AFGHANISTAN RESEARCH AND EVALUATION UNIT Briefing Paper Series Noah Coburn and Anna Larson November 2009 VOTING TOGETHER Why Afghanistan’s 2009 Elections were (and were not) a Disaster Overview Contents The Afghan elections in 1. Contextual 2009 have become infamous Background and for low turnout, fraud and Political Landscapes ...2 insecurity. Delay in announcing 2. Voting Blocs. ..........7 the results and rumours of private negotiations have 3. Why Blocs Persist increased existing scepticism and Continue to of the electoral process among Shape Elections .... 10 national and international 4. Conclusions and commentators. What has been Ways Forward ...... 17 overlooked, however, is the way in which—at least at the local level—these elections About the Authors have been used to change the Noah Coburn is a sociocultural balance of power in a relatively anthropologist in Kabul with peaceful manner. In many the United States Institute of areas of Afghanistan, the polls Voters queuing in Qarabagh Peace. He is also a Presidential emphasised local divisions and Fellow at Boston University, groupings, and highlighted the importance of political and voting where he is completing a blocs (which can include ethnic groups, qawms,1 or even family doctoral dissertation on units) in determining political outcomes. Also, while perhaps not local political structures, “legitimate” by international standards, these elections reflected the conflict and democratisation highly localised cultural and social context in which they took place: in Afghanistan. He has a MA a context that is often patronage-based and in which power is gained from Columbia University. through constant struggle and dialogue between political groups and Anna Larson is a Researcher leaders. with the governance team at AREU, and has been This study presents the August 2009 electoral process as it played out working in Afghanistan on in three different areas of Kabul Province: Dasht-i Barchi, Qarabagh governance and gender and Istalif. In each of these locations, the presidential and provincial issues since 2004. She has council elections were key events in shifting the balance of local an MSc in Violence, Conflict and Development from power. These areas also demonstrate the different ways in which SOAS, University of London. voting blocs functioned and, while not representative of the country as a whole, provide valuable insights into the meaning and usefulness This study was partially funded of elections at the local level. by the Foundation of the Open Society Institute (FOSIA). 1 Often translated as “tribe” or “clan”; essentially a kinship group that can range considerably in size and scope. Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit Four key findings from this research are met, they can threaten noncooperation with discussed: the electoral system and civil disruption 1. Bloc voting in Afghanistan persists primarily Essentially, it is evident that blocs are and will because material and political rewards can continue to be important in shaping the way in be gained by emphasising to candidates the which elections in Afghanistan play out. value of a group’s support; voting individually minimises the potential political capital that These characteristics do not always fit well with can be gained during elections Western models of democratic elections. However, they demonstrate the way in which elections have 2. The combination of systematic fraud and been incorporated into local politics and used widespread accusations of corruption can as a way to promote the interests of different affect the power of winning and losing blocs; groups. This has important implications for the if the balance of power is changed in a certain way in which the process of democratisation is community, accusations of corruption, which likely to develop in Afghanistan. It is very clear are plausible given its widespread actual from this study that: occurrence, can be an important way of undermining the newfound legitimacy of the • Local elections matter and need to be victorious group prioritised by both national and international actors 3. Ambiguity about which candidate a bloc will support and even ambiguity about the • Elections in 2009 were not a complete failure: composition of the bloc itself is strategic, people did vote and power balances did because it allows greater space for negotiation. change at the local level; but In maintaining a degree of mystery over who • There is an urgent need to reassess they voted for, political blocs (and those (especially international) expectations of individuals that claim to represent them) can what an “electoral success” might look like. gain rewards from more than one elected In a context in which an ongoing insurgency official meant that much of the country was not represented at the polls, and with a flawed 4. The threat of violence, or even of a general voter registration process that has been a poor rejection of the current system, also generates substitute for a valid census, it was misguided political capital for groups—particularly in a to expect elections this year to be a test of system based on ambiguity. In the context of “democracy” in Afghanistan Afghanistan, in which the state does not hold a monopoly on violence, the threat of an uprising • Preparations for 2010 parliamentary elections can be portrayed by a dissatisfied opposition must begin now if the polls are to be seen as very real. Indeed, if opposition groups feel by the voting public—and the international that their needs and interests have not been community—as worthwhile and credible 1. Contextual Background and Political Landscapes 1.1 Kabul Province: Political overview provinces: Kabul is divided into 15 districts, of which the city is one.2 Each of the 14 remaining Kabul Province is at the centre of politics in rural districts has an appointed district governor. Afghanistan. The economic and political dynamics However, the official constituency for presidential, of the province are to a large extent determined parliamentary and provincial council elections (as in by the capital city, but some rural districts are the rest of the country) is the province as a whole. relatively remote and exist quite independently of urban life. 2 The city district is then subdivided into 18 urban “police districts” or sectors, which are all overseen by the Kabul Formal administrative structures exist as in other Municipality. 2 Voting Together: Why Afghanistan’s 2009 Elections were (and were not) a Disaster There were 41 candidates running in the others. In Kabul, with 217 candidates running presidential race, most of whom focused the for 29 seats, one provincial council candidate key aspects of their campaign in Kabul city. The won with as few as 2,918 votes. Concerns over majority of these candidates were relatively vote-splitting and that voting blocs might not be unknown to most voters, with only a handful of cohesive, and an awareness of the need to gain frontrunners dominating most local discussions of representation in the national government, were the elections, particularly the current president at the centre of voter discussion about the election Hamid Karzai, former minister of foreign and reflect many of the most important issues in affairs Dr Abdullah Abdullah, reformer Ramazan Afghan politics today. Ultimately, communities in Basherdost, and former minister of finance Ashraf the three areas studied met with mixed success Ghani. Some other candidates also stood out, in their attempts to get local representatives such as the well-known mujahiddin fighter Mullah elected to the provincial council: the residents of Rocketi, poet Abdul Latif Pedram, and Abdul Jalil Dasht-i Barchi succeeded in electing eight or nine Karim, a former child prodigy who is better known candidates, while two candidates from Qarabagh as “The Genius.” and one from Istalif were successful.4 Despite international focus on the presidential The three sites selected for this research were elections, some of the most heated and interesting chosen on account of their diverse political campaigning in Kabul took place for the provincial landscapes and their proximity to Kabul. This was council, with many voters going to the polls for largely a result of security constraints during the local issues rather than national ones.3 Kabul elections and a limited number of researchers Province has 29 seats allocated for its provincial being available for data collection. Nevertheless, council, nine of which are reserved for women. the areas were selected to be demographically, Thirty-three seats are allocated for the Wolesi geographically and politically diverse, Jirga (Afghanistan’s parliament), ten of which are representing a range of ethnicities and economic reserved for women. The single non-transferable strata. A total of 170 interviews were conducted vote (SNTV) system requires that all candidates in across the three areas, including in the lead-up, the province in the provincial council and Wolesi on election day, and afterwards. Where possible, Jirga elections compete against each other for the same respondents were interviewed before every vote, with the highest scoring candidates and after the polls. In addition to voters, 20 winning seats. This often results in local provincial council candidates, 20 individuals who communities that have more than one candidate worked for specific campaigns, and 30 community not gaining a representative in an elected body. leaders were interviewed. Due to the fact that the majority of the research team were male, it A concern that was raised repeatedly by voters was not possible to interview as many women as and provincial council candidates in interviews men. However, efforts were made to interview across the province was that multiple candidates as many women as possible. Researchers also representing a single community or political group spent a significant amount of time going through would split the vote. Thus, in Kabul Province, election results from the Independent Election a major local issue in these elections was how Commission (IEC) and comparing these results to a community with multiple candidates could responses by voters and candidates.