By PETER D.S. LYON a Thesis Submitted to the Faculty Of
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A SOLUTION FOR ETHNIC CONFLICT: DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE IN AFGHANISTAN, A CASE STUDY By PETER D.S. LYON A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts Department of Political Studies, Faculty of Arts University of Manitoba August, 2006 ABSTRACT This thesis considers Michael Ignatieff’s theory regarding ethnic conflict and applies Afghanistan as a case study. Ignatieff correlates the outbreak of ethnic violence to the breakdown of state government which creates societal anarchy and war. Ignatieff argues that ethnic relations can improve through the creation of democratic institutions. Afghanistan represents a model empirical case study to explore the central tenets of the Ignatieff thesis. Ignatieff’s argument is critically analyzed by assessing the viability of transplanting democratic institutions into Afghanistan. According to democratic theory a successful democracy requires a strong economy, a vibrant civil society, an advantageous institutional history and a positive security and geopolitical environment. Based on these five key variables it is reasonable to conclude that Afghanistan is not predisposed to pluralistic governance. Such analysis highlights the limitations of Ignatieff’s thesis as his theory is only relevant to those post-conflict societies that possess the requisite preconditions for democracy. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my appreciation to my advisor, Professor James Fergusson, for his support and encouragement throughout my Master’s degree. He truly made all the difference for me. Many thanks are also due to Dr. Lasha Tchantouridze for his willingness to discuss ideas and key theoretical concepts. Lasha was of great assistance due to his knowledge of Afghanistan and Central Asia. I would also like to note the helpfulness and support provided by Cathy Dunlop, Shirley McFaren, Linda Latour, and Pat Kruchak. Collectively, they ensured that deadlines were met and that all appropriate forms were completed. Thank you all. In addition I would also like to thank my family and friends for their patience and commitment to me throughout this process. In particular, my wife Alexandra’s unwavering support enabled the completion of this thesis. Thank you. ii DEDICATION I would like to dedicate this thesis to my wife, Alexandra Wright, and to my son, Fraser Lyon. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ii DEDICATION iii CHAPTER ONE BACKGROUND AND THEORY 1 Introduction 1 Background and Definitions 2 Ignatieff’s Theory of Ethnic Conflict 12 Western Liberal Political Philosophy 24 Theory of Pre-Conditions for Democracy 32 Civil Society as a Democratic Precondition 35 Socio-Economic Development as a Democratic Precondition 43 Institutional History, Political Culture and Democracy 53 Types of States 56 CHAPTER TWO AFGHANISTAN: 500 B.C. TO 1929 64 Introduction 64 Afghanistan’s Early History: Invasions by Neighbouring Empires 65 The Ascendancy of the Durrani Empire and the Birth of the Afghan Nation 74 The Reign of Dost Mohammad 83 iv The First Anglo-Afghan War 89 The Return of Dost Mohammad 92 The Second Anglo-Afghan War 95 Abdur Rahman Khan 98 Habibullah Khan 108 Amanullah Khan 113 CHAPTER THREE AFGHANISTAN: 1929 - THE POST-TALIBAN PERIOD 126 Introduction 126 The Fall of Bacha-I-Saqao and the Rise of Nadir Khan 126 Zahir Shah and the Musahiban Brothers 128 Sarder Daoud Khan (1953-1963) 129 King Zahir Shah (1963-1973) 135 The Daoud Republic (1973-1978) 140 The Saur Revolution (1978-1979) 141 The Soviet Union’s Invasion of Afghanistan and the Soviet-Afghan War 144 The Soviet-Afghan war 151 The Impact of the Soviet-Afghan War 156 The Afghan Civil War 161 The Rise of the Taliban 165 The Taliban’s Military Campaign 173 The Taliban Regime 175 The Bonn Agreement 191 v CHAPTER FOUR EVALUATING IGNATIEFF’S THEORY IN THE CASE OF AFGHANISTAN: ECONOMICS, EDUCATION, CIVIL SOCIETY AND INSTITUTIONAL HISTORY 194 Introduction 194 Economics 199 Education 218 Civil Society 221 Afghanistan’s Institutional History 223 CHAPTER FIVE EVALUATING IGNATIEFF’S THEORY IN THE CASE OF AFGHANISTAN: SECURITY AND GEOPOLITICS 253 Security 253 International Security Forces and the Afghan Insurgency 277 Geopolitics 289 CHAPTER SIX CONCLUSION 301 REFERENCES 311 vi CHAPTER ONE BACKGROUND AND THEORY Introduction This thesis considers Michael Ignatieff’s theory regarding ethnic conflict and applies Afghanistan as a case study. This thesis consists of six chapters. Chapter One begins with a brief background on the centrality of ethnic conflict to international affairs today and offers an overview of the key theoretical definitions central to this topic. It continues with an outline of Ignatieff’s thesis regarding the origins of ethnic conflict as well as his prescriptions for its resolution. In short, Ignatieff credits the emergence of ethnic conflict to the collapse of the domestic government structure and conversely cites the building of liberal democratic political institutions as the remedy for ethnic strife. If the establishment of democratic institutions constitutes the solution for ethnic conflict it is thus necessary to explore democratic theory in order to understand the conditions that presage pluralistic governance. Consequently, this chapter devotes considerable attention to the necessary preconditions for democratic rule and concludes with a discussion regarding the relationship between institutions, political culture and democracy. Based on the theoretical perspectives in Chapter One this thesis applies Afghanistan as a case study. Afghanistan represents an ideal model to assess Ignatieff’s theory of ethnic conflict. Afghanistan has experienced ethnic war, the collapse of its state institutions and is currently undergoing a reconstruction process centred on establishment of liberal democratic model of governance. Consequently, as a means to analyze 1 Ignatieff’s thesis, it is essential to consider the viability of transplanting democratic state institutions to Afghanistan. In order to assess Afghanistan’s proclivity for liberal democracy it is vital to examine the history of Afghanistan. Consequently, Chapters Two and Three are devoted exclusively to the political, economic and social history of Afghanistan. Chapter Four and Five identifies five key variables that directly affect the success of nation building efforts in Afghanistan. These include the nature of the economy, civil society, the country’s institutional history and the security and geopolitical environment. Based on an analysis of these five key preconditions for democratic governance, this chapter assesses the viability or likelihood of sustainable democracy in Afghanistan. The outcome of this analysis is commensurate to a critical assessment of Ignatieff’s thesis regarding ethnic conflict. Indeed, for Ignatieff’s theory to attain credible status, democracy must be a viable proposition for post conflict societies. Chapter Six is the concluding chapter which summarizes and evaluates the findings in this thesis. Background and Definitions Since the end of the Cold War, the world has witnessed a considerable rise in internal violence. Brown characterizes internal conflict “as the most pervasive form of armed conflict in the world” (1996: i). For instance, from 1950 –1959, there were 42 internal conflicts compared with 246 in 1990 – 1999 (Eberwein, 2001: 9). Between 1990 and 1996, out of a total of 98 armed global armed conflicts, only seven were between states, and the rest were internal (Von Hippel, 2000: 3). Brown defines internal conflict as “violent or potentially violent disputes whose origins can be traced primarily to 2 domestic rather than systemic factors, and where armed violence takes place or threatens to take place primarily within the borders of a single state” ( 1996:i). The human costs of these conflicts are profound resulting in up to 7 million deaths and almost 38 million displaced persons (Lake & Rothchild, 1998). A prominent feature endemic to many of these conflicts is a division between the antagonists along ethnic lines. Kaufman defines ethnic war as a war spawned from a contest for political power involving “ethnic markers such as language or religion or the status of ethnic groups themselves” (2001:17). Ethnic conflict constitutes an important subgroup of internal wars for a multitude of reasons that include its ubiquity, the scale and intensity of violence, its impact on regional stability, its propensity to involve external powers and international organizations and its centrality in theoretical and policy debates (Brown, 1996). As Lake and Rothchild conclude, “at the close of the twentieth century, ethnic and other social conflicts are without a doubt the world’s greatest cause of human suffering” (1998: 339). In response to the ascendancy of ethnic conflict, scholars and journalists have developed theoretical explanations devoted to uncovering the source of this violence1. 1This multiplicity of theories can be broken down into three main subgroups: primordialism, instrumentalism and constructivism (Lake & Rothchild, 1998). First, primordialists argue that ethnic difference in and of itself constitutes the necessary and sufficient precondition for conflict. Primordialists believe that through genetic inheritance or the power of cultural socialization involving “centuries of past practice,” individuals and groups acquire an unchangeable ethnic identity and become singularly attached to their “primordial group” (Lake & Rothchild, 1998: 5). Geetz comments