Issue 65 Monday 15 February 2021 www.anker-report.com Contents Love is not in the air for Europe’s air- 1 Love is not in the air for Europe’s airlines as COVID mutations cause alarm for governments. lines as COVID mutations cause alarm 4 Amsterdam still #1 international destination from UK post-pandemic; Valentine’s Day (14th February), which fell this year on a down 28%. Domestic load factor was an impressive 81.6%. In top 20 includes Greek and Turkish Sunday, would normally have been an opportunity for Europe’s comparison, international ASKs were down 67% in December, holiday hotspots. airlines to generate some extra revenue, as those of a romantic and international RPKs were down 77%, resulting in an disposition whisked their loved one away for a lovely weekend, international load factor of just 58%. 5 Latest European route news; 19 new where they could be indulged and pampered. Russia and Turkey follow non-European trend routes from 14 airlines analysed. Sadly, this year, the spread and concern regarding the newest 6 Sarajevo to welcome one aircraft In Europe, things are a little less clear cut, as most European mutations of COVID-19, meant that many countries have been countries are far smaller, and therefore alternative transport Wizz Air base in May with nine new increasing restrictions regarding international travel and raising modes (rail, coach, car) are more viable on domestic routes. routes; Istanbul currently top route. their quarantine requirements still further. As a result, many Russia is Europe’s largest country and, not surprisingly, 8 Amsterdam was second busiest carriers across Europe have continued to cut back on their domestic traffic is performing reasonably well here, at around international airport in December in passenger services. 80% of the previous year in December. During the summer Europe after Istanbul IST. Domestic recovers faster in big non-European countries months of August and September, Russian domestic demand was almost at the same level as in 2019, thanks to a booming 9 Mini airport profiles of Konya in The ANKER Report continues to collect passenger data from over 400 airports across Europe, and also national data from domestic holiday market. Meanwhile, international traffic (from Turkey, Makhachkala in Russia and Moscow’s three main airports) is currently at less than 20% of Venice Treviso in Italy. several non-European markets, namely Australia, China, India and the US. While the date of the most recent data publicly the previous year’s figure. 10 Lagos in Nigeria is leading non- available varies, the overall pattern for these non-European Turkey, also saw domestic demand peak during the summer at Middle East long-haul route from UK markets is consistent. Domestic traffic is recovering faster than around 60% of normal and has now dropped off to around 40% in December. international traffic. The most extreme example of this is China, of the previous year in December and January. This is still where domestic passenger numbers, according to CAAC, had ahead of international demand, which has been at around 30%- Welcome recovered to over 90% of the previous year’s demand in 35% of normal since September. This is, however, the highest September, October and November. In stark contrast, international figure for any of the countries analysed here. international traffic to and from China has been languishing at More nuanced picture in most European countries well below 5% of the previous year’s figure ever since the pandemic struck, with no noticeable improvement in the most However, elsewhere in Europe there is a more mixed picture. recent months for which data is available. Taking the five biggest western European countries for air travel in turn; in France domestic traffic was at 40% in In Australia, where international services are currently few and December while international was at under 20%, in Germany far between, international demand has been down around 98% domestic demand was at 10% while international was at 12%, every month since April, with the government and national in Italy domestic traffic was at 23% while international was at carrier Qantas, making it clear that they are not expecting 8%, in Spain (in January) domestic was at 26% and international significant change before the end of the year. Melbourne has at 11%, while finally, the UK was at 13% for domestic and 10% just entered another lockdown as a result of a few new cases (not deaths), even The last month has brought little good while the Australian Open tennis championships were taking place there. news for Europe’s beleaguered airlines Domestic demand is doing better. In and airports. Governments across the November it had only just passed 20% of region are once again making the previous year, but had been showing international air travel harder, despite slow but steady improvements each month the roll out of the various vaccines since August. across the region. However, this has India and US seeing steady gains not gone as quickly in many countries In India, where total official COVID deaths as had been hoped and with the impact have been recorded at around 155,000 of the new mutations causing concern, (resulting in a death per one million of Europe’s summer holiday market is population figure of around 110, less than looking a lot less certain than it was a one-tenth of the figure applicable to the few months ago. UK and US), international traffic had reached around 20% of the previous year’s In this issue we again look at global figure in December, while domestic traffic traffic trends to see how domestic and was now at almost 60%. Both figures have been rising steadily since June. international markets are evolving and take a closer look at Amsterdam and In the US, where November figures are still the most recent available, domestic traffic Sarajevo airports, plus traffic trends plateaued at around 40% of the previous from the UK last year. Despite all the year’s figure in October and November, challenges, we still have analysis of while international traffic has been almost 20 new route launches. recovering steadily and reached 30% of last year’s demand in November. Ralph Anker To conclude, in all four non-European [email protected] markets, domestic demand has clearly been recovering more quickly than international demand. However, all four of these countries are large and alternative transport modes for some domestic travel may be extremely time consuming. Another large country where domestic traffic has recovered far more quickly than international traffic is Brazil. According to ANAC, domestic RPKs in Brazil were down just 30% in December while ASKs were The ANKER Report Issue 65: Monday 15 February 2021 1 for international in December. Germany’s domestic recovery had reached 20% in Q3, but has since seen a significant collapse, while the UK’s domestic recovery had been at around 25% in August and September, before dropping dramatically. Europe’s top 30 airlines in February by flights With ‘staycations’ looking like they will again be popular in 2021, domestic demand is likely to be significant in many European markets. A look at Europe’s top 30 airlines, based on flights offered from European airports in the first week of February, shows that for 26 of them, a domestic route has the highest frequency. The exceptions are Austrian Airlines, KLM, Ryanair and Wizz Air. If we look at the top five routes for the 30 airlines, comprising a total of 150 routes, just 25 of them (17%) are international connections (shown on a grey background). Ranking Europe’s airlines by flights (rather than seats or ASKs) produces some interesting results. There are two Turkish carriers in the top six, and six Russian airlines in the top 30. Norway’s regional carrier Widerøe ranks fourth, Binter Canarias ranks 13th and Greece’s Sky Express 21st. Conversely, Europe’s leading (U)LCCs are performing poorly at present; easyJet is 12th, Ryanair 15th, Wizz Air 16th, Vueling 23rd and Norwegian 28th. And British Airways could do no better than 27th, beaten among flag In Italy, Ryanair is expanding its domestic network from Eastern Airways and Loganair continue to expand their -carriers by Alitalia, Austrian Airlines, Finnair and LOT. its new Venice TSF base (as well as several other domestic networks in the UK, while easyJet is also Many new domestic services announced for S21 airports), while EGO Airways (a new carrier using E190s) resuming service to Newquay (from Glasgow and Looking ahead at what airlines have already announced plans to launch at least 10 new domestic routes, several Manchester) and reintroducing flights between for this summer, many have revealed plans to expand from Forli. Aberdeen and London LGW. So far, Wizz Air has resisted their domestic operations. Air France is planning to use In Norway, Wizz Air’s relatively new domestic network the temptation to enter the UK domestic market. its in-house LCC Transavia to launch a number of new may face additional competition this summer from Other carriers are still betting on the resumption of domestic routes linking French regional airports, notably newcomer Flyr, while in Sweden, Air Leap has been holiday traffic in summer, with Wizz Air announcing a Brest and Montpellier. adding new domestic routes. new base at Bourgas in Bulgaria and Jet2.com adding Top 5 routes by weekly frequency for Europe’s top 30 airlines in February 2021 Airline Total flights* #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 Turkish Airlines 3621 (-50%) IST - ESB (55) IST - ADB (42) IST - AYT (42) IST - ADA (40) IST