Space Investment Trends and Challenges

NASA Ames Space Portal Commercial Space Telecon July 15, 2020

Greg Autry, PhD University of Southern California Director, Pacific Commercial Spaceflight Initiative, Aldrin Space Institute All systems were nominal

Source: Space Investment Quarterly (Q1 20202), Space Capital All systems were nominal

Close enough for private sector work. J

Source: Space Investment Quarterly (Q4 2019), Space Capital Source: Startup Space 2020, Bryce All systems were nominal (even if the data smelled a little iffy)

Q4 2019 Q1 2020

Source: Space Investment Quarterly, Space Capital How $5.8B became $20B

2019 YTD

Q1 2020

Source: Space Investment Quarterly, Space Capital Everything was nominal

OECD (2014) found commercial revenue in the global space economy was dominated by consumer services (58 percent)

Source: The Space Report, The Space Foundation Data is hard!

Source: The Space Report, The Space Foundation However, there are some drawbacks to this data Data is hard! source. BLS collects data using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which do not align perfectly with the boundaries of the space industry

Overall, there are 17 NAICS categories that include space workers, but only the five most closely aligned with the space sector are included here.

Broadcast and Wireless Communications Equipment Manufacturing, Guided Missile and Space Vehicle Manufacturing, Space Vehicle Propulsion Units and Parts Manufacturing, Other Guided Missile and Space Vehicle Parts, and Satellite Telecommunications.

Source: The Space Report, The Space Foundation Help is on the way! Relativity! SPCE! SPCE! However, no more fantasy islands

October 31, 2018 January 2, 2019 Legitimacy!

Source: G. Autry 2013 Location, Location, Location!

Hmmm. . . .

Infrastructure Distribution Applications Launch & Satellite Comms. & Nav. Nav, Comms, Sensing

Source: Space Investment Quarterly (Q1, 2020), Space Capital China, China, China!

the new “commercial” line of Kuaizhou launch vehicles developed by the supposed start-up ExPace, billed as the first Chinese private rocket company, are actually built by the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation, a state-owned company that is a key part of China’s defense industry. Their rockets are multistage solid rocket systems launched from transportable erector launchers, basically mobile intercontinental ballistic missile systems but with economic payloads and targets.

ExPace announced they will set launch prices for the new Kuaizhou 11 at just $5,000 per kilogram, about 20 percent of the prevailing market rate for small launchers. Equal and opposite reactions . . .

“In response to a significant change in financing, Vector Launch Inc (Vector) announced today that it is $5,000 per kilogram undertaking a pause of operations,” Equal and opposite reactions . . . The COVID challenge

SENSIBLE? Anecdotes from the field

Obviously COVID has impacted the market, which I expect will slow the industry down with short and medium-term impact, but I believe long-term the market will return to health. Launches are delaying, SBIRs are pushing back, supply chains are disrupted. Access to lab space and testing facilities is limited or gone.

From what I’ve seen, at least at the seed stage, capital is still there and rounds are still coming together, but the timelines are definitely stretching out. The urgency levels aren’t matched.

Matt Kozolv, Managing Director, Techstars Anecdotes from the field

We completed our series B with very fortuitous timing, but there is money out there again. We are seeing an uptick in investment on real hardware. Real infrastructure which is more robust. It’s pure technology development that there is significant value in. It’s not just sales projections, it’s that can be repurposed and applied all over.

Jordan Noone, CTO Relativity Space Anecdotes from the field

Government investment processes have slowed. Private investors, family offices are moving forward and are not wanting to miss the opportunity in space.

Investment banks are slowed by reorgs at the departmental and director levels as well as technological challenges with remote operations.

Our seed and series A yielded $20m. We have secured a series B lead investor and are expecting to close a much larger series B shortly.

Amir Blachman, Chief Business Officer, Axiom Space Anecdotes from the field: Praise for NASA

• Quick, commercial and effective • Commercial Crew – finally! • Initial Gateway module awards (PPE & Hab) commercial • Initial Gateway launches commercial • SpaceX Dragon XL resupply contract • CLPS awards, Masten, etc. • ISS port award • Free flyer plans Anecdotes from the field: Praise for DoD

• More $ • Much better procurement models • DIU • AF Space Pitch Day = $22.5m • SDO • SCO • Space Force All of government seems to get it Course adjustments in progress A Mega Down Round!

• UK Gov’t £450m = 45% • Bharti Global = 45% • Original investors hold 10% • “The U.K. government will have a final say over any future sale of the company, and over future access to OneWeb technology by other countries on national security grounds.” We will still make orbit! Hunt me down @

• [email protected] • @gregWautry