SECURITY IN AND AROUND AFGHANISTAN SINCE THE NATO WITHDRAWAL IN 2014 A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY DURSUN ALPER BİLDİRİCİ IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS SEPTEMBER 2019 Approval of the Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Yaşar KONDAKÇI Director I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. Prof. Dr. Oktay F. TANRISEVER Head of Department This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. Prof. Dr. Oktay F. TANRISEVER Supervisor Examining Committee Members Prof. Dr. Hüseyin BAĞCI (METU, IR) Prof. Dr. Oktay F. TANRISEVER (METU, IR) Assoc. Prof. Dr. Burak TANGÖR (Hacettepe Uni., INT) PLAGIARISM I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last Name : Dursun Alper Bildirici Signature : iii ABSTRACT SECURITY IN AND AROUND AFGHANISTAN AFTER NATO WITHDRAWAL BİLDİRİCİ, D. Alper M.S., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever September 2019, 205 pages This thesis aims to examine the effects of the NATO forces’ withdrawal from Afghanistan on the security situation in and Afghanistan’s immediate surroundings. The argument of this thesis is that; the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan has led to a significant deterioration in the security situation in the country, which has also become a security problem for Afghanistan’s neighbors. Contrary to the views of some academics who argue that Afghanistan is a victim of its neighbors, this thesis argues that the security of Afghanistan, a peripheral country to the security dynamics of the neighboring regions, could be better understood by explaining the security vacuum created by the security prioritization of the neighboring regions in favor of other regional issues. This argument implies that non-regional great power meddling in Afghanistan’s security has long been driven by the need to fill in this security vacuum in Afghanistan. The great power interest and capacity to enhance security in Afghanistan tend to diminish when the great powers develop interest in other regions and their specific security interests in Afghanistan are ensured at a tolerable level. The thesis consists of six chapters. The first chapter is followed by a chapter in which the historical background of Afghanistan is presented. The third part examines the impact of international actors on Afghanistan’s security. The iv fourth part deals with Afghanistan’s security on national scale. The effects of regional countries are examined in fifth section. In the final section, results of the study are presented. Keywords: Afghanistan, Security, Regional Security Complex, NATO, Taliban v ÖZ NATO’NUN 2014’TE ÇEKİLMESİ SONRASINDA AFGANİSTAN VE ÇEVRESİNDE GÜVENLİK BİLDİRİCİ, D. Alper Yüksek Lisans, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever Eylül 2019, 205 sayfa Bu tez, NATO güçlerinin, 2014 sonunda Afganistan’dan çekilmesinin Afganistan ve Afganistan’ın yakın çevresindeki güvenlik durumu üzerindeki etkilerini incelemeyi hedeflemektedir. Bu tezin argümanı NATO güçlerinin Afganistan’dan çekilmesi sonrasında genel güvenlik durumunda kayda değer bir bozulma yaşandığı ve söz konusu durumun Afganistan’ın komşuları için de bir güvenlik sorunu haline geldiğidir. Afganistan’ın, komşularının kurbanı olduğunu iddia eden bazı akademisyenlerin görüşlerinin aksine bu tez, komşu bölgelerin güvenlik dinamikleri açısından çevresel bir ülke olan Afganistan’ın güvenliğinin, bölgesel meselelerin komşu bölgelerin lehine güvenlik öncelleştirmeleriyle yaratılan boşluğunun incelenmesiyle daha iyi anlaşılabileceğini savunmaktadır. Bu argüman, Afganistan’ın güvenliğine yönelik bölgesel olmayan büyük güç müdahalesinin uzun zamandan beri Afganistan’daki bu güvenlik boşluğunu doldurma ihtiyacından kaynaklandığını iddia etmektedir. Afganistan’daki güvenliği artırma konusundaki büyük güç ilgisi ve kapasitesi, büyük güçlerin diğer bölgelere olan ilgilerinin artması ve Afganistan’daki vi belirli güvenlik ihtiyaçlarının tahammül edilebilir seviyede sağlanmasına paralel olarak azalmaktadır. Tez altı bölümden oluşmaktadır. İlk bölümü, Afganistan’ın tarihsel arka planının ele alındığı ikinci bölüm takip etmektedir. Üçüncü bölümde Afganistan’ın güvenliği üzerinde uluslararası aktörlerin etkisi irdelenirken, dördüncü bölümde ise konu ulusal bağlamda incelenmektedir. Bölgesel aktörlerin Afganistan’ın güvenliğine olan etkilerinin incelendiği beşinci bölümü sonuç ve değerlendirmelerin sunulduğu altıncı ve son bölüm takip etmektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Afganistan, Güvenlik, Bölgesel Güvenlik Yapısı, NATO, Taliban vii DEDICATION To My Beloved Family…. viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work could not have been possible without the huge support given by my supervisor Prof. Dr. Oktay Tanrısever. He not only supervised the thesis but also motivated me to bring back a long-time dead project back to life. No word can express my gratitude to Mr. Tanrısever. I would also like to thank my wife, who patiently supported me and took care of our two lovely children, Yiğit Alp and Aslı Zeynep, and shouldered the daily chores of our home alone. There are also many individuals whose names are not mentioned here nevertheless inspired and supported me and kept me going. Finally, I would like to thank my late grandmother, may she rest in peace, to whom I owe everything I have. ix TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM ............................................................................................................ iii ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ iv ÖZ ................................................................................................................................ vi DEDICATION .......................................................................................................... viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................ ix TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................. x LIST OF MAPS AND FIGURES ............................................................................. xiii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Scope and Objective .......................................................................................... 3 1.2. Literature Review .............................................................................................. 4 1.3. Argument ......................................................................................................... 10 1.4. Theoretical Framework and Methodology ...................................................... 11 1.5. Organization of the Thesis ............................................................................... 17 2. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND ........................................................................... 19 2.1. Afghanistan from Early Ages to the End of 19th Century ............................... 22 2.2. 20th Century and the Cold War Period ............................................................ 36 2.3. The Soviet Invasion ......................................................................................... 39 2.4. Post-Soviet Era and the Taliban Rule .............................................................. 42 x 3. INTERNATIONAL ASPECTS OF AFGHAN SECURITY ................................. 48 3.1. Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) ............................................................... 48 3.2. Bonn Agreement and Political Process ........................................................... 50 3.3. NATO and International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) ........................... 51 3.4. NATO Drawdown ........................................................................................... 60 3.5. Resolute Support Mission (RSM) ................................................................... 63 3.5.1. Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) ................................................... 71 3.5.2. Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) ........................................................ 72 3.6. Reconstruction and State Building Efforts ...................................................... 72 4. NATIONAL ASPECTS OF AFGHAN SECURITY ............................................. 79 4.1. Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) ...................................................... 79 4.1.1. The Afghan National Army (ANA) .......................................................... 81 4.1.2. Afghan National Air Force (ANAF) ......................................................... 82 4.1.3. Afghan National Police (ANP) ................................................................. 83 4.2. Afghan Governance ......................................................................................... 89 4.2.1 Negotiations with the Taliban .................................................................