Youths' Views on the Afghan Peace Process-2
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Leveraging the Taliban's Quest for International Recognition
Leveraging the Taliban’s Quest for International Recognition Afghan Peace Process Issues Paper March 2021 By Barnett R. Rubin Summary: As the United States tries to orchestrate a political settlement in conjunction with its eventual military withdrawal from Afghanistan, it has overestimated the role of military pressure or presence and underestimated the leverage that the Taliban’s quest for sanctions relief, recognition and international assistance provides. As the U.S. government decides on how and when to withdraw its troops, it and other international powers retain control over some of the Taliban’s main objectives — the removal of both bilateral and United Nations Security Council sanctions and, eventually, recognition of and assistance to an Afghan government that includes the Taliban. Making the most of this leverage will require coordination with the Security Council and with Afghanistan’s key neighbors, including Security Council members China, Russia and India, as well as Pakistan and Iran. In April 2017, in a meeting with an interagency team on board a military aircraft en route to Afghanistan, U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s new national security advisor, retired Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, dismissed the ongoing effort to negotiate a settlement with the Taliban: “The first step, the national security adviser said, was to turn around the trajectory of the conflict. The United States had to stop the Taliban’s advance on the battlefield and force them to agree to concessions in the process .... US talks with the Taliban would only succeed when the United States returned to a position of strength on the battlefield and was ‘winning’ against the insurgency.”1 1 Donati, Jessica. -
Joint Force Quarterly, Issue
Issue 100, 1st Quarter 2021 Countering Chinese Coercion Remotely Piloted Airstrikes Logistics Under Fire JOINT FORCE QUARTERLY ISSUE ONE HUNDRED, 1 ST QUARTER 2021 Joint Force Quarterly Founded in 1993 • Vol. 100, 1st Quarter 2021 https://ndupress.ndu.edu GEN Mark A. Milley, USA, Publisher VADM Frederick J. Roegge, USN, President, NDU Editor in Chief Col William T. Eliason, USAF (Ret.), Ph.D. Executive Editor Jeffrey D. Smotherman, Ph.D. Senior Editor and Director of Art John J. Church, D.M.A. Internet Publications Editor Joanna E. Seich Copyeditor Andrea L. Connell Book Review Editor Brett Swaney Creative Director Marco Marchegiani, U.S. Government Publishing Office Advisory Committee BrigGen Jay M. Bargeron, USMC/Marine Corps War College; RDML Shoshana S. Chatfield, USN/U.S. Naval War College; BG Joy L. Curriera, USA/Dwight D. Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy; Col Lee G. Gentile, Jr., USAF/Air Command and Staff College; Col Thomas J. Gordon, USMC/Marine Corps Command and Staff College; Ambassador John Hoover/College of International Security Affairs; Cassandra C. Lewis, Ph.D./College of Information and Cyberspace; LTG Michael D. Lundy, USA/U.S. Army Command and General Staff College; MG Stephen J. Maranian, USA/U.S. Army War College; VADM Stuart B. Munsch, USN/The Joint Staff; LTG Andrew P. Poppas, USA/The Joint Staff; RDML Cedric E. Pringle, USN/National War College; Brig Gen Michael T. Rawls, USAF/Air War College; MajGen W.H. Seely III/Joint Forces Staff College Editorial Board Richard K. Betts/Columbia University; Eliot A. Cohen/The Johns Hopkins University; Richard L. -
Envisioning a Comprehensive Peace Agreement for Afghanistan for More Information on This Publication, Visit
C O R P O R A T I O N LAUREL E. MILLER, JONATHAN S. BLAKE Envisioning a Comprehensive Peace Agreement for Afghanistan For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2937 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0407-7 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface In this report, we paint a detailed picture of a plausible final com- prehensive peace agreement for Afghanistan. The report includes analysis of realistic compromises, presented in the form of a complete peace agreement text. -
Service Delivery in Taliban Influenced Areas…
SPECIAL REPORT NO. 465 | APRIL 2020 UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE www.usip.org Service Delivery in Taliban- Influenced Areas of Afghanistan By Scott S. Smith Contents “One Land, Two Rules” ................3 Emergence and Consolidation of the Insurgency ......................... 5 Education .......................................8 Health ............................................ 11 Electricity, Media, and Telecommunications .................. 15 Other Services ............................ 17 Conclusion ................................... 18 Students take an exam outdoors because their school had suffered extensive damage in fighting between Taliban and government forces. (Photo by Jim Huylebroek/New York Times) Summary • As the Taliban gained and con- • A study of several diverse districts • The Taliban initially opposed gov- solidated their hold over territo- across Afghanistan reveals that the ernment schools, but they later ry, they were forced to become Taliban leadership has attempted developed policies that allowed responsible for the well-being of to establish a certain uniformity in schools to function, as well as per- local communities. its governance of territory largely mitting girls to attend school to • Even as the Taliban leadership re- or partly under its control. age twelve. mained focused on military objec- • For example, while the Taliban have • Should there be a peace process, tives, in recent years they began to always allowed health officials to the Taliban and government will develop policies to deliver educa- work in their areas, in part because need to reconcile their differenc- tion and health services in particu- they too need these services, they es on service delivery in the areas lar, in some cases reversing earlier have taken increasing ownership of falling under their control. policies that denied these services. -
Afghanistan Bibliography 2019
Afghanistan Analyst Bibliography 2019 Compiled by Christian Bleuer Afghanistan Analysts Network Kabul 3 Afghanistan Analyst Bibliography 2019 Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN), Kabul, Afghanistan This work is licensed under this creative commons license: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode The Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) is a non-profit, independent policy research organisation. It aims to bring together the knowledge, experience and drive of a large number of experts to better inform policy and to increase the understanding of Afghan realities. It is driven by engagement and curiosity and is committed to producing independent, high quality and research-based analysis on developments in Afghanistan. The institutional structure of AAN includes a core team of analysts and a network of contributors with expertise in the fields of Afghan politics, governance, rule of law, security, and regional affairs. AAN publishes regular in-depth thematic reports, policy briefings and comments. The main channel for dissemination of these publications is the AAN web site: https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/ Cover illustration: “City of Kandahar, with main bazaar and citadel, Afghanistan.” Lithograph by Lieutenant James Rattray, c. 1847. Coloured by R. Carrick. TABLE OF CONTENTS Bibliography Introduction and Guide ..................................................................... 6 1. Ethnic Groups ................................................................................................... -
Fragile Future: the Human Cost of Conflict in Afghanistan
Humanitarian Action at the Frontlines: Field Analysis Series Fragile Future: The human cost of conflict in Afghanistan December 2018 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3291982 Acknowledgments The authors would like to share deep appreciation to all individuals and organizations interviewed in Afghanistan for this research. A particular acknowledgement is due to Dr. Juliette Fournot for her inspirational guidance and valuable support throughout the research and writing process. Gratitude is also due to Rob Grace and Meredith Blake for offering their useful editorial comments. Finally, the authors also express recognition of the Afghan communities living in violence and insecurity every day. About the Authors This report was completed by a research team at the Advanced Training Program on Humanitarian Action (ATHA) at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative. Emmanuel Tronc (Senior Research Analyst) served as the field researcher and drafter of this report. Anaïde Nahikian (Program Manager) contributed to both the research and writing. This research is supported by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida). About the Humanitarian Action at the Frontlines: Field Analysis Series The Humanitarian Action at the Frontlines: Field Analysis Series is an initiative of the Advanced Training Program on Humanitarian Action (ATHA) at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative. It aims to respond to the demand across the humanitarian sector for critical context analysis, dedicated case studies, and sharing of practice in humanitarian negotiation. This series is oriented toward generating an evidence base of professional approaches and reflections on current dilemmas in this area. Our field analysts and researchers engage in field interviews across sectors at the country-level and inter-agency dialogue at the regional level, providing comprehensive and analytical content to support the capacity of humanitarian professionals in overcoming critical challenges of humanitarian negotiation and access in relevant frontline contexts. -
Understanding the Complexities of the Afghan Peace Process
APRIL 2018 Understanding the Complexities of the Afghan Peace Process VINAY KAURA Understanding the Complexities of the Afghan Peace Process VINAY KAURA ABOUT THE AUTHOR Vinay Kaura, PhD, is an Assistant Professor at the Department of International Affairs and Security Studies, Sardar Patel University of Police, Security and Criminal Justice, Rajasthan. He is also the Coordinator at the Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies in Jaipur. His research interests include India’s neighbourhood policy, especially on the western front; Afghanistan-Pakistan relations; counter-terrorism and counter- insurgency; and conflict resolution in Kashmir. He can be reached at [email protected]. ISBN : 978-81-937032-9-8 © 2018 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from ORF. Understanding the Complexities of the Afghan Peace Process ABSTRACT Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani’s bold peace offer to the Taliban has aroused hopes of peace in the country torn by war for many years now. In a sweeping proposal made at the Kabul Process conference in February, President Ghani offered a ceasefire, the removal of sanctions, release of prisoners, the recognition of the Taliban as a political party, the conduct of fresh elections, and a review of the constitution. He repeated his offer in March during a conference held at Tashkent. Launching the voter registration process in the middle of April, he again asked the Taliban to take part in the forthcoming district and parliamentary elections. Ghani has demonstrated remarkable boldness and vision for bringing about a positive shift in the structure of the Afghan conflict. -
Iran's Evolving Relationship with an Afghanistan in Transition
POLICY BRIEF All Quiet on the Eastern Front? Iran's Evolving Relationship with an Afghanistan in Transition Timor Sharan, Andrew Watkins The planned U.S. military withdrawal has triggered significant uncertainty about Afghanistan's stability and security and the international community's future engagement in the region. In a post-withdrawal scenario, which conditions are anticipated for development and security cooperation in Kabul, Tehran, and European capitals? What is Iran's expectation, position and leverage in Afghanistan? In which areas is trilateral cooperation possible and where are common goals likely to be achieved? Afghanistan is one of Iran's most important neighbours, response to the planned U.S. military withdrawal, Iran may well not only because of its long-shared border and rich cultural, pursue a more ambitious Afghanistan strategy. By continuing to historical and linguistic ties but also on account of geopolitics cosy up to Kabul, Iran could simultaneously leverage its softer and economic exchange.1 Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, power with several different Afghan actors and even ramp up Iran's approach to Afghanistan has been far more prudent support for local armed proxies, potentially tipping the country's than its foreign relations extending westward. Still, it has often fragile political equilibrium. been overshadowed by hostile relations with the U.S., to an extent even during the country's Soviet invasion. After the 1998 Iran's Diverse Leverage in Afghanistan murder of Iranian diplomats in the northern city of Mazar-e Sharif, Tehran deescalated a crisis that nearly led to war with Since 2001, Iran has maintained and extended its influence the Taliban, then ruling in Kabul. -
February 2012 | VOLUME - 5 ISSUE - 31
1 Monthly Risk Summary Monthly Risk Summary Afghanistan February 2012 | VOLUME - 5 ISSUE - 31 2-5 Executive Summary 53-71 Political 119 Afghanistan Map Situation SIMS Incident Health & Natural Security Advice & 6-28 Reporting 72-96 Hazards 120 Capabilities 29-36 Crime Topics 97-109 Business News Infrastructural & 37-52 Security News 110-117 Reconstruction Development February 2012 2 Monthly Risk Summary Executive Summary RISK SNAPSHOT Sims Incidents Criminial Activity Security Situation Political Situation Health & Natural Hazards Winter took its toll on the lives of Afghans as people perished in many parts of the country due to cold weather and avalanches. Heavy snowfall led to avalanch- es and blocked roads especially in Northern provinces in Afghanistan. Heavy rain- fall and floods added to the misery of Afghans. The heat of the Quran burning issue spread across the nation, making the lives of Afghan citizens even more miserable. Even though U.S authorities, including U.S President Barrack Obama, apologised on 21 February regarding the burning at a U.S military base of religious texts, which contained extremist contents, violent demonstrations marred the lives of many Afghans. That said, the NATO force pullout plan and handing over of the duties to Afghan forces was the main talking point of the month. Pullout Plans As part of the withdrawal plan, U.S Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on 1 Feb announced the intention to hand the lead combat role to Afghan Forces next year. This is a significant development for Afghanistan, considering the controversial U.S-led night raids which have caused much controversy. -
Bringing Multilateralism Back In: Ending the War in Afghanistan Is Not a One-Nation Job
Bringing Multilateralism Back in: Ending the War in Afghanistan is Not a One-Nation Job Afghan Peace Process Issues Paper March 2021 By: Neamat Nojumi and Thomas J. Barfield Summary: The United States’ unilateral deal with the Taliban in February 2020 needs to be expanded if it is to achieve success. Because the war in Afghanistan was never purely a domestic one, only a multilateral international agreement can end it and simultaneously empower Afghan stakeholders to determine their country’s future governance. A dual-track United Nations-led mediation platform, bolstered by a collaboration between Washington and Brussels, offers the best means to achieve this end. At the international and regional level, its goal would be conflict management: to end outside support for any faction unwilling to take part in the domestic peace process and to pledge support for any final negotiated peace agreement acceptable to a majority of the Afghan people. Since neither the Afghan government nor the Taliban can win a war or dictate the structure of a future constitutional order without such outside support, this would lay the groundwork for lasting conflict resolution within Afghanistan itself. The need for a multilateral forum is urgent because the current agreement focuses on the terms of departure of U.S. forces and fails to address the most significant local and regional priorities needed to bring about a lasting peace. Without the resolution of these issues, Afghanistan could fall into a new civil war like that of the 1990s once international troops withdraw. Former U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s administration did not condition the departure of U.S. -
Nagaland: Elusive Reconciliations and Lingering Peace Process
SOCIETY FOR THE STUDY OF PEACE AND CONFLICT 16 SEPTEMBER 2020 South Asia Conflict Monitor monthly newsletter on terrorism, violence and armed conflict… CONTENT Nagaland: Elusive Reconciliations and Lingering Peace Process Country Briefs & Nagaland: Elusive Reconciliations and News Roundup Lingering Peace Process [August 2020] NIHAR R NAYAK AFGHANISTAN: 3-5 BANGLADESH: 5-7 Despite substantial progress in the peace talks leadership, interests and between New Delhi and the armed groups of external influences. The INDIA: 7-9 Nagaland over the last five years, there are still National Socialist Council NEPAL: 09-10 uncertainties over finalising a permanent peace of Nagaland (IM) was PAKISTAN: 10-11 agreement. The second round of negotiations over formed on January 31, SRI LANKA: 12 a peace agreement with the Naga insurgent groups, 1980, by Isak Chishi Swu, including the NSCN-IM (Isak-Muivah), was Thuingaleng Muivah and initiated by New Delhi in 2015. But that appears to S. S. Khaplang. They be in trouble since October 31, 2019. A fresh wanted to establish a informal attempt by the Union Government in this 'Greater regard with the NSCN-IM in August 2020 in New Nagaland' ('Nagalim' or Delhi also has not moved in the right direction. the People's Republic of Nagaland) based on Mao While the central government has managed to Tse Tung's model. This outfit witnessed a split by address the grievances of other seven illegal Naga Khaplang faction in April 1988. In 1997, the armed groups, who are willing to sign a permanent NSCN (IM) signed a ceasefire agreement and peace agreement, the NSCN-IM, one of the largest, started a dialogue with the Union Government. -
Candidates Spar in Second Showdown
WWW.TEHRANTIMES.COM I N T E R N A T I O N A L D A I L Y 8 Pages Price 50,000 Rials 1.00 EURO 4.00 AED 43rd year No.13962 Wednesday JUNE 9, 2021 Khordad 19, 1400 Shawwal 28, 1442 Tehran rejects Grossi’s Vahid Amiri misses 10 major transport Palestinians say ready to assessment on Iran- matches against projects to be inaugurated react if Israel plots against IAEA cooperation Page 3 Cambodia, Iraq Page 3 by late August Page 4 al-Aqsa Mosque Page 5 Zarif urges U.S. to change course TEHRAN – Iranian Foreign Minister diplomat said, “It remains unclear Mohammad Javad Zarif has reacted to whether Iran is willing and prepared the claims of his American counterpart to do what it needs to do come back about the necessary measures to fully into compliance. So, we’re still testing resume the nuclear agreement. that proposition.” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken Zarif responded to Blinken’s remarks on Monday said that the U.S. still does by saying that it’s was also unclear for not know whether Iran is ready to resume Iran whether the Biden administration compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal, and Blinken are ready to break with the officially known as the Joint Comprehen- pressure campaign launched by the Trump sive Plan of Action (JCPOA). administration and the former U.S. sec- Speaking before two congressional retary of state, Mike Pompeo. committees on Monday, the top U.S. Continued on page 3 Dushanbe hosts 14th meeting of Iran- Tajikistan Joint Economic Committee TEHRAN - The 14th meeting of Iran-Tajik- the two countries and said: “Consider- istan Joint Economic Committee kicked off ing the will of the top leaders of the two on Monday in Tajikistan, IRNA reported.