surviving hostage situation, among others; and continuous/ regular coordination with development partners in the field.

40580-012 Support to the Not rated Future or long term (follow-up) Outcome achieved will be — Not Not explicitly (TA4897) Afghanistan National support to capacity development sustainable as long as trained applicable discussed in TCR. Development Strategy not in place but recommended as staff remain at CSO. follow-up action.

42089-012 Security Plan for Project TCR pending Not applicable Proper funding of Security Depends in great part on Not TCR pending (TA7090) Implementation Unit at ADB resident mission proper security applicable in Afghanistan and continued environment. cooperation with United Nations security staff.

Sector: Finance

37393 Private Sector and Less likely Not applicable — Policy reforms initiated Not Possible risks to (G0067/G0068) Financial Market sustainable under the program applicable implementation were Development Program generate new discussed in the (G0067) and Supporting implementation DMF/RRP. Insufficient Private Sector and challenges and problems discussion in the PCR Financial Market for which new capacity to establish the

Appendix 5 81

Project No. Sustainability Financing and Operation and Adequacy of Risk (Loan/Grant Project Name Institutional Policy and Political FIRR Rating Maintenance Mitigation No.) Reforms Capacity has to be developed. adequacy of Building (G0068) Therefore, sustainability mitigation measures. depends on further development partner assistance to (i) implement complementary reforms, and (ii) provide capacity development in the new institutions created.

38912-014 Afghanistan Investment Less likely Not applicable — Sustainability is Not Possible risks to (L2091) Guarantee Facility sustainable contingent with stable applicable implementation were security in Afghanistan. discussed in the DMF/RRP. Insufficient discussion in the PCR to establish the adequacy of mitigation measures.

Sector: Multisector

36231-013 Postconflict Multisector Sustainable Not applicable The Government exhibited The Government has Not — (L1954) Program leadership and a deep undertaken many applicable commitment at the outset, subsequent measures to and continued to pursue its widen and deepen its reform agenda during the overall reform agenda, design and implementation of with continued support by the Postconflict Multisector multilateral and bilateral Program. development partners. Program promoted sustainability by supporting cost recovery and O&M in the transport and energy sectors.

36673-013 Emergency Not rated Road component: Government — Road component: Road Appears to be (L1997) Infrastructure allocates funds but plans to Government will need to component inadequate as Rehabilitation and establish an independent road continue allocating funds : None evidenced by Reconstruction fund for maintenance. for maintenance unless it computed. cancelled or not establishes the implemented Power component: DA independent road fund. Power components and Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat component subcomponents. (DABS) under MEW is Power component: : RRP = responsible for O&M, but with Profitability not ensured; 15%; PCR few staff and inadequate O&M still highly reliant on = 3.32%. capacity. donor assistance and government subsidies. Gas

82 Appendix 5

Project No. Sustainability Financing and Operation and Adequacy of Risk (Loan/Grant Project Name Institutional Policy and Political FIRR Rating Maintenance Mitigation No.) component Gas component: Cancelled. Gas component: : Cancelled. Irrigation component: O&M is the Cancelled. responsibility of water users. Irrigation component: Irrigation Assumes that irrigation component structures will be : None sustained as these are computed important to farmers and the long tradition of communities to maintain these facilities. 37102-012 Kabul Air Quality Less To implement the AGM strategy — While satisfied with the Not Risk assessment did (TA4415) Management sustainable and policy recommendations TA's results and their applicable not anticipate factors provided under the TA, usefulness, Government that delayed the Government needs to seek has yet to fully adopt or adoption or financial support. apply them. application of TA results. Sector: Industry and Trade

4699 Building the Capacity of Not rated Completion of the TA was facilitated TA was inadequately — — — the Ministry of by an agreement between ADB and integrated into Commerce for Trade the World Bank through the latter’s ADB’s regional/sub- and Transit Facilitation Emergency Customs Modernization regional program per and Trade Facilitation Project in 2009 project Afghanistan. completion report. 40577-012 Capacity Building for Not rated but — — — — — (4906) Customs and Trade overall rating Facilitation is unsuccessful

Sector: Health

36628 (9030) Primary Health Care Not rated USAID and EC to finance recurrent Project’s exit — — Although security risk Partnership for the Poor costs including salaries of health strategy was was not explicitly workers after ADB ceased project satisfactory. discussed at design, financing. high level of community Community involvement assured Communities agreed to contribute to members trained security of project recurrent costs to maintain some under the project; infrastructure and project activities. continued support continuing services. for community-based activities. ADB = Asian Development Bank, CDC = community development council, CSO = Central Statistics Organization, DABS = Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat, DMF = design and monitoring framework, EC = European Commission, FIRR = Financial Internal Rate of Return, ICE = Interministerial Commission for Energy, IED = improvised explosive device, MEW = Ministry of Energy and Water, MOF = Ministry of Finance, MOT = Ministry of Transport, MOTCA = Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation, MPW = Ministry of Public Works, MRRD = Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development, O&M = operation and maintenance, PCR = project completion report, RRP = Report and Recommendation of the President, TA = technical assistance, TAR = technical assistance report, TCR = technical assistance completion report, UN = United Nations, USAID = United States Agency for International Development, WUA = water user association. Sources: Project Completion Reports (PCR), Technical Assistance Completion Reports, Implementation Completion Memorandum, PCR Validation Reports and Project Completion Report, Back to Office Reports, and eOps.

Appendix 5 83

Table A5.5: Project Performance: Development Impact Development Project No. Development Impact Contribution to Cross- Project Name Impact Unintended Impacts (Loan/Grant No.) Cutting Results Rating Expected Actual Sector: Energy

40043 (L2304/G0230/ Regional Power Highly satisfactory Mutually beneficial power Electricity trade with Regional trade and Connection of 15,000 new TA4909) Transmission trade between Tajikistan and Tajikistan provided more cooperation. industrial and commercial users. Interconnection1 Afghanistan by reliable electricity to June 2009. 760,000 household in Kabul (of which 225,000 are new consumers). 43497 Power Sector Not rated Increase in indigenous generation The power sector master A significant benefit of — (TA 7637/8475) Master from about 500 MW in 2009 to plan currently facilitates the proposed Plan/Addendum to 1,000 MW in 2014. investment programming to transmission the Power Sector achieve the impact. development is that Master Plan Increase in regional electricity trade Afghanistan will be able from 300 GWh in 2009 to 1,000 to take value from its GWh in 2013. strategic location and transfer power from energy-rich Central Asia to power- poor Pakistan. 39402 Support to the Not rated Progress toward or achievement of Indicators are too ambitious (TA 4918) Interministerial ANDS goals: By 2010, access to given the TA scope. Commission for electricity in at least 65% of Energy households in major urban areas, at Limited achievement of least 90% of nonresidential outcomes would reduce its establishments in major urban impact on the ANDS goals areas, and at least 25% of for the sector. households in rural areas. Developed strategy for the development and use of renewable energies by end 2007. By 2010, at least 75% of the costs recovered from users connected to the national power grid. Sector: Transport

36553 Road Employment Likely significant Percentage of population below ICM reported that project — — (J9024/G0076) Project for Settlement poverty line decreased from 80% to outcomes in terms of and Integration of at least 70% by 2007. poverty reduction and Returning Refugees settlement of returning and Displaced refugees were very positive, Persons but cannot be wholly attributable to project.

84 Appendix 5

Development Project No. Development Impact Contribution to Cross- Project Name Impact Unintended Impacts (Loan/Grant No.) Cutting Results Rating Expected Actual

37075-013 (L2140) Andkhoy-Qaisar Not rated 15% increase in per capita income in Progress made but no — — Road the project area over 3 years; 10% evidence of achievement as reduction in poverty incidence in the of PCR. project area.

37136-013 (L2105) Regional Airports Likely significant Within 3 years of project completion: While the PCR noted the Positive social impact — Rehabilitation Project project’s likely contribution by facilitating year- Phase 1 (a) 50% decrease in narcotics to impact in view of round air travel cultivation in the project area; achieved outcome results, services to 2 million (b) completion of disarmament of this CPSFR finds weak beneficiaries. regional warlords; and connection between the measures of impact and the Helps connect regions (c) reintegration of war combatants, project. to main cities and refugees, and internally displaced economic centers, and persons in the project area. improve government service delivery to remote, neglected, conflict-affected regions. 37728-012 (J9037) Emergency Road Likely significant (a) Reduction of travel time and (a) Reduced travel time and Indications of economic Has potential to promote Rehabilitation transportation costs of agricultural cost of transporting activities; no data on international trade and transit. and industrial products; products; social impacts (access to social services). (b) Increased economic activities. (b) Opened up trade and commerce opportunities. 39467-013 North-South Corridor Likely significant (a) 10% decrease in poverty Although still early to arrive Positive socio- May enhance region's national (L2257/G0054/ Project incidence; at conclusive assessment at economic impact is and international trade and G0135/J9097) time of PCR: expected as almost economic opportunities. (b) 50% increase in production and 90% of people in the trade; (a) 10% decrease in poverty project area are incidence is less likely to be farmers. (c) 50% increase in use of transport achieved; services. (b) 50% increase in production and trade is likely to be achieved; and (c) 50% increase in use of transport services is likely to be achieved. 42533-022 (G0161) Hairatan to Mazar-e- Likely significant (a) Increase in trade between (a) Value of trade between Project has positive .— Sharif Railway Afghanistan and Uzbekistan to $300 Afghanistan and Uzbekistan socioeconomic million in 2015 from $170 million in was $732 million in 2011– impacts, e.g., provided 2008; 2012; boost to regional trade; promoted better access (b) Increase in Afghanistan's total (b) Value of Afghanistan’s to markets, economic trade to $5 billion in 2015 from $3.5 total trade was $6.77 billion centers, and social billion in 2008. in 2011–2012. services; and improved the movement of humanitarian

Appendix 5 85

Development Project No. Development Impact Contribution to Cross- Project Name Impact Unintended Impacts (Loan/Grant No.) Cutting Results Rating Expected Actual assistance.

42533-012 Railway Development Not rated (a) Contribute to sustainable Expected impacts were — — (TA7259) Study economic growth and poverty achieved. reduction in Afghanistan; (b) promote regional cooperation through intra- and interregional trade along Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation corridors 3 and 6; and (c) boost Afghanistan’s economic competitiveness and all -year accessibility to its neighbors. 37083-012 Capacity Building for Not rated (a) Establishment and maintenance (a) Assessed to be — — (TA4675) Road Sector of a road database of regional and ineffective; Institutions national highways including road conditions; (b) No update on second impact. (b) Zero road defects within the period of defects liability stated by contractor. 37326-012 Road Rehabilitation Not rated (a) Economic and social Not discussed in TCR. — — (TA4828) and Capacity Building development promoted and poverty Cluster reduced; (b) Road project management and procurement improved; and (c) Transport service operations improved. Sector: Agriculture and Natural Resources

38096 Balkh River Basin Unsatisfactory Reduced poverty in the Balkh river Not likely to make any — — (9060) Water Resources basin. contribution to sector Management improvement since envisaged activities were not implemented.

86 Appendix 5

Development Project No. Development Impact Contribution to Cross- Project Name Impact Unintended Impacts (Loan/Grant No.) Cutting Results Rating Expected Actual

40586 Rural Business Likely satisfactory Reduce rural poverty by creating Impact evaluation at Improved livelihood — (9100) Support Project sustainable income generating completion did not measure participation of women opportunities for rural and farm performance against the key as they comprise most families. performance indicators. weavers in the wool and carpet value chain. Impact is most significant in potato value chain: increased potato productivity, storage efficiency, and income, organized 8 producers cooperative that generated income and was sustainable, and increased net income of producers of over $5 million in 2011. Edible oil value chain: Increased area planted with oil crops (mostly cotton) and crop yields, linked producers with edible oil processors and organized 12 oil crop producer cooperatives that generated income and were sustainable, increased net income of producers by $1.8 million in 2011. Wool and carpet value chain: increased productivity and net income from wool spinning, improved carpet designs and increased profitability of carpet weaving, increased net income of spinners and weavers by $400,000 during project implementation. 36222-012 (9039) Rural Recovery Not rated Contribute to the reduction of Not reported in the ICM. — — through Community- widespread poverty in more Based Irrigation vulnerable, low food security areas in Rehabilitation the north of Afghanistan. 37046-013 (2083) Agriculture Sector Less than Per capita incomes reach levels of It is unlikely that per capita Structural — Program satisfactory neighboring countries within 5 years. incomes will reach the levels improvements in of neighboring countries environmental Agricultural exports restored to levels within target period. protection have been of 20 years ago as percentage of established. GDP within 10 years. While agricultural growth has taken place, it varied Irrigation efficiency levels reach 40% from year to year, and it is

Appendix 5 87

Development Project No. Development Impact Contribution to Cross- Project Name Impact Unintended Impacts (Loan/Grant No.) Cutting Results Rating Expected Actual within 10 years. not possible to attribute growth directly to the program. Exports (including carpets) decreased from 5.3% in 2004 (as a % of GDP) to 4.7% in 2008. Without addressing irrigation, which is not part of the program, it is difficult to see how agricultural growth will be achieved. 37713-012 (9038) Integrated Less than 15% increase in income of the Measurement of — — Community satisfactory poorest households in the project achievement is challenging Development in area by June 2015. as no baseline was Northern Afghanistan established during project 10% decrease in the incidence of implementation. diseases due to malnutrition and unsafe drinking water by June 2007. Key performance indicator not established at completion. More than 60% increase in the consumption of nutritious vegetables in 5 CDC Joint Agriculture subprojects and about 15- 20% increase in 2 villages in Hazrat-e-Sultan. 38221-012 Capacity Building for Not rated Foreign direct investment (stock) None reported in the ICM. — — (TA 4483) Land Policy and reaching 5% of GDP within 10 years. Administration Reform Effective resolution mechanisms for land disputes established within 5 years. Violent land disputes virtually eliminated within 7 years. All farm households obtaining titles to their land within 10 years. 38252-012 Capacity Not rated Increase in number and timely PIU is an important section Improved donor TA had an indirect although (TA 4716) Development for implementation of irrigation and in the ministry and is coordination. important contribution to Irrigation and Water water resources projects with less administering contracts improving the Integrated Water Resources reliance on contracted project amounting to $50 million. Resource Management management support by the end of framework. the TA.

Sector: Public Sector Management

88 Appendix 5

Development Project No. Development Impact Contribution to Cross- Project Name Impact Unintended Impacts (Loan/Grant No.) Cutting Results Rating Expected Actual

38122-013 Fiscal Management Not rated Strengthen public finances through Not measured during — — (L2215/G0030) and Public targeted assistance to improve completion. Administration budget programming, resource Reform Program mobilization, develop the civil (formerly Public service, and strengthen monitoring of Service Delivery public finances. Reform Program) 37047-012 Poverty Assessment Not rated Government, international, and non- No evidence of progress on — A new statistical law was drafted (TA4313) and Socioeconomic government agencies, increasingly impact in the TCR. and embodied best practice and and Macroeconomic use statistical data for planning and emphasized the autonomy of Statistical Capacity monitoring purposes. CSO. Building 37561-012 Security of ADB- Not rated Assist the Government in enabling Expertise provided to the — Critical awareness and (TA4345) Financed Projects in the necessary security to the Government for planning knowledge to assist project Afghanistan contractors, consulting firms, and and improving the security implementation under the personnel working in the projects measures under ADB- difficult and changing conditions financed by ADB. financed projects. in Afghanistan provided through training of staff from ADB, government, and contractors on security in the field, communications, first aid, IED and mine awareness, surviving hostage situation, among others. 40580-012 Support to the Not rated (a) ANDS has a strong poverty Not discussed in TCR. — — (TA4897) Afghanistan National reduction focus; Development Strategy (b) Anticorruption is mainstreamed into ANDS and a stand-alone anticorruption policy implemented.

42089-012 Security Plan for TCR pending Establish a framework for security TCR pending — — (TA7090) Project that Implementation (a) addresses the challenges of working in the difficult environment of Afghanistan, and (b) enables projects of the relevant organizations to be implemented in as safe a manner as possible. Sector: Finance

37393 Private Sector and Not rated (a) Sustainable and stable GDP (a) Target achieved. GDP — — (G0067/G0068) Financial Market growth (from 8% in 2005 to 10% per growth between 2006 and Development annum until 2011); and 2010 averaged around Program (G0067) 10.9%; and Supporting (b) Lower unemployment rate (3.6% Private Sector and in 2005). (b) Data were not available at completion; recent figures

Appendix 5 89

Development Project No. Development Impact Contribution to Cross- Project Name Impact Unintended Impacts (Loan/Grant No.) Cutting Results Rating Expected Actual Financial Market however, reflected increase Reforms Capacity in unemployment between Building (G0068) 2010-2013.

38912-014 Afghanistan Not rated (a) Increase in private sector Project mobilized $108.6 — — (L2091) Investment investment and employment; million in foreign direct Guarantee Facility investment and created 850 (b) Medium-term fiscal and jobs. socioeconomic planning targets. Sector: Multisector

36231-013 Postconflict Not rated Well-defined public sector role, Program was part of an A study was completed — (L1954) Multisector Program policy and planning capacity, and overall reform agenda so it to prepare procedures institutional capability. may be difficult to fully to enforce agreed-on isolate and quantify its standards that create impact. Program may have efficient and reliable contributed to several key energy systems and achievements in GDP, incorporates gender, inflation rate, budget deficit, environmental, and and social indicators. involuntary resettlement objectives. 36673-013 Emergency Not rated (a) Increase in GDP per capita; (a) Directly improved the — — (L1997) Infrastructure lives of about 9 million Rehabilitation and (b) Percentage of population below people living within and Reconstruction poverty line decreased. around the project areas in seven provinces, including Kabul—2 million people in provinces along the road, 60,000 electricity contracts with 0.5 million users, and 240,000 electricity contracts in Kabul with more than 2 million users; (b) Substantial poverty reduction impacts reported on farmers in the downstream areas of the irrigation canals. 37102-012 Kabul Air Quality Not rated Ambient air quality meets World Not discussed in TCR. — — (TA4415) Management Health Organization standards. Sector: Industry and Trade

4699 Building the Capacity Increased trade with Not reported in TCR — — of the Ministry of neighboring countries.

90 Appendix 5

Development Project No. Development Impact Contribution to Cross- Project Name Impact Unintended Impacts (Loan/Grant No.) Cutting Results Rating Expected Actual Commerce for Trade and Transit Increased transit trade via Facilitation Afghanistan. 40577-012 (4906) Capacity Building for Not rated but Trade in licit commodities with Not likely to be achieved as outputs — — Customs and Trade overall rating is neighboring countries and outcomes were not achieved. Facilitation unsuccessful increases. Transit trade via Afghanistan increases. Sector: Health

36628 (9030) Primary Health Care Child mortality reduced by 30% Not reported in ICM. Women participation in Partnership for the in 3 years. the provision of health Poor services was ensured 80% of the poor have access to through selection and quality care. training of female community health workers; 50% of community health workers trained were female. ADB = Asian Development Bank, ANDS = Afghanistan National Development Strategy, CPSFR = country partnership strategy final review, CSO = Central Statistics Organization, GDP = gross domestic product, ICM = Implementation Completion Memorandum, IED = improvised explosive device, PCR = project completion report, PIU = project implementation unit, TA = technical assistance. Sources: Project Completion Reports, Technical Assistance Completion Reports, Implementation Completion Memorandum, PCR Validation Reports and Project Completion Report, Back to Office Reports, and eOps.

Appendix 6 91

PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT OF ONGOING PROJECTS AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, 2009 TO MID-2015

Table A6.1: Project Performance: Relevance Rating

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations (Loan/Grant No.) Rating Description in Design

Sector: Energy

37078-013 Power Transmission Likely Responded to sector needs and Technical design was not consistent Yes. Intended to benefit Design considered risks in (2165/G0004) and Distribution relevant country demands, formed part of the with the expected outcome of the about 1.2 million people security, implementation Project Government’s power master plan, project (design capacity of who are largely poor capacity, investment and was consistent with the distribution lines are inadequate to (90,700 households). requirements, and institutions. Government’s policy of providing support 74,200 customer service Provision of electrification reliable power supply to all Afghans. connections). kits to poor households. Kit users were to have immediate access to electricity, with a flexible payment option levied through the kit tariff (repayment over a period rather than up front). 42094-062 (9128) Development of Mini- Likely Consistent with Government’s Design appropriately considered Yes. Included a component Security costs included in the Hydropower in relevant1 priorities and ADB's country institutional capacity development on alternative livelihood appropriate project components. Badakhshan and programs. both at the national and community activities during the day- Bamyan Provinces levels. time (i.e., off-peak hours). Complements with other ADB supported energy operations as this Complemented infrastructure Provision of cheap energy would supply electricity to isolated investment with economic for the poor. population that could not be reached opportunities for the poor. by the northeast power system. Project timeline did not consider difficulty in accessing site during winter months and DMF failed to provide the baseline from which target indicators could be measured. 46392-001 North-South Power Likely Identified in the Afghanistan Power Designed to connect upstream None. Has built in security provisions in (0374/0375) Transmission relevant Sector Master Plan and in the power generation and power project design and financing. Enhancement Project National Energy Supply Program as transmission and downstream power central to the envisaged regional transmission and distribution power trade and Afghanistan’s projects. important future role in it as an energy resource corridor connecting DMF shows clarity of the results link Central Asia’s power systems with its (i.e., statements and indicators). own and those of South Asia. 42094-012/022 MFF Energy Sector Likely Consistent with national and sector Programmatic approach deemed Yes. Baharak hydropower Design considered the following (MFF Development relevant strategies and finances medium-term appropriate as it provides flexibility, (off grid) will service risks: delay in DABS 0026/G0134) Investment- Tranche investment programs of the sector. lowers cost, provides for well-defined isolated rural population. restructuring, insufficient power 1 subsequent tranches, focuses more imports, and reversal of policy Consistent with ADB’s strategy for the External monitoring will be

92 Appendix 6

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations (Loan/Grant No.) Rating Description in Design

country articulated in CSPU 2006- on execution, capacity and reforms carried out twice a year directions, inadequate project 2008 and CPS 2009-2013. (since analytical work is front and will assess the status management and continued loaded), complements physical of vulnerable groups security risk. Consistent with national and sector investments with advisory, and affected by the project, strategies and finances medium-term closely links actions among such as households investment programs of the sector. development partners. headed by women, disabled and/or elderly and poor families. 42094-032 MFF Energy Sector Likely Consistent with national and sector Variation on the location of Yes. Pro-poor strategies Despite recognizing the security (0184/PPTA 7289) Development relevant strategies and finances medium-term substation prevented significant identified at the onset. risks, project failed to consider Investment- Tranche investment programs of the sector. impact on resettlement. security costs in the project 2 (Kabul Distribution design at the onset. Network Consistent with ADB’s strategy for the Rehabilitation country articulated in CSPU 2006- Later on added as a response to Project) 2008 and CPS 2009-2013. deteriorating security situation. Security plan updated and discussed with APPF and local government. 42094-042 MFF Energy Sector Likely Consistent with national and sector Includes components to improve and None. While there is no Engaged security services for (0280/0281/ 0282) Development relevant strategies for 2008-2020. expand Gereshk distribution system component or indicator project implementation. But Investment- Tranche (Helmand) and strengthen DABS directly related to inclusion, agreement with APPF could not 3 (Gereshk Electricity Consistent with ADB’s CPS 2009- operational capacity. PFR indicated that project be made operational until July Services 2013 which identifies the expects to reduce load of 2015. Improvement Project) rehabilitation and upgrading of DMF hierarchy of results appropriate women and girls existing infrastructure as priority in and baseline figures from which to traditionally responsible for the energy sector. measure achievement provided. collecting firewood and Consistent with ADB’s Strategy 2020 provide them with and Energy Policy (2009) in opportunity to become promoting inclusive growth, energy more involved in social and security, and supporting energy productive activities. efficiency and renewable energy. Female family members could have access for more information and children will be able to study at longer hour at home. 42094-052 MFF Energy Sector Likely Consistent with Afghanistan Power Comprises a transmission subproject Yes. Adopted pro poor Demining and security costs (0332) Development relevant Sector Master Plan. allowing Turkmenistan to supply the strategies at the onset. In integrated in design. Investment- Tranche North West of Afghanistan while a order to specifically 4 (Grid Development In line with ADB's CPS 2009–2013 for distribution subproject allows two address the needs of the & Distribution Afghanistan that prioritizes regions south of Kabul to be poor, the project includes a Expansion Project) infrastructure development and electrified and connected to the distribution component Central Asia Regional Economic Afghanistan grid. with new connections to Cooperation (CAREC) strategy, 20,000 households in Pul- which promotes regional cooperation DMF results and indicators are e-Alam and Gardez. This and energy trade. mixed up particularly for outcomes will bring electrification and impact. Complements with USAID financed rates in these cities to substations in Pul-e-Alam and approximately 90%, which will provide the access to

Appendix 6 93

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations (Loan/Grant No.) Rating Description in Design

Gardez. electricity for many poor residents in these two cities. 42094-075 MFF Energy Sector Likely Identified as part of the top priority Project is the first step to cater to None. Security and demining included (0377) Development relevant investment by Afghanistan's power expanded power imports and in the project cost. Investment- Tranche master plan study, as well as the synchronization. The proposed 5 (Dashte Alwan country's national energy supply substation will house the future A conflict sensitive approach will 500kV substation) program. converter station hub and the be adopted in implementing the expansion plan envisaged under four project. In line with ADB's CPS 2009–2013. stages to include in-feeds from Although the financial Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and management and governance installation of additional convertor risks are substantial, DABS is Included in Afghanistan’s COBP, stations during 2020-2032. addressing these weaknesses by 2013–2014 that prioritizes implementing extensive infrastructure development and the programs and wide ranging CAREC strategy which promotes interventions, funded by regional cooperation and energy development partners including trade. ADB, USAID, and World Bank. Has upward and downward transmission and distribution system linkages with a number of projects assisted by ADB and other development partners. 43497 Power Sector Master Likely Energy sector has consistently been Design was adequate and financing None. None. (TA 7637/ TA Plan/ Addendum relevant a priority in the national development was sufficient for desired outcome. 8475) to the Power Sector plan. An updated power master plan Master Plan will facilitate strategic prioritization of No major changes made during the required infrastructure to achieve implementation. energy security. TA design had adequate flexibility to meet requests from Afghanistan. 46347 Supporting the Inter- Likely In the past, the Interministerial TA reestablished ICE secretariat to None. Deterioration of political stability (TA 8328) Ministerial relevant Commission for Energy (ICE) proved coordinate energy reforms, and security identified as risks at Commission for to be the most effective and coherent investments, and plans to unify the onset. Government Energy mechanism to brainstorm and agree Afghanistan’s energy sector. counterpart support includes the on an investment and governance provision of security services. agenda.

47282 Multitranche Likely The preparation of MFF 2 further Investment program will finance Yes. Increase connection Project security and demining (TA 8509) Financing Facility II relevant addresses the gaps in energy portion of the 10-year generation and rate by expanding grid- built in design of proposed Energy Development demand and supply in the country transmission investment plan and will based distribution systems Tranche 1. 2014-2023 and enhances regional power trade. build on transmission and distribution and bring renewable investments made under the first energy supply to off grid Energy MFF; aims to develop a communities. unified grid connecting NEPS with SEPS.

94 Appendix 6

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations (Loan/Grant No.) Rating Description in Design

47018 Gas Development Likely For Afghanistan, a sound energy The master plan would cover a 20- Areas that the plan would There is a risk that political (TA 8401) Master Plan relevant policy mandates supply diversification year horizon (2013-2033) and would also look at: environmental stability and security may in order to achieve energy security. entail (i) preparation of gas demand and poverty-combating deteriorate after the 2014 Afghanistan is highly reliant on and supply outlook and scenarios; (ii) priorities and how these withdrawal of foreign troops, imported energy in the form of development of market assessments may be influenced by gas which may dissuade contractors electricity and oil, resulting in and netback analysis; (iii) review development options and and consultants from bidding for significant exposure to energy price current policies and plans in the alternatives, and assess and implementing power projects volatility; because potential domestic context of gas development; (iv) the country’s related in Afghanistan. The government gas fields have not yet been fully assessment of the financial institutional and economic will provide counterpart support explored and developed, the requirements and needs; (v) capacity to address the in the form of security. dependency of the energy sector on evaluation of pricing options for negative consequences of imported power and fuels is likely to various segments vis-a-vis domestic gas development. increase. sales and transit/exports; (vi) develop a planning model and train MoMP staff on its use; (vii) assessment of environmental, socioeconomic, and non-monetary impacts; (viii) review of other countries' experiences with gas supply chain development including compressed natural gas (CNG) sector; and (ix) formulation of an Afghanistan Gas Sector Master Plan and Implementation Strategy (with sequencing of priority investment projects). 47266 Renewable Energy Likely Included in the COBP 2014–2015 Builds on outputs of previous ADB Yes. Complements the TA will work closely with the (TA 8808) Development relevant and is fully aligned with the National TA projects and development objective of ADB’s ICPS, United Nations security agencies Priority Program and the Power partners' efforts on renewable 2014–2015 for inclusive and the ADB security team to Sector Master Plan of the energy resource assessment (in economic growth through identify provincial capitals that Government of Afghanistan, solar, wind, micro hydro, and the development of are less volatile. approved in 2013, which call for the biomass). Proposed TA interventions physical infrastructure development of the energy sector will help remove these barriers and such as power through expansion of the electricity catalyze the widespread adoption of transmission, distribution, network to reduce poverty to one- renewable energy systems. and rural electrification. third of the total population by 2015. Sector: Transport

40333-022 Road Network Likely The project will enable the ring road DMF retrofitted in 2011 - remains Yes. Project is expected to Project recognized that (G0081/ Development Project relevant to fully perform its intended role as valid in the midterm review of 2013. contribute to poverty continuing conflict may affect G0244/G0291) I (Bala Murghab to the backbone of the national reduction by providing costs. Mitigation measures were Leman) transportation system and principal access to urban markets identified in the RRP but must be conduit for national and international for agricultural products as assessed at project completion. passenger and freight traffic. well as improve rural Budget allocation for demining peoples’ access to noted in RRP. education and health facilities.

Appendix 6 95

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations (Loan/Grant No.) Rating Description in Design

37075-022 Qaisar-Bala Murghab Likely Project will help the Government DMF retrofitted in 2011 - remained Yes. Project is expected to RRP noted that overall political (G0012/ Road relevant promote economic and social valid in the midterm review of 2013. reduce poverty by and security situation remains G0244/G0291) development and reduce poverty by increasing production and volatile. While some mitigation rehabilitating the conflict-damaged trade in the area of major measures were identified, primary road network. farm products. prevailing conditions cannot be mitigated completely. No explicit Project was likewise in line with budget allocation for mitigating ADB’s assistance strategy outlined in security-related issues noted in the CSPU 2004-2006, which included RRP. a focus on rehabilitation of key infrastructure. 44482-023 MFF - Transport Likely MFF aims to improve domestic and This MFF succeeds an old MFF Yes. Project has Recognized security as an (MFF0063: Network relevant regional connectivity while widening approved in 2008 which has been implications on transport underlying concern in original G0261/G0262) Development access to social and economic fully utilized. The strategy and infrastructure that will RRP. The Ministry of Interior is Investment Program opportunities. roadmap underpinning the 2008 MFF eventually impact and expected to provide security to all - Tranche 1 (O&M remains valid for this new MFF. The benefit the poor through projects. A methodology has Support for the MFF is aligned with Afghanistan’s roadmap for the sector identifies increased movement of been established from past railway line from observed transport sector short-, medium-,and long-term goods and services and projects, with successful results. Hairatan to Mazar-e- deficiencies, the Government’s investments covering roads, rail, and better connectivity. No explicit budget allocation for Sharif, and strategies, plans, programs, and airports. mitigating security-related issues Reconstruction and initiatives as described by ANDS, noted in RRP or other widening of 50 km ANDS– Prioritization and Lessons from past MFF succeeding project documents. Bagramy to Sapary Implementation Plan, and National implementation were adopted in the Road) Regional Integrated Resources design of this new MFF. Corridor Initiative, and will assist in closing the funding gap of the Monitoring reports noted that: (i) poor Government’s roadmap for transport or outdated construction designs sector development. resulted to contract variations; and (ii) capacity of MPW not fully Also aligned with the CPS 2009- addressed in design. 2013. 44482-023 MFF - Transport Likely MFF aims to improve domestic and This MFF succeeds an old MFF Yes. Project has Recognized security as an (MFF0063: Network relevant regional connectivity while widening approved in 2008 which has been implications on transport underlying concern in original G0327/G0328/ Development access to social and economic fully utilized. The strategy and infrastructure that will RRP. The Ministry of Interior is TA8069) Investment Program opportunities. roadmap underpinning the 2008 MFF eventually impact and expected to provide security to all - Tranche 2 remains valid for this new MFF. The benefit the poor through projects. A methodology has (Transport MFF is aligned with Afghanistan’s roadmap for the sector identifies increased movement of been established from past Infrastructure observed transport sector short, medium, and long term goods and services and projects, with successful results. Development deficiencies, the Government’s investments covering roads, rail, and better connectivity. No explicit budget allocation for Component, and strategies, plans, programs, and airports. mitigating security-related issues Transport Network initiatives as described by ANDS, noted in RRP or other Management ANDS– Prioritization and Lessons from past MFF succeeding project documents. Capacity Implementation Plan, and National implementation were adopted in the Development Regional Integrated Resources design of this new MFF. Component) Corridor Initiative, and will assist in closing the funding gap of the . Government’s roadmap for transport sector development.

96 Appendix 6

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations (Loan/Grant No.) Rating Description in Design

Also aligned with the CPS 2009- 2013.

44482-024 MFF - Transport Likely MFF aims to improve domestic and This MFF succeeds an old MFF Yes. Project has Recognized security as an (MFF0063: Network relevant regional connectivity while widening approved in 2008 which has been implications on transport underlying concern in original G0355) Development access to social and economic fully utilized. The strategy and infrastructure that will RRP. The Ministry of Interior is Investment Program opportunities. roadmap underpinning the 2008 MFF eventually impact and expected to provide security to all - Tranche 3 remains valid for this new MFF. The benefit the poor through projects. A methodology has (Reconstruction of MFF is aligned with Afghanistan’s roadmap for the sector identifies increased movement of been established from past 178 km section of observed transport sector short, medium, and long term goods and services and projects, with successful results. Dar-i-Suf to deficiencies, the Government’s investments covering roads, rail, and better connectivity. No explicit budget allocation for Yakawlang, provision strategies, plans, programs, and airports. mitigating security-related issues of design and initiatives as described by ANDS, noted in RRP or other construction ANDS–Prioritization and Lessons from past MFF succeeding project documents. supervision services, Implementation Plan, and National implementation were adopted in the feasibility studies for Regional Integrated Resources design of this new MFF. the Investment Corridor Initiative, and will assist in Program, and closing the funding gap of the provision of support Government’s roadmap for transport for MPW project sector development. implementation) Also aligned with the CPS 2009- 2013. 44482-025 MFF - Transport Likely MFF aims to improve domestic and This MFF succeeds an old MFF Yes. Project has Recognized security as an (MFF0063: Network relevant regional connectivity while widening approved in 2008 which has been implications on transport underlying concern in original G0422/G0423) Development access to social and economic fully utilized. The strategy and infrastructure that will RRP. The Ministry of Interior is Investment Program opportunities. roadmap underpinning the 2008 MFF eventually impact and expected to provide security to all - Tranche 4 remains valid for this new MFF. The benefit the poor through projects. A methodology has (Reconstruction of MFF is aligned with Afghanistan’s roadmap for the sector identifies increased movement of been established from past 108 km Baharak to observed transport sector short, medium, and long term goods and services and projects, with successful results. Eshkashim road, deficiencies, the Government’s investments covering roads, rail, and better connectivity. No explicit budget allocation for provision of strategies, plans, programs, and airports. mitigating security-related issues construction initiatives as described by ANDS, noted in RRP or other supervision services, ANDS–Prioritization and Lessons from past MFF succeeding project documents. provision of support Implementation Plan, and implementation were adopted in the for the Investment Prioritization and Implementation design of this new MFF. Program, capacity Plan, and will assist in closing the development of funding gap of the Government’s AfRA, and roadmap for transport sector improvement of the development. efficiency of the Also aligned with the CPS 2009- traffic along CAREC 2013. Corridors 5 and 6) 47210-001 Transport Sector Likely TA was requested by Government to The study follows the generic None. Not directly The TAR notes that the transition (TA8687) Master Plan Update relevant update its national transport sector approach to master planning: i.e., (i) discussed but study has in 2014 brings considerable plan, which takes into account formulation of vision, goals and implications on transport uncertainty in security. No progress made to date, gaps yet to objectives; (ii) design of alternative infrastructure that will explicit budget allocation for be filled, as well as emerging courses of action; (iii) comparative eventually benefit the poor. mitigating security-related issues

Appendix 6 97

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations (Loan/Grant No.) Rating Description in Design

priorities and resource scenarios. evaluation of consequences; (iv) noted in the TAR. choice among alternatives; and (v) TA is consistent with ADB's CPS implementation of the chosen 2009-2013 and COBP 2014-2015, alternative. and government's national priority programs.

Sector: Agriculture and Natural Resources

39370-022 (0126) Agriculture Market Likely Consistent with Government’s An oversight during project design is Yes. Project will undertake Majority of the work will be Infrastructure Project relevant agriculture sector master plan and the lack of government's policy agricultural market undertaken in major cities and the ANDS that detail opportunities for framework on public private infrastructure investments, urban areas; therefore, there is growth and value adding in core partnership considering that the which will generate no perceived threat of security agricultural commodities in the operation of slaughterhouses was inclusive economic growth. (during project preparation). horticulture and livestock subsector, designed using public funds for including the need to develop a investments and contracting private However, during market-based regulatory environment sector for management and implementation, security with access to inputs, services, and operations. conditions remain a challenge in markets. Consistent with CPS 2009- Kunduz and to an extent in 2013 and ADB strategies. Herat slaughterhouse areas. 36222-013 (9165) Community-Based Likely Consistent with Afghanistan National Builds on the outcomes achieved by Yes. Project included Risks cited include general Irrigation relevant Development Strategy and CPS Rural Recovery through Community- women’s interests in skills insecurity, weak central Rehabilitation and 2009-2013. Based Irrigation Rehabilitation development and decision government administrative Development Project. The project considered making; an outreach to control in the project area, and Complements the activities of the lessons from previous ADB women, especially women fighting between rival warlords. Water Resources Development operations such as the importance of community leaders, as part Mitigating measures mentioned Investment Program—an MFF ensuring direct involvement of of the participation process adoption of a participatory project that focuses on large-scale stakeholders in subproject design, and the capacity approach involving communities system interventions. construction, and management; development component. and provincial DRRDs will training community organizations in Beneficiaries include rural minimize the risk posed by poor rehabilitating and operating systems; populations of Baghlan, security and conflict to the improving on-farm water Balkh, Ghor and safety of project personnel. management through training and Samangan provinces. capacity building; improving the engineering design, quality of materials, and construction techniques used in physical works. Project worked with existing community development council. 36252-013 Western Basins Likely Consistent with ADB’s CSPU 2004- Noted the change in financing but Yes. About 400,000 Security costs not included in (2227/0033/ 0052) Water Resources relevant 2006 as it supported natural resource this had no impact on project persons (about 20% of the the design. Management management and relied on building implementation arrangement (i.e., western basin’s population) capacity, establishing appropriate additional grant financing from the were expected to benefit policy and institutional frameworks, Government of Canada to replace from the Project, of which and rehabilitating essential financing from the Government of the about 80% were classified

98 Appendix 6

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations (Loan/Grant No.) Rating Description in Design

infrastructure. United Arab Emirates, significantly as poor or very poor. In benefits the Government of addition, many project Afghanistan’s fiscal position in participants were landless augmenting the pure grant sharecroppers. Design component of the Project). also included gender disaggregated targets.

42091-022/032 MFF 0033 Water Likely Consistent with the ANDS and Design benefited from a project Yes. In an effort to address Project implementation will be (0167/0170/ PPTA Resources relevant constitutes the country’s strategic preparatory technical assistance. gender-related concerns supported by adequate security 7088) Development platform for development for 2008– MFF modality is appropriate as it associated with the resources, including for Investment Program - 2020. MFF finances medium-term provides flexibility to the authorities Investment Program, Project communications, transport and Tranche 1 portion of a broader investment and ADB, financing is aligned with will improve access sites at physical reinforcement of facilities. program. project readiness, allows ADB to irrigation canals where Security plans will be developed Consistent with CPS 2009–2013, enter into a long-term partnership, women traditionally gather to for each activity with support from ADB’s Strategy 2020, and water thereby creating a stable financing wash clothes and collect the Afghanistan Resident Mission policy on “Water for All”. plan and platform for sector water. DMF reflected gender security team. Private and development (providing for physical related target. government security personnel will and nonphysical investments), and be engaged as required. shifts time and resources away from Security costs integrated in the repetitive processing tasks into design. implementation work. 2013 heavy rainfall caused flooding that destroyed embankment in main canal, causing slight delay in the implementation of original scope of work. 42091-043 (0362) Water Resources Likely CPS 2009-2013 prioritizes Comprise infrastructure and None. Entrenched gender Unstable security conditions Development relevant development of agriculture and nonphysical support for Lower roles and strict controls on delay construction activities. Investment Program - natural resources through improved Kokcha Irrigation Project. women’s movement outside Adequate security resources are Tranche 2 irrigation and water resource the house in this remote included in the budget for management. Introduces the concept of an area make women’s communication, transportation irrigation service fee to ensure substantial participation in and security facilities. A security Overriding objective of ANDS is to sufficient funds for operations and project activities very plan will be developed for each substantially reduce poverty, maintenance (i.e., scheme tied to unlikely. set of activities. Continuous improve the lives of the people, and equity and reliability of water supply consultations will take place with create the foundation of a secure and incremental benefits). district governments, shura and stable country. To achieve this elders and communities. objective, one of strategy’s pillars is Project will contribute to reduce economic and social development, vulnerability to climate change in the which includes water and irrigation target area. development. 45259-001 (9167) Enhanced Likely Supports the principles of ADB’s Built on the successes of Rural Yes. Project will collaborate Adoption of a participatory Agricultural Value relevant Strategy 2020, which designates Business Support Project. closely with mature approach involving communities Chains for infrastructure—including rural community development and government is expected to Sustainable infrastructure—one of ADB’s five Approach focuses on community councils. minimize risk of poor security Livelihoods core areas of operations. based contracting—engaging local and conflict to the safety of support and ownership. Local and village-level project personnel. Complies with ADB priority to vegetable storage facilities

Appendix 6 99

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations (Loan/Grant No.) Rating Description in Design

provide rehabilitation and will have a pro-poor design reconstruction assistance in post- that minimizes operation Use of predominantly national disaster and post-conflict situations. and maintenance costs and personnel will allow project ensures that the project’s operations without considerable Consistent with the CPS 2009-2013 benefits continue well security overheads necessary to with support to agriculture being beyond its completion. ensure safety of international one of the priority sectors for experts. Afghanistan. Addresses gender equity— needs of women farmers will Focus on areas that have By improving agricultural be analyzed and the project comparatively better security productivity, it is also in line with the will support groups working conditions. activities outlined in ADB’s on behalf of women, such Operational Plan for Sustainable The project will demonstrate as women farmer groups clear improvements in local Food Security in Asia and the and by women shuras, to Pacific. incomes, increase employment allow women to access opportunities, and raise living Complements the activities of higher levels in the value standards and consequently will ADB’s Agriculture Market chain and build capacity. likely have strong community Infrastructure Project. support. 48326-001 Northern Flood- Likely Project contributes to the 3-year project implementation period Yes. Utilizes an inclusive Discussions with local security (0411/0412) Damaged relevant achievement of government and seen more appropriate (instead of 2) design for community agencies, particularly the police Infrastructure ADB development outcomes, as given security issues. engagement to encourage and the Afghanistan National Emergency outlined in the ICPS 2014‒2015 for peace building in a post- Army on a regular basis to Rehabilitation Project Afghanistan. conflict environment. address security concerns. ADB investments to repair village Gender roles in the project Communication links will be economic infrastructure and rural area are unlikely to change; established with every connectivity complement large project will have a limited community development council, humanitarian efforts of the gender impact. which will provide early warning government and its development of any security issue. partners. Will use farmers and local laborers to undertake the Adequate security to allow construction under the subproject implementation is a guidance of MRRD selection criterion. engineers-benefiting local communities from both Budget provided to meet infrastructure and security needs. construction income and Utilizes an inclusive design for cope with damaged housing community engagement to and economic assets. encourage peace building in a post-conflict environment. 44411-022 (TA Supporting Natural Likely Complements capacity requirement Includes an assessment of long-term None. Security identified as risks but 7994) Resources relevant for ongoing and future ANR implementing agency capacity and no measures were mentioned in Operations projects. development needs that will identify the design except the inclusion components and activities for of miscellaneous administration external support. and support costs (i.e., minimum operating security standards). Generates short-, medium-, and long-term strategic plans to define

100 Appendix 6

Project No. Relevance Inclusive Growth Project Name Strategic Justification Project Design FCAS Considerations (Loan/Grant No.) Rating Description in Design

and achieve sector objectives and implement sector policies, including an aid coordination plan. Results and targets in the design frame are appropriate for this TA.

Sector: Finance

44457-012 Rural Finance Likely TA was requested by the Some targets lack benchmark None Identified security as a concern (TA7983) Expansion relevant Government of Afghanistan during figures. There has been a major when mobilizing consultants. the Kabul Conference to strengthen change in scope. TA budget includes a $150,000 rural finance appraisal skills of allocation for security solution commercial banks and microfinance for field work in component 1. institutions. Expansion of rural finance is critical to sustain ongoing reconstruction efforts. Sector: Public Sector Management

40280 Support for Economic Likely With the decline in donor support TA completion date has been None Security was aptly recognized (TA4964) Policy Management relevant and reduction in foreign military extended thrice. Additional TA funds in the design and monitoring (formerly Capacity presence, the continuity and were requested to cover costs for framework. No discussion on Building for Ministry support provided by the TA is additional consultancy services. mitigating measures in the of Finance) required to further contribute to a TAR. No explicit budget stronger Ministry of Finance. allocation for mitigating security-related issues noted in TAR. Sector: Multisector

47263-001 Support for Likely TA supports the development of the Implementation arrangements, TA None. But indirectly Aptly identified (in the TAR and (TA8470) Infrastructure relevant infrastructure sector which is amount, and completion date have supports energy and DMF) the deteriorating security Investments and reflected in ANDS and national been modified/extended to enhance transport projects that condition as a risk that may Policy priority programs. TA will TA outcome and impact. promote inclusive growth. delay project implementation. specifically enhance the capacity of No mitigation measures are government to coordinate the identified except that financing of infrastructure projects. Government is expected to Government and ADB agreed on provide security and security- the scope, implementation related resources to the project. arrangements, cost, financing arrangements, and terms of reference for consultants for the capacity development TA. ADB = Asian Development Bank, ADF = Asian Development Fund, AfRA = Afghanistan Railway Authority, ANDS = Afghanistan National Development Strategy, ANR = agriculture and natural resources, APPF = Afghanistan Public Protection Force, CAREC = Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, COBP = country operations business plan, CNG = compressed natural gas, CPS = country partnership strategy, CSPU = country strategy and program update, DMF = design and monitoring framework, DDRD = Department of Rural Rehabilitation and Development, ICE = Interministerial Commission for Energy, ICPS = interim county partnership strategy, MFF = multitranche financing facility, MOMP = Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, MPW = Ministry of Public Works, MRRD = Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development, NEPS = North East Power System, NVDA = Nangarhar Valley Development Authority, O&M = operations and maintenance, PFR = periodic financing request, PPTA = project preparatory technical assistance, RRP = Report and Recommendation of the President, SEPS = South East Power System, TA = technical assistance, TAR = technical assistance report, USAID = United States Agency for International Development.

Appendix 6 101

Table A6.2: Project Performance: Progress of Outputs and Outcomes Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress

Sector: Energy

37078-013 Power Increased transmission 114.1 km transmission Increase number of consumers 10,320 out of 74,200 (14%) new Substantial cost overrun. (2165/G0004) Transmission and network of 114.1 km (54 network. connected to grid power supply in connections completed in 2013. Distribution Project km double circuit and 60 project area from 28% (2005) to Project cost increased due to km single circuit) in 6 out of 8 substations. more than 31% by 2013. System losses curtailed from more delays (completion should have project area by 2013. than 70% in 2002 to around 40% in been in Mar. 2008) which led to Grid supply in additional 8 74,200 new connections of poor 2014. the reduction of project scope. Increased number of 8 rural towns. households to grid power supply Less likely to achieve target for poor Delays caused by deteriorating grid substations in project by 2013. area by 2013. household connections given the security situation. Transmission and distribution cancellation of the provision of Grid supply available in network losses reduced in project connection kits in March 2012. additional 8 rural towns by areas from the estimate of 35%- 2013. 40% (2005) to 30% by 2013. Capacity building component through a TA was less than effective Improve capacity of executing given the delay in implementation agencies (strengthen institutions (i.e., ascribed to unclear scope, to accelerate project security concerns, difficulty in implementation and improve identifying suitable participants and sector efficiency). unclear counterpart arrangements). .42094-062 (9128) Development of Construction of 4 mini No physical work Up to 5,000 households electrified. Not likely to achieve outcomes Delays increased cost, and funding Mini-Hydropower in hydro plants with commenced 4 years after given the cancellation of the for a mini hydroplant could not be Badakhshan and aggregate installed effectiveness. Day-time load is about 30% of project. covered by the grant. Security in the Bamyan Provinces capacity of up to 2MW. peak load or higher (as a proxy for project area was also deteriorating Detailed design completed the level of income-generating which contributed to project for 4 mini hydro plants activities supported). cancellation. (Topchi, Taqab, Baharaq, Panjab) and associated Improve capacity of the executing The Project was consistently rated minigrids. and implementing agencies; as actual problem project since Q2 strengthening of community based 2013 due to low contract award and Bidding documents prepared organizations. disbursement figures. for the 4 mini hydro plants. 12-month delay in the issuance of variation order to the consultant's contract contributed to the slow progress in project implementation. Weak capacity of the executing agency and its frequent management turnover remained an issue. 46392-001 North-South Power (a) New 500-kV Technical bids under review NEPS transmission capacity To be assessed at completion. Q1 2015 validated project rating is (0374/0375) Transmission transmission line of 225 and contracts expected to be increases from 150 MW in 2009 to on track. Enhancement km from Baghlan to awarded by end of 2015. 1,000 MW of connected load by Project 2018. Slow procurement required Kabul installed by 2018. extension of project completion by Power shortfall in Kabul reduced 1.5 years.

102 Appendix 6

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress (b) New 500-kV/220-kV from 100 MW in 2013 to 50 MW in substation in Arghundy 2018. operational by 2018.

(c) Transmission flow capacity between north and south Afghanistan increased from 300 MW in 2012 to 1,300 MW by 2018. 42094-012/022 MFF Energy (a) An additional 4 MW (a) Offgrid hydropower (a) Power system capable to supply (a) To be assessed upon Q1 2015 validated project rating is (MFF 0026/G0134) Sector of offgrid hydropower dropped in 2011. 1,450 MW of connected load from completion. on track. Development capacity developed by NEPS by 2017. Investment- 2014. (b) 6 gas wells in Sheberghan (b) Connections can only be Suffered from delays due to weak Tranche 1 rehabilitated and increased (b1) 20kv and low voltage networks made for 45,000 households. interest of consultants and (b) 3,500 terajoules of production to about 1.3 million for 59,000 households and 3,500 contractors, deteriorating security, additional gas supply cubic meters per day. small businesses in Kunduz and (c) NEPS losses currently weak capacity in project from Sheberghan gas Baghlan cities. stand at 39%. Commercial administration. This resulted in 30- fields by 2013. (c) Kunduz-Toloqan losses have been reduced by 40% cost escalation prompting EA transmission line completed (b2) 81% of urban and 12% rural more than 50% in major load to request for the cancellation of 2 (c) Kunduz-Tologan and operational: 20% population connected in Taloqan centers. subprojects (now being financed by transmission line, and completion of distribution region by 2013. other development partners). Kunduz and Baghlan networks in Kunduz and (d) DABS PMO comprised of distribution networks. Baghlan. (b3) 54% of urban and 4% rural DABS permanent staff Capacity of EA/DABS in project population in Kunduz, and 8% of supported under ADB MFF. administration remains weak. (d) O&M: technical (d) NEPS O&M contract have urban and 2% of rural population in Substantial donor support for losses reduced from been cancelled and picked up Baghlan connected to the grid by DABS operations confirmed DABS has improved its financial 30% to 15% by 2017. by USAID. 2013. throughout 2016. management but is still considered a high financial management risk. (e) Project management: (e) DABS PMO comprise of (c) Reduction of network losses DABS manages projects DABS permanent staff from 50% to 30% by 2017. without consultant supported under ADB MFF. support by 2013. (d) Project management office (f) Achieved staffed solely by DABS personnel (f) Tranche 2 projects 2015; DABS performs O&M identified. functions independently by 2015. 42094-032 MFF Energy 30 km of double circuit 400km grid extension in south Customer consumption to increase To be assessed at completion. Q1 2015 project rating was on track. (0184/PPTA 7289) Sector 220 kV transmission line west Kabul Darchi-e-Bashi by 60,000 households by 2013. Development from existing Chimtala only commenced in March Physical contracts for the 40% cost overrun led to cancellation Investment- substation to new Kabul 2015. Electricity inputs from Tajikistan will distribution network will only of nonphysical subprojects. Tranche 2 Southwest substation. reach 150 MW by 2013 (current be able to provide 45,000 Ongoing works for the new load is 0). connections. Startup delays were related to (Kabul Distribution New Kabul Southwest Kabul southwest substation. consultant recruitment and land Network substation (220/110/20 Electricity inputs from Uzbekistan acquisition issues. Rehabilitation kV). will increase from 70 MW in 2009 to Project) 300 MW in 2013. Distribution network in southwest Kabul By 2013, grid in Southwest Kabul comprising Darchi-e-Bashi area expanded by approximately 65 km of 400 km (currently approximately 40

Appendix 6 103

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress medium voltage (MV - km). 20 kV) lines and 500 km low voltage (LV – 0.4 Planned power supply maintained kV) lines. at 24/7. Supply of 100 Improved power reliability (96% distribution transformers availability) in Darchi-e-Bashi area for the Kabul distribution by December 2013. network. Improved institutional effectiveness Improved system and efficiency. planning and project management capacities in DABS. 42094-042 MFF Energy Rehabilitation and The civil works contract to Available power supply load To be assessed upon project Rated as 'potential problem' as (0280/0281/0282) Sector upgrading of hydropower replace three turbine increased from 1.2 MW (2009) to completion. disbursement is at 37%, as of Q1 Development plant from 3.0 MW to 4.8 generators (1.62 MW each) in 4.5 MW by 2014. 2015. Investment- MW by 2014 (installed the power house started and Tranche 3 capacity). target achievable by March Delays in the achievement of (Gereshk Electricity 2016. outcomes were due to contract Services Replacement of 3.3 kV management issues and continued Improvement distribution line to 20 kV Rebidding for procurement of tense security situation on site. Project) line by 2013. transmission and distribution equipment underway. Engaged security services for 100 DABS staff will gain project implementation. But experience in the Construction of distribution agreement with Afghan Public installation works of the network will be done in Protection Force could not be distribution system by parallel with rehabilitation of made operational until July 2015. 2013. generation facilities by the end of 2016. Outcome might be achievable by end 2015. DABS operational staff receiving on the job training by ADB- financed consultants and contractors working on distribution rehabilitation projects. Offsite training of DABS officials on going. Activities are ongoing and target is achievable by end December 2015. 42094-052 MFF Energy Additional 108 km of 500 Civil works have yet to start. Turkmenistan power import To be assessed at project There has been a 12-month delay in (0332) Sector kV transmission line by increased from 175 GWh in 2011 to completion. signing of the power purchase and Development 2016. Financial bid evaluation for 1,000 GWh in 2018. sales agreement between Investment- two turnkey packages are in Afghanistan and Turkmenistan. Tranche 4 Additional 142 km of 220 progress. No load shedding and blackouts in Signing of the agreement is a

104 Appendix 6

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress (Grid Development kV transmission line by Kabul from 2018 onwards. prerequisite for contract awarding. & Distribution 2016. The bidding documents for (baseline in 2011 was 2-3 hrs/day). Expansion Project) distribution component in Project is considered “actual New 220/20 kV sub- south-east Afghanistan is problem” based on validated project stations at Mazar-e- under preparation and rating. As of Q1 2015, no Sharif and Sheberghan contract is expected to be disbursement had been made. by 2016. awarded in Q4 2015. Two new substations in installed in south east Afghanistan by 2017. 500 km of new distribution lines installed. Grid supply available to an additional 20,000 customers by 2020 (baseline in 2011 is 850,000 customers). 42094-075 MFF Energy Commissioning of a 500- Contracts have yet to be NEPS capable to supply 150 MW in To be assessed at project Project is rated as 'actual problem' (0377) Sector kV substation at Dashte awarded. 2009 to 1,000 MW of connected completion. with 0% disbursement. Development Alwan (Transmission load by 2017. Investment- flow capacity between Tranche 5 (Dashte north and south Alwan 500kV Afghanistan increased substation) from 300 MW in 2012 to 1,300 MW by 2018). 46347 Supporting the By 2014, ICE database ICE Energy Sector database Annual updating of power sector To be assessed at TA (TA 8328) Inter-Ministerial established, consisting of project plans master plan and 20-year completion. Commission for comprehensive energy and implementation progress Afghanistan energy investment Energy sector strategies from major development program beginning in 2014. prepared, and working partners (ADB, USAID, KfW, groups for energy GiZ, DFID, World Bank) and Approval of the Electricity Law planning established. ministries (MEW, DABS, (including clear definition of roles of MoMP, MRRD) has been stakeholders, private sector developed and has participation and regulatory regime) undergone periodic updates. by December 2014. Approval by the Joint Monitoring and Coordination Board of the Afghanistan National Energy Supply Program (Energy National Priority Program) by December 2014. Power sector master plan institutionalized and secretariat established in the Ministry of Energy and Water by December

Appendix 6 105

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress 2014.

47282 Multitranche Socio-economic data, In progress and expected to The PPTA aims to assist DABS in In progress and expected to (TA 8509) Financing Facility II demand forecasts for the be completed in November conducting due diligence for the be completed in November Energy selected areas in 2015. ensuing MFF and its tranche 1. 2015. Development Afghanistan, 2014-2023 assessment of appropriate renewable energy options, sustainable business model, and economic and financial evaluations. 47018 Gas Development Gas development TA has summarized other Gas resource potential estimated TA completion was extended Delays were encountered in 2014 - (TA 8401) Master Plan master plan. countries’ experience on gas and investment programming for the preparation of a related to Afghan elections and sector development master prioritized in accordance with demand study (additional delayed appointment of a new By December 2014, plan; held additional projects identified and sequenced activity requested by the MoMP minister. completed the following: workshop in November 2014 in gas development master plan by government). Gas production, in Kabul, Afghanistan where December 2014. results were presented on the transmission and Gas development master plan distribution database. reserve assessments and the preliminary potential demand approved by the Cabinet and the Gas sector data assessments; and submitted Parliament by December 2014. analyses and investment second quarter progress Gas development master plan designs. report on 22 January 2015. institutionalized and department Interim report was submitted established in the MoMP by List of priority gas in April 2015. allocations sectors, December 2014. investment programs (2015–2035). 5 staff members of MoMP trained to update and sustain the Gas Development Master Plan. 47266 Renewable Energy Renewable energy road Activities started in 2015. Improved capacity to mobilize To be assessed after None (TA 8808) Development map, report on investment for three or four completion in 2017. renewable energy renewable energy projects in 2015– resource and technology 2019. assessment in identified areas, improved capacity to plan and implement renewable energy projects.

106 Appendix 6

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress

By 2017, at least 25% of staff in MEW, Renewable Energy Department, and provincial governments completed the training, of which 20% are female.

Sector: Transport

40333-022 Road Network (a) 143 km road which is Off track. Project was re-packaged. (a) Higher level of mobility To be assessed at project Encountered delays due to (G0081/ MFF0025: Development part of the last missing Construction ongoing but has not and increase in freight completion. security issues, inefficient G0244, G0291) Project I (Bala link of the regional Ring progressed as planned. volumes and passenger coordination of construction, Murghab to Leman) Road constructed. transport services (i.e., cost cutting measures by increase speed from 35 km/h contractor, and unsatisfactory (b) Emergency and to 50 km/h by 2011, increase performance of contractor and ancillary works on number of registered bus engineer. Andkhoy–Qaisar road operators from 165 in 2007 to completed. 400 in 2016, increase number (c) Roads maintained of registered goods vehicle according to pre- operators from 400 in 2007 to established performance 600 in 2016). criteria. (b) Increase reliability and (d) Management level of service on section of information system regional road network in installed at MPW. northern Afghanistan (i.e., emergency response time to road failures lowered from 18 months to 3 months by 2011, undisrupted winter travel on at least 1,000 km).

37075-022 Qaisar-Bala (a) 90 km primary road Off track. Project was re-packaged. Improved road transport To be assessed at project Implementation affected by (G0012/ MFF0025: Murghab Road section from Qaisar-Bala Construction ongoing but has not services in the project area completion. security situation, resulting in G0244, G0291) to Murghab improved progressed as planned. through: delays. and equipped with facility for road tolling (a) 50% decrease in travel and axle-load control. time for all types of vehicles immediately after project (b) Public awareness completion. about HIV/AIDS improved by sensitizing (b) 100% increase in freight 5,000 persons. and passenger traffic on the project road within 1-year of (c) Capacity in MOT for project completion.

Appendix 6 107

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress road sector management (c) 50% decrease in freight strengthened. and passenger transport fares on the project road within 1- year of project completion. (d) average 50% reduction in travel time to nearest health, primary education, and other essential services from the project area within 3 months of project completion. 44482-023 MFF - Transport (a) Operation and Off track. Implementation behind By 2019: Not yet due. Capacity development issues (MFF0063: Network maintenance for the schedule. (management, procurement) G0261/G0262) Development railway line from (a) Increased connectivity: hampering implementation. Investment Hairatan to Mazar-e- Percent of project areas Under resourced and Program - Tranche Sharif supported. connected to the regional unprepared consultants and 1 (Operation and highway network by paved contractors have been hired. Maintenance (b) Approximately 50 km roads increased to 90% from Improved project administration Support for the Bagramy to Sapary 70% in 2010. by ADB recommended. railway line from Road reconstructed and widened. (b) Increased average Hairatan to Mazar- intercity travel speed: On e-Sharif, and national highway network Reconstruction and average speed increased widening of 50 km from 35 km/h in 2010 to at Bagramy to Sapary least 50 km/h in program Road) areas. (c) Increased availability of inter-city freight and passenger services: Volumes of traffic along project roads increased by 30% from 2011, and travel time to the nearest primary school, healthcare facility, or other essential service in target areas decreased by 25% or 15 minutes from the existing average of 1 hour in 2011. 44482-023 MFF - Transport (a) Approximately 106 Off track. Implementation behind Same as above. Not yet due. Initial physical progress has (MFF0063: Network km Sapary to Jalalabad schedule. been slow due to problems G0327/G0328) Development Road reconstructed and associated with the government Investment widened. granting of business licenses, Program - Tranche corruption issues in bidding, 2 (Transport (b) Approximately 32 km and security. Chah-e-Anjir to Gereshk

108 Appendix 6

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress Infrastructure Road rehabilitated. Development Component, and (c) Approximately 50 km Transport Network of the Sharan to Angoor Management Ada Road reconstructed. Capacity (d) Capacity of MPW Development developed: (i) pre- Component) feasibility study for Bamyan to Kandahar Road prepared, (ii) business plan revised, and (iii) support for project implementation by MPW provided. 44482-024 MFF - Transport (a) Approximately 178 Off track. Implementation behind Same as above. Not yet due. Bidding issues being (MFF0063: G0355) Network km section of road from schedule. encountered. Given time delays Development Dar-i-Suf to Yakawlang in procurement, an extension of Investment (the missing section of time to the grant agreements Program - Tranche the North-South for Tranche 3 is required. 3 (Reconstruction Corridor) reconstructed, of 178 km section including construction of of Dar-i-Suf to related community Yakawlang, development provision of design infrastructure. and construction supervision (b) Design and services, feasibility construction supervision studies for the services provided. investment (c) Project feasibility program, and studies prepared. provision of support for MPW project (d) Support for project implementation) implementation by MPW provided.

Appendix 6 109

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress

44482-025 MFF - Transport (a) Approximately 108 On track. Grant agreements for Same as above. Not yet due. — (MFF0063: Network km Baharak to Tranche 4 signed. Tranche 4 G0422/G0423) Development Eshkashim section of became effective 28 March 2015. Investment the Faizabad to Program - Tranche Eshkashim road 4 (Reconstruction reconstructed, including of 108 km Baharak the construction of to Eshkashim related community section of the development Faizabad to infrastructure. Eshkashim road, provision of (b) Construction construction supervision services supervision provided. services, provision (c) Support for project of support for the implementation by MPW investment provided. program, capacity development of (d) Capacity of AfRA AfRA, and developed. improvement of the efficiency of the (e) Efficiency of traffic traffic along traversing the territory of CAREC Corridors 5 the recipient along and 6) CAREC Corridors 5 and 6 improved. 47210-001 Transport Sector (a) Transport sector On track. Team of consultants Government of Afghanistan Not yet due. Full mobilization has yet to be (TA8687) Master Plan assessment and road visited Afghanistan in Q1 2015. endorsement of updated achieved. Update map produced. master plan, including list of physical transport (b) Final national interventions to be transport master plan implemented in medium- to produced. long-term, and required reforms to transport sector.

Sector: Agriculture and Natural Resources

39370-022 (0126) Agriculture Market (a) Five slaughterhouses (a, c & d) Slaughterhouse (a) Increased value of (a &b) Farm level collection centers Q1 2015 performance rating Infrastructure constructed—2 in Kabul construction ongoing. As of 31 horticulture commodities contracts being awarded and works was ‘on track’. Project and 3 in provincial cities— March 2015, cumulative progress (export and domestic) by 7% ongoing. by 2012. of the slaughter-houses package by 2013. Only able to fully mobilize more was 57%. (c & d) Slaughterhouse construction than 3 years than scheduled; (b) Management contracts (b) 7% increase in domestic work ongoing; progress significantly closing date extended from with private entities signed (b) Government has yet to finalize consumption of horticulture slow since start of Q4 2014 due to June 2014 to December 2015. and implemented by a PPP policy to guide products by 2013. financial constraints of contractor 2011. engagement with private sector. (request for contract price increase Slow progress has been due to Although progress was made on (c) Increased consumption of and extension of deadline for weak capacity and financial

110 Appendix 6

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress development of the hygienically slaughtered meat completing construction work under problem of slaughterhouses (c) Throughput of at least slaughterhouse operational in Kabul and major provincial review by MAIL.) contractor and delays in 3,000 head of large manual, management modality, cities by at least 15% by 2013. finalizing contract award ruminants and 15,000 and compliance with the health packages and shipment of head of small ruminants and hygiene standards. (d) Increased value of livestock construction supplies through per slaughterhouse by-products (hides and Pakistan (i.e., inability to get realized at full capacity by (e) Land for all 19 centers has casings) by 7% by 2013. required documents from tax 2013. been officially transferred and and customs departments). handed over to the contractor for (d) Reduced urban waste establishment of the farm level from animal slaughter by collection centers. Current at least 20% by 2012. progress of the package (as of 31 (e) About 200 farmer March 2015) is 55%. market facilities (f) A total of 113 cooperatives are constructed and surveyed and 19 of them operational by 2013. (including women cooperatives) (f) Farmers’ associations selected for intervention. Training and groups, including will commence when facilities are women’s producer operational. associations, manage the (g) Proposed to be dropped given facilities efficiently. the uncertainty on legal status of (g) MOCI dried fruit and the nuts and raisins institute. nut testing laboratories Under ADB review and discussion internationally accredited with MAIL/PMO. by 2012. 36222-013 Community-Based (a) By 2016, farmers (a) 51 out of 120 subprojects By 2016, (a) the total area To be assessed at completion. Assessed as ‘on track’ in terms of (9165) Irrigation Rehabilitation served by all 120 awarded in Balkh, Baghlan, Ghor and irrigated by rehabilitated disbursements and awards and in and Development rehabilitated irrigation Samangan Provinces completed and systems has increased by terms of achievement of outputs. systems are receiving handed over to communities (while 20% compared to 2013 sufficient water. the rest are at different stages of baseline. (Project expected to close in implementation). March 2017.) (b) All CDCs have issued (b) Crop area irrigated by each completion certificates for Additional 18 subprojects approved rehabilitated system has the irrigation system for implementation. increased by at least 10% rehabilitation subprojects from the 2013 baseline. in their communities. (b) CDCs have confirmed completion of 51 sub-projects and issuance of (c) Irrigated crop yields in (c) Completed training of completion certificates will be areas served by rehabilitated 500 community members completed by 31 May 2015. systems have increased by (both men and at least 20 10% from the 2013 baseline. women). (c) Ongoing. 195 members from 39 CDCs have received training in (d) By 2014, 2 of 27 agricultural management, watershed DRRD-based project- management and conservation, funded positions are filled program management, construction by women. project and quality control, and conflict management; 12 women from (e) All required reports are 39 CDCs have participated in the completed and submitted training program.

Appendix 6 111

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress as scheduled. (d) Achieved. (f) Contract award and disbursement projections (e) Ongoing. Quarterly reports for are met as scheduled 2013 and 2014 submitted and annual throughout the report for 2014 submitted on 4 April implementation period. 2015. (g) Monitoring and (f) Contract award and disbursement evaluation action plan is projection achieved and Project is on implemented as track. scheduled. (g) Achieved. 36252-013 Western Basins Water By end of project, (a) an (a) RBA established but respective (a) Planned surface water (a) River Basin Master Plan Q1 2015 performance rating (2227/0033/ Resources Management RBA consistent with councils have yet to be established allocation and basin management drafted and for MEW review. was ‘on track’ in terms of 0052) Government policy in as required by law. processes institutionalized by end disbursement and contract place. of Project. Sustainable (b) Project command area awards. (b) Work is ongoing. development of irrigated increased from 15,775 ha to (b) Entitlement registry in 36,889 ha, 82% of the Hari Problems in disbursement were (c) Completed. agriculture with groundwater place and basin irrigation starting by end of Project in the Rud target of 45,000 ha; 46% due to delays in contract scheduling procedures in (d) Draft policy submitted to Hari Rud River Basin. increase in spring irrigation awards, weak administrative place. Ministry of Energy and Water. area. performance of contractors, (b) Increased equity and efficiency slow progress in physical (c) Groundwater (e) Not quantified, although of water distribution (especially at (c) Water use efficiency in works, lengthy processing of permitting and completion report of the tail end), expanded spring Afghanistan is 35%. invoices and overambitious management information Government indicated farmers are irrigation area by 25%, and disbursement and contract system in place. (d) Average wheat yield in pleased with the upgraded systems summer or perennial irrigation irrigated condition increased award targets during midterm (d) Groundwater policy providing more water and requiring area to be at least 30% of irrigable from 3.3 MT/ha in 2009 to 4.8 review. less maintenance work. WUAs area in subprojects. drafted and enforcement MT/ha at project completion. Border issues also contributed mechanisms in place. were also seen as more efficient and participatory. (c) Field application efficiency of (e) The baseline cropping to delays (i.e., custom (e) Community 95% water at farm level increases by intensity of the project area clearance certification for heavy satisfied with rehabilitation (f) Project resulted in improving 15% in areas that received OFWM was 74% in 2009. As of equipment). and upgrading activities, 49,197 ha of irrigated land. Work in training by end of Project. December 2014, 2,887 contributions to Murghab was not feasible due to farmers (1,687 men and 1,200 security issues. (d) Consistent average wheat rehabilitation and yields of at least 2.8 tons/ha in women) have been trained on upgrading resources in all (g) Achieved. 5 core and 1 main subprojects within 2 years after horticultural crops (vegetables subprojects, and canal project implemented in Sia rehabilitation and upgrading. and fruits) with the purpose of consultation and Sang, and 9 office buildings increasing cropping intensity confirmation with women constructed. (e) Cropping intensities increase in the project areas. over non-irrigation by average of 300% and yields by infrastructure in all (h) No resettlement issues and 20% for summer season (f) Achieved. As of December subprojects community. revised IR category is C with no horticulture crops. 2014, a total of 2,015 women impact. including 350 poor and (f) 45,000 ha of irrigation (f) Over 2,000 women and landless (sharecroppers) had rehabilitated and (i) Completed. Zinda Jan, Kohsan, landless have improved been trained on agriculture upgraded in the Hari Rud Ghoryan, Jui Nau, Sia Sang and livelihoods from income and livelihood River Basin and 10,000 Yahya Abad surveys completed. generating activities. ha in the Murghab River (g) As of December 2014, see (j) OFWM training materials have (g) At least 20 professional and progress on outputs item (l)

112 Appendix 6

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress Basin; 100% of targeted been prepared and training technical people trained for Provided orientations to 30 R&U completed (by year 7 conducted to 200 farmers. 100% various river basin management technical staff of PMU on of the Project). target of farmer training on OFWM tasks, 30 professional and basin management, irrigation has been completed. technical people trained for engineering, and agriculture (f) At least 15 water various irrigation engineering and livelihood. 420 WUA resources development (k) 5,516 farmers (3,501 men and tasks, at least 12 professional and office holders were trained on projects implemented by 2,015 women) have been trained. technical people trained for water management. 5,516 Project end or equivalent Of them, 724 men and 350 women agriculture and livelihood services, farmers were trained on amount of additional are poor and landless (share at least 400 mirabs trained for improvement of water rehabilitation and croppers). 100% target of farmer water management, and at least management and agricultural upgrading. training has been achieved. 3,500 farmers to receive training practices. Of these, 1,074 are (g) At least 90% of mirabs (l) Trained 563 professional, for improved water management poor and landless (share in all subprojects involved technical and support staff and agricultural practices. croppers). 105% target of WUA training and 100% target in capacity development (HMRBA-PMU-MEW, MAIL, and (h) Self-sustaining mirab/ activities. Herat University). Provided of farmer training have been community irrigation organization achieved. orientations to 30 technical staff of maintaining and upgrading (h) Resettlement plans as PMU on basin management, needed that are fully irrigation systems in all (h) 6 WUAs trained and irrigation engineering, and subprojects by end of Project; registered, additional 12 compliant with ADB agriculture and livelihood. Contract guidelines. increase resource flows to mirabs WUAs have been established management and administration is by 33% by end of Project. and trained, of which 10 are in (i) Statistically valid ongoing. Candidates for Master the process of registration. stratified sample for lower Degree training finalized and Hari Rud River Basin with signing of agreement with AIT is report and underway. recommendations after (m) Achieved. 1.5 years. (n) 95% completed; further work is (j) Training materials, ongoing to fully transfer the trainers, delivery knowledge established under PMU strategies, and M&E in to MEW. place for OFWM and enhanced cropping opportunities subcomponent activities by year 2.5 of Project. (k) Training materials, trainers, delivery strategies, and M&E in place for livelihoods subcomponent activities by year 2.5 of Project. (l) Detailed capacity development program with materials and delivery mechanisms in place by year 2 and international training completed by year 5 of

Appendix 6 113

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress the Project. (m) All PMU reporting and financial management activities on schedule and satisfactory to ADB by year 1 of the Project. (n) MEW fully staffed and capable of managing project activities by year 6 of the Project. 42091-022/032 MFF 0033 Water (a) Construction of (a) Contractor has completed the (a) Rehabilitation and upgrading of (a) Rehabilitation and Project rated ‘on track’ as of (0167/0170/ Resources Development Bangala Weir and excavation of the main structure irrigation systems serving at least upgrading for approximately June 2015. PPTA 7088) Investment Program - rehabilitation of and has started the excavation of 100,000 ha by 2015. 23,100 ha completed; target for Tranche 1 Samarkandian and Nari river trenches. Concrete pours are completion extended to 2018. Project has been extended Shahi Weirs by 2014. underway (since May 2015 and (b) At least 5,000 ha and Yangi from 2015 to 2018. ongoing). Qala town have significantly (b) To be assessed upon (b) Rehabilitation and reduced flood risk by 2014. completion. Detailed design is Project issues: (a) Continued upgrading completed for (b) 207 structures of the original being finalized. ADB no delay in response to ICB no 85% of main canal scope of 250 were completed. A (c) WUAs and Northern Basin RBA objection has been granted, objection letter, (b) structures (70,000 ha) request to reduce the scope of the sustainably managing irrigation and and contract being awarded contracting issues with NGO by 2014. project was submitted for ADB’s water resources according to the and contractor mobilized to as firm no longer wants to be consideration in order to close the National Water Law, with declining site. in Afghanistan beyond (c) Improvement contract. external assistance and providing December 2014, and (c) completed for 15% of O&M with sustainable financial (c) 28 irrigation associations political changes. secondary and tertiary (c) Contract awarding completed in arrangements by 2014. were formed in early 2014. structures (12,000 ha) February 2015. Reasons for startup and by 2014. (d) Women's time spent collecting (Withdrawal of consultant firm implementation delays: (a) (d) For national competitive bidding, water reduced by 20%. affected validity of NGO sub- poor quality of RFP for the (d) The NVDA irrigation bid evaluation report under review, contracting for WUA and on-farm water management system is providing international competitive bidding Irrigation Association support; activity, (b) reorganization of water with design contract has been awarded still pending as of mid-2015). the management structure discharge in 100% of the and the redefining of program command areas (20,000 (e,n) Progress slowed down as (d) To be assessed upon roles and responsibilities, (c) ha) in Nangahar consultant firm moved out of completion. security situation continues to province by 2013. Afghanistan. Need to address NGO deter many reputable subcontracting issues. international consultancy (e) At least 150 firms from bidding for work, improved water access (f-g) Work in progress. Contractor has started making of pre-cast (d) difficulty to attract and points in the lower Balkh retain quality staff, (e) limited Basin and NVDA concrete blocks for bank protection. Construction of intake depends on capacity of implementing irrigation system by agencies to manage both 2014. the amount of the flow in the river and may not start until late consultant and civil work (f) Completed flood September 2015. contracts, and (f) 2013 embankment in Yangi flooding which destroyed an Qala and head regulator (h) Capacity development plan was embankment in project site. for Yetim Tapa irrigation approved by ADB on 20 May 2014 system in Takhar and capacity building program is

114 Appendix 6

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress Province by 2013. expected to be completed by Q4 2016. (g) Gabions and other quick gestation works (i-k) Ongoing. constructed to protect 3 km of banks from (l) 28 irrigation associations had erosion where been registered with MAIL by Dec. interventions are in 2013. place in Kundoz and (m) Program approved by MEW in Takhar provinces by 2014. 2013. (o) NVDA Charter approved in (h) Capacity 2014; however, business plan has development program yet to be prepared. based on the mandate of the Water Law for the (p) PMOs and project coordination Northern Basin RBA office established. completed by 2014. (q) Suffered from delays. (i) Sustainable management and (r) Ongoing. financial plan for RBA (s) Complied with from 2010 to O&M drafted by 2014 2012. Audit reports for 2013-2015 (j) Operational rules for have yet to be completed. the Balkh river weirs (t) Achieved. Implementation of adopted by 2014. Tranche 2 currently ongoing. (k) Water resources management strategy and a master plan for the Northern Basins RBA prepared by 2013. (l) WUA program delivered that (i) legally registers WUAs, (ii) provides training for management and O&M of the irrigation system, and (iii) develops plans and procedures for financial sustainability of the WUAs in the Lower Balkh River Basin and NVDA irrigation by 2014. (m) National Flood Management Program in MEW initiated with a 5- year plan for its development, by 2013.

Appendix 6 115

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress

(n) Plan adopted for an irrigation service delivery agency that sustainably manages and provides O&M for the NVDA irrigation system by 2013. (o) NVDA institutional reform and business plan prepared by 2011. (p) Establishment of PMOs for MEW and MAIL, and PIOs for MEW to support project activities. PMOs and PIOs operational with minimal support from the consultants prior to 2013. (q) Tranche 1 executed following the proposed implementation schedule. (r) A PPMS established within 6 months of grant effectiveness. (s) Audit reports submitted within 6 months for each fiscal year. (t) Program Development Facility in MEW to prepare new projects and MFF tranches. Feasibility studies, safeguards and detailed design prepared by the Program Development Facility to support tranche 2 (by year 3 of the Program), and to support tranche 3 (by year 5 of the

116 Appendix 6

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress Program).

42091-043 Water Resources (a) Shahrawan intake (a-d) Advertisement of In 2019, 74,300 ha in LKIS received To be assessed at project completion. Q1 2015 performance (0362) Development Investment supplies water according tender documents. sanctioned irrigation supplies; rating was ‘on track’. Program - Tranche 2 to the original discharge for 100% of the time (e-k) Activities have yet to Cropping intensity in 2019 in LKIS is Project effectiveness was during critical crop periods commence. 155% (2013 = 122%); delayed due to grant in 2018. agreement conditions (l) Still at the stage of Cropping intensity in 2019 in LKIS requiring compliance with (b) Shahrawan canal advertising tender Zone I is 170% (2013 = 142%); Tranche 1 covenants for documents. rehabilitated to equitably Cropping intensity in 2019 in LKIS recruitment of audit firm discharge the original 60 (m) PMU establishment Zone II is 117% (2013 = 85%); and appointment of m3/s 100% of time in was delayed due to project coordination office critical growth periods in government decree on Area of annual crops in 2019 is coordinator. entire command area in 115,311 ha (2013 = 90,446 ha) holding the recruitment 2018. process; PPMS under the (c) Archi intake supplies Tranche 1 developed; water according to the however, further work will original discharge for 90% be done to improve the of the time during critical system and linked it to crop periods in 2018. Tranche 2 activities. (d) Archi canal capacity reverts to original 36m3/sec in 2018 (2013 =30 m3/sec) (e) Improved capacity of water management and agricultural extension institutions: 22 WUAs are operational in 2018 (2013 = 0). (f) 40 IAs are operational in 2018 (2013 = 0). (g) 150 river basin authority and sub basin agency staff trained in water management in 2018 (2013 = 0). (h) 50 DAIL staff trained in irrigation extension and OFWM in 2018 (2013 =0). (i) 1,500 farmers per year received training on climate-resilient practices

Appendix 6 117

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress in 2018 (2013= 0). (j) From 2015, 25 participatory technology development demonstrations are conducted across LKIS each year (2013 = 0). (k) An irrigation service fee applied across all of the LKIS in 2017. (l) Contracts are awarded and completed on time and within contingencies. (m) Quarterly progress reports, annual reports, audit reports, are submitted within four weeks of due date. 45259-001 Enhanced Agricultural (a) 10,000 community (a) 2,180 farmers (a) Potato (marketed) yield increased Works are ongoing for the community- Q1 2015 Performance (9167) Value Chains for members (10% women) (21.8%) have been from 14 t/ha in 2013 to 20 t/ha in level and on-farm pilot storage for both rating was ‘on track’. Sustainable Livelihoods trained in improved trained from a total of 2016. onions and potatoes. All on-farm agricultural practices by 10,000. demonstration sites have been Project had a slow start 2016. (b) Onion (marketed) yield is established: 20 in Bamyan; 10 in Kabul given the delay in (b.i) Ongoing. Baseline increased from 15 t/ha in 2013 to 20 Province; and 11 in Parwan Province. awarding contracts, initial (b) (i) Average potato surveys completed Q1 t/ha in 2016. lack of understanding in storage losses reduced 2014 and the feasibility Edible oil refinery buildings in Nangarhar ADB's requirements for from 40% in 2013 to 2% in study report shows that (c) Area planted to oilseed crops by and Balkh have been completed and disbursement, and 2016, and (ii) Average onion the losses in potato farmers supplying oil processing turned over to farmer cooperatives, with restrictive policies of the storage losses reduced storages reduced from facilities in Jalalabad and Mazar-e- current status being operational with government (on annual from 40% in 2013 to 2% in 42% to 1.3%. Sharif increased by 10% by 2016 refined oil produced to market. budget allocation for the 2016 [Construct 1,316 on- compared to 2013 baseline survey. project). farm and 75 community (b.ii) Baseline surveys 407 (31%) on-farm potato storage potato storage facilities and completed Q1 2014, facilities completed (58% ongoing), 24 make operational (36 while reduction in loses (32%) community storage facilities, 205 months) (ii) Construct 818 of onion storage will be (25%) on-farm onion storages -ongoing on-farm and 80 community determined in 2015 and completed, and 36 (45%) onion storage facilities and when the stored onions community storages completed, 12 make operational (27 are transported to (15%) ongoing. months)]. market.

(c) Market price of edible oil (c) Contracts for supply produced from Jalalabad of equipment and civil and Mazar-e-Sharif facilities works awarded in increases from AF70 per March and May 2014,

118 Appendix 6

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress liter in 2013 to AF110 per respectively. Civil works liter in 2016. and equipment installation being (d) (i) Contract awards and completed, an disbursements carried out assessment of the price on schedule throughout the impact to be done soon. implementation period, (ii) Monitoring and evaluation (d) Achieved. M&E plan action plan implemented as established in Q2 2014, scheduled, (iii) All required quarterly reports for reports (technical and 2014 submitted. administrative) completed and submitted as scheduled. 48326-001 Northern Flood-Damaged (a) By 2018, in MRRD Activities have yet to By 2018, (a) 48,280 ha of flood Activities have yet to commence. Project performance rated (0411/0412) Infrastructure Emergency project areas: 500 km of commence. affected irrigable area of traditional as ‘potential problem’. Rehabilitation Project canals of traditional schemes brought back to production schemes reconstructed (2014 baseline = 0 ha). Contract award was (2014 baseline = 0); 6 km of delayed due to PMO staff retaining walls of traditional (b) 16,500 ha of flood affected recruitment (as per new schemes reconstructed irrigable area of formal schemes presidential decree staff (2014 baseline = 0); 700 brought back to production (2014 recruitment was on hold intakes of traditional baseline = 0 ha). until appointment of new schemes reconstructed ministers). New minister (2014 baseline = 0); 20 for MRRD was appointed small dams reconstructed in March 2015 while for (2014 baseline = 0); 946 km MEW in April 2015. MRRD of rural roads reconstructed has progressed with staff (2014 baseline = 0); 128 recruitment and about bridges reconstructed (2014 60% are on board. baseline = 0). (b) By 2018, in MEW project areas 154 culverts of formal schemes reconstructed (2014 baseline = 0); 22 km of canals of formal schemes reconstructed (2014 baseline = 0); 6 intakes and/or weirs of formal schemes reconstructed (2014 baseline = 0). (c) By 2018, contracts are awarded and completed on time and within contingencies; and quarterly progress, annual, and audit reports are submitted within 4 weeks of due date.

Appendix 6 119

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress

44411-022 Supporting Natural (a) Project and financial (a,b) Ongoing. (a) All projects in the ADB natural (a) Achieved. (TA 7994) Resources Operations management systems and resources portfolio implemented on procedures developed by (c,d) Achieved. schedule, starting 2013. (b-c) 6 out of 7 ongoing operations in the sector are currently assessed as end of 2012 and immediately used by project (b) Annual contract awards of each ‘on track’ in terms of contract awards staff. project meet projections, starting and disbursements. 2013. (b) High-level staff of implementing agencies (c) Annual disbursements of each attended capacity building project meet projections, starting workshops by end of 2012. 2013. (c) Implementing agency project implementation staff trained in project management by 2013. (d) Priority investment strategies developed: water resources sector plan is prepared by 2013. Sector: Finance 44457-012 Rural Finance (a) Timely adoption of Off track. Major change (a) Number of financial institutions that Target outcomes have been Implementation proven more (TA7983) Expansion action plans by financial in scope. provide rural finance doubles from 2010 changed to: (a) At least 10 difficult because the security institution and 72 loan to 2013 (benchmark to be established). financial institutions offer some situation has deterred many officers trained in rural form of Islamic banking by 2020 (7 potential firms. As TA requires finance risk (b) Number of financial institutions’ by 2013). work in rural areas, where the management (25% are service points (branches or mobile security situation is even more women) by mid-2013. facilities) in rural areas doubles from volatile, expressions of 2010 to 2013 (benchmark to be interest did not meet minimum (b) Sharia governance established). qualifications. This has also system and processes in led to a major change in place, template of Sharia (c) Number of rural residents’ deposit accounts in banks or microfinance scope, with TA's focus now on legal contracts available, Islamic finance and capacity and enactment of institutions increases by 20% from 2010 to 2013 (benchmark to be established). building to be undertaken legislation enabling outside of Afghanistan. Islamic finance by mid- 2013. (c) AIBF rural finance training programs implemented and 300 people trained (25% are women), and number of female loan officers at participating financial institutions doubles from 2010 to mid-2013.

120 Appendix 6

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress

(d) Regulations supporting rural finance, including Islamic finance adopted by 2013, and policy papers supporting rural finance, including Islamic finance, endorsed by Sharia board by mid-2013. Sector: Public Sector Management

40280 Support for (a) MOF effectively Off track. TA (a) Effective delivery of a With the economic and fiscal TA completion date has been extended thrice. (TA4964) Economic Policy manages various reform implementation has fiscally sustainable budget to crisis that Afghanistan faced in Additional TA funds were requested to cover Management programs. been extended achieve national priorities and 2014, TA played a key role in costs for additional consultancy services. (formerly Capacity several times to 15 reform objectives as outlined providing advice and support to Building for Ministry (b) Achievement of November 2015. in MOF’s strategic plan. authorities and MOF as well as of Finance) benchmarks of capacity Change in leadership of the country. building road maps. implementation (b) National advisors can Outcome accomplishment of TA effectively provide advisory (c) Fiscal implications of arrangement has to be discussed in the TCR. also been effected - services to minister’s and government policies and deputy ministers’ offices. priorities of ANDS are - instead of considered. recruiting individual consultants, (d) Improved human consultants are resource management hired through a firm. and MOF budget Despite a difficult preparation. and challenging year in 2014 (protracted election process and the security transition), direct support through technical advisory to the MOF played a key role in tackling challenges to rebuild the country’s economic and fiscal policy. TA already has tangible and visible accomplishments. Sector: Multisector

47263-001 Support for (a) Capacity building Off track. In March 2014, (a) New projects approvals Not yet due under revised timeline. Uncertainty in the overall (TA8470) Infrastructure workshops on project implementation arrangements, TA increase to $450 million in security situation during the Investments and design and amount (from $1.2 million to $1.95 April 2015 (baseline: $320 latter part of 2014 affected TA Policy implementation million), and completion date (from implementation.

Appendix 6 121

Output Outcome Issues Project Number/ Project Title Loan Number Planned Progress Expected Progress completed by 2015. 26 April 2015 to 31 October 2015) million in 2013). were modified/ extended to (b) Policy for improved enhance TA outcome and impact. (b) Contract awards from operation of road and AITF-funded projects railway authorities, and increase to $110 million by operation and April 2015 (baseline: $62 maintenance approved million in 2013). by March 2014. (c) Disbursements for AITF- (c) Demand-driven funded projects increase to communication tools $120 million by April 2015 (technical reports, (from $65 million in 2013). brochures) published by 2015. (d) Quarterly technical working group meetings convened starting October 2013. (e) Government’s request for AITF financing submitted in a timely manner starting in 2014. ADB = Asian Development Bank, AfRA = Afghanistan Railway Authority, AIBF = Afghanistan Institute of Banking and Finance, AIT = Asian Institute of Technology, AITF = Afghanistan Infrastructure Trust Fund, ANDS = Afghanistan National Development Strategy, CAREC = Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, CDC = community development council, DABS = Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat, DAIL = Department of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, DFID = Department for International Development, DRRD = Department of Rural Rehabilitation and Development, EA = executing agency, GiZ = Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, GWh = giga watt hour, ha = hectare, HIV/AIDS = human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, ICB = international competitive bidding, ICE = Interministerial Commission for Energy, IA = implementing agency, IR = involuntary resettlement, KfW = Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau, km = kilometer, kV = kilovolt, LKIS = Lower Kokcha Irrigation System, M&E = monitoring and evaluation, MAIL = Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, MEW = Ministry of Energy and Water, MFF = multitranche financing facility, MOCI = Ministry of Commerce and Industries, MOF = Ministry of Finance, MOMP = Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, MOT = Ministry of Transport, MPW = Ministry of Public Works, MRRD = Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development, MT = metric ton, MW = megawatt, NEPS = North East Power System, NGO = nongovernment organization, NVDA = Nangarhar Valley Development Authority, OFWM = off-farm water management, O&M = operation and maintenance, PIO = project implementation office, PMO = project management office, PMU = project management unit, PPMS = project performance monitoring system, PPP = public-private partnership, PPTA = project preparatory technical assistance, RBA = river basin authority, RFP = request for proposal, TA = technical assistance, TCR = technical assistance completion report, t/ha = tons per hectare, USAID = United States Agency for International Development, USFOR-A = US Forces for Afghanistan, WUA = water user association.

122 Appendix 7

PROGRESS UNDER RESULTS FRAMEWORK FROM COUNTRY OPERATIONS BUSINESS PLAN 2013–2014

The results framework of the Country Operations Business Plan (COBP) 2013–2014 was deemed to be more appropriate to assess under this CPS final review because of the weaknesses inherent in the CPS 2009–2013 results framework (see paras. 26 and 28 of the main report).1 Progress towards the achievement of targets is shown below.

ADB Contribution Government Sector Objectives CPS Sector Outcome2 Indicators3 Progress Transport Increased movement of Improved low cost, (a) By 2017, increased connectivity; (a) 642.65 km of road goods and services and reliable transport percentage of project areas constructed/improved/rehabilitated; better connectivity for connectivity for goods connected to the regional highway construction/ reconstruction/rehabilitation/ people and businesses. and people within network by paved roads increased improvement of additional 707 km of road in Afghanistan and cross- to 90% from 70% in 2010. progress. border. (b) Increased average intercity travel (b) 65%-75% decrease in travel time. speed. On national highway (c) Traffic volume increased four times in 2012 network average speed increased compared to 2005; 40%-49% decrease in from 35 km/h in 2010 to at least 50 taxi and bus fares; vehicle operating cost km/h in program areas by 2017. savings range between 25%-41%. (c) Increased availability of intercity (d) No clear data but reports of reduced travel freight and passenger services— time to nearest health, primary education, Volumes of traffic along project and other essential services. roads increased by 30% from 2011. (e) 6,500 tons per day (2012); freight transport (d) Travel time to the nearest primary fares reduced by 45%; travel time reduced school, health care facility, or other to about 1 hour. essential service in target areas decreased by 25% or 15 minutes Other achievements: from the existing average of 1 hour • 50% increase in number of flights and in 2011. passengers in rehabilitated airports. (e) Increase in freight transported by • At least 10,000 refugees and displaced

1 The Country Operations Business Plan 2009–2013 was also the first COBP for Afghanistan. 2 As agreed with the Independent Evaluation Department. 3 Based on the Country Operations and Business Plan 2013-2014. Appendix 7 123

railway to 65 million tons per year. persons obtained opportunities for livelihood. • Capacities of Ministry of Public Works, Ministry of Tourism, and Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation enhanced. Energy Sustainable and reliable Improved access to (a) Grid-connected electrification ratio (a) Electrification rate is 30% in 2015. grid-connected power affordable and reliable increased from less than 10% in (b) Power supply increased to 658 MW in 2014. supply in northern, energy to most 2007 to 30% in 2017. eastern, and southern households. (c) According to DABS, systems loss stands at (b) North East Power System capable Afghanistan. 25% in 2015. of supplying 150 MW in 2009 increased to 1,000 MW of (d) Electricity law approved by Cabinet and connected load in 2017. awaiting passage by Parliament. (c) Reduction in system losses from 50% in 2007 to 30% by 2017. (d) Electricity Law enacted giving full financial and operational autonomy to DABS by 2014.

Agriculture and Natural Resources Improve agricultural Improved food self- (a) Rehabilitation and upgrade of (a) Command area serving 60,389 ha. production and reduce sufficiency and increased irrigation systems serving at least (b) Not available during review. poverty. agriculture exports. 50,000 ha by 2019. (c) 74 community development councils are (b) At least 15,000 ha of new irrigated able to undertake small scale operations area. and maintenance; 51 subprojects have been (c) Water user associations and river handed over to their respective community basin agencies in project area by development councils; 4 water users investment program managing associations have been trained and irrigation and water resources registered. according to the National Water River Basin Authority established but still Law, and (with minimal external required to organize a Council; technical assistance) providing O&M through expertise has yet to be enhanced. sustainable financial arrangements, ongoing through 2019. (d) Not all subprojects have measured command areas; but available information (d) By December 2015, the total area

124 Appendix 7

irrigated by rehabilitated systems shows that irrigated areas increased by increased by 20% compared to more than 100% by project completion 2012 baseline. (compared to pre-project condition). (e) By December 2015, the crop area (e) Project information available shows wheat and yields irrigated by each yield increase by 45% (compared to 2009 rehabilitated system increased by at baseline). least 10% compared to 2012 baseline.

Appendix 8 125

PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT OF NONSOVEREIGN OPERATIONS, 2009 TO MID-2015

Table A8.1: Development Impact Overall Project Title/Loan Development Impact Evaluation Environmental, Social, Health, and Number Private Sector Development Business Success Economic Sustainability Rating Safety performance. Telecom Highly successful Excellent. Roshan has become Satisfactory. Roshan’s subscriber Excellent. Contributed to job Satisfactory. Development the largest private investor and base grew from 158,000 in 2004 to creation (97% of Roshan’s staff are Company of taxpayer in Afghanistan, 5 million in 2011. In 2011, Afghan nationals and 20% are Afghanistan (Roshan) accounting for about 5% of the coverage reached 230 cities and women) and setting of industry (Phase 3: 7281/2431) Afghan government's overall towns across 34 provinces, standards. revenue in 2010. covering 60% of the population; Promoted innovative services, including M-Paisa (mobile money transfer) and Malomat (mobile agricultural trade data service). As of March 2011, M-Paisa had 181,311 subscribers. Afghanistan Highly Successful Excellent. ADB’s presence in Excellent. Profitability from a net Excellent. Afghanistan International Excellent. Afghanistan International International Bank Afghanistan’s finance sector has loss in 2007 to a net profit in 2008. Bank contributes to job creation and Bank has complied with these policies (7199) catalyzed the entry of more Financial internal rate of return taxes to the government. Real and no breach has occurred. It also has financial institutions (i.e., 5 local yielded a result of 154%. economic return on invested capital environmental due diligence policies banks and 6 international after adjustment for inflation and procedures that are embedded in financial institutions entered computed at 56% its documents, specifically in its articles financial market in the last 5 of association and credit policy. The years). bank’s environmental management system revolves around the exclusion list of prohibited industries, which is an integral part of its credit risk management. Afghanistan International Bank conducts environmental due diligence and applies the equator principles in relation to its environmental management system. It has complied with ADB’s social safeguard policies and no involuntary resettlement or impact on indigenous peoples resulted from its activities. Political Risk Successful Below expectations. The Guarantee for the assessment attempted to strike Afghanistan a balance between giving ADB’s Investment Guarantee nonsovereign component credit Facility (2091) for bringing about the overall success of Afghanistan Investment Guarantee Facility and the lower than expected contribution of ADB’s second loss political risk guarantees. Note: The nonsovereign investment for Sungas LLC was cancelled.

126 Appendix 8 Table A8.2: ADB Investment Profitability, Work Quality, and Additionality

Project Title/Loan ADB Work Quality ADB Investment Profitability Screening, appraisal, and ADB's Additionality Number Monitoring and Supervision Role and contribution structuring of the project Telecom Development Satisfactory. Satisfactory. The ADB appraisal team clearly identified the key strengths of the company. In addition, Excellent. In terms of political Company of ADB closely tracked Roshan’s progress, highlighting developments, and monitoring actions, key risk mitigation and financial Afghanistan (Roshan) project milestones, key risks, and development impact assessment. additionality: Catalyzed (Phase 3: 7281/2431) commercial financing through the provision of direct loan and political risk guarantee. ADB used many of its financing instruments to aid Roshan’s growth. Without ADB participation, the expansion program would likely have been scaled down and/or delayed. ADB's added value, particularly in loan processing for phases 2 and 3, stems from its experience and expertise in the country, which gave other lenders the confidence to participate in the transaction. Afghanistan Excellent. Real net equity Satisfactory. ADB opted to make Excellent. ADB’s Capital Satisfactory. ADB had Satisfactory. Afghanistan International Bank financial internal rate of return an equity investment in Markets and Financial Sectors significant role in the International Bank was able (7199) exceeded the minimum return Afghanistan International Bank Division monitors Afghanistan establishment of to include Citibank as one of requirements defined at approval instead of granting a loan for the International Bank’s operational Afghanistan International its correspondent banks. This of 1.3 times. As of mid-2015, following reasons: (i) an equity and financial performance Bank’s corporate welcome addition has ADB has received $8.2 million investment will show ADB’s through monthly conference governance policies and increased Afghanistan through divestment of its commitment to reconstruct calls and quarterly board procedures, and adoption of International Bank’s exposure shareholding and $2.9 million Afghanistan, (ii) it will make ADB’s meetings. ADB’s shareholder’s international best practices, to the international financial through dividend payouts by the presence more significant in representative has regularly and ensured that these were market and potentially fosters Afghanistan International Bank. Afghanistan, and (iii) a direct attended the annual general adhered to; ADB helped international banking participation of ADB will encourage meeting in Kabul for the last 5 Afghanistan International relationships with notable foreign investors to take more risk years. Additionally, the project Bank establish a reputable international financial and invest in Afghanistan for its administration unit prepares the name in Afghanistan's institutions. ADB’s presence further development. periodic private sector semi- finance sector. has given the US Army annual report and an annual confidence in banking with monitoring report on AIB’s Afghanistan International performance. Bank, and this partnership was renewed for another year. Political Risk Guarantee ADB’s investment could not Met internal parameters. Less than optimal. Afghanistan Investment generate profitability (ADB’s Additionality of ADB’s Guarantee Facility nonsovereign component participation after Afghanistan (2091) incurred administrative expense Investment Guarantee without generating income). Facility’s successful establishment phase was limited (i.e., demand for ADB’s second loss political

Appendix 8 127

Project Title/Loan ADB Work Quality ADB Investment Profitability Screening, appraisal, and ADB's Additionality Number Monitoring and Supervision Role and contribution structuring of the project risk guarantee did not materialize given actual development of Afghanistan’s investment climate, which was not foreseen at the outset). Sources: Extended Annual Evaluation Reports and ADB staff.

128 Appendix 9

CPS FINAL REVIEW RATINGS METHODOLOGY

1. Each of the five evaluation criteria is given a weight of 20%. A rating between 0 and 3 is given for each criterion in each sector, whereby 0 is the lowest and 3 is the highest. Each sector was given a weight based on its share (in dollar value) of the ongoing portfolio during 2009– 2014, including projects that were approved before but ongoing during that period. Transport has the highest share at 51% and therefore the most weight in the ratings table. Each criterion rating score was then multiplied by the sector weight, and all of the sector weighted scores determine the overall criterion weighted score.

2. Health and social protection and industry and trade sectors were a fraction of a percentage in the overall portfolio and therefore were excluded in the ratings table. Excluding them does not affect the other sector percentages except for hundredths of a percentage point. Also, In line with the 2015 Guidelines for the Preparation of CAPEs and CPS Final Reviews, nonsovereign operations in Afghanistan have been factored into the sector assessments along with sovereign operations because of the small nonsovereign portfolio.

3. Cross-cutting objectives were included for the relevance and development impacts criteria following the 2015 Guidelines for the Preparation of CAPEs and CPS Final Reviews. A 10% weight was assigned to cross-cutting objectives. For the two criteria, the respective sector shares were adjusted by 10% to accommodate the share of the cross-cutting objectives.

4. The overall weighted score is obtained by multiplying each criterion weighted score by 20% and adding the individual criterion scores. The criteria scores shown below are rounded, but the actual overall weighted score is 1.64.

Development Relevance Effectiveness Efficiency Sustainability Impacts Overall Agriculture and Natural Resources 2 1 1 2 1 1.4 Energy 2 2 1 2 1 1.6 Transport 3 2 1 1 2 1.8 Finance 2 1 1 1 1 1.2 Multisector 2 1 2 1 2 1.6 Public Sector Management 2 1 1 1 1 1.2 Cross-Cutting Objectives 2 1 1.5 Weighted Score 2.5 1.8 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.64

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Agriculture and Natural Resources 11.25% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 11.25% 12.50% Energy 21.87% 24.30% 24.30% 24.30% 21.87% 24.30% Transport 46.07% 51.19% 51.19% 51.19% 46.07% 51.19% Finance 1.58% 1.76% 1.76% 1.76% 1.58% 1.76% Multisector 7.65% 8.50% 8.50% 8.50% 7.65% 8.50% Public Sector Management 1.57% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.57% 1.75% Cross-Cutting Objectives 10.00% 10.00%

Appendix 10 129

COMPARISON OF CPS FINAL REVIEW RATINGS AND CAPE RATINGS

1. The tables below compare the ratings between the Afghanistan Country Assistance Program Evaluation (CAPE)64 which covered 2002–2011 and the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) final review which covers 2009 to mid-2015. The CPS final review does not use the criterion of strategic positioning due to changes in the criteria under the 2015 Guidelines for the Preparation of CAPEs and CPS Final Reviews. Other differences between the CAPE and CPS final review rating methodology are noted below.

Table A10.1: Agriculture and Natural Resources Ratings

CAPE 2002–2011 Final review 2009 to mid-2015 Criteria Rating Criteria Rating Strategic positioning Satisfactory Relevance Relevant Relevance Relevant Effectiveness Less than effective Effectiveness Less than effective Efficiency Less than efficient Efficiency Less than efficient Sustainability Less than likely Sustainability Likely sustainable Development impact Less than satisfactory Development impacts Less than satisfactory Overall Less than successful Overall Less than successful

Table A10.2: Energy Ratings

CAPE 2002–2011 Final review 2009 to mid-2015 Criteria Rating Criteria Rating Strategic positioning Satisfactory Relevance Relevant Relevance Relevant Effectiveness Effective Effectiveness Effective Efficiency Less than efficient Efficiency Less than efficient Sustainability Less than likely Sustainability Likely sustainable Development impact Satisfactory Development impacts Less than satisfactory Overall Successful Overall Successful

Table A10.3: Finance Ratings

CAPE 2002–2011 Final review 2009 to mid-2015 Criteria Rating Criteria Rating Strategic positioning Satisfactory Relevance Less than relevant Relevance Relevant Effectiveness Less than effective Effectiveness Less than effective Efficiency Less than efficient Efficiency Less than efficient Sustainability Less than likely Sustainability Less than likely Development impact Less than satisfactory Development impacts Less than satisfactory Overall Less than successful Overall Less than successful

64 Asian Development Bank. 2012. Country Assistance Program Evaluation: Afghanistan. Manila.

130 Appendix 10

Table A10.4: Multisector Ratings

CAPE 2002–2011* Final review 2009 to mid-2015 Criteria Rating Criteria Rating Strategic positioning No rating Relevance No rating Relevance Relevant Effectiveness No rating Effectiveness Less than effective Efficiency No rating Efficiency Efficient Sustainability No rating Sustainability Less than likely Development impact No rating Development impacts Satisfactory Overall No rating Overall Successful * The CAPE allocated multisector components to other sectors.

Table A10.5: Nonsovereign Operations Ratings

CAPE 2002–2011 Final review 2009 to mid-2015* Criteria Rating Criteria Rating Development impact Satisfactory Development results No rating ADB investment Satisfactory ADB investment No rating profitability profitability ADB work quality Satisfactory ADB work quality No rating ADB additionality Satisfactory ADB additionality No rating Overall Successful Overall Successful * Nonsovereign operations were factored into other sector assessments because of the small amount of nonsovereign operations. Only an overall rating is given.

Table A10.6: Public Sector Management Ratings

CAPE 2002–2011 Final review 2009 to mid-2015 Criteria Rating Criteria Rating Strategic positioning Satisfactory Relevance Relevant Relevance Relevant Effectiveness Less than effective Effectiveness Less than effective Efficiency Less than efficient Efficiency Less than efficient Sustainability Less than likely Sustainability Less than likely Development impact Less than satisfactory Development impacts Less than satisfactory Overall Less than successful Overall Less than successful

Table A10.7: Transport Ratings

CAPE 2002–2011 Final review 2009 to mid-2015 Criteria Rating Criteria Rating Strategic positioning Satisfactory Relevance Relevant Relevance Highly relevant Effectiveness Effective Effectiveness Effective Efficiency Less than efficient Efficiency Less than efficient Sustainability Less than likely Sustainability Less than likely Development impact Satisfactory Development impacts Satisfactory Overall Successful Overall Successful

2. The overall rating from the CPS final review is 1.64, which is successful on the borderline. The CAPE gave an overall rating of 1.53, which is less than successful.