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UAV Pembroke Grenville Report Final University of Plymouth PEARL https://pearl.plymouth.ac.uk 01 University of Plymouth Research Outputs University of Plymouth Research Outputs 2021-04-01 Design in Engineering: An Evaluation of Civilian and Military Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Platforms, Considering Smart Sensing with Ethical Design to Embody Mitigation Against Asymmetric Hostile Actor Exploitation Lavers, C http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/17029 All content in PEARL is protected by copyright law. Author manuscripts are made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the details provided on the item record or document. In the absence of an open licence (e.g. Creative Commons), permissions for further reuse of content should be sought from the publisher or author. Design in Engineering: An Evaluation of Civilian and Military Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Platforms, Considering Smart Sensing with Ethical Design to Embody Mitigation Against Asymmetric Hostile Actor Exploitation 1 Anonymous: Sir Richard Grenville, unknown artist, a version at the National Maritime museum (Royal Museums Greenwich. “Never give-up, never surrender.” Captain J Nesmith. © Christopher Ralph Lavers 2021. [email protected] 2 THANKS Firstly I would like to mention Captain JRA Woodard ADC RN, BRNC, and Professor Alan Myers, Director of Studies BRNC, without whose support the initial application to CCW, and the project’s entire enterprise, would have foundered at the start. I would also like to thank Professor Greaves, on behalf of Plymouth University’s Faculty of Science and Engineering, for their financial support in this project. I am extremely grateful to Dr Rob Johnson, and the whole team at the Changing Character of War Centre, Pembroke College, Oxford, for the opportunities, and access to military related-resources critical to this academic engagement. Dr Johnson’s help enabled me to progress much farther than I had anticipated in my passage from a scientific world-view to one embracing strategic, political, and international affairs. Face to face, on-line meetings, conversation, and emails with several of the other Fellows had their part to play, and I would particularly wish to thank Mark Sutherland for an introduction to military training, Will (Foreign Office) for terrorism-related issues, and Al Brown for just really interesting and helpful connection! At Pembroke I could not have done without the college IT and SALTO support afforded from Mrs Liz Robson, and during CV-19 visits live conversation! I am also indebted to Laura Cracknell in the McGowin library for help navigating the college library- I was noisy once. The difficulties of conducting this project during CV-19 were mitigated by the beautiful college quad environment, conversations with Richard the gardener, frequent trips to Farthings Café, and when necessary visits to the George and Danvers round the corner. My thanks again to One and All. 11 The words of the wise are like goads, their collected sayings like firmly embedded nails—given by one shepherd. 12 Be warned, my son, of anything in addition to them. Of making many books there is no end, and much study wearies the body. Ecclesiastes 12:11-13 New International Version. 3 4 OVERVIEW AND RATIONALE FOR THIS WORK This report is written in part-fulfilment of personal output criteria for the Visiting Research Fellowship (Sir Richard Grenville Fellowship) at the Changing Character of War Centre, Pembroke College, Oxford, and the Centre for Sea Power and Strategy, Britannia Royal Naval College, Plymouth University at BRNC, Dartmouth. This was my first sabbatical since joining BRNC in 1993, and has proven extremely valuable, providing opportunity to focus on military UAV platform design and countermeasures to support my research and current taught platform-related courses. There is a growing existential threat posed by modification of civilian Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) or ‘drones’ by hostile actors in society, be they disrupted civilian air flights at airports, guerrilla operations, terrorist UAV IEDs, or conventional state warfare at the other end of the hostilities spectrum. The Fellowship arose from a concern that has been growing in my mind that readily available small Commercially Off The Shelf (COTS) UAVs could be modified for hostile actor operation in both conventional and urban warfare. In this regard I wanted to examine this proposition, explore and then propose potential platform design safe-guards which might be put into place to mitigate such threats. To support this objective I undertook an in-depth industry wide consultation from ‘production line to user’ across the UAV manufacturing industry, one does not always know the mind of those at the other end, and less so of countermeasures providers. We gain insights into the ‘end to end’ perceptions of manufacturer, user, and from a countermeasures provider’s perspective. Although, countermeasures and drone tactics will be covered elsewhere outside the scope of this report. In this process I have developed interdisciplinary connections across the traditional humanities-science divide. The Fellowship, was spread across academic years 2019-2020 (Trinity term) and 2020-2021 (Michaelmas and Hilary terms). The report was written up during the 2020-2021 Hilary term, and helped me develop an emerging naval and maritime drone syllabus to include ethical exploration from design to operation. I consider possible embodiment of smart features: self-repair, fast- switching liquid crystal optical reflectivity modification, advanced materials, and embedded skin sensors, into the design process. 5 I have a unique position at the boundary between UK and Overseas military and civilian maritime activities. The Fellowship provided opportunity to develop links between Britannia Royal Naval College, the Dartmouth Centre for Sea Power and Strategy, and the Changing Character of War Centre, Pembroke College, Oxford, through which I have established a new professional network of personal connections. The project, report and related research papers were conducted against the challenging backdrop posed by the national response to CV-19. Dr Christopher R Lavers PhD (Exon), BSc (Exon), M. Inst. P, C Phys., PGCE (LTHE), M. ILT., M. IAET., FHEA 6 An Evaluation of Civilian and Military Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Platforms, Considering Smart Sensing with Ethical Design to Embody Mitigation Against Asymmetric Hostile Actor Exploitation Abstract In this report I undertook an extensive analysis of the maritime UAV platform systems sector of a wide range of upstream manufacturing industry and downstream end user stakeholders. I consulted a global range of military and civilian users, to inform discussions around civilian UAV platforms which could be modified by hostile non-state actors, with emphasis on the littoral maritime region. This has strategic relevance to the United Kingdom, being an island-state with over 10,000 miles of coastline, c. 600 ports, and nearly 300 off-shore oil and gas platforms. In addition the UK has 14 dependencies together with a combined EEZ of 2.5 million square miles, the fifth largest in the world. This work followed developed protocols from previous space-based sensors research analyses including Airbus (2016-2017), and a wider evaluation from space-industry responses from a specifically designed ‘questionnaire’ method [1]. I applied this methodology to summarise (2020-2021) UAV research findings, captured from a wide range of participants; I evaluated the perception of key design parameters in multi- dimensional platform design, and results are taken as representative of sector opinion. My analysis covered: the importance of persistency, all-weather, night and day capabilities, and other technical requirements. In 2011 John Vilasenor stated ‘There will be imitators – crude at first – but better and better, and while reasonable people can disagree on how long it will take for terrorists, insurgents and other rogue groups to build or acquire weaponised drones that can be guided by video straight into a target, there is really no dispute that it is a question of when and not if. The day will come when such drones are available to almost anyone who wants them badly enough’ [2]. It is this exploitation possibility I chose to investigate. 7 Nonetheless, I set some boundaries to the discussion, namely to exclude significant discussion of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS), and Artificial Intelligence (AI) which although relevant to military grade drones are not a realistic short or medium term achievable for terrorists, guerillas, or insurgents. I also exclude underwater, and space, although some points relevant to UAVs do apply to one or more of these platform categories, with the greatest constructive alignment between space and air, for pseudo-satellite systems such as Zephyr. I looked to develop a methodology and mechanism to facilitate users and manufacturers to express their thoughts on the embodiment of ‘ethical’ values and design importance into civil platforms, and to integrate their workflows seamlessly through to countermeasures requirements if possible. The concept of Value Sensitive Design (VSD) was identified as the most relevant method for ethical embodiment within civilian UAVs, to evaluate and prevent non-state actors easily modifying platforms to their own drone purposes [3]. I wanted to examine if there was a Work plan that might be mapped out, a process put into place, to provide design safety protocols which limited exploitation. Questions arise
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