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AIR POWER Winter 2013 AIR POWER Journal of Air Power and Space Studies Vol. 8 No. 4, Winter 2013 (October-December) AIR POWER CENTRE FOR AIR POWER STUDIES New Delhi AIR POWER is published quarterly by the Forum for National Security Studies for Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi. Board of Trustees Shri M.K. Rasgotra, former Foreign Secretary and former High Commissioner to the UK Chairman Air Chief Marshal O.P. Mehra, PVSM, former Chief of the Air Staff and former Governor Maharashtra and Rajasthan Air Chief Marshal S.P. Tyagi, PVSM AVSM VM, former Chief of the Air Staff Secretary Defence (Finance), Ministry of Defence, 139 South Block, New Delhi (Ex Officio) Dr. Sanjaya Baru, former Media Advisor to the Prime Minister Captain Ajay Singh, Vice President, Jet Lite Airways, former Deputy Director Air Defence, Air HQ Managing Trustee Air Marshal Vinod Patney, SYSM PVSM AVSM VrC, former Vice Chief of Air Staff and Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies (Ex Officio) AIR POWER Journal welcomes research articles on defence, military affairs and strategy (especially air power and space issues) of contemporary and historical interest. Articles in the Journal reflect the views and conclusions of the authors and not necessarily the opinions or policy of the Centre or any other institution. Editor-in-Chief Air Marshal Vinod Patney, SYSM PVSM AVSM VrC, (Retd) Distributor KW Publishers Pvt. Ltd. All correspondence may be addressed to Editor-in-Chief AIR POWER Arjan Path, Subroto Park, New Delhi 110 010 Telephone: (91.11) 25699131-32 Fax: (91.11) 25682533 e-mail: [email protected] [email protected] website: www.capsindia.org © Centre for Air Power Studies All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system without permission from the Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi ISBN: 81-87966-30-0 AIR POWER Journal is published four times a year and is distributed by KW Publishers Pvt. Ltd. 4676/21, First Floor, Ansari Road, Daryaganj, New Delhi 110 002 Telefax: 23263498 e-mail: [email protected] Printed and Published by Air Marshal Vinod Patney (Retd) on behalf of the Forum for National Security Studies (the Trust running the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi) and Printed by Rajkamal Electric Press, Plot No. 2, Phase IV, HSIIDC, Kundli 131028, Sonepat, Haryana and Published at P-284, Arjan Path, Subroto Park, New Delhi 110 010. Editor: Air Marshal Vinod Patney (Retd). RNI REGN No. DELENG/2006/18450 CONTENTS Vol. 8 No. 4, Winter 2013 (October-December) Editor’s Note v 1. CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES 1 N.N. Vohra 2. NATIONAL SECURITY AND AEROSPACE POWER 19 Arup Raha 3. Using Nuclear Weapons First: “A Hell of an Alternative” 27 Manpreet Sethi 4. India’S Ballistic Missile Defence 43 Arjun Subramanian P 5. ANALYSIS OF PLAAF POTENTIAL AGAINST INDIA 61 Ravinder Chhatwal 6. The Daulat Beg Oldi crisis: Myths, MistaKes and Lessons IN Dealing with China 91 Bhartendu Kumar Singh iii AIR POWER Journal Vol. 8 No. 4, WINTER 2013 (October-December) conTENTS 7. Israel’S Concept of Cumulative Deterrence: Will IT bring peace to the region? 107 Manmohan Bahadur 8. The Dynamics of Civil-Military Relations IN Israel 127 Lungthuiyang Riamei 9. Forming India–Vietnam–Japan Trident 147 Ankit Kumar 10. Myanmar: The New Strategic Pawn IN Asia Pacific? 169 Asha Mary Mathew AIR POWER Journal Vol. 8 No. 4, WINTER 2013 (October-December) iv EDITOR’S NOTE One of our trustees, Shri NN Vohra, Governor of Jammu and Kashmir delivered the National Security lecture at the USI on ‘Civil Military Relations- Challenges and Opportunities’ on 06 Dec 13. The lecture is reproduced as the lead article in this journal. As we approach the end of another year, a number of significant events have taken place that could possibly have an impact on our strategic positioning. The assertiveness displayed by China when in April this year a platoon of PLA set up a camp at Depsang 30 kms south of Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) and 19 kms inside our territory, disturbed the status quo. This led to some 300 of our troops encamping about 300 mtrs away. It was an avoidable face off and although the event did not escalate, and the status quo was restored in three weeks, the question remained as to whether such events could recur. The Border Defence Cooperation Agreement of October 2013, apparently satisfied both India and China, but a lurking suspicion remains that the border incursions could and probably would continue to take place. It will be prudent on our part to remain vigilant and fashion our courses of action beforehand. The assertiveness of China was again displayed when in late Nov 13, it unilaterally declared a new Air Defence Identification Zone(ADIZ) extending some 500kms into the East China Sea. An ADIZ when instituted, requires all aircraft to identify themselves and provide location information as demanded. In this case, the ADIZ overlaps the ADIZ of Japan creating avoidable confusion. No country has the right to impede the movement of aircraft over international waters and the Chinese declaration was provocative. The risk quotient in the area has been ratcheted upwards and many nations must be wondering as to what China will do next. v AIR POWER Journal Vol. 8 No. 4, WINTER 2013 (October-December) EDITOR’S noTE On our Western borders, the belligerence of Pakistan continues with frequent threats either direct or implied. The security situation demands attention. Hence it was but fitting that the Inaugural Address at the Subroto Mukherjee Seminar organized by the Centre in Nov 13 should be delivered by the Vice Chief of Air Staff and Chief of Air Staff designate on ‘National Security and Aerospace Power’. The talk is reproduced in this edition of the journal. The articles on the DBO crisis and PLAAF potential are also relevant. Nuclear issues continue on their upward disturbing trend. The threat of use of nuclear weapons including tactical nuclear weapons by Pakistan, and news of Chinese plans to double their arsenal of missiles that can target USA are indicative of the trend. Two excellent articles on ‘Using Nuclear Weapons First’ and ‘India’s Ballistic Missile Defence’ are also included in this edition. Other articles included are on enlarged national security issues and some of these are written by our young and promising scholars. Happy reading AIR POWER Journal Vol. 8 No. 4, WINTER 2013 (October-December) vi CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES N.N. Vohra I am very happy to have been asked to deliver the USI National Security Lecture 2013 and to speak on “Civil-Military Relations: Opportunities and Challenges”. Before I proceed to reflect on the theme of taday’s lecture, I think it would be useful to have reasonable clarity about what exactly do we have in mind when we use the term “civil-military relations”. I say this because earlier this year, at a seminar held in a defence think-tank at Delhi, a statement was made that “unsatisfactory civil-military relations are having an adverse impact on the functioning of the military in India”. While all those who may be involved in studying military matters would understand that this statement refers to the functioning of the defence apparatus, I feel that a free use of the term “civil and military relations” should be best avoided as it has the potential of causing altogether unfounded doubts and suspicions in the minds of millions of people in India. Our armed forces, comprising the army, navy and air force, have a strength of about 14 lakh personnel and we have over 27 lakh ex-Servicemen. If the families of our serving and retired officers and men are also taken into account, we have more than two crore people who enjoy the trust Shri N.N. Vohra, presently Governor, Jammu and Kashmirm has formerly been Defence Production Secretary, Defence Secretary, Home Secretary and Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister. The lecture was delivered at USI on December 6, 2013 as the Annual National Security Lecture. Reproduced with the concurrence of USI. 1 AIR POWER Journal Vol. 8 No. 4, WINTER 2013 (October-December) CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES and affection of all the people of our country. I would, therefore, stress the importance of ensuring against there being any doubt whatsoever that over a billion people of our country have a very warm relationship with all our men in uniform. To ensure against any unfounded misgivings being created about this important relationship, I feel that our strategic analysts and commentators may, instead of using the term “civil-military relations”, comment directly on the functioning of the defence management apparatus and say whatever they wish to say. I shall now speak briefly about yet another facet of the civil-military interface which relates to the duty which the army has been discharging, ever since 1947, of providing aid to the civil authority and supporting the affected states in combating insurgency and terrorism. Experience in the past over six decades has shown that whenever any state government faces difficulty in dealing with an existing or emerging serious law and order situation, it approaches the Union Home Ministry, seeking the deployment of Central Police Forces (CPFs) to assist the state police in restoring normalcy in the disturbed area. Experience has also shown that, in many cases, when it is found that even the police and CPFs together would not be able to handle a given disorder, the army has invariably been called upon to provide the required support.
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