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Regional Telecoms Global Equity Research Sector Flash Fixed-line telecoms Russia 28 August 2008 Regional telecoms TPs cut 7%-37% on tighter margins ● The regional telecoms’ non-consolidated RAS EBITDA margins lost 1pp-4pp y-o-y in 1H08 due to outpacing cost growth. Operating expenses (less depreciation) rose 8%-15% y-o-y in rubles (compared to top-line growth of 4%-8%), mainly driven by higher staff costs, interconnect payments and SG&A. As a result, four of the seven incumbents saw EBITDA decline 2%-7% y-o-y in rubles. ● We expect the underlying salary and interconnect cost increases to be reflected in the incumbents’ 1H08 IFRS results (due in September) despite the accounting differences. We reduce our 2008F EBITDA estimates for all the regional telecoms except Dalsvyaz by 5%- 15%, and now expect EBITDA margins of 28%-35% vs. our previous estimate of 32%-36%. ● We raise our projections for capex on acquisitions this year to reflect the companies’ spending on minority stakes in Hybrid Print Systems. We increase our 2008F capex/sales ratio for Centertelecom from 19% to 29%, as the company raised its 2008F capex guidance. ● We cut our 12-month TPs by 7%-37% due to lower operational forecasts and higher capex projections. We downgrade Centertelecom from Buy to Hold, following a 37% decrease in its 12-month TP to $0.49. We upgrade Southern Telecom from Sell to Hold due to the stock’s recent weakness, and maintain our Buy ratings for North-West Telecom, VolgaTelecom, Uralsvyazinform, Sibirtelecom and Dalsvyaz. ● Our top picks are Dalsvyaz and VolgaTelecom, given their upsides of 116% and 83%, respectively, to our new target prices and the fact that their 2008F EV/EBITDA multiples are below 3X. TPS CUT 7%-37%, FIVE INCUMBENTS STILL BUY ON UNDERPERFORMANCE As of August 26, % Closing Cost of Old New 2008 Old TP New TP chg. price Upside equity rec. rec. NW Telecom 1.26 1.02 -19% 0.85 20.5% 18.2% Buy Buy Centertelecom 0.78 0.49 -37% 0.41 22.2% 22.3% Buy Hold VolgaTelecom 5.70 5.12 -10% 2.80 82.8% 19.9% Buy Buy Southern Telecom 0.13 0.11 -12% 0.086 27.6% 39.9% Sell Hold Uralsvyazinform 0.064 0.054 -15% 0.031 76.4% 18.5% Buy Buy Sibirtelecom 0.10 0.086 -14% 0.056 58.5% 21.9% Buy Buy Nadezhda Golubeva, CFA (UniCredit Aton) Dalsvyaz 5.60 5.19 -7% 2.40 116.2%26.0% Buy Buy Equity Analyst +7 495 777-88-34 Source: Bloomberg; UniCredit Global Research estimates [email protected] Anna Kurbatova (UniCredit Aton) Equity Analyst +7 495 777-88-29 [email protected] Bayerische Hypo- und Vereinsbank AG ● UniCredit CAIB Group ● UniCredit Aton page 1 See last pages for disclaimer. 28 August 2008 Global Equity Research Fixed-line telecoms TPs cut 7%-37% on tighter margins The incumbents’ top-line growth under RAS slowed to the single digits in 1H08 on the weak performance of regulated business segments. RAS revenue grew 4%-8% y-o-y in rubles in the first half, while IFRS revenue rose by 8%-21% in 2007, confirming our conservative model projections. The main reason for the weak revenue dynamics was the freezing of regulated tariffs and the introduction of unfavorable regulatory changes (the elimination of the long-distance compensation charge and the fee for interconnect point maintenance). Five of the seven incumbents showed changes in local revenue of -2% to 2% y-o-y in 1H08 (in the absence of tariff-based growth drivers) vs. increases of 4%-15% a year ago when three new tariff plans were introduced. Southern Telecom and Dalsvyaz reported above-average local revenue growth, with the latter raising its unlimited tariffs from July 2007, and the former introducing tariff plans in new regions. Payments from other operators fell 4%- 20% y-o-y in rubles in 1H08, and intra-zonal revenues were largely flat y-o-y. THE REGIONAL TELECOMS' TOP-LINE GROWTH SLOWED TO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS YEAR 25% 20% 15% 10% % chg. y-o-y (in rubles) (in y-o-y chg. % 5% 0% North West Centertelecom VolgaTelecom Southern Uralsvyazinform Sibirtelecom Dalsvyaz* Telecom Telecom * Organic top-line growth, excl. the consolidation of Sakhatelecom 2007 IFRS revenue growth 1H08 RAS revenue growth Source: Company data; UniCredit Global Research estimates Cellular services, data transmission and VAS are the key top-line drivers. Broadband subscriber bases reached a combined total for the seven incumbents of 2.5mn as of end- June, and are up 29%-48% YTD (54%-195% y-o-y). However, broadband ARPU has fallen significantly to 26% y-o-y in dollars, as new subscribers tend to choose cheaper tariffs, and in large cities the incumbents must offer lower pricing to compete with alternative providers. Total revenue from data transmission and VAS surged 44%-69% y-o-y in rubles in 1H08, with their share in non-consolidated revenue rising to 13%-25% from 8%-16% a year ago. Bayerische Hypo- und Vereinsbank AG ● UniCredit CAIB Group ● UniCredit Aton page 2 2 28 August 2008 Global Equity Research Fixed-line telecoms REVENUES FROM CORE REGULATED SERVICES WERE FLAT TO NEGATIVE IN 1H08 Lacking tariff-based growth drivers, local revenues stagnated Interconnect revenues fell in 1H08 due to regulatory changes 20% 10% 5% 15% 0% 10% -5% 5% -10% 0% -15% % chg. y-o-y (in rubles) % chg. y-o-y (in rubles) (in y-o-y chg. % -20% -5% -25% NW Sibir- Volga telecom telecom Center- Telecom Telecom Telecom inform Southern Dalsvyaz Sibir- Volga Uralsvyaz- telecom telecom Center- Telecom Telecom inform Southern 1H07 local revenues 1H08 local revenues Dalsvyaz Uralsvyaz- Uralsvyaz- Source: Company data; UniCredit Global Research estimates Our top-line estimates for the regional telecoms changed marginally after the incorporation of 2007 IFRS and 1H08 RAS results. We expect consolidated top-line growth of 4%-9% in rubles (7%-13% in dollars) this year, with Dalsvyaz showing the strongest growth thanks to its large footprint in broadband and VAS. We project the incumbents’ revenue growth accelerating next year to 11%-14% in rubles (9%-12% in dollars) due to an expected increase in local tariffs of 6%-12% in rubles. We see upside risk to our 2008F top-line estimates for the regional telecoms if the companies raise their unlimited tariffs over the next few months. Uralsvyazinform reportedly plans to increase its unlimited tariff for individuals by an average of 12% from September 1, Centertelecom by 10%-20% (depending on the region), and North-West Telecom by 3%-12% (the increases are similar to those the companies had originally planned to introduce from April 1). We note that the tariffs’ positive impact on full-year 2008F revenue should be marginal (below 1%), as they would be in effect for just four months. WE REVISE OUR TOP-LINE ESTIMATES FOR THE REGIONAL TELECOMS Old forecast New forecast % chg. In $mn, IFRS 2008F 2009F 2008F 2009F 2008F 2009F North-West Telecom 1,068 1,159 1,058 1,164 -1% 0% Centertelecom 1,465 1,608 1,471 1,635 0% 2% VolgaTelecom 1,339 1,421 1,351 1,487 1% 5% Southern Telecom 884 952 892 977 1% 3% Uralsvyazinform 1,822 2,003 1,765 1,979 -3% -1% Sibirtelecom 1,640 1,779 1,593 1,774 -3% 0% Dalsvyaz 673 717 692 752 3%5% Source: UniCredit Global Research estimates We reduce our EBITDA estimates for the incumbents following their weak performance in 1H08 under RAS. The companies’ non-consolidated RAS EBITDA margins fell 1pp-4pp y- o-y, with four of the seven regional telecoms reporting EBITDA declines of 2%-7% in rubles. Operating expenses (less depreciation) grew 8%-15% y-o-y in rubles, compared to top-line growth of 4%-8%, mainly driven by higher staff costs, interconnect payments and SG&A. Average salaries rose 14%-28% y-o-y in rubles. Overall, the 1H08 RAS results showed the incumbents' limited ability to withstand cost inflation and maintain margins when revenue growth slows to the single digits. Although RAS EBITDA is not directly comparable with IFRS, Bayerische Hypo- und Vereinsbank AG ● UniCredit CAIB Group ● UniCredit Aton page 3 3 28 August 2008 Global Equity Research Fixed-line telecoms we expect the underlying salary and interconnect cost increases to be reflected in the incumbents’ IFRS results for this year. We reduce our 2008F IFRS EBITDA estimates for all the regional telecoms except Dalsvyaz by 5%-15% due to their weak operating performance in 1H08, and now expect EBITDA margins of 28%-35% (previously 32%-36%). 1H08 RAS EBITDA MARGINS FELL 1PP-4PP Y-O-Y, WHEREAS 2007 IFRS MARGINS ROSE 0PP-9PP 10% 8% 6% 4% y 2% chg y-o- 0% -2% -4% -6% NW Telecom Centertelecom Volg aTelecom Southern Uralsvyazinform Sibirtelecom Dalsvyaz Telecom 2007 IFRS EBITDA marg in 1H08 RAS EBITDA margin Source: Company data; UniCredit Global Research estimates WE LOWER OUR 2008F EBITDA ESTIMATES BY 5%-15% FOR SIX OF THE SEVEN REGIONAL TELECOMS EBITDA EBITDA margin Old forecast New forecast % chg. Old forecast New forecast % chg. In $mn, IFRS 2008F 2009F 2008F 2009F 2008F 2009F 2008F 2009F 2008F 2009F 2008F 2009F North-West Telecom 354 408 321 379 -9% -7% 33.1% 35.2% 30.3% 32.6% -2.8pp -2.6pp Centertelecom 492 562 449 532 -9% -5% 33.6% 35.0% 30.6% 32.5% -3.0pp -2.4pp VolgaTelecom 465 501 443 511 -5% 2% 34.7% 35.3% 32.8% 34.4% -2.0pp -0.9pp Southern Telecom 280 315 253 310 -10% -2% 31.7% 33.1% 28.3% 31.7% -3.3pp -1.4pp Uralsvyazinform 612 701 523 646 -15% -8% 33.6% 35.0% 29.6% 32.6% -3.9pp -2.4pp Sibirtelecom 548 615 488 575 -11% -7% 33.4% 34.6% 30.7% 32.4% -2.8pp -2.2pp Dalsvyaz 239 263 240 261 1% -1% 35.5% 36.7% 34.7% 34.8% -0.8pp -1.9pp Source: UniCredit Global Research estimates We raise our capex projections for acquisitions this year to reflect the regional telecoms’ spending on minority stakes in Sistemy gibridnoy pechati (Hybrid Print Systems), which is to handle the printing and mailing to subscribers of telecom service bills for the regional telecoms and Rostelecom.
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