Intra-Afghan Peace Talks: a Channel to Peace
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Strange Victory: a Critical Appraisal of Operation Enduring Freedom and the Afghanistan War
30 JANUARY 2002 RESEARCH MONOGRAPH #6 Strange Victory: A critical appraisal of Operation Enduring Freedom and the Afghanistan war Carl Conetta PROJECT ON DEFENSE ALTERNATIVES COMMONWEALTH INSTITUTE, CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS Contents Introduction 3 1. What has Operation Enduring Freedom accomplished? 4 1.1 The fruits of victory 4 1.1.1 Secondary goals 5 1.2 The costs of the war 6 1.2.1 The humanitarian cost of the war 7 1.2.2 Stability costs 7 2. Avoidable costs: the road not taken 9 3. War in search of a strategy 10 3.1 The Taliban become the target 10 3.2 Initial war strategy: split the Taliban 12 3.2.1 Romancing the Taliban 13 3.2.2 Pakistan: between the devil and the red, white, and blue 14 3.3 The first phase of the air campaign: a lever without a fulcrum 15 3.3.1 Strategic bombardment: alienating hearts and minds 15 3.4 A shift in strategy -- unleashing the dogs of war 17 4. A theater redefined 18 4.1 Reshuffling Afghanistan 19 4.2 Regional winners and losers 20 4.3 The structure of post-war Afghan instability 21 4.3.1 The Bonn agreement: nation-building or “cut and paste”? 22 4.3.2 Peacekeepers for Afghanistan: too little, too late 24 4.4 A new game: US and Afghan interests diverge 25 4.4.1 A failure to adjust 26 5. The tunnel at the end of the light 28 5.1 The path charted by Enduring Freedom 28 5.2 The triumph of expediency 29 5.3 The ascendancy of Defense 29 5.4 Realism redux 31 5.5 Bread and bombs 32 5.6 The fog of peace 34 Appendix 1. -
Leveraging the Taliban's Quest for International Recognition
Leveraging the Taliban’s Quest for International Recognition Afghan Peace Process Issues Paper March 2021 By Barnett R. Rubin Summary: As the United States tries to orchestrate a political settlement in conjunction with its eventual military withdrawal from Afghanistan, it has overestimated the role of military pressure or presence and underestimated the leverage that the Taliban’s quest for sanctions relief, recognition and international assistance provides. As the U.S. government decides on how and when to withdraw its troops, it and other international powers retain control over some of the Taliban’s main objectives — the removal of both bilateral and United Nations Security Council sanctions and, eventually, recognition of and assistance to an Afghan government that includes the Taliban. Making the most of this leverage will require coordination with the Security Council and with Afghanistan’s key neighbors, including Security Council members China, Russia and India, as well as Pakistan and Iran. In April 2017, in a meeting with an interagency team on board a military aircraft en route to Afghanistan, U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s new national security advisor, retired Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, dismissed the ongoing effort to negotiate a settlement with the Taliban: “The first step, the national security adviser said, was to turn around the trajectory of the conflict. The United States had to stop the Taliban’s advance on the battlefield and force them to agree to concessions in the process .... US talks with the Taliban would only succeed when the United States returned to a position of strength on the battlefield and was ‘winning’ against the insurgency.”1 1 Donati, Jessica. -
The Evolution of the Taliban
Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2008-06 The evolution of the Taliban Samples, Christopher A. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/4101 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS THE EVOLUTION OF THE TALIBAN by Shahid A. Afsar Christopher A. Samples June 2008 Thesis Advisor: Thomas H. Johnson Second Reader: Heather S. Gregg Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2008 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Evolution of the Taliban 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHORS Shahid A. Afsar and Christopher A. Samples 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. -
Four Years After the Fall of the Taliban, Afghans Express Both Vast Support for the Changes That Have Shaken Their Country
ABC NEWS POLL: LIFE IN AFGHANISTAN EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Wednesday, Dec. 7, 2005 Despite Deep Challenges in Daily Life, Afghans Express a Positive Outlook Four years after the fall of the Taliban, Afghans express both vast support for the changes that have shaken their country and remarkable optimism for the future, despite the deep challenges they face in economic opportunity, security and basic services alike. An ABC News poll in Afghanistan – the first national survey there sponsored by a news organization – underscores those challenges in a unique portrait of the lives of ordinary Afghans. Poverty is deep, medical care and other basic services lacking and infrastructure minimal. Nearly six in 10 have no electricity in their homes, and just three percent have it around the clock. Seven in 10 Afghan adults have no more than an elementary education; half have no schooling whatsoever. Half have household incomes under $500 a year. 100% Public Attitudes in Afghanistan ABC News poll 90% 87% 80% 77% 70% 60% 50% Afghanistan's current direction U.S.-led overthrow of the Taliban 40% 30% 20% 9% 10% 6% 0% Right direction Wrong direction Good thing Bad thing Yet despite these and other deprivations, 77 percent of Afghans say their country is headed in the right direction – compared with 30 percent in the vastly better-off United States. Ninety-one percent prefer the current Afghan government to the Taliban regime, and 87 percent call the U.S.-led overthrow of the Taliban good for their country. Osama bin Laden, for his part, is as unpopular as the Taliban; nine in 10 view him unfavorably. -
Joint Force Quarterly, Issue
Issue 100, 1st Quarter 2021 Countering Chinese Coercion Remotely Piloted Airstrikes Logistics Under Fire JOINT FORCE QUARTERLY ISSUE ONE HUNDRED, 1 ST QUARTER 2021 Joint Force Quarterly Founded in 1993 • Vol. 100, 1st Quarter 2021 https://ndupress.ndu.edu GEN Mark A. Milley, USA, Publisher VADM Frederick J. Roegge, USN, President, NDU Editor in Chief Col William T. Eliason, USAF (Ret.), Ph.D. Executive Editor Jeffrey D. Smotherman, Ph.D. Senior Editor and Director of Art John J. Church, D.M.A. Internet Publications Editor Joanna E. Seich Copyeditor Andrea L. Connell Book Review Editor Brett Swaney Creative Director Marco Marchegiani, U.S. Government Publishing Office Advisory Committee BrigGen Jay M. Bargeron, USMC/Marine Corps War College; RDML Shoshana S. Chatfield, USN/U.S. Naval War College; BG Joy L. Curriera, USA/Dwight D. Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy; Col Lee G. Gentile, Jr., USAF/Air Command and Staff College; Col Thomas J. Gordon, USMC/Marine Corps Command and Staff College; Ambassador John Hoover/College of International Security Affairs; Cassandra C. Lewis, Ph.D./College of Information and Cyberspace; LTG Michael D. Lundy, USA/U.S. Army Command and General Staff College; MG Stephen J. Maranian, USA/U.S. Army War College; VADM Stuart B. Munsch, USN/The Joint Staff; LTG Andrew P. Poppas, USA/The Joint Staff; RDML Cedric E. Pringle, USN/National War College; Brig Gen Michael T. Rawls, USAF/Air War College; MajGen W.H. Seely III/Joint Forces Staff College Editorial Board Richard K. Betts/Columbia University; Eliot A. Cohen/The Johns Hopkins University; Richard L. -
Suicide Attacks in Afghanistan: Why Now?
University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Political Science Department -- Theses, Dissertations, and Student Scholarship Political Science, Department of Spring 5-2013 SUICIDE ATTACKS IN AFGHANISTAN: WHY NOW? Ghulam Farooq Mujaddidi University of Nebraska-Lincoln Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/poliscitheses Part of the Comparative Politics Commons, and the International Relations Commons Mujaddidi, Ghulam Farooq, "SUICIDE ATTACKS IN AFGHANISTAN: WHY NOW?" (2013). Political Science Department -- Theses, Dissertations, and Student Scholarship. 25. https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/poliscitheses/25 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Political Science, Department of at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in Political Science Department -- Theses, Dissertations, and Student Scholarship by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. SUICIDE ATTACKS IN AFGHANISTAN: WHY NOW? by Ghulam Farooq Mujaddidi A THESIS Presented to the Faculty of The Graduate College at the University of Nebraska In Partial Fulfillment of Requirements For the Degree of Master of Arts Major: Political Science Under the Supervision of Professor Patrice C. McMahon Lincoln, Nebraska May, 2013 SUICIDE ATTACKS IN AFGHANISTAN: WHY NOW? Ghulam Farooq Mujaddidi, M.A. University of Nebraska, 2013 Adviser: Patrice C. McMahon Why, contrary to their predecessors, did the Taliban resort to use of suicide attacks in the 2000s in Afghanistan? By drawing from terrorist innovation literature and Michael Horowitz’s adoption capacity theory—a theory of diffusion of military innovation—the author argues that suicide attacks in Afghanistan is better understood as an innovation or emulation of a new technique to retaliate in asymmetric warfare when insurgents face arms embargo, military pressure, and have direct links to external terrorist groups. -
Lucy Morgan Edwards to the University of Exeter As a Thesis for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Politics by Publication, in March 2015
Western support to warlords in Afghanistan from 2001 - 2014 and its effect on Political Legitimacy Submitted by Lucy Morgan Edwards to the University of Exeter as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Politics by Publication, in March 2015 This thesis is available for Library use on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. I certifythat all the material in this thesis which is not my own work has been identified and that no material has previously been submitted or approved for the award of a degree by this or any other University. !tu ?"\J�� Signature. ... .......................L�Uv) ......... ...!} (/......................., ................................................ 0 1 ABSTRACT This is an integrative paper aiming to encapsulate the themes of my previously published work upon which this PhD is being assessed. This work; encompassing several papers and various chapters of my book are attached behind this essay. The research question, examines the effect of Western support to warlords on political legitimacy in the post 9/11 Afghan war. I contextualise the research question in terms of my critical engagement with the literature of strategists in Afghanistan during this time. Subsequently, I draw out themes in relation to the available literature on warlords, politics and security in Afghanistan. I highlight the value of thinking about these questions conceptually in terms of legitimacy. I then introduce the published work, summarising the focus of each paper or book chapter. Later, a ‘findings’ section addresses how the policy of supporting warlords has affected legitimacy through its impact on security and stability, the political settlement and ultimately whether Afghans choose to accept the Western-backed project in Afghanistan, or not. -
Envisioning a Comprehensive Peace Agreement for Afghanistan for More Information on This Publication, Visit
C O R P O R A T I O N LAUREL E. MILLER, JONATHAN S. BLAKE Envisioning a Comprehensive Peace Agreement for Afghanistan For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2937 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0407-7 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface In this report, we paint a detailed picture of a plausible final com- prehensive peace agreement for Afghanistan. The report includes analysis of realistic compromises, presented in the form of a complete peace agreement text. -
Conflict in Afghanistan II
Conflict in Afghanistan II 93 Number 881 March 2011 Volume Volume 93 Number 881 March 2011 Volume 93 Number 881 March 2011 Part 2: Law and humanitarian action Interview with Ms Fatima Gailani President of the Afghan Red Crescent Society Has the armed conflict in Afghanistan affected the rules on the conduct of hostilities? Robin Geiss and Michael Siegrist International law and armed non-state actors in Afghanistan Annyssa Bellal, Gilles Giacca and Stuart Casey-Maslen The Layha for the Mujahideen: an analysis of the code of conduct for the Taliban fighters under Islamic law Muhammad Munir Annex: The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The Layha [Code of Conduct] For Mujahids Combatants, not bandits: the status of rebels in Islamic law Sadia Tabassum Between a rock and a hard place: integration or independence of humanitarian action? Antonio Donini The International Committee of the Red Cross in Afghanistan: Conflict II in Afghanistan reasserting the neutrality of humanitarian action Fiona Terry The protective scope of Common Article 3: more than meets the eye Jelena Pejic Humanitarian debate: Law, policy, action www.icrc.org/eng/review Conflict in Cambridge Journals Online For further information about this journal please go to the journal web site at: ISSN 1816-3831 http://www.journals.cambridge.org/irc Afghanistan II Editorial Team Editor-in-Chief: Vincent Bernard The Review is printed in English and is Editorial assistant: Michael Siegrist published four times a year, in March, Publication assistant: June, September and December. Claire Franc Abbas Annual selections of articles are also International Review of the Red Cross published on a regional level in Arabic, Aim and scope 19, Avenue de la Paix Chinese, French, Russian and Spanish. -
Service Delivery in Taliban Influenced Areas…
SPECIAL REPORT NO. 465 | APRIL 2020 UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE www.usip.org Service Delivery in Taliban- Influenced Areas of Afghanistan By Scott S. Smith Contents “One Land, Two Rules” ................3 Emergence and Consolidation of the Insurgency ......................... 5 Education .......................................8 Health ............................................ 11 Electricity, Media, and Telecommunications .................. 15 Other Services ............................ 17 Conclusion ................................... 18 Students take an exam outdoors because their school had suffered extensive damage in fighting between Taliban and government forces. (Photo by Jim Huylebroek/New York Times) Summary • As the Taliban gained and con- • A study of several diverse districts • The Taliban initially opposed gov- solidated their hold over territo- across Afghanistan reveals that the ernment schools, but they later ry, they were forced to become Taliban leadership has attempted developed policies that allowed responsible for the well-being of to establish a certain uniformity in schools to function, as well as per- local communities. its governance of territory largely mitting girls to attend school to • Even as the Taliban leadership re- or partly under its control. age twelve. mained focused on military objec- • For example, while the Taliban have • Should there be a peace process, tives, in recent years they began to always allowed health officials to the Taliban and government will develop policies to deliver educa- work in their areas, in part because need to reconcile their differenc- tion and health services in particu- they too need these services, they es on service delivery in the areas lar, in some cases reversing earlier have taken increasing ownership of falling under their control. policies that denied these services. -
Post-Taliban Afghanistan and Regional Co-Operation in Central Asia
POST-TALIBAN AFGHANISTAN AND REGIONAL CO-OPERATION IN CENTRAL ASIA PETER TOMSEN Peter Tomsen was US Special Envoy and Ambassador to Afghanistan, 1989-92. He is currently US Ambassador in Residence, University of Nebraska at Omaha. A fresh geopolitical configuration in and around Afghanistan is emerging from the destruction of the Pakistan-supported Taliban-al-Qaeda regime. The remainder of this decade could witness the regional powers shift away from competition with each other for domination of Afghanistan. Conversely, a new innings of the centuries old ‘Great Game’ might unfold, repeating the all too familiar scenario of war, terrorism, drug trafficking, refugee outflows and instability in Afghanistan. The benefits would be substantial should Afghanistan’s neighbours choose the first alternative of regional co-operation in Central Asia. A stable Afghanistan could offer a Central Asian crossroads for regional and global commerce along a sweeping north-south and east-west axis. Global trade corridors intersecting at the centre of Eurasia would prove an economic boon to Iran, Pakistan, Russia and the Central Asian republics, as well as to Afghanistan itself. Pakistan – which cannot transit Afghanistan to market its products in Central Asia, the Caspian basin and China while instability persists in Afghanistan – would benefit the most. A shift from competition to co-operation among the major powers in Central Asia is by no means certain, notwithstanding the massive peace dividends. The historic rapprochement of regional states in post-World War II Western Europe and post-Vietnam Southeast Asia produced the enormously successful European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). -
Afghanistan Bibliography 2019
Afghanistan Analyst Bibliography 2019 Compiled by Christian Bleuer Afghanistan Analysts Network Kabul 3 Afghanistan Analyst Bibliography 2019 Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN), Kabul, Afghanistan This work is licensed under this creative commons license: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode The Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) is a non-profit, independent policy research organisation. It aims to bring together the knowledge, experience and drive of a large number of experts to better inform policy and to increase the understanding of Afghan realities. It is driven by engagement and curiosity and is committed to producing independent, high quality and research-based analysis on developments in Afghanistan. The institutional structure of AAN includes a core team of analysts and a network of contributors with expertise in the fields of Afghan politics, governance, rule of law, security, and regional affairs. AAN publishes regular in-depth thematic reports, policy briefings and comments. The main channel for dissemination of these publications is the AAN web site: https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/ Cover illustration: “City of Kandahar, with main bazaar and citadel, Afghanistan.” Lithograph by Lieutenant James Rattray, c. 1847. Coloured by R. Carrick. TABLE OF CONTENTS Bibliography Introduction and Guide ..................................................................... 6 1. Ethnic Groups ...................................................................................................