1 Monthly Risk Summary Monthly Risk Summary Afghanistan February 2012 | VOLUME - 5 ISSUE - 31 2-5 Executive Summary 53-71 Political 119 Afghanistan Map Situation SIMS Incident Health & Natural Security Advice & 6-28 Reporting 72-96 Hazards 120 Capabilities 29-36 Crime Topics 97-109 Business News Infrastructural & 37-52 Security News 110-117 Reconstruction Development February 2012 2 Monthly Risk Summary Executive Summary RISK SNAPSHOT Sims Incidents Criminial Activity Security Situation Political Situation Health & Natural Hazards Winter took its toll on the lives of Afghans as people perished in many parts of the country due to cold weather and avalanches. Heavy snowfall led to avalanch- es and blocked roads especially in Northern provinces in Afghanistan. Heavy rain- fall and floods added to the misery of Afghans. The heat of the Quran burning issue spread across the nation, making the lives of Afghan citizens even more miserable. Even though U.S authorities, including U.S President Barrack Obama, apologised on 21 February regarding the burning at a U.S military base of religious texts, which contained extremist contents, violent demonstrations marred the lives of many Afghans. That said, the NATO force pullout plan and handing over of the duties to Afghan forces was the main talking point of the month. Pullout Plans As part of the withdrawal plan, U.S Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on 1 Feb announced the intention to hand the lead combat role to Afghan Forces next year. This is a significant development for Afghanistan, considering the controversial U.S-led night raids which have caused much controversy. However, on 19 Febru- ary U.S senators disregarded Karzai’s demand to curb the night raids as that, according to them, would put American lives in danger. February 2012 Increasing Slight Increase Stable Slight Decrease Decreasing Trend 3 Monthly Risk Summary Executive Summary The U.S and Afghan officials, while discussing a pact to allow several thousand troops to stay in Afghanistan to train forces, decided to negotiate on detention and night raids for a later date. Karzai further extended the handover of Bagram Prison deadline to 9 March, the non-cooperation by American personnel was cited as the reason. On 4 February, the U.S announced the decision Elite Units will be deployed for counter insurgency purposes in Afghanistan, while on 7 February NATO assured Afghans that foreign troops will fight ‘shoulder to shoulder’ with until the end of 2014. Afghan soldiers took over new patrol base on 20 February in Lashkar Gah district, Helmand province, built with the assistance of UK forces. U.S commanders, on 24 February, decided to cut 10,000 marines from southern provinces. Meanwhile, Afghans who fled to UK while serving in the Afghan Army, are being hired to train soldiers on how to take on the Taliban. The killing of NATO soldiers by Afghan counterparts, feared to be a result of insur- gent infiltration in the Afghan army, was put to rest by U.S officials on 1 February, saying that all the attacks were due to personal reasons. However, on 14 Febru- ary Obama personally ordered an investigation into such killings and measures to prevent infiltration. Italian intelligence reported on 27 February a higher threat against their troops in western regions controlled by them. A report on 2 February said that Afghans mistrust of NATO and Afghan soldiers are growing and that they are turning more to the Taliban in recent times, and thus the Taliban are growing stronger, but that jihad is finding fewer takers in foreign lands due to US drones attacks and lack of funds. Peace Initiative Reports came out that U.S officials had initiated peace talks with the Taliban in Qatar at the end of last month. Meanwhile, Pak PM on 7 February called for an Afghan-led reconciliation process during his two day visit to Qatar. More develop- ments for the peace initiative followed when Pakistan and Russia voiced their support on 9 February. Karzai said on 16 Feburary that the U.S, Afghan government and the Taliban were in secret talks to search for a peace settlement. On 21 February, Karzai invited Taliban leaders for direct talks and urged Pakistan to facilitate the negotiation toward ending the decade long war. Harboring of insurgents near the Pak-Afghan border in safe sanctuaries and creating problems in the Afghan peace process February 2012 was stressed by CIA on 3 February. 4 Monthly Risk Summary Executive Summary The Taliban was told by Saudi Arabia on 18 February to lay down arms and re- nounce al Qaeda as a precondition for Saudi –led peace talks. Pakistan decided to host Afghan and Iranian leaders on 15 February for a counter terrorism summit. Russia and France announced that they will co-preside Vienna conference on Afghanistan. Afghan MP stressed 5 February the importance for an open peace dialogue involving civil society and no secret talks with anti-government armed groups. The Turkmen President assured the head of UN Assistance mission in Afghani- stan that he would have complete support for the peace initiative and stabilization of the situation in Afghanistan on 26 February. Quran Burning NATO personnel working in Afghan ministries in the Kabul area were recalled on 25 February in response to the killing of two American service members by an Afghan security official in the ministry. UN officials in Kabul were relocated on 28 February for a limited period of time following the incident. Meanwhile, U.S Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on 29 February reaffirmed the Obama administration’s determination to persist in seeking a stable government in Afghanistan. Following the incidents related to Quran burning, Afghan ministers cancelled their visit to the U.S for consultation with other ministers to quell the violence and protect the U.S troops. Setbacks 22 children below the age of five froze to death in two refugee camps in Kabul even as government was taking measures to support the homeless. A report by Amnesty International on 23 February said that 400 Afghans are displaced every day, and about half a million Afghans who fled fighting are abandoned to starva- tion and death. In a shocking incident, would-be child suicide bombers who were pardoned months earlier were again arrested as they were preparing for bombings. These children were supplied with drugs and were told they would be unharmed by the blast. February 2012 Eight Afghan youths mistaken to be insurgents were killed in ISAF air strike on 15 February. Though ISAF said that the attacks were carried out in coordination with the Afghan police, the police denied any links. 5 Monthly Risk Summary Executive Summary General A national Holiday commemorating the withdrawal of Soviet troops ending a de- cade long conflict was designated on 15 February. On 6 February, Canadian PM welcomed the 100 Afghan interpretors who risked their lives to help Canadian forces in Afghanistan, for a second chance to settle in Canada. This development will provide safety to them as their lives in Afghan are always at risk from Taliban attack. Support On 21 February Japan contributed $20m for support long-term basic literacy training for the Afghan National Security Forces through the NATO-run Afghan National Army Trust Fund. The U.S continued its support to the reconstruction of Afghanistan through USAID by dedicating $800m for agriculture, health and train- ing sectors. Afghan minister signed an agreement with USAID to use 50% of the American aid within two years. February 2012 6 Monthly Risk Summary SIMS Incident Reporting IED 1 February An Estonian soldier was seriously injured in southern Helmand province on Wednesday morning, bringing the number of wounded Estcoy-13 soldiers to eight. At least seven people were killed and injured following an explosion in Kapisa province. The officials further added the incident took place after a car packed with explosives went off in Nejrab district of Kapisa province. Two Afghan police service members were killed and three others were injured in an explosion at Shindand district of western Herat province on Wednesday. 2 February A roadside bomb killed two private guards and wounded two others in Gereshk district of Helmand province. A Surf vehicle of a private security company struck a mine in Noorzai area at approximately 08:30hrs. February 2012 An Afghan civilian was killed in an improvised explosive device blast in Dasht Sheikh area, Ghorian district of Herat province on Thursday. An IED went off on a tractor vehicle in leaving its driver dead. 7 Monthly Risk Summary SIMS Incident Reporting 3 February One Afghan National Army (ANA) soldier was killed and three others were injured in a blast in southeastern Khost province. 5 February A car bomb attack on police headquarters in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar has killed at least nine people, including five policemen. Some 19 others were wounded in the blast in a car park outside the police building. At least three Afghan national army soldiers were injured following roadside bomb explo- sion in Camp Chena area, Maiwand district of Kandahar province. One child was killed and three others wounded when an explosives-rigged motorcycle exploded in the Nawabad village of Deh Rawood district, central province of Uruzgan. A soldier was killed and ten others wounded in an explosion. A homemade bomb ex- ploded next to a Pakistani military vehicle in the Alizai area of the northwestern Kurram tribal region, near Afghanistan border. 7 February A blast ripped through Liaquat Bazaar near Junction square in Quetta late, injuring a security guard and destroying up to 20 stores. However, no casualties were reported. 9 February Two policemen were killed in a bomb blast in Lashkar Gah, the capital of southern Helmand province.