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Elections and Conflict in Afghanistan

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Elections and Conflict in Afghanistan INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS Elections and Conflict in Afghanistan SHAHARZAD AKBAR AND ZUBAIDA AKBAR March 2011 n The 2009 presidential elections and 2010 parliamentary elections in Afghanistan saw a fall in the number of voters which points to growing public frustration and disillusionment with elections as a result of insecurity, systematic fraud, misuse of power and a lack of awareness about procedures. n The challenges to institutionalising elections as a democratic procedure in Afghanis- tan are numerous. The most prominent are the security situation, a lack of mecha- nisms to encourage meaningful party participation, weak state institutions and a lack of universal impartiality within government authorities. n The international community in the process has sent conflicting messages to the public about the independence and integrity of the process. Political influence from neighbouring countries and regional powers distorted elections results by providing support for specific candidates. Even international observer missions in Afghanistan are less effective in deterring fraud compared to other contexts because of security conditions. n In addition, three major socio-economic challenges influence the success (or lack thereof) of election participation and institutionalisation in Afghanistan: illiteracy, poverty and women’s unequal status in Afghan society. S. AKBAR AND Z. AKBAR | ELECTIONS AND CONFLICTS IN AFGHANISTAN Contents 1. Summary . 2 2. Current Situation. 3 3. Contextual Analysis. 3 3.1 Rules of the Game. 3 3.1.1 Electoral system. 4 3.1.2 Checks and Balances. 4 3.1.3 Security Sector and judicial system. 5 3.1.4 Traditional Authorities. .5 3.2 Key Players and Their Interests . 5 3.2.1 Political Leaders, Parties and Elites. 5 3.2.2 Electoral Institutions. .6 3.2.3 Media. .8 3.2.4 National Election Observers. .8 4. Socio-economic Reality. .8 5. External Influences . 9 6. Conclusions. 10 1 S. AKBAR AND Z. AKBAR | ELECTIONS AND CONFLICTS IN AFGHANISTAN 1. Summary missions, which are one of the main deterrents to fraud in other elections, are less effective in the Afghan con- The 2009 presidential elections and the 2010 parlia- text where security limits their observation and move- mentary elections in Afghanistan are the two most ments. recent and also probably the most publicly discussed national democratic events in the country's history. The In addition to political and specific procedural failures fall in the number of voters in both elections points and shortcomings, there are socio-economic factors that to growing public frustration and disillusionment with influence the success (or failure) of the process in the the process as a result of insecurity, systematic fraud, Afghan context. Three major challenges to election par- misuse of power by government authorities and the ticipation and institutionalisation are illiteracy, poverty warlords and lack of awareness about procedures. The and women's unequal status in Afghan society. Wide- claims of lack of impartiality on the part of stakehol- spread illiteracy, specifically among the older generation ders, including, but not limited to the Independent and women, prevents meaningful participation in the Elections Commission (IEC) and the Electoral Com- election process and a clear understanding of it. Poverty plaints Commission (ECC), also contributed to public and increasing income gaps have led to the alienation of mistrust. However, despite the numerous shortcom- a large proportion of young people from government. ings, the elections have led to public mobilisation and Democracy, which was earlier anticipated by many in have come to be regarded as the only legitimate way Afghanistan as a way of solving all problems, including to power for many. unemployment and poverty, has in their eyes failed to deliver and is not a system worth investing in anymore. The challenges to institutionalising elections as a de- Lack of women's participation both as election workers mocratic procedure in Afghanistan are numerous. The and observers and as voters has been a huge challenge challenging security situation in parts of the country to the fairness and universality of elections in parts of not only limits the activities of the IEC but also pre- the country. Particularly in the case of the parliamentary vents large parts of the population from voting and elections, women candidates also faced many challenges thus distorts both national and local results. Lack of during the campaign in terms of both security and tra- mechanisms to encourage meaningful party partici- ditional authorities that condemned their participation, pation strengthens individual power bases based on putting them in a less favourable position compared to intimidation and money and prevents the formation their male counterparts. of a strong political front. Weak state institutions also influence the election process and results negatively. While the 2009 presidential election was somewhat Lack of universal impartiality and professionalism on settled with the »re-election« of Hamid Karzai, the dis- the part of the Afghan army and police, the Afghan pute over the results of the parliamentary elections is still judicial system and local government authorities create going on (as of March 2011). Dissatisfied candidates have opportunities for manipulation and misuse and allow not only challenged the published results, but also the fraud to go unnoticed and unpunished. In the absence authority of the IEC and the ECC as election organisa- of security for voters and election workers and reli- tions. By taking the dispute to the Attorney General's able and accountable state institutions, fair, acceptable Office, the losing candidates have managed to involve a and transparent elections seem like a distant dream in large array of players. Overall, the dispute, which is not Afghanistan. yet resolved, illustrates the central problem that there is no body with the authority and credibility to make the External influences also impact election procedures in final call or to mediate. Afghanistan. The chaotic and confusing role of the in- ternational community sends the public conflicting mes- Despite all the challenges, it is still too early to judge the sages about the independence and integrity of the pro- elections a complete failure in the Afghan context. After cess. Political influence from neighbouring countries and all, ordinary Afghans are doing what they can to partici- regional powers distorts election results and provides pate and »own« the process. We owe it to them to give unfair and unaccounted for political and financial sup- elections another chance and perhaps to prepare better port for specific candidates. Even international observer for upcoming elections. 2 S. AKBAR AND Z. AKBAR | ELECTIONS AND CONFLICTS IN AFGHANISTAN 2. Current Situation At the end of 2010, Afghanistan faced many challenges. The transition from international authority in the areas In 2010, the second round of the parliamentary elec- of security and governance, as well as reconciliation and tions took place. Since 2004, the Afghan public has reintegration with regard to the insurgency were set to experienced two presidential elections, two rounds of be the buzz words of 2011 and beyond. The country provincial council elections and the first round of par- remains politically extremely volatile, while NATO coun- liamentary elections. If the recent elections had taken tries are looking for ways to decrease or withdraw their place as hoped, this process-in-the-making could have troops. In this situation, the interest in analysing these been a very constructive step towards building bridges past elections more thoroughly and aiming for a true re- between the Afghan government and the public by form of electoral structures remains limited. giving the latter the right to determine their political leaders and enhance political participation. However, this was not the case. The main factors in fraud (which 3. Contextual Analysis already in previous elections among other things en- abled increasingly sophisticated skills to commit fraud) 3.1 Rules of the Game were widespread insecurity and weak and distrusted electoral institutions. This caused many people to stay Much has been written on the rapid political change Af- at home due to growing frustration and disillusion- ghanistan underwent after the fall of the Taliban at the ment. end of 2001. The Petersberg Agreement was not a peace agreement, but an emergency conference to define an One consequence of fraud in previous elections is that ambitious road map for Afghanistan. Within two and a the Afghan people have come to believe that only the half years, the re-establishment of state institutions and most powerful and rich individuals have a real chance the introduction of democracy was supposed to be com- of winning. One major dilemma caused by insecurity pleted. While there were delays, the major steps were in many places in the south and south east concerns realised and included the Emergency Loya Jirga, the whether to open a large number of polling centres on establishment of an interim government under Hamid election day, which cannot be observed and thus are Karzai, and the Constitutional Loya Jirga in 2004, that very prone to fraud, or to keep a considerable number passed the new constitution of the Islamic Republic of of polling centres closed, reducing accessibility for voters Afghanistan and granted the president a wide range of and admitting that insecurity is widespread. powers with few checks and balances with regard to other institutions. The presidential elections on 9 Octo- In 2010, in addition to the abovementioned challenges, ber 2004 and the parliamentary elections on 18 Sep- disagreements between the president and the parlia- tember 2005 were seen as a »success« in terms of the ment on the election law led to growing mistrust of the nascent structures of the state and the novelty of the process. Pushing through a new version of the election concept of democracy. law prior to the parliamentary election, the president dis- regarded the parliament's demand for approval of the While up until 2005 the process was largely regarded as new law.
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