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Afghanistan Presidential Elections 2004-2014: the Electoral Challenges of Building Democracy in a Post-Conflict State

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Afghanistan Presidential Elections 2004-2014: the Electoral Challenges of Building Democracy in a Post-Conflict State Afghanistan presidential elections 2004-2014: The electoral challenges of building democracy in a post-conflict state Will McQuire A thesis in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy School of Humanities and Social Sciences UNSW Canberra 2015 Page 1 of 93 COPYRIGHT STATEMENT ‘I hereby grant the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all proprietary rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstract International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). I have either used no substantial portions of copyright material in my thesis or I have obtained permission to use copyright material; where permission has not been granted I have applied/will apply for a partial restriction of the digital copy of my thesis or dissertation.' AUTHENTICITY STATEMENT ‘I certify that the Library deposit digital copy is a direct equivalent of the final officially approved version of my thesis. No emendation of content has occurred and if there are any minor variations in formatting, they are the result of the conversion to digital format.’ ORIGINALITY STATEMENT ‘I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.’ Page 2 of 93 Abstract Since the allied invasion of Afghanistan in late 2001, there have been three presidential elections in Afghanistan, with the first democratic hand-over of power happening in 2014. Post-conflict elections have been widely debated by academics, with particular concern over the environment in which they are held and to which they contribute. If the elections are successful in producing a legitimate outcome, they can be used to further stability and nation building. If the elections are unsuccessful, then they risk a return to conflict. The lack of interference in the electoral process by politicians and non-relevant government agencies is one factor that adds to their legitimacy; if such interference occurs, the results are muddied. Legitimacy and unambiguous outcomes are crucial in determining the success of an election. This thesis explores the three Afghanistan presidential elections from 2004-2014 to assess if the elections are helping to enable – in this respect, at least - a post-conflict, democratically viable state. This thesis contributes to the literature on post-conflict democracy building in a measured way, by focusing on the three Afghanistan presidential elections to gauge whether they have been successful and effective in enabling a democratically viable Afghanistan, or at the very least, demonstrate an increasing democratic integrity. The findings present significant challenges to reports that the three presidential elections in Afghanistan bode well for democratic consolidation. They suggest, rather, that these elections have been to a greater or lesser extent rife with fraudulent votes, corrupt candidates and officials, and corruption by representatives of the government such as the Independent Election Commission. The corrosive effects of corruption are not restricted to the presidential elections, but have become an increasing part of everyday life in Afghanistan. What makes the situation worse is that the international community supporting democratization is more inclined for an electoral result to emerge that to highlight the shortcomings of the process. My conclusion is that Afghanistan continues to face major challenges in conducting free and fair elections, and while elections are not the entire picture of democratization, they are its symbolic and genuine centrepiece. As long as this situation continues, democratization will be compromised, perhaps fatally. Page 3 of 93 Contents Originality statement .......................................................................................................... 1 Abstract .............................................................................................................................. 2 Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................................... 5 A statement of the problem ............................................................................................... 5 Criteria for a successful election ........................................................................................ 8 Democracy .......................................................................................................................... 9 Relevant literature ............................................................................................................ 10 Description of remaining chapters ................................................................................... 12 Chapter 2: Building democracy in Afghanistan ................................................................ 13 A short history of Afghanistan .......................................................................................... 13 The United States and Afghanistan .................................................................................. 14 History of elections in Afghanistan................................................................................... 15 The Bonn Agreement ....................................................................................................... 16 The three presidential elections ....................................................................................... 18 Democratic challenges in Afghanistan ............................................................................. 20 Chapter 3: Openness ...................................................................................................... 23 Procedural transparency .................................................................................................. 23 Afghanistan media ............................................................................................................ 25 Corruption and transparency in the IEC, officials and the government........................... 27 Language barriers ............................................................................................................. 30 Summary........................................................................................................................... 32 Chapter 4: Universal Suffrage ......................................................................................... 34 The new role of women ................................................................................................... 35 Women presidential candidates .................................................................... 39 Increased education for women ...................................................................................... 41 Voter turnout for women ................................................................................................. 42 2004 election turnout ..................................................................................... 42 2009 election turnout ..................................................................................... 42 2014 election turnout ..................................................................................... 42 Summary........................................................................................................................... 43 Chapter 5: Secret Ballot .................................................................................................. 44 Ethnic differences in the provinces .................................................................................. 45 2004 election ethnicity differences ................................................................ 46 2009 election ethnicity differences ................................................................ 47 Page 4 of 93 2014 election ethnicity differences ................................................................ 48 Voting along tribal lines .................................................................................................... 49 Summary........................................................................................................................... 52 Chapter 6: Electoral Integrity .......................................................................................... 54 Ballot stuffing by citizens .................................................................................................. 54 Ballot stuffing in the 2004 election ...............................................................
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