30 Voices on 2030 – the Future of Space

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30 Voices on 2030

The future of space Communal, commercial, contested

May 2020

KPMG.com/au/30voicesonspace © 2020 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. 30 Voices on 2030

The future of space

Communal, commercial, contested

30 Voices on 2030: The Future of Space

Our 30 Voices on 2030 cover every facet of the global space industry and beyond – from space agencies and start-ups to VCs and media organisations. Taken together they create a valuable chorus of insight and expertise. Many of the views expressed in this report may be personal and not necessarily represent those of the Voices’ organisations or KPMG.

Visit KPMG.com/au/30voicesonspace to view the report online.

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Space and Defence Industry Mike Kalms Lead Partner, KPMG Australia KPMG

Right now, nothing invigorates The three that most resonated for business more than space. me were: firstly, space will be made more accessible, making it likely I’m serious. When the opportunity of that by 2030 you may well know space comes to the board, or another someone who has been to space. executive group in business, the first Secondly, the use of space data will thing that happens is leaders smile. expand significantly and turn into a They smile because space reminds commodity, which will provide value us all of something in our soul – that across different industries – from youthful quest for adventure, to emergency services to agriculture. explore and to grow. And finally, the potential of medical What’s amazing is we now live in a research and manufacturing may time when space isn’t science fiction. well unlock breakthroughs many When you read this 30 Voices on once thought impossible. 2030: The Future of Space paper, In your business, the insights you you’ll quickly realise space is a today take from 30 Voices on 2030 will opportunity for business. To work no doubt be different. I hope this in space, to grow food, to conduct paper and the informed, insightful medical research, to mine, to explore predictions it offers, in some small and expand – all this will happen way, influence you to either make or in your lifetime. That’s why you’re accelerate your first steps into the smiling now. business of space. But as your business starts to move If there is one thing we know about from abstract consideration of space business, considered investment and as a market to the mechanics of active engagement with new markets exactly what you might do, there trumps abstract consideration and are a number of considerations and PowerPoint slides. Now is the time to insights you might take into account. explore the business of space. Our 30 Voices offer perspectives. These 30 Voices will help you, and the industry as a whole, challenge thinking on what the future of space business holds. Stand still and you will miss your launch window.

Space Industry Account Lead, Jacob Hacker KPMG Australia KPMG

If we look back ten years, the space However, the environment that will industry was quite different to how result in 2030 is one where space has we see it today. The Space Shuttle was been democratised. Already many still flying, adding the final modules companies use space data every day - to the International Space Station, timing data for payments, positioning Hayabusa was about to return to for logistics, communications for Earth with samples from Itokawa, mining and imaging for agriculture. In and Space X were yet to launch their 2030, all companies will benefit from Falcon 9 rocket. The space sector was the data, insights and services available dominated by large government-led from space, without necessarily owning projects, with the idea of commercial and operating assets. We will know space being little more than a theory. people who have been to space as tourists. People will be on the Moon When considering the space sector developing an extended presence in advancements of the past ten deep space. And the benefits of space years, in particular the volume of to our lives on Earth will be profound commercial activity and investment – whether through the development we are seeing, the intersection of of medical transplants, unlocking the space with our daily lives and the reasons for aging or the management well-funded global programs to go of global warming. further with human exploration, while benefiting our lives on Earth, it is None of this is beyond our reach and inspiring to imagine what we will list there is a role for all to play in the as achievements by 2030. advancement of space – whether you are teachers, lawyers, doctors, trades We have interviewed 30 people people or public servants (to name a with an incredibly diverse range of few), everyone can be involved. perspectives on the space sector and explored how they see it changing in the coming ten years. The articles that follow look at the way barriers to entry will fall away, the evolution of involvement of a wider range of countries and the way new technology will drive new applications. There are challenges we will face along the way, ensuring we can keep space clean of debris, avoiding conflict in space, and helping commercial ventures to be sustainable and thrive.

Agnieszka Lukaszczyk 16 Genevieve Bell 40 Nobu Okada 64

Alice Bunn 18 Inbal Becker-Reshef 42 Pamela Melroy 66

Ariane Cornell 20 James Morhard 44 Peter Beck 68

Carissa Christensen 22 Jan Wörner 46 Rebecca Cowen-Hirsch 70

Chris Boshuizen 24 Jason Crusan 48 Rick Ambrose 72

Christian Davenport 28 Josef Schmid 52 Ruth Pritchard-Kelly 76

Dan Nevius 30 Karen Andrews 54 Salem Humaid Al Marri 78

Dylan Taylor 32 Larry Marshall 56 Steven Freeland 80

Elizabeth Jens 34 Megan Clark 58 Susmita Mohanty 82

Flavia Tata Nardini 36 Nikolai Khlystov 60 Tory Bruno 84

1. Space travel will be a collaborative 3. Zero gravity – new medical 5. You will know an astronaut. multinational venture. conditions and new treatments.

2. Living in space will be easier but 4. Many will experience space – but 6. The human genome will not easy. not all will go. change to support human deep space exploration. Deep space exploration

7. We’ll successfully mine the Moon 9. We’ll operate assets remotely on 11. Virtual companions will assist with for water by 2030. the Moon like mines in the Pilbara. the mental health challenges of long space travel.

8. We may finally discover evidence 10. Growing and eating food in space 12. We will look back in time more of life in space. will be commonplace. than 4 billion years. Space business models

13. Every business will be 15. Long-established terrestrial 1 7. Multinational co-operation, a space business. industries will build a presence while challenging, will drive in space. the peace dividend.

14. The leading space businesses 16. Government will be a customer 18. Manufacturing in space will be of 2030 are start-ups today. of civil space business. real and viable.

Space data comes back to Earth

19. Space data will become 21. AI will be commonplace in space. 23. Governments will conduct their completely commoditised. census from space.

20. An international regulatory body 22. Data will not be owned – 24. Personal privacy will be challenged. for space data will be established. rather shared. Sustainability in space

25. Sustainability in space will benefit 2 7. Space ecology will be imperative 29. Space will be forced to accelerate sustainability on Earth. for our millennial generation. quickly as an operational domain for armed forces.

26. There will be a ‘CFC moment’ 28. Space will get its own 30. A Master’s of Space Ecology will in space which will trigger a legal jurisdiction. be offered at universities. moratorium on space debris.

While space has been the subject of human interest and a quest for discovery for a very long time, today we are at a pivotal point. Many national governments are launching ambitious space strategies. Private-sector players are making major breakthroughs to open the space sector to more people. And other industries – from agriculture to energy and natural resources – are looking at space to improve and transform their own businesses.

But, by the time the dust settles, what will the space industry look like? At KPMG Australia, we believe that space will be communal, commercial and contested. Deliberately, three principles that cannot sit easily together. As the industry opens up and more developments are made, the industry will grow and generate opportunity and risk for all players. Estimates suggest the global space industry could be worth US$600bn by 20301. The fastest area of growth, with a predicted 55 percent compound annual growth rate from 2021 – 2030, will likely be second order impacts. This covers ‘second wave’ or ‘unanticipated growth’ in tangential areas – for example, increased space traffic could create new markets, like congestion planning or debris clean-up. It’s clear that the next ten years offer significant opportunities for those in the space industry – and beyond. To bring to life what our presence in space in 2030 may look like, we spoke to 30 industry leaders – heads of agency, lawyers, surgeons, investors, entrepreneurs, academics and politicians – who painted a very vivid, exciting and challenging vision of what we can expect. Their predictions for the industry align to the five pillars where KPMG Australia envisages significant change in the next ten years: • Humans will live, work and holiday in space; • Deep space exploration; • Space business models; • Space data comes back to Earth; and • Sustainability in space. This paper highlights that the potential of space to open up to new businesses and customers, create new products and services, and speak to our sense of curiosity and desire to understand the world beyond our planet is huge. Organisations across different industries – and not just traditional space industry players – that lack in adaptability and imagination will be left behind.

1 https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investing-in-space

Humans will live, work Deep space exploration and holiday in space

1. Space travel will be a collaborative 7. We’ll successfully mine the Moon for water by 2030. multinational venture. 8. We may finally discover evidence of life in space. 2. Living in space will be easier but not easy. 9. We’ll operate assets remotely on the Moon 3. Zero gravity – new medical conditions like mines in the Pilbara. and new treatments. 10. Growing and eating food in space will 4. Many will experience space – but not all will go. be commonplace. 5. You will know an astronaut. 11. Virtual companions will assist with the mental 6. The human genome will change to support human health challenges of long space travel. deep space exploration. 12. We will look back in time more than 4 billion years.

In 2030 expect society’s interaction with space As space industry technology continues to improve and in particular the Moon to revolutionise. While in the new decade, so will our ability to expand our in recent years we have flirted with the idea of horizons and more deeply explore all aspects of the travelling to the Moon commercially, by the end of solar system, in particular our Moon. the decade we will move ahead in leaps and bounds With a much greater appetite to have permanent with many having completed this ‘once in a life- human residence on the Moon by 2030, there will time’ experience. be a focus on ensuring we are able to use water on In a world where leisurely travel to the Moon is the Moon for fuel and life. Through new extraction viable, expect open discussion of the prospect technology we will be able to separate water into of people permanently residing on its barren the basic constituents of rocket fuel (hydrogen and terrain. While it will be a possibility by the end of oxygen) and support agriculture on the Moon. the decade, the financial, logistical, physical, and Traveling further into space means astronauts will psychological implications will mean it’s still a hard be isolated for extended periods of time. With the task for humans to conquer. assistance of technology, ‘virtual buddies’ will Space travel will still be costly and not accessible ensure that these people will stay in a healthy to all. With technology improving at a rapid speed, mental state while away from Earth. virtual reality will play a large role in giving people New telescope technology will enable us to see the experience of space travel. This will be critical to the first galaxies being formed after the Big Bang, increase interest in space. through projects like the James Webb Space While we will need to identify solutions to challenges Telescope, which will expand our understanding of to enable us to stay in space and on the Moon the solar system. for longer, easier access to space and increased We now have a much better idea of what we are presence in space will enable us to conduct more looking for on other planets for signs of life. Over the medical research in zero gravity. This will provide coming decade, missions to other planets like Mars opportunities to discover new treatments for 2020 with the Perseverance rover and Europa Clipper conditions we thought weren’t possible. Furthermore, to one of Jupiter’s Moons will help determine if we we may start to see the ability to deliberately alter are alone in the universe. the human genome to further support humanity’s sustained exploration of space.

Space business models Space data comes back to Earth

13. Every business will be a space business. 19. Space data will become completely commoditised. 14. The leading space businesses of 2030 are 20. An international regulatory body for space data start-ups today. will be established. 15. Long-established terrestrial industries will build 21. AI will be commonplace in space. a presence in space. 22. Data will not be owned – rather shared. 16. Government will be a customer of civil 23. Governments will conduct their census from space. space business. 24. Personal privacy will be challenged. 1 7. Multinational co-operation, while challenging, will drive the peace dividend. 18. Manufacturing in space will be real and viable.

Already in 2020, many multi-national businesses Data collected in space will continue to increase are investing in the space sector and understanding in value over the next decade as volume, variety, how it can add value to their business on Earth. By velocity and veracity increase. With the increased 2030 we expect all businesses across all industries, use of space data, a central international governing whether related or not, to benefit from space, with body will need to be established, employing new many having dedicated space teams and resources. agile approaches to regulation as new issues appear – but getting there will not be easy. Operations that have long been run on Earth will now take place beyond our planet. Organisations Much of the data collected will be analysed by will be trialling experiments – from medical research edge analytics in-orbit to reduce the volume of data to manufacturing – in space, introducing new that needs to be transmitted to Earth and stored. products and solutions into the market. This may At the same time, in-orbit relays will increase our include growing tissue and artificial transplants in transmission capacity to Earth, providing more zero gravity, as well as manufacturing fibre optics data to input into analytics. AI will also be used in for communication. deep space missions to overcome communications delays due to distance, and help pre-empt and Rather than space programs being purely correct problems. government-led, we will see more and more partnerships between the public and private sectors. We expect that space data will be prolific, though These partnerships will drive new activities and provide little value on its own. Companies will push technological boundaries as we aim to develop find real value in generating and selling actionable new commercial applications from the sector and insights from the data they collect and intersect make new discoveries about the solar system. with other sources. New data will help identify Global levels of cooperation will help enhance and drive new business opportunities across economic and political ties between nation states. different industries. What were considered to be ‘small start-ups’ in Governments by 2030 may conduct their own the space industry in 2020, by 2030 will become census from space rather than by the ten-yearly the leaders of this sector. As space becomes survey we’ve become used to filling out. This will commercially focused, more businesses will realise enable more precise humanitarian and medical the value of space, and new business cases will support in developing countries and enable more become viable. The majority of space companies frequent updates. will be valued in the billions of dollars and operate across multiple countries.

Sustainability in space

25. Sustainability in space will benefit sustainability on Earth. 26. There will be a ‘CFC moment’ in space which will trigger a moratorium on space debris. 2 7. Space ecology will be imperative for our millennial generation. 28. Space will get its own legal jurisdiction. 29. Space will be forced to accelerate quickly as an operational domain for armed forces. 30. A Master’s of Space Ecology will be offered at universities. Business are already putting sustainability at the forefront of what they do on Earth, and in the years ahead the same will be applied to our activities in space. Debris in space has long been an area of concern. This will only escalate as we are more active in space, to the point where international agreements will have to be made to find sustainable solutions. The recovery of decommissioned satellites in space will also involve a strategy to recycle and find a new purpose for them. As access to space is opened up and deep space exploration grows, legislation and treaties governing space will need to evolve. Expect space to become its own legal jurisdiction. Space is already softly militarised, with many countries leveraging it as an operational domain for armed forces. There are however deliberate efforts and treaties to ensure this doesn’t become hard militarisation. With the applications possible in space constantly expanding, treaties and regulations must evolve to ensure it is not exploited. Expect a Master’s degree in Space Ecology to become a viable degree for students wishing to have prosperous careers in the sector.

Credit: Planet

“In 2030, we expect to see the rapid uptake and use of space data by everyday people. Our hope is it will become a regular commodity.”

Agnieszka Lukaszczyk Senior Director for European Affairs, Planet

Agnieszka Lukaszczyk is the Senior Director for European Affairs at Planet, Agnieszka an Earth observation company which images the entirety of the planet each Lukaszczyk day. Prior to joining Planet, Agnieszka worked at the European Commission focusing on space data and policy and was the Brussels Office Director of the Secure World Foundation.

When it comes to Earth observation Firstly, the resolution for commercial and what it means for humanity, we satellite imagery is set at thirty are still figuring out what we can do. “We are only just at centimetres due to regulations not At the end of the day, satellites are because of technology limitations. just a tool. They are not an end, they Satellite image resolution could are simply a means to an end, and the beginning.” be much higher, though it is not we are only just at the beginning. necessary and personal privacy will continue to be important. At the same In 2030, we expect to see the rapid time some actors are concerned about uptake and use of space data by the transparency of open space data, everyday people. Our hope is it will though people are moving away from become a regular commodity where these views. At Planet, we believe in anybody will have access to it, like a transparent and open world, as the the way people currently access the more we know, the better informed we internet on their phones. are and therefore the better decisions However, the key to unlocking the vast we can make. By 2030 we will see potential presented by Earth observation more transparency, with a move away These capabilities will be facilitated from classified data. data will be artificial intelligence (AI). The by the growth of on-board processing combining of these two elements will be of satellite data which means when Secondly, space sustainability is what brings value to the data. the data is downloaded it will be a key issue that will need to be There are so many satellites in space pre-processed, containing only the resolved within the next ten years collecting data, it’s impossible for the essence of the information. – if not sooner. The growth of Earth human eye to find the needle in the observation has seen the rise of Traditionally, when we think of sectors mega constellations and the space haystack. We would need an army of who rely on Earth observation data people to be able to make use of the environment is becoming crowded we think of agriculture, emergency and potentially dangerous. data. That’s why AI is essential. services, government and forestry. With AI we will be able to index the But new frontiers in space data will My hopeful vision for 2030 is that we Earth the way Google has indexed the also bring with it a whole new clientele can harness the true power of Earth internet. We will be able to find, quickly who are not necessarily interested in observation to help us solve global and easily, the answers to a range of the images per say but are interested issues. The next ten years are crucial questions such as how many trees have in answers that the images provide. for addressing climate change and disappeared in the Australian bushfires? As a result, by 2030 Earth observation space will play a vital role in that. In How many people reside in a particular companies will not be reliant on only order to achieve this, our approach country or region? And, how many trees a handful of sectors to survive. towards how we address global in the north east Amazon have been problems needs to shift from one of Two challenges still facing the Earth national protectionism (i.e. ‘America cut between March and April? Space observation industry are the trade-off data will even help us answer the trivial first’ or ‘buy European’) to an ‘Earth of privacy and transparency and the first’ attitude. but still deeply relevant questions. need for space sustainability.

Alice Bunn “What’s surprising is that space isn’t surprising by 2030.”

Teleconferencing will no longer feel Alice Bunn is the International clunky with pixelated images and odd Director at the UK Space Agency time delays, rather it will be like you’re and Vice Chair of the Council of the in the room with your colleagues or European Space Agency, a member clients. We already have a mature of the Board of Directors of the US Space Foundation and co-chairs the telecommunication sector and I predict World Economic Forum Future Global this will persist with the addition of the Council on Space Technology. technology and experiences space will bring. It will narrow the gap between developed and developing countries. Essentially, space will give us the capabilities to provide everyone on the planet access to the basic digital world. The ability to have ubiquitous access to communicate with the digital world will benefit the public good. There’s a legacy viewpoint that space A project in Vietnam (supported by But this all needs cooperation within is something you have as part of the UK through the International Aid the international space community. your national prestige or a vanity Program) predicting the outbreak of I’m optimistic that by 2030, landing on project, but by 2030 I see it normalised mosquito borne diseases was made the Moon will be routine although I’m – a basic commodity rather than possible by using imagery from space. sceptical we will land on Mars by then. a prestigious extra. Everyone will If you can measure surface water But I am hopeful we will be trying. understand the benefits of space. levels, you can correlate water levels I like to compare orbits around the and mosquito population with the Space offers unique vantage points planet to ring roads around major outbreak of disease. A vantage point cities. If you break down in a car, and by 2030, it will be recognised from space over a wide area of water that we use them every day. It’s you’re going to cause a traffic jam but enables the data collection to more ultimately people are going to be able remarkable what we can already accurately make the correlation. And measure from space and by 2030 the to clear the road and continue using it then you start thinking about flood quite swiftly. That’s not true in space. If size and resolution of this imaging will and drought management, and coastal be even better. Mapping the effects you have collisions in space it’s going defences – space can provide that to damage everyone, be it deliberate of climate change from space already unique vantage point. provides huge contributions to our or accidental. Another very important understanding, from sea surface When we think about travel, we think reason for a cooperative community heights, temperatures and more land, sea or air. By 2030 it’s going to in space. recently sea salinity. be land, sea, air, space or cyber with virtual reality taking us to other worlds.

Finally, space is full of phenomena that has relevance to life on Earth. Especially the research into microgravity. Why do astronauts come back from a mission in space with weakened immune systems but after a couple of months their immune systems return back to the normal? If we were able to understand this, we may be able to unlock the secret of how bodies can regenerate. Will space unlock the secret to ageing? Equally fascinating is how bats go into deep hibernation and then instantly fly after coming out of hibernation, so their muscle response is immediate. So, if you think about human exploration in deep space, can we apply the science behind bats and recreate that for humans? If so, then if you go into deep hibernation during travel some of these long-distance explorations could be possible. In 2030, space exploration and travel will no longer be a ‘trophy exercise’ of single nations, but rather what all nations can achieve through collaboration in space will benefit the whole world. Be it communication for all, new ways of mapping and reporting on climate change or maybe, just the possibility of finding a novel way to combat ageing.

Ariane Cornell is the Director of Astronaut and Orbital Sales at Ariane Cornell Blue Origin, a rocket manufacturer and spaceflight services company working towards a future of humans living and working in space. She is also a member of the Board of Directors of The Society of Satellite Professionals International.

Do you think space tourism will be a reality by 2030? I think in the next ten years, suborbital “Reduction in price will be crucial for space space tourism will have hit its stride, by which point the price point will come down. Suborbital space flights will be tourism to take off, but so will proving the available from different locations and from a couple of different companies. system and the experience.” Not only will more people be able to experience space, but I think that suborbital space tourism will also bring space into people’s periphery – not merely as something that is there but as something that is attainable, touchable and can be experienced, and eventually as something that they can use. This will have significant importance, in the same With that said, I’m optimistic that For instance, we might see the growth way that Boeing creating United Airlines even if the price stays high, with more of commercial space companies, which about 100 years ago did. I think it’s going people experiencing space travel and is great, but there will always be an to lay the seed for orbital space tourism seeing how transformative and cool it exchange between the private and in a prolific way. is, market interest will grow. When we public sectors. There will be commercial While I don’t think orbital space tourism look at who our potential customers companies pulling in commercial will be attainable in the next ten years are, there are numerous people who revenue, but I still think that they’ll also for most people beyond high-net worth have the means, but you need to be pursuing government contracts. individuals, we’re going to see more of have the money and the interest. So, As our space capabilities increasingly it as more companies are getting into the reduction of price will be crucial benefit our lives on Earth, we’re going orbital human space flights. for space tourism to really take off, to see more government interest, but proving the system and the and governments doubling down on What do you see as some of the biggest experience will also be key. their own capability. This also means challenges in the coming ten years? doubling down on securing space and What role do you see the government securing access to it. There are two key challenges ahead playing in the sector in 2030? for space tourism. First of all, the companies in the market are going I think that governments have always to have to prove themselves from a and will always play a very important reliability standpoint. Also, I think that role in space – and I don’t see this ultimately for space tourism to really diminishing in either the civil or take off, the price point is going to military side. However, the kind of have to come down. role they play may alter by 2030.

What nations do you think in the next ten years will be the main players in human space flight? I think there will be several players in the international space community continuing to develop human space flight. Definitely the United States will continue to be a strong player and I don’t think Russia is ever going to give up their human space flight capability. The Chinese will also continue their steady pace towards more human space flight. While I don’t see the Europeans launching humans in the near term, they will continue having a strong astronaut corps for others to launch into space. What is a key technological development you think we’ll need in the next ten years to really drive the industry? Reusable rocket technologies will be a game changer in the industry. There was a landmark moment recently where two companies made their landings and subsequently reused their rockets. I think this marked the beginning of changing access to space. The development of reusable rocket technologies would really bring down the costs of space flight, and this in turn, will allow us more access into space. In the next ten years, we’re going to get much better at reusability and this will really change the industry.

Carissa “Success in the Christensen space sector may mean being less identified as a space company.”

What have we achieved in the space market, as is often the case when you sector by 2030? have implemented new capabilities Carissa Christensen is the Chief and seek new customers. By 2030 we’ll Executive Officer and founder of Bryce Existing satellite telecommunication, see satellite imagery fully integrated Space and Technology. Christensen is imaging, and navigation/positioning/ an internationally-recognised expert into financial decision making, policy timing businesses will continue to on the space industry. She serves on decision making and a wide range of grow. There are real opportunities the World Economic Forum Global sectors in the economy. to make global telecommunications Future Council, the Advisory Council infrastructure more robust, including In ten years’ time, what do you think of the Aerospace Corporation’s Centre dynamically switching space and space business will look like? for Space Policy and Strategy, and terrestrial capabilities. For example, the National Research Council Space We’re going to see erosion of ‘space Technology Industry-Government- if you think about fibre optic cables, identity’ by some businesses. For University Roundtable, which advises sabotage stress associated with example, I’m not sure that Planet really NASA. Christensen is a Fellow of the these can make having satellites as wants to be characterised as a space American Institute of Aeronautics and backups useful. business so much as an analytics Astronautics. She is also an active We are also seeing the interesting business, that serves a wider range of investor who serves on several early stage boards. use of small satellites in mega customers. So, success in the space constellations for telecommunications. sector may mean being identified less There are multiple companies as a space company and more as an Do you see venture capital getting currently trying to do this and three entertainment or logistics or financial returns in ten years? front-running companies, including analytics company. The fact the SpaceX and Amazon, both having company’s success is built on space With venture investments in a new different advantages. SpaceX’s assets is interesting but not the most area, there’s a surge of investment system has the advantage being important point. These companies seek and then companies either succeed integrated with a launch capability, to serve market demand, current or or do not. Failure rates are high. Even while Amazon’s system is being anticipated, and space is just a means when many individual companies fail, developed by a company that is in to achieve that. there is generally forward movement every household and has direct access in the sector. I like to point to the dot- We are also going to see more to over 100 million consumers. Both com bubble which was profoundly markets driven by commercial end seek to offer enhanced Telco capability disruptive, with huge inconsequence users and increasingly flexible for end users, though it is not yet to investors and highly-visible business government customers in engaging clear who will triumph and be able to failures. But, if we look around the commercial companies to meet their offer services that are reliable and at a world now, we’re certainly not living in needs. But in 2030 governments compelling price point. a dot-com free universe. E-business has are still going to be very important transformed our world. Satellite imagery and remote sensing customers for space businesses. technologies will really hit their stride. This field has taken a while to find its

So, important assets become a source of tension. This will result both in more focus on national space systems and, because space assets are costly, more interest in opportunities for allied countries to share. We’ll see more collaboration among allies in developing, deploying, and using space systems for national security purposes. On the commercial side, we will see the integration of smaller, niche companies into larger companies. For space activities, the general benefits of network effects, costs of technology development and maintaining systems are factors that push towards larger organisations on an infrastructure level. In ten years, we’re going to continue to see space dominated by larger companies. How do you think we’ll see space applied into our daily lives by 2030? By 2030 probably the biggest So, there’s a difference between The ability to easily leverage alternate transformation coming to our daily outcomes in terms of the performance capabilities from different satellite lives is the integration of AI using data that a given investor sees and the providers across the spectrum will analytics as a routine part of how cities, overall growth of the sector. The money be a compelling value proposition for business, utilities, entertainment going into technology and capabilities many customers. and infrastructure operate, with right now in innovative companies may machines making more and more What do you think collaboration or may not advantage investors today decisions and executing those will look like in 2030? who are supporting those companies. decisions with few humans in the loop. But there’s a high probability that the We’ll see greater use of space Space systems will play a critical part investment will advantage future users for national security purposes. by providing unique data and enabling of the resulting capability. Space capabilities underpin the ubiquitous global connectivity. security of nations, their competitors There has also been disproportionately and their allies. Space is being less investment in ground segment to recognised for its growing military date, which I expect will be filled in the and intelligence importance. coming ten years.

Chris Boshuizen is an Operating Partner at Data Collective VC, an Chris “Space is going investment firm specialising in data-driven science and engineering Boshuizen companies. Chris was also the to go big again.” co-founder of Planet, a company providing global mapping of Earth from space daily. He was previously a Space Mission Architect at NASA Ames Research Center. Chris co- created Phonesat, a spacecraft built out of a regular smart phone that demonstrated that space was within reach of regular people.

What the space industry will look like by 2030 really depends on the development of advanced technologies that we don’t have yet. Will we make technological developments in the areas of materials science, precision navigation and human space flight that will really drive the industry forward toward meeting our goals of venturing into deep space missions and unmanned space exploration? Or will our innovation stall, leaving us in exactly the same place that we are today?

Currently the space industry presents a somewhat even playing field. Advances such as high-quality semiconductors from the cost- conscious mobile phone industry, 3D printing of parts on the ground and access to the spare capacity of large rockets via ridesharing opportunities have allowed more people than ever before to fly things in space – smaller nations, universities, school groups, and even individuals can now take part and space is no longer the domain of a few superpowers. But these advances are widely available, so a lot of the activities people chose to do in space are the same. We mostly build small satellites and vehicles, because this is what the technology affords, but what if a technology comes along that allows us to build bigger things at cheaper prices? Some companies, like Made in Space, are working with new

© 2020 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. 30 Voices on 2030: The Future of Space | 25 technologies like 3D printing things high performance, lower-cost hardware directly in space, which is much harder for building small satellites and small than on the ground, and that may launch vehicles. All of this meant that see a real commercial breakthrough, space projects were cheaper and more allowing us to move from launching affordable for companies without things we’ve built on Earth into space heavy reliance on the government to actually building things in space. anymore. Innovation was a key factor in the past and it will continue to play Another area I believe will change over a significant role. I see the industry the next ten years is our navigation progressing at a steady state until systems, which are quite immature. In another big technological breakthrough Star Wars, droids are so capable they comes along to disrupt it. If something are flying around spaceships. That type really interesting and innovative comes of autonomous control is something along, I think we’ll see an explosion of we couldn’t comprehend on the ideas and investments coming along to International Space Station – we’d really drive the industry. never let a free-flying robot preform an automated task outside! Solving some Because of this even technological But with observational data on Earth of these issues in precision navigation playing field, I see investors in the improving, on a global level there begins with the development of more sector having some losses in the will definitely be security and privacy precise control thrusters, propulsion short-term; there are just too many issues coming up. We’re currently in systems and software systems, and companies trying the same ideas for a transitional phase of our society this will really open the doors to them all to be successful. I’m not too where gathering Earth observation even more innovation in the sector. worried about the investment climate and surveillance data might just Precision navigation and space in the industry in 2030 though as there become part of the fabric of a new assembly go hand-in-hand. If we will be breakthroughs that lead to technological society. But alongside can implement really good precision new ideas. In the ten-year timescale, the benefits of this influx of data will navigation systems, we could more as new tech comes into play, and as be drawbacks, namely in privacy. comfortably assemble large, more the needs of people on Earth change, We’re in the midst of a mini cultural complex structures in space. these companies will get funded and revolution. Will people reject this be successful, and investors will see sort of large-scale data gathering, Space tourism and long-term travel into returns on their investments. sacrificing its benefits for the sake of space is very exciting, but presently our privacy? Or will we learn to accept it is still expensive and frankly quite Finally, the deeper understanding we it and take the benefits that come with inaccessible. SpaceX and Blue Origin have of the data around us through it? Only time will tell. are trying to chip away at this problem, the AI and machine learning tools but there is still an extremely long that are being created will have a way to go. Advancements in human major impact on the space industry. occupied vehicle technologies are These tools help us make sense of not transformational, and I would be the increasing amounts of data we’re very surprised if there are any serious collecting, and space, a new frontier of human space activities by 2030. There data collection, will only benefit from are a lot of other technologies that need these innovations. There’s already a to be developed first before we can lot of Earth observation data being establish safe deep space exploration gathered, we’ve got CubeSats being and commercial space travel. utilised for research purposes out in space, gathering lots of data. Hopefully, I believe in the last decade we’ve been by 2030 we will become much better at riding a wave which was the real start understanding all of this data to help us of commercial space, where people in our goals to better understand space. really started to believe that they could have space companies. This cycle was driven through innovation – from the utilisation of off-the-shelf,

Credit: NASA

“Space travellers will go further and space missions will be deeper and longer with advancements in medicine and technology. The space travel we envisage in 2030 means people, who would previously be ‘disqualified’ as astronauts, will now be fee paying tourists.”

Josef Schmid Flight Surgeon, NASA

Christian Davenport is a staff writer at the Washington Post covering “Space is critical the space and defence industries for the financial desk. Christian is a recipient of the Peabody Award in to the way we live 2010 and was on teams that were finalists for the Pulitzer Prize in 2005, 2010 and 2011. He has also authored and work every two books “The Space Barons: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and the Quest to Colonize the Cosmos” and “As single day.” You Were: To War and Back with the Black Hawk Battalion of the Virginia National Guard.”

The first step is more efficient and Beyond the technical challenges, reliable access. There is a burgeoning there are also political ones. Right commercial space industry that will now, the space program, nicknamed Christian only expand in the coming decade with Artemis, is being pushed by the Trump companies like SpaceX charging less administration. If there is a change Davenport to get more technology up into space in leadership, then the direction while trying to make space exploration may change. Recent history records more sustainable by developing multiple policy changes – the Bush technologies to re-use their rockets. administration pushed a return to the Moon, President Obama focused NASA, under the leadership of the on going to an asteroid and Mars White House, is pushing to return to and most recently President Trump the Moon by 2024. This is a hugely has pursued the Moon then Mars ambitious effort that will require not agenda. New administrations often only a lot of money and support from have different priorities and perhaps the United States Congress (their that’s why the Trump administration is current budget request is US$28.6 moving so fast. What they don’t want billion by fiscal year 2023), but also This year, in the Washington Post, is another program where goals are international partnerships. Just in I predicted a year of, “significant set-out, money is spent and rockets the year ahead we could have NASA, moments in space exploration: NASA are developed to then have the through Boeing and SpaceX, restoring astronauts flying from United States program scrapped. Putting all political human space flight from the United soil for the first time since 2011; biases aside, if the US goes through States. We could also see companies the first paying tourists traveling to with Artemis, I think it’s possible to like Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic the edge of space; rockets sending get humans back on the Moon within begin taking people on space tours. hundreds of satellites into Earth orbit ten years, something we haven’t seen to beam the internet to remote parts But human space flight is tricky, since 1972. of the globe; and the first serious particularly when you are developing By 2030, the number of satellites in steps toward returning a human being new vehicles from scratch. The space will also increase. Satellite to the surface of the Moon.” Commercial Crew Program for NASA technology has developed in the past aimed to put astronauts into orbit by By 2030, I see a self-sustaining decade causing the size and cost of 2017 and Richard Branson has been economy based in space. Space satellites to decrease. Commercial talking about space tourism for years. is critical to the way we live and space companies are putting Despite no flights yet, they appear to work. The blue dot on our phone, constellations of satellites into low- be very close to doing both. Virgin showing us (and others) where we Earth orbit. There’s an estimated three Galactic have now had two successful are, the time code signals that banks to four billion people without access trips to space, Blue Origin has use to synchronise payments and to the internet. This can be solved with launched its suborbital vehicle multiple an avalanche of data waiting to be satellite constellations. SpaceX aims to times and the SpaceX test flight of its analysed and used. put up a few hundred satellites by the Dragon Spacecraft was successful.

end of this year, as are companies like The risk is there’s nobody who has the administration is already talking Amazon. I’m optimistic that by 2030, authority to tell satellite operators about the ‘Space Force’. There are real through space technology we will what to do in space. The US Air Force concerns about how vulnerable assets achieve global internet connectivity. tracks spacecraft and debris and can are in space and other countries have give satellite operators warnings if shown they have the ability to target Large satellite constellations there’s risk of collision, although they them. The Pentagon is committed to facilitating internet access could can’t force companies to move their make sure they have the systems in generate a lot of money if they satellites onto another course. The place to protect their assets. are successful, but it is also risky. Space Safety Coalition has gathered Companies have tried and failed This is a really interesting time to companies together to try to create before. Large scale manufacturing and be a space reporter with the media best practices, so we are seeing launching of satellites is still expensive playing an important role in the sector. some steps to address this issue. and once companies have succeeded The coming years are going to be But this is a protocol rather than a in launch, there are other risks unpredictable and incredibly exciting. law, so adherence to the code will be involved. Space is big but it’s getting The reality is we don’t know what’s another step. more crowded and there are concerns going to happen in the future. In the about operators and their ability to Finally, by 2030 countries will start to end we will just have to wait and see. prevent collisions. think about space as a war domain, like land, air and sea. The Trump

Dan Nevius is the co-founder and CEO of Analytical Space. Founded Dan Nevius in 2016 and based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Analytical Space focuses on addressing how to quickly bring large amounts of remote sensing data down to Earth using a network of data relay satellites.

data to develop new machine learning algorithms. The more training data you “Near real-time data transmission in have, the more applications you can then start to model. What is perhaps an unlikely LEO is going to enable more actionable development, but one you are still hopeful for in the next ten years? applications of space.” As an early member of Planetary Resources, I still have hopes for eventual asteroid or lunar mining. It is energetically expensive to explore the solar system if you have to fight Earth’s gravity all the time. As a precursor to that and along those same lines I am also hoping we’ll see the combination of two really What can we expect for the space In addition, as costs for space-based interesting developments – spin launch sector over the next ten years? platforms continue to come down and in-space manufacturing. Instead of remote sensing startups will be able It will be a pretty exciting decade designing satellites to the constraints to focus on building ideal data sets for space. The industry is gathering of the launch vehicle, if we could for smaller target markets and that a lot of momentum and now has launch bulk building material that can information will be able to arrive to the commercial solutions for many of withstand thousands of Gs and then end user on an actionable timescale. the pieces of basic infrastructure manufacture in orbit it would open up that allow new capabilities to be What role do you see AI playing the design space for new spacecraft developed quickly on top of them. in filtering the data collected concepts and could dramatically Government groups like NASA, from space vs. what is actually reduce costs. It would be a huge leap and even defence agencies, are transmitted to Earth? in how satellites are built and could working more with commercial have ripple effects across the industry. As computational power on these space companies, and start-ups are platforms increases you have the What are some of the challenges the becoming increasingly key to their ability to do edge computing. There space industry still has to overcome? innovation strategies. are applications where that makes a Recently space is being talked about I think the next ten years will be lot of sense, especially ones that have more broadly as a new domain of war, huge for Analytical Space as we can well defined analysis and are not too whereas previously space was seen build the in-orbit communication computationally expensive. However, as a kind of global commons. That infrastructure needed to get better there’s also huge value in trying to could lead to some interesting geo- connectivity for commercial and get down as much data as possible, politics that may actually accelerate governmental remote sensing assets. because you can use it as training space development but it obviously

creates less stability for the space environment when it comes to solving shared issues such as space debris or spectrum management. These affect everyone operating in space. More specific challenges exist depending on the sub industry. A key challenge for remote sensing operators that Analytical Space work with is how we overcome the geographic limitations to connectivity in space. There are only so many places where you can place ground terminals, with 70 percent of the Earth covered by oceans. On top of that, sensitive data can only be downlinked within specific regions due to security concerns. Analytical Space is focusing on creating infrastructure where you can relay data in orbit to specific locations with low latency and high data rates which will enable new applications where the sensor is either very data intensive (like SAR or Hyperspectral) or where the information has an expiration date. What does a space business of the future look like? The biggest change that we are already starting to see play out is that the barriers to developing, launching and operating hardware in orbit will come down significantly. Much of the infrastructure to enable this now exists, which means that companies can now specialise on a specific piece of the value chain and outsource things like satellite manufacturing, launch and communications. As a result, new ideas will be able to be tested at a much faster rate, the pace of innovation will accelerate and space will have an increasing role in our lives on Earth whether it is telecommunication, geointelligence or space tourism. In addition to the explicit space businesses that operate hardware in orbit there will be increasingly more businesses who have space in their supply chain and depend on those in-orbit assets on a daily basis.

Dylan Taylor

“A trillion dollar space economy.”

In the range of ten to 20 years’ time, we are expecting to see a trillion dollar space economy. Now that we have reliable, inexpensive launch, we effectively have built the space elevator which enables many new business models to be viable, particularly those with data and analytics as foundational components.

I see the use of space data and the products and services you can derive from it taking about ten years to fully build out. This is very similar to the internet phenomenon and the time it took to develop. In 2030 we will have a hyperspectral, ubiquitous, always on data collection mechanism through all of the constellations of satellites which are currently being developed.

Dylan Taylor is the Chairman and CEO of Voyager Space Holdings, a privately held global holding company acquiring and operating companies in the space exploration industry. In addition, Dylan is a leading angel investor in the space sector investing in over 50 early-stage companies. He is also former Global President of Colliers International and founder of the global non-profit Space for Humanity.

The convergence of all of the data all as part of the same enterprise, these assets generate, with better you are capable of doing much more cloud infrastructure and the addition valuable missions than just launch for of better AI and machine learning will example. There are bonus points for enable better products and services building capability and building scale. that are predictive and thus hugely We have recently created Voyager value creating. This will have profound Space Holdings to address this impact on Earth. The extensive cell challenge. We plan to build base infrastructure we have today is likely infrastructure and get multiple to be greatly diminished in ten years’ companies to fly in formation in a time, with almost all data transmission way that is more elegant. The Voyager being space-based. model is to have a permanent capital Today we are dependent on space – structure, where we take a majority most of the business plans built in stake in companies, without the need the tech community for the iPhone to constantly raise money and return it are reliant on the GPS constellation. to our investors within five years. The In 2030, the vast majority of our to seek opportunities in space, and we dream is that we can undertake any commerce will be facilitated through have already seen that through the mission that people conceive. With this space-based assets, and this will have excitement that Virgin Galactic’s stock model we can push the envelope of far reaching implications. has generated. Venture is essentially what’s possible, particularly in building growth equity that sits between angel space-based infrastructure. From here, we have a relatively quick capital and traditional private equity path to a multi-trillion dollar space The missions already being and the public market. I believe the economy. The way I think about it is, undertaken in the space sector are role of venture will remain, however we have roughly an US$80 trillion going to result in people living on the the industry will be less reliant on it, global economy. If you have nearly Moon in 2030 and I think that is going while private equity will remain largely perfect, real-time information about to be very powerful. When people look unsuited to the space sector as you are nearly all elements of the Earth, and it up at the Moon and think that there are dealing with an operational challenge is continuously being fed into a cloud actually humans living up there, I think rather than a purely capital one. to process the information in real- that will dramatically shift our world time, you are able to make predictive There are still some challenges in view. It will create inspiration for STEM recommendations. Could you make the achieving that scale. Many companies education in a way we haven’t seen global economy three percent more in the space sector are smaller, since Apollo. efficient as a result? The answer is founder-led companies with highly pretty clearly yes and right there you technical people, but they don’t always have US$2.4 trillion in value creation. know how to build a US$1billion business. Obviously if you have a I see the investment landscape in the launch capability, space craft capability space sector evolving over the next ten and data and analytics capability years as well. Retail investors are going

Elizabeth Jens is a propulsion and systems engineer at the NASA Elizabeth Jens Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), which constructs and operates planetary robotic spacecraft and conducts space missions. She has hardware on NASA’s Mars 2020 rover, Perseverance, due to launch in July 2020.

When I look ahead to 2030, and what The impact of these discoveries on could be the biggest impact of us how we see ourselves and the universe as a species, I believe that there’s a “Deep space more broadly will be very interesting. reasonable chance of us knowing Deep space missions could also if we are alone in the universe and provide us with solutions to challenges discovering the origins of life on Earth. exploration could we face on Earth. Venus, for example, That’s a big statement, I know. But has conditions resulting in an extreme we’re already making huge progress help us discover runaway greenhouse effect. Studying in the deep space exploration field. the planet can help us to understand In July 2020, NASA JPL will launch what, if the worst happens, the our Perseverance Rover mission, the origins of life on future could hold for Earth and, more which will – for the first time since optimistically, what we can do to avoid the Viking missions in 1975 – actively Earth by 2030.” it from happening here. search for life on Mars. And we have Space research on improving life- a much better idea today of what support systems can also have huge we’re looking for than ever before. For value on Earth, from water recycling instance, we know that Mars was a Beyond Mars, there are other missions to CO² removal, or any technology that much warmer and wetter planet, had and areas of space to explore that can facilitate a closed system, where a magnetic field to give protection could make us rethink our place in we use our resources in perpetuity from radiation and could have been the universe. Take Europa Clipper as instead of wasting them. We are a long habitable. We are also enhancing an example, our next mission to the way away from this but if we work exploration capabilities, including Jupiter system and – more specifically towards it, we can make progress taking a helicopter with us. This will – to Europa, one of Jupiter’s Moons. to both preserve our planet but also be a whole new way to explore the Europa is particularly interesting as it enable these longer space missions. planet and may enable us to cover a has an ice shell, and there is evidence much broader area than we have been that there is a salty ocean that could We humans are explorers by nature, able to before with rovers, giving us have enough to heat and energy from whether it’s historically been within more scope for new discoveries. tidal flexing to support life. Life there our own little celestial body or beyond might also be similar to some forms with the Apollo programme. And it’s It will be exciting to see what we learn of life on Earth. And then there’s Titan, this passion to explore and discover from this mission. And the samples one of the moons of Saturn, on which that triggers a lot of commercial that we’re able to take back and study the conditions are near the triple point entities to drive their own space on Earth could give us insights into of methane, just like water here on programs. This passion also makes what constitutes life itself. We may Earth, suggesting that this moon could them commit to the long timeframes discover that life on Mars is similar to support life as well. If this is true, life to develop hardware, overcome that of Earth and perhaps even that life there would likely be very different and technology challenges and embark on on our planet could have originated completely alien to us. the missions themselves. from Mars – and that in fact we’re all fundamentally Martian!

These new players will transform the space sector in the next ten years, pushing boundaries beyond just what we do here on Earth and likely making exploration progress much faster. A major challenge that we must address in the years ahead will be to ensure collaboration and alignment between space agencies globally and the commercial sector, especially as everyone will have different ambitions and priorities. For instance, how do we align our research for finding life on Mars with projects to send humans to the planet, which could impact these discovery missions by introducing life? Planetary protection will be crucial to ensure we don’t record false positives. We will need to work together across companies and countries. If we can maintain the alignment for human exploration between governments and commercial entities, together we can achieve more – and there’s so much that can learn and discover in space in the next ten years.

All opinions expressed here are her own, and do not represent the opinion or policy of NASA, JPL, or Caltech.

Flavia Tata Nardini is the CEO and Co-Founder of Fleet Space “The challenges Technologies, a start-up which aims to transform Earth from Space by connecting the Internet of Things will be enormous around the world using a massive fleet of small low-cost satellites. She is a Board Member of the and the rewards South Australian Entrepreneurship Advisory Board and was previously a available for all Co-Founder and CEO of LaunchBox. humanity.”

This time it will no longer be ability to view, monitor and measure government led but an interactive large areas of the Earth’s surface. If and often interdependent relationship you consider the bushfires in Australia, Flavia Tata between start-ups and businesses. how can you monitor them by just Australia will have an important role looking horizontally? Only in space can Nardini to play in space exploration and you get the real perspective. colonisation with its expertise in In the end, it is about the huge quantity the development and use of remote of data these satellites absorb and asset management. what we do with it. Helping industry I believe getting to Mars is a distinct to be more efficient with water, food, possibility and expect, in the next crops and livestock. Maybe I might be ten years, to see society much more naive or ambitious enough to think the involved in the quest. With these future biggest climate issues can be partly missions being a collective effort more solved from space with the ability to industries will be involved, from energy remotely check and verify that changes corporations to mining companies. It’s are happening and interventions In the next ten years space will open these companies not used so heavily in working. The beauty of it is that this is up in a way never seen before. Mars the past that will enable us to set up a not constrained by infrastructure on seems within our reach and this colony on Mars and I can’t wait to see it. the ground and remote areas are just time it will not be government or Start-ups will be a big part of it as well. as accessible as built up cities. While we can no longer say that SpaceX big industry that gets us there. The With Mars (and the Moon) being is a start-up, perhaps Elon Musk’s challenges will be enormous and the so remote, many of the skills and passion for space was a catalyst for all rewards available for all humanity. technologies we use on Earth will of the NewSpace companies that we are also be needed when we get there. When you look back to the years seeing. So just as in the past it was a Australia, with its internationally leading up to the Apollo mission race to the Moon led by governments, renowned reputation for outstanding – the United States, through their now it will be a start-up race to develop remote asset management, will play space agency NASA, prepared to the right technologies to see us on Mars. complete what was previously an instrumental role in the quest with thought impossible. While getting While Mars will be the forefront of much attention on how Australia uses man on the Moon was a collaborative our aspirations over the next decade, remote management, especially in effort, it was the US government I also see a continual development in mining and agriculture. satellite technology and how we use who had both hands on the throttle However we need to be cognisant them. With nano-satellites already and took the recognition for the of the level of due diligence needed being manufactured, I expect this achievements. Fast-forward 50 years in moving forward with this goal. to be key to our advancements. The and the quest for Mars is going to be On a personal level, visiting Mars satellites we manufacture at Fleet are very different. reminds me of Christopher Columbus all involved in the Internet of Things discovering the Americas. While (IoT). We do IoT from space with the

Columbus’ discovery was amazing, much of what he discovered was exploited for its resources and not properly or sustainably maintained. We need to make an extra effort to ensure this doesn’t occur on a planet like Mars, a planet whose potential we still know little about. One of the things that brings me a lot of confidence came from my experience talking at last year’s panel event, Australia’s race for space. I saw lots of young people interested in space, which is great news for the future. One thing I urge these young people to do is to place a focus on the construction and implementation of new technology in space. If you asked an expert ten years ago what was the best course of action going forward in reaching space, they probably would have said that we need to build better rockets and equipment. I am of the opinion that we are behind where we need to be with software. This is a software driven economy and space will be the same. The other thing holding us back is better battery technology. We are getting so much better with so many things that were just a dream ten years ago but without storable power to drive them, many will be useless in space. I am still confident. If asked about my ultimate dream it would be that the race to space spills over into aviation and in the next ten years I can go to Mars, but more importantly I can go home to Rome in under an hour. Now that would be really cool.

“The private sector will play as prominent a role as government agencies in shaping the future of space exploration and applications for Earth.”

Susmita Mohanty Co-founder and CEO, Earth2Orbit

Dr Genevieve Bell is the Director of the 3A Institute (3Ai) and a Genevieve Bell Distinguished Professor at the Australian National University (ANU) as well as a Vice President and Senior Fellow at Intel Corporation. She is a cultural anthropologist, technologist and futurist best known for her work at the intersection of cultural practice and technology development.

Australia’s place in these stories is a distinctive and complicated one. We have a 60 to 80 thousand year legacy of “We’ve had a long people imagining and transacting with a broad ecosystem of which the stars were no small part of. The indigenous and complicated people of this country understood the movement of the stars, they tracked constellations in space to inform when relationship with they did certain things. There were stories about how the stars came to be and about what those pieces of space space.” meant to them. There’s something interesting about notions of perspective too. That moment when Buzz Aldrin sees the Earth as it’s I find it hard to talk about 2030 rising from a point of view that hadn’t Take an Australian example: we want without putting it in a broader previously been seen by people. His to be able to protect the canyon in context. For me, one of the most description of this is beautiful, and which the Wollemi pine live from interesting things about space is not it’s a beautiful set of images that are bushfire. How would you balance the place it occupies literally, but the captured, and it represents a very literal the tension between wanting to be place it occupies in our imaginations. perspective shift. There is something able to find fires and fight them, Our imaginings of space travel are fascinating about what a different point along with wanting to be able to hardly new stories; in my doctoral of view can give you. Once you can protect a prehistoric plant that exists research, I came across a lovely essay see everything from space, what does in one place only, whose location written more than 100 years ago by that mean? The capacity of low orbit has been kept secret for more than a Native American boarding school satellites to see back to Earth, and the 15 years? Because you know that student who wrote about going to granularity of what they can see is if you disclose it, it would make it the Moon. It’s interesting to think very different than what we have seen vulnerable. There is a balance about about why the idea of propelling our previously. 20 years ago, you could what it means to be seen and who bodies into space has been such a see a backyard square, by now you’re gets to be unseen, and what is preoccupation of the Western science down to what is on the phone screen in necessary to keep things secret. fiction narrative for so long. What is your hand. Then there is more sensor My suspicion is that, by 2030, there it about the idea of space that is so technology overlaying that, and the will have been some emergent perennially seductive? What is the role possibilities are quite extraordinary. moments where we start to ask the of space in our imaginations? Is it a It used to be that if someone was question of what systems do we need safety valve, the notion that we get to taking your picture, you knew it was to manage this? People are not often reset and try again? Is it somewhere happening. Now there’s a whole series good at speculating who will be the where we won’t have all the same of objects that can sense you, and it non-traditional users of technology, complications, a blank space that we is not knowable to you. So there’ll be and what other uses they might put it can fill with new stories? issues about sensor technology, about to that wouldn’t have been imagined. data, data provenance, where that Even as we start to imagine what space will be like in 2030, we are living in data is being stored and under what times that previous generations already circumstances, how long it’s stored imagined for us. We are in a moment in for, who gets access to it. time where a whole lot of the science On one hand, there will be arguments fiction we grew up with is ‘now’—Blade that say this technology will allow us Runner was set in Los Angeles in to sense fire breakouts in real time and November 2019 and we’re well past The target resources; we’re going to be able Terminator’s Judgment Day. Space is a to track trafficked goods and manage destination that has been predetermined this; we’re going to be able to look at for us, and how we think about the wildlife that’s endangered and manage future is profoundly coloured by a whole its perimeters. But this same technology series of stories we’ve already told. creates points of vulnerability.

This uptake and routine integration of satellite information across the Dr Inbal Becker-Reshef is the Program agricultural sector will help inform Director of NASA Harvest, NASA’s Inbal Becker- decisions that enable our food Applied Sciences Food Security and Agriculture Program. Inbal’s work production systems to meet increasing Reshef is focused on the application of food and caloric demand sustainably, satellite information for agricultural even in the face of a changing climate monitoring from the field to global and scarce resources. scales, supporting decisions in food In many ways we are already starting security and agricultural markets. She is Program Scientist at the GEOGLAM to see the impact of these technological Secretariat and a Co-Director of advances and open data sharing the Centre for Global Agricultural developments. Take programs such Monitoring Research at UMD. as Copernicus, or the proliferation of small satellite constellations. These are already successfully disrupting the way in which satellite data is being NASA Harvest is truly a demonstration used. Where 250m spatial resolution of public, private and research data was the standard for global collaboration – a nexus that many monitoring just six years ago, today “Data driven, find hard to bridge. The consortium the European Copernicus program is of partners is improving the use of providing free and open 10m resolution satellite data to address food security imagery globally every 2-5 days, and precision and agriculture problems globally, from small-sat constellations are providing small-holder farmers to large corporates. inexpensive daily imagery at 3-5m resolution. With these new capabilities, agriculture for So, what does 2030 look like? we are moving towards monitoring 2030 is simply not that far away. our dynamic planet on a daily basis at the scale of individual fields or a food secure If you consider how rapidly satellite- paddocks. This is a clear demonstration driven agricultural monitoring has of a paradigm shift towards open data Earth.” evolved over the last ten years, picturing policies and more accessible data it in ten more years is a continuation from both government and privately and acceleration of this revolution. owned constellations and infrastructure We are likely to see increased In 2030 we will see much more serving industry and the public alike. This has allowed faster innovation frequency of extreme weather widespread and diverse adoption of events, and we need to make sure satellite data and products across the and an ability to meet the needs of agricultural end users more quickly. there is enough food for everybody agricultural sector for driving real time while managing our land use decision-making, whether for guiding To continue to feed this advance, it sustainably. Why is it so important policies, informing trade, producing is important that by 2030 we have that decision-making capabilities agricultural statistics, implementing widely adopted open data policies are enabled for agriculture? sustainability commitments, mitigating for high quality, high volume Earth impending food shortages, advancing observation with high spatial and The forecasts are well known: we precision agriculture, or providing temporal resolution. But even more so, need to produce nearly 50 percent farmers financial services. I anticipate we will need to ensure that we have more food by 2050 to feed nearly ten a greater flow from ‘research’ into the readily accessible infrastructure billion people, yet we are already ‘operations’. This will be enabled and platforms to process this data to at near 100 percent agriculturally by the trend towards free and open deliver actionable information across suitable land-use capacity. We will data sharing, increased data quality, the sector. To do so, we will need to continue to experience extreme higher spatial resolution, and faster take advantage of the growth in cloud weather conditions, and extreme revisit time of satellite observations computing, machine learning and events will become more frequent. combined with advances in machine artificial intelligence; and will likely We will need innovation to be able learning and cloud computing need to rely on expanded industry to feed the world sustainably. In the alongside large investments by the investments to enable this. next decade, I foresee that Earth public and private sectors. observation data and the associated information services will help increase

© 2020 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. 30 Voices on 2030: The Future of Space | 43 the productivity of existing agricultural NASA Harvest is an experimental systems, while simultaneously reducing program that is trying to work in agriculture’s environmental impact. this private, public and end user nexus, investigating and developing For example, precision agriculture collaborations between the three is increasingly using satellite data groups to increase the chances for to improve fertiliser use, help adoption and traction. manage water resources and enable sustainable crop intensification. Secondly, and perhaps most Additionally, commercial start-ups importantly, in this ‘big-data’ era we have been able to develop interfaces cannot benefit from the increased and platforms to process this satellite- quality and quantity of Earth sourced data and provide services observations without high quality used by farmers, straight into their and accessible ground data, which is tractors and machinery. critical for developing and validating satellite products such as crop type Monitoring agriculture across space maps and crop yield estimates. This is and time using Earth observation an area where private, public and end satellites allows us to measure the user collaboration could have impact of decisions and policies— the most impact. for example, we can measure the adoption rate of conservation As satellite data and tools become practices, or impact of policies on more accessible to a wide range of cropping intensification or expansion. users (rather than limited to remote sensing experts and researchers), it In 2030, decision-making capabilities will be critical to develop standards We are starting to see regulation, such driven by accessible, timely, and open and mechanisms to ensure the quality as the Common Agriculture Policy data and derived insights are going of the products and insights derived in Europe, requiring the use of Earth to be key to feeding the world and from satellite data. In addition, as observation data to monitor and the continued agricultural revolution new satellites are launched it will be ensure compliance. I expect this type – across both small and large scale important to ensure interoperability of uptake of satellite data to continue farming operations. across data streams. The benefits of and expand to other countries in the What is holding us back? What are interoperability are already being next ten years. the challenges? demonstrated: for example, Sentinel-2 We are starting this decade amidst and Landsat data have been combined Firstly, while Earth observation data a revolution in Earth observation to enable interoperable use, and we is increasing rapidly, to be able to get capabilities as well as analytic and need to facilitate more of this data to a desired future state we are going computational capabilities, which harmonisation. to need to better collaborate across holds great promise for realising the the public and private space and If we can address these challenges benefits of satellite Earth observation technology sectors and to ensure close we will be able to unlock the huge data for agriculture and food security stakeholder engagement. potential that Earth observation in the next ten years. data offers to inform local to global We have seen a huge amount of decisions on policy development and innovation come out of the private fiscal decision making, and enhance sector which has helped spur the market transparency in support of revolution in agricultural monitoring. agriculture and food security. For Both government-funded and private example, in Uganda, NASA Harvest’s sector research are developing high work with the Office of the Prime quality data capture mechanisms Minister has been able to develop and analytics, providing insights alerts for in-season crop stress from faster than traditional approaches. To drought that trigger the release of continue to cultivate the agricultural government funding to proactively revolution, we will need to find useful, mitigate the impacts on food security productive pathways to operationalise and consumption in the long-term, these innovations in a way that is rather than post-fact. useful to end-users.

James “As a species, we’re Morhard explorers. It’s in our DNA.”

What do you think we will have achieved in the space sector by 2030? James Morhard is the 14th Deputy Administrator of NASA. He This is a pivotal time for NASA. I look helps provide overall leadership, at this as one campaign with three planning and policy direction and domains: first, our focus over the next is also responsible for articulating ten years is to expand the economy in and representing NASA’s vision. low-Earth orbit, getting to the Moon Prior to his tenure with NASA, and staying there sustainably to learn Morhard was the U.S. Senate so that we can hopefully land on Mars Deputy Sergeant at Arms. in the 2030s. Second, the United States aims to get the first woman and next man on the Moon by 2024. This time, it’s more than flags and footprints. We are going sustainably, not just to go there, but to stay there for longer. By doing so, we can build our understanding on what What are some of today’s challenges Another challenge we’re facing is we need to get into deep space; our you see us solving in the next decade? safety and logistics. I’m not worried about our astronauts performing third domain. We haven’t built a human landing what they’ve been trained to do. But I system like that of Apollo in over 50 On Earth, we are limited by the “rocket need to make sure that I can get them years and we’re currently reviewing equation.” As the payload weight there safely and keep them alive when the options on how best to approach increases, so does the amount of in deep space with the challenge of it. Those who worked on the Apollo propellant you need. This is the same radiation, food supplies, blood flow, program aren’t with us anymore. So, on the Moon, but due to the Moon and bone and muscle degradation. we’ve got to reinvent a lot of what has only having 1/6 of Earth’s gravity, it’s Humans are the most fragile element been done. a lot easier to launch from there. So, of space exploration, and safety is if we are physically and economically To get to the Moon, we have the Space such a key factor to think about. This able to mine the water ice on the Launch System (SLS) rocket, the Orion will all have to be solved for us to Moon and convert it into hydrogen to capsule and the ground systems. But achieve our space ambitions. fuel rockets, then we can go further the challenge now is to create the What do you see the role of into deep space. If we are able to Lunar Gateway – a command post government in space being in ten achieve this endeavour, it will decrease that will orbit the Moon and could be years’ time? the cost of space exploration. a transfer point to get to the Moon, as well as a point to get to deep space. For the US, we can’t do this without commercial and international partnerships, they play a huge role. As our discretionary spending is

Jan Wörner “Travelling forward. Fascination, inspiration and motivation.”

As a young man, I dreamt of being communication means are affected, an astronaut. Astronauts are the eyes Dr Jan Wörner is the Director including a cyber-attack. and ears of space. Long before Life General of the European Space As we look to the future we will see Magazine published the famous photo Agency (ESA). Prior to starting his role in 2015, he was a civil engineer, more and more private ownership and by Bill Anders of the fragile blue and university professor and president access with small fleets of company white planet, the three men of the of Technische Universität Darmstadt. focused – commercial satellites. In Apollo 8 crew had already experienced He also served as chairman of the telecommunication it is even more it. Anders described the moment as, executive board of the German commercially focused. Navigation is “in a darkened room with only one Aerospace Centre DLR. more difficult. There is the general use visible object, a small blue-green of navigation and with this comes the sphere about the size of a Christmas- need for security. In the next 30 years tree ornament.” I am not an astronaut, what remains with the public agencies but my dream of space lives with me will be science exploration and all every day. safety and security aspects. The rest As I look towards 2030, my first will become commercial. thought is, ten years is not really Agencies like ESA are looking towards enough time to imagine or predict Science is mandatory for every member collaboration with industry. where we will be in space. Most of ESA – everyone participates. A customer, buying services like space programs’ time frame is far greater Exploration is optional. Science looks at debris removal. A broker, a long way than this including ESA programs. the stars and other phenomena far away from our origins, bringing different from the Earth. Exploration is closer to actors together in a common activity. So where do I think we will be? In home, it brings us to low Earth orbit, the this matter, my opinion differs from Moon and Mars. One question I am asked is, how do others and is best explained through we convey the benefits of space? ESA’s four pillar narrative. The record The next is, Applications, Earth budget voted last November at the Observation, Telecommunications Space is an infrastructure. Many see Space 19+ Council in Seville will and Satellite Navigation. this as boring, just roads and bridges. allow breakthrough discoveries about But personally I see infrastructure The third is Enabling and Support. as integral to everyday life. Just the Earth, our Solar System and the This is where we create and develop whole Universe, while making the as we need space, for weather new technologies and run space prediction, navigation, climate change responsible choice to strengthen the transportation. efforts to safeguard our planet and its assessment and telecommunications. immediate space environment. The fourth is a new one: Safety and But it is also an enabler – beyond just Security. It deals with space hazards technical solutions. The first pillar is Science and such as solar flares, space debris Exploration. To make it easier to see these I and asteroids and also with Earthly developed three ‘destinations of disasters such as Earthquakes, floods, space’ in no particular order; society, hurricanes, etc. or any disaster where economy and environment.

Space influences society. The Apollo The mean answer was €287 per year the universe. Their observations and missions fascinated the world. Space is per person. Interestingly our ‘ask’ for emotion helps people understand. captivating especially the science and Space19+ was only €8 per person. So The final is to mitigate; this is what we the exploration missions. Fascination we definitely have potential. must do now. The technology of solar is a positive emotion that leads to From space we can observe, of course, cells, a provider of clean energy, was inspiration and motivation. This was but we can also take action. We can first developed for space. Navigation my story – inspired by space – a civil be strong player in the fight against from space satellites allows us to engineer building dreams in structures climate change. Climate change is an go the shortest, the fastest and now – something better for our society. example of thinking about something the greenest routes from A to B. Space benefits the economy. rather than just ‘doing it’. We first Space could see aircraft congestion Developing industry, this is part of had to discover there was climate reduced with more efficient routes ESA’s convention, developing European change. And we found it not on Earth and queuing to reduce emissions and industry and making it competitive on but on Venus where we observed a space will help aircraft fly at altitudes the global market. Competitiveness is greenhouse effect. So we thought, that minimise contrails and their the answer to the destination economy. “could this also be happening on impacts on the climate. Earth?” Discovery is number one. The third is environment, the surface Space is also a geopolitical equaliser. of the Earth including climate change Monitoring is next. We monitor some 26 As we aspire again to the Moon I dream and all around it. Missions have parameters, climate variables, to allow of a ‘Moon Village’. A village is a place responsibility to the Earth and the us to see what is really happening. where different actors come together space around the Earth. to create something bigger. I’m not The next is to raise awareness. The thinking of colonising the Moon, These three are the value of space. data is there, but you have to explain because to live together in a tin can on it, so politicians and the general public To look at it another way, we asked the a dusty planet should not be the future really understand. Astronauts can do European people what they thought for anyone. Aspiring to leave this planet this – they can express their feelings they would like to contribute to space. and live on another is a poor excuse for for this shiny planet in the darkness of not taking care of Earth.

Jason Crusan

“Forward to the Moon – an opportunity for all.”

Over the past decade, organisations have focused on commercial space flights to the edge of space, low Earth orbit, to the Moon and beyond. Upon reflection, it has been a lot tougher than expected and has taken more time than everyone thought it would. With continual improvements in technology and an increased societal desire to share the story of space from their electrolysis provides oxygen to reach space, it is my view that by the diverse perspectives and in so doing, breathe, a propellant to travel and end of the decade, people can look foster further exploration and care of in its original form, water to sustain forward to regular flights to the edge of our home planet. life. Interestingly, that is the same space, commercial space stations, the technology we use for hydrogen complete transition to small satellites Right now, how we fuel our travel production on Earth and so I see so providing a wide array of new services, and even life in space presents an many technical overlaps between and the Moon’s surface being explored interesting challenge. By way of the roadmaps we see in space and from every angle. Interestingly too, example, we will need hydration to those related to the energy transition it will not just be “state sponsored live and propellant to travel. If we on Earth. The consequence of this is astronauts” who have ventured into solve the problem of transporting that space travel and the technology space and onto the Moon, it will be water into space by releasing the to enable living on the Moon have a high-net-worth individuals, artists, stores on the Moon - we will have a benefit for all. engineers and storytellers who will solution to both. Splitting hydrogen and oxygen molecules through

Jason Crusan is the Vice President of Technology at Woodside Energy. With over 20 years’ experience in the space industry and as a former director at NASA, Jason is passionate about the opportunities that space provides for a sustainable future.

In the past, space was extraordinarily A mission to Mars is a bit of a fantasy expensive. GEO satellites were built unless we know how to harvest ‘not to fail’ with large amounts of resources to get to and from Mars money spent on redundancy that along the way. I have always been a created a vicious circle of increasing big supporter of using the Moon to costs. Now the standardisation of get to Mars. I believe that we will use CubeSats and small satellites, for resources from the Moon to actually example (originally designed and get to Mars. If you only want to repeat built for research), we are seeing this the past and just go to the Moon, you industry sector transforming. Satellite would not put any infrastructure on costs have dropped to fractions of the or around the Moon, you’ll just go original price and so too has the risk to the surface of the Moon and bring coefficient. CubeSats have evolved to everything with you for each trip. If mega constellations of small satellites you want go to the Moon and have supporting Earth observations and/ the sustained ability to go somewhere or communications promoting else as well, you will put in orbital more and more investment, further depots around the Moon and surface driving down the cost of space. It is the people who already do remote infrastructure in place to enable the the organisations associated with autonomous operations. At Woodside, staging of propellants and the space these types of technology that will we are advancing our remote ships that will take us beyond the influence more of what we do in operations and autonomy for Earth Earth-Moon. The robotic probes that we space - challenging more than we capabilities. We have every belief that have already sent to Mars are telling us ever thought possible. It is this realm this can be leveraged into space. a lot about the Mars environment and of possibility that has now created a While there are some companies the history of potential life. Perhaps by global and robust space industry. that are purely space orientated, 2030 we will know. Australia’s space industry is only all companies will see space as in its infancy. This is an economic a medium to acquire data and advantage to Australian industries facilitate communication. New - we have a diverse set of industry collaborations are starting to form, players whose research, development for example in agriculture planning, and technology investments are if you do not have a space acquired complementary to those of the space data set or hyper-spectral imagery, industry. So instead of founding a new you are missing a major data space robotics autonomous remote segment to advance your business. operations company, Woodside has As such, we will see agricultural helped establish the Australian Remote companies merging and partnering Operations for Space and Earth with companies that have space (AROSE) consortium – consisting of capabilities and thereby improving farming methods and production.

Dylan Taylor Chairman and CEO, Voyager Space Holdings

Dr Josef Schmid is a Flight Surgeon at NASA and a Major General in the United States Air Force Reserves. He is the former lead for Space Medicine Training, Josef Schmid responsible for training medical students, other flight surgeons, astronaut crew medical officers and biomedical engineers. He is also the former Lead for the Electronic Medical Record system. He has been a crew surgeon for shuttle missions STS-116, STS-120 and for the long duration missions to the International Space Station. He became an aquanaut during a 12 day mission to NOAA’s undersea Aquarius habitat. Dr Schmid is also the Co-director for the Aerospace Medicine Residency at the University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston.

Space travel is no mean feat. It takes which occur regularly. Other ‘dust’ tremendous energy to hurtle your body is sharp and if this gets into your through space at 17,500 miles per hour “The sky is no lungs or eyes it could cause damage. and then you need to dissipate this It’s hard to defend yourself against energy when you return. How do you do those. If it hits your spacesuit, how that safely? longer the limit.” are you going to repair it instantly? And then there’s radiation. On Earth, By 2030, many more people will want to we’re protected by the Van Allen belt and be able to fly on sub-orbital, orbital and also by our own atmosphere. On and maybe even lunar orbital flights. the Moon, there are no protections. They may even land on the Moon. We will have to find a way to defend ‘Astronauts’ will no longer be the young, against not only background radiation, fit and healthy; rather older people, and but also the constant risk of coronal even people with medical conditions mass ejection or other events from will be flying in zero gravity. Space deep space which may deliver a more travellers will go further and space lethal exposure. missions will be deeper and longer I believe there are four steps to with advancements in medicine and Treatments for medical conditions mitigate these risks. technology enabling these people to fly. that accelerate in space may also lead The space travel we envisage in 2030 us towards prevention and a cure for First of all, prevention – identifying means people, who would previously be these diseases. Astronauts can lose one potential risks early on and keeping ‘disqualified’ as astronauts, will now be percent of their bone per month when everyone who is going to fly healthy. fee paying tourists. they don’t exercise, and when they do Next, we need to prepare for what exercise the bone may position itself in a we cannot prevent. AI and other The increase in space travel will new manner into the cortex of the bone. technologies will play a key part open up unbelievable benefits This may be similar to the impact of here, looking at past medical issues and opportunities. when people are bed ridden, and elderly in orbit and on land, augmenting our people who are at risk of fractures. So Zero gravity is actually a good analogue ability to recognise potential medical understanding and treating this will not for how the body develops. In the issues through diagnosis, testing and only have a benefit for space travellers womb, the foetus is in zero gravity and it potentially assisting with treatment. but terrestrial benefits as well. is here that the heart, lungs and kidneys We also need to empower and support develop. Understanding how the cells Presuming you have avoided colliding our astronauts, equipping them with come together to form tissues and how with space debris you have now landed the skills and knowledge to be able the tissues form structures and then on the Moon, what do you need to do to to make quick decisions and act fast how they interact with other organs in keep healthy? when issues arise. the body all happens in zero gravity. This introduces the possibility – and potential The Moon is dusty, not dusty like opportunity – of growth of new organs your home, but rather Moon dust is and the repair of others in space. produced from micrometeoral hits,

The opportunities for cooperation and peace are absolutely paramount and that’s what got me excited way back when I saw the Apollo Soyuz. As long as we cooperate on an international level, we’ll have more chance for peace and the human race will advance.

And finally, when packing for a trip, AI Think of how much we communicate can help us prepare, analysing from past through touch and smell. How we missions and from reams of available deal with mental health will be vital. health data informing what we need In the absence of a physical counsellor, and what can be used for multiple AI may have a role. Changes in purposes, from IV fluids to surgical behaviour can be picked up by AI with tools that can also be used to repair the potential of developing appropriate broken equipment. This is the exciting and effective support. part, using what we know from the past through the use of technology to find When it comes to the future of space, new solutions. the sky is no longer the limit. I’m excited about what the next ten years Finally, psychosocial support is will bring – and with the medical something that is overlooked, but it is progress we make in space, we will an important issue. We send people to see tangible benefits on Earth. To extreme environments in dangerous and make it successful, we need to ensure isolated locations. Space can be lonely The views expressed are those of the author cooperation between all players. and communication often difficult. and do not reflect the official policy or position of NASA, the US Air Force or the US Government.

Karen Andrews

The benefits are real and tangible The Hon. Karen Andrews MP is – whether it’s helping our farmers the Minister for Industry, Science manage their crops, better mapping and Technology in the Australian “One of the great bushfires or getting our ride share to Government, a role that she’s had pick us up from the right spot. since August 2018. She represents the Division of McPherson in Queensland challenges is By 2030 it will not just be space and is a member of the Liberal businesses but the businesses that National Party. bringing the support those space businesses that will grow. Gilmour Technologies, a rocket company in Queensland, has community with us over 300 local small and medium sized businesses that form part of their supply chain making their space on the journey.” projects come to life. It’s these flow-on effects that make space such an exciting industry Moving towards 2030, Australians presenting incredible opportunities proposition that will continue to grow have plenty to look forward to with a for Australian people and business. the Australian economy. rapidly growing space industry. In the For example, satellite positioning words of our Prime Minister, The Hon. technology and the work to improve The space sector is no longer just Scott Morrison MP, “space captures the accuracy of positioning services the domain of governments, it’s a the imagination and inspires us all. from metres to centimetres is very fast-growing and fiercely commercial It develops new technologies that exciting, benefitting developments sector, driven by the falling costs improve life on Earth, offering huge in autonomous vehicles and making of launch and rapid technology economic and job opportunities.” These them closer to reality. development. opportunities are only going to continue One of the great challenges is Engagement between the public to grow. Australians will be surprised bringing the community with us on and private sectors is central to the by the variety of people and businesses the journey. Space is awe-inspiring space sector thriving in Australia. who will benefit from this emerging but we need to make sure every day The Australian Space Agency is ecosystem, with the sector tripled in Australians can see themselves as designed to be the welcome mat for size to AU$12 billion a year with job part of the story. We need people to international partners who want to opportunities for 30,000 people. know job opportunities are not just engage with our businesses. for astrophysicists and engineers but Space is already a big part of our One of the Australian Space Agency’s also for our tradies, from electricians day to day lives, with the integration key roles is to open up a dialogue to boiler-makers. becoming more pronounced. The with Australian businesses and evolution of technologies from universities. Their headquarters at Lot space are growing at a rapid rate,

Fourteen in Adelaide allows Agency industry to tap into global markets. working on the biggest missions in staff to walk around and engage with Our most recent agreements are with the world. And I am confident it will industry partners also based there, the likes of NASA, Germany and the also help Australians see the endless like the Smartsat CRC and Myriota. European Space Agency. possibilities of careers in space – and inspire our younger generation to In order to continue growth in the In closing, Australians have much to pursue STEM studies. industry, the Australian Government look forward to looking towards 2030. is investing AU$150 million into Continual investment in the space I look forward to the exciting months Australian business to help them be industry is helping us make better and years ahead – as the Australian part of NASA’s return to the Moon and business decisions, improve our Space Agency takes shape and becomes then on to Mars. productivity, open up our markets, a permanent part of our economy. create new jobs, and build our skills. Our AU$15 million International It is literally revolutionising how we Space Investment (ISI) initiative will do business and how we live. also back strategic space projects that build relationships with international For the first time in Australia’s space agencies for the benefit of the history, we will have a national Australian space industry. space agency that will co-ordinate all these activities, and bring Australia’s In addition to supporting the businesses to the world. The Agency transformation of our space industry will showcase our incredible into new supply chains, more talents. It will open the door for international agreements are being our businesses to create jobs by signed to open doors for Australian

Larry Marshall

including through artificial intelligence and advanced analytics will continue to push transformation. New frontiers of the space industry will validation and data analytics, provision open up, including space-based tourism, and management of world-class space energy, manufacturing, asteroid mining, “New frontiers of tracking facilities and space situational deep space missions and living ‘off awareness activities to leverage and world’ in closed-loop systems. Australia underpin our natural advantages. as an established supplier of R&D to the space industry Over the next decade, the space value international space agencies will be chain will broaden, covering upstream embedded in the NASA Artemis mission will open up.” activities which focus on ground to the Moon. systems, launch and operating objects Data derived from space will provide a in space, together with downstream unique view not available from other activities that utilise space data and sources. Australia will be operating technologies across a range satellites as national research facilities to of applications. inform our Earth observation monitoring Innovation at the downstream end of and management practices. the space value chain will lead to an Innovative space technologies, services expansion of the applications for space and business models will be game- Australia’s geographic location in derived data and services, creating changing for the space industry, but also the southern hemisphere has always new businesses, new industries and transformative to on-Earth industries been attractive for space related new ways to solve grand challenges. through diffusion of innovations into activities. Profound transformation We’ll see breakthrough solutions everyday life. Completely new disruptive of space technologies alongside in areas like precision agriculture, industries will be enabled, such as ‘data increasing demand for space-based environmental management from mining’ industries that derive value from services will drive the emergence of forests to reefs, mining, and many space data. a new space age, and with it, many other sectors. new opportunities for the growth of The deluge of data is amplified by Australia’s own space sector. ‘Space 2.0’ will continue to change the space, almost beyond our ability to industry, based on the introduction of cope – at CSIRO alone we already Our country’s attributes of large land miniaturised, low cost technologies, receive more data from space than mass, low light and electromagnetic and more sustainable and reusable the global internet generates! And interference will be capitalised on, with systems, with improved power globally, the daily volume of data integration into global value chains. and propulsion on the horizon. generated will continue to increase, By 2030, Australia will be developing Convergence with advances in high- driven by increased sensorisation positioning services and technology, performance computing, materials, and digitalisation across industries, Earth observation calibration, robotics, and increased data exchange, governments and households.

I’m looking forward to more Australian To fully exploit the value of space Dr Larry Marshall is a scientist, lives benefiting from technologies technology, the industry must be technology innovator, business developed for space missions. I connected with all established leader and the Chief Executive of remember when we got excited Australian industry sectors. A the Commonwealth Scientific and about food and drink products dedicated forum focused on Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia’s National Science that astronauts ate and drank, but translation of these technologies into Agency and innovation catalyst. amplify that into more life-changing other industries could help fast-track Prior to joining CSIRO in 2015, he technologies that tackle environmental, international collaborations and was the Managing Director and industrial and energy challenges. technology and knowledge transfer Founder of a number of companies in both into and out of space programs. Australia has grown industries from biotechnology, telecommunications, semiconductors and venture capital. our natural resources, like agriculture For example, the impetus for deep space and manufacturing, which will be missions to make equipment smaller, critical to developing solutions from lighter and more robust is particularly the resources we find on other planets. useful for the mining industry. The new materials we create to solve Alongside commercial market problems in space could in turn help development, judicious government So artificial intelligence will need us transform commodity markets procurement of locally developed to step up and help us turn that based on raw materials into unique space innovations will encourage and deluge from commodity or worse, and higher margin, value-added help build Australia’s space industry waste – into genuine insights and products for national export. and help to maintain a critical mass of actionable decisions. To grow the national space industry, capabilities in the country. Data exchange and associated Australia must take advantage of its For example, continued open big data analytics will be creating natural advantages and strengths, and government repositories for data are significant value across industries. align them with industry trends. To critical for development of value- When used intelligently, the larger fully exploit these advantages requires adding space-derived services. variety, access speed, and volumes investment in key foundational enablers, of data from space-based platforms including infrastructure, business Australia has many strengths to will allow for more informed decision- ecosystems and R&D capabilities. leverage as we grow our national making and increased productivity. space industry – we bat above our The success of our space industry This will require a step-change in data weight in scientific and technological will depend on our ability to inspire analysis techniques including artificial expertise, and we have many natural and to demonstrate the connection intelligence, machine learning and on- assets in our landscape. But space is a between the space economy, its board processing. global industry and Australia is a new impact on the lives of Australians and and small player, so to engage and National research agencies like the competitiveness of the nation’s ultimately compete we must grow our CSIRO will continue to lead the industries. Growth of Australian space international network by strengthening technical research sector and operate ventures will see more opportunities existing partnerships and forging new our national research facilities. We to both spin in leading Australian ones based on common interests, will continue with the ‘deep tech’ technologies and capabilities, and to shared values, and reciprocal benefit. research that is too expensive for spin out space derived technologies small companies, and work with SMEs into everyday life. I am confident we have exciting and who will take the products of our unique expertise to offer the world, but Growing our nation’s space industry research to market here and overseas we must always make sure Australia requires an innovative culture and and support the commercialisation benefits along the way. ambition to challenge and inspire our pathway of the research including future generations. There is a risk that we try to boil the spin-outs from CSIRO. ocean – forgetting how small we CSIRO is an integral link between Our 2030 integrated end-to-end are compared to space and to the public research and commercial Australian space value chain, with international space community. We industry. Technology diffusion and both domestic and international need to focus on where we can be knowledge transfer is a key driver for customers, will continue to be really valuable and differentiated, if we space exploration, and R&D is the strengthened by Australia’s well- don’t focus, we’ll smear out like the applicability of these technologies to established relationships, like with proverbial bug hitting the windshield land-based industries and daily life. NASA, for the national benefit. of the rocket as it flies past us.

Megan Clark “In 2030 we will have created jobs we can only dream about today.”

The next ten years holds great opportunity for Australia in terms of Dr Megan Clark is the Head of the its role in space. By 2030, we will be Australian Space Agency and a participating in joint space missions director of Rio Tinto, CSL Limited and CARE Australia. Prior to this, with commercial partners and she was Chief Executive of the international space agencies such as CSIRO, Director at NM Rothschild NASA and the European Space Agency. and Sons (Australia) and Vice Australia will use its unique position President of Technology and in the Southern Hemisphere to be subsequently Vice President of home to ground stations in every state Health, Safety and Environment and territory to send commands and at BHP Billiton. receive information from satellites and space craft in low orbit. Australia will be a critical geographical location for communication with space, not just in our lowest orbit and middle orbit, but also as part of the lunar communication network. I’m certain that we will have The third area where Australia will that are not on Earth, but on the lunar live feeds from Mars and from the participate actively in space is in or Martian surface or on celestial International Space Station, which using our knowledge in robotics bodies that we’re exploring. By 2030, will beam right to the main street of in remote asset management. many kids will be going into these jobs Australia, inspiring our next generation. Put simply, we will utilise the thinking that they are quite normal. maintenance and operations robots We often think of the space industry we already use in the oil and gas Remember, Australians are as being focused in STEM. In reality, industries – but on other planets. The innovators, we’re the country that there is actually such as broad robots will assist with the work we invented Wi-Fi. Australia can play a range of opportunities that if those know we must do on the Moon and pivotal role in the next generation interested in joining the industry keep Mars. The future will see us bring of communication technology as we their eyes open, they will be quite these advances in working remotely, use laser light to communicate in surprised to see that there is a place back to our shores, allowing Australia space and between space and Earth. for all. For example, philosophers and to continue to position itself as the Australia is a big island with large ethicists will be needed to analyse the leader of remote operations, as we remote areas. By 2030 space will be a impact of possible discoveries of life are today. ubiquitous part of our communication in space; lawyers to draw-up multi- networks linking our land, sea and While some may be concerned about lateral agreements as we cooperate airspace. Our trains, trucks and the impact of technology on jobs – I in space; communication specialists airborne taxis will know their precise feel we’ll actually be creating jobs, as we enable longer and deeper positioning to within centimetres jobs we can’t fully imagine today. space missions; and electricians to using global positioning satellites and Jobs building and controlling robots set up these connections. There are mobile phone networks. an extraordinary number and range

of jobs required. For those keen to the Moon, we will be in a realm where quenched our thirst for truly ‘human’ be involved, giving advice to our we are not so well protected. While space exploration. younger generation now, I think water is a good barrier to radiation, Certainly by 2030, I’m hoping that the most important thing is to stay and possibly part of the solution, this we’ll look back and reflect on a curious, learn about what the industry issue has not been fully solved for growing, robust and vibrant space is doing and make sure that you human missions yet. industry in Australia. We’ll have jobs follow your passion. Much of what we do in space is that we couldn’t have dreamed of for But to be able to achieve our being automated as seen on the our kids to pursue. I hope we’ll look ambitions for 2030, there are areas International Space Station, which back from the Moon and Mars and where we need technology to was of course originally designed know that we’ve been at all times safe advance. Firstly, for missions of to be for humans. We will have as we explore and expand into space, longer duration we desperately need automated lunar gateways orbiting that we’ve never lost an Australian larger rockets and novel propulsion the Moon and missions to other leaving Earth, in space or coming systems, which can refuel while in planets. However, space exploration back, and that we have operated orbit. As well, one of the biggest goes into something much more in that environment as a very challenges we will face while working innate in human nature. I do think responsible global (galactic) citizen. on Mars will be the exposure to people will continue to be part of radiation. The International Space our exploration programs. For years Station sits only about 400km from we have sent rovers, orbiters and the Earth, meaning that it is within the satellites to space, providing insights shadow of our magnetic field. When to space that we have never seen we go beyond that towards Mars and before, however this has never really

Nikolai “Space will become Khlystov much more visible and accessible.”

What big changes do you think we’ll see in the space sector in 2030? I think it will be no surprise to space enthusiasts that there will be an increase in commercial activity, including space tourism that will get space into the headlines and into people’s minds. As people can start to afford it, we’re going to start meeting people who have actually been able to take a trip to space. We’ll see the launch of large satellite constellations which will also introduce risks, particularly relating to orbital debris. There’s a good chance we’ll land people on the Moon by 2030. We may even see countries or commercial actors start to establish a permanent base. These factors are going to make space much more visible and accessible to the general public, and especially to children and how they perceive the sector. The next ten years are going to have a profound cultural impact. How do you think we ensure a sustainable future and what does that look like in ten years’ time? One of the biggest risks we have is sustainability. The orbital debris issue is very serious and it is important to work on several different fronts to pre- empt and to tackle the debris issue. It is going to be really important for the large constellations that are proposed to have robust management systems, to be autonomous and able

Nikolai Khlystov is the Lead for Future of Mobility Platform at the World Economic Forum and also manages the Global Future Council on Space Technologies, which brings together global multi-stakeholder experts in the space sector. Passionate about the potential of humankind to expand its existence beyond Earth by conquering new frontiers, Nikolai is a thoughtleader and promoter of space exploration.

to respond quickly to any incidents. In ten years’ time what sort of space Hand in hand with the development of businesses do you think we’ll see? this is active debris removal, and how Space tourism will be a big thing over to take satellites out of orbit. the next ten years. I think we’ll have a On the assurance side, the guidelines range of offerings in sub-orbital space, need to be strengthened. A lot of including high-altitude balloons. That experts in the field feel that the might be a more accessible option that guidelines are too relaxed at this point, gets people closer to space. Space that the ‘25-year rule’ for time to de- hotels could take off, we could even orbit does not correspond to the reality start seeing the first of these taking of the 21st century. shape or launching by 2030. There are aspects that the industry In terms of productivity, there are will build from the bottom up instead large constellations with hundreds of waiting for formal guidelines or of satellites planned, and that’s regulations. I believe the industry is going to provide for some exciting interested in doing the right thing and opportunities and connectivity. Linked will start taking action voluntarily to to that on the business front, is the What do you think the role of groups ensure the overall health of orbits. That active removal of old satellites, rocket like the Forum will be in the coming makes sense on a commercial side, bodies and large pieces of debris. decade for the space sector? as well as for sustainability. Orbits Servicing, repairing and refuelling as This is an area where you see multi- are difficult to clean up, so one or a business is going to grow, and with stakeholder collaboration increasing two accidents could really ruin it for that you’ll have additional innovation - commercial actors of different decades if not centuries to come. technologies that come online for sizes, government bodies, the UN, Another big threat — a threat and on-orbit servicing, which is going to various foundations and even private opportunity — is the resource race. support the growth of the sector and individuals - who are becoming active By 2030 we could see public or private future developments. in the field. The Forum can support the actors planning missions to asteroids development of formal processes and Launch of course is going to support or the Moon for resource extraction. the development of various and best all of these developments. Launch Guidelines are needed to prevent a practice guidelines, but also provide providers of different sizes are trying ‘wild west’ scenario in space: how can a more informal, neutral platform for to develop the optimal launch vehicle. those resources be used, and who has multi-stakeholder engagement and Reusability is going to be a big a right to them. We need to ensure that collaboration. The Forum can provide commercial factor, and I think that’s there is opportunity for the commercial the means where these stakeholders going to become the norm by 2030. sector to develop that industry, but can come together to discuss the that it is done sustainably. issues and opportunities where each of them plays a role. Everybody has a voice in such an environment and that builds trust.

“When you see the Earth from space, it feels like the Earth is our spacecraft and the people that inhabit it are its crew. Such a view convinces us we need to look after our Earth and protect it.”

Pamela Melroy Adviser, Australian Space Agency Former NASA Astronaut

Nobu Okada “...take action now for a sustainable space.”

What can we expect for the space sector in the next ten years? Nobu Okada is the Founder and CEO of Astroscale. Founded in 2013, The space sector is expanding rapidly Astroscale is developing solutions in terms of investment, innovation, for active debris removal services to utilisation and discovery. In the mitigate the growing and hazardous next ten years society will reap build-up of debris in space. untold benefits from this growing interest in space, but there will be consequences. This rapid expansion will lead to one of two scenarios: a sustainable space environment or an unsustainable one. The density of objects in space is approaching a critical level already and when we add thousands more satellites in the near future, the potential for collisions that lead to a proliferation hundreds of millions that are smaller. years ago, only the United Nations of debris becomes more likely. It is We need more clear space traffic and the Inter-Agency Space Debris crucial to take action now, otherwise management, which includes better Coordination Committee (IADC) had we will head in the direction of an awareness of the orbital environment, intense discussions about space unsustainable future. and safe and reliable debris removal debris matters. Now we see trade What do you think are the key technology. The space community is associations, industry coalitions, challenges to achieving sustainability taking steps forward on both of these academia, and sometimes even in space? topics as there are global discussions individual countries coming together on developing more accurate and to create rules and guidelines, so the To use an analogy, if we look at transparent observations – also called awareness of the issue has greatly any highway and there is a broken- space situational awareness (SSA) – improved. One of the things that down car, roadside assistance and companies like ours are working makes me more confident about services will remove the car so that on the technology and policies to the future is that in June 2019, it is not a hazard to other vehicles. facilitate active debris removal (ADR). the United Nations Committee on To facilitate this, there are road the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space Do you think we’ll be able to achieve rules, a traffic control system and approved Guidelines for the Long- agreement over the next ten years on a car removal service. The same term Sustainability of Outer Space what space laws should exist? systems can be applied to space. Activities. Of course, these are The orbital “highways” are already Compared to six or seven years just guidelines, but it’s generally very congested with more than ago, we have seen a proliferation of quite difficult to get a unanimous 23,000 pieces of debris larger than regulatory discussions around the agreement on international matters, ten centimetres in diameter and world. If we look back two to three so I think it shows that the UN is a

good platform to obtain international consensus on global issues. I’m more optimistic about the future now as we’ve seen some progress compared to several years ago. How do you think we will overcome some of the cost-related challenges to achieving space sustainability? If a service costs a lot then people will be reluctant to use it. We need a reasonably priced debris removal service and we are getting there. If we use the example of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), everybody knew that CFCs were depleting the ozone layer but at the time there was no technology to replace it. Thanks to innovation, companies came up with alternatives to CFCs, and at first, they were very expensive. However, governments came together and cooperated to regulate the removal of CFCs and December 2019, OneWeb announced simply taking out the trash. As for as a result, the alternatives became that they will mount docking plates Astroscale, we also want to expand affordable. I believe cost-effective on their satellites for debris removal our business to in-orbit servicing. debris removal solutions will become which are compatible with magnets. Let’s say ten percent of satellites the incentive for countries to agree This is a step in the right direction for become defunct in space. First, we on the next steps for a sustainable the standardisation of best practices must address the defunct satellites space. In 2020, Astroscale will launch on how to be a responsible player in by removing them from orbit, but the world’s first commercial debris space. the next question is how can we removal technology demonstration help make sure the remaining 90 What will debris removal activities using magnetic capture technology. percent of active satellites stay active? look like in 2030? After researching various options, we With in-orbit services such as life decided that magnets are the most In 2030, I hope to see debris removal extension, satellite relocation, repair light-weight, minimally intrusive as routine work in space, much like and refuelling, we can prevent these and low-cost solution for capturing waste management on the ground. satellites from becoming debris in the objects. At least one constellation We want it to be so routine that we future. I think this is going to become provider has the same opinion - in eventually don’t make headlines for quite a big market.

Pamela Melroy “Australia’s astounding progress as an international player in space.”

By 2030 there will be substantial changes in the role of government Pamela Melroy is an adviser to the within the space sector. We should Australian Space Agency and Director expect to see space becoming much of Space Technology and Policy at Nova Systems. She is also a retired more commercialised. You only have United States Air Force Colonel and to look back to 2010 in the United test pilot, former NASA Astronaut and States when just a few people had Shuttle Commander and has spent heard of or understood commercial over 38 days in space. space - it seemed highly unlikely to many that we could have commercial achievements in something as technically challenging as going to space. Today though, it’s a completely different ballgame. Organisations such as Virgin Galactic are beginning to become big players and this trend will only continue over the next ten years as it has in other transportation- I’m convinced we will see interesting you could put into any spacecraft that related industries. technologies and ideas in the coming would allow humans to thrive. decade. The mining, oil, gas and remote Another technological issue we will asset management sectors are the While commercial ventures into likely face is being able to maintain crown jewels in Australia’s technology space will become more common, effective communication networks, arsenal; I expect these industries will be government support will continue to especially over long distances such translated into space. play a role. For example, in less than as between space and Earth. To meet two years since forming their own When it comes to skills, all kinds of the connectivity objectives required space agency, Australia has already engineering will continue to be very in space, we will have to improve taken steps that can be described as important within the space industry. I the robustness of networks so that nothing short of astounding. One of also think that cyber and automation continual communications dropouts do the things that I always tell people is technologies will have greater not occur. Business depends on it. that all space agencies have challenges. importance to the sector within the next With autonomous technology on the At some point Australia will have the ten years. These are exciting times for rise, some immediately equate that same problems as other more mature our next generation! space agencies, the effect being that to the loss of jobs. I think instead we they get to the same collective point, Past human spaceflight programs have should be looking for the up-scaling all wrestling with the future together. had enormous challenges around life and growth in the type of jobs that At that point, Australia will be firmly support systems. They are still bespoke, support automated outcomes, such as embedded in the Global Space exquisite designs, and firmly tied vehicles and decision-making systems, Community as a big player. to the spacecraft. The Holy Grail is a many of which are jobs that don’t self-contained life support system that necessarily require a university degree.

There has been a tendency to silo and isolate commercial, civil and national security space. I believe we have to think about it as a more integrated strategy – what is it we are trying to achieve as a whole? What are the capabilities we collectively need to develop? If we have routine space commerce back and forth between the Earth and the Moon, and you have a commercial version of GPS and multiple entities performing activities on the surface of the Moon, how do you together protect commerce? What happens if your scientific outpost has a dispute related to access to a resource that is required to keep humans alive? How do we work through that? Having a globally integrated approach is the major challenge that all governments face. Finally, while I do not believe that space travel will begin to become affordable to the wider public by 2030, the new and evolving world of virtual and augmented reality will help give people a deeper understanding of what space is actually like, especially around the environment and how we look after it. When you see the Earth from space, it feels like the Earth is our spacecraft and the people that inhabit it are its crew. Such a view convinces us we I would argue a challenge we have is around the most responsible way to need to look after our Earth and protect that the people that currently maintain use resources on/from the Moon, Mars it in order to keep it healthy. I can important sub-systems in the space and elsewhere in our solar system. confirm this through my own personal sector have university degrees – When you reflect on our world, it’s experience seeing the Earth from just I believe we need to move away from hard not to conclude that there may that perspective. this as a baseline requirement. We be national security challenges arising need to design and establish a space over the next ten years. While effective work force of the future which isn’t discussion and dialogue will help exclusively tertiary educated, one more mitigate these, the rising capabilities open to talent of all types. and competing interests of major Another challenge we face is ensuring powers as they seek to control space regulation is fair and equitable, will again see the need for effective particularly around the use of resources legal parameters. in space. This will allow all to thrive Today, China has a rover on the and enable commercial industry far side of the Moon and a lunar to undertake major infrastructure communications relay. This is the enhancements which will benefit start of a push that many believe will everyone – on terms that are continue. Such actions – from multiple predictable and fair. We currently rely nations – will have national security on space regulations dating back to implications that are difficult to predict the 1960’s, I think we will require new and respond to. thought leaders to drive the dialogue

Peter Beck

“I hope that access to space will be completely democratised”

Where do you think the space industry services such as 5G – the space industry If you look back to the 1960’s, there will be in 2030? falls into a slight recession as it has done were around 20 launch pads active in previous cyclical decades. The benefit at Cape Canaveral alone, all firing Space is quite cyclical in its with the kind of dedicated small satellite up Atlas, Titan and Delta rockets. So, advancements. Every decade or so launch we’ve made possible, is that it’s we’ve got some way to go before we there’s a big project that takes place. faster, easier and more affordable to get back to the 1960’s rate of launch. At the moment, it is the proliferation get new technology on orbit to try new of small satellites in low Earth orbit I certainly hope access to space by things and develop new capabilities providing internet services. I think there 2030 is completely democratised. It to replace obsolete ones, those on the will be huge numbers of spacecraft in shouldn’t have the level of complexity ground and in space. orbit, and a lot of the terrestrial services that it has now. Provided the market that we utilise today will be provided in Generally, people in the space sector stays buoyant, you’re going to see a orbit, with low latency, and be prolific are very optimistic about what continual drive of increased launch anywhere on the planet. the future holds for space and the frequency and easier access. technologies being developed. That’s the positive outlook. However, If you build the internet in space and it’s some would say that the space industry What do you think launch frequency accessible, we’re never turning that off. is in a bubble right now and while that will look like in 2030? We may be maintaining up to 30,000 bubble may not burst, it’s certainly going spacecraft in orbit, and that requires a Rocket Lab’s Electron was the fourth to deflate a bit. The potential downside very high launch frequency. These kinds most launched vehicle in the world of the bubble is that extra-terrestrial of space applications, these very large last year, following China’s Long constellations fail to be economic and infrastructure builds are going to drive March, Russia’s Soyuz and SpaceX’s are outpaced by the terrestrial rollout of launch frequency. Falcon 9. And we launched six times.

personal view is the way you achieve Peter Beck is the founder and CEO an order of magnitude is to walk away of Rocket Lab, a leading US and NZ from burning fuel – it is a crude way to based launch and small-satellite propel yourself. The rocket engines of service provider specialising in low the future are not going to look like the cost access to space. rocket engines of today. They’re going to be microwave or laser transmitted energy. If you think about chemical combustion, the highest exhaust velocity that you can achieve is only a miniscule fraction of the speed of light. If you go up into space and you accelerate for an eternity, you’ll only ever reach the exhaust velocity of those combusted products. We need propulsion that has What will help bring down the cost of exhaust velocities higher than that. democratising space. It’s not just about launch by 2030? Ion propulsion can potentially be a launch, it’s not just about spacecraft, it’s greater fraction of the speed of light. about how we make data access and Production and reusability are the two Laser propulsion, where you beam a information from space easy. elements that are going to have the laser onto the back of spacecraft, may biggest impact on cost. The more you This is an incredibly exciting time. As I reach as high as 0.25 the speed of light. produce something, the cheaper it gets. was growing up I always used to wish There needs to be new technologies The more you fly, the cheaper it gets. I was born in the Apollo era because I to support the bigger ambitions we For us, the majority of the composite figured that was the most prestigious have. But that’s getting a little beyond a work is fully automated, which helped and best time there in was space. decade of research. to bring down the time of production But I honestly believe today is that from hundreds of hours to just 12. We What does Rocket Lab look time, because you just see so much 3D print all of our rocket engines and like in 2030? innovation. We’ve flown high school have done since day one. 3D printing students’ spacecraft, we flew the first Very different to what we look like now. as a technology in space propulsion Australian academic spacecraft. While We’re trying to make space access has been revolutionary. I think there are big bets being placed really easy. Launch has been a huge and maybe not all those bets are going It’s going to be challenging to make a barrier which we believe we’ve solved. to come off, it’s a net upwards trend. massive jump all the way through to We’re now transitioning from a launch aircraft-like reusability. But I do think company to a space company and have we will see reusability as the norm and started building our own satellites. The at least some attempts at complete next barrier is helping companies reach vehicle reusability. their ultimate use case for space. For example, if you’re building a spacecraft Will new types of fuels play a role in to take pictures, you actually just want bringing down cost? the pictures. You don’t want to have to Governments have spent billions of design, build and operate the spacecraft. dollars and decades researching this. I want commercial entities to worry Take the highest energy combination about the revenue that they want to on the periodic table: hydrogen generate from space and governments and oxygen. The space shuttle used to worry about the capabilities that hydrogen and oxygen, and there they need. In my opinion, anything are no new elements that are going else should be a commodity including to yield more chemical energy than the spacecraft and launch. Without what we’ve already got. The hydrogen having to build your own constellation and oxygen combustion devices or build your own spacecraft, then we have are operating at 98 percent we can throw a sensor on one of our combustion efficiency. You can argue platforms and provide that information. there’s another two percent there, but It’s really taking the next step towards that’s not an order of magnitude. My

Rebecca “To innovate beyond Cowen-Hirsch what we cannot even begin to imagine today.”

For a long time, ten years was not considered a distant horizon in the satellite realm. Today, with technology advancing faster than ever before, the cost of deploying space assets reducing significantly and the growing competitive environment, we are seeing a significant acceleration of timelines throughout our industry. We successfully forecast these trends within Inmarsat and have been well-positioned to invest ahead of the demand curve. By 2030, we’ll have more buyers, a greater range of applications and users more focused on the betterment of lives for people who today don’t even consider how dependent they already are on space.

Currently, approximately 80 percent of the roughly US$400 billion global space economy is commercial space activity*, and this will only continue to expand over the next ten years. And in doing so, there will be applications that are much broader than just navigation and well beyond satellite communications. These new applications span from known knowns such as on-orbit servicing and debris removal, known unknowns such as space weather predictions, precision farming and environmental assessments, and finally, unknown unknowns, which leverage the vast amount of space data available to create solutions that we cannot possibly anticipate.

Rebecca Cowen-Hirsch is the Senior Vice President for Government Strategy and Policy at Inmarsat Government Inc. Rebecca is responsible for establishing Inmarsat’s strategic direction with respect to the US government and has worked in defence, aerospace and executive leadership over the past twenty-five years.

In terms of new innovations in the The need for space situational satellite communications space, we awareness will only become more will have a whole range of additional pertinent as space becomes more services that can be consumed by a crowded. By 2025, it is predicted that much broader range of international there will be 25,000 additional satellites stakeholders. By 2030, technology will in space, the vast majority in low Earth allow for optics to have a different orbit, and with the forecast arrival of ground architecture that supports space tourism, the risk of a collision will satellite communications or services. only increase. Once you have people in As a result, we expect there to be space, the risk increases dramatically. an integration between the space That is why space situational segment, the terrestrial segment awareness and debris mitigation is key and the wireless segment, with to the success of the space sector over communications flowing between the next ten years. satellite communication, terrestrial Directly related to this, is the role of communication or wireless, whichever government in the space sector. In is more appropriate for that particular the past, governments were out in application, atmospheric condition or coalition of likeminded nations that front in terms of space innovation, regulatory environment. establish norms, because there is no investment and technology. More sovereignty in space. Satellite communications will also recently, we have seen a pivot play a foundational role in any future towards the commercial sector, where Looking forward to the future, in Cislunar economy which will be very innovation, technological advances order to sustain momentum, a very interesting to watch and hopefully and the capital available to industry significant and continued investment play a role in. In the next ten years now outpaces government. This is required into the talent and skills we will really see what it means to do shift, however, does not alleviate behind these advancements. So, Cislunar. The question of whether there the governmental responsibility being able to invest in the next is an economic and imperative route to create regulatory and policy generation of scientists, technologists, to Cislunar still remains to be seen. frameworks so that standards of engineers and advocates who can However, one thing is clear, it is not behaviour can be established and continue to innovate beyond what we possible to accomplish any of these impressive objectives such as the cannot even begin to imagine today missions without resilient, reliable pursuit of economic opportunity and is more important than ever before. communications. freedom of navigation are equally This investment is going to payback available to any nation. Otherwise, in economic prosperity, global impact The two key challenges still facing the commercial industry may do what and can provide benefits to mankind the space industry are firstly, space is in its best business interest, which on a daily basis. situational awareness and secondly, may or may not be in the best interest the role of government. of shared global value. Ultimately, *Source: The Space Report 2019 Q3, Space it will need to be an international Foundation

Rick Ambrose

In 2030 we will have a vibrant space economy, with space exploration and Rick Ambrose is the Executive the presence of humans in space at Vice President of Lockheed “We will have Martin Space with four decades the core. There’s a lot that needs to of experience in the defence and happen to make this a reality, and it’s aerospace industry. He is also a my hope that by then, we’ve got at astronauts National Association of Corporate least dozens of people living on the Directors Governance Fellow, a Moon and small ferries of ships back Fellow of the American Institute and forth. sustainably living of Aeronautics and Astronautics and an International Academy of While we can get onto the Moon on the Moon in ten Astronautics quickly with our current technologies, Full Academician. the real issue is keeping astronauts out there. Even on the International Space years.” Station we have trouble with supplies, especially water. And that’s why if we want to stay in space for a sustained period of time, we need to come up Going to the Moon is important This will reduce risk of injury from with new systems of communication because, just like the Apollo missions, walking off a cliff, for example. We’ll and navigation as well as localising the there are endless discoveries we can also face these challenges when going supply of raw materials. make. In the next ten years, we’re going to Mars, and we’ll need to develop to experience quite a few breakthroughs infrastructure there as well. When you travel out into deep space, with materials. We can learn from these AI is an area I think will produce you have to anticipate the unexpected. and rapidly evolve the technology great developments in the coming How do you handle food and water before we go further away. At first, we’re decade and ultimately support long resources? How do you manage going to have to source a lot of the distance communication. At Lockheed different medical impacts in zero supplies from Earth, but we’ll eventually Martin, we’re already running basic gravity? Doctors will be well-trained start to develop the technologies to AI algorithms in space, such as our on these missions, but this knowledge actually build in space. Some people experimental satellite called Pony still needs to be developed. Looking are focused on manufacturing in zero Express 1. This will enable AI, data further towards settlements in space, gravity, which I’d love to see happen – analytics, cloud networking and can we produce agriculture on the but doing this will be tough. Moon? And how do we support advanced satellite communications. tourists? These are all the things we Communication and navigation will also Essentially, we’re trying to use need to master before we achieve be essential areas for us to develop in Pony Express 1 to learn how to sustainable journeys into space, and the coming decade. In the early days, anticipate a problem and perform some, like agriculture in space, may having two to four satellites in orbit predictive actions before the problem even be beyond ten years. around the Moon will enable us to manifests. In ten years’ time, I see communicate with astronauts and help this kind of technology being routine them navigate with 10m accuracy. onboard satellites.

Additionally, with Digital Twin technology, we have an integrated system of production and operational data from an ‘as-built’ system that is analysed and can deliver predictive capability using advanced machine learning and data analytics to come to life. This allows our customers to visualise how a corresponding physical twin will perform a specific mission. One stress scenario we’re looking at is what happens if people on Mars have a major crisis? These problems will happen fast, and you can’t call back to Earth with ‘Houston, we have a problem’. That’s why we’re thinking about how we put a tool in the hands of astronauts with predictive AI to alert them and correct the problem. And we’re currently running 4th Gen Digital Twin technologies on large satellites for the US Government. The next step? My team has a term called ‘Cognisant Digital Twins’, which means it has an AI or machine learning algorithm inside it aggregating data. Even the individual twins that have AI can now come together using broader AI aggregation of the whole system. And I think that’s well within ten years. Space is an exciting place. How do we to look for it before. That’s part of the find water – true water – in deep space, unlock the secrets of the solar system, nature of science and exploration. You there’s a high probability we’ll find universe and how life is formed? I keep learning and improving. But it some form of life, and I can’t think of often tell people that when I was in also tells you that you have to build in anything more exciting than that. school, I thought ‘Earth is so special. a lot of agility and flexibility, because It’s the only place in the solar system you’re going to encounter unknowns with water’. But now we find water and whatever you do, you have to keep everywhere – we just didn’t know how people safe. I think the first time we

“As I was growing up I always used to wish I was born in the Apollo era because I figured that was the most prestigious and best time there was in space. But I honestly believe today is that time, because you just see so much innovation.”

Peter Beck CEO, Rocket Lab

Ruth Pritchard- “This is what Kelly humans do, they go for the stars, literally.”

We are in Space 3.0. The next ten years hold a lot of potential for satellite communications that will transform the world as we know it today.

Unquestionably, by 2030 being remote will no longer mean being disconnected. We will have worked the kinks out of broadband from space so that regardless of where you are – whether on land or on a plane; at sea or under the sea – you will be connected. And that’s pretty amazing. The holy grail of space age communications – that is, going from outer space directly to a personal hand- held device – is the goal for engineers to achieve by 2030. Today, with power and life limitations, viable service from outer space has not been achieved. But that doesn’t mean that it can’t be done. The invention of the transistor 75 years ago transformed the way we listened to music – from anywhere, even on the beach! So why can’t there be a similar shift in communications over the next ten years? And who says that it has to be satellites that enable communication? Personally, I think that there are other space age technologies and platforms that could be viable – such as balloons and drones – and maybe we’ll even decide that something that’s in air space as opposed to outer space is the most effective way to get access connectivity. Most likely, it’s going to be a combination of technologies.

may become a problem because these Ruth Pritchard-Kelly is the Vice are not controllable. A lot of the small President for Regulatory Affairs satellites that are being designed have for OneWeb with over 25 years no propulsion or controls. Designers of experience in the commercial say they’re only going out for a short communications satellite industry. She oversees a global team who time, but that’s how long it takes for an work to reform regulatory and accident to happen - there will likely spectrum policies internationally, be a huge market coming up for debris specifically on behalf of the removal companies. newer non-geostationary satellite When space exploration first started, constellations such as OneWeb. it was inconceivable that more than a couple of governments would be able to be involved. But within ten years it was private companies that really got involved, with the communication companies putting up satellites in In a highly populated urban area, you space. And now, we’re at the point won’t need access in space, you’ll where we have individual billionaires have great terrestrial connectivity, with the money and desire to go to whether it’s wireless or wired (with space. They’ve all got their own rockets fibre optic). Issues around WIFI will and are building satellites and their also have been worked out to stop us own tourism vehicles and they want to from being suddenly disconnected go to Mars. as is often the case today. People talk Currently, there’s a gold rush mentality about the last mile, but often it’s just when it comes to space. Many people the last metre! think they’re going to literally find gold The opportunity that enhanced on asteroids or the Moon, and they’re connectivity offers to help those in willing to risk a lot to get there to find developed countries to get a decent out. I can’t speak to that, I haven’t really education and job is something I’m researched that industry, but people are very passionate and excited about. going to try. This is what humans do, Think about it. Instead of travelling they go for the stars, literally. overseas – often risking their lives much closer, and they call that non- – they will be able to get a degree geostationary. But frankly, there are an from Harvard or Sydney University infinite number of ways to be non- by logging in anywhere and getting geostationary. the qualification they need to work in a financial hub, for which they will Regulation will also need to adapt to not need to be in New York, London the new era. Regulations for traditional or Tokyo. These hubs have come satellites are written in very specific, about due to density of population. technical language. When regulations But when you no longer need to be are so specific, it’s hard to update in a place physically to be connected, them when a new technology comes why couldn’t your financial centres be along. Part of my job is to try to help anywhere in the world? regulators to be less focused on the specifics of technologies and more One of the big kinks that we need to be focused towards providing a certain clear on is what is the best architecture service level. for us to use? Traditional satellites are in geostationary orbit – orbiting at the Debris is one of the biggest issues same speed as the Earth – enabling facing the space industry – and we’ve them to cover a third of the globe. It’s got to solve it by 2030. Outer space a very efficient technology. However, is vast and although debris is not yet they are too far away resulting in a a problem, the proliferation of small communications delay. We need to be satellites and objects at low orbits

Salem Humaid Al Marri

Astronauts on board the International Salem Humaid Al Marri is the Space Station are around two to three Assistant Director General for hours from home and protected by Scientific and Technical Affairs and “Investing in space the Earth’s atmosphere. We need to Head of the UAE Astronaut Program keep astronauts comfortable, healthy at the Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Center in the United Arab Emirates is investing in and safe and this requires systems (UAE). He has over ten years’ to manage water, energy and food. experience in the space industry and We’ve been to the Moon before and one of his major goals is to achieve humanity.” can reuse the technology to get there domestic satellite development but staying there for a sustained through Emirati engineers. period is the biggest challenge. The next ten years will play a big part in developing technologies to achieve sustained journeys into space, but I think actually achieving these solutions might be further than ten years away. What do you think we can achieve Galactic and Blue Origin will be quite in the space industry in the next active by 2030, however, actually What is UAE’s vision for the space ten years? achieving commercial space tourism industry for 2030? will be difficult and might be further I think that we will definitely see Currently, the UAE is investing in than ten years away. the return of humans to the Moon. space; we look at space as a way of This is very achievable based on Finally, the number of people that investing in science and technology the investments we are seeing have gone into space will drastically in a way that it can come back and globally, specifically by NASA and increase in the coming ten years. benefit people on the ground, not just the European Space Agency. I also In the history of human spaceflight in the UAE but humanity in general. think countries like the UAE that have (the past 60 years) there have been Our major vision is the ‘Mars 2117 formed space agencies more recently, approximately 500 people that have Project’ – a 100-year vision for the will play a role in these programmes. gone into space. I see this number UAE to lead international efforts doubling or even tripling by 2030. in establishing a human colony on Furthermore, I see the industry’s Mars. There are many steps involved reliance on governments decreasing What do you see as some of the in achieving this goal and we have a over the next ten years. With challenges we will face in getting number of missions already in train companies like SpaceX and Boeing humans into space? as a means to reaching this goal. coming into play, we can already I believe that one of the biggest see how space is becoming more One of these is the Emirates Mars challenges is developing the commercialised. I also believe space Mission where we aim to launch an technologies for people to remain in tourism companies such as Virgin orbiter to Mars by 2021. The probe will space for sustained periods of time.

conduct analysis on the atmosphere securing our own food, water What role do you think governments of Mars hoping to give insight into and energy are common challenges. have to play in the space industry in its Martian atmosphere. This will be Any technologies or research that the next ten years? data that has never been produced is done towards that aim for deep I think it’s very important for before and will be ground-breaking space exploration can directly benefit governments to help nurture a data in assisting our mission. The humanity on Earth. space industry in their countries more we are able to study the Martian Essentially, I see countries like the in the upcoming years. With the atmosphere, the more you’re able UAE, with more modest investments commercialisation of the industry with to understand it and potentially this in Space compared to say Russia small to medium enterprises coming information will be key in our goal of and the USA, working collaboratively into the equation and contributing setting up human colonies on Mars. with the international space significantly to the industry, I believe Another focus area is water, energy industry to achieve big objectives. that it’s important for governments and food; three components vital to By 2030 I definitely see the UAE to invest and support businesses. supporting human life anywhere. playing a significant role within the Governments should see that these These areas line up with international international community of space. investments will help sustain growth challenges here on Earth where and ultimately come back into the country in their contributions to the space missions.

Steven Freeland is Professor of International Law at Western Sydney University, specialising in Commercial Space Law, and previously the Dean of the School Steven of Law. He has also been an advisor to the Australian, New Zealand, Norwegian and several other governments on issues relating to national space legislative Freeland frameworks and policy and has represented the Australian Government at the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Users of Outer Space (UN COPUOS) meetings. He has recently been appointed by UN COPUOS to co-chair multilateral discussions on the exploration, exploitation and utilisation of space resources at the forthcoming meeting of the UN COPUOS Legal Subcommittee in Vienna in 2020.

on the appropriate frameworks to much larger ‘dead’ satellites – IRAS apply to new technology. This is and GGSE-4 – passed within metres “The Three plus highlighted, for example, by our of each other. NASA often moves the increasing awareness of the risks International Space Station when associated with space debris and, in it calculates a higher than normal Four C’s of Space.” that context, the future management risk of collision with debris. We of proposed large constellations of are increasingly likely to see more small satellites. Space debris has potentially serious situations in the become a growing problem over time. coming years. If we maintain a ‘business as usual’ While there are some widely-accepted approach, the increasing proliferation and practical mitigation guidelines of debris threatens the very future of in place, as well as promising humankind’s relationship with space. developments with regards to The emergence of large (some remediation, each proposed solution commentators rather disparagingly brings with it other questions. Most refer to them by the descriptor ‘mega’) significantly, these technological Space is an extraordinary and multi- constellations of small satellites offers measures will never resolve the faceted area, encompassing at the great benefits, but we must avoid issue in the absence of responsible same time issues of a scientific, being ‘seduced’ by just that side of the behaviour by all space actors. ledger without developing an effective cultural, strategic, commercial, To add to the already complex way to manage the way they will alter military, economic, exploratory, social technical challenges, as we debate the the paradigm of space as we know it. and religious nature, depending on most effective space debris mitigation After all, if the well-publicised plans one’s frame of reference. In essence, and remediation measures, many of just a few large corporations come the future of humanity is inextricably difficult geopolitical, policy and legal to fruition, the number of objects tied to our ability to ensure a viable questions also arise. Who is going to launched into space over the coming long-term future for space activities. At pay for space debris removal? Whose years will dwarf the number thus far a minimum, this requires consensus responsibility is it? And, as some launched since the 1957 Sputnik 1 on the most appropriate legal and states will argue, if a state develops mission by a factor of up to ten times. regulatory frameworks necessary to the capability to remove or deflect promote the ongoing safety, security Just in the past few months we have space debris, how can we be sure that and sustainability of space. seen several ‘near misses’ in space. the same technology will not be used Space is also hard, and despite our Last September, the European Space to do the same to another country’s remarkable technological progress, Agency undertook a conjunction ‘live’ satellites? avoidance measure when faced with we need to understand that each Further, as more objects are sent into an abnormally high possibility of a stage of progression brings with orbit, and we increase our ability also collision with one of the Starlink small it many challenges, which are to return them to Earth for reuse – itself satellites. In late January 2020, we sometimes conflicting. A careful a potentially important mitigation balancing is required when agreeing were all watching helplessly as two

© 2020 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. 30 Voices on 2030: The Future of Space | 81 measure - we will need an improved in maintaining a stable space and, importantly, coordinated space, environment. None of them stand to air, sea and ground traffic management gain if certain ‘red lines’ of behaviour regime. To remain sustainable in space, are crossed. Whilst this is easily stated, we must ultimately develop a unified it is much harder for some elements traffic management system and we will within those countries to publicly need it soon. accept. Already we hear that space is ‘just another war fighting domain’, or Then and now: what regulation is that (quite wrongly) it is simply to be required for the future? regarded as the ‘wild wild west’. The Up until now, the fundamental carefully calibrated regulatory and principles and behavioural guidelines behavioural frameworks that have for most space activities have served us well in space for 60 years emanated from international and clearly debunk such claims. multilateral organisations such as In the end, we need to engage with the UN COPUOS. In June 2019, that each one of the multiple facets of body adopted some important Space space and not just reflect on what Sustainability Guidelines, which might be the loudest voices in the represents another positive move room. There are many voices to be forward. Yet, the discussions leading heard. Space is so much more than to this consensus took ten years - the well-worn mantra of ‘Contested regulation at the multilateral level is and Congested and Competitive’. It is typically slow moving. also ‘Communal and Cooperative and In an increasingly burgeoning Collaborative and Commercial’. commercial space environment, By changing the language of space, countries are at the same time we can unlock and promote the notion developing their own national space However, even as we shift towards of common interest. In the end, any laws. These national regulatory this new normal, the international legal framework around space is frameworks typically not only reflect law principles will remain highly designed to promote these common the international obligations of the relevant, and will become even more interests, so as to ensure that space relevant state but go further in an so through their implementation into remains sustainable and that humanity effort to enhance its indigenous space the national legal sphere. Multilateral can therefore garner the benefits that capability, industry and independence. consensus will always be required for responsible uses of space give rise to. The development of national space essential, large and globally important law and policy will become more space issues. There is a lot at stake here. If our prevalent in the coming decade. actions lead to a ‘tragedy of the Will common interests drive commons’ situation in space, it will be As more countries and their actors seek regulation? the large and most powerful countries to be involved in space activity and the that will suffer the most. They are the use of space broadens through even Space has become increasingly most dependent on space, they have more diverse potential activities such dual-use, meaning that the historical the greatest competitive advantage as resource utilisation and on-orbit divide in the regulation of peaceful through their use of space, and they servicing, national space law are the – as opposed to non-peaceful - uses are therefore the most vulnerable mechanism by which countries regulate of space is no longer a reflection of if our ability to access space is those non-governmental entities and reality. The use of space for both civil compromised. In the end, of course, persons within their jurisdiction to and defence applications shines a we will all suffer, but the power of further promote responsible behaviour, different light on the need for agreed common interests, even among States while still accommodating innovation frameworks and norms of behaviour. that are not on friendly terms, must be and entrepreneurship. Despite obvious terrestrial tensions recognised so that we will not all be and geopolitical differences, the ‘lost in space’. major space nations generally have very significant common interests

Susmita Mohanty

“In the 21st century the space race will not be between nations, but between private companies.”

In the 21st century the space race will not be between nations, but between private companies. The private sector will play as prominent a role as government agencies in shaping the future of space exploration and applications for Earth. We’ve already seen this happen. A slew of start-ups worldwide have started to go beyond building CubeSats to developing sophisticated satellites, affordable rockets, green propulsion, new-age materials, 3D printing, space catapults, debris mitigation technologies and so on. These new entrants will define the way we use, explore, exploit, monitor and conserve space. By 2030, it’s likely that Virgin Galactic will have flown paying tourists on sub-orbital flights, while Blue Origin and SpaceX will attempted their debut missions to the Moon and Mars. Photo courtesy of Siddharth Das

advancements in quantum computing, Dr Susmita Mohanty is a spaceship some of the data processing can start designer and serial space happening onboard satellites before entrepreneur. She is the co-founder being beamed down to Earth. Private and CEO of Earth2Orbit, India’s companies will start offering in-orbit first private space start-up. She has cofounded and led two other debris capture, de-orbiting, graveyard- companies, MoonFront in San ing, and refuelling services. Francisco [2001-2007] and LIQUIFER In the coming decade, space-faring in Vienna [2004-ongoing]. Prior to nations and the United Nations Office turning entrepreneur, she did a brief for Outer Space Affairs (UN-OOSA) will stint at NASA and worked for the be compelled to upgrade the outdated International Space Station program at Boeing. 1967 Outer Space Treaty with the goal of mitigating the growing menace of space debris through enforceable laws. They will also address issues regarding space resource mining Nation states will also have made and ownership through a new considerable progress in the next ten international treaty that could override years. China will have landed humans unilateral legislation by USA and on the Moon and mastered soft-lunar- Luxembourg. Exclusive ownership landing through a series of robotic of communication bandwidth by missions that include recent successes private companies will probably attract in 2013 and 2019. India will have a mini- national security and global monopoly space station in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) concerns. Prominent companies will and will be getting acquainted with the run the risk of being broken up. challenges of living and working in LEO. Finally, as climate takes its toll on our Indian Space Research Organisation’s planet, our activities in space may help (ISRO) current lead as provider of us understand and reduce its impact. reliable, affordable, frequent access to Earth Observation (EO) Analytics will LEO for private satellite constellation mature and be used widely for diverse companies will be challenged by start- use cases including those related to ups from China and the USA. India’s climate-adaptation and climate-action. core focus will continue to be leveraging Cities and countries will leverage its space assets to improve the quality of The USA, Europe and China will lead ‘open-source’ satellite imagery from life of its 1.3 billion people. in supporting their space start-up ecosystems, while Japan and India will Landsat and Sentinel constellations By 2030, NASA won’t have to depend lag due to conservative national space to create their own ‘data cubes’ on the Russian Soyuz to ferry its policies and lack of an aggressive and applications. If done right, EO astronauts to LEO, but will have commercial mindset. Analytics can help propel humanity regularised the use of SpaceX’s Crew towards a planet-friendly and climate- Dragon. Russia’s leadership in the There are also huge issues that may smart future. This will be crucial in the space arena may well decline due emerge. By 2030, with the addition of years ahead. to funding issues. NASA will phase several new satellite constellations, out the International Space Station the menace of near-Earth orbital debris (ISS) in favour of its Artemis program will have peaked and the crisis will which will attempt to land humans mirror the current climate crisis on on the lunar South Pole. It is difficult Earth, worrisome and out-of-control. to say whether Russia and the non- Not only will these constellations US ISS partners – European Space further exacerbate the problem of Agency (ESA), Japan Aerospace orbiting debris, but will also likely kill Exploration Agency (JAXA), Canadian Earth-based astronomy as we know Space Agency (CSA) – can continue to it. On the positive side, affordable sustain the ISS after the focus shifts to internet access will become available Artemis. ESA, JAXA, CSA are also part planetwide. Power efficient high- of the American Artemis program. throughput satellites will become the new normal. With further

Tory Bruno “Towards a space economy.”

Let’s presume by 2030 we have a permanent presence on the Moon, Tory Bruno is a rocket scientist, infrastructure is in place and now who worked at Lockheed Martin there are real economic before becoming CEO of United Launch Alliance (ULA) in 2014. opportunities in space. ULA is the nation’s premier The landscape of space is changing. launch services provider and has successfully delivered more than An area once dominated by 135 missions to orbit with 100 government is now open to all percent mission success. businesses and organisations to invest. With a continually expanding window for commercial infrastructure due to improvements in technology, expect to see organisations over the next ten years dramatically increase their level of investment.

We already see space is now a launch to more bespoke defence and Everyone in the industry is talking contested domain and by 2030 security needs. As the government’s about Low Earth Orbit (LEO) expect a momentous shift into requirements become more specific, constellations or proliferated LEO – a countries viewing space with a lens business will no longer be able to term used to describe large numbers of heightened national security. recover the costs of these partnerships of small satellites in LEO. Initially Currently governments are working and governments will once again be it looked like this would be huge closely with business as providers of the primary funding partner. with thousands of small satellites in space technology. This collaborative constellations, each one requiring a When I move to the cislunar side, partnership originally saw investment separate launch with the potential of the funding ratio will revert because from government and a lot of replenishing, when one failed with of the tremendous natural resources innovation from industry. So the a micro launcher. But the economics that exist on the Moon and asteroids strictly military security missions we of this doesn’t really work. It is much within reach of the lunar surface. Here saw funded by governments moved better to initially launch more than we have the game changing potential into public private partnerships needed, so when they fail there is to manufacture goods in microgravity where the private sector supplied already another to take over. One of - goods unable to be manufactured a larger proportion of the funding the cool things about a proliferated here. The potential to unlock this value than government. LEO constellation is it’s inherently is enormous, so the infrastructure robust, but if two or three small As we move towards 2030, the defence needed for business to profit will satellites fail at once then we have a and security needs of governments will fuel a more profitable partnership for problem with a blank space circling force a shift, a separating of capabilities business with government. secured from the technologies of the Earth. Many start-ups saw this as commercial spacecraft and commercial a potential money maker with many

seeking venture capital to build micro launchers – at the last count more than 150 companies. We will need these, but probably only two or three, the rest just won’t get up and the venture capital lost. Finally without fuel in space, long haul space flight will be tricky. I predict in ten years, NASA will have a gateway station in orbit and permanent research facilities on the ground. The lunar poles are rich in deposits of water ice, some ten billion or so metric tons at each pole. Easily converted to rocket fuel (hydrogen and oxygen), with the opportunity to sell propellant in space. This is research well worth pursuing. Initially ‘fuel’ you buy in orbit will be as expensive as bringing it from Earth, but the right, primarily government funded, infrastructure will revolutionise this. This infrastructure is being jumpstarted by government with private enterprises co-investing, taking advantage of excess capability. Benefiting from the research and infrastructure to build capacity, fuel will be a commercial traded commodity, allowing more interplanetary research and empowering the future of ‘space mining’. This investment will be the catalyst for a growing economic future as we proceed towards a space economy.

“From space we can observe, of course, but we can also take action. We can be a strong player in the fight against climate change… aspiring to leave this planet and live on another is a poor excuse for not taking care of Earth.”

Jan Wörner Director General, European Space Agency

Jacob Hacker Space Industry Account Lead, KPMG Australia T: +61 2 9346 5886 E: [email protected]

James Mabbott National Lead Partner, KPMG Innovate, KPMG Australia T: +61 2 9335 8527 E: [email protected]

Sofia Lanfranconi Manager, KPMG Innovate, KPMG Australia T: +61 2 9273 5607 E: [email protected]

Acknowledgments: This report was very much a team effort. A special thank you to Linda Davies, Nathan Hassett, Nayanatara Samarasekera, Olivia Reeves, Liam Stow, Alana Kunz, Jacques Joubert, Sophie Finemore, Evie Murdoch, Peter Schroeder, Steve Beckey, James Arnott, Steve Cen, Zac Parkhill and Amy Congalton for their help in making it possible.

KPMG.com/au/30voicesonspace

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