DOCSLIB.ORG

Country Report Sudan at a Glance: 2003-04

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Country Report Sudan at a Glance: 2003-04 Country Report June 2003 Sudan Sudan at a glance: 2003-04 OVERVIEW The peace process between the government and the leading southern rebel force, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army, will be kept alive by international pressure, although little of substance will be agreed in the short term. A ceasefire remains in effect until the end of June, while talks have been suspended until July. A US presidential report to Congress on the commitment of the Sudanese government to peace avoided calling for sanctions, signalling US support for ongoing dialogue. A significant rise in oil exports and a recovery in non-oil exports in 2003 are expected to ensure strong real GDP growth of 5.9%, slowing marginally to 5.3% in 2004. The current-account deficit, however, will widen over the forecast period to US$1.74bn by end-2004 (9.6% of GDP). Key changes from last month Political outlook • With halting progress in the peace talks, the political outlook is dependent upon the continued commitment to negotiations. Many obstacles remain, not least the role of the opposition groups not included in the talks and the growing unrest in the west of the country. Economic policy outlook • The government will not veer from its commitment to IMF-led policies, although expenditure may stray beyond agreed limits. Economic policy will continue to centre on balancing the budget through subsidy cutting and raising taxes. These measures, combined with a revised oil price forecast, will result in a reduced budget deficit of SD5.5bn (US$21.1m; 0.1% of GDP) in 2003, which will then widen in 2004 to SD33bn. Economic forecast • Real GDP is set to grow sharply in 2003-04, driven by increased oil output and rising non-oil exports. The Central Bank of Sudan has in effect pegged the dinar to the dollar in an attempt to maintain price stability. Inflation will remain high but stable, averaging around 10% in 2003-04. June 2003 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 60/F, Central Plaza London 111 West 57th Street 18 Harbour Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2585 3888 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at www.store.eiu.com Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office Copyright © 2003 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 0269-6150 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Patersons Dartford, Questor Trade Park, 151 Avery Way, Dartford, Kent DA1 1JS, UK. Sudan 1 Contents 3 Summary 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 5 Annual indicators 6 Quarterly indicators 7 Outlook for 2003-04 7 Political outlook 8 Economic policy outlook 9 Economic forecast 12 The political scene 18 Economic policy 21 The domestic economy 21 Economic trends 22 Oil and gas 26 Agriculture 27 Foreign trade and payments List of tables 9 International assumptions summary 12 Forecast summary 19 Budget balance 28 Trade balance 29 Import spending 31 Export revenue 31 Official reserves List of figures 6Money supply 6Foreign trade 12 Gross domestic product 12 Consumer price inflation 21 Inflation, 2002 22 Exchange rate Country Report June 2003 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2003 Sudan 3 Summary June 2003 Outlook for 2003-04 The peace process between the government and the leading southern rebel force, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army, will be kept alive by international pressure, although little of substance will be agreed in the short term. A ceasefire remains in effect until the end of June, while talks have been sus- pended until July. A US presidential report to Congress on the commitment of the Sudanese government to peace avoided calling for sanctions, signalling US support for ongoing dialogue. A significant rise in oil exports and a recovery in non-oil exports in 2003 are expected to ensure strong real GDP growth of 5.9%, slowing marginally to 5.3% in 2004. The current-account deficit, however, will widen over the forecast period to US$1.74bn by end-2004 (9.6% of GDP). The political scene The war in Iraq diverted international attention from the Sudanese peace process, which is no closer to a resolution. Despite the slow progress, the US chose not to implement sanctions under the Sudan Peace Act in April, and also praised Sudan for its improved co-operation over international security issues, despite remaining on the list of state sponsors of terrorism. The ceasefire has broadly held, although a new conflict has broken out in the far west of the country. Sudan has stepped up its support for Eritrean opposition groups as relations with Eritrean government have continued to deteriorate. Economic policy The economic reform programme has yielded significant results, according to a new World Bank report, which shows Sudan to be one of Africa’s fastest growing economies. A privatised telecommunications company, SudaTel, became the first Sudanese firm to be listed on an overseas capital market, and the government has moved ahead with the liberalisation of the telecoms sector. Sudan has taken over as chair of an African free-trade organisation, but its efforts to boost regional trade continue to face significant non-tariff barriers. The domestic economy Oil production is set to rise strongly following an upgrade to the export pipeline that has boosted capacity. A Canadian oil company, Talisman, has finally completed the sale of its stake in the foreign consortium developing the oil sector, although it will face a court case over allegations of human rights abuses. Mobil has also sold the remainder of its assets in Sudan, and a Swedish firm, Lundin, has reduced its presence significantly. Aid agencies report that the food situation is less precarious than had initially been feared, although areas of acute shortage remain. Agreements between the government, the rebels and the UN have significantly improved the humanitarian relief programme in the south. Foreign trade and payments Despite an increase in export earnings, Sudan’s trade balance moved into deficit in 2002, as import spending soared. Nevertheless, official reserves rose strongly during the year, ending 2002 at record levels. The reserve stock remains dwarfed by outstanding foreign debt, however, which new data show to be overwhelmingly in arrears. Editors: Philip McCrum (editor); James Reeve (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: June 6th 2003 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: Full schedule on www.eiu.com/schedule Country Report June 2003 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2003 4 Sudan Political structure Official name Republic of Sudan Legal system Under the constitution, sharia (Islamic law) is applicable countrywide in both civil and criminal cases. In practice, much of southern Sudan is exempt National legislature A 400-member National Assembly (parliament), of which 264 members are elected and 136 are appointed by the president National elections December 2000 (presidential and parliamentary); next elections due to be held in 2005 Head of state Lieutenant-General Omar Hassan Ahmed al-Beshir, who took office following the 1989 coup and was sworn in as president in October 1993; elected in March 1996 for a five-year term; re-elected in December 2000; next elections due in 2005 National government A joint military-civilian cabinet, the Council of Ministers, last reshuffled in February 2001 Main political parties All political parties were banned following the June 1989 coup that was backed by the National Congress (NC). The NC, known as the National Islamic Front (NIF) until it changed its name in January 1999, is the ruling party Main opposition groups The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army, its military
Load more

Recommended publications
  • 2002-04-07 ASSOCIATE PARLIAMENTARY GROUP On
    ASSOCIATE PARLIAMENTARY GROUP ON SUDAN Visit to Sudan 7th - 12th April 2002 Facilitated by Christian Aid, Oxfam GB, Save the Children, Tearfund, and the British Embassy, Khartoum ASSOCIATE PARLIAMENTARY GROUP ON SUDAN Visit to Sudan 7th - 12th April 2002 Facilitated by Christian Aid, Oxfam GB, Save the Children, Tearfund, and the British Embassy, Khartoum Associate Parliamentary Group on Sudan 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We visited Sudan between April 6th and 13th 2002 under the auspices of the Associate Parliamentary Group for Sudan accompanied by HM Ambassador to Sudan Richard Makepeace, Dan Silvey of Christian Aid and the Group co-ordinator Colin Robertson. Our grateful thanks go to Colin and Dan for their superb organisation, tolerance and patience, to Christian Aid, Oxfam GB, Save the Children and Tearfund for their financial and logistical support, and to Ambassador Makepeace for his unfailing courtesy, deep knowledge of the current situation and crucial introductions. Our visit to southern Sudan could not have gone ahead without the hospitality and support of Susan from Unicef in Rumbek and Julie from Tearfund at Maluakon. As well as being grateful to them and their organisations we are enormously impressed by their courage and commitment to helping people in such difficult and challenging circumstances. Thanks to the efforts of these and many others we were able to pack a huge number of meetings and discussions into a few days, across several hundred miles of the largest country in Africa. The primary purpose of our visit was to listen and learn. Everyone talked to us of peace, and of their ideas about the sort of political settlement needed to ensure that such a peace would be sustainable, with every part of the country developed for the benefit of all of its people.
    [Show full text]
  • Oil and Conflict in Sudan
    Sudan Update - Raising the stakes - Oil and conflict in Sudan SUDAN UPDATE Raising the stakes: Oil and conflict in Sudan 1 Sudan Update - Raising the stakes - Oil and conflict in Sudan Reports: Oil Raising the stakes: Oil and conflict in Sudan 1 - Introduction OIL BOOM? On 30 August 1999, Sudan filled its first tanker-load of oil. A gigantic pipeline snaking up from oilfields over 1600 kilometres into the African hinterland was at last disgorging 100,000 barrels a day of crude oil at a nearly-completed marine terminal near Port Sudan, on the Red Sea. It offered fulfilment of countless promises of oil wealth that had been repeated to the Sudanese people by their rulers over the last quarter of a century. Billions of dollars had been invested, first in exploration, then pipeline, refinery and terminal construction. Now Sudan, Africa's largest country, could join OPEC and hold its head up as an oil exporter alongside Saudi Arabia and Libya, said Sudan's government ministers. Their critics replied that if it did join OPEC it would be politically insignificant alongside the major producers. Better parallels would be with the repression, sabotage, corruption and pollution encountered in Burma, Colombia or the Niger Delta. Just three weeks later, on 20 September 1999, opponents of Sudan's military regime blew a hole in the newly-completed pipeline. The explosion took place just outside the town of Atbara, the centre of Sudan's railway industry, on the river Nile above Khartoum. The location is important because - if one believed the oil companies or the government - it was so unlikely.
    [Show full text]
  • Nigeria's Peace Keeping Role in Darfur
    View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by InfinityPress Journal of Studies in Social Sciences ISSN 2201-4624 Volume 4, Number 1, 2013, 76-91 Nigeria’s Peace Keeping Role in Darfur Arinze Ngwube General Studies Unit, Federal University Oye Ekiti, Ekiti State Abstract Foreign policy of any nation serves as a mirror of its domestic reality. It begins with identification and articulation of national interests. It is very important to assert that whatever this nation‟s interest represents, serves the principal consideration in the formulation and execution of national policies both at domestic and international levels. One of the cardinal points of Nigerian foreign policy is the maintenance of peace and security in Africa .This has enabled her to play an active role in peacemaking and peace keeping in the continent since independence. Nigeria has participated in many peacekeeping and related missio ns globally. In line with her foreign policy, Darfur is not an exception. Nigeria has not only been a key actor in political efforts to mediate in the Darfur Crisis, but in addition has provided a bulk of her troops to the African-Union-United Nations hybrid peace keeping mission in Darfur. The conflict in Darfur constituted a threat to Nigeria‟s security largely because of Darfuri links to neighbouring states which are close to Nigeria. The possibility of the flow of refugees from the conflict area into Nigeria could be a problem. The implication on the security and welfare of Nigerians is an issue that cannot be ignored.
    [Show full text]
  • Rapid Change and Standstill Peacemaking, Covid-19 and Rumours in South Sudan
    Researching livelihoods and services affected by conflict Rapid change and standstill Peacemaking, Covid-19 and rumours in South Sudan Working paper 95 Mareike Schomerus and Charles Taban July 2021 Written by Mareike Schomerus and Charles Taban SLRC publications present information, analysis and key policy recommendations on issues relating to livelihoods, basic services and social protection in conflict-affected situations. This and other SLRC publications are available from www.securelivelihoods.org. Funded by UK aid from the UK Government, Irish Aid and the EC. Disclaimer: The views presented in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the UK Government’s official policies or represent the views of Irish Aid, the EC, SLRC or our partners. ©SLRC 2021. Readers are encouraged to quote or reproduce material from SLRC for their own publications. As copyright holder SLRC requests due acknowledgement. Secure Livelihoods Research Consortium Overseas Development Institute (ODI) 203 Blackfriars Road London SE1 8NJ United Kingdom T +44 (0)20 3817 0031 F +44 (0)20 7922 0399 E [email protected] www.securelivelihoods.org @SLRCtweet Cover photo: Internally Displaced Persons in Juba, South Sudan. UN Photo: Isaac Billy, 2016 About us The Secure Livelihoods Research Consortium (SLRC) is a global research programme exploring basic services and social protection in fragile and conflict-affected situations. Funded by UK aid from the UK Government (Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, FCDO), with complementary funding from Irish Aid and the European Commission (EC), SLRC was established in 2011 with the aim of strengthening the evidence base and informing policy and practice around livelihoods and services in conflict.
    [Show full text]
  • Rethinking Water, Climate Change and Conflict in the Sudans
    Global Environmental Change 29 (2014) 360–370 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Global Environmental Change jo urnal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/gloenvcha Beyond scarcity: Rethinking water, climate change and conflict in the Sudans a, b Jan Selby *, Clemens Hoffmann a Department of International Relations, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QN, UK b Department of International Relations, Bilkent University, 06800 Ankara, Turkey A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T Article history: This article develops a new framework for understanding environment-conflict relations, on both Received 23 April 2013 theoretical grounds and through a qualitative historical analysis of the links between water and conflict in Received in revised form 6 January 2014 the states of Sudan and South Sudan. Theoretically, the article critiques the dominant emphases on Accepted 8 January 2014 ‘scarcity’, ‘state failure’ and ‘under-development’ within discussions of environmental security, and Available online 21 February 2014 proposes an alternative model of environment-conflict relations centring on resource abundance and globally-embedded processes of state-building and development. Empirically, it examines three claimed Keywords: (or possible) linkages between water and conflict in the Sudans: over trans-boundary waters of the Nile; Water over the links between internal resource scarcities and civil conflict; and over the internal conflict impacts Conflict of water abundance and development. We find that there exists only limited evidence in support of the first Climate change Scarcity two of these linkages, but plentiful evidence that water abundance, and state-directed processes of Sudan economic development and internal colonisation relating to water, have had violent consequences.
    [Show full text]
  • Table of Contents
    WPF Report 26 SUDAN: POLICY OPTIONS AMID CIVIL WAR by Rachel M. Gisselquist and POSTSCRIPT by Deborah L. West Copyright © 2000 WORLD PEACE FOUNDATION 79 John F. Kennedy St. Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138 Tel: 617-496-2258 Fax: 617-491-8588 E-mail: [email protected] www.worldpeacefoundation.org All rights reserved CONTENTS SUDAN: POLICY OPTIONS AMID CIVIL WAR 1 By Rachel Gisselquist A Divided State 3 The Roots of the Conflict 5 The State of Politics 6 Opposition Movements 7 The Controversy Over Oil 8 A Terrorist State? 9 Slavery/Abduction 10 The State of the War 11 The Peace Process 11 The Humanitarian Crisis 13 Policy Options for the U.S. 14 Engaging the Government 15 Disengage from the North, Engage with the South 17 Conference Participants 19 POSTSCRIPT 21 By Deborah Weinberg Conference Participants 25 WPF Report 26: Sudan: Policy Options Amid Civil War 1 Sudan: Policy Options Amid Civil War by Rachel M. Gisselquist1 Sudan, Africa’s largest country, has been at war with itself for seventeen years. The bitter civil conflict between the North and the South has claimed 2 million lives and displaced over 4 million of the country’s 28 million people within Sudan. More than 400,000 have fled to neighboring countries.2 The war maintains the desperate poverty of a once rich nation and ensures that the Sudan’s human development indicators remain among the lowest in the world. For military leaders on both sides, continued conflict may seem preferable to making concessions for peace. For most Sudanese, however, interminable insecurity and shifting battles across most of the South and parts of the West and the North remain a heavy burden.
    [Show full text]
  • The Paradox of Peace in Sudan and South Sudan Why the Political Settlements Failed to Endure
    The Paradox of Peace in Sudan and South Sudan Why the Political Settlements Failed to Endure Jok Madut Jok IPS Paper 15 Abstract This paper emphasises the contradiction that has emerged in Sudan and South Sudan since the two regions signed a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005, ending their two decade long civil war. The CPA was a compromise between the risk of violent state disintegration on the one hand – should the war continue any longer, and allowing for a peaceful split on the other, should the two sides fail to agree on equitable terms for continued unity. In either case, the hope was for an end to violence through a mediated political settlement. Unfortunately, the settlement neither saved the unity of the country nor produced peace. Instead, the country broke into two and violence continued both between the two Sudans and within them. This paper argues that the continuation of violence within each country and the threat of return to inter-state war are a result of the failure of the political settlement reached through the CPA. This is due to the win-lose attitude held by the parties going into the negotiations, with the South's Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) set to achieve all its political demands without conceding anything and Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) aiming to frustrated the SPLM’s demands without losing anything. They are also born of the inclusivity project that was to undergird the whole accord. It was the variety of stakeholders excluded from both the negotiations and the implementation of the Agreement that intrinsically “spoiled” the Agreement.
    [Show full text]
  • Report of a Fact-Finding Mission to Khartoum, Sudan
    Report of a fact-finding mission to Khartoum, Sudan Conducted between 10 and 17 August 2018 Published: November 2018 This project is part funded by the EU Asylum, Migration Contentsand Integration Fund. Making management of migration flows more efficient across the European Union. Contents Background .......................................................................................................... 5 Purpose of the mission ....................................................................................... 5 Methodology ............................................................................................................. 5 Research standards ......................................................................................... 5 Identification of sources ................................................................................... 5 Arranging and conducting interviews ............................................................... 6 Notes of interviews/meetings ........................................................................... 6 FFM team observations ................................................................................... 6 Terminology ..................................................................................................... 6 Structure of this report ..................................................................................... 7 List of abbreviations ............................................................................................ 8 Executive summary .................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Prioritization and Sequencing of Security Council Mandates: the Case of UNITAMS
    Prioritization and Sequencing of Security Council Mandates: The Case of UNITAMS MAY 2021 Introduction In June 2021, the UN Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) for the first time. In this context, the International Peace Institute (IPI), the Stimson Center, and Security Council Report organized a virtual workshop on April 26, 2021, to discuss UNITAMS’s mandate and political strategy. The workshop offered a forum for member-state representa- On April 26, 2021, the International tives, UN officials, and outside experts to develop a shared understanding and Peace Institute (IPI), the Stimson common strategic assessment of the situation in Sudan. The session was Center, and Security Council Report intended to help the Security Council make informed decisions with respect organized a virtual workshop to to the strategic orientation, prioritization, and sequencing of UNITAMS’s discuss the mandate and political mandate and actions on the ground. strategy of the United Nations Participants highlighted that the mission’s current strategic objectives— Integrated Transition Assistance assisting the political transition; supporting peace processes; assisting Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS). These peacebuilding, civilian protection, and the rule of law; and mobilizing discussions are part of a series of economic, development, and humanitarian assistance—are areas where the 1 workshops that examines how the UN can add value. Yet in the renewed mandate, participants encouraged the activities included in the peace Security Council to provide more focus within these ambitious priorities and to support a more inclusive Sudanese political transition. operations’ mandates can be better prioritized, sequenced, and grounded in a political strategy.
    [Show full text]
  • Sudan: Prospects for Peace
    24 November 2005 review Sudan: prospects for peace For free Forced Migration Review, published by the Refugee Studies distribution Centre of the University of Oxford, is the world’s most widely only read magazine on refugee and internal displacement issues Forced Migration Review from the editors provides a forum for the regular exchange of udan’s civil war was like no other. practical experience, information and ideas between researchers, refugees and internally displaced people, It began even before the British and those who work with them. It is published in English, Scolonialists – blamed by many Spanish, Arabic and French by the Refugee Studies historians for making it inevitable – had Centre/University of Oxford. left. One in five people in Sudan, Africa’s Editors largest country, has been displaced by 50 Marion Couldrey & Dr Tim Morris years of conflict. Recent efforts by Sudan’s Subscriptions Assistant leaders, neighbours and the international Sharon Ellis community to end the fighting and prepare Corinne Owen Corinne Forced Migration Review for post-conflict development have been Refugee Studies Centre, Department of International Development, unprecedented in terms of time and energy expended. Mansfield Road, Oxford OX1 3TB, UK. Email: [email protected] Tel: +44 (0)1865 280700 • Skype: fmreview Many issues dividing Sudan – particularly Darfur – are not addressed by the Compre- Fax: +44 (0)1865 270721 hensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in Nairobi by the two main parties to the conflict. Website Sudan’s new Government of National Unity is not without its critics. There have been www.fmreview.org significant delays in the agreed timetable for merging the northern and southern armies, establishing the Government of South Sudan and delivering funding pledged by the international community in Oslo in April.
    [Show full text]
  • Report of the Secretary-General on the Sudan
    United Nations S/2010/31 Security Council Distr.: General 19 January 2010 Original: English Report of the Secretary-General on the Sudan I. Introduction 1. The present report is submitted pursuant to paragraph 11 of Security Council resolution 1590 (2005), in which the Council requested that it be kept regularly informed of progress in the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in the Sudan. The report provides an assessment of the overall situation in the country since my previous report, dated 21 October 2009 (S/2009/545), as well as an update on the activities of the United Nations Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS) up to 31 December 2009. II. Security situation 2. During the reporting period, the security situation in the Sudan remained calm in the North, with the exception of incidents in Darfur concerning which I will report separately. In the South, there were numerous clashes and attacks, mainly in Upper Nile, Unity and Jonglei States, as well as the triangle between Jonglei, Central Equatoria and Lakes States. In an apparent retaliation for attacks in September, Dinka attacked the Lou Nuer in Uror County (Jonglei State) on 17 October, reportedly killing seven people and burning 120 houses. On 16 November, a confrontation over cattle between Mundari and Dinka Aliap in Awerial County (Lakes State) reportedly left 49 people dead. Skirmishes between Shilluk and Dinka in Upper Nile State between 7 and 13 November resulted in 11 reported casualties. 3. The security situation in Bentiu remained tense following fighting between forces commanded by Governor Taban Deng Gai and the Second-in-Command of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) General Paulino Matiep on 2 October.
    [Show full text]
  • South Sudan's High Level Revitalization Forum
    UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE PEACEBRIEF228 United States Institute of Peace • www.usip.org • Tel. 202.457.1700 • @usip August 2017 ALY VERJEE South Sudan’s High Level Email: [email protected] Revitalization Forum Identifying Conditions for Success Summary • Regional leaders have endorsed the creation of a new peace initiative in South Sudan: the High Level Revitalization Forum (HLRF). The HLRF is intended to revive the stalled 2015 peace agreement. • Important design questions for the format and content of the HLRF remain undecided. Which armed and civilian actors are eligible to participate is unclear, and the HLRF risks being an exclusionary initiative, which will undermine the prospects for a durable, compre- hensive peace. • Key features of the 2015 peace agreement are no longer political or practical realities. The agenda for the HLRF should be designed accordingly. Obsolete provisions should be amended, while maintaining the essential set of reform and transitional justice commit- ments specified in the 2015 agreement. If such uncertainties • The timetable for the HLRF talks should remain limited to prevent intransigent parties from “remain unaddressed prior further delaying any progress toward peace. to the commencement of • From the outset, international political and financial support should be conditional on the the Forum, the prospects parameters of inclusive participation, a defined and limited agenda, and adherence to the timetable being implemented by the Forum’s regional facilitators. for this initiative to reduce violence
    [Show full text]