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SPACE RACE: Commercialising the Path SPACE RACE: Commercialising the Path Point-of-View July 2021 Contents From race of superpowers Roads to success to race of billionaires in exploring space What is shaping the space Who are in the space exploration industry of today? race of today? Future of in-space economy Introduction to What benefits will a space journey space exploration bring Executive summary for the economy? 2 Introduction to a space journey Journey into space started 50 years ago with nations’ race making first steps using moderate technology at hand… Key elements of space journey 50 years ago Nations’ Space race Single use rockets & costly shuttles First milestones achieved: 1st man in space Industry drivers: 1st step on the Moon ideology & national pride 1st space station 3 Source: BDO Centers analysis Introduction to a space journey …and continues with visionary leaders driving space into the era of affordable travel and game-changing projects Key elements of space journey now Billionaires’ Space race Ambitious projects Reusable, cheap, are about to come true: and big rockets moon base, people on Mars & beyond, space tourism Industry drivers: commercialisation & business leaders’ aspiration 4 Source: BDO Centers analysis Introduction to a space journey Active exploration and rapid growth of the global space industry enable multilateral perspectives in the future Key space players Prospective in-space industries Elon Musk Jeff Bezos Enable the Build the low-cost road to colonisation of Mars space to enable near-Earth Space Space logistics Space hospitality Space Space colonisation mining & Orbital & Travel manufacturing farming & Construction Richard Branson transportation Build the Spaceline for 2020 Earth to make space travel 2040 available for everyone 315 1,053 Bn USD Upcoming missions Predictions of future development Bn USD Governmental agencies Private companies SpaceX Artemis 85 MOON Rocket Lab Asteroid International Artemis Base Greenhousing Sustainability countries settlements Moon village Camp in space in space operating in space ESA in 2021 SpaceX MARS Roscosmos 5 Source: BDO Centers analysis FROM RACE OF SUPERPOWERS TO RACE OF BILLIONAIRES Space exploration started more than 50 years ago from small steps in satellites assembly… 50 years ahead and the world observes a tremendous boost in space technologies and missions… Future of space exploration has become close to humanity like never before From race of superpowers to race of billionaires In just 50 years of exploration, there was a tremendous boost in the space industry, starting from the Moon mission 1977 1st probe to study the 1957 1976 outer solar system 1st artificial satellite & Successful 1997 1st animal sent to orbit landing on Mars 1st operational rover on Mars 1981 1961 1st launch of a Yuri Gagarin: reusable space shuttle 1st human in space 1975 1998 1st multinational International Space crewed mission1 & Station established 1st probe on Venus 1969 Neil Armstrong: 1st human on the Moon 1982 1995 1st Venus soil 1st probe sample & sound on Jupiter 1970 1971 1st rover landed 1st space on the Moon station 1990 launched Hubble Space Telescope launched Nations’ competition Nations’ cooperation Source: Space — The Timeline: 50 Years of Spaceflight — [2012]; John M. Logsdon, Britannica — Space exploration — [2021] 7 Notes: (1) Included members from the USSR and the USA From race of superpowers to race of billionaires A New Space Age is boosted by big private companies entering the space, indicating commercialisation of industry 2014 2015 1st propulsive landing 1st soft landing of an orbital rocket 2001 on a comet Dennis Tito: 2012 1st propulsive landing st 1st space tourist 1 privately owned company of a suborbital rocket to carry cargo to ISS1 2020 1st orbital human 1st human-made probe spacecraft launched by a private company reached interstellar space China’s 1st manned 2003 earth orbiter 2018 1st operating rover Space Columbia broke on an asteroid apart at landing 1st privately developed rockets launched from a private spaceport 2021 2004 2008 NASA picked SpaceX to land Discovery of lunar Americans on the Moon 1st human spaceflight water (ice) launched by a private company & 1st private 2019 astronaut 1st soft landing in the far 1st successful launch of a site of the Moon & 1st privately developed rocket germination of seed on another celestial body First private companies Abundance of private companies Source: Space — The Timeline: 50 Years of Spaceflight — [2012]; John M. Logsdon, Britannica — Space exploration — [2021] 8 Notes: (1) International Space Station From race of superpowers to race of billionaires In XXI century, the cooperation of countries & companies is the most effective approach to conduct space exploration Artemis Moon programme is nowadays the biggest space Humanity, governments, and big enterprises exploration programme with the broad cooperation of countries have common goals in space & companies, both in public and private sector1 Increase capabilities and decrease costs for future NASA Orion spacecraft human and robotic space missions Sending first woman and next Space Launch System cooperation Companies Space-based research and observation of Earth to man on the Moon improve life on Earth and deal with environmental in 2024 problems International Exploration Ground Extend human knowledge of space, understanding space agencies of Earth, solar system, and the universe that may System support life Establishment of sustainable Human Landing System Explore and expand human presence beyond Earth and robust presence on and after that beyond the solar system cooperation agencies Space the Moon CAPSTONE launch Stimulate economic growth by the development of space-to-earth and space-to-space economy Source: NASA — Exploration Mission Integral to 2020 National Space Policy — [January 2021]; NASA website 9 Notes: (1) Selected companies are shown on the scheme From race of superpowers to race of billionaires The global space economy is projected to reach 1 Tn USD by 2040 with the commercial sector driving the market Global space economy, Bn USD 1,053 Governmental investment on space exploration +1% during 2019-2029, % of total 258 Bn USD 385 383 Governmental 21% sector 6% 47% 6% Transportation Orbital infrastructure 8% Commercial 79% Astronomy, astrophysics sector & heliophysics Moon exploration 13% 1 2 2019 2020 2040 Deep space exploration — leading space agency Mars exploration 85 countries NASA 466 spacecraft deployed 20% operating in space3 Budget 2021: 23.3 Bn USD 54% — by private companies4 Source: Space Foundation — The Space report — [Q2 2020]; Euroconsult — The Space economy report — [2020]; Statista website 10 Notes: (1) Based on the research of Euroconsult; (2) Based on the forecast of Morgan Stanley and Bank of America; (3) As of 2021; (4) In 2019 From race of superpowers to race of billionaires The satellite segment makes up 79% of the space economy with the USA as a leader in satellites quantity and launches Global space economy by segments in 2020 3,372 satellites are active in 20211,2 385 Bn USD 56.3% 12.2% 5.2% 79% Satellite uses by operational purposes in 2021 54.3% Navigation / Communications 26.9% Positioning 10.4% 4.4% 3.1% 0.9% Space science / Earth observation Observation Satellite industry Technology development / Earth science & Non-satellite industry demonstration Other purposes Source: Space Foundation — The Space report — [Q2 2020]; Union of Concerned Scientists website; Statista website Notes: (1) As of May 2021, the private company SpaceX owns 1,500 satellites; (2) Top-3 countries by active satellites 11 with a total share of 73.7% From race of superpowers to race of billionaires Exploration of space is focused on finding new ways to unlock the mysteries of the solar system and beyond 2018 2026-2034 Parker Solar Probe TITAN Dragonfly (NASA) (NASA) 2023-2025 2028-2030 Europe Clipper (NASA) NEPTUNE DAVINCHI+, VERITAS (NASA) 2021-2024 EUROPE Artemis (NASA) SATURN 1997-2017 VENUS 2024 Cassini DearMoon (SpaceX) (NASA, ESA, ASI3) MOON JUPITER 1989 MERCURY Voyager 2 (NASA) EARTH 2022 4 JUICE (NASA) URANU S MARS 2023-2025 2025 Europa Clipper 2018 BepiColombo (NASA) Voyager 2 (ESA1, JAXA2) (NASA) 1986 Voyager 2 (NASA) 2026-2028 Mars Sample Return (NASA) 2026 2012 Crewed mission (SpaceX) Voyager 1 (NASA) Source: NASA website; SpaceX website Notes: (1) European Space Agency; (2) Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency; (3) Italian Space Agency; (4) A number of 12 dedicated exploratory missions to Uranus have been proposed, yet none have been approved as of 2021 From race of superpowers to race of billionaires Moon exploration started with the US mission in 1969, yet nowadays more private companies enter the Moon race Nations landed on the Moon1 Major upcoming moon missions of private enterprises 2024 Space X 30 2 DearMoon 64 2023 Firefly Aerospace Blue Origin Blue Ghost Blue Moon 23 1 suссessful2 Moon missions Masten Space Systems / Draper Lab 2022 XL-1 / Artemis-7 7 1 PTScientists Rocket Lab 2021 Alina Photon Distance travel by Moon rovers, kilometres3,4 NASA budget on the Moon missions Lunokhod 2 38.9 Key reasons to explore the Moon Apollo 17 35.7 25.8 Bn USD 28.0 Bn USD or 257 Bn USD5 Apollo 15 27.8 Water and oxygen Precious metals, Helium-3 to create to produce rocket rocks, and rare fuel suitable for fuel and establish earths to create fusion energy Apollo 16 27.0 a human base building & raw generation materials Lunokhod 1 10.4 Project Apollo Artemis programme 1960-1973 2021F-2025F Source: NASA — NASA’s Lunar Exploration Program Overview —
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