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South Korean Presidential Politics Turns Liberal: Transformative Change or Business as Usual? Dostal, Jörg Michael

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Empfohlene Zitierung / Suggested Citation: Dostal, J. M. (2017). South Korean Presidential Politics Turns Liberal: Transformative Change or Business as Usual? The Political Quarterly, 88(3), 480-491. https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-55605-8

Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Dieser Text wird unter einer Free Digital Peer Publishing Licence This document is made available under a Free Digital Peer zur Verfügung gestellt. Nähere Auskünfte zu den DiPP-Lizenzen Publishing Licence. For more Information see: finden Sie hier: http://www.dipp.nrw.de/lizenzen/dppl/service/dppl/ http://www.dipp.nrw.de/lizenzen/dppl/service/dppl/ The Political Quarterly, Vol. 88, No. 3, July–September 2017

South Korean Presidential Politics Turns Liberal: Transformative Change or Business as Usual?

€ JORG MICHAEL DOSTAL

Abstract The impeachment of President Park Gyeun-hye on 10 March 2017 saw South Korean politics enter a period of crisis. Her removal from office, the result of an unprecedented mass move- ment of citizen protests, provided a springboard for the subsequent success of the liberal candidate, Moon Jae-in, in the presidential election of 9 May 2017. This article suggests that political change in South is only possible if actors move beyond the politics of person- ality, and tackle the structural reasons for the policy failures of recent times. Further, if democracy, a humane economic system and responsive political institutions are going to be developed and nourished, the country’s ‘imperial presidency’ needs to be reformed. In par- ticular, the current ‘winner-takes-all’ politics, with the presidency as the main locus of power, needs to be reformed in ways that promote a more balanced political system, increasing the influence of other actors and institutions. Keywords: constitutional reform, imperial presidency, Moon Jae-in, Park Gyeun-hye, presidentialism,

takes-all’ political system, concentrating power Introduction in the hands of an ‘imperial presidency’ of 1 THE UNPRECEDENTED IMPEACHMENT of Park South Korea? What kind of development is Gyeun-hye by the South Korean constitu- the country going to face in a world in which tional court on 10 March 2017, and her sub- geopolitical tensions between China and the sequent arrest on abuse of power and USA might directly affect its future prospects corruption allegations, constitutes the most —given that South Korea now has more trade dramatic event in South Korea’s history since with China than the USA, but remains under a the transition to democracy in the late 1980s. US security umbrella that is increasingly at South Korea’s political system concentrates odds with China’s regional aspirations? power at the very top; removing a President The article considers five key themes: the from office leaves an entire flotilla of politi- collapse of the Park Gyeun-hye presidency; cal institutions effectively rudderless. The these developments in the context of South presidential elections of 9 May 2017 saw the Korean history and the particularity of the victory of the main liberal candidate, Moon political system; the impact upon the econ- Jae-in of the Democratic Party of Korea, with omy; the relationship between these events 41.1 per cent of the votes cast, in a field of and the major cleavages in contemporary five serious contenders. society; and, finally, a brief description of the This article puts these tumultuous events presidential election campaign of April and into the context of the country’s political cul- May 2017, before concluding with likely ture and asks a number of fundamental ques- future scenarios for South Korea. tions. Does the current political crisis suggest a transformation of the country’sconstitution, The impeachment of President political system and social fabric? Or will it be remembered as just another clash between Park Gyeun-hye opposing conservative and liberal political At first glance, the downfall of former tendencies? In particular, will recent events President Park might be compared with the precipitate the decline of the current ‘winner- gradual collapse of a building. From the

© The Author 2017. The Political Quarterly © The Political Quarterly Publishing Co. Ltd. 2017 480 Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2DQ, UK and 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA appearance of hairline cracks and the dis- conservatives, the project was designed to placement of a few bricks to the caving in of do justice to the historical achievements of the roof, it is very difficult to calculate when her father, but it was strongly opposed by the rot actually set in. The Park presidency liberals and the overwhelming majority of began with a narrow election win in 2012 teachers. It took two more years for the gen- against the liberal candidate Moon Jae-in. eral public to discover that people working She derived her support largely from an for the Park presidency had actually black- older generation of , while younger listed artists, writers, publishers and other voters predominantly backed her liberal cultural figures that were regarded as unreli- opponent. As a presidential candidate in able by conservatives who, instead, sup- 2012, Park had appeared to move away from ported those considered to be on the side of fiscal conservatism to the centre ground, the President.4 suggesting an expansion of the welfare state Conflicts over cultural representation and, in particular, the introduction of a uni- aside, a decisive moment for the Park presi- versal basic pension for senior citizens. How- dency was the tragic sinking of the ship ever, this targeted election promise to Sewol on 16 April 2014. The ship capsized mobilise older voters—old-age poverty is off the west coast of Korea drowning 304 of one of the country’s major social problems— the 476 passengers; among them 246 high was quickly broken after her election on the school students from Danwon High School grounds of being too expensive. in Ansan city. The major reason for the high In a very short time, the focus and politi- number of casualties was the failure of the cal purpose of her presidency became authorities to organise a prompt rescue oper- unclear. There were buzzwords: narratives ation, and advice given by crew members about a ‘creative Korea’, seeking to reposi- for students to stay in their cabins until fur- tion the country with regard to ‘cultural ther notice. The crew subsequently left the industries’, but this aspiration was never ship, along with the captain, while most of really followed through. Instead, the coun- the teenagers who had followed the advice try’s cultural life became the object of a con- of their elders perished in the accident. servative political onslaught. The presidency Under the South Korean presidential sys- sought to narrow the scope of what was con- tem, major emergency responses require the sidered to be of cultural value and worthy of coordinated effort of the presidential office, state support to those loyal to Park’s admin- chaired by the President. However, Park’s istration. In one telling incident, a painting appearance on the day of the accident was by artist Hong Sung-dam that presented the much delayed. The various public bodies President as the incarnation of her father tasked with coordinating naval rescue (the former long-term South Korean Presi- operations were disorganised due to admin- dent Park Chung-hee who had ruled the istrative reforms that had left strategic country as an authoritarian leader between responsibility unclear. Hence, much time 1961 and 1979) was rejected for the Gwangju was wasted, and no decisive rescue opera- Biennale exhibition. This was a remarkable tion occurred. It also transpired that the cap- affair, given that the city of Gwangju had a tain and the crew had been casual workers, long history of resistance to the military employed on short-term contracts, and that regime before democratisation in the 1980s, the vessel had been overloaded with cargo, and has always been a stronghold of liberal- while official documents had been falsified ism.2 The rejected artist received a mention to maximise profits. Whilst some details of of his case on the front page of the New York the catastrophe continue to be contested, it is Times as a consolation prize, but many certainly appropriate to call the event a man- others were less lucky and simply had their made disaster.5 work excluded by state-controlled funding After the Sewol incident, relatives and bodies.3 friends of the victims and their supporters Similarly, Park advanced the project of campaigned to demand a full government issuing new history text books for inquiry. The event caused much national high schools. Written by state-appointed introspection; many recognised from their authors, and in a spirit favoured by some own experience that cutting corners, and

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© The Author 2017. The Political Quarterly © The Political Quarterly Publishing Co. Ltd. 2017 The Political Quarterly, Vol. 88, No. 3 conducting business speedily rather than The close relationship between Park and safely, was an entrenched part of Korean Choi was known to well-informed observers; everyday life. This was arguably a legacy yet detail beyond the general existence of from the country’s single-minded focus on such networks was scarce.6 Thus, the news economic development. Under the authori- that President Park relied on Choi for the tarian regime of the 1960s and 1970s, a informal management of state business and hyper-liberal version of had given had shared confidential state documents rise to a culture with little concern for safety with her despite the fact that Choi had no regulations or workers’ protection. As far as security clearance and no official role in the President Park herself was concerned, she government, caused an outcry from the pub- failed to clarify her whereabouts on the day of lic. As one observer put it, the news that the sinking, and the incident created a perma- Choi Soon-sil [acted] nent rift between her and large sections of the public. as the eminence grise ... having access to and meddling with confidential government doc- uments such as Presidential Records before ‘ – ’ they were publicised, intervening in the The Park Choi Gate appointment of core governmental posts, In the autumn of 2016, the visible cracks in influencing policy decisions, and pursuing Park’s power base expanded when the rela- private interests including the establishment tionship between Park and her long-term of two foundations with about 80 billion friend and confidante, Choi Soon-sil, came won ($68 million) extorted from chaebol, large domestic conglomerates ... [p]oint to Park under public scrutiny after it was revealed ’ herself being responsible for the scandalous that Choi s daughter had graduated from the incidents and Choi reigning as a shadow prestigious Ewha Womans University with- President. out fulfilling the academic requirements. It was later revealed that her entire educational The same author suggested that: career had progressed on the basis of strong- arming teaching personnel to pass her as a [i]t is simultaneously bewildering and trou- ‘sport student’. bling to accept such an irrational reality Choi’s father had, at different times, acted where events that were once confounding as a Buddhist monk, shamanistic medium are miraculously solved once we put the and evangelical preacher in various cults. newly discovered puzzle-piece of Choi Soon- More to the point, he had been tasked by sil into place ... As such, any rational Park’s father to assist in the education of the approach to understanding Park and her young Park Geun-hye in the 1970s. The cults, administration could have only been frus- trated, naturally dispiriting citizens and chaired by Choi’s father, had primarily ‘ ’ experts in their attempts to understand served to provide spiritual support for the the Park administration’s major policy military regime but had, in parallel, collected decisions.7 money from businesses. Such donations were ‘offered’ by the chaebols (the Korean term for The most significant development, beside the ‘rich clan’), the family-led industrial con- permanent stream of revelations about how glomerates in South Korea, which had been Choi had influenced Park in terms of editing created under the regime of Park’s father to her speeches, collecting ‘donations’ for two facilitate industrialisation since the 1960s. sports foundations from chaebols and giving Such donations were in effect kickbacks, rein- orders on behalf of the President to high- forcing the close relationship between ranking government officials, was the emer- the military regime and the chaebols in state- gence of a weekly street protest demanding led economic development projects. In short, the immediate resignation of Park from the long-standing collaborative relationship office. The street rallies took place on week- between the two families served to accumu- ends between November 2016 and March late political and economic resources that 2017, close to the presidential palace, and were subsequently transferred to the next were mirrored by similar large rallies in generation made up of the two daughters. provincial cities all over the country. They

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The Political Quarterly, Vol. 88, No. 3 © The Author 2017. The Political Quarterly © The Political Quarterly Publishing Co. Ltd. 2017 were attended by hundreds of thousands of regime and moderate opposition leaders. citizens making a single political demand: The compromise left substantial elements of Park’s immediate resignation from office. an authoritarian political system, in particu- These ‘candlelight rallies’ were always peace- lar the dominance of the presidency, ful and virtually filled the entire city centre untouched. The main substantive change with protestors. Conservative sympathisers was for the President to be directly elected directly associated with Park engaged in under a single-round, first past the post counter rallies in front of the major railway electoral system, for a non-renewable term station of . However, these rallies were of five years. During the first democratic small and almost exclusively comprised presidential election in 1987, liberal votes older people with an evangelical back- were split between two competing candi- ground. The difference in crowd sizes dates, which allowed the conservative can- echoed her approval ratings, which fell to a didate to win with only thirty-six per cent record low of below five per cent. of the votes cast. This defeat meant that the The decision to impeach Park was taken expected democratisation of institutions by the Korean parliament on 8 December remained limited in scope. South Korea’s 2016, with 234 out of 300 parliamentarians political economy, based upon low taxes, supporting it in a secret ballot. This meant low regulation, and limited levels of redis- that around half of the conservative faction tributive and welfare policies, remained in and the entire opposition bloc had voted in place.8 favour of her impeachment. The decision The current system is referred to as an was unanimously upheld by the constitu- ‘imperial presidency’,whichisduetothe tional court on 10 March 2017 and Park lack of an effective division of powers thereby lost her immunity from prosecution. between the President and the other politi- She was subsequently arrested and is cur- cal actors and institutions. At present, the rently jailed. presidency controls domestic and foreign policy-making in an ‘imperial’ manner. In Main features of South Korean particular, the constitution of the sixth politics Republic gives the President the power to appoint the prime minister, the cabinet To place the impeachment of Park in its members, the chief justice of the constitu- broader analytical context, what follows is a tional court and the head of the board of brief description of the basic features of South audit. Despite the fact that these appoint- Korean politics. The division of Korea in 1945 ments are subject to parliamentary hear- gave birth to the first Republic under the ings, and that they require the consent of authoritarian leadership of Rhee Syung-man a majority in parliament (the National —a regime which lasted from 1948 until 1960. Assembly), the powers of the parliamen- Conservatives highlight the year 1948 as the tary branch are fairly weak. The President ‘foundation of independent Korea’. In con- can veto legislative bills originating in par- trast, liberals emphasise the Korean provi- liament, and can directly propose legisla- sional government of 1919, exiled during tion to parliament. The presidential veto Japanese colonial rule in Korea (1910–45), as can only be overcome by a two-thirds the foundation of modern Korean politics. majority in parliament, which is unlikely The current democratic state (since 1987) is given the country’s electoral and party referred to as the sixth Republic. With the system, which reflects a rough balance in exception of the short-lived second Republic representation between conservatives and between 1960 and 1961, which had a parlia- liberals.9 Moreover, the main focus of par- mentary system until the military coup of Park liamentary work is the approval of the Chung-hee, all previous ‘republics’ have had annual budget, drafted by an executive led authoritarian presidential systems. The third, by the President. There is perhaps no fourth and fifthRepublicsweremoreorless other democratic country in the world in directly controlled by the military. which the constitutional position of the The transition to democracy in 1987 was President is as overwhelmingly strong as based upon a settlement between the old South Korea’s.

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© The Author 2017. The Political Quarterly © The Political Quarterly Publishing Co. Ltd. 2017 The Political Quarterly, Vol. 88, No. 3 In political science scholarship, the South interests of the chaebols at the expense of Korean case has received limited attention. small and medium sized enterprises, whilst, To the extent that one might identify a single to the extent that they exist at all, trade ‘classic’ English-language account of Korean unions mostly cover large enterprises and politics, it is perhaps Gregory Henderson’s the public sector. In some respects, unions at Korea: The Politics of the Vortex. Henderson’s the individual enterprise level resemble basic argument is that Korea’s history of iso- guilds, and they have on occasion demanded lation from the outside world, and its ethnic that current workers be allowed to bequeath homogeneity under a highly centralised their jobs to their children. monarchical regime based in Seoul, has pro- With regard to civil society, the most suc- duced a tendency to personalistic rule and cessful bodies have largely been religious an underdevelopment of intermediate insti- groups—in particular, evangelical churches, tutions between the state and the people. in addition to the more long-standing Bud- The term ‘vortex’ here stands for a whirlpool dhist orders and the Catholic Church. Reli- pulling people toward the country’s national gious bodies might be expected to act as capital, the single political power centre, and intermediaries between the state and civil towards the direct contestation for political society; yet South Korea does not grant a power, with little concern for formal rules. privileged role to any particular religion, and According to Henderson around half of the population do not sub- scribe to any religion. One might suggest [i]ndividuals rely on patrons, chance, per- that the public sphere of a highly connected sonal appearance, family, and, in recent time society is located online. However, beyond education to bring them success, but not on the posting of online messages, the universal organization. This tendency has long inhib- distribution of smart phones does not make ited the formation of true political parties, up for the lack of citizen engagement in and such groupings as have existed have organised political activity. been temporary associations of individuals, whose desire for personal power has far out- 10 weighed any wish for group continuity. South Korea’s economy today However, this perspective does not do full South Korea’s emergence as a major economic justice to the complex reality—the decisive power relates, first, to geopolitics and, second, feature is personalistic rule in the context of to the existence of authoritarian developmen- strong hierarchical bodies that, in turn, are talism under the military regime of Park based on collectivism. Nonetheless, many Chung-hee (1961–79), which drove the coun- observers would still agree that the state- try towards export-led development. During ment presents a leitmotif for the country’s that period, the USA had a major geopolitical current-day political culture. interest in stabilising the South Korean state. The general underdevelopment of formal In this context, Japan served as a role model institutions still holds true, but it has variant for how to develop industrial conglomerates complementary dimensions. Apart from the for export-oriented growth policies. As in basic absence of institutional continuity, Japan, the USA opened its domestic market symbolised for instance by frequent splits for products from South Korea without and renaming of political parties (the main- demanding reciprocity in trade and invest- stream conservatives have changed their ment. Both the Japanese and the South Korean party name five times since 1987, ignoring states nurtured the corporations over long the various splinter groups that have joined periods of time before they became competi- and left), membership of intermediate politi- tive in world markets. The consequence in cal organisations is low. Low membership both cases was that business groups, namely figures in political parties, trade unions and the keiretsus in Japan, defined as corporate groups result in less institutional groups of banks, insurance companies and complexity and a narrow scope of political manufacturing, and the South Korean chae- activity for such bodies. For example, bols, shared many structural features and employer associations mostly focus upon the went on to enjoy near-monopoly power in

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The Political Quarterly, Vol. 88, No. 3 © The Author 2017. The Political Quarterly © The Political Quarterly Publishing Co. Ltd. 2017 their respective home markets. Moreover, Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 when the technology transfer from the US, Japan and profitability of the chaebols could no longer elsewhere allowed South Korea to catch up be patched up by state lending. The crisis and provided the necessary foundations for resulted in the large-scale downsizing of economic growth. chaebol employment and the subsequent The Park regime initially focussed on expansion of the informal employment sec- developing light industries followed by the tor. In the 2000s, South Korea made a rapid Heavy and Chemical Industries (HCI) pro- comeback on the growth wave of new com- gramme in the early 1970s. This second stage munication technologies (smart phones and policy, the most important period in the other ‘smart’ IT products). Although such country’s economic history, saw direct state technology had largely been developed out- control of the financial sector, and targeted side the country, the system of close collabo- credit provision for chaebols in exchange for ration between state and chaebols allowed for their ability to meet export targets set by ‘quick followership’, and thus demonstrated state officials. These policies have usually the continued relevance of some aspects of been described as the South Korean version the developmental state with the ‘bench- of a developmental state; a concept initially marking’ of foreign products for export- developed to analyse the political economy oriented production. of Japan. Similar to Japan, South Korea’s In the twenty-first century, the chaebols have chaebols became leading producers in sectors become significant global players, increasing such as car manufacturing, ship building, investment worldwide, and outsourcing steel, chemicals and electronics. labour-intensive manufacturing to China and While Japanese capitalism had developed to transition countries in south Asia, such as organically since the late nineteenth century, Vietnam and Indonesia. To some extent, the in South Korea the state replaced the agency solid growth rates of South Korea in the 2000s of an initially underdeveloped capitalist class. were related to the initial industrial invest- South Korea thus represented a limited ver- ments undertaken in China. The technology sion of developmentalism: until the late 1980s component of Chinese products took off and the country was not a , provided competition for some South Korean while Japan had become one (albeit by products. The relationship between the chae- default) after the end of World War II. Fur- bols and the South Korean state has become thermore, the lifelong employment system more complicated, and there is an ongoing that had been a main feature of the Japanese debate about the future role of the chaebol–state keiretsu system and the emphasis on com- nexus and the relevancy of the developmental pany-based welfare policies was much less state under current conditions. common in South Korea. Overall, South The major challenge for South Korean capi- Korea remained considerably more market- talism remains one of how to make the econ- liberal, at least with regard to welfare and reg- omy more innovative in order to capture ulatory efforts, and when compared to the future growth sectors. In this context, the earlier Japanese model. Thus, extreme eco- country has taken some steps in the right nomic was complemented by a direction; its spending on research and devel- strong, but highly selective state that focussed opment is now at levels twice as high as Euro- mainly on providing guidance to the chaebols pean Union countries.12 Yet, it remains to be and on maintaining national security in the seen if spending alone will help to deliver face of its hostile neighbour, . innovation in the context of highly hierarchical Overall, South Korea’s developmental institutions that might not be able to take full state model provided for a long period of advantage of such efforts. rapid economic growth. Real GDP grew by 9.5 per cent between 1961 and 1970, 9.3 percent between 1981 and 1990, seven per Main cleavages of contemporary cent between 1991 and 2000, 4.4 per cent South Korea between 2001 and 2010, and around three per cent from 2011 to 2016.11 The one major If South Korea is to succeed in the future, economic downturn occurred during the policy-makers must provide innovative

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© The Author 2017. The Political Quarterly © The Political Quarterly Publishing Co. Ltd. 2017 The Political Quarterly, Vol. 88, No. 3 policy responses that appeal to the main short supply: public sector employment socio-political actors in contemporary soci- (general government and public corporations ety. The major conflict lines that intersect in included) represents only 7.6 per cent of total complex and nuanced ways are: (i) social employment, against 21.3 per cent across the class; (ii) regionalism; (iii) ideology; (iv) gen- OECD countries, according to the most erational and gender conflicts; and (v), the recent figures. Moreover, the number of elite competing norms which derive from Confu- civil servants working in the central public cianism, capitalism, constitutionalism and administration and enjoying near universal democratic values, the coexistence of which employment tenure is only 156,000.13 inevitably produces complex political ten- In the private sector, the numerical signifi- sions. cance of chaebol employment is also limited. The first major cleavage in South Korea Only around ten per cent of Koreans work derives from social class conflict. Most South directly for such conglomerates, and the rela- Koreans tend to imagine their society as tive quality of their employment experience being predominantly middle class. A high is mixed, with the largest corporations such value is placed on competitive individualism as Samsung and Hyundai considered more and an achievement-orientated mind-set. In desirable than their lesser-known competi- this context, social class and social position tors. While these conglomerates usually offer are expected to be based on ‘merit’—mea- a career structure, their employment system sured by educational attainment and by the is highly competitive with an ‘up-or-out’ ability to pass highly competitive entrance work regime, that is, mid-level employees exams that regulate access to desirable are expected to either gain promotion or face employment in the public and private sec- the prospect of ‘voluntary’ retirement. As a tors. Such exams require lengthy and often result, chaebol careers are highly demanding several years’ individual study time in order and often cut short, with employees in their for applicants to have any realistic chance of forties and fifties commonly ‘retiring’ from passing them. The most desirable fields of their positions, often without any clear second employment, filled mostly by these annual career option. competitive exams, are: (i) elite public ser- The remainder of the economy consists of vant jobs in the central government bureau- non-regular and informal employment, such cracy that usually offer lifelong tenure; (ii) as self-employment, temporary employment, chaebol employment that offers a higher and work in small and medium enterprises degree of employment security than other that focus on services and niche production jobs, higher wages and a career structure; not (yet) controlled by the chaebols. Most of and (iii) other professional and public sector these workplaces offer low wages, long jobs with a certain degree of employment hours and no career structure. In addition, security. All other kinds of employment are all past legislative efforts to provide a bridge considered less desirable; there is no tradi- between temporary employment and perma- tion of valuing vocational skills or small and nent employment—the former is very com- medium enterprises. mon in all employment sectors, including However, there is a tangible lack of fit the public sector and the chaebols—have between the self-image of a middle-class failed to be effective: employers continue to society and concrete social realities. While focus on temporary job expansion to avoid there exists some foundation for social facing long-term obligations toward their change and upward social mobility—for employees. In sum, there exists a large gap example the expansion of tertiary education between labour market insiders and out- in which around seventy per cent of young siders: only the former can be said to belong people between twenty-five and thirty-four to the middle-class minority. have graduated with a degree—educational The second conflict line in South Korea expansion has not been matched by available concerns regionalism. At first glance, South positions in the labour market. The South Korea is an unlikely case of political region- Korean labour market suffers from extreme alism. The entire country is highly urbanized dualism between formal and informal and nearly half of the population lives in the employment. All desirable positions are in capital Seoul and its satellite towns. In

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The Political Quarterly, Vol. 88, No. 3 © The Author 2017. The Political Quarterly © The Political Quarterly Publishing Co. Ltd. 2017 addition, the capital city historically grew development. For conservatives, a strong because of migration from all other parts of state combined with a laissez-faire attitude the country. Despite this, South Korean poli- to welfare and social policies is still a per- tics is strongly influenced by regional voting fectly acceptable policy package. cleavages. Support for liberal candidates is In contrast, South Korean liberals have aligned with the south west, whilst the south historically preferred a more consensual eastern parts of the country are a stronghold approach to economic policy, and in the late of the conservatives (this is referred to as the 1980s and 1990s, in favour of efforts ‘Honam versus Yeongnam’ gap in electoral to develop institutionalised collaboration support). In terms of regional voting pat- between the state, capital and labour by way terns, support for liberals or conservatives of neo-corporatist bodies. They also favoured can be as high as ninety per cent in each of the development of a more comprehensive these two particular regions, while voting welfare state and, more recently, have patterns in other parts of the country are stressed the need to improve the position of more genuinely competitive.14 women in the workplace. In terms of The third main division in South Korean national security, the liberals have focussed politics is the ideological conflict between on efforts to strengthen intra-Korean cooper- conservatism and liberalism. This conflict ation, especially during the ‘sunshine policy’ intersects with the social and economic years of two liberal presidencies between cleavages already discussed. Political parties 1998 and 2008, where efforts to expand eco- in South Korea are underdeveloped in the nomic cooperation between the North and sense that there exists no mass membership the South occurred. In addition, most liberals or ideological coherence of the kind associ- have retained some critical distance from ated with traditional left versus right party US policy-making in the region, stressing identities. Instead, conservatist and liberal instead the significance of multilateral efforts parties consist of factions (some of them with to reach out to China and Russia. a regionalist component, others based on The fourth cleavage of generational and personal loyalties), splits and fusions are fre- gender differences was illustrated in the quent, as is the renaming of political parties 2017 presidential election—and other recent in addition to occasional travel between the elections—which saw the development of an conservative and liberal factions. age gap between younger voters under the From a conservative point of view, age of forty preferring liberals, and a more national security, the close collaboration conservative older generation. One of the with the USA and economic growth trump reasons for this generational difference in all other political considerations. The con- political attitudes is increased education. servatives historically constructed the South Higher educational attainment strongly cor- Korean state as designed primarily to serve relates with a stronger focus on quality of the chaebols. The state was ‘strong’ in terms life issues, while the single-minded pursuit of intervening in the economy, repressing of economic growth is still favoured by some the labour movement, and blurring the line of the older generation. In addition, the between domestic issues and national secu- absence of a developed welfare state over- rity by declaring political resistance of any burdens the younger generation, who are kind to be in the service of North Korea. pressured to take care of and support elderly At the same time, the conservative state parents with limited access to old-age pen- was ‘weak’ in its attachment to economic sions. hyper-liberalism—by avoiding efforts to At the same time, young families also reach out to organised labour, or to pro- have to bear childcare and private education vide a developed welfare state. The legacy costs in order to support their offspring in of this particular brand of authoritarian the highly competitive environment of the conservatism has been a level of social ‘educational ’: a situation which spending that is at the bottom end of the has produced the lowest fertility rates in OECD world, and far below of what one OECD countries. These problems have a would expect of a country with South significant gender dimension. In particular, Korea’s advanced level of economic having children might still result in the

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© The Author 2017. The Political Quarterly © The Political Quarterly Publishing Co. Ltd. 2017 The Political Quarterly, Vol. 88, No. 3 expectation on the part of employers for and leadership must frequently change women to ‘voluntarily’ resign from their hands in order to check the extreme power employment, potentially terminating their concentration at the very top. careers. Moreover, men and women suffer Political and economic projects can thus be from an office culture that encourages long advanced quickly; there is rarely a need to hours and presenteeism rather than work– consult with organised interests, who are life balance. This, in turn, does not allow any either absent or powerless. At the same time, free time for family life during weekdays. high-speed decision-making also reflects the The fifth cleavage relates to clashes over non-existence of any long-term strategy and norms and values in contemporary society. of organisational coherence—which, in turn, In particular, there are major contradictions clashes with normative considerations pre- between traditional Confucian and more sent in the Confucian ethical system. In sum- recent capitalistic and constitutional val- mary, South Korean institutions do not ues. The Confucian value system stresses follow Max Weber’s ideal of rational bureau- the need for individuals to practise self- cracy, but subscribe to a fluctuating set of cultivation and high ethical standards. From conflicting norms and values. To a large a Confucian point of view, the selection of extent, this explains why transformative ethically sound individuals will result in change has proved to be so elusive. good governance. Selecting the right individ- uals for the right role will improve society and make a rigid hierarchical order just, on The presidential election of 2017 the grounds that competent leadership This year’s presidential election was marked derives its authority from its inherent qual- by the emergence of a clear frontrunner in ity. This ethic naturally clashes with the val- the liberal candidate Moon Jae-in of the ues of capitalism that are mostly limited to Democratic Party of Korea, and the corre- the profit motive and the cash nexus. In a sponding electoral decline of the conserva- hyper-liberal capitalist system, such as the tives. Moon enjoyed a comfortable election one prevalent in South Korea, economic suc- victory with 41.1 per cent of the votes cast. cess must be achieved at almost any cost, The mainstream conservative candidate leaving little space for an ethic of social Hong Joon-pyo of the recently founded Lib- responsibility. In more regulated versions of erty Korea Party (the renamed supporters of capitalism, such a lack of ethical considera- former President Park’s party) received tions might be constrained by constitutional twenty-four per cent, and the centrist Ahn provisions, where individuals have recourse Cheol-soo of the People’s Party—which had for addressing conflicts in the workplace or until recently been a faction within the to arbitrate over conflicts between compa- Democratic Party—achieved 21.4 per cent. nies, the state and civil society. There were also two minor candidates of In South Korea, these conflicting value right and left who secured 6.8 and 6.2 per systems coexist in social and political institu- cent, respectively. Hitherto, splits amongst tions, and are in a permanent state of flux; the liberal camp would have ensured victory each of the three normative orientations have for the conservative candidate in the single- moments of dominance. This context of com- round presidential election. This time peting value systems makes for weak formal around, the combined centrist, liberal and institutions and, simultaneously, inserts the leftist vote amounted to a two-thirds major- highly personalised culture of leadership ity of the votes cast, which is unprecedented and/or management into South Korea’s in South Korea’s electoral history. organisations and workplaces. As a result, During the election campaign, the con- rules and regulations frequently exist on tested issues were many. The main domestic paper only and can often be overruled by topics concerned the need to reform the rela- the highest-ranking person. In the same con- tionship between the state and the chaebols, text, leaders will usually bring their own issues of unemployment and underemploy- agendas to institutions: seemingly ‘great’ ment, demographic decline, and quality of projects appear out of nowhere, only to dis- life issues such as the problem of heavy air appear again once the leadership changes— pollution. In addition, the candidates all

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The Political Quarterly, Vol. 88, No. 3 © The Author 2017. The Political Quarterly © The Political Quarterly Publishing Co. Ltd. 2017 commented on the need for constitutional and security policy: how far will Moon be reforms to replace the ‘imperial presidency’ able to assert himself when faced with with a system which devolved some presi- Trump and his team, on the one hand, and dential powers to other political actors, such China and Russia on the other? as the prime minister or parliament. How- ever, a precondition for successful constitu- Conclusion tional reform would be collaboration by the political parties in order to achieve the neces- This article posed the question of whether sary qualified majority in parliament. The the impeachment of former conservative deep-seated political factionalism, and the President Park and the election of the new absence of a tradition of coalition govern- liberal President Moon points to transforma- ment, make meaningful change hard to tive change in South Korean politics and foresee. society. Will the current political climate The major development during the elec- allow for the recalibration of South Korean tion campaign was the surprise move by the democracy thirty years after the last constitu- USA to install an anti-missile defence system tional revision during the transition to in South Korea. The installation of the Termi- democracy in 1987? How is the country nal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) going to overcome the conflict between the was the response of the Trump administra- rising expectations of a sophisticated citi- tion to the recent rocket testing of the North. zenry, and the limited ability of the political The manner in which the THAAD system institutions to deliver substantial improve- was delivered to South Korea, on 25 April ments with regard to economic and quality 2017, can only be described as US unilateral- of life issues? Can the deep-seated structural ism: it remained unclear as to what consulta- problems in the economy, workplace and tion of South Korean politicians had taken gender inequalities, demographic decline place, given that the Park impeachment had and environmental problems be resolved? created a vacuum in government. On the The trigger for comprehensive political campaign trail, Moon had stressed that the reform can, in principle, emerge from dif- deployment of THAAD should not be ferent directions, such as in the form of a rushed ahead of the presidential elections. In ‘big bang’ scheme, incremental adaptation fact, delivery occurred just days before the or reform by accident. The current political election and was immediately followed by leadership in South Korea was in part Trump’s suggestion that the issue of who delivered from each of these potential trig- should cover the THAAD expenses would gers. The street rallies that removed Presi- have to be re-negotiated with the view of dent Park from power were a decisive making South Korea pay more. ‘accidental’ ingredient that forced the old In this context, a potentially significant administration out and created a climate in development was that opinion polls pointed which the liberals, for the first time, man- to a clear majority of South Koreans favour- aged to capture a two-thirds majority of ing efforts to restore a more dialogue-based electoral support. relationship with the North, rather than a Improving democracy, and delivering further tightening of sanctions. Whilst the structural change, demands large-scale con- results of such opinion polls depended stitutional engineering. This would mean strongly on how the question was phrased, finding common ground between construc- it was nevertheless significant that a two- tive liberals and conservatives to change the thirds overall majority, including a signifi- 1987 Constitution—the rule book of the cant share of conservatives, do support intra- country’s political system—which currently Korean dialogue in some way or other.15 provides for the ‘winner-takes-all’ logic of When on the campaign trail, the new Presi- the country’s ‘imperial presidency’. The Con- dent Moon handled the issue well: conserva- stitution itself ensures that any incoming tive allegations about him being ‘soft’ on President loses interest in constitutional national security had little effect on voters. change the moment they enter the presiden- Moon’s election will be an interesting test tial palace. Since a President is, from that case for the future of South Korean foreign point on, removed from the rest of the

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© The Author 2017. The Political Quarterly © The Political Quarterly Publishing Co. Ltd. 2017 The Political Quarterly, Vol. 88, No. 3 political system, they primarily focus on www.nytimes.com/2014/08/31/world/asia/ what could be accomplished in the short an-artist-is-rebuked-for-casting-south-- window of time provided by the single five- leader-in-an-unflattering-light.html?module= year presidential term.16 Thus, the presiden- Search&mabReward=relbias%3As (accessed 1 tial incentive has always been to concentrate June 2017). 4 K.-m. Lee, ‘Investigations: Cheong Wa Dae cre- on the issues at hand rather than to think ated both “blacklist and whitelist” to control about the future. Yet the emergence of a artists’, Korea Times, 6 March 2017; http:// two-party liberal axis with two different www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/03/ leadership personalities (Moon and Ahn) 251_225165.html (accessed 1 June 2017). could potentially deliver a broader coalition 5 J. M. Dostal, H.-j. Kim and A. Ringstad, ‘A his- for change. torical-institutionalist analysis of the MV Sewol The current ‘imperial presidency’ in South and MS Estonia tragedies: policy lessons from ’ Korea is intimately linked to the underdevel- Sweden for South Korea , Korean Journal of Pol- – opment of party politics, and the weakness icy Studies, vol. 30, no. 1, 2015, pp. 35 71. 6 W. Stanton, ‘ROK presidential election: still the of parliament. This, in turn, relates to the ’ fi politics of the vortex , 20 July 2007; https:// predominantly rst past the post electoral wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/07SEOUL2178_a. system, producing leader-focussed catch-all html (accessed 1 June 2017). This leaked US parties, rather than more complex demo- embassy document outlines the history of cratic deliberation and coalition government. Park’s relationship with foundations facilitating In sum, serious constitutional engineering her political career. The same document refer- would have to encompass all of the major ences two related reports, also available from political institutions in order to deliver the same website, on conflicts and factionalism meaningful changes. The current situation within the conservative and liberal camps, respectively. provides a unique opportunity that did not ‘ exist before President Moon’s election. 7 S.-y. Rhyu, Catastrophe 2016 in South Korea: a tale of dynamic history and resilient democ- Last, constitutional change would only be racy’, Foundation, 22 November 2016; one starting point amongst others. There are http://www.keaf.org/book/EAF_Policy_Deba — certainly many other serious problems the te_Catastrophe_2016_in_South_Korea:_A_Tale_ future of the country’s economic strategy, of_Dynamic_History_and_Resilient_Democracy? national security in a multipolar world and ckattempt=1 (accessed 1 June 2017). issues having to do with the social quality of 8 For the period of democratic transition in ’ — 1987, see J.-h. Kim, Die paradoxe Rolle der citizens life that all need to be tackled € urgently. After all, another export-oriented Demokratie beim Ubergang zum neoliberalen Kap- italismus in Sudkorea€ , Frankfurt am Main, Peter country in demographic decline next door – has not yet found the way out from what Lang, 2016, pp. 166 8. For background on the political , see J.-h. used to be referred to as the developmental Ahn, ‘Abortive attempts at non-liberal capital- state, but might now have to be referenced ism in Korea: lessons from the small welfare as the state of stagnation. Now is the time to states of western Europe’, paper presented at seize the moment. the World Congress for Korean Politics and Society, Gwangju, South Korea, 26 August Notes 2015. 9 See ‘The Constitution of the Republic of Korea’ 1 In the South Korean context, the term ‘imperial (last amended 29 October 1987), and for the presidency’ refers primarily to the powerful weak position of parliament especially Articles role of the president with regard to domestic 53 (4) and 57; http://english.ccourt.go.kr/cck agenda-setting as defined by the country’s home/images/eng/main/Constitution_of_the_ 1987 Constitution. Thus, the usage of the terms Republic_of_Korea.pdf (accessed 1 June 2017). differs from the US case. More recently, the deliberative and veto power 2 K. Korroch, ‘Beyond the detail: censorship at of Korea’s parliament has been strengthened. the Gwangju Biennale’, Dilettante Army web- In particular, parliamentary commissions are site, 2014; http://www.dilettantearmy.com/fac supposed to engage in qualified majority voting ts/beyond-detail (accessed 1 June 2017). in order to strengthen collaboration between 3 S.-h. Choe, ‘An artist is rebuked for casting government and opposition parties; see H. Jeong, South Korea’s leader in an unflattering light’, ‘Parliamentary reform act under fire’, Korea New York Times, 31 August 2014; https:// Herald, 15 October 2014; http://www.koreahera

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The Political Quarterly, Vol. 88, No. 3 © The Author 2017. The Political Quarterly © The Political Quarterly Publishing Co. Ltd. 2017 ld.com/view.php?ud=20141015000842 (accessed 14 For the dramatic differences in voting beha- 1 June 2017). viour between the different regions in the 2017 10 G. Henderson, Korea: The Politics of the Vortex, presidential election, see ‘How the people Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, voted’, Reuters Graphics, 10 May 2017; http:// 1968, quote taken from the dustcover. fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/SOUTH 11 BOK, Economic Statistics System; http://ecos.b KOREA-ELECTION/010040X91Z1/index.html ok.or.kr (accessed 1 June 2017). (accessed 1 June 2017). 12 Eurostat, ‘Gross domestic expenditure on R 15 W.-w. Yi, ‘Nearly seventy per cent back dialogue & D 2005 and 2015 (% of GDP)’, 8 February with N. Korea’, Korea Times, 26 April 2017; 2017; http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics- http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/ explained/index.php/File:Gross_domestic_expend 2017/04/103_228332.html (accessed 1 June 2017). iture_on_R_%26_D,_2005_and_2015_%28%25_ 16 Directly after his election, president Moon of_GDP%29_YB17.png (accessed 1 June 2017). announced that he plans to leave the current 13 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and presidential palace in favour of new office Development (OECD), Government at a Glance: space in the city centre of Seoul. This is sup- How Korea Compares, Paris, OECD, 2016, pp. posed to symbolise his commitment to open- 60–1. ness and transparency during his presidency.

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© The Author 2017. The Political Quarterly © The Political Quarterly Publishing Co. Ltd. 2017 The Political Quarterly, Vol. 88, No. 3