5.1 Comparison of Spells of Growth And

“This book...is an important resource for everyone who is working to alleviate poverty.” — Former President Bill Clinton 48104 Public Disclosure Authorized Success from Public Disclosure Authorized the Bottom Up Public Disclosure Authorized Deepa Narayan Lant Pritchett and Soumya Kapoor Public Disclosure Authorized MOVING OUT OF POVERTY, VOLUME 2 Success from the Bottom Up About the Series The Moving Out of Poverty series presents the results of new comparative research across more than 500 communities in 15 countries on how and why poor people move out of poverty. The findings lay the foundations for new policies that will promote inclusive growth and just societies, and move millions out of poverty. The series was launched in 2007 under the editorial direction of Deepa Narayan, former senior adviser in the World Bank. She earlier directed the pathbreaking Voices of the Poor project. Titles in the Moving Out of Poverty series: Volume 1 Cross-Disciplinary Perspectives on Mobility Volume 2 Success from the Bottom Up Volume 3 The Promise of Empowerment and Democracy in India (forthcoming) Volume 4 Rising from the Ashes of Conflict (forthcoming) Moving Out of Poverty VOLUME 2 Success from the Bottom Up Deepa Narayan, Lant Pritchett, and Soumya Kapoor A COPUBLICATION OF PALGRAVE MACMILLAN AND THE WORLD BANK ©2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected] All rights reserved 1 2 3 4 12 11 10 09 A copublication of The World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan. PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin's Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judge- ment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN: 978-0-8213-7215-9 (softcover) eISBN: 978-0-8213-7216-6 (softcover) ISBN: 978-0-8213-7836-6 (hardcover) DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7215-9 ISSN: None Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied for. Cover design: Drew Fasick Cover photograph: Brice Richard Printed in the United States Dedication To the thousands of women, men, and youths who took the time to share with us their experiences, their hopes, and their dreams and To Charles Tilly (1929–2008)—adviser, guide, and friend Contents Foreword xiii Study Team and Acknowledgments xv About the Authors xix Abbreviations xxi 1 The Moving Out of Poverty Study: An Overview 2 2 Stories of the Poor, Stories by the Poor 50 3 Poverty Is a Condition, Not a Characteristic 86 4 I Believe I Can 126 5 The Dream of Equal Opportunity 180 6 All Politics Is Local: How Better Governance Helps the Poor 222 7 The Unfulfilled Potential of Collective Action 280 8 Concluding Reflections 332 Appendix 1 Researchers and Institutions Involved in Country Studies 343 Appendix 2 Technical Note on Household Regressions 349 Appendix 3 Data Collection Methods 369 Appendix 4 List of Variables for Household Regressions 375 Appendix 5 Weights for the PCA-Constructed Indexes, by Study Region 379 Appendix 6 Regression Results Tables for MOP and MPI 387 References 399 Index 411 Tables 1.1 Sample ladders of life from two villages in Andhra Pradesh and Uganda 14 vii viii Contents 2.1 All villages in Afghanistan report hard work as a factor in moving out of poverty 60 2.2 Movers in India take more initiative, but chronic poor take about as much initiative as never poor 66 3.1 Over half of households moved up or down at least one step on the ladder of life over 10 years 93 3.2 Movements up and out of poverty are only one part of overall poverty dynamics 97 3.3 Various measures of well-being dynamics are associated with local (village-level) factors in four states of India 117 A3.4 On average, the poor and nonpoor in the same villages moved up together across study regions 122 4.1 Poor people distinguish four different types of power 132 4.2 Path deviation in youth: Youths whose parents are in agriculture or the informal sector want to do something else (start a business, get a job) 156 6.1 People in study communities in Malawi associate democracy first and foremost with freedom 230 6.2 Economic opportunities can create positive spillovers 270 7.1 Migration and multiple hands at work trigger upward movement in Mexico 288 7.2 Collective entities replicate some but not all characteristics of successful families 297 A.1 Countries in the MOP study stratified by income, growth, and governance 351 A.2 Choosing locations within study regions 352 A.3 Desired distribution of households across mobility groups 356 Figures 1.1 More than half of all households were classified as poor in 2005 16 1.2 Movers most frequently cite initiatives as reasons for their move out of poverty 20 1.3 Gambling, drugs, and alcohol are rarely cited as reasons for falling 21 1.4 The never poor and movers score themselves higher in power and rights 27 1.5 Communities where governments became more responsive were likely to report increased presence of services over last 10 years 35 1.6 Families are rated the most important institution for asset accumulation by all mobility groups in Indian study regions 40 1.7 Collective action helps people cope in Bufkaro, Uganda 44 1.8 Initiative and opportunity interact to produce upward movement 46 Contents ix 2.1 Majority of all households have high aspirations for their children 55 2.2 Movers and never poor have higher hopes, but even chronic poor and fallers have high aspirations for their children 56 2.3 Movers and never poor support their agricultural initiatives through purchase of assets, while chronic poor rely on hard work 59 2.4 Fallers and chronic poor are more likely to be unhappy 63 2.5 Respondents in India rate initiative as most important trigger for accumulating assets 66 2.6 Initiative features prominently, luck hardly at all as reasons for moving up 67 2.7 Ladder from Saré Ogicol, Senegal: Destiny matters for moving up at the top 70 3.1 Community mobility matrix from Fateh Garh, Uttar Pradesh, shows types and magnitude of household mobility 90 3.2 Community mobility matrix from Fateh Garh, Uttar Pradesh, shows household movement out of poverty, within poverty, into poverty, and among the nonpoor 91 3.3 Narrow escalator model illustrates moving out of poverty with all households retaining their relative rankings 94 3.4 Broad staircase model illustrates moving out of poverty with households changing both their absolute and relative rankings 96 3.5 $1-a-day international standard appears to underestimate poverty compared to focus group estimates 104 3.6 Rising, falling, and net prosperity indexes show large variations both across study regions and across communities within regions 108 3.7 Movement out of poverty and mobility of the poor indexes show large variations both across study regions and across communities within regions 110 3.8 On average, the poor and nonpoor moved up together across study regions 112 3.9 Association is much weaker between net upward movements of the poor and nonpoor than between their gross upward movements 114 4.1 Movers place themselves modestly higher on power and rights 10 years ago compared to the chronic poor 146 4.2 Fallers place themselves modestly lower on power and rights 10 years ago compared to the never poor 147 4.3 Movers report control over all or most decisions, while chronic poor and fallers report less control 148 4.4 Personal agency has an association with moving out of poverty 151 4.5 Movers had higher hopes for their own future than did the chronic poor 154 4.6 Individual aspirations are a robust correlate of moving out of poverty 155 x Contents 4.7 Households with more control over decisions report

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