Daily Situation Report 31 October 2010 Safety and Security Issues Relevant to Sssi Personnel and Clients

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DAILY SITUATION REPORT 31 OCTOBER 2010 SAFETY AND SECURITY ISSUES RELEVANT TO SSSI PERSONNEL AND CLIENTS

STANDING THREAT ASSESSMENT (KABUL): Threat reports continue to indicate that insurgents aspire to conduct coordinated attacks in Kabul City, as such the threat remains extant. Recent threat reporting has also indicated likely reconnaissance of areas and businesses frequented by members of the international community. Although no significant attacks were carried out in Kabul during the recent parliamentary election, or indeed after the event, the recent reduction in physical security in the city may provide insurgents with exploitable opportunities to carry out attacks. Suicide and complex attacks remain the preferred choice for insurgents in order to gain maximum casualties figures and the associated high degree of media attention. It remains possible that insurgents will still seek to undermine the democratic process by conducting high profile attacks when the final results are announced at the end of October. It remains prudent for international agencies in the Kabul area to maintain a high degree of security vigilance. Sporadic IDF attacks in the city centre are to be expected. Any attacks are likely to consist of between one and four 107 mm rockets launched towards the city centre.

Incidents of intimidation, executions by insurgents and targeting of government officials are increasing throughout the country. It seems to be a form of revenge by insurgents as they have lost more than 300 insurgent commanders over the past few months due to successful IM/ANSF operations.

MAJOR COUNTRY WIDE EVENTS

Herat: Influencial local Tribal Leader killed by insurgents

Nangarhar: Five attacks against Border Police OPs

Helmand: Five local residents murdered

Threat Reports Received Last 3 Days

28 Oct: Herat: Suicide attack threat against hotel and IM/ANSF movements

30 Oct: Laghman: Kidnap threat against ANSF members on route 29 Oct: Farah: Suicide Attack threat against IM & ANSF vehicles on MSR 28 Oct: Kabul: Kidnap Threat against engineers at Naglu Dam Project

30 Oct: Kabul: VBIED threat against Indian Embassy – stolen diplomatic vehicle

30 Oct: Farah: IDF Threat against the Farah City

BREAKDOWN OF INCIDENTS REPORTED FOR AFGHANISTAN IN SSSI DSR FOR PERIOD 30 TO 31 OCTOBER 2010

Table illustrating the number of Killed and Wounded, Captured and Arrested as per the reporting’s of the SSSI DSR.

IM ANSF PSC/FN LN INSURGENTS

KIA WIA MIA KIA WIA MIA KIA WIA MIA KIA WIA MIA KIA WIA ARR

2-Oct 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 20 2 7 0 14 3 Oct 0 0 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 54 12 15 4 Oct 1 4 0 8 4 2 0 0 0 20 23 4 83 13 35 5 Oct 0 11 0 6 6 0 2 2 0 13 49 2 7 5 4 6 Oct 0 9 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 5 20 1 10 0 13 7 Oct 1 0 0 1 8 0 1 1 0 10 3 12 20 0 27 9 Oct 1 4 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 15 20 4 18 1 0 10 Oct 4 4 0 3 13 0 1 1 0 14 25 4 20 0 2 11 Oct 0 0 0 5 9 1 1 2 0 12 13 1 13 6 13 12 Oct 1 14 0 13 21 9 1 4 0 15 16 2 38 11 19 13 Oct 2 13 0 1 2 2 0 1 0 5 4 0 18 0 3 14 Oct 0 7 0 6 5 0 0 1 0 33 6 0 36 0 18 16 Oct 4 3 0 9 1 0 0 3 0 21 4 0 38 5 1 17 Oct 1 2 0 4 4 0 0 0 0 7 4 0 8 10 0 18 Oct 0 0 0 0 1 0 9 0 0 7 8 0 6 1 19 19 Oct 1 4 0 6 3 0 11 1 0 4 2 3 25 0 16 20 Oct 1 7 0 9 20 0 1 5 0 18 31 4 47 16 43 21 Oct 3 5 0 8 15 1 1 0 0 21 42 1 34 10 40 23 Oct 1 6 0 7 15 2 4 2 0 24 27 1 26 0 43 24 Oct 0 6 0 1 9 2 3 6 0 13 2 1 103 3 3 25 Oct 4 9 0 1 5 0 0 1 0 5 18 5 23 1 18 26 Oct 0 14 0 9 7 0 0 0 0 22 11 5 24 5 35 27 Oct 1 8 0 2 5 0 0 2 0 5 6 4 25 4 9 28 Oct 1 3 0 5 1 0 4 6 0 6 16 0 77 1 22 30 Oct 0 9 0 16 19 1 0 0 0 2 0 3 36 1 23 31 Oct 0 8 0 6 9 0 1 0 0 11 6 3 32 10 8 Oct-10 27 142 0 126 177 20 39 39 0 302 371 59 796 105 435

(Kindly note that these figures are from the SSSI DSR and are not official statistics and may differ from those released by IM or other agencies or organizations.)

SECURITY INCIDENTS REPORTED FOR PERIOD 30 TO 31 OCT 10

CENTRAL REGION

Ordinance Recovered: 26 Oct, Kabul Province, Shakardara District – During the morning the Police located and seized a cache consisting of an AP mine and nine mortar bombs in the Jangalak Village.

Crime: 26 Oct, Kabul Province, Kabul City, Police District #9 – Just after misnight the Police stopped and searched a vehicle in a Police Checkpoint in the Pole Charkhi Area. The Police arrested four people and seized 65 Kg of narcotics.

UXO: 27 Oct, Kabul Province, Kabul City, Police District #1 – During the day the Police located and removed an old UXO in the Puli Mohmott Khan Area.

Insurgency: 30 Oct, Kabul Province, Kabul City – Reportedly insurgent stole a 2006 model Toyota Corolla displaying a license plate #CD-13-7 from the Russian Embassy. According to the report the insurgents are planning to rig the vehicle as a VBIED to target the Indian Embassy.

Insurgency: 30 Oct, Kabul Province, Surobi District – During the morning insurgents deployed an ambush in the Shina Area to target IM elements that attended the opening of a school.

Ambush: 26 Oct, Kapisa Province, Tagab District – Just after midnight insurgents ambushed an IM patrol on a district road in the Lando Khel Area. No casualties were reported.

Attack: 29 Oct, Kapisa Province, Tagab District – During the day insurgents attacked the joint IM/ANSF Force that is deployed at a construction site with RPGs and SAF. The newly deployed checkpoint was attacked from multiple firing positions. IM Air Assets were deployed and an unknown number of insurgent casualties were inflicted. No other casualties were reported.

Ordinance Recovered: 26 Oct, Parwan Province, Bagram District – Late during the afternoon the Police located two rockets in the Mirzajalal Area. The rockets were primed and ready to be launched. An IM EOD Team later defused the rockets.

Ambush: 26 Oct, Wardak Province, Saydabad District – During the morning insurgents ambushed a PSC escorted IM contracted logistics convoy in the Aqa Khel Area. One PSC member was killed and one fuel tanker was set ablaze.

IED: 27 Oct, Wardak Province, Saydabad District – During the morning the Police located an IED near the District Administrative Center. An IM EOD Team later defused the device.

Operations: 27 Oct, Wardak Province, Chak District – During the afternoon the Police arrested an insurgent in the Alasang Area and seized his handgun.

Operations: 26 Oct, Logar Province, Baraki Barak District – Just after midnight the IM launched an operation in the Deh Mughlon Area and arrested two insurgents.

Operations: 27 Oct, Logar Province, Puli Alam District – During the day the Police arrested a suspected insurgent near the District Administrative Center.

Ambush: 27 Oct, Logar Province, Muhammad Agha District – During the afternoon insurgents ambushed an IM convoy in the Zarghun Shah Area. No casualties were reported.

Ambush: 26 Oct, Ghazni Province, Andar District – During the day insurgents ambushed an IM convoy with SAF in the Band Sardeh Area. The insurgents fled the scene after a brief firefight. No casualties were reported.

Attack: 26 Oct, Ghazni Province, Waghaz District – During the day insurgents attacked a Police Checkpoint near the District Administrative Center with SAF. The insurgents fled the scene after a brief firefight. No casualties were reported.

Attack: 26 Oct, Ghazni Province, Zana Khan District – During the day insurgents attacked a Police Checkpoint near the District Administrative Center with SAF. The insurgents fled the scene after a brief firefight. No casualties were reported.

IED: 26 Oct, Ghazni Province, Ghazni District – During the day the IM located and defused two IEDs in the Mula Noh Baba Area.

IDF Attack: 27 Oct, Ghazni Province, Gero District – During the day insurgents launched two rockets towards an IM installation in the district. The rockets impacted in the vicinity. No casualties were reported.

Operations: 27 Oct, Ghazni Province, Gelan District – During the day the ANA arrested an insurgent near the District Administrative Center and seized his AK-47.

Operations: 27 Oct, Ghazni Province, Andar District – During the night a joint IM/NDS operation was launched in the Seni Area. One insurgent was killed, and one more insurgent was arrested.

Murder: 28 Oct, Ghazni Province, Ab Band District – During the day the Police located two bodies of Police members who were killed by insurgents in the Azghar Khel Area.

WESTERN REGION

Insurgency: 30 Oct, Faryab Province, Qaisar District – Reportedly a group of approx 10 insurgents deployed to the Sanjetak Pauan Village with the aim to attack a Police Checkpoint in the vicinity of the village.

Insurgency: 30 Oct, Faryab Province, Qaisar District – Reportedly a group of approx 60 insurgents deployed to the Chataki and Khwajah Villages with the aim to attack Police Checkpoints.

IED: 27 Oct, Badghis Province, Murghab District – During the afternoon the a joint IM/ANSF deployment located and defused three IEDs.

Murder: 28 Oct, Herat Province, Shindand District – During the night of 28/29 Oct insurgents shot and killed an influential local tribal leader in the Zerkoh Area. Remark: The IM/ANSF succeeded in eliminating a high number of insurgent leaders over the past few weeks. It is likely that the insurgents turned their focus in order to eliminate tribal leaders that are pro-government and government officials as a form of reprisal.

IDF Attack: 29 Oct, Herat Province, Shindand District – During the night of 29/30 Oct insurgents launched an undisclosed number of rockets towards the Shindand Airport. The attack came from the east and the rockets impacted outside the airport. No casualties or damage were reported.

Operations: 26 Oct, Ghor Province, Saghar District – During the night the Police launched a search operation in the Okhori Village and arrested an insurgent commander. The Police seized two AK-47s with ammunition.

Insurgency: 30 Oct, Farah Province, Bakwah District – Reportedly a group of approx 50 insurgents under the command of three known insurgent commanders deployed to the Dashtak and Sultan Villages with the aim to launch an IDF attack against the Farah City.

NORTHERN REGION

Insurgency: 29 Oct, Jawzjan Province, Khwaja Du Koh District – Reportedly a group of insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander deployed to the Afghania Village via the Kapa Zar Area with approx 30 motorcycles. They joined up with insurgents in the area, and are planning sabotage operations against the electrical powerlines between the Jawzjan and Sari Pal Provinces.

Insurgency: 29 Oct, Sari Pal Province, Sayad District – Reportedly insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander deployed an AA Gun on an unspecified high ground in the district with the aim to target IM helicopters and aircraft. Remark: Although the information is vague, it is of concern that this is the second report on deployment of an AA Gun in the country over the past week. The insurgent’s intent to target IM air assets is underlined again, also taking in consideration the high number of SAF and RPG attacks on IM air assets in the south of the country.

Operations: 26 Oct, Balkh Province, Balkh District – During a Police search operation in the Piazkar Village the Police arrested one suspected insurgent and seized 2 x Rifles with some ammunition and five hand grenades.

IED: 27 Oct, Kunduz Province, Khanabad District – Just before noon the ANSF located and defused a RCIED in the Tawos Abad Village. One insurgent was arrested.

Operations: 26 Oct, Takhar Province, Yangi Qala District, Momin Abad Village – Late during the afternoon the Police launched a single mortar bomb towards an insurgent position and killed one insurgent.

Operations: 27 Oct, Takhar Province, Darqad District, Basir Abad, Qaghni and Qunguzar Villages – During a Police operation in the villages a firefight erupted between the Police and insurgents. Four insurgents were killed, and five more insurgents were wounded. Two Police members were wounded.

Insurgency: 28 Oct, Takhar Province, Yangi Qalah District – Reportedly a suicide bomber of Pakistani origin deployed to the Omar Khail Village where he linked up with other insurgents in the area with the aim to attack a PSC.

Insurgency: 28 Oct, Takhar Province, Khoja Qar District – Reportedly an insurgent group deployed to the Zar Kamar, Kala Kata and Chamqer Khan Villages with the aim to attack Police Checkpoints in the villages.

Attack: 29 Oct, Takhar Province, Khwaja District – Reportedly insurgents under the command of two known insurgent commanders deployed illegal vehicle checkpoints in the Qala Kanta and Gor Tapah Areas.

EASTERN REGION

Insurgency: 30 Oct, Laghman Province, Dawlat Shah District – Reportedly insurgents under the command of three known insurgent commanders are planning to deploy illegal vehicle checkpoints in the Delok, Malangani and Zar Kamar Areas with the aim to kidnap ANSF members as the latter routinely travel to the Provincial Capital to collect their salaries.

Ambush: 26 Oct, Kunar Province, Sirkanay District – Just before noon insurgents ambushed a Police QRF Team with heavy weapons and SAF in the Nawabad Area. The firefight lasted for approx 20 minutes. No casualties were reported.

Kidnap: 26 Oct, Kunar Province, Shegal District – Approx at noon insurgents kidnapped two local residents in the Ghundano Area as they were on their way home. The whereabouts of the victims is not known at this stage.

IDF Attack: 26 Oct, Kunar Province, Bar Kunar, Asmar District – During the afternoon insurgents launched a single mortar bomb towards the District Police HQ. The mortar bomb impacted in an open field and no casualties were reported.

IDF Attack: 26 Oct, Kunar Province, Dangam District – During the afternoon insurgents launched an undisclosed number of mortars towards the District Administrative Center. The mortar bombs impacted inside the Police Compound, wounding two Police members.

Attack: 26 Oct, Kunar Province, Sirkanay District – During the afternoon insurgents attacked a Police Checkpoint with heavy weapons and SAF in the Barabat Area. The firefight lasted for approx 30 minutes. No casualties were reported.

Insurgency: 28 Oct, Kunar Province, Dangam District – Reportedly a group of approx 35 insurgents under the command of two known insurgent commanders deployed to the district with the aim to attack ANSF Checkpoints assigned to road construction projects. According to the received information ten of the insurgents are of Pakistani origin.

Insurgency: 28 Oct, Kunar Province, Sirkanay District – Reportedly a group of approx 25 insurgents under the command of a known insurgent commander deployed to the Kanjgah Village with the aim to attack ANSF Checkpoints in the area.

IDF Attack: 26 Oct, Nangarhar Province, Surkh Rod District – Just before noon insurgents launched two mortar bombs towards the District Administrative Center. The mortar bombs impacted in an open field and no casualties were reported.

Murder: 26 Oct, Nangarhar Province, Khoghyani District – During the afternoon insurgents shot and killed a local resident in the Wazir Area.

Kidnap: 27 Oct, Nangarhar Province, Hisarak District – During the day insurgents kidnapped the father of a Police member. The Police member is deployed at the Police District HQ, and the whereabouts of the victim is not known at this stage.

Attack: 28 Oct, Nangarhar Province, Unspecified Districts – According to insurgent information operations insurgents carried out a series of attacks against an IM installation and five Border Police OPs. According to the bulletin released by the insurgents seven Border Police members were killed and two insurgents were wounded. Remark: The casualties were not added to the statistics as insurgent information operations typically overstate the casualties in order to boost their own moral.

Insurgency: 29 Oct, Nangarhar Province, Lal Pur District – Reportedly a group of approx 15 insurgents infiltrated from Pakistan to the Rina and Par Chaw Villages with the aim to ambush IM and Border Police vehicles.

Insurgency: 30 Oct, Nangarhar Province, Surkh Rod District – Reportedly the insurgents deployed four suicide bombers from Pakistan to the Tatang Village in order to conduct suicide attacks in the Jalalabad City.

SOUTH EASTERN REGION

IDF Attack: 27 Oct, Paktya Province, Jaji District – During the day insurgents launched two rockets towards an IM installation. No casualties were reported.

IDF Attack: 27 Oct, Paktya Province, Wuza Zadran District – During the afternoon insurgents launched six mortar bombs towards the District Administrative Center. No casualties were reported.

Ambush: 27 Oct, Paktya Province, Shwak District – During the morning insurgents ambushed an ANA convoy with RPGs and SAF in the Shabak Tangai Area. Two LNs were killed.

IED: 26 Oct, Khost Province, Mando Zay District – During the day the Police located and defused an IED near the District Administrative Center.

IDF Attack: 26 Oct, Paktika Province, Barmal District – During the day insurgents launched three rockets towards a joint IM/ANSF installation. No casualties were reported.

IED: 26 Oct, Paktika Province, Barmal District – During the day the ANA located and defused an IED in the Margha Area.

IED: 27 Oct, Paktika Province, Barmal District – During the day the IM located and defused an IED in the Zangy Ada Area.

IED: 27 Oct, Paktika Province, Ziruk District – During the day an ANA water tanker detonated an IED near the District Administrative Center. The water tanker was damaged.

Ambush: 27 Oct, Paktika Province, Yahya Khel District – During the day insurgents ambushed an IM convoy near the District Administrative Center with SAF. Two insurgents were killed. Privileged and Confidential This information is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed and may contain information that is privileged, confidential, and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. You are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this information is strictly prohibited without the explicitly approval from Strategic SSI Management. Page 10 of 19 Strategic SSI - Afghanistan

SOUTHERN REGION

Insurgency: 30 Oct, Nimroz Province, Delaram District – Reportedly a group of insurgents entered the district with Toyota Corolla vehicles with the aim to attack the Delaram District Police HQ.

Operations: 24 Oct (Late Report), Helmand Province, Baghran District – Just after midnight the IM launched an air strike against an insurgent position in the Chinar Kaly Area. Four insurgents were killed and three insurgents were wounded.

IED: 24 Oct (Late Report), Helmand Province, Marjah District – During the day an ANSF vehicle detonated a RCIED. One ANA member was killed, one ANA member was wounded, and a Police member was wounded.

Attack: 24 Oct (Late Report), Helmand Province, Naw Zad District – During the afternoon insurgents attacked a Police Checkpoint in the Wali Khan Kariz Area. The firefight lasted for approx three hours. No casualties were reported.

Operations: 25 Oct, Helmand Province, Naw Zad District – During the day a firefight erupted between insurgents and the ANSF. A nine year old boy was wounded in the cross fore.

Operations: 25 Oct, Helmand Province, Marjah District – During the day a firefight erupted between insurgents and a joint IM/ANSF patrol. No casualties were reported.

IED: 25 Oct, Helmand Province, Naw Zad District – During the morning two local residents detonated an IED in the Alizo Village. Both LNs were killed.

IED: 25 Oct, Helmand Province, Sangin District – During the day a civilian tractor detonated an IED in the Khanano Village. The LN driver was seriously wounded.

Attack: 25 Oct, Helmand Province, Sangin District – During the day insurgents attacked a joint IM/ANSF installation near the District Administrative Center with RPGs and SAF. One IM member was wounded and one ANA member was wounded.

IED: 26 Oct, Helmand Province, Nawa-E Barakzi District – During the morning the Police located an IED in the Chehle Do Area. An IM EOD Team later defused the device.

IED: 26 Oct, Helmand Province, Sangin District – During the day an IM patrol detonated an IED approx 15 Km north of the District Administrative Center. Three IM members were wounded.

Intimidation: 27 Oct, Helmand Province, Nad Ali District – Insurgents sustain their intimidation campaign against the local residents north of the Chare Anjir Triangle based on allegations that the local residents cooperate with the security forces. Following the public executions of three local residents on 26 Oct, they executed two more LNs on 27 Oct once again blaming them for being security force spies. Remark: The current successes and presence of the IM and ANSF is making the insurgents nervous, and the intimidation in the form of murders and executions are likely to be continued.

Attack: 27 Oct, Helmand Province, Lashkar Gah District – During the night of 27/28 Oct insurgents launched five separate SAF attacks against IM deployments in the Basharan Area in the northern part of the district. The attacks were all ineffective, though two of the attacks involved accurate single-shot SAF.

Attack: 27 Oct, Helmand Province, Nad Ali District – During the night of 27/28 Oct insurgents launched four ineffective SAF attacks againt the IM in the south of the district. Two IM members were wounded, and the insurgents launched a SAFire attack with SAF against the IM helicopter during the medevac of the wounded members.

Attack: 27 Oct, Helmand Province, Lashkar Gah District – During the night of 27/28 Oct insurgents launched three separate SAF attacks against IM deployments in the northern part of the district. The attacks were all ineffective, though one of the attacks involved accurate single-shot SAF. One IM member was wounded.

IED: 27 Oct, Helmand Province, Sangin District – During the day a dismounted IM patrol detonated and IED northeast of the District Administrative Center. One IM member was wounded.

IED: 27 Oct, Helmand Province, Sangin District – During the day a mounted IM patrol detonated and IED south of the District Administrative Center. No casualties were reported.

IED: 27 Oct, Helmand Province, Sangin District – During the night of 27/28 Oct the IM located and defused six pressure plate IEDs. Four were located northeast of the District Administrative Center, and two were located to the south of the District Administrative Center.

Attack: 28 Oct, Helmand Province, Lashkar Gah District – During the night insurgents launched five separate SAF attacks against IM Checkpoints in the north of the district. The attacks were all ineffective. No casualties were reported.

IED: 28 Oct, Helmand Province, Marjah District – During the evening of 28/29 Oct the IM located and defused two IEDs on a route to the west of the District Administrative Center. Remark: Both the devices were relative large explosive charges with pressure plate initiators. The constructions of the devices and the emplacements of them is a clear indication tha the insurgents intended to target IM armored vehicles.

Attack: 29 Oct, Helmand Province, Sangin District – During the day insurgents shot and wounded a civilian contractor who was on top of a mobile elevated platform at an IM installation near the District Administrative Center.

IED: 29 Oct, Helmand Province, Garmsir District – During the day an ANA patrol detonated an IED approx 20 Km south of the District Administrative Center. One ANA member was wounded.

Success: 27 Oct, Kandahar Province, Arghandab District – During the morning a joint IM/ANSF operation was launched in the Charqulba Village. During the operation an insurgent cache was discovered, containing 19 constructed IEDs and an amount of IED making materials. An IM EOD Team defused and removed the devices. No arrests were made.

Attack: 27 Oct, Kandahar Province, Kandahar City – During the day insurgents on motorcycles shot and wounded a former Jihad commander and a current local pro-government militia commander.

Attack: 27 Oct, Kandahar Province, Kandahar City – During the morning insurgents on motorcycles shot and wounded a government official and one of his family members.

Ordinance Recovered: 27 Oct, Kandahar Province, Zhari District – During the morning a joint IM/ANSF operation in the Tolakan Village led to the location and seizure of a cache containing five IEDs, 20 AP Mines and various IED making materials.

Operations: 27 Oct, Kandahar Province, Mianeshin District – During the night a joint IM/ANSF operation was launched in the Kabarkho Kheyl Area. Eight insurgents were killed, including a senior insurgent commander.

Insurgency: 28 Oct, Kandahar Province, Kandahar City – Reportedly a group of approx 15 insurgents shaved their beards off and they are operating on foot inside the city with the aim to kidnap and/or kill government employees.

Attack: 28 Oct, Kandahar Province, Spin Boldak District – During the night of 28/29 Oct insurgents launched a SAF attack against an IM deployment in the Bedak Area. No casualties were reported.

IED: 27 Oct, Zabul Province, Shinkay District – During the day the vehicle of the District Police Commander was targeted with an IED. The commander was not in the vehicle, but three Police members that were in the vehicle were killed.

Success: 28 Oct, Zabul Province, Shahjoy District – During the day the IM launched an air strike against an insurgent deployment in the Azmat Area. Ten insurgents were killed, and two more insurgents were wounded. A senior insurgent commander from the neighboring Kakar District was amongst the dead.

IED: 28 Oct, Zabul Province, Shahjoy District – During the day insurgents was busy emplacing an IED in the Kashmir Kheyl Area when the device prematurely detonated. Two insurgents were killed.

SPECIAL INTEREST NEWS

US: No high-level talks with Taliban Press TV / October 30, 2010

The US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, says no high-level talks with the Taliban are taking place. "There's less here than meets the eye," AFP quoted Holbrooke as saying after a

However, he said that there has been an increase in the number of Taliban-allied fighters who step forward for peace because they are weary of fighting. "Most of this is at the local level - individual provincial leaders, individual commanders with their units. A lot of these groups, if you know the history of Afghanistan, you will know were not hard-core ideological Taliban. They are independent groups who defend their local valley and move back and forth, and they're feeling the pressure," he said at the US State Department. The US official further pointed out that there have been low levels of talks with the Taliban underway. "This is not, however, the kind of high-level talks which all of you are writing and speculating about. And those are not taking place; they're just being written about," Holbrooke said.

General David Petraeus, the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, also talked about "various strands of outreach from various Taliban leaders." However, Petraeus directly stated that nothing is happening that rises to the level of talks or negotiations. The remarks by the US officials come as Afghan President Hamid Karzai has selected 68 men and two women to sit on the peace council to guide efforts to reconcile with the Taliban and other militant groups. October 7th marks the ninth anniversary of the invasion of Afghanistan. The US and its allies invaded Afghanistan in 2001 under the pretext to crush the Taliban following the September 11 collapse of the Twin Towers in New York. After several years, a record number of Afghan civilians are still being killed and US-led troops are losing record numbers of soldiers, but security has not been improved in the war-torn country.

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Press TV / October 30, 2010

Afghanistan has condemned recent raids by US and Russian forces on drug labs in the country that were not authorized by the Afghan government. "Afghanistan condemns this act by NATO and announces that such unilateral operations are a clear violation of Afghan sovereignty as well as international law, and any repetition will be met by the required reaction from our side," Afghan President Hamid Karzai said in a statement Saturday. He also demanded an explanation from the US-led military alliance's command in the war-torn country about the unauthorized raids.

On Thursday, Russian and US forces raided heroin and opium labs in Nangarhar Province near the Pakistan border, destroying 250 million dollars worth of drugs. "No organization or institution has the right to carry out such military operations inside the territory of our country without permission and agreement from the Islamic Government of Afghanistan," AFP quoted the Afghan president as saying. Karzai has also ordered an investigation into the raids, requesting that the result of the probe be handed to him no later than Saturday night. Russia's anti-narcotics chief Viktor Ivanov says his unit had closely cooperated with their US counterparts to organize the busts. He added that more than a ton of heroin and morphine was destroyed in the attacks. According to a recent UN report, some 3,600 tons of opium was produced in Afghanistan this year. Afghanistan has accounted for 95 percent of the world's heroin output in recent years. The reported added that the figures show a 38 percent increase in the value of the opium at the farm gate.

According to a report published in The Sunday Times, British soldiers at Camp Bastion in Helmand Province and Canadian soldiers based at Kandahar airport may have been involved in trafficking drugs. "Although they are unsubstantiated, we take any such reports very seriously and we have already tightened our existing procedures both in Afghanistan and in the UK, including through increasing the use of trained sniffer dogs," a British Ministry of Defense spokeswoman told the newspaper in mid September. Experts say the US-led invasion has brought unending misery and instability to Afghanistan.

WEATHER FORECAST

Afghanistan Weather for Monday 01 November 2010

Kabul Jalalabad Mazar Kandahar Herat

Clear Clear Scattered Clouds Clear Clear

22° C | 6° C 24° C | 10° C 26° C | 12° C 26° C | 12° C 26° C | 9° C

Farah Khost Kunduz Gardez Fayzabad

Clear Clear Clear Clear Clear

27° C | 16° C 22° C | 10° C 26° C | 13° C 14° C | 4° C 26° C | 7° C

CALENDAR

30 Oct 10 - Parliamentary Election Final Results Expected 16 Nov - 17 Nov 10 - Eid-al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice)

Note. Muslim festivals are timed according to local sightings of various phases of the moon and the dates given above are approximations. During the lunar month of Ramadan that precedes Eid al-Fitr, Muslims fast during the day and feast at night and normal business patterns may be interrupted. Some disruption may continue into Eid al-Fitr itself. Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha may last up to several days, depending on the region.

NEWS / INFORMATION

Afghan election body has yet to announce election result although 6 weeks on By Farid Behbud

KABUL, Oct. 30 (Xinhua) -- Even though six weeks have passed from Sept. 18 when millions of war-weary Afghans dared Taliban threats and cast their ballots in the country's second parliamentary election, the final results have yet to come out. The preliminary results of Afghanistan's second parliamentary elections since the collapse of Taliban regime in late 2001, held amid tight security was announced on Oct. 20 with surfacing over 50 percent new faces. However, the names of dozens of the sitting parliamentarians including speaker for the Lower House of the parliament Mohammad Yunus Qanooni, the government's critic Ramazan Bashardost and a few more had topped the winners list.

The final result, according to election timeline set up by Afghanistan Independent Election Commission (IEC), was expected on Oct. 30. Nevertheless, registering thousands of complaints by voters, candidates and election observers have slowed down the process and caused postponement. Ahmad Zia Rafat, a commissioner and spokesman for the UN-backed Electoral Complaint Commission (ECC) said last Thursday that so far the complaint commission had received nearly 6,000 complaints and out of these, more than 2,500 are serious and could affect the election results if proved. "The ECC has adjudicated almost 70 percent of more than 2,500 of electoral complaints which has been triaged and categorized as group (A) or serious allegations that would affect the results at polling stations level," Rafat said. ECC is composed of five members including two international commissioners.

The complaints registered with ECC, according to the official, include using state machinery, influencing election workers at polling stations, stuffing ballot boxes illegally, double voting, vote-rigging and using faked voting cards. Ballot papers in more than 400 polling stations, according to Rafat, have been mulled and voided. Final result of Afghanistan's second legislative elections since the fall of Taliban regime in late 2001, due on two weeks would not be announced until all the allegations and complaints are adjudicated Originally, IEC and security bodies had planned to open over 19, 000 polling stations across the country and only 17,700 had remained open on the election day enabling voters to cast their votes. Finally around 5.6 million votes were casted on the ballot boxes on the poll day in the country's 34 provinces and of these 1. 3 million votes had been invalidated by election body after processing.

More than 2,500 people including over 400 women had contested the parliamentary elections on Sept. 18 to secure seat in the 249- seat Wolesi Jirga or Lower House of parliament in the post-Taliban Afghanistan. According to the Afghan electoral law, final results cannot be announced until all complaints are adjudicated. Announcing election result would at least take two weeks more as ECC spokesman Rafat expressed hope last week that Afghans could see the final result before Eidul Adha or Eidul Qurban the biggest annual religious festival falling on Nov. 15.

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9 million Afghans live in extreme poverty Press TV / October 30, 2010

The Afghan government says nine million people in Afghanistan are living in extreme poverty, while two years ago only five million Afghans lived in penury. Two years ago, five million people in Afghanistan lived in extreme poverty, but now the number has increased to nine million, Afghan Deputy Minister for Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock Salim Kunduzi told a gathering to mark World Food Day, Pajhwok Afghan News reported on Thursday. He added that Kabul regards people who do not have enough food and other basic daily necessities as extremely poor. The senior Afghan official said the number of poor varies throughout the year, but always increases in the winter. The recent floods across Afghanistan and in neighboring Pakistan have worsened poverty, experts said.

According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), extreme poverty is measured by having none or less than five hectares of land. The rise in the price of food products, such as rice, cooking oil, and meat, has pushed many Afghans, who are among the poorest people in the world, into a high risk of food shortage, a Press TV correspondent reported in early October. “Unfortunately, Afghanistan is highly import-dependent when it comes to basic goods,” said the spokesman for Afghanistan's Ministry of Commerce, Ahmad Farhad Afghanzoi. “It does not produce much to meet its needs. Therefore, we import most of our food from our neighboring countries,” he added.

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Petraeus: Picking up the pace on attacking Taliban

Kabul, Afghanistan (CNN) -- U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus said Saturday that he has not changed strategy in Afghanistan, insisting that he is still solely pursuing a counterinsurgency plan aimed at protecting Afghan citizens. But as part of that effort, he makes no apology that under his command lethal airstrikes and ground actions have picked up. In a briefing provided to CNN, a senior ISAF official offered a series of statistics underscoring the results of counterinsurgency operations, although he strongly emphasized he was not trying to present an overly rosy picture of the war. The official noted that in the 90-day period ending October 21, special operations forces had conducted 3,438 operations --of which more than 1,500 involved the use of lethal force. In those operations, 339 insurgent leaders were killed or captured, and 2,461 additional rank-and-file insurgents captured, and 983 rank-and-file insurgents killed. The official noted, however, a typical complexity of the insurgency: 75 percent of those captured are captured within a few miles of their homes, and are never held long term in detention.

Special operations forces during the same period conducted nearly 1,900 so-called "population centric" operations designed to assist Afghan civilians and local security forces, including helping train Afghan forces. He also said that during a two-week period in early October, coalition forces successfully fought against a number of groups of fighters from the Haqqani network crossing into Afghanistan from Pakistan who were attempting to wage large-scale attacks on coalition and Afghan bases in the border region. More than 120 Haqqani fighters were killed. ISAF also provided the following additional data from its assessments:

--The number of civilians wounded and killed last quarter (July-September) was 20 percent lower than the same period last year, despite the increase in fighting and increased numbers of coalition forces and Afghan forces. ISAF believes this means that even with rising attacks, it is reducing the ability of insurgents to harm the Afghan civilian population.

--Violence has been centered in a small number of districts. In 2009, 50 percent of the violence was occurring in 14 districts. In 2010, 50 percent of the violence occurred in just 10 districts, with Helmand and Kandahar provinces accounting for the majority of attacks.

--Direct fire attacks such as ambushes, grenades, rockets and small arms account for the vast majority of all attacks against coalition forces. ISAF believes that is because a number of IED manufacturers and networks have been hit in those offensive strike operations, leaving insurgents with few other choices.

As for improvised explosive device trends:

--IED explosions increased 15 percent in the last quarter (July-September), compared to the same period last year. But with the rate of finding and disarming IEDs now hitting over 50 percent, ISAF believes the trend is being reversed. An ISAF official told CNN, "The efforts are beginning to bear fruit." In one region, the official said, "IED find and clear rates have increased by 70 percent while IED detonations have decreased by 20 percent" over the past three weeks. "Furthermore, during this time period only 11 percent of IEDs were effective in causing casualties."

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Smooth transition will be key to bringing troops home from Afghanistan By Barbara Starr, CNN

Kabul, Afghanistan (CNN) -- They call it "Inteqal" -- it means "transition" in both Dari and Pashtu, according to NATO -- but going down that road is a bit slower than first expected. Still, succeeding at Inteqal will be the road home for U.S. troops in Afghanistan. At next month's NATO summit in Lisbon, Portugal, no announcements

Privileged and Confidential This information is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed and may contain information that is privileged, confidential, and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. You are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this information is strictly prohibited without the explicitly approval from Strategic SSI Management. Page 17 of 19 Strategic SSI - Afghanistan are likely about which specific areas of Afghanistan will be the first to be transitioned to Afghan control, according to several officials representing member nations of the alliance. Instead, NATO will simply announce that the transition process is under way and reaffirm that Afghan security forces are expected to take the lead in conducting security operations across the country by the end of 2014. It's a process that will be very gradual.

In an exclusive interview with CNN, U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus, the top commander in Afghanistan, said he expects to be able to recommend to President Barack Obama that the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan could begin to be reduced in July 2011, but he declined to say how many troops might be headed home, adding that some could be reassigned to other jobs inside Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the Taliban's momentum in Afghanistan has "broadly been arrested" in some locations in recent weeks, he said. "My assessment is that the momentum that the Taliban enjoyed until probably late summer, has broadly been arrested in the country," Petraeus said. "It doesn't mean it's been arrested in every location in the country, but it means by and large that is the case, and moreover, more importantly, the ISAF and Afghan forces have achieved momentum in some very important areas."

One Western official confirmed to CNN that there were indications earlier this year that the alliance and the government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai were ready to agree on the first provinces that would be part of the transition process, but delays in finalizing the deals are likely to mean now that no announcements will be made until early 2011. Several months ago, U.S. military officials were privately indicating that some of the first to be turned over could include Parwan, Panjshir and Bamiyan, where violence has been relatively low. The French have also made it clear they would like to leave a district of Kabul province and turn it over to Afghan control.

NATO and the Afghan government have now established a joint process to assess which areas are ready for turnover based on several factors, according to the Western official who is familiar with the internal debate inside the alliance. A Joint Afghan-NATO Inteqal Board is being set up, then provinces will be assessed and recommendations will be made to the Afghan Cabinet for final approval. But the official made clear that while Karzai will be the public face of transition -- accepting control province by province--NATO will conduct detailed assessments of security, development and the ability of Afghans to govern in each area. Once a province is turned over to Afghan control, that decision will be "irreversible," the official said. The reason: to make sure the Afghan government fully understands the serious implications of taking control and doesn't change its mind, which could result in NATO troops having to re-enter an area at a future date.

An assessment of security in each province and the ability of Afghan forces to take over those functions will clearly be the major factor in deciding to begin the turnover process. The actual factors in assessing security will include the number of attacks on civilians, government officials and security forces, as well as the freedom of movement by the local population. The Western official emphasized that no one is waiting to meet a standard of "no violence," but rather an assessment that Afghan forces can control and deal with violence that occurs. This entire NATO-Afghan process comes as Petraeus is both leading the NATO military assessment and preparing an end of the year U.S. assessment for Obama. Petraeus has a highly detailed set of security assessment factors for 83 so-called "key terrain districts" mainly in the south and east where violence has been the heaviest, a senior ISAF official told CNN. While those areas may not be ready for transition, the detailed assessment will give Petraeus a sense of security on an almost village-by-village basis.

The official emphasized, however, that "no one believes there will be a tipping point before spring." ISAF wants to see if the gains made in recent weeks last through the winter. Petraeus is expressing the view that the recent increase in airstrikes has destroyed many Taliban safehavens, IED factories and weapon caches that the insurgency may not be able to regroup after this winter. The official said Petraeus' goal for the December White House review is to be able to tell the president that the current war plan is working and continued progress can be made in 2011. Petraeus declined to spell out what he specifically plans to tell Obama. But he offered CNN this assessment: "There is no day in Afghanistan that doesn't have some bad news. The question

Privileged and Confidential This information is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed and may contain information that is privileged, confidential, and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. You are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this information is strictly prohibited without the explicitly approval from Strategic SSI Management. Page 18 of 19 Strategic SSI - Afghanistan is how much bad news, relative to how much ... good news [is received]. As a general assessment right now, the trajectory of the roller coaster in Afghanistan is upward, and that is a change. We intend to maintain the pressure, to increase it."

ACRONYMS

AA Anti-Aircraft MNF Multi National Forces AGE Anti-Government Elements (Generic term for MO Modus Operandi insurgent groups) MOD Ministry of Defence ABP AFGHAN Border Police MOI Ministry of Interior ADZ AFGHAN Development Zone (in Central NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation HELMAND around LKG) NBC Nuclear, Biological and Chemical AEF AFGHAN Eradication Force NBD Non-Battle Death ANA AFGHAN National Army NBI Non-Battle Injury ANP AFGHAN National Police NDA NAD-e ALI (in HELMAND Province) ANSF AFGHAN National Security Forces NFDK No Further Details Known ANSO AFGHAN NGO Safety Office NGO Non-Governmental Organisation AMF AFGHAN Militia Forces NSTR Nothing Significant to Report AO Area of Operations NDS National Directorate of Security (Afghan) AP Anti-Personnel OEF Operation Enduring Freedom (US Operation APC Armoured Personnel Carrier with a separate command structure and remit to AQ Al Qaeda ISAF, predominantly operating in the ASF AFGHAN Special Forces EASTERN region) AT Anti-Tank OP Observation Point BBRCIED Bicycle Borne Remote Controlled Improvised OPCEN Operations Centre Explosive Device OPSEC Operational Security BBIED Body Borne Improvised Explosive Device P2K PAKTIKA, PAKTIA & KHOWST BDA Battle Damage Assessment PAK PAKISTAN BME Bomb Making Equipment PB Patrol Base BP Border Post PBIED Person Born Improvised Explosive Device CAS Close Air Support PD Police District CASEVAC Casualty Evacuation PEF Poppy Eradication Force CNP Counter Narcotic Police PPIED Pressure plate IED CivPop Civilian Population PRT Provincial Reconstruction Team COIN (Ops) Counter Insurgency (Operations) PSAF Precision Small Arms Fire CoP Chief of Police PSC Private Security Company CP Checkpoint PSD Protective Security Detail CQA Close Quarter Assassination QRF Quick Reaction Force CWIED Command Wire IED Recce Reconnaissance DC District Centre RC Radio controlled / Remote controlled (as in DDR Disarmament, Demobilisation, Reintegration RCIED) DF Direct Fire RL Rocket Launcher DIAG Disarmament of Illegal Armed Groups RPG Rocket Propelled Grenade EF Enemy Forces (Generic term for insurgent RTA Road Traffic Accident groups) SAF Small Arms Fire EOD Explosive Ordnance Disposal SAFIRE Surface-to-Air Fire FOB Forward Operating Base SAM Surface-to-Air Missile FP Firing Point SF Special Forces / Security Forces GIRoA Government of the Islamic Republic of SIOC Security Information Operations Centre AFGHANISTAN SOP Standard Operational Procedure GOA Government of Afghanistan SRA Security Risk Assessment GR Grid Reference (Provided in MGRS – Military SVBIED Suicide Vehicle Born Improvised Explosive Grid Reference System) Device GSK GERESHK (in HELMAND) S Suicide i.e. SIED – suicide IED, SVBIED – HIG HEZB-I-ISLAMI GULBUDDIN suicide VBIED HME Home-made explosives (usually fertiliser- TB TALIBAN based) TBD To be determined HMG Heavy Machine Gun TTPs Tactics, techniques and procedures HQ Headquarters UGV Upper GERESHK Valley (HELMAND HVT High Value Target Province) IDF Indirect fire (Rockets and mortars) UN United Nations IEC Independent Election Commission UN DSS United Nations Department of Safety and IED Improvised Explosive Device Security IM (F) International Military (Forces) USV Upper SANGIN Valley (HELMAND Province) INGO International Non-governmental Organization UXO Unexploded Ordnance INS Insurgent(s) VBIED Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device ISAF International Security Assistance Force VCP Vehicle Check Point (Also, IVCP – Illegal IVO In the Vicinity Of (i.e. mil-speak for near) VCP) JEMB Joint Election Management Body VOIED Victim Operated IED JTF Joint Task Force WB World Bank KAF KANDAHAR Airfield WFP World Food Program KAIA KABUL International Airport WIA Wounded in action KCP KABUL City Police WHO World Health Organisation KIA Killed in action LKG LASHKAR GAH (in HELMAND Province) LN Local National (i.e. Afghan) MCIED Motor cycle improvised explosive device MCN Ministry of Counter Narcotics MEDIVAC Medical Evacuation MG Machine Gun MIA Missing in action