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Setting the scene:

The European market

CONNECT – Vilnius

Monday 14 March 2016

Ralph Anker

Chief Analyst

anna.aero

[email protected]

What’s coming up …

• Developments in Europe 2014-2016 • Passenger demand by country 2015

• European trends in S16

• Baltic states and airBaltic • LCC trends

• easyJet, Ryanair and Wizz Air

• Exchange rates • GDP forecasts • Conclusions

2

Developments in Europe 2014

• Legacy carriers still struggling for profitability

• Etihad’s involvement in European carriers

– Aer Lingus, Air Serbia, airberlin, Alitalia (pending)

• Ryanair opens new bases including Athens (ATH), Brussels
(BRU), Lisbon (LIS) and Rome (FCO)

• easyJet opens new bases in Hamburg and Naples • Vueling grows outside of Spain (turns 10 on 1 July) • Norwegian’s long-haul expansion with 787s • germanwings completing Lufthansa network transfer • Wizz Air up to 20 bases (10th birthday celebrated) • Turkish Airlines still growing at IST

– Growing secondary hub at SAW (taking on Pegasus)

3

Developments in Europe 2015

• Cheap fuel!!! • Many legacy carriers still struggling for profitability

• Alitalia rescue by Etihad Airways approved

• Lufthansa/germanwings/Eurowings evolution • IAG trying to acquire Aer Lingus

• Gone: Cyprus Airways, eurolot, Air Lituanica, Estonian Air

• Mixed response to growth of MEB3 carriers • Ryanair new bases in Berlin SXF, Bratislava, Copenhagen

and Ponta Delgado

• easyJet new bases in Amsterdam, Porto • Wizz Air new bases in Debrecan, Kosice, Lublin

• Turkish Airlines still growing – over 240 routes

4

Developments in Europe 2016

• Fuel even cheaper!!!

• Many European legacy carriers making money, but …

– IAG doing very well, now including Aer Lingus

• Ryanair’s new bases in Belfast, Bucharest, Corfu,

Hamburg, Ibiza, Milan MXP, Nuremberg, Santiago de Compostela, Timisoara

• easyJet’s new bases in Barcelona and Venice • Transavia’s new base in Munich • Wizz Air’s new base in Iasi

• Formation of A4E “alliance” against aviation taxation

• Still no decision on London runway … • … Berlin’s “new” airport still not open

5

European airport traffic 2015

Change in total annual passengers across all airports

35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10%
5% 0%
-5%
-10% -15%

All countries: +5.0% to 1.9 billion

6

FIGUST countries 2015

Country

UK

Airport pax % vly >1m*

254.7m 216.5m

207.4m

181.4m 170.6m

156.8m

+5.5% 20 (-1) +3.8% 17 (+1)

+5.9% 20 (+1)

+9.3% 17 (+2) +3.5% 17 (+1)

+4.3% 23

Germany

Spain

Turkey France**

Italy

*Number of airports with more than 1 million annual passengers **Includes Basel-Mulhouse (BSL) airport.

Source: UK CAA, ADV , Aen a, www.aeroport.fr, Assaeroporti, DHMI

7

Top 15 intra-European international pairs

Change in monthly one-way seat capacity Jun16 v Jun15

(Monthly one-way seat capacity in June 2016 - millions)

  • -10%
  • -5%
  • 0%
  • 5%
  • 10%
  • 15%

19.0%

20%

UK - Spain (2.446m)

9.4%
10.1%

Germany - Spain (1.559m) Germany - Italy (0.892m)
Germany - Turkey (0.810m)
UK - Italy (0.797m)

-6.8%
12.6%

1.8%

UK - Germany (0.784m)
UK - France (0.694m)

13.8%
6.3%
6.6%

Spain - Italy (0.676m)
Spain - France (0.658m)
UK - Ireland (0.637m)

10.4%
5.6%

France - Italy (0.625m)
UK - Netherlands (0.537m)
UK - Greece (0.528m)

7.8%
9.5%
5.2%
6.5%

Germany - France (0.469m) Germany - Greece (0.444m)

8

Top 14 European domestic markets

Change in monthly seat capacity (Jun16 v Jun15)

(Monthly seats in June 2016)

  • -20%
  • -15%
  • -10%
  • -5%
  • 0%
  • 5%
  • 10%
  • 15%
  • 20%

6.2%

Turkey (5.317m)

1.6%

Spain (3.789m) Italy (3.456m)

-0.7%

13.0%

Germany (3.217m)
France (2.918m)

0.8%

-18.7%

Russia (2.744m)

0.5%

United Kingdom (2.167m)
Norway (2.050m) Greece (1.032m)

-4.1%
13.9%
10.9%

Sweden (0.948m) Portugal (0.519m) Finland (0.291m)
Denmark (0.206m)
Poland (0.206m)

16.4%

-2.7%

-9.6%

-0.5%

9

Top 50 Airlines at European airports

Change in monthly seat capacity

Source: OAG Schedules Analyser for June 2016 and June 2015

45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10%
5% 0%
-5%
-10% -15%

Total all carriers: +4.7%

10

Baltic airport traffic 2001-2015

Annual passengers (millions)

12 11 10
9

Palanga (PLQ)

0.75

2.17

Kaunas (KUN) Tallinn (TLL) Vilnius (VNO) Riga (RIX)

0.72

2.02

0.69

1.96

0.83

2.21

0.87

1.91
3.33

5.16

8

0.81

1.38

0.41

1.81
2.95

4.81

2.66

4.79

7

0.46

1.35

0.39

1.73
2.20

4.77

1.71

5.11

6

1.37

4.66

2.04

3.69

1.54
1.30

4.07

5

1.72

3.16

1.40

4

1.45

2.49

3

1.28

1.87

1.00

2

0.72 0.72

0.71

0.96

1.06

0.61 0.64

0.63

0.57 0.58

0.62

10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

11

Baltic airport seasonality

Monthly passengers in 2015

600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000
50,000
0

Riga Vilnius Tallinn

  • Jan
  • Feb
  • Mar
  • Apr
  • May
  • Jun
  • Jul
  • Aug
  • Sep
  • Oct
  • Nov
  • Dec

12

Top 15 airlines from Baltic airports in 2015

Departing seats

(% change versus 2014)

  • 0
  • 500,000
  • 1,000,000
  • 1,500,000 2,000,000

2,249,330

2,500,000

airBaltic (-0.8%)
Ryanair (+11.1%)

1,507,842
819,360

Wizz Air (+39.8%)

425,846
405,472

Estonian Air (-9.0%)
Lufthansa (-4.1%)

312,637

Aeroflot (+51.3%)

286,280
231,922 228,184
150,823 143,285 131,717
96,985

Finnair (+11.3%)
SAS (+42.0%)
Norwegian (+18.6%)
Turkish Airlines (+19.5%)
LOT Polish Airlines (+7.6%)
Avies (+6.0%)
Ukraine Int'l Airlines (+63.3%)
Air Lituanica (-54.9%)
Brussels Airlines (+79.4%)

77,916
55,827

13

Top 15 country markets from Baltic airports

Departing scheduled seats in 2015 (000s)

(% change versus 2014)

  • 0
  • 100
  • 200
  • 300
  • 400
  • 500
  • 600
  • 700
  • 800
  • 900
  • 1,000

954
947

UK (+10.9%)
Germany (+10.5%)
Russia (-4.2%)

594

577

Norway (+8.9%) Finland (+1.4%)
Denmark (+5.9%) Sweden (+25.9%)
Latvia (+4.0%)

438
374
350
336

314

Italy (-1.3%)

254

Estonia (-8.6%)

227
218

Netherlands (+7.6%)
Belgium (+37.1%)
France (+13.4%)
Lithuania (-19.2%)
Spain (+15.5%)

212

210

201

14

Top 15 airBaltic routes in S16 by ASKs

Weekly one-way ASKs in August 2016 (millions)

[Weekly departures - from RIX unless stated otherwise]

  • 0.0
  • 0.5
  • 1.0
  • 1.5
  • 2.0
  • 2.5
  • 3.0

2.76
2.68

London (LGW) [12] Moscow (SVO) [24]
Paris (CDG) [10]

2.20
2.12

Amsterdam (AMS) [12]
Munich (MUC) [12]
Tbilisi (TBS) [5]

1.86
1.54
1.41
1.38
1.28
1.18

Vienna (VIE) [12] Berlin (TXL) [12] Zurich (ZRH) [7]
Tel Aviv (TLV) [3]

1.17 1.17 1.15 1.15

TLL - Amsterdam (AMS) [7]
Barcelona (BCN) [4]
Milan (MXP) [6] Oslo (OSL) [19]

0.99

Copenhagen (CPH) [19]

15

LCCs still growing in 2015 …

pax up 17% pax up 7% pax up 21% pax up 1% pax up 13% pax up 22% to 101.4 million to 69.9 million to 26.3 million* to 25.8 million to 22.3 million to 19.2 million

* anna.aero estimate

Other carriers:

Lufthansa Group (107.7m) [includes Austrian, SWISS, germanwings]

Air France/KLM (89.8m) IAG (BA/Iberia/Vueling) (88.3m) Turkish Airlines (61.2m) Aeroflot (39.4m), airberlin & SAS (both 30.2m)

16

European LCCs

Average weekly route frequency in summer (2006-2016)

12 11 10
9

easyJet (U2) Vueling (VY) Eurowings (4U/EW)

8

Ryanair (FR)

7

Transavia (HV/TO)

65

Jet2.com (LS)

4

Norwegian (DY/D8)

3

Wizz Air (W6)

21

Volotea (V7)

0

  • S06
  • S07
  • S08
  • S09
  • S10
  • S11
  • S12
  • S13
  • S14
  • S15
  • S16

17

LCCs - % of new routes with competition

In 2013, 2014 and 2015

  • 0%
  • 10%
  • 20%
  • 30%
  • 40%
  • 50%
  • 60%
  • 70%
  • 80%
  • 90%
  • 100%

52%
53%
50%

Norwegian easyJet Vueling Ryanair Volotea Wizz Air

2013

42%
51%
47%

2014 2015

56%
57%
46%
9%
27%
39%
29%
36% 36%
10%
11% 12%

79%
90%

Spirit Airlines
Southwest Airlines
Allegiant Air

85%
29%

29%
48%
7%
8%
10%

18

PELOCO5 head-to-head competition in S16

Number of competing airport pairs

  • 0
  • 5
  • 10
  • 15
  • 20
  • 25
  • 30
  • 35
  • 40
  • 45
  • 50
  • 55

55

Ryanair v Vueling Ryanair v easyJet

42
34

easyJet v Vueling

23

Ryanair v Norwegian easyJet v Norwegian
Ryanair v Wizz Air
Vueling v Norwegian
Vueling v Wizz Air easyJet v Wizz Air
Norwegian v Wizz Air

22
17
11
7
2

1

19

Smaller markets: Gibraltar (+34%), Morocco (-42%), Egypt (-73%) Recently withdrawn from Russia, Tunisia

20

New country market: Montenegro (Tivat); Tivat only new destination

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  • 1 181 443 22,21% 1 259 208 27,29% 3 127 462 58,80% 2 437 851 52,83

    1 181 443 22,21% 1 259 208 27,29% 3 127 462 58,80% 2 437 851 52,83

    Domestic and international scheduled operations- passenger traffic by carriers in the first quarter of 2014 and 2015 2015 2014 market market Carrier number passengers share number passengers share Ryanair 1 1 674 974 31,49% 1 1 272 365 27,57% LOT Polish Airlines + Eurolot SA 2 1 105 874 20,79% 2 1 203 648 26,08% Wizz Air 3 1 075 011 20,21% 3 863 876 18,72% Lufthansa 4 396 745 7,46% 4 372 919 8,08% Norwegian Air Shuttle 5 147 040 2,76% 6 97 050 2,10% EasyJet 6 113 720 2,14% 5 115 943 2,51% SAS 7 78 237 1,47% 8 77 808 1,69% Air France 8 73 628 1,38% 7 77 839 1,69% Eurolot SA 9 69 916 1,31% 10 50 225 1,09% Air Berlin 10 62 462 1,17% 9 76 740 1,66% KLM Royal Dutch Airlines 11 44 859 0,84% 11 48 393 1,05% Swiss International Air Lines 12 44 537 0,84% 12 45 678 0,99% Emirates 13 43 317 0,81% 14 38 472 0,83% British Airways 14 41 070 0,77% 15 35 724 0,77% Aeroflot-Russian Airlines 15 39 258 0,74% 13 41 989 0,91% Alitalia 16 33 642 0,63% 17 26 300 0,57% Germanwings 17 32 906 0,62% 31 659 0,01% Austrian Airlines 18 32 341 0,61% 16 28 384 0,62% Brussels Airlines 19 27 300 0,51% - - - Finnair 20 24 366 0,46% 18 23 035 0,50% Qatar Airways 21 21 965 0,41% 19 21 631 0,47% Turkish Airlines (THY) 22 18 931 0,36% 20 15 645 0,34% Ukraine International Airlines 23 17 932 0,34% 21 12 917 0,28% Aegean Airlines 24 11 990 0,23% 25 8 700 0,19% TAP Portugal 25 10 608 0,20% 24 9 693 0,21% Other carriers 76 066 1,43% 49 054 1,06% Polish carriers* 1 181 443 22,21% 1 259 208 27,29% LCC** 3 127 462 58,80% 2 437 851 52,83% Total passengers 5 318 695 4 614 687 Source:
  • Wizz Air & Ryanair Lead

    Wizz Air & Ryanair Lead

    Issue 51 Monday 11th November 2019 www.anker-report.com Contents CEE growing twice as fast as western 1 CEE growing twice as fast as western Europe; Wizz Air, Ryanair and LOT have 40% of market. Europe; Wizz Air & Ryanair lead way 2 IAG acquisition of Air Europa would give it over 60% of capacity at The ANKER Report was in Warsaw last week presenting at the Wizz Air and Ryanair are leading CEE22 airlines CEE Aviation Conference. This article features a number of Since 2004 scheduled seat capacity across the CEE22 region has Madrid and almost 65% of seats slides from that presentation. The full presentation can be between Madrid and S America. grown every year except 2009. In 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 downloaded as a separate pdf from The ANKER Report website. capacity grew by more than 10%, but growth has slowed in 3 Focus on: Baltics, Denmark and The analysis focussed on the CEE22 countries which were 2019 to around 6%, partly as a result of the grounding of the Germany. defined as Albania, Armenia, Belarus, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Boeing MAX fleet. LOT Polish Airlines has 15 of the type while 4 European route launch news and Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Ryanair was supposed to have started taking delivery of the analysis at the start of the W19/20 Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North type earlier in the year. season covering 40 airlines and Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Wizz Air and Ryanair are the biggest carriers in the region and almost 250 new services.
  • Facts and Figures 2012 (1.5 MB .Pdf)

    Facts and Figures 2012 (1.5 MB .Pdf)

    Facts & 2012 Figures Introduction This publication contains Facts and Figures on Schiphol Group for the year 2012. This information has been grouped into three categories: ‘About Schiphol Group’, ‘Schiphol as location’ and ‘Airport Network’. More information on Schiphol Group can be found on the Internet. Please visit www.schiphol.nl and www.youtube.com/schiphol Information on Amsterdam Airport Schiphol can be found as well on www.schiphol.nl or telephone + 31 (0)20 794 0800. Published by Schiphol Group P.O. Box 7501 1118 ZG Schiphol The Netherlands Facts & Figures 2012 1 Contents About Schiphol Group 5 Corporate Responsibility 36 Key Figures 7 Traffic volume 8 Awards 41 Investments 9 Business areas 11 Airport Network 43 Aviation business area 12 Other commercial activities 44 Consumer Products & Services business area 14 Rotterdam The Hague Airport 45 Real Estate business area 16 Eindhoven Airport 45 Alliances & Participations business area 18 Lelystad Airport 46 History 20 Terminal 4, John F. Kennedy Airport, New York (USA) 46 Brisbane Airport (Australia) 47 Schiphol as location 23 Aruba Airport (Aruba) 47 Airport Zone 23 Aéroports de Paris (France) 48 Parking, shops and catering outlets 24 Top Ten Major European Airports 25 General Information 51 Traffic and Transport 26 Did you know…? 51 Passenger Profile 33 Other Publications 52 Employment 34 Address, telephone numbers, websites 52 2 Schiphol Group Facts & Figures 2012 3 Amsterdam Airport Schiphol About Schiphol Group 317 direct destinations Schiphol Group is an airport company with Amsterdam Airport Schiphol as its main airport. We aim to create sustainable value for our stakeholders, 51 million passengers, 1.5 million tonnes of cargo taking into account the different interests they have.
  • Airlines List in Outside

    Airlines List in Outside

    Partner Airline List (Ticketprinter outside BSP) 23 March, 2012 The following list provides an overview of Hahn Air Partner Airlines available in your market. Hahn Air offers 243 airlines for single and multi airline ticketing and 2 airlines for multi airline ticketing only (marked in orange colour). Please always use Quick Check on www.hahnair.com prior to ticketing. 1X Branson AirExpress CU Cubana de Aviacion LG Luxair SP SATA Air Acores 2I Star Perú CX CATHAY PACIFIC Airways LI Liat SS Corsairfly 2J Air Burkina CY Cyprus Airways LO LOT Polish Airlines SV Saudi Arabian Airlines 2K AeroGal Aerolineas Galapagos CZ China Southern Airlines LP Lan Peru SW Air Namibia 2L Helvetic Airways D2 Severstal Aircompany LR Lacsa SX SkyWork Airlines 2M Moldavian Airlines D6 Interair South Africa LW Pacific Wings Airlines SY Sun Country Airlines 2N Nextjet DC Golden Air LY EL AL Israel Airlines T4 TRIP Linhas Aéreas 2W Welcome Air DG South East Asian Airlines M7 Marsland Aviation TA TACA 3B Job Air - Central Connect DN Senegal Airlines M9 Motor Sich Airlines JSC TB Jetairfly.com 3E Air Choice One DV JSC Air Company Scat MD Air Madagascar TF Malmö Aviation 3L InterSky EI Aer Lingus ME Middle East Airlines TK Turkish Airlines 3P Tiara Air N.V. EK Emirates MF Xiamen Airlines TM LAM - Linhas Aereas 4J Somon Air ET Ethiopian Airlines MH Malaysia Airlines TN Air Tahiti Nui 4M Lan Argentina EY Etihad Airways MI SilkAir TU Tunis Air 4Q Safi Airways F7 Darwin Airline SA MK Air Mauritius U6 Ural Airlines 5C Nature Air F9 Frontier Airlines MU China Eastern Airlines
  • Bart Matusewicz Vice President Operations & Maintenance B.Matusewicz@Eurolot.Com T: +48 22 606 95 21 M: +48 667 694 129

    Bart Matusewicz Vice President Operations & Maintenance [email protected] T: +48 22 606 95 21 M: +48 667 694 129

    Modern, dynamically developing European airline Eurolot S.A. began its business activity in 1996 (wet lease operations for LOT Polish Airlines) Eurolot is a joint stock company, owned by the State Treasury (62.1% ) and TFSilesia (37.9%) Our fleet consists of 11 modern turboprop Bombardier Q400 NextGen, 3 ATR 72-200 and 3 Embraer 175 (2 opereate for Republic of Poland) Current fleet projects: 3 ATR 72-200 sale, 3 Q400 on order and other projects IOSA cert, own Part 145 Organisation and Flight Training Organisation Out staff currently is 350 employees incl. 25 contracted pilots and cabin crew members Areas of business activity: ACMI, K2 - own network, charters and ad-hoc operations (within 2 hours from order) We are looking for new opportunities Own network started in 2011 with web-only distribution, now 4 GDS systems, 3 interline agreements Eastern Europe Opportunities : - Eastern Europe markets growing faster even than Poland or EU (ie. Ukraine, Russia) - markets greatly underserved Challenges: - old bilateral agreements limiting the possibilities of development - protective market approach (eg. designation necessary to operate flights, limited number of carriers allowed to operate, predesigned entry points etc.) - different distribution model (limited internet access, low credit card penetration, high percentage of agency bookings) Polish regional market – potential… High growth potential, low market maturity: - growth rate in Poland - 3% (2013 vs. 2012) - increasing importance of regional markets (60% of all traffic from Polish airports)