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CYNON TAF Community Housing! Group ! ! !
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!! ! !"!" -.+/0%1,-20$31, " =%69&)$*"6&)0%+-"6,%$*-"7'".-2/6)$*"M.--$,4/1-"M%1"NMOMP"-0)11)4$1")1" /$24/7+-2&'"+,-"34.-041+"6,%&&-$*-"/$2-.5)$$)$*"+,-"$--2"+4")05.4;-"+,-" 9 5-.34.0%$6-"43"4/.",4/1)$*"1+469<"I%.74$"Q)4R)2-"AIJCE"34.01"+,-",)*,-1+" What is climate change5.454.+)4$"43"MOM"-0)11)4$1"%$2")+")1"-1+)0%+-2"+,%+"+,-"ST@1"240-1+)6"7/)&2)$*1" and why does it matter? %664/$+"34."CUV"43"+4+%&"IJC"-0)11)4$1"7'"-$2W/1-."AQFGXY8"CDDZE<"=,-"ST" *4;-.$0-$+",%1"%69$4:&-2*-2"+,-"2.%1+)6"$--2"34."%6+)4$"%$2",%1".-6-$+&'"1-+"%$" /52%+-2"%$2")$6.-%1-2"+%.*-+"34."%$"[DV".-2/6+)4$")$"IJC"-0)11)4$1"7'"+,-"'-%." century for CO2 – and so their concentrationsCD\D8"/1)$*"!LLD"&-;-&1"%1"%"7%1-&)$-"AI&)0%+-"I,%$*-"Y6+8"CDD[ are gases. The overall effect of emissions on theE<"=,)1"+%.*-+")1" determined by emission and removal rates.%07)+)4/18"*4)$*"%74;-"%$2"7-'4$2"+,-"1,4.+ Since climate system can be foundW+-.0"T'4+4"K.4+464&"6400)+0-$+"43"%" by multiplying the the industrial revolution, man’s use of fossil!C<\V".-2/6+)4$")$"MOM"-0)11)4$1"7'"CD!D8":,)6,"+,-"ST")1"$4:":)2-&'"-R5-6+-2"+4" fuels emissions by the relevant GWP. and increase in agriculture has increased,%;-"%6,)-;-2"AQ=#8"CDD]^"QFII8"CD!DE<"" the " The relative contribution to global warming over the next 100 years emissions of all the long-lived greenhouse" gases. 4+3)&1,!!"=,-".-&%+);-"64$+.)7/+)4$"+4"*&47%&":%.0)$*"4;-."+,-"$-R+"!DD"'-%.1"43"6/..-$+"-0)11)4$1"43"of current emissions of greenhouse gases. *.--$,4/1-"*%1-1" 4. Human activities also affect the climate in other ways. Airborne aerosol particles emitted by Nitrous Others sources such as industry, power stations and oxide 3% transport scatter sunlight, which would otherwise 10% reach the earth’s surface, and have a cooling effect on the climate system. Their influence can be important in heavily polluted regions but, Methane unlike greenhouse gases, they do not accumulate 24% in the atmosphere because they are washed out by rain within a few weeks. Aerosols have Carbon dioxide partially masked the full effect of increasing 63% greenhouse gases and have slowed the rate of ! temperature increase. Human activities,5')&*16, such asQFGXY"ACDDZE" agriculture and deforestation, have also changed Global Warming Potentials for selected gases from the IPCC Third the nature of the earth’s surface in ways" which Assessment Report affect climate. For example, changing land use!"!"!" 718+(1$%+0.,51*%'&,'9:1*%+;18, " GAS GWP from forests to pasture increases the amount of #$"+,-"X-1)2-$+)%&"1-6+4."+,-"M4;-.$0-$+",%1"CO )05&-0-$+-2"%$2"5.4541-2"1 $/0-.4/1" sunlight reflected and the availability of moisture 2 54&)6'"0-%1/.-1")$"4.2-."+4".-2/6-"IJCH C"-0)11)4$1"3.40"$-:23 W7/)&2",4/1)$*<"_+.)6+-." at the surface. Such changes affect the climate 4 7/)&2)$*".-*/&%+)4$1"%$2"-$-.*'"1+%$2%.218"6407)$-2":)+,"+,-"5.4;)1)4$"43"3)$%$6)%&"N O 296 on a regional scale. Deforestation also )$6-$+);-1",%;-"6/&0)$%+-2")$"*leads to 2 .%$2"+%.*-+1"7-)$*"1-+"+4"0%9-"%&&"$-:",40-1">(-.4" significant emissions of CO to the atmosphere HFC-23 12000 2 6%.74$@")$"F$*&%$2"7'"CD!Z"%$2")$"`%&-1"7'"CD!!"AQFGXY8"CDDUE<"O4:-;-.8")+")1" and currently accounts for some 20 per-;)2-$+"+,%+"$-:",4/1)$*":)&&"4$&'"0%9-"/5"%"0)$4.)+'"43"+,-"3/+/.-",4/1)$*"1+469" cent HFC-134a 1300 of global emissions. %*%)$1+":,)6,"+,-1-"+%.*-+1"%.-"1-+<"#$2--28"%CF4 &&4:)$*"34."+,-"6/..-$+"%$2"5.4H-6+-2"5700 .%+-1"43",4/1-"7/)&2)$*"%$2"2-04&)+)4$8")+")1"-1+)0%+-2"+,%+"[ZV"43"4/."6/..-$+" SF6 22200 ,4/1)$*":)&&"1+)&&"7-")$"/1-")$"CD\D8"0%9)$*"/5"+:4W+,).21"43"+,-"+4+%&"1+469"A_QI8" Greenhouse gases CDDZ^"a4%.20%$8"-+"%&<"CDD\6. AtmosphericE<"=,/18"+,-"b%+)4$%&"Y11-07&'"34."`%&-1@"_/1+%)$%7)&)+'" concentrations of carbon dioxide, I400)++--"AbY`8"CD!DE"471-.;-"+,%+"+,-"0%H4.)+'"43"`%&-1@".-1)2-$+)%&"6%.74$" methane and nitrous oxide have been rising for 1%;)$*1"0/1+"7-"%6,)-;-2"+,.4/*,"4/."-R)1+)$*",4/1)$*"1+469<"G/.+,-.04.-8":,-$":-" 5. In addition to the human induced emissions of 200 years. Concentrations of most other 64$1)2-."+,-"6/..-$+"-$-.*'"5-.34.0%$6-"43"4/."-R)1+)$*",4/1)$*8"+,-".-?/).-0-$+" carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, greenhouse gases have also been rising in the industrial activities have generated other34."%6+)4$")1"'-+"3/.+,-."%55%.-$+<"" " past five decades. Evidence from bubbles in greenhouse gases, namely hydrofluorocarbons, ice cores shows that the pre-industrial level of perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride1. carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was about C! ! Each greenhouse gas has a different capacity to 270ppm (parts per million) which has risen to cause global warming, depending on its radiative 377ppm by the end of 2004 and provisional data properties, its molecular weight and its residence for 2005 show a concentration of over 380ppm. time in the atmosphere. Global warming The atmospheric CO2 concentration is already at 2 potential (GWP) is a convenient index that can a level not seen on earth for at least 740,000 be used to assess the relative global warming years, and probably for over 20 million years. effect of the emissions of different gases over a Both ice core and instrumental measurements set time period – usually taken to be one have also shown well over a doubling of pre- hundred years – relative to the emission of an industrial methane concentrations in the equal mass of CO . The following table 2 atmosphere. summarises the GWPs for the main greenhouse
1 The UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol are concerned with greenhouse gases not covered by the Montreal Protocol. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydro- chlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are also greenhouse gases but are being phased out under the Montréal Protocol. 2 GWP is defined as the warming influence of a gas over a set time period relative to that of carbon dioxide. The GWP values used for calculating national greenhouse gas emissions totals are from IPCC’s Second Assessment Report and differ slightly from the values shown in Table 1 – see Annex H. !"!"<" =1&>'&/0$*1,'>,?@+8%+$3,5%'*A, , =,-"ST@1"6/..-$+"1+469")1"-1+)0%+-2"+4"64$+%)$"140-"43"+,-"4&2-1+"%$2"&-%1+"-33)6)-$+" ,4/1)$*")$"b4.+,-.$"F/.45-"Ac4:-"%$2"J.-1(6('$8"CDD[E<"Y&+,4/*,"X%;-+("ACDD[E" 471-.;-1"+,%+"+,-"5-.34.0%$6-"43"+,)1"1+469",%1")05.4;-2")$".-6-$+"'-%.18":)+," 4;-.%&&"%;-.%*-"_YK".%+)$*1")$6.-%1)$*"3.40"dC")$"!LLZ"+4"dL")$"CDDZ8"+,-.-".-0%)$1" 64$1)2-.%7&-"1645-"34.")05.4;-0-$+<"=,-"5-.34.0%$6-"43"4&2-."1+469")1"34/$2"+4" 5-.34.0"5%.+)6/&%.&'"7%2&'8"%$2"3)*/.-"C"1,4:1"+,%+"5.-"!L!L",4/1)$*"%6,)-;-1"+,-" The&4:-1+"_YK". factors that%+)$*1"43"%&&<"=,)1")1"5%.+)6/&%.&'"64$6-.$)$*8"*);-$"+,%+ have the greatest correlation with energy performance"+,-"QIcM"ACDDLE"of the existing-1+)0%+-1"+,%+"4;-." stock are age d
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
pre 1919 4.4 m
1919-1944 3.6 m
1945-1964 4.2 m
1965-1974 3.1 m
1975-1980 1.3 m
1981-1990 1.8 m
post 1990 1.8 m
SAP 2001 86+ SAP 2001 71 to 85 SAP 2001 56 to 70 The number of dwellings are shown in blue boxes SAP 2001 41 to 55 SAP 2001 21 to 40 SAP 2001 1 to 20 ! 5')&*16,QIcM"ACDDZE, Based on English House Condition Survey (EHCS) 2004, DCLG !"<" 4)1.,=';1&%B" This" chart clearly demonstrates a step change in the energy efficiency of post-1990 stock sinceY1"%"64$6-5+" when Part >3/-&"54;-.+'@")1"2-16.)7-2"%1L of the Building Regulations"466/..)$*":,-$"%",4/1-,4&2 has progressively raised"$--21"+4" the energy efficiency15-$2"04.-"+,%$"!DV"43")+1")$640-"4$"3/-&"+4"0%)$+%)$"%$">%2-?/%+-"&-;-&"43" standards for new homes. Improvements in the energy performance of new build,:%.0+,@"AQFGXY8" combined withCDD[E<"O-.-)$8"%$">%2-?/%+-"&-;-&"43":%.0+,@")1" household improvements have led to an increase2-3)$-2 "in%1 "C!"the average energy2-*.--1"34."+,-"0%)$"&);)$*"%.-%8"%$2"!["2-*.--1"34."4+,-."466/5)-2".4401"AQFGXY8" efficiency of the stock. Two thirds of all properties have SAP values between 41 andCDD[E<" 70. ThereY$4+,-. is a"3%6+4. clear 8":,)6,"0/1+"7-"64$1)2-.-2")$"+,)1"-?/%+)4$8")1"+,-trend that older properties have much lower energy",-%+)$*" performance with.-*)0-"+,%+")1"%++.)7/+-2"+4"+,- over 40 per cent of properties",4/1-,4&2<"=,)1" built before 19190%'"7-">1+%$2%.28">3/&&@"4.">5%.+) with SAP less than 41. By%&@" contrast 60 per 2-5-$2)$*"4$"+,-"$%+/.-"43"+,-",4/1-"%$2")+1"466/5%$6'<"cent of properties built since 1990 have SAP ratings above" 70. " Y">1+%$2%.2@",-%+)$*".-*)0-")1"%55&)-2"+4",4/1-,4&21":,-.-"+,-".-1)2-$+1"&-%;-"+,-" ,4/1-"2/.)$*"+,-"2%'"A34.":4.98"1+/2'"-+6
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5 ,4/1-,4&2".-?/).-1"64$+)$/4/1",-%+)$*"+,.4/*,4/+"+,-"2%'8"%1")+1".-1)2-$+1"24"$4+" &-%;-"+,-"5.45-.+'"2/-"+4"2)1%7)&)+'8"4&2"%*-8"1)69$-11"-+6<"_/6,".-1)2-$+1"%.-" 2-16.)7-2"%1">;/&$-.%7&-@<"G)$%&&'8"%">5%.+)%&@",-%+)$*".-*)0-")1"%55&)-2"+4",4/1-,4&21" :,-.-"4$&'"5%.+1"43"+,-",4/1-"1,4/&2"7-",-%+-2"%+"%$'"4$-"+)0-8"%1"+,-"5.45-.+'")1" &%.*-."+,%$"+,-".-1)2-$+@1"$--21<"G/-&"54;-.+'"0%'"7-"6%&6/&%+-2"%1"34&&4:1f"" "
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" G/-&"641+1",-.-"%.-"$4+"1)05&'"7%1-2"4$"%6+/%&"-R5-$2)+/.-"7/+"%.-"6%&6/&%+-2"7'" 0/&+)5&')$*"+,-",4/1-,4&2@1"3/-&".-?/).-0-$+1":)+,"+,-"64..-154$2)$*"3/-&"5.)6-1<" _/6,"3/-&".-?/).-0-$+1"%.-"2-+-.0)$-2"7'"042-&)$*"%":)2-".%$*-"43"3%6+4.18"%$2" )054.+%$+&'"+%9-"%664/$+"43"+,-"+'5-"43"240-1+)6"-$-.*'"/1%*-"%$2"+,-"-$-.*'" -33)6)-$6'"43"+,-",4/1-,4&2<"" " a-6%/1-"+,-"64$2)+)4$"43"3/-&"54;-.+'"2-5-$21"/54$"+,-";%.)%7&-1"43")$640-8" 2-5-$2-$6-8"3/-&"5.)6-1"%$2"-$-.*'"-33)6)-$6'8"&-;-&1"43"3/-&"54;-.+'"3&/6+/%+-" 64$1)2-.%7&'"%$2"6%$"+,/1"7-"2)33)6/&+"+4"%66/.%+-&'"%16-.+%)$<"b-;-.+,-&-118"%1"43" CDDZ8")+":%1"-1+)0%+-2"+,%+"%.4/$2"!dV"43"%&&",4/1-,4&21")$"+,-"ST"A]<\"0)&&)4$" ,4/1-,4&21E":-.-"7-&4:"+,-"3/-&"54;-.+'"+,.-1,4&2"AQFGXY8"CDD[E<"a.49-$"24:$8" +,-1-"1+%+)1+)61".-;-%&"+,%+"3/-&"54;-.+'")1"%"5%.+)6/&%."5.47&-0"34."+-..%6-2" 5.45-.+)-1"AB-$9)$18"CDD[E<"=,)1")1"2)15&%'-2")$"M.%5,"!8":,)6,"1,4:1"+,%+"+,-" 5-.6-$+%*-"43"3/-&"544.",4/1-,4&21")$"+-..%6-2",40-1")1"5.454.+)4$%+-&'",)*,-."+,%$" +,%+")$"%$'"4+,-."1+469"+'5-<"" ARTICLE IN PRESS " C&0D2,!6,F$*&)1,"3/-&"K4;-.+'"%$2"_+469"7'",4/1)$D.P.*"I%+-*4.)-1 Jenkins / Energy" Policy 38 (2010) 832–839 833
35 financial assistance for measures such as roof insulation and cavity-wall insulation in particular (i.e. making cost effective All stock measures even more cost effective), it is not designed to achieve 30 Fuel poor deep-cut carbon saving targets (e.g. 50% reductions and above) 25 throughout the UK housing stock. Such targets require an initial capital purchase that is far in excess of most individuals’ 20 willingness to pay (Peacock et al., 2009). This becomes even more problematic when lower income households are investigated. 15 3. Fuel poverty 10
% of stock in that category that in stock of % Fuel poverty figures are subject to relatively high levels of 5 uncertainty, largely due to variations in energy tariffs but also due to different definitions between sources. One UK government 0 report estimates the number of fuel poor households at 3.5 Semi- TerracedDetached Purpose Converted Other* million in the UK in 2006 (DEFRA, 2008). Other sources (Ravetz, detached built flat flat ! 2008) provide estimates that are higher (in the region of 5')&*16,B-$9)$1"ACD!DEFig."6)+)$*"QIcM"ACDD[E"YbQ"QaFXX"ACDD\E 1. Domestic stock categories for all English properties" (DCLG, 2008) and UK 4 million) than this figure, and current (2008 and 2009) estimates fuel poor (DBERR, 2005). are unavailable at time of writing, due to the time it takes to collate such information. It will be assumed for the following =,-.-")1"%"1+.4$*"&)$9"7-+:--$"3/-&"54;-.+'"%$2"-$-.*'"-33)6)-$6'8":,)6,")1"2)15&%'-2"calculations that there are in the region of 3.5 million fuel poor 7-&4:")$"M.%5,"C<"=,-"*.%5,"1,4:1"+,%+"+,-.-")1"%$")$;-.1-"64..-&%+)4$"7-+:--$"_YK"would be similar as 83%, or over 21 million, of UK houses are in households in the UK. .%+)$*"%$2"+,-"5.-;%&-$6-"43"3/-&"544.",4/1-,4&21<"`,)&1+"4;-."\DV"43",4/1-,4&21"England). Fig. 2 shows the change in fuel poverty statistics over recent Clearly, the stock can be further disaggregated into other years, with predictions used for fuel poor numbers after 2006 :)+,"%"_YK".%+)$*"7-&4:"CD"%.-")$"3/-&"54;-.+'8categories such as construction type,"4$&'"%.4/$2" location andC<\V"43",4/1-,4&21":)+," occupancy (DEFRA, 2008). The causes for these variations can be categorised %"_YK"*.-%+-."+,%$"Z\"%.-"3/-&"544.profile, all of which can<"" have a significant effect on expected into four areas: winter temperature, energy tariffs, subsidies (such energy use of the dwelling. Likewise, the definition of the building as cold weather payments) and average income of the households. will change the retrofit approach to the building. A cavity-wall Building thermal performance is also clearly a factor in the cause insulation measure, for example, is extremely effective for a house of fuel poverty but, in Fig. 2, would have a negligible effect on the with a typical cavity-wall construction. A similar building with a variationd! (as,! with a relatively immature low-carbon retrofit timber frame structure will not be able to use the same insulation industry and annual new-build additions being in the region of 1% measure, due to the need to retain an air gap in front of the timber of the total stock, the overall efficiency of the building stock would (to prevent degradation due to dampness). Such a building might not be dramatically changed over this period). require external or internal insulation measures instead, which Also shown in Fig. 2 is the Retail Price Index (RPI) for fuel and can be in the region of ten times more expensive than a cavity- light since 1996, a good indicator of the real cost of energy used in wall measure (OPSI, 2008). Solid wall buildings will be subject to the home (also GDP corrected (DBERR, 2008)). This shows a clear the same cost barriers. This problem is particularly relevant when correlation for much of the period between 1996 and 2008, with investigating the Carbon Emission Reduction Target (CERT) the introduction of Warm Front payments (and other subsidies) in scheme in Scotland (the largest available funding mechanism for the late 1990s causing the fuel poor to drop at a greater rate than energy-saving refurbishment in the UK), where a large proportion the RPI up to 2001. of houses are timber frame or solid walled. Figures accounting for With reference to what building types might be more the total number of dwellings that are unsuitable for cavity-wall susceptible to fuel poverty, Fig. 1 indicates a slightly higher insulation are difficult to estimate; although it is known that 70% percentage of fuel poor households in detached and terraced of dwellings in England have cavity walls (DCLG, 2007b) and 74% homes than is seen in the stock at large. This could be due to in Scotland (Scottish Government, 2007), the percentage of these detached homes having more external walls (and so are more that are timber-walled and social housing is difficult to cross- sensitive to poor thermal performance) and terraced homes being reference. As discussed elsewhere (WWF-UK, 2008a), this is likely less straightforward to retrofit and improve. However, Fig. 1 does to be more of a problem in Scotland than the rest of the UK. While, subtracting grant assistance, cavity-wall insulation can 6 1.6 be installed at a cost of several hundreds of pounds to the occupier Fuel poor RPI (fuel and light) 1.4 (the rest being paid by CERT), a building where only internal or 5 external wall insulation is possible would require the householder 1.2 to spend in the region of several thousands of pounds (OPSI, 4 2008). Looking at CERT UK-wide, the current target for annual CO2 1 savings, of 4.2 MtCO , is just 2.7% of the total domestic stock 2 3 0.8 emissions, assuming that the total stock emissions are 152 MtCO2 (Shorrock and Utley, 2003) [N.B. The CERT target of 154 MtCO (millions) Projected 0.6 2 2 that is sometimes quoted refers to lifetime, not annual, CO 2 0.4 savings. This appears to suggest that the average lifetime of the 1 refurbishments exceeds three decades, which itself appears 0.2
questionable]. The figure of 4.2 MtCO2 also assumes that the UK in households poor fuel of No. 0 0 grant scheme is sufficient to encourage additional private Fuel and light RPI relative to 1990 (=1) 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 investment from the householder, as the fund can only be used Year for part of the capital cost (generally less than 50%). It is therefore suggested that, while the CERT scheme is useful in providing Fig. 2. UK fuel poverty and RPI since 1996. Chart 16 – percentage of the fuel poor that use each payment method (gas), 2006
No gas 23% Direct debit 31%
Pre-payment 12%
Standard credit 34%
The final chart in this section, shows a breakdown of fuel poverty by SAP rating. For more information about SAP ratings, see section 3.4 of this annex. The chart shows a trend that might be expected – as SAP (and so energy efficiency) increases, fuel requirement reduces, and therefore a smaller proportion of households are fuel poor.
Chart 17 C&0D2– percentage,<6"K-.6-$+%*-"43",4/1-,4&21")$"3/-&"54;-.+'"7'")$640-"%$2"-$ of households that are fuel poor by-.*'"-33)6)-$6' SAP bands, 2006
60
50
40
30
20
that are fuel poor 10
0 % of households in SAP band Less than 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-65 Greater than 20 65 5')&*16,QFGXY"ACDD[E" Around half of all households with a SAP less than 20 are fuel poor. These homes will have the highest space!"E" heating F((&188+$3,')&,=&1 costs, which makeG!H!H,I1&&0*1(,5%'*A up the majority" of a household’s energy spend. The proportion" in fuel poverty roughly halves when looking at households between 20 and 30 SAP and then Y1"471-.;-28"5.-"!L!L",4/1)$*")1"+,-"&-%1+"-33)6)-$+",4/1)$*"+'5-"7'"%*-")$"+,-"ST"halves again when moving to 30-40. Only around 2.5% of households with a SAP of greater than:)+,"&-11"+,%$"ZDV"43"5.45-.+)-1")$"+,)1"1+469"%6,)-;)$*"%"_YK".%+)$*"%74;-"dD<"I4/5&-" 65 are fuel poor. A SAP 65 house will typically have loft insulation of 100mm or more, the majority of those with cavity walls will be filled and most will have double glazing in at +,)1"471-.;%+)4$":)+,"+,-"3%6+"+,%+",4/1-,4&21")$"+-..%6-2"5.45-.+)-1"1/33-."3.40"+,-" least some rooms of the house. Very few households where the dwelling has a SAP rating greater ,)*,-1+".%+-1"43"3/-&"54;-.+'8"%$2"+,-"$--2"+4"%22.-11"4/."5.-W!L!L"+-..%6-2",4/1)$*" than 65 are fuel poor (2%); those that are tend to be single person households, often with the )1"5&%)$"+4"1--<"`,%+@1"04.-8"+,-".%+)4$%&-"34."%6+)4$")1"3/.+,-."1+.-$*+,-$-2":,-$" householder under 60 and with low income. :-"64$1)2-."+,-"1,--."%04/$+"43"5.-W!L!L"+-..%6-2",4/1)$*"+,%+".-0%)$1")$"+,-"ST8" %$2"-15-6)%&&'")$"`%&-1<"=%7&-"!"1,4:1"+,%+"5.-W!L!L",4/1)$*"0%9-1"/5"]DV"43" `%&-1@"+4+%&",4/1)$*"1+4698":)+,"+-..%6-2",4/1)$*"0%9)$*"/5"\LV"43"+,)1"1+469"+'5-<" =,/18")$"+4+%&"+,-.-"%.-"%$"-1+)0%+-2"CCZ8DDD"K.-W!L!L"+-..%6-2",4/1-1")$"`%&-18" %664/$+)$*"34."![V"43"+,-"+4+%&",4/1)$*"1+469<"=,)1")1"%"64$1)2-.%7&-"%04/$+"%$2")+")1" 55 Fuel Poverty Statistics Annex .-%14$%7&-"+4"%11/0-"+,%+"%"1/71+%$+)%&"5.454.+)4$"43"+,-1-",4/1-1":)&&",%;-"7--$" 7/)&+"2/.)$*"+,-")$2/1+.)%&".-;4&/+)4$")$"4.2-."+4",4/1-"+,-"0%$'"0)$)$*"6400/$)+)-1" )$"`%&-1<"#$2--28"_,4..469"%$2"S+&-'"ACDD[E"471-.;-"+,%+"+,-".%+)4"43"+-..%6-2" ,4/1)$*")$"`%&-1")1",)*,-."+,%$"+,%+")$"F$*&%$28"_64+&%$28"%$2"b4.+,-.$"#.-&%$2"A%1" 2)15&%'-2")$"3)*/.-"]E<"O-$6-8")+")1"-;)2-$+"+,%+"%22.-11)$*"+,)1"1+469"+'5-")1"%" 5%.+)6/&%.")11/-":)+,)$"`%&-1"%$2":)&&"+,/1".-?/).-"%",)*,"&-;-&"43"%++-$+)4$ Estimated no. of pre-1919 homes in Wales 383,000 30% Total no. of homes in Wales (2008) 1,268,000 Pre-1919 homes - % pre1919 % stock Estimated no. property type homes wide in Wales Detached 83,200 22% 28% Semi detached 56,000 15% 31% Total Terraced End terrace 60,000 16% 11% 226,000 Mid terrace 166,000 43% 22% Flat 18,400 5% 8% Total 383,000 100% 100% ! 5')&*16"`YM"ACDD[E"c);)$*")$"`%&-1"_/.;-'"g"Q%+%"5.-5%.-2"7'"`-&1,"Y11-07&'"M4;-.$0-$+" % pre1919 % stock Pre-1919 homes -tenure Estimated no. homes wide in Wales \! ! Owner occupied 302,000 79% 73% Social housing 14,200 4% 20% Private rented 67,300 18% 7% Total 383,000 100% 100% Pre-1919 homes - main % pre1919 % stock heating fuel Estimated no. homes wide in Wales Mains gas 268,000 70% 78% Oil 65,500 17% 11% Electricity 5% Sample size too small Coal 3% to provide this data LPG 2% Total 383,000 100% Pre-1919 homes - SAP % pre1919 % stock Estimated no. (2005) rating homes wide in Wales * note that SAP bands don't match 0 - 38 142,000 37% 14% * <35 39 - 54 158,000 41% 70% * 35 - 64 55 or more 83,000 22% 16% * 65 or more Total 383,000 100% 100% Pre-1919 homes average SAP rating 42 4+3)&1,E6,O4/1)$*"1+469"2)1+.)7/+)4$"7'"+'5-"43"2:-&&)$*")$"CDD\" ! ! 5')&*16,_,4..469"%$2"S+&-'"ACDDUE, =,/18"I4$1)2-.)$*f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`)&9-1"ACD!DE")2-$+)3'":)2-."1/1+%)$%7)&)+'"*%)$1"+,%+"0%'"7-" )$6/..-2"+,.4/*,"+,)1"%55.4%6,"%$2")$6&/2-f" " • X-2/6)$*"-0)11)4$1"7-1)2-1"IJC" • #$6.-%1)$*"+,-"5.4;)1)4$"43"$%+/.%&"&)*,+8"+,/1"0%R)0)()$*"14&%."*%)$1"%$2" .-2/6)$*"+,-"-$-.*'"2-0%$2"34."-&-6+.)6"&)*,+)$*" • X-2/6)$*":%+-."64$1/05+)4$"%$2"2-0%$21"4$"4/.":%+-."$-+:4.9" • K.4;)2)$*",4/1-,4&2".-6'6&)$*"3%6)&)+)-1" • #$6.-%1)$*"+,-"-$-.*'"-33)6)-$6'"43"&)*,+)$*"%$2",4/1-,4&2"%55&)%$6-1" ! a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h%+-18"CDDZE<" #$2--28"F2:%.21"ACDDDE"4/+&)$-1"%"*-$-.%&"+'54&4*'"34."1/1+%)$%7&-",4/1)$*8":,)6," )$64.54.%+-1"%":)2-".%$*-"43"64054$-$+1"%+"74+,"+,-")$2);)2/%&"7/)&2)$*"%$2" $-)*,74.,442"&-;-&<"O-.-)$8"1/1+%)$%7&-",4/1)$*"%+"+,-"$-)*,74.,442"&-;-&"1,4/&2" 2)15&%'"+,-"34&&4:)$*"3-%+/.-1f" " • O)*,"2-$1)+'8"0)R-2"/1-"%$2"2);-.1)3)-2"+-$/.-" • #$+-*.%+)4$"43"&%$2"/1-"%$2"+.%$154.+"5&%$$)$*" • S.7%$"&%'4/+"+,%+"6.-%+-1"1,-&+-."%$2"1%3-+'" • =,-"-R5&4)+%+)4$"43".-$-:%7&-"-$-.*'"1/55&)-1"A:)$28"1/$"-+6 U! ! <" #/D&';+$3,=1&>'&/0$*1, " " , <"!" 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Reducing the environmental impact of housing Environmental Change Institute Final report University of Oxford 2 1.8 1.6 Existing stock 2005 1.4 New for 1.2 old 2050 1 0.8 Additional new 2050 0.6 Refurbished stock 2050 0.4 Tonnes of carbon per dwelling p.a. dwelling per carbon of Tonnes 0.2 0 0510152025303540 Number of homes (millions) Figure 2 Carbon emissions from refurbished and new-build homes, scenario A C&0D2,J6,F0)11)4$1".-?/).-2"3.40".-3/.7)1,-2"%$2"$-:"7/)&2",40-1"+4"%6,)-;-"%"ZDV"IJC".-2/6+)4$ 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 Existing stock 2005 1 New for old 2050 0.8 0.6 Additional 0.4 new 2050 Refurbished stock 2050 Tonnes of carbon per p.a. dwelling 0.2 0 0510152025303540 Number of homes (millions) " Figure5')&*16,FI#"ACDDZE 3 " Carbon emissions from refurbished and new-build homes, scenario B O4:-;-.8"+,-"0%++-."43"1/6,"&%.*-2 W16%&-"2-04&)+)4$")1"%"6405&)6%+-2"%$2"64$+-$+)4/1" )11/-"%$2"0%$'"%.*/-"+,%+"%".-3/.7)11.8 ,0-$+"%55.4%6,":4/&2"7-"5.-3-.-$+)%&"34."%" :)2-".%$*-"43".-%14$1<"" 1.6 " #..-15-6+);-"43"+,-":)2-."146)%&"%$2"-64$40)6")11/-1".-&%+)$*"+4"2-04&)+)4$8"+,-"1.4 H/1+)3)6%+)4$"34."&%.*-1.2 ExistingW16%&-"6&-%.%$6-"%$2".-7/)&2"4$"-$-.*'"-33)6)-$6'"%$2" stock 2005 -$;).4$0-$+%&"*.4/$21",%1"7--$"34/$2"?/-1+)4$%7&-<"#$2--28":,)&1+"+,-"FOY"ACDDUE" %69$4:&-2*-1"+,%+"$-:&'"7/)&+"5.45-.+)-1"0%'"5-.34.0"7-++-."+,%$"+,41-"7/)&+")$"+,-"1 New for 5%1+8"+,-).".-54.+8"-$+)+&-2">0.8 A'6$%4+0B*$6+%&$,7:$(4+0B*;",)*,&)*,+1"%$")054.+%$+"old 2050 2)1+)$6+)4$"7-+:--$">-0742)-2@"%$2">45-.%+)4$%&@"IJC"-0)11)4$1<"O-.-8">-0742)-2@" 0.6 -0)11)4$1".-&%+-"+4"+,-"IJC"*);-$"433"%1"%".-1/&+"43"+,-"0%+-.)%&1"/1-2")$"+,-Additional",4/1-" 7/)&2)$*"5.46-118"%$2"0.4 >45-.%+)4$%&@"-0)11)4$1".-&%+-"+4"+,-"IJC"*);-$"433"3.40new 2050"+,-" ,4/1-@1"$4.0%&"-$-.*'"/1-ofTonnes carbon dwellingper p.a. 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! C&0D2,M6,Q40-1+)6"-$-.*'"64$1/05+)4$"7'"-$2"/1-, ! ! Figure5')&*16, _,4..469"%$2"S+&-'"AH CDD[E" C&0D2,N6,_4/.6-"43"O-%+"&411"43"+,-"Y;-.%*-"Q:-&&)$*Heat loss of the average dwelling , 400 350 300 C) o 250 200 150 SPECIFIC HEAT LOSS (W/ SPECIFICLOSS HEAT 100 50 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 YEAR Walls Ventilation Windows Roofs Floors Doors ! 5')&*16"_,4..469"%$2"S+&-'"ACDD]E" However, the heat loss of the entire stock has remained fairly constant since the early 1980s. I4$1)2-.)$*"+,%+"+,-"0%H4.)+'"43"4/."-$-.*'")1"/1-2"34.",-%+)$*"15%6-"%$2"+,%+"1/6,"%" This implies that the rate of improvement of the insulation standards of the stock is only just &%.*-"5.454.+)4$"43"+,)1",-%+")1"&41+"+,.4/*,":%&&18";-$+)&%+)4$"%$2":)$24:18")+")1" keeping pace with the tendency towards an overall larger heat loss due to the growth of the stock.140-:,%+"/$1/.5.)1)$*"+,%+"1)*$)3)6%$+"-33)6)-$6'"*%)$1"0%'"7-"0%2-"+,.4/*," )05&-0-$+)$*"1/6,"+,-.0%&"-33)6)-$6'".-+.43)+"0-%1/.-1<"Y22)+)4$%&&'8"+%7&-"C".-;-%&1" Heating standards and efficiencies Expectations as regards heating standards have changed dramatically. In 1970!] only! ! 31% of homes had central heating. By 2001 this had risen to 90%. Most of this growth has been accounted for by gas central heating. Figure I Main form of heating. 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" `,)&-"D0&%,%R'8"+,-">2-16.)5+);-"64054$-$+@8,%)0-2"3)$2"4/+",4:"+,-",4/1-1"%6+/%&&'" 5-.34.0-2"%1",40-1<"=,)1"1-6+)4$":%1"6405&-+-2"+,.4/*,")$+-.;)-:1":)+,"34/." +-$%$+1"%$2":)+,"+,-"1+%33".-154$1)7&-"34."2-;-&45)$*"%$2"0%)$+%)$)$*"+,-",4/1-1<" Cd! ! 718).%8" , =,-"34&&4:)$*"+%7&-"2)15&%'1".-1/&+1"3.40"5%.+"4$-"43"+,-"1+/2'<"=,-"ST"%;-.%*-" 64&/0$",%1"7--$"%22-2"+4"%&&4:"%"6405%.)14$"43"+,-"3)*/.-1<" , Average UK House Number 11 12 13 14 household estimate 30/11/08 ‐ 12/01/09 ‐ 12/01/09 ‐ 12/01/09 ‐ Time Monitored: 01/12/09 01/12/09 01/12/09 01/12/09 1 Year (366 days) (323 days) (323 days) (323 days) Household 4 (1 adult, 3 3 (1 adult, 2 6 (4 adults, 2 6 (4 adults, 2 2.4 (1.8 adults, Occupancy children) children) children) children) 0.5 children)* Total electricity 5371 3247 10847 10292 4457** used (KWh) Average electricity used per day 14.67 10.05 33.58 31.86 12.21 (KWh) Total PV electricity 1156.5 1153 1166.5 1274 - produced (KWh) Average PV electricity 3.16 3.57 3.61 3.94 - produced per day (KWh) Total GSHP 3612 2400 5250 5256 - output (KWh) Average GSHP 9.87 7.43 16.25 16.27 - output per day Average GSHP contribution to 7.30 (74%) 4.90 (66%) 4.23 (26%) 3.25 (20%) - heating per day (KWh) Average GSHP contribution to 2.57 (26%) 2.53 (34%) 12.02 (74%) 13.02 (80%) - heating water per day (KWh) Total CO2 emissions 2.257 1.27 5.874 5.473 About 6 (Tonnes) Average daily CO2 6.166 3.93 18.19 16.94 16.44 emissions (Kg) Average daily 420 (Wales water usage 110.22 155.84 1142.39 976.05 average)*** (Litres) ! 5')&*16,h4/$*"ACD!DE8"nJb_"ACD!!E8"nnQaFXX"ACDDUE8"nnn`-&1,"`%+-."ACD!DE" Q-15)+-"1)*$)3)6%$+"2)33-.-$+)%+)4$")$"+,-"-&-6+.)6)+'"%$2":%+-."/1-8"+,-"IJC"-0)11)4$1" 34."-;-.'",4/1-".-0%)$-2"7-&4:"+,-"$%+)4$%&"%;-.%*-<"Y&+,4/*,"+,-"1%05&-"1)(-")1" 10%&&8")+")1"-;)2-$+"+,%+")$6.-%1-2"466/5%$6'"6&-%.&'"64..-&%+-1":)+,".)1)$*"-&-6+.)6)+'" /1-"%$2"IJC"-0)11)4$1<"`,)&1+"+,)1")1"+4"7-"-R5-6+-28"+,-.-"%.-"140-")$+-.-1+)$*" ;%.)%+)4$1"+4"64$1)2-.8":,)6,",)*,&)*,+"+,-"-R+-$+"+4":,)6,"14W6%&&-2">7-,%;)4/.%&@" 3%6+4.1"0%'"%33-6+"%6+/%&"-$-.*'"/1-"%$2"IJC"-0)11)4$1"43"%"2:-&&)$*<"" C\! ! 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